Apr 16, 2015
krisg81 Pure speculation of course. Here is why I believe a new performance variant will be announced on or slightly before April 30th:
- Recent discontinuation of 60D for larger battery 70D, making minimum EPA range 240 miles. Flagship P85D only slightly higher at 253 miles, but large price gap.
- Elon recently told a celebrity that "Maybe the Model S can get there" in reference to a 0-60 time in 2.8s. He didn't say the P85D, he said the Model S. The performance inverter update didn't make any noticeable difference, and it seems the 85kW battery is the bottleneck for any potential performance enhancement via OTA update.
- We know that the current P85D is rated at 691HP, but actual inverter power logs show maximum motor power is 400-411kW, which is around 550-575HP. 691HP would be roughly 515kW. 85kW battery likely is unable to supply the car with enough juice for full advertised horsepower.
- Elon stated "Maybe it would be a good warm up act to the April 30 event" when mentioning that the Model S can "Maybe get there" (2.8 second 0-60). Therefore I believe the P100D or P105D will be announced, effectively killing and dealing a blow to the P85D after only 5 months from the first delivery of the P85D.
With that said, I truly think it would have been best for Elon to skip the P85D altogether, and just have waited to fully announce and release the P100D/P105D. A model that was hyped so badly that could be wiped out in 5 months and leave people hanging who spent $120K+ is NOT cool if he know that A) The 85kW battery was not powerful enough to deliver the 691HP that was advertised and B) Elon knew a bigger battery/more powerful version was to be announced only 5 months later. Why even release the P85D if that was right around the corner, half way through the 2015 model year?
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Apr 16, 2015
anxman I believe the 4/30 event is for the Tesla home battery product.�
Apr 16, 2015
FLDarren Because he knew thousands of people would buy it. Simple.
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Apr 16, 2015
cbin97 As a 1 month old P85D owner if the 100/105D came out anytime this year it would really upset me. I waited a long time for the P85D thinking I was going to get the King of the run.�
Apr 16, 2015
anxman Yeah, agreed. Many of us bought the P85D to own the halo car in the Tesla suite.
The P85D is already filling the product area at the top of the market where Mercedes S-Class, Maserati, Porsche Panamera competes. To introduce another product in this price point would make no sense.�
Apr 16, 2015
AMPUP Then you would know how us P85+ owners feel. P1XXD is inevitable....�
Apr 16, 2015
justaddsun I think, if anything, Elon would show at the event that the 2.8s Model S exists and may even be available in limited quantities, but it might end up like battery swapping did - possible but not really present. The main announcement is home storage as already stated above. I agree that he would alienate more than a few P85D die-hards with a P100D announcement then.�
Apr 16, 2015
stevej119 Except that it might make sense that a new battery is coming with the introduction of the X. Many have speculated that Tesla will not release the X with a lower mileage rating than the current S, which it would likely have with the 85kwh battery. The logical assumption would be that a bigger battery will become available when the X finally hits the design studio.�
Apr 16, 2015
AmpedRealtor All of you P85D owners can cry me a river! lol
Your time in the sun is limited and the clock is ticking. A bigger, badder, faster Tesla is around the corner. You'll be top dogs for about a year, if that. Welcome to owning a Tesla.�
Apr 16, 2015
gregincal Why indeed? You can reverse this logic to say that since they did release the P85D it was because your imaginary soon to be released car does not exist.�
Apr 16, 2015
AmpedRealtor Didn't Tesla alienate P85 and P85+ owners when the P85D was announced? If it was okay then, wouldn't it be okay now?�
Apr 16, 2015
brianman Welcome to the forum. Fair warning: Tesla doesn't tend to worry too much about "unseating" their "top" vehicle, "most popular" vehicle, etc. Technology marches forward.
- - - Updated - - -
While I sympathize, I never thought of the P85+ as a launch forward. An incremental improvement laterally, but not a launch forward like the D.�
Apr 16, 2015
gregincal But to announce the bigger battery now would totally defeat all the carefully built up suspense over the X. If a bigger battery exists, it will be announced with the X.�
Apr 16, 2015
brianman Always a good thing... especially for stockholders.
Well, except maybe the "bigger" part. It's already tricky to park an S in some places.�
Apr 16, 2015
Vger Respectfully, get over it. As the owner of the first Signature P85 in western Canada, I imagined I was buying a "King of the Run" too. The B battery and 120 kW supercharging came within weeks, then the P85+ came out within a year, then autopilot, then the P85D (which I bought for my wife).
Tesla is going to keep sprinting as fast as they can. They innovate and operate on the time-scale of the best of the consumer electronics industry, not like the traditional auto industry.
Like my business mentor once told me-- "If you don't want to get diluted, you have to keep investing in your own company." Owning a Tesla is a bit like that. If you want to be "King of the Run," you have to budget for rapid, sudden, continuous technology improvement, and short trade-in cycles.�
Apr 16, 2015
stevej119 Who said anything about announcing a bigger battery now? I wrote "The logical assumption would be that a bigger battery will become available when the X finally hits the design studio."�
Apr 16, 2015
cbin97 Thanks brianman.
It will always be an issue for Tesla owners because Tesla isn't going to slow down progress to spare some feelings. That very fact is what made me fall in love with the company especially when compared to how slow moving the ICE world is. It just sucks if you pay top dollar for the top car and in less than a year a faster version comes out with more range and most likely not much of a price difference (especially if they discontinue the 85).�
Apr 16, 2015
AmpedRealtor IF Tesla is going to launch a higher capacity battery, it makes sense to do it first with the X. That would allow Tesla to show range comparable to the Model S and avoid some media criticism. A few months later, the larger battery could be incorporated into the S line. By then, everyone will have accepted X range to be adequate.�
Apr 16, 2015
justaddsun Kind of, I was one of them; but the P85D was different enough in that it added speed, AWD, and AP. Us classic owners didn't order the last two (tongue-in-cheek). A P100D just adds speed (and maybe 10 real-world miles), so it's close enough to hurt!
I personally think TM has hit it big in the opposite direction, with the 70D introduction, as well as making the 85D better. @kris is right in saying they could have skipped the P85D altogether because of how good those two cars are in terms of value, tech, and performance. I don't necessarily think you can call it trickle-down technology from the P85D either. This ain't an ICE company.
So far, I suspect the numbers show TM that it's okay to come out with stuff as fast as they can develop it, even if it alienates the early adopters, as long as it continues to capture repeat and new customers. I have not heard of a Tesla owner who has gotten rid of his Model S because it's not the newest/best. We either keep what we have or get the newest/best Model S, lol. The only time that will change is when TM has a true EV rival.�
Apr 16, 2015
cbin97 It really is a different mindset cause as a former Audi owner and almost buyer of the RS7 I would of bought the RS7 knowing that would stay the King for a really long time, because even if an RS8 came out a year later, that isn't the same car. Not like all the iterations of the Model S.
But don't get me wrong, no matter what comes out the smile on my face when behind the wheel won't be any less.�
Apr 16, 2015
evme Didn't Elon say the event is NOT a car product? Why are we guessing at car products? Also pretty sure he also said that there would be no more increases in range or major hardware updates for at least a year.
Last thing to add, Tesla follows model years based on real years. So a Model S P85D made in December is still 2014 model year. So you can say it came out at end of 2014 model year and just in time for 2015 model year, not half way.�
Apr 16, 2015
krisg81 Another point to mention- the Model X is right around the corner now. To get decent range for their Performance/flagship version, it simply cannot have an 85kW battery. That means it would have to utilize a 100-105kW battery pack. Most already assume this, however.
With that said, since the X is near production- those battery packs are likely finalized and ready to go. In order to streamline the Model X release, especially since the X and the S will share the same production line, would be to start transitioning the line to use the new battery packs and all associated hardware that goes with them. That way, when the Model X goes into full production- the Model S will have field tested the new higher capacity battery packs and the production line will already be using them. It makes totally sense for it to happen- announce it April 30th, take orders- delivery first one in the Mid June-Mid July time frame, only a few months before the Model X's hit the line.
I am gonna be pissed but what can I do. I just wish Elon would have skipped the P85D altogether, but he definitely knew what he was doing.. he knew I would want the top dog right now, today- so I bought it.
The guy above me said it perfectly, what if Audi's S7 kept getting faster every few months? Or the BMW M5 or E63 AMG got faster every couple months instead of every few years when they drop a new version? Ultimately, this method of doing business is doing us a disservice and will hurt resale values over the long term. Thing about the Model S 40kW, 60kW, 60D, P85, etc- all of which had significant resale value hits when those models were discontinued.
- - - Updated - - -
Yes we know its NOT a car product, that's assumed as we all know he said that. It's likely a home battery, or something I would love even more- a piece of hardware that can allow you to backfeed power from the Model S battery pack back into your home. Imagine an 85kW battery that you can feed your home in a power outage.. and its already in your garage!
I am specifically referring to his "Maybe it could be a warm up act for April 30th event" when he was discussing on Twitter about the Model S potentially getting to 2.8s 0-60�
Apr 16, 2015
gpetti Exactly. This is not atypical for this forum but this particular thread is more speculative than most. We go from posing a "what if" scenario to why Tesla would bother releasing the P85d given this speculative hypotheses, to people getting annoyed based on the potentially fictitious event, to people getting annoyed at the people getting annoyed...
ok, Now to join in, I think I would personally like to see the better part of a year before being obsoleted, again. I only got 8 months of P85+ time but I didn't buy it on the front end and to be honest I probably wouldn't have upgraded but for the AWD which was originally on my must have list. I've already convinced myself that I don't care about bigger batteries at this point, though if they were upgradable I might upgrade at some point. I'm personally hoping for a Tesla motorcycle. Or an electric boat! Can't wait.�
Apr 16, 2015
sitter_k I'm still waiting for the best computer to come out cuz i'll be really cheesed if i get something and something better comes along.�
Apr 16, 2015
ChadS I definitely agree that replacing a model with an improved model (cheaper, better, or some combination) hits the resale value of the old model. I understand it hurts to buy the latest and greatest, and then see something else you want. I don't mean to dismiss your concerns.
But the resale hit only comes if the new model is an improvement. I think the 40kWh is a great example - its value didn't go down when it was discontinued, it went up; people were selling those for near-60 prices. Because it wasn't replaced with anything better or cheaper. Discontinuing models isn't the problem; improving them is.
Even there, the biggest hit happens when the top dog is unseated - but that only happens once; all cars get upgrades; and resale value doesn't matter until you sell - add them all together, and none of this makes much of a difference unless you resell your Tesla after they have upgraded it but before another manufacturer would have upgraded it (actually even before then; those last few months before a new model comes out are killer). There is some hit to resale values doing business this way, but I don't think it's much different than what happens with gas cars, it's just that the big ouch comes sooner.
More importantly, the better Teslas and EVs get, the more people are going to want one - and Tesla can only scale their assembly line so fast. If EV adoption is like most types of technology, we are likely to hit a point where suddenly everybody wants one, but there is not enough capacity to build them all - then used ones are going to gain value. The best way to get this scenario to happen is to make everybody want an EV, and constantly building better ones and staying in the news until it's clear to even casual observers that EVs are better is the fastest way to make that happen.
I do not think Tesla should change their fast pace of innovation. My Roadster was long ago supplanted as the EV king by a faster, cheaper, more comfortable, 5-to-7-seat, high-tech, Supercharge-capable, AWD Model S. But it is still the same BLAST to drive that it was when I bought it, and I have no regrets at all about buying it. Not to mention I think the lost value is pretty comparable to that of, say, a Porsche 911 Cabrio which retailed for about exactly the same amount. It lost a lot when the Model S came out, but has held pretty well since then. In fact, with Tesla updating old models, it looks like the value is even going up a bit (we'll see for sure after the Roadster 3.0 announcement).�
Apr 16, 2015
wcfinvader Amen to that. Nissan spoke soo much about that but never released it here in the states. We'd love to have one for the Tesla. Never have to fear of blackouts anymore�
Apr 16, 2015
sorka Discontinuing isn't a problem as long as the replacement which is better costs more.
I wouldn't mind the introduction of P100D provided that those of us who just bought the kind of the hill are offered an upgrade to the bigger pack. The almost new packs coming out could be used for warranty replacements.�
Apr 16, 2015
rlang59 Just a point of clarification, Tesla never actually made the 60D.�
Apr 16, 2015
Todd Burch I'm not sure I get this thread.
You have two choices. Pick a car company that innovates more slowly, and have an imaginary sense of improved satisfaction because said car company innovates more slowly. Or, pick a car company that innovates more quickly and increases their performance lead among competitors at a faster rate.
If you pick the former, you're really no better off. Your car still hasn't improved. If you pick the latter, at least you have a sense of brand pride knowing that your car company's vehicle is not only King of the Hill, but just climbed even higher on that hill compared to other car companies.
If you want the best, I get it. That's human nature. Don't we all? If so, be prepared to pay for it, and don't blame the car company for innovating.
Cars are not investments and are the fastest depreciating tangible assets we'll ever own. Expensive cars depreciate even faster. Fact of life. Just enjoy the car. The fact that the P85D was announced before my shiny new P85 was even delivered doesn't make my car any less fun to drive.�
Apr 16, 2015
krisg81 Cool
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Apr 16, 2015
EarlyAdopter So at an event where Tesla will be unveiling a new product that's not a car, you think Tesla will unveil... a new car?
Ooookkkaayy.
I'll just chalk this up along with your other assertions that:
- Gasoline cars can make peak power at any speed...
- A P85D low on charge is slower than a P85...
- The only difference between the P85D and 85D is software...
Seriously, what do you do for a living?�
Apr 16, 2015
SteveG3 the fact that Elon didn't merely comment about 2.8 seconds, but wrote about "Accel g>1.1 means car is literally faster than falling" seems to me suggestive that Elon wasn't merely off the cuff speculating that it would be cool if there one day could be a Tesla that could hit 2.8 seconds too, but rather that he was thinking about an already designed vehicle he is familiar with and some detailed ways he likes to talk about other specs he knows about it ("literally faster than falling"). I don't think a 2.8 second Model S reveal by summer is a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not.
read the tweets in the first post, and you'll see Elon teasing the possibility of a reveal of a Model S that can do 0-60 in 2.8 seconds as a warm up act to the 4/30 product that's not a car event.�
Apr 16, 2015
Gra55h0pper I'm with you. Until then, my Apple IIe serves me well...�
Apr 16, 2015
Andyw2100 Perhaps all the P85Ds and S85Ds were really built with 100kW batteries, but haven't yet been enabled for 100kW operation via software. (There were no real 40kW battery, right? They were 60s, limited by software to 40.)
That would explain the lower horsepower concerns. It would also blow away the concerns about the originally stated range and the actual range. The E packs have different taper rates than the D packs. What else might be different about them?
This could also explain why the S85Ds were able to improve upon their stated 0-60 performance so significantly with the recent firmware update.
How cool would that be if we all suddenly found out we had much more battery power than we thought we did?�
Apr 16, 2015
bonnie 1. Tesla hints about something new and cool.
2. People go wild speculating about what it might be.
3. Tesla announces something new and cool, but people are disappointed because it's not as big as their imaginations.
Rinse & repeat. It's what we do.�
Apr 16, 2015
Andyw2100 Hey, are you implying that speculating that everyone driving a D has a bigger battery than they expected is wild?
As if I didn't know it! I was mainly fanning the flames of wild speculation and imagination. I don't really think we're all going to be thrilled with a crazy announcement on April 30, and thus I won't be disappointed.�
Apr 16, 2015
cdub You guys are all in la la land. Put the pipe down. Put it. Down. Now.�
Apr 16, 2015
krisg81 1) Yes, gasoline cars can be making their peak HP at any speed, it's all dependent on what transmission and gear you are in to maximize peak HP. Unlike the Model S that can only offer peak power under 30MPH, from there it tapers off.
2) It feels slower than a P85 when SOC is low. Not from a dead stop, but when already moving. Confirmed this again with a loaner P85+.
3) Other than website illustrations, there's no physical proof, but of course I could be wrong- who cares? It's called speculation.
What do I do for a living? Does it matter and why do you care, are you going to start asking me for a job like my neighbors already do LOL�
Apr 16, 2015
mhpr262 As long as it allows people to buy the king-of-the-litter, halo, top-dog product it will be cool, because, you know, it's your car that decides who you are.�
Apr 16, 2015
krisg81 I think the kick off to the April 30th event will just be "Oh hey, real quick- performance version gets 100kw battery, now offers 0-60 in 2.8 seconds- here's a quick demo of how many faster it is then those 5 month old P85Ds we sold you"
then goes on to show the home battery system and potential SolarCity collaboration (which spikes SCTY stock to make options players rich) and start tying in SolarCity with Tesla more. I wouldn't be surprised to see SolarCity on the solar canopies they are installing at various superchargers either.
so yes, different product line but with a warmup showing a larger batter pack P car.�
Apr 16, 2015
Matias Elon's tweet spesifically said, that this new product is not a car.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/582581865682350080�
Apr 17, 2015
grahamsimmonds I am sitting here with 5 months to go before my RHD P85D arrives. So I say bring on the P1XXD, Mr Musk. I will cancel and re-order in a second. It may take a little longer to come but time has shown that we English/Australian/Hong Kong men/women are patient.
But somehow I know it ain't gonna happen and this thread's intention is purely to wind a few people up. Gentleman, enjoy your cars. You are incredibly lucky to have them.�
Apr 17, 2015
supratachophobia What this guy said. I don't even like realtors but this one seems to articulate my thoughts well on more than one occasion.�
Apr 17, 2015
wk057 If a P105D comes out.......................................... I'd probably trade in the P85D, not going to lie. lol. I'd be a tad annoyed about it being so soon, and before I even got autopilot functionality I paid for in the P85D, but, whatever. Such is life.
That said, I'd be willing to bet that there is not a P105D (or any other Model with a higher capacity battery) coming out on April 30th. I'd be willing to bet we don't see > 85kWh before the gigafactory. Also, it was said that it's not a car.
I might bet that there could be a significant performance improving update coming for the P85D, though, given that no one has seen power draw near the 691 HP number yet. It would be interesting if such an update ended up not being free and were something like a $2000 activation thing, though. They'd make a fortune since I'm not sure any P85D owner wouldn't do it.
My guess on the 30th will be the stationary storage battery.�
Apr 17, 2015
MarkS22 The home battery is clearly the main focus, but I think we'll see an announcement for a 2.8 second 0-60 P85D.
Forget about all the other speculation and look at the context of the Twitter exchange. Zedd just got a new Tesla, presumably a P85D because he specifically says "3.1 is fast enough for me." To which Elon responds "2.8s is amazing. Sure'd be great if Model S could get there. Maybe it can." Followed by "Maybe a good warm up act for April 30 event." I mean, it's all there. No need to over-think it. Why would Elon publicly engage a brand new (famous) P85D owner with that specific wording if it wasn't going be apply to Zedd's P85D? To tease him that in 30 days, his car will be "replaced?"
Combine that with the recent OTA spec increase on the 85D and it makes sense the P85D could see an OTA upgrade to justify the price difference. If I had to guess, it would might similarly to the new 155mph "passing mode" where you'd be limited in how often you can do the 2.8 0-60 launches. Like some sort of cool-down timer.�
Apr 17, 2015
falconeer Exactly. Well put.
I don't know why @kris is thinking there will be a new model this soon, clearly with the 85D update, and the fact that the P85D is not putting down nearly as much as advertised, the update will likely happen soon. Also, it was promised on the website along with the 155mph limit: we got the speed limit increase, but the power increase will follow IMO.
Yes, a 100kwh+ battery is coming at some point, but not for Model S for at least a year after P85D unveiling.�
Apr 17, 2015
loco I'm guessing stationary storage and no 110kWh.
I read somewhere that they upgrade a few parts every week on the Model S, so even the same model at the same price is better a year later. This will be like smartphones. Obsolete in a year. Today LTE, tomorrow new screen, LED lights, etc.�
Apr 17, 2015
krisg81 If if I told you a couple of weeks ago that the 60kW model was going to be instantly discontinued and replaced with a larger battery and better performing 70D model, you wouldn't have believed me and would have said another model wasn't coming for a while. Guess we'll wait and see.
�
Apr 17, 2015
ScepticMatt The 100 kWh part is not happening, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of a firmware upgrade.
Tesla confirmed via Greencarrepports that the 70D uses more cells, not higher density ones.
2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3)�
Apr 17, 2015
falconeer Not the same. I would have given that theory some consideration, given that the 60kWh has been around for 2.5 years and sales are very low.
P85D has been around for 5 months, and sells very well. There is no need to put out an upgrade this soon.
I'm not suggesting Tesla isn't capable or willing to make changes to their lineup unannounced, what I'm saying is that they won't purposefully come out with a new model to replace the P85D so soon. I'd say earliest time for P100D is Dec. 2015.
Facts:
1) Tesla advertises 691hp.
2) Tesla isn't delivering 691hp (or anywhere close).
3) Tesla promised power update for P85D specifically ("beyond what anyone outside of Tesla has experienced")
4) Tesla has a record of increasing hp limits using software update (85D, P85).
Conclusion:
Tesla will increase hp limit of P85D just like they did to the 85D.
Which theory is more likely in your view?�
Apr 17, 2015
sandpiper Much as I'd like to see a bump in output for the P85D, I'm suspicious that we won't. There are a few reasons why I think this:
1. Technically the car is already 691hp (470 + 221). It may not deliver that but that's also true for every ICE car out there. The advertised HP is usually a technicality and never what hits the ground.
2. At 3.1 seconds it already delivers on-par with what most any 700-ish hp rated car would deliver.
3. With the 85D, they bumped the new small motors from 188 (I think) to 221 by pushing a bit closer to design limits. The front motor in the P85D is already at 221 so they've already pushed that motor. There's nothing much to improve here I expect.
4. The motor in the back is the old P85 motor which was once rated at less that 470 (420ish I think??). They've been playing with this motor/gearbox for 3 years already. I doubt that there's much more to get out of this one.
5. There's speculation that the whole system is battery limited. If so then motor/gearbox is irrelevant. And I doubt that there's a whole lot extra juice in the battery to pull out.
6. The fact that they could only go to 155 MPH for a short period implies that they're concerned about overheat - either in the battery or the motor. If they're releasing updates that have these sorts of time limitations then they're already playing around darn close to the physical limits of the equipment.
And finally.... the 2.8 from Elon's tweet was pretty loose/speculative. I suspect that the car CAN do 2.8 or possibly better. But when you push batteries or machines too hard you start to bump into longevity/fatigue problems. So maybe they can get 2.8 or even better. But that doesn't mean that it's possible to put that capability into a production car that has to last years and several hundred thousand km.
I hope to be proven wrong!�
Apr 17, 2015
aronth5 Enough said.�
Apr 17, 2015
eepic Sorry to be bearer of bad news.. but GCR reports the 70D is because of more batteries and not new cells, unfortunately. Makes a battery greater than 85 kW less likely for the near future 2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3)�
Apr 17, 2015
krisg81 Honestly, as a P85D owner, I really hope what you say here is correct and I am dead wrong, because this is what I hope happens. Unfortunately, I just feel it can't be done without a larger battery.
�
Apr 17, 2015
wk057 The difference between what the P85D is pulling from the battery now (estimated ~410kW?) vs what it would need for 691 HP (~515kW) is ~4.83C vs 6.0C.
Except from my other thread (bolds/underline/italics added for relevancy):
So, IMO it's definitely possible to pull the full amount from the existing battery in short bursts. Tesla would certainly be able to narrow down what a safe short burst would be. They don't have to use a 25% safety margin, which I arbitrarily chose for my above write-up, giving even more potential power.�
Apr 17, 2015
stevej119 Most of the focus here has been on the P85D and why we won't be seeing a new battery because the P85D doesn't need it. What about the Model X? I wasn't suspecting a new battery soon so the P85D drivers can squeeze another 3/10's off their 0-60 times. I was thinking more in terms of the range of Model X. And if the Model X gets a larger battery capacity, so likely will the S.�
Apr 17, 2015
wk057 If they P85D doesn't need a new battery, the Model X doesn't either. $100 says the Model X does not get > 85 kWh battery at launch.�
Apr 17, 2015
stevej119 You are not the guy I'm going to take on with a bet about batteries! In your opinion will they be able to get 270 mile range out of the X to match that of the S85D?�
Apr 17, 2015
wk057 Since the X is basically a Model S with a new upper body, interior, etc.... I don't see why the specs would differ much aside from probably slightly worse aerodynamics. I'd expect to see an EPA rating of 260+ for an X S85D.�
Apr 17, 2015
EarlyAdopter That need not be a new car. We've seen performance improvements on existing cars already through software updates. Perhaps there's more.�
Apr 17, 2015
golfski He said it won't be a car�the Model X is not a car. I am surprised no one thinks it will be the Model X unveiling, possibly with X70 and X100 battery sizes? The only reason I could see them investing any time/money in something other than cars/suv/etc is that they are worried about their automobile business, which isn't a good sign. With the speculation and delays of the Model X to this point, unless you are trying to draw attention away from that, it just doesn't make any sense to work on stationary storage while still not shipping the Model X. The company is called Tesla Motors, right?�
Apr 17, 2015
EarlyAdopter Elon has referred to the Model X as a "car" on numerous occasions, including quarterly earnings calls.
As for your question of "why stationary storage?" This has been discussed extensively over in the investors section of the forum, but it comes down to these two points:
1. The gigafactory will cost Tesla at least $3B. No matter how strong S and X sales are, they'll need more cash. That means either going back out to the capital markets to raise more, which is dilutive to share holders, or introduce a new product line to earn more cash, which is a positive ROI for investors.
2. The gigafactory is scheduled to come online in 2016, but the Model 3 won't be launched until 2017. Can't leave that giant factory idle.�
Apr 17, 2015
SteveG3 Indeed, the 2.8 second tease may have been about an OTA upgrade to P85D's performance, so not necessarily a new car/bigger battery.
That said, the more recent tweet was teasing that maybe there will be something car related (a Model S doing 0-60 in 2.8 seconds) as a warm up to the 4/30 event... so I don't think it makes sense to automatically dismiss any discussion of something related to cars being revealed despite the original tweet about 4/30. Perhaps I misunderstood, but it seemed some earlier posts were ruling out anything related to cars.�
Apr 17, 2015
EarlyAdopter True, we can't rule it out - it's certainly within Tesla's power to launch a new car and no doubt they innovate fast. I would just find it highly unlikely that as a warm up for a new product launch that was announced to not be a car, Tesla would launch a new car.�
Apr 17, 2015
brianman Is this something that might be detectable from a FLIR or other camera while the vehicle is under load (say on a dyno)?
- - - Updated - - -
Concur. A "product launch warmup" for another product launch seems a waste of PR opportunity (i.e. two separate events gets you more media frenzy).
A product feature or improvement definitely fits the bill for a warmup act. Examples that come to mind are acceleration improvements via firmware, announcement of new firmware features like nav enhancements, "finally" pushing features like fetch to customers, etc.�
Apr 17, 2015
wk057 I would say no. The battery casing would easily prevent this.�
Apr 17, 2015
brianman Bummer.�
Apr 17, 2015
krisg81 I think there will be only two initial Model X configurations, with a lower cost one coming later as all the pre-orders will be forced to buy their pricier versions.
Model X85D and Model X100D (or X105D)
That seems to make sense, likely the X85D will get ~240 miles EPA range and 0-60 in 4.9 seconds, and X100/105D would get 265-275 range EPA with a 3.6-3.9 0-60 which would be amazing for a full electric SUV.
"Warm Up Act" could be introduction of Model X specs on the website with those battery configs and an "Oh yah, 100/105kW battery availability on Model S will allow car to go 2.8s 0-60. Now on to the main event and product announcement". This way it wouldn't be a new car model announcement, just revealing new specs on existing Tesla product.
�
Apr 17, 2015
SteveG3 EarlyAdopter, if you care to, you can read the post of mine you replied to again... it was not about launching a new car, but rather that something related to cars is worth considering as a "warmup" to the 4/30 event as Elon has teased this possibility on twitter. Funny enough, I was actually acknowledging your earlier comment that this could be about the existing P85D's improving via a software update.
�
Apr 17, 2015
DougJohnson Gasoline engines make peak power at one specific RPM. Therefore, a gasoline car can make peak power at n speeds where n is the number of gears in the transmission.
-- Doug�
Apr 17, 2015
brianman Welcome to TMC.�
Apr 17, 2015
MorrisonHiker In a few years, every car manufacturer will probably be making BEV or PHEV vehicles. Tesla won't be as unique as it is now. I could easily see them focusing more on battery production in the future as they would be able to supply other car manufacturers with batteries as well. Also, with home stationary storage, there is a huge potential market, especially if they are able to tie it in with solar systems.�
Apr 17, 2015
stevej119 Clearly the primary subject of the event will be the stationary storage system, but you bring up a very good point about the battery sizes. Think about it. If there wasn't currently a Model S with 70kwh and 85kwh battery options, would it make any sense at all to have two battery options for a new product introduction and have them be so close to each other? 70 and 100 makes a lot more sense than 70 and 85. That is why I suspect there will be a larger battery announced with the introduction of the Model X. On the other hand, if wk057 says the 70kwh pack uses the same batteries as the 85kwh pack and there isn't any room to put more batteries in the larger pack, I'll defer to his battery knowledge.
Either way, we'll know when the Model X hits the design studio. Hopefully soon. I sold my 2014 S85 a few days ago to replace it with a car with Autopilot and possibly "D", but now I'm on hold waiting to find out if a larger battery is coming. I really hate going to the gas station every other day again.�
Apr 17, 2015
bonnie Elon doesn't do standalone systems - he does ecosystems. Tesla was never destined to be just a car company. I have no doubt that Elon has one vision & is revealing one piece of the puzzle at a time.
Besides, different engineering teams - working on stationary storage doesn't take away from the Model X reveal when that happens - parallel efforts. Nothing about storage says 'worried about automobile business' to me - in fact, in says 'thinking about a bigger picture'. Personally, I believe that the X and stationary storage will interact, either V2G or more.
As far as revealing the X on April 30th, nah. Right now Tesla is squeezing every PR opportunity dry. I am certain that there will be great lead up to the Model X reveal, building excitement, right to the big day. A surprise reveal would mean they're not getting maximum value from the event. The X reveal will surely be a separate event & I'm guessing we'll see the first few Founder cars delivered at that event.�
Apr 17, 2015
Andyw2100 You know a larger battery is coming. The real question you need the answer to is when.�
Apr 17, 2015
stevej119 You are correct. I should have stated "I'm on hold waiting to find out if a larger battery is coming with the release of the Model X."�
Apr 17, 2015
Uncle Paul Since Elon mentioned that his announcement will not be car related, I believe it will be a spin off of the battery technology.
My prediction is that there will be few model S announcements until the X is revealed. There should be lots of running changes that will be incorporated into the X that is not currently available in the S. Since the S and X will be produced on the same chassis and assembly line, it would make sense that they share as many components as possible. I would expect to see a bunch of changes for both vehicles when they both begin to come down the production line.
Maybe new interiors, new display screens (wide screen instead of vertical). Refreshed suspensions, tire options, colors, seats, audio, etc.�
Apr 17, 2015
invisik I would like then to come out with a 100D with 300+ mile real world range. I think they can do more to convince the high-end family or non-AMG level car buyer it is viable and worth it.
-m�
Apr 17, 2015
JRP3 I'm 99.99% sure it will not be about the X and/or a larger battery.�
Apr 17, 2015
Stoneymonster They don't need additional demand and certainly they don't need to generate more demand while simultaneously constraining supply further.�
Apr 17, 2015
AlMc How about a 'gentlemen's bet': No money, just bragging rights. The X will launch with a bigger battery IF the existing '85' battery can not give at least 250 mile range. If the '85' can give 250 EPA miles then TM will hold off on the >85 until mid 2016 as it works through the backlog of 2 year old reservations.�
Apr 17, 2015
stevej119 I'd be really surprised if they introduced the X with a range of only 250 EPA miles. At 80% charge, that would put you under 200 miles range within a few months. Well, it might not put YOU at under 200 miles that fast, but it would put me there very quickly with the mileage I drive.
I think Tesla will be roasted by the press and the stock will drop if the top mileage Model X has a range 20 miles below the current S85D. I think Elon Musk is far too intelligent to let that happen.�
Apr 18, 2015
vigge50 In the announcement of Tesla Roadster 3.0 it's writtenSo I don't think we will see a bigger battery pack to Model S
Roadster 3.0 | Tesla Motors�
Apr 18, 2015
deonb Again, this isn't a thread about speculation about the April 30th Event (which isn't car related). This is a thread about the April 30th 'Warmup Act' to that event that Elon referred to. See first post.
Maybe Mods can rename this thread to something like: "April 30th Warmup Act SPECULATION" ?�
Apr 18, 2015
stevej119 Near term? Does anyone know what Tesla's definition of "near term" is? The 70D announcement came after a statement not that many months ago saying there would be no major platform changes to the Model S for at least a year, or something like that. I guess it's debatable whether the 70kwh pack is considered a "platform change."�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 Thread title is fine, people just need to improve their reading comprehension :/
Apparently a new firmware was released in the past day, .168, that is the actual 3.1 second performance enhancing update as it states it in the release notes.
I think this may support my theory that the 2.8s 0-60 may only be possible with the larger 100/105kW battery pack- why release that update now when 2.8s is possible, just to release it in a couple weeks? I think the "warm up act" and him discussing how the Model S can get to 2.8s potentially has to be a battery upgrade.
The "warm up act" may even just be him demonstrating the actual 2.8s launch and then saying more details will be later on the battery upgrade. Start the April 30th act discussing a battery upgrade to the Model S and their innovation with battery tech is a perfect segway into discussing a battery for the home.
With the Model X delays I've always thought it was because the actual real world range has been very poor. Elon has even mentioned he'd like the MX to also have towing capabilities, that just isn't happening with an 85kW battery. If deliveries are to start in a few months, that battery pack has to be ready to go right now.�
Apr 18, 2015
Stoneymonster That also sounds like the perfect way to Osborne current sales. It won't happen.�
Apr 18, 2015
stevej119 I agree that there won't be discussion of a "future" battery upgrade, but there may be discussion of a "current" battery upgrade. The discussion will take place when the battery upgrade is ready to go or has already happened, so it doesn't torpedo current sales. There will definitely be a battery upgrade, it's just a question of when. My money is on it being with the release of the specs on the Model X. Here's my new question: If the 85kwh battery option on the Model S is replaced with a 100/105kwh battery, will that be a running change similar to the way Autopilot features were introduced? In other words, will some people with existing 85kwh batteries be surprised to find out upon taking delivery (or maybe even afterwards) that their car has the new battery? Maybe that question should be the topic of a new thread.�
Apr 18, 2015
qwertzy But if the 85kwh batteries were actually 100kwh ones, then why not advertise it at the launch like the 70D?�
Apr 18, 2015
Andyw2100 Just playing devil's advocate here. I don't really think we all have 100kWh batteries in our P85Ds. But...
...If we did, there could be reasons to not advertise it at the launch.
Tesla was already going to sell every P85D it could manufacture. There was no need to increase demand. Think of the marketing hype if they could now come out and say, "Guess what--those cars we've been selling with 85kWh batteries really have 100kWh batteries. That's what we do. We always under-promise and over deliver. When you buy a car from Tesla, you know you'll always get at least what you pay for, but you never know how much more we might give you, as a bonus."
Can you imagine what the press would be like? And what something like this could do for future sales, when Tesla is not production-constrained?
Again, I'm not saying this happened. Just giving one reason why it wouldn't have been a ridiculous idea to not announce at launch.�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 Kind of like what happened with the S60 guys when the S70D was announced? It would probably work the same way if announcing the P100D and discontinuing the P85D.�
Apr 18, 2015
wk057 lol. The P85D does NOT have a 100kWh battery, software limited or otherwise.
Pack voltages through a 0-100% supercharge disprove this.�
Apr 18, 2015
stevej119 Ok... probably going to get in trouble for saying this, but for those of you with P85D's out there... It's not always about YOU! There are a lot of other current and future owner's of 85kwh battery cars, and they are also affected when the battery capacity changes.
Regarding how happy everyone would be to find out that somewhere along the line the battery changed from 85kwh to 100kwh but they just didn't tell us, consider also that there would be a date prior to which the cars produced really did have 85kwh batteries. Those owners would not be happy, just as the pre-autopilot owners weren't happy.
That, plus what wk057 said. Although I assume that's from testing his own P85D. I suppose it's possible the battery could have changed between 12/22/2014 and now?�
Apr 18, 2015
Andyw2100 There's a pretty big distinction there. The switch to autopilot was completely arbitrary. Ask breser about that. If his car had been built a day or two later, he would have had autopilot hardware. Yet Tesla did that anyway.
In the scenario that I presented THAT I DON'T BELIEVE HAPPENED it would have been an entire model getting the upgraded battery. That's very different.
Of note is that the P85Ds did, in fact, get a new version of the 85kWh battery--the E. That's just what Tesla does.�
Apr 18, 2015
stevej119 Do other versions (85, 85D) produced after the P85D introduction not have the E battery?
Also, unfortunately "tone" doesn't come across when typing. I meant the "It's not always about YOU!" to be humorous. As I just re-read it, I can see where it might not come across that way. No offense intenteded.�
Apr 18, 2015
MarcG I would actually be happy just getting closer to the advertised 85 kWh capacity to begin with.
During my longest drive so far which I did from 100% SoC to 0.8% (2 miles remaining), the car reported only 75.2 kWh were used.
I understand it's important not to completely drain a Li-Ion battery, but keeping over 10% of total capacity as "reserve" is a lot.
In my humble opinion, it would be better if Tesla advertised the 85 kWh pack as really being 75 or 80 kWh, since that's all we really get to use anyway...�
Apr 18, 2015
AmpedRealtor The chances are much higher that monkeys will fly out of my butt than the chances that Tesla has been hiding 15 kWh of battery capacity from owners.�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 The idea some of us are already sitting on larger 100kW+ batteries is a bit crazy guys. There's no way Tesla would have slipped us more for our money when it comes to a battery, and not brag about it and announce a 100kW+ battery to the world.
with that said, when the new battery is actually announced they will find a way to make money off it. By 2020, the fully loaded P model of the Model S will likely reach $175,000 - in my opinion. That would be on par with a fully loaded S63 AMG and Porsche Panamera Turbo.�
Apr 18, 2015
brianman I don't buy this conclusion. Tesla's track record has shown that they have a general ballpark for the top Model S configuration. I don't think we'll ever see a "general consumer"* Model S over US$140K.
* "TV role" Model S I put in a different category.�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 That's quite a bold claim, especially one that does not account for inflation. But it's your opinion, and you are entitled to it of
course.�
Apr 18, 2015
brianman You make a good point about inflation. I probably should have said "today's dollars". Regardless, I'll stand by what I said.�
Apr 18, 2015
Fiver To get the thread back on topic: I expect the April 30th event to only be about home battery packs. No mention of Tesla vehicles at all. Although I allow that there could a tie in that the home battery packs will be made partially from reclaimed/refurbished auto battery units. Just because a entire 85 pack doesn't work in a car any more (for whatever reason) doesn't mean parts of it couldn't work just fine when rebuilt into a home pack. I expect it to be 10-20KW similar to what is already known to be under testing in the wild. Expansion into home inverters etc probably as well. As more and more people add solar to their roof, why not buy equipment from a known brand like Tesla.
Batteries will be a huge part of the business (more then cars) in 10 years.�
Apr 18, 2015
deonb That's not the topic of this thread. (I complained about the confusing title before). Please re-read the first post.�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 I think people are commenting on the title without reading the original post. Kind of reminds me of headlines/subjects posted on Facebook, and people commenting before even clicking/reading the article.�
Apr 18, 2015
Stoneymonster You said: "The "warm up act" may even just be him demonstrating the actual 2.8s launch and then saying more details will be later on the battery upgrade."
That's a pre-announcement and would dry up sales.�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 True, I was just thinking out loud. But really, look how they handled the 70D announcement with no regard of existing S60 orders- same deal, I don't think it matters to them really, they'll sell everything they can make regardless.�
Apr 18, 2015
Krugerrand I always thought it was a jar of pickles, but monkeys work. :biggrin:�
Apr 18, 2015
Stoneymonster The difference is that nobody is going to hold off on an order based on the 70D announcement. If they say vaguely, "hey we're gonna update the battery sometime soon!" I'd bet reservations plummet until the announcement. The Tesla M.O. seems to be "new car, order now!" without regard to previous orders. On the one hand, annoying! On the other, it keeps demand high because there's never a model year pause or runup to expected refresh. You never know what's coming! Ugh.�
Apr 18, 2015
stevej119 I believe you are correct. They will make the announcement when the update is available to order, whatever it is. A bigger batter is coming. The question is when. To me it seems likely that Model X reveal will be when we'll see a bigger battery. As I said before, quoting many who said it before me, it doesn't seem likely that the X will be released with a lower mileage cap than the current S.
People can talk about why they would or wouldn't come out with a new battery soon because the P85D this or the P85D that, but it's not about the P85D. It's about the Model X. That's what will drive the introduction of a larger battery. IMHO, of course.�
Apr 18, 2015
cwerdna And, the OP has his units mixed up in the title and the OP.
kW and kWh are very different metrics. It's the same as confusing gallons with horsepower. Think of kW = horsepower, kWh = gallons.
(BTW, 1 hp = ~0.746 kW. And, Compare Electric Vehicles says 1 gallon of gasoline=33.7 kWh.)�
Apr 18, 2015
Stoneymonster Amazing what these cars can do with the equivalent of 2.5 gallons of gas.�
Apr 18, 2015
SteveG3 I don't believe there are secret 100s out there, but here's why I think the 70D may have been rolled out by itself, with an 85 kWh replacement delayed a few months:
The 60 kWh version of the car was a small fraction of Model S orders (IIRC Tesla has said 10% or less, Consumer Reports said 2%). Thus, the introduction of the 70D as a 60 replacement was going to ruffle the feathers of a rather small group (compared to 85s) of new owners and those with cars in the process of being built and shipped. With planning Tesla could have minimized that further by timing the 70D introduction to coincide with a time 85, 85D and P85D comprised all of recent and current production (i.e. a time they'd not produced 60s for a couple of months, so very few would have just gotten one delivered).
Similarly, it's possible that Tesla is building it's order book of 70Ds now so that if/when a larger battery replaces the various 85s, they can be in a period of predominantly 70D production and cars in transit. For example, if a larger battery is introduced on June 30th (available for order, or change in reservation that day), and Tesla has 6 weeks (~6K) worth of 70D orders to fill, they could have shut down production of 85s 6 weeks earlier in Mid-May in favor of strictly producing 70Ds, so essentially no 85s are in production when a bigger battery is introduced, and as small a number as possible are in transit. This would minimize abandoned/refused 85s, and somewhat minimize the amount of people who would have gotten their new 85s within a few weeks of such a potential new battery introduction. Moreover, those who did recently take delivery of any type of 85 would not be so shocked (and hopefully somewhat less irritated) to hear of a 100 or 105 kWh version coming out given that the 70D rolled out 3 months earlier.
As others have written here, I doubt Tesla will announce a larger pack than the 85s for the S, until they are ready to start making them. I doubt that this will be so in the next couple of weeks, but I'm cautiously optimistic for something this summer (I agree with others that the Model X is very likely to have a bigger pack, and we expect to hear X details by some point in the summer).�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 If you guys don't think there will be a larger battery pack version of the MS announced as a warm up to the 4/30 event, then tell me this- what's your opinion/theory about what Elon meant about a "2.8s Model S being a possibly warm up act to the April 30th event" ?
does this mean you think the P85D is capable of 0-60 in 2.8s with a simple software update then, just days after the 3.1 update? Clearly if you don't think there will be a battery pack update then what do you think he meant and what could the "warm act up to the 4/30 event" mean?
to get the car down to 2.8s from 3.1 is a huge difference. It would take much more power and even possibly a better wheel / tire combo.
if not a bigger battery pack, how about a P85D+ upgrade package. Maybe it comes with a modded inverter and/or better suspension and wheel/tire setup. That's the only thing other than a new battery pack that could get it to 2.8s IMO, and announcing a "+" option to the current P85D is a real possibility other than a newer, larger battery.�
Apr 18, 2015
Stoneymonster Well, Elon has a habit of saying all kinds of things.... Sometimes as a prod to engineering.�
Apr 18, 2015
dsm363 mod note: Thanks. Fixed title.�
Apr 18, 2015
SteveG3 I do think there's some chance the P85D could get to 2.8s via a software update. If that's not possible, yes, it would seem a bigger battery coming soon is tipped off by the tweet. Either way, Elon may have jumped ahead of Tesla Motors by writing that tweet. Wasn't it removed? It may be that 4/30 was within the timeframe that was possible for it to happen with the existing or a new battery, but it was not a timeframe TM was ready to commit to, and someone convinced Elon of this which prompted him to delete the tweet.�
Apr 18, 2015
krisg81 Ok, I'll buy that- as Elon has a habit of speaking out loud and tweeting it, just to remove it later. I hope there's something that addresses the 2.8s claim.
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Apr 18, 2015
SteveG3 krisg81, my gut is that the tweet (notwithstanding it's removal) means it's at least 80% likely we hear about a 2.8 Model S by the fall... I think you'll get your wish�
Apr 18, 2015
Jhall118 As someone who is about to buy a P85D, I really am irked by this entire thing.
If 2.8 is possible with just a bigger battery, cool. But I have a feeling that it's going to require beefier wiring and all kind of other small things. It makes me really anxious to order, but I need to order soon because of the sales tax exemption.
Sucks. This should be incredibly exciting, but I keep being nagged by the thought that I "barely" miss the cutoff. 120k is a LOT of money to me, but coming from a P85, I literally can't drive anything else, and I need a car to replace my wrecked Tesla
There's a huge difference knowing that in a few years I can upgrade to a 100 KW battery, versus just missing out altogether. The appeal of the Model S has always been the "constant improvements" of the car that I can take advantage of, but thus far nothing has really been further from the truth.�
Apr 18, 2015
Andyw2100 I think MarkS22 made great points in this post: April 30th Event SPECULATION: 100kWh Battery + 2.8s 0-60 Model S to be announced? - Page 5
He wrote:
I agree with that--specifically the part about what Musk tweeted to Zedd, and that he wouldn't have been talking about the model, but rather the car Zedd just bought.
There's going to be a larger battery available at some point, but I don't think it's going to be necessary to get to the 2.8 second 0-60 time Musk tweeted about.�
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