Thứ Hai, 23 tháng 1, 2017

When will Tesla answer all of our questions about the X - Official launch speculation part 1

  • Sep 17, 2015
    simplejack
    So, Tesla confirmed there is no "event" to attend and since everyone was speculating that the X would be launched when the Founders received theirs, when do you think we will get some official communication from Tesla about the X?

    I'm still hoping that they will release all the details on Sept 29th, but that hope is based on what I want them to do, not on any actual information they have provided.

    Will there actually be a launch, or do you think they will just update the website incrementally? I know this sounds ludicrous, but with the way Tesla handles communication I'm starting to believe this is a possibility.

    My official prediction is once they get the supplier issues figured out, we will get an official launch. I expect this will be sometime in the November timeframe.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    GreenT
    Where'd you read this?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Lyon
    I don't know where OP read it but I've had email correspondence with Tesla on this topic and that's the word I was given as well.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    I think we are witnessing the weirdest product launch in the history of... well, everything.
    Here is a company that has been teasing about this amazing product for 3 years now, finally is about to start delivering it, but has absolutely no communication on it. Remember, we started finding out about Sigs configuring via TMC screenshots, there was no tweet, no press event and apparently even though they will delivery it to all Founders on the same day, they don't even make that a public event. Also, we have customers who have waited for years, with pre orders and 40 grand committed, configuring on very little information and CGI screenshots not even seeing the front of the final production car!
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    CarlK
    This is Tesla. It has done many weirdest things before like power a car without using fossil fuel, put an iPad in a car to do all controls, update your car without physically access it, sell cars without a dealership, never do an advertisement,... So what's wrong if it does not do new product introduction the same way as Toyota or BMW does? Nothing's wrong with it because Tesla can. But more seriously Toyota or BMW could not pay millions of dollars to get the publicity from generated for the suspense.

    BTW are you a sig reservation holder and what's your reservation number?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    SBenson
    I get the feeling this entire fiasco is due to rushing to meet said target dates. My impression is that the car is not ready (or the company is not ready to deliver the car) - at least the way they intended to.

    Seems like the Sep 29 deliveries are just a desperate attempt to say that they started deliveries as promised (deliveries to begin late q3).

    Last I know from reading these threads, Bonnie still doesn't know when she will get her car. Nor anyone seems to know when we will know all about the car.

    My pet theory (entirely speculative) is that some supplier is trying to take Tesla for a ride, essentially blackmailing/exploiting Tesla's circumstances. Tesla is trying not to budge.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Merrill
    Yes, there is no launch or reveal event because Tesla is not ready to launch the Model X.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    oh no my friend, I am about 100k short of being a sig reservation holder. :tongue: But even if i wasn't, i don't like buying without trying... I would want to sit in the car first, drive it around a bit before pushing the button on configuration.

    Back on topic, i just don't feel like this falls under the "we do things differently" category. They made pure EVs, full touchscreen control, supercharging, OTA updates because they said: it is crazy we have the technology to do this, it is to the benefit of the consumer/planet, but no one does it. I don't see any "mission" or upside in this secrecy.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Lyon
    One significant problem with Tesla launching a car like anyone else is that they don't just produce vehicles for dealer stock and then send them out. They need to build cars to customer specs from the beginning so they're going to need to get those specs. Even if the first cars were marketing cars, they would still need to be working on the next orders even as the first cars were being completed. Model X is going to be different than Model S; I think they're going to be able to ramp production faster this time.

    The end result is this cluster-**** of a launch.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    simplejack

    If Tesla had Apple's cash pile and distribution network, your comparison would be valid. But they don't. They are raising money through debt and selling stock and are burning massive amounts of cash at the same time trying to build out a distribution network that can handle 5-10X volume in the next 3-5 years. Sure, they are building revolutionary products, but key to building them is SELLING THEM and right now Tesla needs sales alot more than most on TMC think they do. They have a 3-4 month backlog for a 100k SUV that they expect to sell 55-60k a year. This isn't a segment that lacks quality competition, unless BEV is the only criteria you use.

    Not releasing any information about a product costing $100k+ that you expect to line up 25-30k more customers for in 2016 is pretty absurd IMO.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Matias
    I believe this is the case. Car is not ready for prime time.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Svenssons
    You can't sell cars you do not have. The key to building the cars is not selling them, this might be true to older car companies with lots of factories and expensive over head cost. For Tesla the key to selling them is to be able to build them.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    DougH
    I hope they do an event, it was pretty cool seeing people get their cars. Don't we all want to see Bonnie on youtube getting her X?...ins't she #2?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    MrBoylan
    Only Founders on September 29th. Bonnie is a Signature. I don't believe she has a confirmed delivery date yet, though I could be mistaken. And I'm not sure if any of the Founders are active forum members.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Merrill
    I think all of us want an event as well as Tesla, why would you miss out on a hugh marketing opportunity. They just are not ready to be able to deliver cars in any volume, this is the only thing that makes sense as to why they are not doing a reveal and delivery event. I think the 29th is being done so they can say they delivered cars as promised. Personally I can wait to see the real car, but cannot stand all the speculation that is going to continue until the above happens.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    aesculus
    I am starting to cool to the fact that the car is not ready either. I sensed this might happen and so I waited a long time to put my reservation in (~15,500).

    For decades in the computer business we always joked that you should never consider a product until it was on it's 3rd major release: Windows 3, iPhone 3, ...

    With the move to more of a beta delivery model (I think that's what the first release will be - sorry sigs :redface:) and continuous improvements, its hard now to figure out when version 3 really happens. But it will be clear when it does.

    I have the luxury of waiting this out since I think I still have 2+ years of life in my current ICE SUV left.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    DougH
    Gotcha
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    simplejack
    Tesla is expecting to sell between 80-90k vehicles next year. Conservatively that is about 45k Xs they need to deliver in 2016. The current reservation list will roughly cover 20k of those, and the rest need to be net new SALES. Selling an additional 25K Model Xs in the next 12 months will not be as simple as many on here like to believe.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    SBenson
    That's what analysts are expecting. Tesla hasn't released guidance for next year. Did Elon or someone else say 80-90k anywhere? Just asking because I missed it if it happened.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    dirkhh
    Well, there are the people who bought a P85D in late fall 2014 with next gen seats and autopilot. They got their seats six months after they got the car. And they still have no full autopilot.

    Here's my cynical take on the Model X "launch":
    It seems to me that Founders cars are the early alphas.
    In a few months we'll get the first beta cars (called "Signature").
    At some point next year they will start shipping V1.0 of this car to the first few thousand P reservation holders.
    Then mid next year there will be several significant HW changes, different battery technology with faster supercharging, new HW required to get /actual/ working AP... and V2.0 will be out. Of course without any actual announcement, without an organized cut-off / communication, and without a way to retrofit. Early customers who complain will be labeled as whiners and be told to shut up because they are driving the most amazing car in the world...

    Sound familiar to anyone?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    vandacca
    At some point Tesla has to decide the Model-X is ready for production (not necessarily "finished") and begin shipping it. In trying to step into Elon's shoes for a moment, I would think that while they do ship the first Model-X in a couple of weeks, they are far from reaching the finish line. I'm sure they have a lot of issues that still need to be worked out, along with new ones they find along the way (probably mainly with the production line).

    Therefore, there is a lot of work still ahead and having a celebratory event may not feel right at this time. Of course, from an end-user perspective, it's seems like a big deal and it feels like we should be celebrating.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    simplejack
    The 80-90k was my calculation based on the Q2 shareholder letter they sent that said in the Looking ahead to next year section - "steady state demand and production of 1600-1800 per week". This comes after the discussion of Q4 ramp and the impact of lower deliveries in 2015.

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/512053550x0x843991/DCDCCFDA-0709-405B-931A-B2F48A224CE8/Tesla_Q2_2015_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    crmatson
    I believe EM mentioned 50% year-over-year growth for the foreseeable future.
    With guidance of 55k this year, 75-80k would be expected next year.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    CarlK
    That is true. The same as people have to get used to things Tesla do because they don't have model year designation and will release new features whenever they are ready. There is no problem, and actually benefits of this (you get upgrades sooner without having to wait till next year), long as everyone understands what they expect. People who do not like the idea of buying a car without first test drive really don't need to put an early reservation.

    See my answer above. People who want to test drive before purchase absolutely can have a chance to do it. They just have to wait until after the unveil and when test vehicle is available. Isn't that what one needs to do when buying any cars?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    walla2
    Never heard of anything like this. Not once. More seriously, it worked the 1st and 2nd times. Why not go for a third?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    ecarfan
    [emoji3]. Thanks for the chuckle, and well said. Before the Roadster and Model S launch there was a lot of complaining and criticism. Then the cars go into production and win accolades and sell well (in fact Model S sales have far exceeded Elon's expectations). I predict the same scenario for the Model X.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    AnOutsider
    Can't +rep you again so soon. Stop making sense damnit.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    schonelucht
    The last shareholder letter stated that they expect to deliver between 1600 and 1800 cars per week next year. In the conference call they clarified this to be the average rate over the year with some weeks going up to possibly 2000 to compensate for things like holiday season and yearly factory shutdown for retooling and upgrades.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    andrewket
    I unfortunately am coming to the same conclusion (or should I say, best guess), except for your last statement. I doubt a supplier is blackmailing/exploiting them. I think it's likely the rumor is true that supply constraints on the second row are likely to blame. And perhaps there was a more complicated design that folds, bends, shrinks, beams up to the enterprise that Tesla has now decided to forgo, at least for now. This is the only reason I can imagine why Tesla wouldn't do a formal announcement, show off the car, give us all the specs, and start collecting additional deposits. They need to be able to say "we started shipping on 9/29". It's unfortunate that Tesla has found themselves in this position.

    ... but I remain hopeful that Tesla pulls a rabbit out of their proverbial hat.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    ZachShahan
    Hmm, decent theory. Would suck if that's the case.

    Generally, though, my hunch is also that everything is not as expected simply due to a rush and challenges getting the X out in Q3... technically, if not in decent numbers.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    sigurdi
    If I bought a 2016 Model (any other Brand than Tesla) I know it would be a upgraded 2017 Model before summer of 2016.
    My 2016 model will get No upgrades, no new functions, and only software fixes (DVD or USB drive at the dealer) if it was really bad problems.
    With Tesla software upgrades is still happening for old cars (2013 model. :)

    I know upgraded batteries, seats, software, hardware will arrive, next year to he year after....
    I rather drive a model X while waiting than my old car, and when the time is right see if I consider a uppgrade.
    I still have a really old computer from 2011 and a IPhone 4S.
    Before I changed every two years.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    hpham007
    This is the recurring theme on this board. I remember the thread about the towing capacity. Before the details were known, someone from Tesla claimed that the X will be capable of towing 10,000 pounds. When some expressed disappointment that in reality, it could only tow 5000 pounds, half the members called the other half stupid for believing something like the X could ever tow 10,000 pounds. Shame on them for believing what an employee from Tesla said.

    :smile:
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    NigelM
    Seems to me there's been a recurring theme lately of people without cars or even reservations coming onto this forum to tell us how bad the Model X is or how terrible the company is.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Kbra

    +1.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    MrBoylan
    FUD, FUD, FUD FUD! Gotta do something to cover their shorts!
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    ZachShahan
    If I'm not mistaken, the Tesla employee said it would have Class 3 towing capability, which I think it does. Many of us found info or articles referencing info that Class 3 towing capability = nearly 10,000 pounds, but it is apparently much more nuanced than that, and the X does indeed have what is categorized as Class 3 towing capability.

    This is a little outside my area of expertise, and my memory on this may be foggy, but wanted to chime in to add a bit more context and a correction to your comment.

    Edit: seems my memory was foggy and he did say "close to" 10,000 lbs: Chen says; �This vehicle will have Class III towing capability. That means over 5,000 pounds, actually close to 10,000 pounds of towing capability.�

    Tesla Model X Towing Capacity "Close to 10,000 Pounds� - Gas 2
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    GreenT
    I'm missing the plot here. If members here are lining up for, VIN 2 etc. , then what numbers do Founders get?
    Tesla not doing a launch party? I am in disbelief.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    CarlK
    It's very funny that people with early sig reservation are not complaining but people who don't are complaining the hardest.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    WentOffGrid
    +X to that, & no complaints-- just glad the deliveries are near! :biggrin:
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    dirkhh
    Sorry, I'll try to post rambling nonsense for the next few days.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    apacheguy
    How can there be no event or fanfare? There certainly was both for the Model S launch.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    dirkhh
    And don't forget all of us (including you and me) who have cars and reservations and who voice what we consider reasonably criticism and then get yelled down by the people who don't want to accept any criticism.
    It goes both ways.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    simplejack
    No one is saying there won't be a launch event, but it does not appear to be happening on the 29th (or before if you take Elon at his word that it won't be revealed before deliveries)

    So now we're just spitballing when it might actually happen.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Subhuman
    If I recall correctly wasn't the founder's lunch of the Model S fairly low key? Didn't they have a separate event with more fanfare when delievering the first general production vehicles.

    With that being said, I agree that the Sept. 29th deliveries are only occurring so Tesla can say they hit their deadline and there is no delay.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    apacheguy
    Pretty sure Steve Jurvetson took delivery that day with all the cameras rolling. He was Founders #1. Elon was #2. Does Elon still drive his original car? Anyone know?
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    aronth5
    For those interested in a little nostalgia here is the initial delivery event for the Model S. Very cool and lots of emotion all around including I'm sure many of us who watched the event on the web in great anticipation of an historical event!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMgzCnspapo
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Mark Z
    And, here is the earlier delivery event video for the Founder's Model S.

    First 2012 Tesla Model S Delivered To Earliest Depositor Steve Jurvetson (Video)

    Take note on both videos, NO vehicle specifics were discussed and they appear to be first delivery gatherings for management and employee attendance.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    eloder
    To me, it sounds like it's a similar pattern to... oh, just the very best car ever created in the entire world, the Model S.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    ecarfan
    An order reservation number is not the same thing as a VIN.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    goneskiian
    Ahhh, I miss George. Especially when he was trying to keep Elon from sticking his foot in his mouth. ;-)

    As for the discussion in this thread, I agree with those that say the X isn't ready for revealing fully. I postulated somewhere a couple weeks ago that all those mules with blacked out rear windows didn't even have back seats in them. Oh and why do you think we're seeing cgi's of the back seats? And why didn't the customer sevice folks at Tesla not know how they worked at first? They don't exist yet. Or they do but in such limited quantities that "Only about 20 folks at Tesla have seen the complete final version of the X." As that guy in the video said after taking a recent tour.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    AnOutsider
    also, IIRC there are different vin sequences for sig, founders and production

    - - - Updated - - -

    haha, GeorgeB was great
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    FlasherZ
    Here's my take on it...

    Unlike the Model S, Tesla didn't produce any beta vehicles to put into stores for consideration, nor did Tesla offer a test drive opportunity before finalizing. My Model S reservation was made when I could sit inside the beta prototype vehicle inside the San Jose store - I ran back to my hotel and reserved that night and put myself on the waiting list for Sig. We don't get that for Model X. Many/most Sig MS buyers were able to drive one at the Get Amped events before finalizing as well.

    All of the pent-up frustration with the Model X seems to be the result of a lack of information that would be provided by those mechanisms. Tesla's online information for Model S didn't talk about folding seats or frunk dimensions or anything detailed like that, it was just the basics.

    It's the lack of hands-on that's making everyone concerned here, and they're being asked to confirm their order and commit before they can see/touch the vehicle. That's what's wrong here.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    Trnsl8r
    *cough* You mean "there is no further delay"... We forget so quickly they targeted 2013. Not sure why this Q3 deadline became so important when they've continually blown through all the previous ones...
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    FlasherZ
    At some point some analyst behind the scenes says "no, we really mean it this time... no, *really*. I swear - I've prepared this note to issue."
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    postpast
    If there is delays, as many on this thread believe, than Tesla really shouldn't have "
    The delivery estimate for new
    reservations is early 2016" ?
    on there website. Even if they are fully ready to go, "early" 2016 seems a real stretch to get through all pre-orders.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    vandacca
    Well, if there are a lot of cancellations due to 2nd-row-gate, then they might be able to get to them "early" 2016. I hope that's not the case though.
    �
  • Sep 17, 2015
    dirkhh
    In Tesla time "early 2016" likely lasts until about August 2016. Actually, if I base it on the CHAdeMO adapter then "early 2016" ranges way into 2017...

    Also, how long it takes depends in part on the cancellation ratio. Maybe they expect a third of us to walk?
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    vandacca
    It would appear that Sig #448 was asked to configure. I don't believe that Tesla is anywhere close to having 448 confirmed reservations at this point. Therefore, I suspect that a lot of Signature holders have deferred their reservation until more information is available (Sept 29th?). If my theory is correct, then I would expect a lot of Sigs to confirm shortly after Sept 29th at which point Tesla will be flooded with orders. That would mean that they may not invite new Sigs to configure for quite some time (all of October?) until they get through all the orders.

    I suspect that some will cancel as well, so any people on the Sig waiting list may be contacted in October. All speculation of course.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    simplejack
    Has there been any official communication that more details will be released on the 29th, or are you basing that on the known facts of:

    1. Elon saying details won't be released until cars are delivered.
    2. Founders cars are being delivered on the 29th.

    I am very hopeful that there will be more information, but I have seen anyone post anything official from Tesla that there will be more information as of the 29th. If it's been told to a sig res holder by Tesla directly, I may have missed it but that would be great news.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    vandacca
    Yes, I'm basing my Sept. 29th date on the points you mentioned. I feel like we won't get too much more information prior to this date, and it will be sometime after this date where all the questions will be answered. I don't know how that information will be presented (e.g. statement by Tesla, information via the Design Studio, YouTube video by a Founder, Tweet by Elon, etc.).

    However, I am surprised a bit that Tesla has been trickling out more information via the Design Studio recently.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    NigelM
    This is what I have done and several friends have also done the same, or are planning to. So far Tesla seems to have been quite accommodating and hopefully they will continue to be so.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    dirkhh
    I have now heard from two people who are Sig holders and contacted Tesla and asked when all their questions would be answered and they were told that that wasn't clear at this point. One of them asked if it was going to be the 29th and he was told no.
    I'm writing this without names because both told me in email and both didn't want to state this in public for their own reasons.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    NigelM
    Just for clarity, Tesla hasn't told me when the details I need will be available. I put my configuration on hold and requested I be allowed to leave it like that until details are revealed, be that the 29th or sooner or later than that date. I'm OK with waiting if they are.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    PGeer
    Configured last week and spoke with my DES yesterday. He went to Fremont last week and saw a completed X. All he would say was, we're in for some big surprises. I asked him about the 29th, mostly interested in whether or not there is an "event", will we all learn the details we crave on that date. He said emphatically, yes.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    Lyon
    Remember how he used to post on the forum before the Model S launch? We'd get all worked up into a tizzy about something and then he'd drop some actual information and things would calm down...

    ... except for that one time about invalidating the warranty if service wasn't done correctly. That set off a sh*t storm of epic proportions.

    Sigh. I miss GeorgeB.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    AnOutsider
    Honestly, I feel like GeorgeB's public relations was a big part of keeping me excited for the company. Met him several times over the years and he's always just seemed genuinely happy and enthused. He was also a good public face for the company taking our concerns back to the mothership. Seemed very customer-oriented.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    SBenson


    Tesla communication at it's finest!
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    palmer_md
    Just out of curiosity I went back to the earnings conference call from January and found the two comments about the middle seat and the reveal.

    Tesla Motors' (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

    Patrick Archambault asked when we could expect to see the X revealed at a show of some sort and Elon responded that we are not going to show it until it gets delivered. Just prior to that he was describing the asthetics of the second row seats and how it is a sculptural beauty.

    Boy the anticipation of the first delivery into the hands of a video blogger is intense.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    goneskiian
    +1 on him being a great, enthusiastic face for the company.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    adiggs
    An observation about this point - describing this as a "deferral" makes it more organized sounding than it is, at least in my case, and I suspect how it works in general. In my case, we've been invited to configure and have simply not yet configured and ordered. That carries with it the consequence that somebody with a higher signature reservation # who chooses to configure now will almost certainly receive a car with a lower numbered VIN than we will, and in that sense, we are deferring.

    But it's not like we had our chance, and decided to defer to later and have been tossed back into the queue further back, and now we have to wait for our number to come up again.

    I expect that there will come a point where we'll need to order or be dropped from the signature reservation queue as Tesla will be nearing the end of the Signature configurations and builds. And that we'll have to make a buy / defer / walk decision at that point. I'm expecting that point won't arrive until sometime later in October at the soonest (1000 cars in October sounds like a stretch to me), and that is totally guesswork.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2015
    ZachShahan
    It sure would be nice if we knew which of these Tesla reps knew up was up, eh?

    Can't say Tesla doesn't keep it interesting.

    10 days (and some change) to go...
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    schonelucht
    According to the model X tracker, 60% of those invited to design, have ordered. Let's say those who fill in the tracker are self-selected to be the most excited and assume only half of the invites turned to orders already. Adding 40% cancellations on signature orders and Tesla has 135 firm orders at this point and 135 'waiting Walters'.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    If we had 40% cancellations you would see Tesla communication in overdrive. Elon would be Tweeting, a proper event would used to demo and launch, they would invite journalists and go on TV with a demo car, send out a blog spot to address concers, etc. The fact that none of these are happening tells me cancellations must be low compared to orders. As much as they don't want a huge spike of X orders right now, they surely don't want a PR disaster either.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    vandacca
    Wow, I don't want to get into the whole poll discussion again, but that 60% is meaningless. What is meaningful is that there were 448 people that at one time had a reservation. Obviously, some of those cancelled long ago, and some may have cancelled recently, furthermore, some of them have been "unresponsive" and have not confirmed. All we know is that there are (448 or less) people that have been contacted to configure.

    The other interesting number is those that have actually confirmed: 27.

    The worse possible scenario is that 448 people were asked to configure and only 27 actually configured, putting the actual percentage at 6%.

    So the real-world value is likely between 6% and 60%. How useful is that?

    ---Updated---

    BTW, going around and advertising that 60% of people that were asked to configure, have configured is just as irresponsible as me going around and saying that 94% of the people that were asked to configured have not configured.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    hpham007
    It's more useful than 0% - 100%..

    :smile:
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    Krugerrand
    And there's the deja vu.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    dirkhh
    Not to be pedantic (ha! you know what an intro like that means, right?)... but all we know is that 22 people have claimed to have been invited to configure but haven't ordered. So out of 448 people who theoretically were asked (there could be cancellations in that list) we could have 95% that have already ordered. So assuming no one falsified data in the tracker, the range is 6%-95%.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    vandacca
    Hey, you stole my line. ;-) Thanks for clarifying the upper end. I didn't want to spend too much time on baseless statistics, so I only focused on the one extreme, not both. My bad for being lazy.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    PGeer
    My DES told me I'm one of only three orders for the Seattle area so far (as of four days ago.) What we don't know (yet) is whether Tesla concentrating invites to California to keep majority of first cars near by.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    doggusfluffy
    So the irony has gone full circle now? The idea they weren't unveiling the X due to the Osborne effect along with overstimulating the 35k reservation backlog is now a possible 6%-95% cancellation rate before we've seen the car. How quickly the tides have turned. :wink:
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    dirkhh
    I think those two statements are not correlated. Some reservation holders may have cancelled or may be holding back on clicking the confirmation button because of expectations that weren't met.
    But that has nothing to do with the question whether a fully announced / revealed Model X would have a negative impact on Model S sales.

    The first one has to do with expectations of existing reservation holders. And it has no immediate revenue impact as they simply can walk down the line of reservations and invite the next group to configure. Sure, they'll go through their backlog more quickly, but assuming that the Model X will be successful in the market that isn't that big of an issue.
    The second one has to do with expectations of new customers choosing between Model S and Model X. Thereby choosing between a car that would create Tesla revenues in Q4'15 vs. one that will create Tesla revenues in Q2'16 (at the earliest).
    �
  • Sep 19, 2015
    ZachShahan
    Haha. Inside the world of the TMC forum. :D

    No reality distortion here whatsoever. :D Thanks goodness Model X decisions aren't made via the consensus of Tesla enthusiasts. :D
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    engle
    Yesterday at the factory store, when I started asking X questions, I was told flat out by a senior product specialist that "Information on the Model X is on 'lock down'. We haven't been told anything. We're selling Model S vehicles"." I asked them: "What do you say to people who walk in with a Model X Sig reservation that have been asked to configure and have questions?" The response was: "I tell them to call the special inside sales phone number they've been given. We have an internal dedicated team supporting Model X customers".

    Would anyone care to share that number here or PM me? :biggrin: I have a list of 10 questions to email them, so I can configure immediately upon invitation.

    Later I asked if they've seen any "Osborne effect" and they said no, we're selling Model S vehicles here just like we normally do.

    IMHO, Tesla has and is going to great lengths to prevent the Osborne effect in Q4. Model S ordered today are for November Delivery. That may change to December delivery by 9/29 when the Model X will be extensively publicized through the media. IMHO, Tesla wants all the people who ordered Model S thru 9/22 to be non-refundable come 9/29's announcement so none can switch to the back of the X line without a financial penalty.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    This speculation from a news article may be useless, but some people believe that Tesla is deliberately withholding information on Model X in order to generate publicity and interest:

    http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_28842354/excitement-questions-mount-tesla-model-x-release

    The question is whether the lack of information is the result of "correct management" or simply an unfortunate byproduct of delays and "taking no chances" with Model S delivery flow.

    The unfortunate reality for customers is that Tesla is the only game in town with a long-range EV. They can afford to do whatever they want, as there is no competition.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    simplejack
    They can do whatever they want as long as the customer ONLY wants a BEV. For those of us that value BEV, but not to the point of ruling out ICE or hybrid vehicles, there is a lot of quality competition in the 80-100k luxury SUV/CUV market. It's incredibly short cited of Tesla to lose these customers by "launching" the X in a covert fashion.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    Krugerrand
    They can do whatever they want regardless of any outcome you can imagine. It's part of their current business plan and I have no doubt whatsoever that they (he?) have thought long and hard. This is not a company that thinks short term and they've shown a serious proclivity for being long-sighted; Supercharger Network, Gigafactory, Model 3, PowerWall/Pack are the biggies, but there's dozens of examples of little things that they've done that clearly show they were thinking wayyyyyyyy ahead.

    Has *this* been a mistake? *shrug* Don't know and don't think it'll matter in the scheme of things anyway, but I do know it wasn't a short-sighted decision.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    AmpedRealtor
    Not really. Tesla has been consistent for many months that Model X would be revealed during the first deliveries. It's nothing new.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Well, if Tesla could show us a prototype 2-3 years ago why can't they show us a finished car with every option and upgrade during a launch event? Are you suggesting Tesla cannot build a one-off car to show it off at a show? None of the concept cars at Frankfurt are production cars - they are one-offs - yet they seem to be able to make those just fine. It's fairly obvious that Tesla is not interested in hyping this launch of one of Tesla's most anticipated products. We have to ask ourselves why? It's an intentional choice.

    - - - Updated - - -

    How hard is it for Tesla to secure a reliable supply of seats? My god, every car manufacturer does this without any hiccups. You'd think Tesla was reinventing the upholstery manufacturing business or something. What on earth is Tesla doing wrong that they can't get the simple things that every other vehicle manufacturer can get without any problems? I'm tired of hearing excuses from Musk and Tesla. First it was the falcon doors, then it was the "sculptural work of art" 2nd row seats that Elon said were incredibly difficult to get right. Then there is his statement that the Model X is the most difficult car in the world to build.

    When did Tesla lose focus like this? Make the car more straightforward so that it can actually be built on time. Then iterate the car over time to introduce those amazing "wants" that didn't make the final cut. I'm smelling something fishy, sorry to say.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    MrBoylan
    I sent my Model X questions to [email�protected] and got a call back from an inside sales rep within a couple of hours. The call-back number he left on my voice mail was 650-681-5100 - the main sales phone number in Fremont (same number posted on their web site). I would imagine they will check your Model X reservation number before getting into much detail, and even then, answers are limited ("No sir, the 2nd row seats do not fold and there are currently no plans for an alternate second row seat."). The woman I spoke with did say they learn about many of these issues (Design Studio shots, etc.) after they're leaked here on the forum.

    It's possible they know more this week than they did last week, but much more likely they either have *NOT* been told any of the "secrets" about the Model X or have been asked not to divulge any details that have not yet been publicized.

    The good news is that September 29th is only 9 days away. :)
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    SBenson
    Do you know *for sure* that on Sep 29 the car will be revealed?
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    MrBoylan
    So far, all we have seen of the production seats are some static renders (or photos, kind of hard to tell for sure). And they do look pretty different from any seats I've seen before. Are they better than anything else out there? Maybe. We'll know more in 9 days. Being different is hard.

    Making the car "more straightforward" would mean making the car something other than a Tesla. The Model S was and is ground-breaking in many ways: massive range, superior handling, flush-mount disappearing door handles, 17" touch panel controls. Should they have launched the Model S with knobs and buttons, or a 13-inch screen because it was easier? Should they have used regular door handles? I don't think so. The Model X has to be awesome right out of the gate so they can show just how different - how much better - a car (or an SUV/CUV) can be.

    Yes, falcon wing doors and magic seats are hard, particularly when you're a perfectionist like Musk. But Tesla is not in the game to be "good enough," they're in it to be the best.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Based on past events, it is extremely likely. Nothing is "for sure" except death and taxes... and that my taxes will be $7500 lower next year. :)
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    hpham007
    People make the mistake and assume that if something is "different", it's innovative. Different means different, not by default better or worse. Tesla definitely made the X different with the Falcon doors and rear seats that do not fold. Is it better or innovative? I guess we'll soon find out..

    :smile:
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    SBenson
    I meant to ask if anyone from Tesla has said that the car will be revealed on 29th.

    I guess the answer is still no.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    NigelM
    With all respect, if anyone were to publish that here it would immediately be swamped and those of us trying to configure now would never get our answers.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    MrBoylan
    No mistake made. I understand the difference between "different" (like the AMC Pacer with its Wankel rotary engine - hard to be more different than that) and innovative. Tesla innovates. They showed it with the Model S and they're showing it again with the Model X. We shall see, indeed.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    engle
    Hi Nigel,

    That's why I added the phrase "or PM me".

    Best of luck with your Sig config!

    Thanks,
    Russ

    PS. I have back channels I could try, since one of my best friends here in Fremont is good friends with a couple of the C-levels (not Elon). But I'd rather go through normal channels to try to get the information I need, first. I hope that Tesla will reveal everything, photos from all angles, all the "special features", all the specs, etc., etc. on 9/29 -- but I'm not counting on it. If they don't even invite customers like Ken and Bonnie to the Founder X Delivery Factory Event to see the X (did they invite you?), then I don't expect many additional details to come out of it. Hopefully, I'll be proven wrong, and Elon will at least show all the X "secrets" to the assembled media on 9/29 and give them test rides or drives.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    eloder
    My own company doesn't fight for customers. The reason? Our internal statistics show extremely high rates of leaving customers returning within a short period of time, as we're expensive but very high quality in our field.

    Not only does Tesla know that they need to keep MS cashflow steady for now, but they also realize that the people who leave and truly never come back is likely a very tiny number right now. Even if people feel truly slighted by the lack of XYZ feature on the MX, or by the lack of communication, they can afford to stick to their long-term vision.

    I'd like to know info more than anyone, but I won't be expecting good hard detailed info until at least 2-4 weeks after the founder deliveries begin.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I expect the forum to explode in fury if Tesla tweets that Model X has been "delivered", but that no other details are available. My estimation is that the probability of this happening is quite high. The company likely does not want to take any risk, however small, of damaging Model S sales, probably because they are struggling to meet shareholder guidance numbers for total delivery in 2015.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    ecarfan
    While that could happen, I doubt it would have a significant negative impact on Model S or X sales. Demand is very strong, and Tesla has to build thousands of X's to work through the reservation backlog. That is going to take months.
    Personally I do expect an X reveal event at or very close to the Founders delivery date, and I think more details will appear on the website at that time. Of course I could be wrong. But the world will keep spinning, and Tesla will keep growing.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    FlasherZ
    Note that the Pacer never shipped with the Wankel. Instead, AMC shoved their straight-6 into the car (I believe the 258 ci, if I remember right, which was one hell of a workhorse). At the last minute, they were forced to do a redesign; if I recall correctly, it was based on a marketing concern of the engine's "feel" (engine noise and RPM), leaving Mazda as the only manufacturer to consider the rotary engine.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    GIdoc
    I hope most people here have seen this old video.

    Inside the Tesla Model X - YouTube

    Just looking at this old prototype, I think one of the better suprises will be to have those LED/touchscreen control on the steering wheel in the actual production model.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    andrewket
    I too am hoping for more steering wheel controls.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    Zaxxon
    Agreed. I won't explode in fury if the 9/29 event reveals little to nothing to the public, and I've calibrated my expectations expecting that outcome.

    I will, however, note the Q3 'launch' as another missed deadline. There's no reasonable definition of launch that includes no deliveries to customers outside the company's inner circle and a lack of concrete, full specification/pricing information to at least the reservation holders if not the public at large.

    Hopefully Tesla will come through. Not holding my breath on this one, though.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    vandacca
    I have to believe that most car manufacturers don't challenge their suppliers much. They make choices like the type of stitch, piping, seat patterns, etc. I suspect that the Model-X seats are very different to what most suppliers are used to building and they had to work really hard with Tesla to make it work. Furthermore, I suspect that Elon is a control-freak and perfectionist, which put even more pressure on these suppliers.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla was forced to go with non-folding seats because Elon just wasn't happy with the results and he just didn't have the option to delay the Model-X yet again.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    ohmman
    One of the hardest parts of all of this is the juxtaposition. What some of us need to reconcile is:

    A company that appears to be so insanely with it:
    * Roadster is the game changer, amazing car, automotive customer service to silence all other pretenders in the field
    * MS building on that, winning accolades from just about everywhere, and deserving every bit of them

    A company that is outstandingly amateur:
    * Communication - not much more to say here.
    * Overpromise, heavily delayed deliver. I refuse to say under deliver because that's not accurate.
    * Whatever the hell is going on with this MX release, which is unprecedented.

    How a company that we love so much can live in both of these camps confounds me. It also scares me.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    goneskiian
    You must have missed the thread started by Eds. This poster was determined to work for the seat supplier and said that the first X's off the line would be comprimised because they would have hand built components and that there would be less than 100 delivered this year. They also said that at least one supplier wouldn't be supplying parts until maybe November or December because of last minute design changes that included specs that had yet to be passed on to the supplier by Tesla.

    Sure Tesla can source parts and products from suppliers if they give them time to get the proper tooling in place. Tesla is still pretty small potatoes in the car manufacturing business though so I would imagine suppliers are only willing to jump so high when asked, or bend over backward only so far when pushing deadlines.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    PGeer
    My DES (I've configured) said he saw the X last week in Fremont and that yes, he "knew" we would receive details on the 29th.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    adelman
    As Signature #1, I've been assigned VIN 5YJXCAE4XGFS00001. Our Signature Model S is VIN 5YJSA1DP9CFS00044; I think our "Signature number" was 48 or so. If my recollection is correct the Founder's cars had a different sequence, starting at F00001 rather than S00001, so the Founder's cars don't affect the Signature numbers. I think the same is true of the various levels of prototypes.

    Note that although Tesla doesn't guarantee a relationship between place-in-line and VINs, I think if you finalize your car immediately when called upon to, you have some reasonable chance of receiving a VIN <= your Signature place-in-line. If you delay, expect a later VIN.

    Ken
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    dirkhh
    Nonono. NSU sold Wankel Motor cars in Germany for years. I actually rode in a Ro 80 as a child :)
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    smorgasbord
    From my experience, not true at all. OEMs beat hard on their suppliers, from quality to cost to production volume to returns. OEMs are looking for both proven and uniqueness, which are tastes great/less attributes.

    The uniqueness aspects are the scary ones for OEMs, and I agree that could be the real issue here.
    �
  • Sep 20, 2015
    gjunky
    Wankel is, I believe, the inventor of the rotary engine. Yes, NSU sold the RO 80 with a rotary engine. I have been in one too (too young to drive)
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    FlasherZ
    Sorry, should have been clearer... In the US.

    Before they did an emergency about-face, AMC licensed the rotary engine for the Pacer from Curtiss-Wright, which licensed the technology from NSU to begin with. There were probably several others that popped up in Asia as well.
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    Zaxxon
    Now that there is officially an event and folks are getting invites, I'm happy to likely be wrong.
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    vandacca
    Sorry, that's what I meant by "challenges" - more like engineering/technical challenges. I totally agree that OEMs will "challenge" suppliers on cost-related issues.
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    NigelM
    In a discussion with the MX support person this morning, it was confirmed to me that my detailed questions on dimensions, cargo space etc. will definitely be answered next week. the scope of the conversation was such that I clearly take that to mean ALL will be revealed on the 29th or immediately afterwards.

    (Tesla was accommodating to leave my order open at least until next week)
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    Zaxxon
    Fantastic.
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    ohmman
    Very exciting stuff. I'm eager to get falcon door arc measurement ranges (for garage fitment).
    �
  • Sep 21, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    This is a major relief to read. I'm excited for the big party!
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)