Thứ Sáu, 6 tháng 1, 2017

What Should Elon Include in His Top Secret Master Plan II part 1

  • Jul 10, 2016
    Bgarret
    with his Tweet Sunday, Elon teased an update or revision to the Top Secret Master Plan. Since the initial Top Secret Master Plan is still underway, what material additions/ updates will be add...let the speculation begin. Here are some amuse Bouche for your pleasure:

    1. Revised timelines for Tesla Auto, including Model S,X, 3 and hints at future models.
    2. Outline of Tesla Energy similar to the one provided in Master Plan I for Tesla Auto.
    3. Outline of Gigafactories for battery and solar. Gigafactories as product?
    4. Outline of a path to autonomous driving.

    This should be fun.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    SBenson
    First three don't qualify for a "masterplan" . They are merely just 'plans' ;)

    The second part is about another fundamental disruption.

    A fully autonomous system of cars reduce the need down to 1/4th the number of cars for the overall society. That will help accelerate developing a fully sustainable transportation system much faster.

    This is essentially what Adam Jonas was essentially begging Tesla to announce.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    woof
    Original master plan:
    They already did 2.5 (Build even more expensive SUV).
    SCTY acquisition to help with 4.

    I'd add:
    3.5 Use that money to build an even more more affordable car (Perhaps Model Y, or something else)
    5. OEM powertrain to others (including Supercharging)
    6. Design electric plane...partner with aircraft manufacturer to build/market.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    neroden
    If you look at the original master plan, steps 1 through 3 are highly specific, with a financial scheme -- actual business plan material -- and step 4 is really vague.

    I think the logical Master Plan II is to spell out "provide zero emission electric power generation options", with a finance sequencing plan like they had for the cars. "Factory as a product" would be a sensible thing to include as well, because it explains part of the financing.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    ecarfan
    I would only speculate that it will be a much broader vision than the original plan, incorporating a holistic look at Tesla providing a complete sustainable energy solution for individuals and businesses, from onsite generation to storage to use including use in transportation.

    The goal could be to transition the world to sustainable energy use for almost all energy needs, not just for transportation.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    30seconds
    More cowbell
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    Garlan Garner
    Ok..

    Elon has a new time stretcher. Elon Musk on Twitter

    What do you think it is? We only have a few days to guess.

    Does it have anything to do with M3?
    Pencils down?
    Or MY?
    Or ....?

    Any guesses?
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    JeffK
    If I had to guess I would say that he's going to be more explicit about Tesla's energy plans.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    S'toon
  • Jul 10, 2016
    hckyplyr
    Global domination
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    Garlan Garner
    Love it. Great response.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    trils0n
    I hopefully it will be an update to clarify point four. And perhaps some more info about self driving cars.

    Here is the original secret master plan from 2006:

    The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)
    1. Build sports car
    2. Use that money to build an affordable car
    3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
    4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    Adm
    I suspect plans for factories in Europe and China will be part of the master plan.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    ecarfan
  • Jul 10, 2016
    JeffK
    I'd actually argue the entire point of the first master plan was the Model 3 and the guesses the OP made had to do with the Model 3 platform which is probably why it was posted here.

    I do agree though that the Master Plan Part II will probably not be about the Model 3.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    JeffK
    Besides energy related topics, let's remember that Elon mentioned in a previous talk that Tesla had a upcoming solution to automotive congestion issues...
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    Garlan Garner

    I get on my knees and beg your forever forgiveness. What do you suggest that I do? It was never my intent to double start a topic. I realize that is frowned upon.

    I believed that it might have something to do with the M3. Since people don't think so.....please destroy the thread if needed.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    TaoJones
    Hyperloop for freight at first and people in time - transcontinentally, then globally.

    Energy sufficiency for the country then continent.

    Cars with a 100,000 mile new car warranty.

    One of these is not like the others.
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    Ben W
    Perhaps Elon should wait and publish the post on Aug 2, which is the 10-year anniversary of his Top Secret Master Plan Part 1! :D

    I'd love to see Tesla's detailed roadmap/timeline for full autonomy. Will the Model 3 "Autopilot" hardware (or Autopilot V2 for S/X) be capable of fully autonomous driving, once the software catches up? Would it make sense to designate certain freeway lanes or toll roads as autonomous-only, so cars could e.g. safely draft off each other nose-to-tail?

    How does Elon envision the SC network scaling up to handle a 10x or 50x larger fleet?

    Beyond a pickup truck, does Tesla plan to eventually go larger, into Tahoe/Suburban/Expedition territory? Or full-size vans? Or even semi trucks / buses? Would the Gigafactory provide batteries for other companies producing these vehicles?

    I wonder what Elon's view is on cleaner nuclear tech, such as thorium reactors, and whether that has a place in future power generation, or whether he'd rather jump straight to Tesla Fusion�. Or whether he thinks pure solar / wind / hydro / geothermal will be enough. I also wonder whether he's thought about any economically viable model for recapturing carbon back out of the atmosphere.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    hckyplyr
    Run against trump and hillary
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    22522
    Millions and millions of Model 3s
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    182RG
    Turn a profit?
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Merge Solar City with Tesla ... no, too far-fetched! :cool:
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Merge Solar City with Tesla ... no, too far-fetched! :cool:
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    Booga
    I expect that it will involve more volume, more models, and maybe a target for autopilot in terms of capabilities or # of miles per fatality, on average.

    I expect that the models will include a pickup truck, but maybe also an additional SUV (smaller than the current Model X). Just based on market share, I don't think a hatchback will happen immediately, but maybe it gets a spot in this plan as potentially even less expensive than the Model 3.

    I'm making guesses on the models just based on sales by body style: SUVs and Crossovers Overtake Sedans to Become Most Popular Vehicle Body Style in the U.S., IHS Automotive Finds | IHS Online Newsroom
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    JeffK
    Profits are overrated. You just need people to invest long enough to change the world forever.

    They still have over $4 billion in revenue though. :)
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    dc_h
    New integrated scty and TE product. Reducing installation costs to reduce payoff time. Integration of sales with TE umbrella storefront.
    Hoping for something compelling and financially sustainable.
    Anyone worried scty will impair TSLA brand value?
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    Chewy3
    Part 2...like part 2 of the M3 unveiling?

    The model 3 was where he announced his Master Plan, and he referred a lot of questions about model 3 to 'Part 2'
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    AZ Desert Driver
    Man - an answer to "Pencils Down" seems spot on. Ive read many of the other (wants) to be announced. I want them too, but I think your Pencil Down is a lead cinch
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    JeffK
  • Jul 10, 2016
    Bishop
    the same thing he tries to do every night pinky TRY TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    TacC
    He could be Peter Thiel's Sec of Energy. Alas, they're both foreigners.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    woof
    As interesting as that idea may be, the constitution requires that only natural born US citizens may be POTUS. Mr. Musk is not.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    alseTrick
    [?IMG]
    �
  • Jul 10, 2016
    TheTalkingMule
    Painting a picture of fully integrated solar/storage/charge options for home and utility applications. Won't be anything like a new model vehicle or anything specific like that, but more of a long term vision to change people's notion of what's possible, just like the first "master plan".

    If investors would like to do some quick math based on this new vision......well that's up to them. :)
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    trils0n
    Wonder if Elon will continue the metaphor/include a further explanation of "Alien Dreadnought Levels" that he mentioned on the Solar City call. I think an Alien Dreadnought Level will be a good measurement unit for giant, unstoppable forces previously unimagined. :cool::D:p
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    S'toon
    If I recall correctly, Peter Thiel and Musk don't agree at all on anything. Peter Thiel is an extreme Libertarian. Wanted to build an off-shore floating Libertarian paradise.
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    SageBrush
    The $50k USD, Zero emission home and car Tesla Package Deal in 2025: car+PV+storage
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  • Jul 10, 2016
    Ben W
    Master Plan Part Two calls for a Giga-Gigafactory-Factory that will crank out one billion Gigafactories per year. Dreadnoughts 'R' Us :p
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ecarfan
    When Elon launched Tesla Energy last year, he was pretty clear in describing how, for example, the current electrical demands of the United States could be met using a tiny part of the continental US covered with solar panels, then went on to say that in reality the required land area is far less because most solar would be installed on building roof tops. He also detailed how much land area needed to be devoted to large storage batteries, and it was even less than the area needed for solar.

    In my opinion he sees no reason for nuclear power.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ecarfan
    The "Secret Master Plan" was made by Elon in a Tesla Motors blog post on August 2, 2006. See The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ecarfan
    Don't beg, it's demeaning. ;) (Kidding). And I'm not asking for the thread to be "destroyed". I requested that a moderate merge it with the existing thread. Simple solution.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    Garlan Garner
    I thought you were a moderator. I mean...you have over 8000 posts. :)
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    msnow
    Would love to hear the shareholders, investors and the Board's reaction to "Profits are overrated" ;).
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    Bishop
    '
    as a minor minor minor shareholder lemme speak for the small majority .. " WTF you kidding right"
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ModelNforNerd

    They've already strayed from the STMMPv1.

    The Model X ended up becoming step 2.5.

    So where they go from here is anyone's guess.

    Model Y, anyone? Maybe the "$25,000 Tesla"? Or is the Model Y going to be $25K?

    HHHMMMMM....
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    JeffK
    The Model X is still based on the Model S platform though. The model Y will be based on the Model 3 platform. So I'd say those are already included.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    Swampgator
    Simple

    #1 Become the best at manufacturing
    #2 Sell millions of Model 3s
    #3 Use that money to develop and sell even more affordable model
    #4 Enable easy access to net zero (solar) car charging to equal full sustainability
    #5 Develop and sell pickup truck
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    farzyness
    On the 1st master plan, Elon had 4 key things that he outlined in order to reach the goal of the Master Plan, which was to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport (i.e. Model 3):

    Build Sports Car
    Use money to fund cheaper car
    Use money to fund even cheaper car
    Provide zero emission power generation options while doing the above

    I think his second master plan will be along the same idea - outline the primary goal of Tesla in the next 10 years and describe the 3 to 4 steps needed to reach it. Here's what I think it may be:

    The Goal - to accelerate the advent of a 0 emission and fully renewable energy generation and consumption economy.

    Step 1: Build Gigafactories all over the world that will manufacture enough batteries to support a fully energy sustainable world
    Step 2: Flood the market with compelling, affordable electric transportation systems (cars, planes, hyperloop, etc.) that are exponentially better than its ICE alternatives to solve the consumption problem
    Step 3: Flood the market with affordable, compelling energy systems for homes and businesses that will allow them to be 100% energy independent to solve the generation problem
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ecarfan
    I am a moderator for the California forums only. I do not have the necessary access to merge this thread with the previously started thread about the same topic.

    Note: number of posts is unrelated to being a moderator or not. :)
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    emupilot
    Releasing the Master Plan 2.0 now is clearly designed to tell skeptical investors (like me) why he wants Tesla to buy Solar City. As farzyness states above, I expect the new master plan to be about producing batteries, solar panels, integrated energy systems, and cars in such quantity and at compelling prices to replace nonrenewable sources of energy.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Elon summarized the secret plan:
    1. Build sports car
    2. Use that money to build an affordable car
    3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
    4. While doing above, provide zero emission electric power generation options
    5. Don�t tell anyone that we are living in a simulated reality controlled by Aliens :cool:
    �
  • Jul 11, 2016
    Model 3
    But if we do really live in a simulated reality, would they who control that reality actually be Aliens? I assume the simulator will be running at their planet! ;)

    ... on a second thought - this may give some meaning to "in his (their) own image". They may not even look alien to us anyway ;)
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    wallet.dat
    Full integration with Pokemon GO!
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    JeffK
    Will that include dead bodies? How many fit in the newly designed trunk anyway? I can't be the only person who measures trunk sizes in number of bodies.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ModelNforNerd
    from what I'm reading, I'd be very happy if the Model 3 blocked all access to Pokemon Go within a 50 ft radius of the vehicle.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    austinEV
    I think that rule has been weakened significantly in the last 10 years. First the "birthers" brought it to the forefront which had the unintended consequence of causing Americans to air out why we still had that rule. Then Arnold's governor term did the same thing. Then, Ted Cruz got to run even though he was for sure born in Canada and no one really seemed to care. I honestly think that if (god forbid) Ted Cruz had gotten the nomination there would have been some acclimation that that was fine and some constitutional tinkering would have followed. I think there is broad bi-partisan support for allowing naturalized citizens to run. The original idea was to prevent british loyalists from sneaking in, iirc. (also McCain was a super marginal case. Born in Panama, outside the US. But a territory (at the time) so stronger than Cruz who was definitely born in Canada).

    Musk 2024!
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    Bgarret
    In response to a post by Jigar Shaw, Elon responded "something like that", with regards to Master Plan II.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bullish-case-tesla-solar-city-merger-jigar-shah

    In reading the post, it talks about bundling and financing Solar + Battery + 2 cars for $100k and how it potentially could pay for itself. The missing element is financing, which is also the difficulty with Tesla, SCTY and more widespread adoption of Solar and Electric Transportation and discussing relatively undercapitalized SCTY and TSLA. Any chance of a asset financing pool by 3rd parties that would remove the leasing/deferred financing as an obstacle from both Tesla and Science City. Would be helpful for cash flow, capital expenditures and cash burn.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    jonnyg
    But when you get in an accident while Autopilot is on and you were playing Pokemon GO, who do you sue?
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    Model 3
    I read the tweet. How do we know it as in regards to Master Plan II and not just the Solar Tesla merger? I read it just as the latest, but it could be both...
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    AZ Desert Driver
    OK Im a luddite. What is a Pokey man? why would he be inside 50' of my car. In this field, I'm clueless.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    inspron
    V2 of the plan:

    Model 3 will be compatible with the HyperLoop Systems. LA to NY in 1 hour in your car. Ready to drive off at your destination.

    Mic drop.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ecarfan
    That would be awesome, but I think that will not happen. The economics of the Hyperloop, as Elon laid out in the white paper, won't work for it carrying cars with one or a few people in it. The cost per passenger might Ben an order of magnitude higher. That's a lot of mass and volume taken up per passenger compared to the drawings we have seen of what a Hyperloop passenger compartment could look like.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    BluestarE3
  • Jul 11, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Yes, if you look closely, you can clearly see the master plan illustrated here ... :cool:

    upload_2016-7-11_17-24-41.png
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    FlatSix911
  • Jul 11, 2016
    Bgarret
    Because it was attached to this tweet from Jagr to Elon:

    .@T24h7d @TheEnergyGang @elonmusk I already put in my 2 cents on Tesla 2.0:

    If you are curious, you can follow the Twitter links yourself.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    neroden
    He HAS!

    Those black panels which SolarCity sells? They're collecting fusion power. From a fusion reactor which generates about 3 * 10^14 terawatts. Admittedly only 1.8 * 10^5 terawatts is reaching Earth, but I'd still call that a pretty impressive fusion reactor. Sure, we're only converting 20% of the fusion energy to electricity, but Civilization only uses about 12 terawatts, so I'd say that 36000 terawatts should be sufficient for now.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    msnow
  • Jul 11, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Yes, just add the Hyperloop transport to ferry the car long distance very quickly :cool:

    upload_2016-7-11_17-55-9.png
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    Mkorpal
    A person can become totally fossil independent with one click of a mouse. Tesla Power sends you all the generation you need, solar or wind (or a combo) depending on where you live. Tesla Energy sends you the batteries to store the power you generate. Tesla Automotive sends you the vehicles you need to drive. Tesla Home sends you a new electric hot water heater, a new electric furnace, and a new electric lawn mower.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    SageBrush
    You joke, but I'll take that over the current state of affairs.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    TheTalkingMule
    I doubt that poster was joking, there's certainly nothing keeping Tesla from providing all of the above.

    As I've been saying for a while, once SCTY can remove most of it's sales cost it's super cheap. Ordering by mouse click means $2/W solar installs, the $1/W you save can be put toward a battery pack.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ccutrer
    Unfortunately for anyone living north of about California, that just isn't possible. Electric furnaces and electric cars use a LOT of power. Especially in winter. Right when your solar panels are producing a fraction of what they do in summer. I have a gas furnace, gas water heater, and all electric other appliances (including an electric hot tub). And a pretty dang big (12.42kW - as much as would fit on my house) solar system. Annually I'm pretty close to net zero. But if I were to truly not rely on the power grid, I would need dozens to hundreds of PowerWalls to get through the winter. In February I need to be able to reach back to energy "stored" the previous April in order to net zero. Now that I own a Tesla, I don't have a prayer of making net zero annually.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    ccutrer
    As a reply to myself, this is why utility scale adoption of solar panels is so important. They have much more land for solar panels, and can use much larger batteries. The two work in concert to not have to store as much for as long.

    Actually, now that I think about it - with an efficient enough power distribution system, you can use time zones to time shift solar production onto peak demand around the world. And summer in northern hemisphere to counterbalance winter in southern. That'd be pretty crazy awesome.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    FakeStewartAlsop
    Steam catapult on-ramps. $1 per use. Must come to a complete stop on the ramp to use it.
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    TaoJones
    With regard to billionaires becoming President, we're about to go 0-2, including the Texas Ferengi*. Most billionaires are too smart or not bored enough to want the job in the first place.

    With regard to the master plan redux, it helps to envision how the world could be in 10 years... How many GFs, how many post-Model 3s, how long it took for municipalities across the world to give more than lip service to a fundamental solar and EV transformation, and how many miles of Hyperloop tube/track exist globally.

    No time like the present. After all, time only accelerates.

    * that would be/have been one Ross Perot
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  • Jul 11, 2016
    GoTslaGo
    Awesome! Loved that one!

    For those who don't know, google a pic of Ross Perot. It will make total sense!
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    Gilzo
    My guess, at least a portion of it, will be about Mobility...an Uber like service that they'll launch once their production of the 3 catches up with the demand. If they don't use the 3, then it'll be a mobility service announcement along with an announcement of a new car to use with the mobility service.

    Either way, I think teslas long term plan (pertaining to cars) will incorporate an organic autonomous mobility service that'll compete with the Uber and lyfts of the world.

    Obviously in the big picture of the masterplan, tesla is no longer only a car company, they'll be an energy company. A one stop shop of production to storage to consumption...then wash, rinse, and repeat.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    Microfrost
    At the Code conference on June 1, Musk said of the Model 3, "We�re aiming for pencils down in about six weeks, complete pencils down." Six weeks from June 1 is tomorrow, July 13.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    EinSV
    I had forgotten this nugget from the original "Secret Master Plan":

    "This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution."?

    The Tesla automotive and current Tesla Energy business (batteries/storage) are essential pieces of the puzzle, but the "overarching purpose" for Tesla always has been the transition to a clean, primarily solar electric economy. Solar is really at the heart and center of the vision and what brings everything together.

    I think the Secret Master Plan 2 will have a heavy focus on solar, and how that brings all the pieces together for a sustainable future under one roof. Not just because Elon wants to close the SCTY deal, but because it is the final piece of the puzzle for Tesla, now that the automotive business is taking off and the storage business is about to.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    RDoc
    If the idea is to move away from hydrocarbons to solar-electricity, the plan would strongly focus on a major upgrade to the power grid and grid scale power storage.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    ecarfan
    Elon's Secret Master Plans are about what he has control over and can work to accomplish. The power grid is outside of his control. Individuals and businesses of course can do their own energy storage right now with Powerwalls and Powerpacks.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    JeffK
    Personal solar power systems are still super expensive. With the decline of net metering in many states, Tesla and SolarCity need to make both panels and storage much cheaper otherwise people can't afford it. The storage part looks to be on track but I don't know the details on the panels.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    googlepeakoil
    I've got it !!!
    A joint-venture with Nintendo for a car-based version of Pokemon Go - where you autopilot around a real-world road map with a heads-up 3d display showing you the Pokemon!
    It'll send the shareprice up 50% - bit like it did Nintendo this week.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    malcolm
    Powerwall All-in-One
    n x 6.4 kWh Battery Storage + Domestic Solar Panel system (+ optional integrated EV charging cable)

    Powerpack All-in-One
    n x 100kWh Battery Storage + Commercial Solar Array system (+ optional Supercharger Station with multiple stalls)
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    xav-
    Whatever it is Let's hope that the markets will like the "master plan"..

    ..Cuz I doubt the cash flows of the model S will be sufficient to pay for all this stuff ($8 billion solar city deal including debt etc, 500k cars a year by 2018) etc etc..

    I really hope that they are not going too far.. Last I check Tesla is not apple and Google. They don't have tens of billions of dollars sitting on bank accounts. I guess they are more like Amazon.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    JeffK
    The two companies Tesla and SolarCity combined would bring in 4.5 billion dollars of revenue a year as is. Sales of the Model 3 preorders alone will bring nearly 15 billion in revenue probably around 4 billion of that is pure profit.

    While they are still investing a lot in infrastructure and not showing a profit, Tesla still has a very bright future.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    TEG
    With all the talk of complete home energy solution, including possibly having Tesla provide solar panels directly, I wonder if Model 3 could be made to support V2G ?

    It would be nice to use your plugged-in model 3 as a back-up / buffer battery and not always require a powerwall.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    EV-lutioin
    Master Plan 2: Start delivering solar powered Teslas to Mars, by landing delivery rockets on a Martian sand barge?
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    malcolm
    Would be great to see V2G finally happen. You never know when the zombie apocalypse* will start.

    *Er...can it happen inside a computer simulation** controlled by alien overlords?

    **Aren't WE supposed to be the batteries***? Shouldn't that make it P2G?

    ***Can a zombie generate more bioelectricity than a 120 volt battery and over 25,000 BTUs of body heat? I'm thinking, no.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    Drax7
    if mpl2 includes free beer, all bets are off
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    M0DEL�
    So.... Lots of speculation in the press today that the "Secret Master Plan" includes transitioning away from being a retail car manufacturer and towards evolving into an automated for-service public transportation service.

    While this might be a good business model, and possibly quite beneficial for larger cities, it would not represent good news for many current Tesla fans, especially those in low-density/rural markets.

    The idea of a future Tesla being an energy company that also rents automated Taxi's & Buses, instead of selling cars - isn't all that appealing. But... the idea of eventually doing all the above... isn't a terrible thought-experiment.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    Model 3
    No no, not optional! This is how he wants to expand the supercharger network ;)
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    electracity

    I agree, he certainly can't say that they are moving beyond the car business. It has to be an expansion that includes the private car business.

    Clearly a large number of people do not buy that acquiring solarcity is vertical integration. Master plan II is to sell the solarcity acquisition, and probably rationalize entering the Uber business. "Clean Transport": Make the cars and the car power.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    TheTalkingMule
    SCTY press release today detailing 150 smart meters plus battery storage going to customers in San Jose in a collaboration with PG&E to show how "solar smart inverters and behind the meter energy storage could provide enhanced benefits to the grid".

    Certainly this type of grid services tech will be integral to the next Master Plan.
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    TEG
  • Jul 12, 2016
    Drivin
    They are "more like Amazon" in the same way my net worth is more like Oprah's than Bill Gates' net worth.

    As of end of year 2015.

    Amazon: Cash and ST investments: 19.9B (up 2.5B from previous year)
    Tesla: Cash and ST investments: 1.2B (down 700M from previous year)
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  • Jul 12, 2016
    adiggs
    Part of a sustainable solar based economy will be changing the way energy is created and consumed for industry / economy, not just personal home and transportation use. A big part. For manufacturing and many similar industrial sectors that get electricity via power lines, this all seems straightforward (panels on roofs, more panels elsewhere, wires to move the power around, battery banks to time shift and stabilize the power grid - all stuff we know conceptually from residential scale).

    The two major industries I see significant changes needed for today, are transportation and agriculture.

    Transportation - big rigs, long haul for example, air travel, mass transit, and shipping - is to some extent a further extension of what we're doing with personal transport. Keep extending into adjacent markets, and use the money from those adjacent markets to extend to additional adjacent markets. I see the Tesla Pickup Truck as being one instance in this very much larger world.

    The other is agriculture. Here we need tractors that can recharge overnight, and be used all day doing planting, seeding, mowing, and other agricultural tractor tasks. Start with smaller scale farms and tasks, but eventually the big combines need to transition.

    Our present food production processes are heavily dependent on fossil fuels for many of their inputs. The continued extension of these technologies into these two major industries (transport and agriculture) are what I want to see. I figure the transport side of things is obvious, and likely to be part of The Plan V2 - I want to see some notions about how the agriculture industry can be shifted (with a bonus - shifting agriculture to a solar based energy system can enable small to medium sized farms in poorer countries to leap over the whole fossil fuels thing, and increase their productivity).
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    Gen3
    The plan will include maximizing the potential synergy with solar, storage and electric cars.
    Becoming the best at manufacturing, increase manufacturing efficiency at least 3 fold.
    Using money to develop even cheaper car, Gen 4.
    Being a leader in autonomous technology.
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    AudubonB
    Newer members can't be expected to read ALL past posts, and there is no reason for me to harp on the following continuously, but many old-timers here know how incorrect is your assessment. Here is a pr�cis:

    * We have approximately 9,000 sq ft of living space, plus garages sufficient for five vehicles;
    * 10 bedrooms, 8 baths - so overall, most definitely on the far end of the consumption spectrum

    and our entire faceplate capacity of our solar panels is only 5.05kW -

    and, while I would like to increase the latter, and might be doing that in the near future, it is, absolutely demonstrably and utterly verifiably, able to service us completely.

    * Oh - and we live 80 miles from the nearest electrical grid, so we sure aren't drawing on that.
    * And are at just over 63�N lat.

    So your comment about NoGo for anyone north of California is shattered.

    Now - here is the reason:

    It is ALL in the batteries. That is, IF one sizes the battery bank appropriately, one can make do with far, far fewer PV panels than most consumers....or system sellers....either think or would want you to believe.

    Bottom line is that if TE truly has the battery portion of the equation licked, then all the other pieces fall into place. We have proved this for half a dozen years now, and that INCLUDES our really, really harsh, long, and very dark winters (although, as many old-timers also know, we've another solution for that now).
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    xav-
    You mean Tesla and Tesla. SolarCity is worth less. No doubt tesla making money selling the S. SolarCity is losing money at every solar installation and making it up on volume.
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    xav-
    Great point.. but many people have been calling Amazon as an overpriced unprofitable company for many years and many have been burned shorting it.
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    ecarfan
    With the announcement last year of Tesla Energy, it is clear that Tesla is already moving "beyond" the car business but that does not mean Tesla will ever stop producing cars and other vehicles.

    I agree with a lot of what @Gen3 has to say just above.
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    xav-
    Anyway I don't know what the story will be but I promise it will be a lot more entertaining and interesting than the 2016 presidential election.
    �
  • Jul 12, 2016
    TaoJones

    So true!

    While I'm at only 27-33�N much of the time, I've been completely sufficient with a solar setup that consists of many more batteries than panels. I've got room for more panels, but have no need. I'd add batteries and updated battery management parts and pieces and a more efficient inverter before even thinking of adding panels that at best would provide redundancy that so far hasn't been necessary in 14 years and counting.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    ccutrer
    Do you have a link to another thread or blog post or something discussing this, cause I would be intensely interested in your system. Cause WHOA. That's a HUGE house, with a tiny solar system. I'm assuming a pretty big battery bank, south facing (possibly tracking panels; I'm east and west), and probably a house that was designed from the beginning to be ultra energy conscious. And do you have electric water and heat, as was suggested in the post I was responding to? What about air conditioning in the summer - is that even necessary way up in Alaska?
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    ccutrer
    Found it: About the Sustainability of Denali Highway Cabins & Paxson Alpine Tours

    Anyhow, this does not go against my point that you can't simply convert the average home in the northern half of the continental united states to solar, electric heat, and electric water. You've gone to great pains to reduce your electrical usage, at the expense of what most people would consider common conveniences (TVs, microwaves, hair dryers, etc.), or by burning non-electrical energy sources for the greatest energy consumers (climate control).
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Interesting reading ... sounds like bare bones sustainable living :cool:

    [?IMG]

    [?IMG]
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    ccutrer
    Indeed. Not necessarily a bad thing. In the "Reduce, Reuse, Recycle" slogan, there's a reason that Reduce is first - it's the most effective.

    I am still curious about the actual size of the battery bank, and even with something huge, don't you still need to kick on the backup generator at least once every week or two in the winter? As I understand it, you get down to almost zero daylight hours for a long time there.

    Oh, and do you get glares when you take your Tesla out? For a place that budgets its electricity usage in probably 10s to 100s of Watt-hours at a time, blowing a few kWh just to go a couple of miles seems like quite the splurge. Especially since it looks like nothing is close and convenient.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    flamingoezz
    was there any word on how Elon will be announcing Master Plan: part two?
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    Johan
    He will do a little song and dance number on the New Jersey shore boardwalk.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    neroden
    Not actually possible. Induced demand. To a lesser extent, geometry (cars take up a huge amount space per person, so they always hit "congestion" quicker than anything else). Musk is an engineer. He'll figure this out if he bothers to do his research. Trains can avoid congestion for a while due to the insanely high capacity of a railway line (which is higher than the theoretical max capacity of Hyperloop, by the way), but induced demand catches up with them too. Mixed-use development helps by allowing people to live closer to work and play, which reduces the total amount of travel substantially, but induced demand still catches up.

    The only way to "solve" congestion permanently is to make places almost nobody wants to travel to. Sound good to you? Me neither.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    EinSV
    Lyft is experimenting with a true carpool app around SF. {{meta.title || 'A ride whenever you need one' }}{{meta.signoff || ' - Lyft'}}

    Not sure how the experiment is working out but software like that has the potential to make a huge dent in congestion if people are willing to use it, especially during rush hour. If you did something similar with self-driving vehicles it could be a very efficient and flexible transport system in some locations.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    SageBrush
    'Induced Demand' sounds like a pretty good rule of thumb, along the same lines as the critique of conservation by the Austrian school of Economics.

    I'd be leery though of over-generalization. Life has a way of throwing in non-linear dynamics that wreck havoc with simplistic models.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    AudubonB
    Good sleuthing - now, use your obvious powers of deductive and inductive reasoning to figure out why this statement of yours:

    Interesting reading ... sounds like bare bones sustainable living

    is a giggle. Hint: we host between 680 and 1,000 guests each year, and seemingly all the ladies and half the men just have to have their hair perfectly coiffed to.....look at moose? Dunno, but between that and all the electric kettles going (plus all our refrigerators and freezers and our own microwaves and toaster ovens, none of which work too well on propane or firewood), "bare bones" is not the operative description. We do try to impress responsible consumption upon our clients but that 4X4 across a mule's forehead doesn't always seem to work.

    Again, and as TaoJones likewise avers: it is all in the battery bank. Our own bank is immense by yesterday's standards, but if TE really and truly gets its act together, in short order ours no longer will seem remarkable.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    ccutrer
    I'm really curious - how big is your battery bank? And type? And it really gets you through the winter with little to no use of a backup generator? I'm very duly impressed.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    ccutrer
    Oh, and inverter size for peak power. I'm assuming it's larger than your 5 kW solar array to meet peak demand. Totally opposite of lots of grid tie systems where you undersized the inverter, cause 99% of the time you're never at nameplate production capacity.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    AudubonB
    16kW inverters - taking 48VDC from the bank into 240VAC. 1150Ah @ 48V. Direct from the PV panels I'd get diddlysquat.

    Our backup generator - is going on its 7th year... it's got 292 hours on its clock - less than two weeks' total usage. And MOST of that time is on regular "turnover" maintentance, plus some times when I...or lightning...fried some of the inverters and I absolutely had to run directly on the 30kW diesel genset.

    If it hadn't been the case that our late and utterly unlamented local utility company had raised rates to $4.15/kWh (no typo there, folks!) then I wouldn't have been impelled as well as compelled to emplace this system - those batteries are EXPENSIVE!. But I never stopped to thank them for that dunderheaded move of theirs.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2016
    TaoJones
    I'll take blog posts for $200 and a supporting tweet as the daily double.

    Followed by a veritable plethora of cloned media stories.
    �
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