Thứ Hai, 23 tháng 1, 2017

Predictions part 1

  • May 11, 2016
    N5329K
  • May 11, 2016
    Tiberius
    Is it?
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  • May 11, 2016
    N5329K
    Only if you think some perspective on the many current predictions is useful, or interesting, which I do.
    Robin
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  • May 12, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    I would guess that the average sale price of a Model 3 in the first year of deliveries is going to be north of $50,000...probably closer to 60K. In subsequent years I could see the average price coming down as more base models are ordered and delivered.

    Dan
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  • May 12, 2016
    ummgood
    Elon might be somewhat pessimistic but he said the average price is estimated to be 42k on the initial pre-orders. Frankly he and the team at Tesla are the only ones who know what the actual option pricing/availability will be. He also knows what the average person orders on a Model S and can probably extrapolate from that.

    I agree that initially the first cars will be more because they'll be "Highly optioned cars" but I think the article from 2014 was a bit premature given some statements from Elon.
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  • May 14, 2016
    MO Joule
    Tesla didn't estimate $35K. That's the published base price. Elon has stated the average cost would likely be around $42K. I suspect very few base models (if any) will be sold in the first year, as they've said they'll produce more heavily optioned cars first.
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  • May 14, 2016
    JeffK
    What do you think the average $42k cost Elon estimated included with regards to options to total $42k?

    I'm guessing
    base + AWD + pano roof + ?
    35k + < 5k + 1.5k + ? = 42k
    There's likely room for one more item, but I'm not sure what he thinks people will get on average.
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  • May 14, 2016
    melindav
    upgraded paint? really depends where SC and AP land too. if those are a line item, would expect most to add them on.
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  • May 14, 2016
    JeffK
    I honestly think supercharging is going to be totally free. From everything I've ever read about their business model they have no plans to "charge" for supercharging anymore. (pun intended).

    Supercharging is the thing that eases people's minds when transitioning from an ICE.
    �
  • May 14, 2016
    malcolm
    Agreed. To some extent I think that Elon must be pretty pissed that other car makers haven't come forward to make use of Supercharger technology nor the Tesla patents.

    All we've seen is a Tesla (ahem) "clone" from China, and far too many hybrid concepts posing as Model S killers for 2019 and beyond.

    I shouldn't be surprised, but nevertheless it is disheartening to realise that kick-starting a revolution has to start with an awful lot of kicking.
    �
  • May 14, 2016
    JeffK
    Especially in Europe. Tesla superchargers are currently the fastest chargers in the world and yet other manufacturers want to go with lower standards.

    To gain more traction in China, Tesla partnered with the Chinese Gov't to support their new national standard at Tesla charging stations.
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  • May 14, 2016
    ratsbew
    Superchargers will become a huge liability if they don't implement a pay-per-kWh model. I'm an advocate of the pay-per-kWh model because it will limit abuse of the network as well as funding its maintenance and expansion.

    I'm perfectly okay paying for my electricity as long as it's around 10-15 cents per kWh.
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  • May 14, 2016
    JeffK
  • May 14, 2016
    wdolson
    I would guess the two most common upgrades will be the AP, larger battery, and AWD. It's unknown if supercharging will be extra on the base models.
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  • May 14, 2016
    ArtC
    If TM charges per kWh, they'll have to be regulated by state and local governments as a utility, and therefore defeating the purpose.
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  • May 14, 2016
    Jersey Shore Tom
    I predict that the Model 3 will have:

    a range >= 215 miles
    a base price very close to $35,000.00
    an average price > $35,000.00
    AP hardware included
    Supercharger hardware included
    and of course, cowbell
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  • May 14, 2016
    electracity
    The little EV charging companies install pay chargers nationally. Certainly Tesla can have a per kWh fee for the Model 3.

    I would rather pay Tesla $.20/kWh than have free charging included in the M3 base price. I don't want Tesla attracting M3 buyers looking for "free gas" and hogging superchargers. I do want Tesla to have continuous revenue to expand the supercharger network faster.
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  • May 14, 2016
    JeffK
    That would be about the same price per charge as my Prius to fill up with gas and the Tesla will get less range. This wouldn't benefit me.
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  • May 14, 2016
    electracity
    Most people fill up their Tesla's at home.
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  • May 15, 2016
    garsh
    All of those other companies charge by the hour specifically to avoid being regulated as a power company.

    Look, this is all nonsense. The supercharger network is a negligible ongoing cost for Tesla. If they were to start charging for its use, they would have to add all sorts of employees and software to track use, billing, and customer support issues. And it helps sell Tesla cars by being a huge differentiator compared to other 200+ mile range EVs - it means you can road-trip a Tesla, just like a normal car, and unlike every other EV available. There is no way that Tesla will want to ruin this huge selling advantage and increase their overhead costs by implementing billing for it.
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  • May 15, 2016
    gregincal
    No existing charger charges per kWh. They either charge a fixed fee or per minute.
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  • May 15, 2016
    Topher
    As usual this is being presented with the wrong voice. What Elon was saying is that the average price people would decide to pay would be $42,000. Those cars are already, in some sense, sold. He has no control over their final price, that is totally on the buyer. They also aren't likely to ask all 400,000 people to configure at the same time. So they can't optimize all the high optioned cars to the front.

    Thank you kindly.
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  • May 15, 2016
    Topher
    I pay more than than from the electric company. If you are willing to pay per use for the supercharger network, it is going to be a lot more than that.

    Thank you kindly.
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  • May 15, 2016
    wdolson
    If somebody else decides to join the Supercharger network and have their cars use them, Tesla has to come up with some way to divide up the use and charge the other company, even if it continues to be free to Tesla owners.
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  • May 15, 2016
    ummgood
    What is the average price of the Model S models sold? Then given that maybe we could figure out maybe what options 42k might get you.
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  • May 15, 2016
    Topher
    I think that EM said that the car company would pay Tesla, and having that company charge their customers, similarly to how Tesla charges (i.e. not piecemeal). Tesla would not be charging those customers directly.

    Thank you kindly.
    �
  • May 15, 2016
    wdolson
    The average price ranges from around $100K to $110K. The S90D with many extras is the average.

    From the Model S order tracking spreadsheet, the breakdown of types is:

    Q1 2016
    70 - 13.6%
    70D - 25.8%
    85/90/85D/90D - 55.7%
    P85D/P90D - 5.6%

    People are going for the longest range cars with good performance, but not the top tier performance.
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  • May 15, 2016
    wdolson
    They still need to track usage, even if they aren't charging the end users directly.
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  • May 16, 2016
    John Beans
    Guess a percent that will just buy base $35K. Graph shows you average of everyone else. Based on Elon's $42K ASP comment and simple averages. Assumes he has a good gauge on costs/customers/margins.

    [?IMG]
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  • May 16, 2016
    JeffK
    Why is that if the power comes from solar? They'd probably need to track supercharger congestion to know when to expand the network.
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  • May 16, 2016
    melindav
    Only a small of the SCs are solar. Most come right from the local grid, so source will vary depending on the part of the country/world you are in.
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  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    Thanks! So given that Elon said that the average Model 3 would cost $42k I am guessing he used average configuration of the Model S to make an educated guess on what the average Model 3 buyer would configure...

    I figured that I would configure a Model S and then 'assume' that I could get the same options on a Model 3 for 42k that would cost 100k on a Model S.

    Here is what I was able to configure on a Model S for 100k.
    Extended Range
    Dual Motor
    Metallic Paint
    Leather Seats
    Pano Roof
    Auto Pilot
    Premium Upgrades


    I am guessing the same options on a model 3 will be in the ballpark of 42k. I am sure that some of these packages won't be as "luxury" for example premium upgrades might not have a power trunk but I would expect it to have the black headliner. I don't think this is too far fetched to predict in this way...
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  • May 16, 2016
    electracity
    I think 42K may be the median once early adopter demand is satisfied, but the mean is considerably higher.

    If Musk publically guessed at a high mean, the press will say that the M3 is not his promised $35K car.
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  • May 16, 2016
    182RG
    If you recall, the price estimate for the Model S was wildly off. Anybody take delivery of a $60K Model S? Anybody? (Actually, I believe the original quote was "$55K - $60K")

    Tesla announces the Model S: a $60k, all-electric, five passenger sports sedan

    Tesla numbers always seem to be "dog" numbers. Time, cost, quantity.

    I'll predict again. You won't see a Model 3 delivered below $55K before 2020, if at all.
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  • May 16, 2016
    melindav
    generally speaking, someone buying a Model S is not going to be as concerned with the bottom line as who will be buying the Model 3, so do think a good amount will be at the base price.

    I 'predict' the price breakdown will be something like:

    25% at or near 35,000
    50% 36,000-47,000
    20% 47,000-60,000
    5% over 60,000
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  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    LOL. No way in hell you are getting the car with the options you listed at $42K.

    Maybe EM knows that the M3 buyer is more budget conscious and won't option the cars as heavily as the Model S buyers who are typically much higher income.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    Boy, I hope you're right!

    I am thinking that all of the options you list will cost you more like 60K. At least that is what I am planning on.

    Dan
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  • May 16, 2016
    electracity

    M3 configuration is by date. You are saying that some buyers will be allowed to configure, but that their cars won't be built for literally years. That is not going to happen.

    I do agree that low/no margins builds will be limited so that margins look acceptable each quarter. I also think that Tesla likely has no positive margin in the base car.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    This can be resolved with a little bit of self driving capability. Maybe the car will automatically charge to something reasonable, like 90%, and then disconnect and move itself to a new parking spot if you're not around.

    The benefit is that if you're on a road trip and pull over to eat, this will take care of disconnecting and moving your car around while you might be inside of a restaurant.

    Edit: If you're talking about a liability from Tesla's perspective, and financially, then that's a different story and my post only intended to discuss a waiting time to charge.
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  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    Different market. They are competing with entry level luxury cars that have great gas mileage from Mercedes, BMW and Audi.

    You think they will ship the 400K pre orders if they can't deliver models at the promised $35K price? I don't.

    With Model S they were selling to the very well heeled as well as those willing to take on the equivalent of a 2nd mortgage because they were on a religious crusade about EVs.

    Now they are going after customers who have many other choices in this price range, not to mention that many seem to be coming from much more modest transportation and an optioned M3 is going to be a stretch for them, even with the tax credits.

    I think Tesla will put a few must have options in such as AWD and mid range battery that will move the price up for many buyers but there is no way they will survive if they don't ship cars that cost less than 55K before 2020.
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  • May 16, 2016
    N5329K
    I agree.
    Robin
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  • May 16, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    It is my understanding that after employee's cars are built they will open up the design studio by region, build the highly optioned cars first, then the lower end cars. Once those are in the works, open up the next region and so on. Am I interpreting this wrong?

    Dan
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    The only thing I could think of is that it might depend on the lead time they want. So if you have to design your car 3 months before delivery, then you'll select your options before employees take delivery. Who knows if that's 3 months or 6 months, but I'm guessing the lead time will push design by region to be done before employees get their cars built.
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  • May 16, 2016
    182RG
    History is a good predictor of future behavior, so look no further than the S and X. Based on that case, highly optioned, geographic region, then date within that region will be the priority. All of which Tesla controls and offers no visibility. Two years from now, TMC will be the hot bed of discontent threads over sequencing, configuration, production, and deliveries.

    So, I think it will happen. How many Model X 70 kWh have been configured and built?

    Why do you think the recent hype over ramping up production was released? The fear of people abandoning reservations over the wait is very real.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    Few things:

    1) It's going to be a tradeoff. There were some Model S cars that were leaking in car washes, for example. So a later model is likely to have a little less number of problems.

    2) The tax credit could become a big item for many people. If I wasn't getting any tax credit, I wouldn't be able to get the Model 3 at this time. I would probably wait another 5 years for prices to come down on their own.
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  • May 16, 2016
    182RG
    Did you get that in writing? I didn't.

    �Either way, just being first in line at your local Tesla store on March 31 won�t necessarily determine your place in the Model 3 reservation queue. The Reservation Agreement makes that crystal clear. �We will establish your reservation sequence position in our sole discretion. We may decline reservations to avoid over-subscription or as we deem appropriate in our sole discretion. If your reservation is declined or we decide to cancel your reservation, you will be notified and your Reservation Payment will be refunded.�

    Specifics Of Tesla Model 3 Reservations Revealed
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  • May 16, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    It would be interesting to have an idea of how many reservationists view the tax credit as a deal breaker item. I am treating the tax credit as an unexpected bonus should I fall within the parameters. I am not budgeting for it however. Don't know how many would feel differently.

    Dan
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  • May 16, 2016
    electracity
    From My Tesla page:

    "You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."

    I guess technically it doesn't say "in reservation order", but waiting years to configure seems to be inconsistent with the above statement.
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  • May 16, 2016
    182RG
    Actually, my 2020 prediction is based more on capacity and ramp up, than $. I think they'll be lucky to get 100K cars out the door by 2020. 500K by 2018? I just can't see a way that happens. Sorry.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Topher
    Which they already do. There is a video around that shows their supercharger scoreboard (couldn't find it on short notice).

    Thank you kindly.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    I think if you are in Ohio and ordering a base model it is pretty unlikely you will get the full tax credit since you are probably in the "last" or close to last delivery area for the continental USA and they have already said they are shipping more fully loaded cars first.
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  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    if Tesla can't get more than 100K cars out the door by 2020 then they are finished. I'm not saying it is easy or trivial but there is no way they can survive if they maintain position as a money hemorrhaging builder of high end boutique EVs. The market just isnt big enough.

    They might not hit the production numbers EM is claiming but they will have to get to at least 50%. Most people who pre ordered aren't going to wait 4+ years on a car. Totally impractical for most.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    My impressions are that Elon and everyone else at Tesla are well aware of their shortcomings in delivery with the X and S, and realize that they can not make promises anymore without a high degree of confidence they can be achieved. This whole phenomenon with the Model 3 is uncharted territory in automotive history. Obtaining almost half a million reservations for a product not expected to be available for, at best guess, a year is something nobody planned for or expected.

    I think Elon and his staff are much more on top of what they can and can't deliver then they were for the Model S or Model X rollouts. This venture is somewhat of a leap of faith for us all. I have confidence that Tesla will live up to expectations.

    Dan
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  • May 16, 2016
    N5329K
    Dan:
    The people in my local Tesla store confirmed your take on things, though, in all fairness, they might not know much more than we do.
    Robin
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    I'm hoping to get one with options like 2-4k above the median of 42k. Let's see how the 2nd part of the unveiling pans out and what the manufacturing schedule looks like.
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  • May 16, 2016
    gregincal
    You'll be invited to configure, but that says nothing about when you are going to get your car. For both the Model S and the Model X they announced about when they were going to start shipping certain lower config cars. You could be first in line to configure, but if you choose one of those configurations you don't get your car until then. They then ask the next set of people to configure until they have the pipeline filled of the configurations they want to build. How long from the first shipments until they are finally building the lowest configured base models is anybody's guess.
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  • May 16, 2016
    gregincal
    Who knows, but I think it much more likely they will ship the higher optioned cars across the country before they move on to the lower configs.
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  • May 16, 2016
    electracity
    I wonder how much people waiting for the model 3 will distort new cars sales. People generally buy new based on want, not need. The vast majority of new car buyers would not consider the S/X due to price. What happens when a car is desirable and within financial reach, but not available?

    Once Musk fully reveals spaceship model 3 I think a lot of younger new car buyers will be further turned off by traditional cars. The many car manufacturers that resisted integrating carplay found out that they lost sales based upon what they hoped was a minor consumer preference by iphone users. I expect the model 3 is going to unleash a magnitude greater level of pain.
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  • May 16, 2016
    John Beans
    I predict that Tesla's drive to be an industry leader, their focus on streamlining costs, and their confidence in their future scale will lead to "surprisingly affordable" prices�at least to this enthusiast audience�when they are revealed. This is, after all, a car primarily positioned as "the car for the mainstream" and not a continuation of prior premium positioning and modest production scale. Tesla will set prices like they have a 500K production rate and thus guarantee that they get there, a bit of a virtuous cycle. They will not exploit the early buyers and wait to lower prices when full production rate is achieved; this would predictably lead to ill will. Instead, they will price the same during the campaign to reach 500K. They will understand that as long as consumer interest is rabid, Wall Street will grumble but will forgive short-term impact on margins.

    This will lead to a bit of an "options rush," especially as confidence grows in Tesla's ability to be able to time production to exploit the tax break. It will be like when you are in a restaurant and the manager gives you a price break on your meal and you bump up the tip you were planning to give your server; people will get a few more options than they normal would without the tax break.

    I expect the second reveal to be pretty inspiring, leading to a "mini-panic" over buying enough options to ensure a good delivery date. I think the big demand will be "Can you tell us exactly which options will speed up or slow down our order?" Despite this, I think the base interior will be of such an appealing nature that most will very satisfied with it, and that "take rates" of any premium interior upgrade will be lower than for BMW's 3 Series luxury upgrade. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one sort of upgrade (random, but luxury strikes me as a valid candidate) lags a bit in terms of production validation or disproportionate "takt time" on the floor and actually might hurt delivery time.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla upgrades the standard conductors and electronics so that performance and Ludo are soft options once you have the correct motors, either base or upgraded (it's what I would do, less complexity and more common scale). Perhaps they'll even do away with having two different rear motors (one base and one performance), and just make "single or dual motor" the only hardware-based performance option. So you'd choose to move to dual motors, and then the performance upgrade(s) would be soft, just like the (surprisingly) recent 5K battery upgrade.

    I predict a solid majority of reservations are for cars that will price out < ~ $40K. The nature of the mainstream demand curve.

    Finally, I predict that a max perf 3 will be below $60K, but not surpass the P90D in 0-60 times.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    I really hope you are correct on all accounts.

    Dan
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  • May 16, 2016
    electracity
    The auto industry is a 100 years of brutal competition. The survivors are very efficient. Tesla is working to get to the Fiat level as a manufacturer.

    Where Tesla can gain a competitive advantage is in cell and pack making at the gigafactory. This is a new type of manufacturing and there is a lot of efficiencies to be invented.
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  • May 16, 2016
    McHoffa
    They could charge for the time the car is plugged in charging, let's say $4/30 minutes of charging, which would equal roughly about 40 kWh @ $0.10/kWh at the rate a Model S charges for the first 80%. You'd end up paying more per kWh after that first 30 minutes, but that would be fine as usually you're not charging to 100% from empty anyway. I'd gladly pay $4 to top it off at each stop on a trip vs having them all hogged by leeches getting free power.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    That's not a bad idea. Free power, but you have to pay for the "parking space." It would get around the regulations.
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  • May 16, 2016
    McHoffa
    and Elon likes to play the system
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  • May 16, 2016
    JeffK
    They would need an entire workforce dedicated to implementing a billing system and having to maintain POS terminals at all the supercharging locations.... I just don't see this becoming a top priority for Tesla.

    I mean if there was a zombie apocalypse, I'm going to be relying on a self sustaining solar powered Tesla Supercharger and I'd hope it's still free.
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  • May 16, 2016
    N5329K
    Why couldn't the car wirelessly communicate with the charger, the handshake allows the charger to identify the car, its owner, it tracks usage and Tesla sends out a monthly electric bill? Wait too long to pay and your handshake gets disallowed.
    Robin
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    Has anyone done the math on just how much of a charge those solar panels can provide? If they're just on the roof above the charging areas, my guess is that they can't even produce enough power for 1 full charge every day.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Booga
    Yeah - this would be entirely automated. As soon as you plug in the charger, it should have an RFID tag or something that allows it to identify the car and start the charging while billing your CC. It's no different than iTunes except that they might give you some credit so you just get billed once a month. Or you pre-purchase charging time in 10 hour increments.
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  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    Perhaps...

    I think if Elon wants this to be more a mass marketable car than the Model S then he needs to get into a lower price range for options that people expect on a 45k car. For example if I buy a 45k car I expect to get leather, more than 2 paint choices, range at least somewhat close to a gas car, a sunroof, etc...

    That is basically what I configured. The only thing that isn't really necessary is AWD but you need it on the Model S to get the upgraded battery.

    I know it isn't popular opinion but you can get a Maxima with everything I listed above for less than 40k. I think if I have to spend 55 or 60k for the Model 3 with a sunroof, leather, silver paint, extended range, and auto pilot then I might decide it isn't time yet for me to go electric.
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  • May 16, 2016
    Xminus6
    I have 41 SunPower 335w panels on the roof of my house. They've only been active for a couple months but the best day just breaks past the 90kWh mark. So A full-to-empty charge takes nearly a whole Spring day with a pretty substantial amount of surface area.
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  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    I hope I am right too. See my reply above for my take on it. Honestly if I have to spend 60k on those options and am not getting a 'P' version I might ask for my reservation money back. I can definitely afford the car but I am really cheap and this is my one car splurge. I was planning on a certified used or even new Audi S5 and at 60k for the Model 3 for a sunroof, leather, extended range, and silver paint I think the car is still in extreme luxury territory. At that price it isn't intended for upper middle class if you ask me.
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  • May 16, 2016
    JeffK
    True. They are solar complimented charging stations. I've heard they generate 24kW peak so through the course of a day you might be able to offset 2-3 charges assuming they aren't charging from 0%. Now if you have people only using it for long distance travel you might only get that many in a normal day... might even have days with zero people, extra gets stored or goes back to the grid.
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  • May 16, 2016
    gregincal
    Well, maybe not 60K but probably 50K. Extended range alone might bump it to 42K. As far as comparisons, if you go from a BMW 320 to a BMW 340 (a larger engine is the ICE equivalent of a larger battery) it moves you to a mid 40K starting price.
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  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    That makes sense and I probably wouldn't be that upset about that. Honestly I am hoping to be in at 60k or less and I want a PxxD with leather, sunroof, silver/midnight paint, and auto pilot. I'll see where I fall. I can definitely justify an extra 10k over a Maxima for a Tesla with the same features but much more would make me really question my sanity.

    To keep it in perspective I am driving a 11 year old Toyota Tacoma. I have always been frugal with cars even though I could afford a nicely equipped BMW or Audi. I have trouble getting over the hurdle of the luxury car segment. This would be a real SPLURGE for me as far as my mentality goes. My wife has the nicer car because I like to pamper her a bit but her car is still a Odyssey Touring Elite. I choked a bit paying 41k for that car haha. Before the Tesla Model 3 was announced I was seriously considering the top optioned Maxima which is about the same price as my wife's van.

    This car will probably be my last big splurge. I am 40 but I hope it will last me at least 10 years. Then my kids will be gone and I am hoping I can commute some other way to work and we can be a single car family. Perhaps sell our house in the burbs and live in a condo downtown.
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  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    My 340xi was $58,900 sticker and is missing about $4,000 in options still. The "ludicrous" speed version "M3" starts at $65,000 and goes to nearly $80K if you want all the bells and whistles (admittedly it has a race tuned suspension and chassis unlike anything Tesla has done on their sedans).

    Tesla wants to compete in luxury space which means prices in line with Mercedes C class, Audi A4, BMW 3 series. Not Maxima.

    In the lux space you always get irritated that cheaper cars from Toyota, GM, Hyundai are fully loaded at lux starting prices. We buy/lease them because they are far more enjoyable to drive and some see them as status symbols.
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  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    Thanks for the info I really do appreciate it. Honestly I get a different impression from Tesla. I don't think they really are trying to compete with anyone. I think they want to bring electric cars main stream. The initial desire was that they would prove the concept and a lot of the ICE manufacturers would also jump on board and use their patents to bring electric cars mainstream. We know that didn't happen.

    I think the reason Tesla is currently competing in the Luxury space is the car (Model S) was a stepping point to get to the Model 3. They had to build a car at that cost level to make the Model 3 possible. Elon has said that over and over again and even mentioned it in the unveiling of the Model 3. Now he said the Model 3 would be similar to a 3 series or a Audi A4 but that doesn't mean he is trying to compete in the luxury space. I think if Elon can attract people who would be in the market for a loaded Maxima he'll try to get those folks in an Electric vehicle. Even then a Audi S5 Premium Plus with auto, leather, sunroof, black headliner, silver paint, is in the 51k range. I honestly think that is what the average person is going to want. They will want leather, sunroof, upgraded paint. That is where I am basing my 42k Elon average and options on.
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  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    An S5 with auto transmission, paint and Napa leather is $55,000. With technology package it is almost $59,000. S5 is also an odd comparison choice as it is a coupe. Better comparison is S4 and those usually go for upper 50's to get features must buyers want (that come standard on Japanese and domestic cars at 1/2 the price) such as parking AIDS, navigation, etc.

    Elon has repeatedly used German luxury cars as the benchmark for tesla and I think there is little doubt that is who he is competing with.

    Choice is a great thing. Someone with $40K to spend gets the choice of a pretty stripped model 3 or a fully loaded Bolt.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    Sorry I meant to type S4. Anyways without the nappa leather the A4 still comes with leather/alcantra. The M3 without leather will have cloth. Plus I just configured a base premium plus A4 and it starts at 49k. The paint option is 575. I don't think the cost of the auto should be included because that is a complicated expensive beast that isn't even compared on the M3.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    N5329K
    Play around with this:
    Build Your Own
    And you can see what the Model 3 is (or will be) up against. When I was done I was right at $39K.
    Robin
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    ummgood
    It will be interesting to see who they compare closer to. BMW 340xi is pushing 51k for leather, paint, sunroof, tech package. The Audi A4 you can get a A4 Premium Plus with Leather, sunroof, full LED lights, Auto, AWD, B&O sound, paint for $47,500

    All I was trying to do was take Elon's predictions of average price and then figure out what options an average consumer would want on their Model 3. I can't wait to find out! After all like the rest of us I am just taking a stab in the dark.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    voip-ninja
    The Audi competitor to the 340i is the S4 not the A4. A4 competes with 328i.

    I think price averages will run higher than many here will be comfortable with and I had not seen Tesla confirm cloth upholstery on model 3 which is quite a low rent choice (Mercedes MBTEX is much better than cloth in my opinion and is standard in US market).

    I suspect AWD, extended battery range, autopilot, moonroof, leather is going to be bumping into $50-$55K territory but that is just my guess;

    $35,000 base
    $1000 premium paint
    $2,000 premium interior
    $7,500 AWD + mid-range battery.
    $2,500 autopilot.
    $1500 moonroof.

    $50,000 and I think I'm guessing on the low side.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    sleepyhead
    Can you please expand on what you mean by the "recent 5K battery upgrade?"

    Thanks
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    electracity
    If that was true, this thread would not exist. We and a half million other people would just go out and buy a BMW.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    Dan Detweiler
    I believe he refers to the recent OTA update for Model S owners that upped the battery capacity of the 70 kilowatt battery to 75.

    Dan
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    N5329K
    If it were electric. But I think that's the direct comparison in terms of quality, entry-level luxury, size, performance and looks. No?
    Robin
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    zenmaster
    Yes, and the non-internet forum, real-world comparison shoppers will be evaluating based on those industry-standard features. Tesla knew this very well when it decided to take on the 3 series or A4 market.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    gregincal
    Well, you didn't have all wheel drive or drivers assistance plus (the BMW autopilot like features), so $39K probably is similar to the price you will end up with for the Model 3. Just to get those two things without a single additional option and you're starting at 46K. I was up well over 50K in no time configuring a 3 series how I plan to get my Model 3.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    David_Cary
    AWD alone is probably $4k so $7500 for a battery and AWD is super low. The rest of your prices seem fine.

    I personally expect $35k will be pretty base.
    Electric seats $1000
    Leater seats $1500
    Nav /internet access $1500
    Supercharger $2000.

    So that is about what $42k will get you. I don't know why so many people think Tesla can magically make a S for $35k even if it is a little smaller/lighter and "mass produced".

    The base BMW 3 series is pretty stripped and very few people buy one. Why would the 3 be much different?

    I personally think they could sell all they could produce until 2020 even if ASP is $55k. There are tons of buyers ready for a nice electric for $55k - probably 200,000 a year in the US alone and 400,000 worldwide.

    So many people here are saying they won't buy one if it gets that expensive. I say - don't worry - there are lots of people in the world who will. Technically there are 3,000,000 1%ers in the US alone.....
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    Mkorpal
    I think paint winds up being quite a bit lower than that. Audi charges $575 for metallic on the A4. BMW $565 on the 3 series. $1000 is way over the closest competing vehicles. I think $750 at most.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    CarlitoDoc
    Ok, I told myself I would not bite, but here it goes: If you look at the most current Model S configurator, you can easily spend over $30K on options. I do not expect those to be "priced lower" for the model 3, so I agree with most posters that a fully loaded Model 3 will easily be in the $65 to $70K range.
    �
  • May 16, 2016
    Mkorpal
    A maxed out S is 70K or so over base. I'm doubting a maxed out 3 will be 70K over base. Some options will be cheaper (we already know dual motors will be) and some options will probably not be available.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    electracity
    Ludicrous will probably be $10K. I think the high price could be $80K if they can fit a big battery in the car. Ludicrous plus big battery could put the car at $60K. Easy to get above $70k. Those nice wheels and 20" tires shown at the preview can't be inexpensive.

    I suppose some options like air suspension could be less expensive on the model 3 compared to the bigger cars.

    That would be great, but I suspect $10K +
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    JeffK
    I've got it... My prediction for the Model 3, the killer feature: capacitors in between the battery and motor. This is probably the easiest way in a smaller battery pack to offer ludicrous power levels and still maintain the goal of longer range.

    If not now then in the Roadster 2.0 to achieve Maximum Plaid...
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    Topher
    Assuming the footprint of a Tesla parking space is 15' x 10' and a panel angle of 15� due South, that gives us 155 ft� of panel space. Which could produce about 2.8 kW of power, a small fraction of the 120 kW of instantaneous power that the Supercharger requires. It could produce between 10 and 23 kWh of energy per day (depending on location), so about 15% of a charge per day.

    So, yes, the solar panels will need to cover more than just the parking spaces taken up by the station itself. They will probably need to cover the entire parking lot that the Supercharger station is in, thus shading all the other cars and preventing them from heating up, and needing energy for AC.

    Thank you kindly.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    MiamiNole
    I wouldn't say it's a deal breaker for me, moreso that it would move the timeline on when I decide to purchase the car. I don't necessarily need to buy a Model 3 as soon as it is released. My current car is working just fine and probably will be for the next several years. Unless the stock market spikes heavily or something within the next few years, I probably won't have the $42k+ or so to buy the Model 3 with the options I want cash, so I most likely will need to finance a portion of the car. Put those together and there isn't a reason for me to buy the car ASAP. I'd rather just save up and buy it at the optimal time for me. However, with the tax credit, there is incentive for me to buy the car ASAP. Of course, the price of the options I want would determine whether it's feasible to get the car early with the tax credit, or wait and save some more for it. I'm sure I'm not the only person here using that line of thinking...
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    garsh
    Sure, if you ignore the fact that capacitors are generally a hundred times larger and ten times as expensive as a battery that holds the same energy. ;)
    What�s the Difference Between Batteries and Capacitors?
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    Topher
    Some capacitors would improve the performance of a naively made BEV. The efficiency losses for very short term storage are much lower with capacitors, so put a few in as the first thing that gets charged during regenerative braking.

    Thank you kindly.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    JeffK
    You don't need to hold nearly the same energy... you only need enough for initial acceleration (probably under 1.5 - 2 kW would work fine). The cost is actually lower than you think as well. The goal is to augment the battery to provide max amps for the motor. You can blow away ludicrous mode and use the motor's full potential instead of being limited to 1500 Amps.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    TravelSD80
    Makes sense, but highly doubt the M3 would ever see this given it's not even an option on S/X. If Tesla ever does do this, I'd think it would start out on S/X. And I'd also expect to pay dearly for it as an option.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    JeffK
    Last year a company quoted $100 per kWh also remember that Elon was wanting to research super-capacitors at Stanford. He's very interested in super-capacitors if the price was reasonable.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    Booga
    Thanks for doing that :)

    Given that it's so little, I naturally wonder why Tesla would bother with the solar panels on some of these. They're better off buying land and putting solar panels out in bulk rather than a small amount on top of the roof of a supercharger if their goal is to supply power via solar.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    JeffK
    It depends on the location... some locations have 96 panels 200-300 peak watts a piece.

    If you include all the time people are not charging across the globe at some of these stations the end goal is for Tesla to provide as much energy back to the grid as they use.
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    Alketi
    This post has some better examples of solar powered Superchargers. Solar power complemented Superchargers

    As JeffK pointed out, these are packing 90-100 panels. At 250W / panel these would be generating ~35MW / year.

    [?IMG]
    �
  • May 17, 2016
    aronth5
    The heck with solar panels I just want a roof to keep the snow and rain away:), but while they at it just add some solar panels
    �
  • May 18, 2016
    Topher
    Because every bit counts, and is basically fungible. If you are going to put a roof over the chargers, it might as well be made of solar panels. I always assumed that Tesla would be putting in larger arrays, if their goal is to 100% offset the use of the energy use of superchargers. That said, unless the Supercharger is in a location with unreliable power, there isn't really any need to offset the energy locally, better to put the panels where there is a lot of sun.

    Nice to see that Tesla understands how to arrange a roof full of solar panels, unlike Peugeot.

    100 panels at 250 Watts is still only 25kW, so insufficient power for even one charger. And at most 200 kWh / day, so maybe 3 full charges in a day. Need WAY more panels.

    Thank you kindly.
    �
  • May 18, 2016
    JeffK
    Due to natural range anxiety I could see more people "topping off" rather than a full charge unless they are truly traveling long distance. Plus I think Tesla is relying on more of a net effect from all superchargers with solar panels across the grid and energy storage for days when few people charge if any.

    Me, personally, I might use a supercharger about four or five times a year. There are probably many people like me who have a garage and have a typical daily commute. I rarely travel and mostly it's during holidays.

    Inside a city, a supercharger would get a ton of use from apartment dwellers who don't have public charging options etc. but outside of a city I think it would balance out (with enough superchargers).
    �
  • May 18, 2016
    Topher
    I predict that this would be only an initial problem. Once people get used to an electric car, they will mostly just charge at their preferred place, every day. Just like charging a smart phone; you plug it in every night, whether it needs it or not. 'Range anxiety' becomes 'range obliviousness'.

    This is where the math shows the problems. At the end of 2018 with 500,000 Teslas on the road, a city, say Boston, with 1 Million people will have at least 1,000 Teslas. Assuming three 'seatings' per night, the current single charger with 8 stalls will allow one to to charge once every 42 days. Even with double that number of SC, that still only give 10 miles per day for each car. And 30 of those miles are needed to get to and from the SC.

    All the arguments about making Model ? owners pay or not are really moot in this scenario. There is just no way that the Supercharger network will ever be able to handle the daily needs of people who have no other place to charge. For 40 miles per day drivers, needing to charge at least once every 4 days, 24 charges per supercharger per day, that's at least one Supercharger for every 100 cars, 10 for Boston, 3,000 for the US just in cities. Plus as many more every year.

    Thank you kindly.
    �
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