Aug 17, 2015
GregTexas Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost Double - Bloomberg Business
Tesla the Uber killer!�
Aug 17, 2015
farzyness I'm trying to understand how this plays into Tesla's ultimate goal to drive the adoption of electric cars and sustainable transport. If introducing this service in the near term is a big catalyst to this eventual goal, then I can see the service being released by the time Model 3 comes out. What's super interesting about this is that the ride share platform can be fully integrated in the car. What's even more interesting is that this is being used as a marketing tool. You could very easily increase exponentially the amount of people that will get to take a "test drive" (or test ride in this case).
Curious to hear everyone's opinions.�
Aug 17, 2015
schonelucht I am sorry, but this report is absolutely bogus in my humble opinion. He lists 5 key points a company needs to fulfill the promise of shared mobility. Let's examine them point by point, keeping in mind that the outlook for unlocking them value is 15(!) years.
1) Vehicle design and engineering. I don't believe this is necessary at all to become a large player in shared mobility. Automotive is a competitive market meaning any provider in the market can just buy the cars themselves. Sure, they'll have to pay the markup while Tesla Mobility could buy their own cars at cost. But from a stock price perspective this is irrelevant : any margin saved by using your own cars is also margin not earned by selling to, for example, Uber. In fact, this can become a double disadvantage. If somehow a new competitor in the car making business manages to beat Tesla in terms of bringing out a good car product, an Uber-like competitor is at an advantage since it can more freely decide to source its cars from the new upstart. It's the same reason there are no strong synergies from having a car rental and a car manufacturing business under the same company.
2) Leadership in a connected car. I believe Tesla's leadership is not that decisive, certainly not over a 10 year time frame. Google, Microsoft and Apple are all working on their car solution and we know their (network) engineering experience is top class. It's not unlikely their in house development is already a better connected car solution than Tesla's. But established car manufacturers are adding connectivity as well to their product offering that is barely behind what Tesla is offering.
3) Autonomous cars/Software expertise : judging by actual product that you can buy today as an ordinary customer and drive and not just see in an orchestrated demo video, Tesla is actually playing catch up here. The features it offers are lagging. It may yet leap frog existing manufacturers when (and if) it brings out what TMC is expecting it to bring out 'real-soon-now', but that remains to be seen. And here again established car manufacturers are not sitting on their hands. They too have impressive demo videos of technology they are working on. And that's even without taking into account what (again) Google and Apple are doing in private.
4) Battery/drivetrain experience : no doubt Tesla is the undisputed leader here with a significant advantage.
5) Proprietary infrastructure network : again, Tesla is the undisputed leader here. But at the same time, it's infrastructure is most lacking in the areas where shared mobility is promising the most : the inner city. Even more crucially, building out infrastructure is really a matter of expending capital. Here, Tesla is at a severe disadvantage. Established players have a much larger capital base and can spend the amount necessary to replicate what Tesla has in few quarters of free cash flow at most. Never mind when considering companies with real money spinners like Google, Apple or Microsoft. They can probably recreate the supercharger infrastructure with free cash flow from a few weeks of operation.
So Tesla scores a 1/5 on the analyst's own criteria. But it loses big time in what I consider the most important factor at all : the (social) network effect that comes from being first to market.
Users of a shared mobility app will judge it foremost by availability : how likely is there is a provider in my area. And vice versa, providers will judge any platform by the number of users it has. Both effects reinforce each other to essentially become a 'winner takes it all' market. It is no coincidence that Uber, Lyft and others are spending like crazy to increase their market share. By the time Tesla has cleaned up the backlog of Model X orders (end of 2016), it is likely too late for any shared mobility platform that hasn't yet been established in the market.�
Aug 17, 2015
BoerumHill MS Boosts TSLA Price Target To $465, Days After Underwriting Stock Offering; Sees Tesla Bigger Than Ford And GM | Zero Hedge�
Aug 17, 2015
GregTexas Less than 2 weeks ago Goldman Sachs downgraded Tesla. Who is right?�
Aug 17, 2015
TSLAopt Anyone have a copy of the MS report they could perhaps PM me with?
everyone is prejudging their call without seeing their actual report to justify it. I just read another snippet of the report from the Barron's link but I think reading the entire report would be best. The fact that everyone on TV and even on these bull forums thinks the call for this high price target is bogus makes me think there is still a lot of upside as the details of this report come out and settle with people.
Adam Jonas and is his team are the #1 auto analyst out there. For any of us to claim we're smarter is delusional. For any of us to claim some conspiracy in the timing of this target upgrade or integrity of Adam Jonas' team is also borderline delusional in my opinion, but not as much as thinking we're smarter than them when it comes to the auto industry.�
Aug 17, 2015
DFiveK2
Goldman Sachs ALWAYS WINS.
ALWAYS.�
Aug 17, 2015
uselesslogin They also lie.�
Aug 17, 2015
9837264723849 I share your opinion. But because I hear a lot about Blablacar (a marketplace for city-to-city ridesharing that is a huge success among young people), I wonder if Elon is looking beyond Uber.
What if V7 include a ride-sharing app? Any member of My Tesla could ask for a ride and pay a small fee to Tesla. In exchange, Tesla would transfer some credits to the car owner, which can be used for rides, supercharging, discounts or cash. At first, Tesla could partner with other ridesharing services. By enabling the app by default, this network would grow organically and very quickly. Any Tesla owner would be a potential driver: Ding! Pick Alice on 147th St & 150th Ave on your way, and get 50 credits!
Also, what if Tesla offers some special financing for the Model E, for anyone who wants to become a full-time on-demand driver? There's no gas to pay and the car will certainly have excellent warranty (1 million miles drivetrain?) so it would cost almost nothing to drive a Model E. I guess that's a huuuge advantage compared to Uber. Also, why become a Uber driver with an ordinary car if you can become a Tesla owner and choose to drive for Tesla and Uber?
Sure, Uber's network will be enormous when Tesla will enter the on-demand transportation market. But the cheapest car fleet to operate on a per-mile basis will gain the upper hand very quickly. I bet that Tesla can win this race if it manages to sell millions of cars by 2025.�
Aug 17, 2015
GregTexas App or no app, I will never be an Uber like taxi driver.�
Aug 17, 2015
9837264723849 I'm talking about ridesharing � la Blablacar, not Uber.�
Aug 17, 2015
GregTexas It's the same. You're hauling someone from point a to point b.�
Aug 17, 2015
larmor So understand the speculation, is it that people don't really need to own a car? It just comes when you call it? If it drives itself, then no driver needed... Might be very handy in congested cities and congested suburbs... Not looking forward to kids schools opening...�
Aug 17, 2015
MostlyStock I think Morgan Stanley is doing a classic pump-and-dump. A �Tesla Mobility� that competes directly with Uber and Lyft doesn�t match Tesla Motor�s goal. Providing a service that only covers Tesla vehicles is a poor idea as luxury car owners don�t want to provide taxi services. Tesla Motors is still very low production automotive manufacture. An app where you can�t find someone to give you a ride isn�t helpful. Morgan Stanley�s view of $31B for that business is a joke.
The sensors on the current Model S do not have enough redundancy or lateral range to do autonomous driving on public roads. I don't expect Tesla to have a hardware and software package that can do autonomous driving for 5 years or more. Tesla running a fleet of taxis would mean poor demand to me and would likely hurt residual values.�
Aug 17, 2015
Joel Lying and winning are not mutually exclusive :smile:�
Aug 17, 2015
Curt Renz Mobileye (MBLY +7.0%) shares are performing even better than TSLA today. It's a supplier of camera-based advanced driver assistance systems to Tesla and other OEMs. Just as Morgan Stanley today provided positive comments and an increased price target for TSLA, it did the same for MBLY: Analyst Sees Mobileye Domination . Morgan Stanley analysts seem to have developed a common outlook regarding how robotic car driving will benefit both companies.�
Aug 17, 2015
Lump MBLY has been outperforming TSLA since its IPO on 8-1-14.
1 month, 3 month, 6 month, YTD or 1 year all outperformance.�
Aug 17, 2015
hockeythug I don't know if Mobileye's IPO roadshow video/powerpoint is still available online but it was good and had a pretty solid roadmap in place. Included their personal timelines for the progression of autonomous vehicles.�
Aug 17, 2015
Joel This is better than the IPO Road Show Video:
The Future of Computer Vision and Automated Driving by Prof. Amnon Shashua - YouTube�
Aug 17, 2015
DaveT Just got through reading Adam Jonas' note from this morning. If you're able, try to get your hands on the full note (don't rely on article summaries). I think it's extremely well-written and presents a fairly compelling (yet 100% hypothetical) business model for Tesla to provide shared mobility services. I don't have time to post a megapost on it, but I think it's one of the most important notes on TSLA to date.
Also, another hint while reading the note... I think it's heavily influenced by Uber's recent hyper-growth and recent $50 billion valuation. Uber has got to be one of the fastest growing companies in terms of valuation (ie., above $5 billion valuation) in history, along with Xiaomi. Both are solid, impressive companies with probably a lot more room to grow.
I think it's easy to overlook Uber since they aren't public. But that company is growing like a weed and bringing in revenue like crazy. Don't be surprised if they IPO at a valuation of over $100 billion... or even over $150 billion. This is the context of why Adam Jonas is excited about Tesla's possible entry into the field.�
Aug 17, 2015
jhm Just wait until Musk says something that pokes a hole in Adam Jonas' phantasy Tesla bubble. He'll dash the stock PT down in spite.�
Aug 17, 2015
Quant Well said...I think most people don't yet get that...because Uber is not yet public and its valuation is gonna be huge. However, let's also recognize that currently Uber is an asset light business model ...and its a recurring service business model. These tend to have higher PE or sales multiples.
I do believe that Elon is working on such a business because as a founder of Pay Pal it must really gnaw at him that Uber, pre- po is worth 50-75 PC more, in value or market cap currently, than Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy combined.
i expect Elon will come out with something that is differentiated and compelling to give him and Tesla a long term competitive advantage that will sustain for several years....hence the need to continue work in quiet mode! He can't and will not, I believe, come out and say much until end of 2016 because it would depend on ramping production volumes beyond $150 k annual cars, for starters.�
Aug 17, 2015
Cattledog The crux of this is why one owns TSLA and TSLA LEAPS (and maybe intermediate term options - short term? Godspeed.) We are buying their ability to see the future. Repeat. We are buying their ability to see the future. If you are a TSLA owner for car sales, energy storage, or autonomous driving services, awesome. I am an owner for that too. But I am a stock holder, LEAP holder and intermediate term option holder for all the things I don't know yet. What's next? I hope a lot.
A big question is how deep does this vision of the future run? Does it stop at Elon? Does JB have a sense too? Franz? Another half dozen executives and engineers and designers? The top 100? I really don't know. Happy for discussion on what people see. I am willing to wager a fairly high percentage of what we control on the singular, or shared, viewpoint TSLA has of the next 20 years, some of which they don't even know yet, but I have confidence they will figure out in the intervening period. Having this viewpoint is not a conservative approach to investing. YMMV.�
Aug 17, 2015
vgrinshpun Just to add to your thoughts, Musk is not a conventional CEO. This is how he summarized his views on running Tesla and Space X in the 2011 Bloomberg interview:
�
Aug 18, 2015
voyager Goldman Sachs IMO. There is this quintessential thing about Tesla cars. They are expensive luxury wannahaves that are cherished by their owners for what they represent in a number of ways. Shared mobility is like public transport, only meant to cater to mobility needs on a more individual basis. There is a reason why Google wants its robo-driven, ride-shared 'transportation devices' to look as anonymous and bland as possible. So, if Tesla serious about rolling out shared mobility, it has to come up with new types of cars people don't care about personally. Forget design, customizing, etc. And THAT may actually contradict Tesla's business model.
�
Aug 18, 2015
Spidy I honestly don't understand why people value Uber so high. The only thing they got going for them right now is that they have a lot of drivers.
But if we get self driving cars, what stops any manufacturer from placing a few hundred cars into a city and giving people a $20 signup bonus on the app?
Which brings me back to Tesla. As pointed out on the #3 commet where is Tesla actually leading? Mercedes S-Class is already on the street with active steering assist and BMW DriveNow already goes into this sharing direction.
In addition even if it happens I don't think the timeline is realistic at all. If Tesla actually delivers the Model 3 in the end for 2017 then they want to sell cars and make money, not keep the cars and then slowly make a few hundred dollars every day when they could have tens of thousands right there.�
Aug 18, 2015
Cattledog Can't say I'm all in with you here. I don't know yet if Tesla will even be doing this or not, and if they do will they be a mass market 'auto-mobile' provider or high end? Dunno. But I do expect they will offer a better service and product than others. For some, it will just be about price - they may win there. For others it will be about value - I expect them to win there. Design matters, service matters, integrated lifestyle matters, etc. Tesla will excel in these. People take the ugly bus or crowded train because they have no choice. I think I'd rather hop into a Model X than Google's car. Maybe I'm a wannabe and wannahave a better experience. I'll jump into the Google car when I want to feel like I'm in a Pixar movie.�
Aug 18, 2015
voyager Well, would you let someone else, outside your circle of friends and relatives, use your Model S?�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun According to Adam Jonas note Tesla could provide on demand shared mobility using Tesla owned fleet of cars. It has nothing to do with sharing individually owned cars.
This is *not* a carbon copy of business model used by Uber. You seem to be confusing the two.�
Aug 18, 2015
schonelucht The business model of Hertz then? That's even less exciting. Unfortunately I don't have access to the note but everyone online must be failing to explain it adequately because I remain firmly unconvinced.�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun (Roll eyes). Nothing to do with Hertz either.
Your opinions sometimes seem to be formed *before* you have a chance to examine whatever you are opining on. At this point I do not believe that reading the actual note will change your mind either way - you already made it up!�
Aug 18, 2015
voyager Okay, makes sense. Still, would the Model S qualify as a car to be used in a shared mobility program, set up by some Hertz-type organization?... Perhaps. And isn't this then some sort of enriched rental or lease program?�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun Why do you think Tesla mobility will be using Model S??�
Aug 18, 2015
9837264723849 Most people want to own a nice car, but most people just want to go from A to B quickly and at little cost. For a long time, the only way to move was by purchasing a (nice and expensive) car, but once one can move quickly and economically without owning a car, the beauty / luxury of the transport doesn't matter much. It's not your car anymore, it's just a way to move from A to B. Now, if you want a high-end car for going out, you'll still be able to rent a luxury sedan. I'm not sure many people will pay this much for their daily commute though.�
Aug 18, 2015
Cattledog What people do like is options. Summon a Model S when you want luxury when you want that. Model X when you need room or just want to show your friends the falcon wing doors. Model 3 when looking for a nice ride. Model PT (pick up truck) when you gotta get mulch from Home Depot. Model 4 (coming in the early 2020s) when you want to save $. The new Roadster when you want to go 0-60 in 2.2 seconds. All different prices, all filling different needs - sort of like the whole universe of cars available today. Tesla doesn't have all these models yet, but they will. Other manufacturers have a bunch of models but will be less bold in a new business model because they've become satisfied with the way things work. Tesla's always trying to rethink the way things work. That's what I'm investing in.�
Aug 18, 2015
Adm Just a thought: Could it be MS and GS are just exaggerating the chances and risks of TSLA to increase the volatility and volume of TSLA so they can make more money? Let's face it, it's all a game to these guys and all they do is influence the market so they get the most out of it. There are more forces on both sides of the court pulling and pushing the stock and I am willing to wager the majority cannot be considered objective sources.�
Aug 18, 2015
Krugerrand This might happen, but it would make no sense for Adam Jonas to make up a new Tesla business venture and then do a thorough analysis on it, etc.... He has to have acquired some information from Tesla. He may have interpreted the information wrong, he may have jumped to some conclusions, but he got something from Tesla that led him down this path. I am reminded of that very odd exchange on the ER concerning this topic.�
Aug 18, 2015
schonelucht I find your speculation offensive because you couldn't be further from the truth. I readily admit my analysis is based on articles over the report instead of the report itself because that is all I have, but when I am wrong, I am willing to accept that too. I gave my detailed position in post #3 of this thread and not a single person who has access to the note tried to correct my misconceptions. But somehow it is me who is not willing to discuss the implications of what this market could mean for Tesla.�
Aug 18, 2015
Familial Rhino I think the idea in this speculation is that Tesla has the opportunity to come up with a new business model, which would be different from what both Uber and Hertz are doing:
Uber: Uber does not own the cars, customers do not drive them, the cars' owners drive them. Customers go from A to B on demand. Very low transaction costs. Uber doesn't maintain the cars. Uber pays drivers and keeps a cut.
Hertz: Hertz owns the cars, customers drive them. The cars are rented for more than one trip and transaction costs are higher. Hertz maintains the cars. Hertz keeps the money.
Tesla: Tesla owns the cars, the cars drive themselves. A to B on demand. Very low transaction costs. Tesla maintains the cars. Tesla keeps the money.
They're substantially different.�
Aug 18, 2015
GregTexas Tesla hasn't proven they will ever be able to produce a car that will drive itself. Other companies, including Google have.�
Aug 18, 2015
Familial Rhino Hence the word "speculation".�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun Google LIDAR based system costs *more* than Model S. Due to the cost it is next to useless for an application being discussed in this thread.
The hardware for Tesla autopilot is less than $1000. In fact, Tesla was able to secretly add it to all cars being produced, without increase in price, and no noticeable impact on margins�
Aug 18, 2015
GregTexas That's more proof that people are dreaming. It reminds me of Ronald Reagan scaring the Russians with imaginary star wars.�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun Everything, and I mean absolutely everything that companies run by Elon Musk had *done*, was (and in some corners is) being called a pipe dream, all the way. This line of argument has zero credibility at this point.�
Aug 18, 2015
Familial Rhino The bar is certainly high, but things are progressing more quickly than one would think. For instance, these robots were almost impossible to imagine 10 years ago.
Also, hitting missiles with missiles and satellites with missiles works pretty well today.�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun These robots is certainty a good, but rather exotic example of how ridiculous "dream" assertions are. Going a little more main stream, 10 years ago very few people imagined that 75% of US mobile subscribers will carry a little device costing hundreds of $ and affording them instant access to world wide information, commerce and communications...�
Aug 18, 2015
32no The mobility business really seems to be a good fit for Tesla's strategy. It is the norm for Tesla to front the initial costs and lose money and burn cash in order to ensure a profitable future. Tesla could do the same in the mobility business by setting up stations with solar panels, PowerPacks, and superchargers and filling them with cars. All of these are big up front investments that will pay off as people use the service. The advantage to this model is that the upfront costs, when amortized over the useful lifetime of each component is significantly less than the potential revenue per mile driven. That said, it really is a much more long term project (think beyond 2020), and it would be ridiculous to value Tesla on such a long term item. It is certainly worth considering that Tesla still has plenty of new things they want to expand in to when purchasing Tesla's stock, but basing a whole investment thesis on something that hasn't even been announced yet is a stretch.
And to those who point to extremely innovative competitors in the field like Google, Apple, and Uber, I'd like to point out two things: Tesla is extremely well positioned because they have everything they need for the business already being worked on: autopilot, electric cars, solar panels (Solar City is pretty much a sister company) and batteries, as well as charging infrastructure. Even if competition is there, Tesla could easily undercut them as the synergy of all these things that they do in house will result in low cost per mile.
Second, Tesla is already an innovation company, just like Google, Apple, and others. When thinking about innovation, Tesla comes up subliminally. University of Pennyslvania is building an innovation center called Pennovation, and guess which car is in the bottom right corner of their rendering? Let me give you a hint, its not a Google car, or any other car from Tesla's competitors or potential competitors. What does this tell us? Tesla is synonymous with the future and innovation, so don't get ahead of yourselves when claiming Google and Apple are the most innovative companies who are better positioned for the business.
�
Aug 18, 2015
GregTexas I don't doubt some company will have an affordable fully autonomous automobile sometime in the future but I doubt Tesla will be at the forefront as a Morgan Stanley analyst thinks.
My confidence waned considerably when I saw how the blind spot monitoring was useless, not only because of all the errors (false calls, missed calls and late calls) but also because of the idiotic location where they put the indicator.�
Aug 18, 2015
pGo Here is the comparison between Camera based systems and LIDAR based systems.
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/cameras-lasers.html
It also talks about LIDAR systems from Velodyne (claims to reach at $300/unit soon) and Quanergy(already at $1000 for 8 unit system). If one thinks that prices of LIDARS are going to be standstill, then that's wrong. I agree with this researcher that future systems will be using both cameras and LIDARs.
Who's going to win is anyone's guess.
I don't see Tesla competitive advantage in using their own fleet. I see their advantage when Tesla relies on the cars it sold to be available and summon wherever required. With this system, Tesla users would opt out from listing when they need the car (eg vacation, home to-fro office). Since Tesla will use proprietary software to talk to the autonomous systems, the APIs won't be available for anyone else to use. This is Tesla's win.
However, other manufacturers are NOT behind. They will also have autonomous systems working and functioning around the same time as some are already ahead of Tesla in producing features in this direction. They all understand current Google model won't work and hence joining with MobileEye. What they will offer is may be an open API set that companies like Uber and Lyft will use to network and summon cars to specified location when needed.
I feel that MS note is going a bit far with victory being claimed too early. Time will tell the story.
- - - Updated - - -
How about using cameras instead of side mirrors? I guess Tesla is already planning for that and hence the indicator is within the screen and not on side mirror?�
Aug 18, 2015
GregTexas There are no cameras instead of side mirrors on my Tesla.�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun What victory are you referring to? Adam Jonas assuming Tesla capturing 1% of the on-demand shared mobility market for mid case (PT $465) and 2% for bull case (PT $611). Please stop dismissing his note based on your determination that Tesla will not dominate this market. His report and PTs are well researched and are based on very conservative assumptions, it does not rely on Tesla dominating this field.
Regarding the pricing of Lidar system dropping, I will believe when I see it. The problem with this logic is that in order for prices to drop they need mass production, which is pie in the sky at this point because, as you mentioned yourself, the auto manufacturers are choosing camera/radar based systems because they are much cheaper. So where is the volume required to drop the LIDAR pricing will come from if everybody choosing the cheaper camera/radar systems? This is classic Catch -22...�
Aug 18, 2015
pGo Regarding LIDAR system prices drop, the Google reference you pointed out at $80K is now selling for $8K within a few years without mass production. The companies in this field are all claiming cheaper and sophisticated lasers are coming.. and coming soon.
http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-sensors-autonomous-cars/
New version of Google cars will incorporate this $8K LIDAR system.
Elon also has pointed out that right approach with autonomous driving is a combination of cameras, radars and more sensors. Brad Templeton is a famous researcher in this direction and if you read his blog carefully, he's claiming a merger of two techs is obvious to go forward for full autonomy.
Regarding MS note, valuing about $100 currently for full autonomous shared economy that is about 10+ years ahead is not worthwhile to me. If Jonas is right and Tesla reaches $465 within a year, I will sell my stock.�
Aug 18, 2015
pGo Cars and robots are different, however, the ability to understand the objects around them are similar and to some extent more complicated if a robot is let go with full autonomy in a jungle. Google's Boston Dynamics group recently released this cool video showing their current capability.
Boston Dynamics Atlas Robot Tested Outside - YouTube�
Aug 18, 2015
vgrinshpun The key is, as I mentioned before, that Google LIDAR system costs $80K *now*. According to the link you've posted, Tesla's system costs several hundred dollars. Even if the cost of LIDAR system can drop 10-fold to $8K as you suggest (no link provided), it *will, several years from now* still cost about 20 times more than the camera based system *currently* used by Tesla and all other auto manufacturers.
I am not sure what was your point here, but my point was to demonstrate how baseless claims of Google being ahead of Tesla in self driving are - Tesla is working on real life applications, while Google is having research project - huge difference here.
Regarding your seeming dismissal of the AJ note based on the notion that it is prematurely claiming Tesla's victory in the self-driving space, I am glad that you've dropped this line of reasoning - it is worth repeating that AJ assumptions are very conservative - his midpoint PT is based on just 1% penetration of this market by Tesla, and his PT does not rely on Tesla being the "winner" in this space.
Yes, I think that the only legitimate way to question the AJ note is based on how far ahead it looks in order to assess value of the Tesla Mobility. To my mind there is no right or wrong answer here, it could be looked at both ways.
Here is the problem with your approach, though. If you are not willing to assign any value to this future business, you should sell your position now, because in such case you should *not* be OK with Tesla spending *any* R&D money on this future business. The problem is that they clearly *are" spending R&D money for this - be it for a million miles drivetrain, or for a snakebot. Both of these projects (and others that we do not know about - yet) are wasteful excesses if there is no Tesla Mobility in the cards.�
Aug 18, 2015
Sus Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost...
What if Tesla Mobility didn't own their own fleet of cars? With autonomous driving, they could offer people who own a Tesla a way to make a little extra money on the side and Tesla can take a cut.
For example, if I am a Model 3 owner and I work from 9-5pm, I could make my car available during that time for Tesla Mobility to provide rides. It works out for me since I won't have to be the driver, I just let the car drive around while I'm at work and I get some extra cash. It works out for Tesla because they get profit from selling the actual car to me plus they profit from the rides my car gives while I'm at work.
This would give them a huge edge over Uber (who said they would want to purchase a fleet of self driving cars) since they won't need to eat the cost of owning their own cars. They just need people they sell a Tesla to to sign up their car for Tesla Mobility.�
Aug 19, 2015
GregTexas Only a tiny fraction of a percent of Tesla owners would sign up for a program like this. Nobody wants strangers tearing up their cars. You would have to add smoke sensors like in airplane toilets to the cars and cameras recording everything including people having sex in your car.�
Aug 19, 2015
Auzie That's quite creative marketing idea�
Aug 19, 2015
pGo The link was embedded for your reference: Here you go again: http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-sensors-autonomous-cars/
Precise quote: "The next-gen Google car will have an $8,000 version, Mosquet says, still way too expensive for consumer adoption. You can get a LIDaR for less than $100, but that�s a single-beam unit made for much simpler applications."
Velodyne released system 1 year back that is being incorporated into new Google cars.
Velodyne Breaks LiDAR Sensor Price Barrier with Sub $8k 3D Real-Time | Unmanned Systems Technology
My point wrt Google is that, others are not sitting idle. In fact, when it comes to fully autonomous vehicles, Google is a clear leader. They also know the limitations currently and are working to bring down the cost. If one looks at 10+ years horizon and gives credit to Tesla, one must give credit to current leader. The main technology Google uses has dropped prices and are at 1/10th the cost in a matter of years. Industry expects this trend to continue and there are many startups in this industry trying to lower cost.
Quanergy Says It Will Offer Low Cost Sensors for Autonomous Cars Next Year - Digits - WSJ
Ultimately, I expect current Tesla or Google approach won't be sufficient and will require a merger of both techs (cameras and LIDaR and radars) to bring full autonomy along with mapping the world differently. When it comes to mapping the world for autonomous cars, its a tedious job and Google is well ahead of the rest of the bunch. All in all, assigning Tesla $100+ now based on very little information is too much for me.
Regarding selling my shares, thanks for the offer however wrong your assumption is. Thankfully, I make my own decisions here. I come here to learn and not fight. Good luck with your decisions.
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In 10+ years, Tesla will have a few models around $35K price range (with savings, actually around $27-30K), and may be a Gen 4 with even a lower price. Those users may be more likely to join such programs when returns seen are high.�
Aug 19, 2015
Cattledog Whether you think it's Tesla or someone else, cameras or radar or sonar or lidar, autonomous or autopilot, isn't NVidia a strong play here with its technology?�
Aug 19, 2015
GregTexas I just gave a couple of examples. There are many more. I play tennis in 100 degree weather. I'd call your Tesla to take me home drenching in sweat rather than drip sweat in my Tesla. Change a dirty diaper on a squirming baby in a Uber Tesla, no problem.
The only way I'd join a program like this is as an investor using cars I don't use but it could become a nightmare.�
Aug 19, 2015
pGo I have followed nvidia for a long period of time. They are a leader in graphics processing and bringing awesome arm based chipsets with screaming performance. They have a clear lead in infotainment system and autonomous data processing. However, this business is fiercely competitive. Qualcomm stayed ahead until now with their bundled approach (everything you need in one piece for mobile devices) for so many years. Nvidia should come up with bundled everything chipsets for cars and provide readymade and api driven solution. As the autonomous vehicles market improves from here, they will get more visibility.�
Aug 19, 2015
austinEV You are not making your case well. Install the cameras and now you have yet another lucrative revenue source!�
Aug 19, 2015
tftf Since Tesla bulls seem to the enjoy the price targets from that report so much let's talk about getting there, i.e. investments.
Page 2 says:
"Tesla's pace of capex and R&D spending through 2020 vastly exceeds its current size and production footprint. We have modeled $14bn of combined spending from 2015 through 2020, for only 2 model families (Model S/X and Model 3), 1 assembly factory, and 1 very large battery factory. On a per-unit basis, this level of spending is nearly 10x that of Ford. "
$14 billion in five years. Coming from where exactly when there's an existing line of credit with collaterals pledged (mid-2015) and convertible bonds (early 2014) outstanding?
How will Tesla come up with the $14 billion in projected investments from 2015-2020 in your opinion?
My answer/prediction as I already discussed in the Gigafactory thread: Watch that Tesla share counter rise! There will billions needed and raised using new equity (dilution) imho.�
Aug 19, 2015
DaveT Your post is neglecting the positive cash flow that Tesla will generate starting next year. The positive cash flow is used to fund capital improvements and expansion. If Tesla wasn't as aggressive they could probably fund their future from their positive cash flow starting next year. But since they're being very aggressive their positive cash flow probably won't cover all their investments, thus they're going to raise money occasionally along the way. But to say that they need to raise $14b by diluting stock from now until 2020 is not true.�
Aug 19, 2015
austinEV Is that doomsday? If they issue shares and back that up with money making factories, why do I care? It isn't dilution because the company has grown and has a higher output capacity.�
Aug 19, 2015
tftf Tesla's current CFO already predicted positive operational cash-flows in late 2013 for 2014. Didn't happen except for a single Q1 2014. Then the same was repeated for Q4 2015 , now it's projected for 2016.
I will believe it when I see it.
In any event, the current CFO will have left by then. Will the new CFO use the same projections and models? Not sure.
PS: I'm not saying all the money needed will be raised using equity, but likely large portions of it (and the $14bn projection itself is of course coming from Morgan Stanley).�
Aug 19, 2015
Sus A way around this would be to have a good rating system within the Tesla Mobility app. For example, you can set your car to be available from 9-5pm today and only available to people with a 5 star rating and higher. If a person who wants a ride has 4 stars and below, your car would not show up for them as available.
Riders would be rated by the car owners by seeing the condition of their car afterwards.�
Aug 19, 2015
DaveT Dilution is coming for sure (and has in the past as well) as Tesla will likely raise as much money as they can to grow as fast as they possibly can.
But dilution isn't the issue if the company can continue to grow quickly and justify a growing market cap. (ie., growing market cap will outpace pace of dilution)
The problem with dilution happens when the company can't grow quick enough to justify a growing market cap and the pace of dilution outpaces the growth of market cap.�
Aug 19, 2015
TSLAopt In 2013 the CFO nor Tesla thought they would need to build capacity to sell as many cars as they plan to sell today. They weren't planning on scaling up S and X production or the Gigafactory quite yet. These are enormous growth engines and as a long term TSLA holder I want them to dilute the stock when they need to if it is to grow their revenues much faster. I'll be much happier with a $100 per share dividend in 2030 then a $10 per share dividend in 2025.
TFTF, are you still short?
I'm not related to JP, but I'm shorting TSLA... - Page 8
Or I assume you covered down at the lows of 180 as most shorts seem to conveniently claim in public that they covered at a major dip�
Aug 19, 2015
AmpedRealtor The price was bumped because of rumors that Tesla will have a fleet of self-driving cars available for ride sharing by 2020?
That's the the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. It's 2017 and Tesla can't even get the car to hold a lane or for TACC to work consistently. Pipe dream at best, stock manipulation at worst.�
Aug 19, 2015
Lessmog What! Dang, my watch must have stopped. :cursing:�
Aug 19, 2015
Johann Koeber
You got ahead of us for about 2 years.
Bur I get your point.�
Aug 19, 2015
vgrinshpun I do not get your point. If the contention is that because lane keeping or TACC is not perfect in 2015 the self-driving is not going to happen in 2020, it is just wrong. By this logic the fact that cellular service in early days of cell phones was very limited, the voices garbled and the phone calls dropped was an indication that cellular service was dead on arrival, just a pipe dream...
Come on, we can do better than this.�
Aug 20, 2015
GregTexas
He's saying Tesla won't be the company pulling it off not that other companies won't pull it off.�
Aug 20, 2015
vgrinshpun Ha, I understand what he is saying. It is just that his reasoning is lame...�
Aug 20, 2015
AmpedRealtor You honestly believe, given all of the technical and AI hurdles that autonomous technology needs to overcome, that it will be in consumer's hands in only 5 years? And in such a state of sophistication that you can summon an autonomous vehicle to pick you up and take you to your destination? Anyone who thinks this is going to happen in 5 years is smoking a special brand of crack. Sorry. Not going to happen.
Seems like your wishful thinking may be lamer than my reasoning.�
Aug 20, 2015
GregTexas Thanks to Morgan Stanley I did very well selling my Tesla stock. Today the stock dropped again so I'm the proud owner of Tesla stock again.
I think Tesla will come out with technology that reads the drivers mind.
�
Aug 20, 2015
Nixx I have to agree with AR.
Google has been working on this for at least 5 years. Google will likely be first to market.�
Aug 20, 2015
Cattledog Would you be willing to offer when and whom?�
Aug 20, 2015
Uncle Paul Some feel that Goldman pumped the stock, just as they were issuing the latest stock offering for hundreds of millions in new shares. Standard operating proceedure for Goldman.
Pre offering, post something to lower the stock price. Just prior to the offering tell how they expect an imminent price increase. When the stock price rises, issue the additional stock. They look like heros.
Autonomous driving is just a part of the story to sell more stock, at a higher price.�
Aug 20, 2015
pGo Did you mean Morgan Stanley instead?
When Jonas flip flopped late last year-early this year, I put him into Villans category. What people don't realize is that just as he can pump the stock, he can also go against it at will when his clients need him.�
Aug 21, 2015
vgrinshpun I believe that possibility of Tesla successfully launching mobility services is way higher than 0%, which is what you apparently believe, based on lane keeping and TACC being less than perfect. On top of using this lame reasoning, it looks like you made up your mind about AJ note based on secondary and inaccurate accounts of it.
Here is what the Note actually says:
I also believe that a lot of people are stuck in the endless loop discussing AJ intentions instead of discussing the detailed case he made regarding Tesla Mobility. After all, Elon Musk, instead of dismissing his idea, called his question during the ER insightful.
�
Aug 21, 2015
Larken Excellent analysis Vladimir!�
Aug 21, 2015
AmpedRealtor It's just whistling in the wind.�
Aug 21, 2015
mkjayakumar This pumping and dumping and playing the stock is pretty nauseating and quite shameful.
No wonder all these Wall Street analysts and their companies have very little credibility.�
Aug 31, 2015
Lump Log In - The New York Times
New York Times Op Ed on Adam Jones.�
Aug 31, 2015
uselesslogin Oddly if you took Blodget's recommendation and then went to sleep for 16 years you would have 10 times as much money. But, there are two lessons then one can take. First is that there is no guarantee TSLA will stay high even if it ultimately achieves its long-term goals. Second, it might take a lot longer than you hope to get the high returns we all expect from that achievement.�
Aug 31, 2015
ggr That's Jonas, with an A.�
Aug 31, 2015
voyager Tesla shared mobility programs make sense in a, let's say, preferred customer lease/rental sort of way. But if Elon Musk is serious about widespread zero-emission car use, he might want to examine the BIG VOID between private and public transportation. Particularly... since autonomous drive technology and car sharing hold the promise of closing the gap. That still largely unexplored 'void', you can sense that this is where Google is heading. Interesting article in EV World.�
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