Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters 1/31/2016: Speaking at a special event at Tesla�s base in Chambourcy, France, Tesla CEO Elon Musk hinted at a staggered unveiling for the Model 3 similar to that which we saw for the Model X SUV. �The first pictures of the Model 3 will be end of March� Musk said. �I am being a little coy here, we are not gonna show everything about the Model 3 until a lot closer to production time.�
So basically, we get drawings? Pretty disappointing. Quick, someone spin this as a positive.
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2/2/2016: NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Tesla Motors (TSLA - Get Report) stock is retreating 4.35% to $188.37 in late morning trading on Tuesday after Pacific Crest analysts said demand for the automaker's electric vehicles may be declining.
Channel checks show that orders of the SUV Model X in the U.S. are falling behind expectations, while the Model S sedan "may be approaching its run-rate ceiling," Pacific Crest analysts wrote in a note this morning."
�
Feb 2, 2016
ecarfan What "channel checks" could those analysts be using?�
Feb 2, 2016
trils0n Someone asked Mr. Musk: When will we see pictures of the Model 3? Mr. Musk responded "first pictures of the Model 3 will be end of March". If you take this to mean there will only be drawings available, I think you are adding meaning or assumptions to his statement. He was saying that pictures will become available at the reveal, not before. (Presumable pictures will be available because the prototype will be photographed at the reveal event, just like every other Tesla model unveiling)�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters I hope you are correct trils0n. Because the way I read it, at the end of March they will show pictures -- ONLY -- and not an actual car. Call me crazy, but I assumed the Model 3 "unveil" at the end of March meant we would get to see an actual car. But perhaps some revisionists will educate me and say, "oh no, Tesla always meant it was just going to show some pictures, nothing more." If I am correct, then I am massively disappointed and don't understand how the stock does not crater immediately. Maybe I need to go drink some kool-aid.
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I am interpreting the article below to mean that, at the end of March, Tesla will ONLY show a few pictures of then planned Model 3 -- but NOT a model 3 that they will drive out on stage that people can walk around and see 360 degrees.
BOMBSHELL disappointing, but perhaps not surprising.
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Tesla Petitions to Sell Cars in Michigan, Delays Launch of Model 3
February 1, 2016
By: Jonathon Klein
Though its Model S has been a global hit, Tesla is still struggling with two key issues: Launching its more affordable Model 3 sedan, and convincing state lawmakers to allow it to sell cars direct to consumers nationwide.
The latter has been a thorn in Tesla�s flank since the automaker launched its direct sales to customers. Instead of a traditional franchised dealership model, Tesla sells its cars directly to consumers, thus eliminating the need for dealerships. However, due to the immensely powerful National Automobile Dealers Association, Tesla is facing an adversary that has more clout and money than the electric-car company.
State legislatures throughout the country have even barred Tesla from selling the company�s automobiles inside state lines or getting a car serviced. Customers are then forced to travel outside state lines to purchase and maintain their cars. One state that has been vehemently against Tesla�s sales method is Michigan, which has gone so far as to have the Governor Rick Snyder sign legislation essentially banning Tesla in the state.
Tesla, however, isn't giving up, and recently submitted an application for a dealership license within the state so that it can get some clarity on exactly what the law entails -- possibly paving the way for a legal battle.
According to a Tesla spokesperson, �As recently amended, current Michigan law prohibits Tesla from being able to license its own sales and service operations in the state. Submission of the application is intended to seek the Secretary of State�s confirmation of this prohibition. Once confirmed, Tesla will review any options available to the Company to overturn this anti-consumer law.�
While Tesla has engaged in litigation against states that ban direct sales in the past, the company doesn�t seem to be engaging in it as frequently as it once was. However, being able to sell cars in every state is key to the success of the company's more widely accessible Model 3 sedan.
The Tesla Model S and Model X are relatively expensive, starting at $71,200 and $81,200, respectively. There are only so many households that are able to afford such a luxury vehicle. Tesla�s Model 3 aims to solve that issue with a starting price of just $30,000 after government incentives -- matching the Chevrolet Bolt EV.
Model 3 Delayed?
Tesla had slated the first renderings to be made public of the Model 3 this March, but now according to company CEO Elon Musk, the reveal might not be as revealing as the word would imply. At a Tesla event in France, Musk told Auto Express that, �The first pictures of the Model 3 will be end of March. I�m being a little coy here, we are not gonna show everything about the Model 3 until a lot closer to production time.�
Production of the Tesla Model 3 isn't slated to begin until 2017, which means we might have to wait quite a bit longer until the whole car is revealed.
Tesla�s Nevada-based Gigafactory will allow the company to mass-produce batteries, lowering the cost of the all-important battery packs by 30 percent. For Tesla�s sake, the company needs the Model 3 to be brought to market without issue and without delay, because although Tesla made early strides in the EV marketplace, many other automakers are now catching up with their own products.�
Feb 2, 2016
Chickenlittle i believe he was referring to all features, like the biohazard filtration on the model x but a prototype was shown two years ago�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters Holy smokes it is like I am living in the Twlight Zone. Tesla just told us that instead of the wonderful Model 3 UNVEILING (a car drives out onto a rotating stage, everyone goes "ooh" and "ahhh"), we will get PICTURES -- ONLY.
And all the believers say, "Well that was always the plan, to just show pictures." Or maybe a Matchbox version? Or perhaps a cartoon drawing?
Nobody dares say this is a massive disappointment? A bombshell?
This is actually more of an amazing psychological experiment than particularly surprising about Tesla.�
Feb 2, 2016
vitaliy Maybe someone will ask that question in upcoming "Fourth Quarter 2015 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call" at Feb 10, 2016 2:30 PM PT ?
Events & Presentations | Tesla Motors�
Feb 2, 2016
green1 That's disturbing, they claim production will be in 2017, but imply that we're still a long way away end of q1 2016,
This also hints at showing not all that much at the reveal. I've been saying for a long time that I don't believe the Model 3 will be available before 2019, this isn't doing anything to convince me otherwise, if anything I'm starting to think they're further behind than I thought.�
Feb 2, 2016
deonb vs.
I don't think you can call it a bombshell and then say it's not surprising...�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters Really deonb? That is your response to this massive disappointment? Parse my words? Nobody cares about me. The subject is Tesla and the massive disappointment of no Model 3 unveil. The subject is not me, Audi, evil oil companies, evil dealerships, Mars, SpaceX (yeah it's cool).
Focus, folks. Tell us why this is not a massive disappointment. Tell us a compelling argument why this is actually a positive for Tesla. Maybe because they will "focus on quality" or "keep a secret" or whatever. Someone make a cogent argument, please.�
Feb 2, 2016
green1 Meh, it's already priced in.
Nobody seriously expects Tesla to ever meet any of their stated timelines, it's just a fact that they never do. Anyone who's actually researched Tesla has always made their predictions based on a several year delay after any quoted timeframe.�
Feb 2, 2016
trils0n I think the confusion here is coming from the article vs the actual video of the event. The article makes it sound like he said they will ONLY show pictures.
If you watch the actual source video of the event, a customer directly asks Elon "When will we see pictures of the Model 3?" Elon then directly answers that question, saying first pictures will be in March. This is like a telephone game between the actual event, and media reporting it.
The article says first renderings will be available in march. Elon said nothing of the sort -- someone asked about pictures, Elon said when pictures would be available (presumably because they'd be taken of the prototype at that time). The article took pictures to mean renderings, and no actual prototype reveal.�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters OK trils0n, I will take your word for it. I cannot imagine that ALL Tesla would show is just pictures at end of March (no prototype rolling onto the stage).�
Feb 2, 2016
Red Sage Thank you. Knowing the question helps considerably, when evaluating an answer that was given. +42!�
Feb 2, 2016
Dave Garaffa
Really?
From what I'm reading of YOUR interpretation of the events NOBODY is going to convince you that the sky ISNT falling so I'm not sure why people would even try? I for one will wait until we have a clearer image as to WHAT we can expect to see at the end of March. I would further advise other level headed forum members to do the same. I hope it's okay with you that for the time being I will continue to believe that the skies above are not about to crash down on my head and if its not well that is something you'll need to get used to.�
Feb 2, 2016
gregincal Tesla told us no such thing. They told us there will be no pictures before the reveal at the end of March. If (and that is a huge if) all they show at the reveal is pictures, I'm sure you will hear lots of disappointment, but why express disappointment in what seems like a lazy journalistic mistake.�
Feb 2, 2016
eisbock Yikes.
You guys are reading way too far into a few simple words.
I wonder if Elon and the Tesla crew ever read these forums and have a nice laugh at all the inane nitpicky speculation.�
Feb 2, 2016
1208 Pictures means not photos imho. ie sketches and drawings...
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Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters View the video yourself at the 12:30 mark:
Tesla doesnt plan on showing everything about the Model 3 at the March unveiling, will wait closer to production in 2017 | Electrek
Pretty clear that pictures are just that...pictures. As in pictures only. As in there will be no physical prototype that rolls out onto stage.
That is amazingly disappointing.
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Unfortunately this is probably correct. Probably a little more photo-realistic. But perhaps not.�
Feb 2, 2016
Max* I also suspect that they'll be late, or try to pull the same "we started deliveries in Q4 2017 as promised" shenanigans they did with the X, but I didn't interpret that statement the same way you did: Looking Forward to the Model 3 Debut - Page 49
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FUD much?
You're disappointed by your interpretation of something that you think someone said about an event in the future? Yep, makes sense to me too. Why not wait for the event, and go from there.�
Feb 2, 2016
eAdopter Contrary to the current conversation, there was an accidental "reveal" of the Model 3 about 2-3 years ago. Basically, the Model 3 looks like a small Model S.
The accidental reveal was within a video posted by Tesla. The video was intended to showcase the Tesla factory and accidentally included a shot of the design studio where a Model 3, probably a full-size clay model, was briefly seen.
This makes sense. One reason for Model S popularity is the beautiful design. Another is the low drag coefficient. In addition, building a smaller version of the Model S may help reduce some of the design/build costs.�
Feb 2, 2016
gregincal I have seen it and I interpret it differently than you (or at the very least maintain it's not at all clear). "When will we get pictures of the Model 3", "at the end of March, I'm being a little coy here". The questioner brought up pictures and didn't ask about anything else. I know all that I'm going to get to see are pictures (I still have only ever seen pictures of the Model X).�
Feb 2, 2016
flankspeed8 I would say the bigger question is why is this in doubt in the first place. If we could get Musk to speak confidently, clearly and coherently without trying to parse and nuance words so much these exercises in frustration would not be necessary.�
Feb 2, 2016
Lonnie123 Remember how the Falcon Wings Doors didnt line up... Until they did.
Lets wait until we see, or dont see, a car on stage before we start saying the sky is falling.
My own opinion: I think Tesla is fully aware that showing a picture of the car that will change the company forever would be a bad decision. I dont know much about car manufacturing... But I would bet they could quite easily stamp out a single prototype of the outside of the Model 3 (even if its going to get changed later) and present it on stage.
They dont have to have a new battery tech available, or a new engine type... They can talk about those at the event, but they could just use the old stuff from the S until its ready. If the interior design is going to be similar to the S (minimal, big scresn) that seems easy enough to make a single unit of too.�
Feb 2, 2016
ecarfan I don't know about Elon, but can say that I am having a good chuckle over the hysterical reaction by some to the idea that the 3 reveal will just be a few images and not an actual car...�
Feb 2, 2016
wk057 I have a hysterical laughing reaction to anyone who actually thinks the Model 3 will be released anywhere close to on schedule... lol.�
Feb 2, 2016
deonb I'll let that one go because you're new.
But the main reason this is not a massive disappointment to those of us that have followed Tesla longer... We've been through this before. Many times. When you feel bored one day, research the "5 announcements" Elon made before the launch of the Model S.
There's just so many times you can go on this up-down rollercoaster before you get off.�
Feb 2, 2016
esk8mw FYI for those who might not follow the investor sections. Valuationmatters is a permabear who believes TSLA is worth $25/share. He has purchased a large sum of puts that he believes will be worth millions when the market catches on to his valuation. Helpful perspective when you read his comments hyperventilating about Musk walking up onto a stage with an 8.5x11 sheet of paper with some model 3 pencil drawings on it, followed by opening up of reservations. So the FUD will be extra strong with this one.
BTW, Tesla won't do that. There will be an actual prototype vehicle, not drawings. No, I don't have proof - just logic. Feel free to copy this post and mock me mercilessly if I'm wrong.�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters esk8mw is correct. Love the S, hate the X. Valuation seems insane hence I am short. Trying to be objective though and not succumb to my own biases. But I did listen to EM on the video and it does sound like we will get pictures at end of March and not an actual prototype that drives on stage with people giving "oohs" and "aahs". I could be totally wrong.�
Feb 2, 2016
Big-T The video (12:30 into it) was a bit more ambiguous then the articles make it seem. Will there be a prototype, or not? How much in the way of details will we get? Frankly I'm going to just ignore the hype over this one sentence reply and wait for more concrete info as we get closer to the reveal.�
Feb 2, 2016
MiamiNole What in the world is going on in this thread?�
Feb 2, 2016
SW2Fiddler
I can Fiddle-Splain it for you!
Someone who refuses to test-drive a Model S, is disappointed because they might not get to refuse to test-drive a Model 3.�
Feb 2, 2016
Tezlah Someone is sure to ask about the Model 3 unveiling and any delays during the earnings call next week. Maybe we'll get some clarity then. No need to panic just yet�
Feb 2, 2016
coco81 Tesla in 2012, with much less resources than today and a handfull of cars produced (only 400 roadsters) managed to show a functional prototype of Model X and you say that today, 4 years and 100.000 build cars later they will only unveil some drawings... seriously? Do you really think than Tesla is now less capable than then?
I'm sure will see a Model 3 prototype in less than 60 days.�
Feb 2, 2016
Krugerrand Someone dangling a rubber snake in front of the native's faces trying to rile them up. *yawn*�
Feb 2, 2016
luvnMyTS Why is everyone so surprised? Tesla is ALWAYS late. What have they been on time with yet? Roadster? NO. Model S, NO. Model X, NO. Ludicrous Update for P85D, NO. Upgraded package for original Roadster, NO.
All this news tells me is that they don't have a car to show. So, all they can do is show us part of the car based on photos they manufacture. We're in 2016, no way in hell that they don't have a prototype yet and can deliver a car to production next year!
GM is loving it. They've got 2-3 years to sell the Bolt before having any competition. If you want a $35,000, 200 mile electric car, better to just go lease a Bolt for 2-3 years when it's available. By the time the lease is up, maybe we'll be close to the actual release of the Model 3 in 2019 or 2020. No need to keep driving an ICE car while waiting for Tesla. Just ask all those that chose to wait for an electric SUV!�
Feb 2, 2016
GasKilla Car makers routinely reveal a full size "prototype/concept" car, then many months (or years) later let the buying public know exactly what specs, features, and options the car will have some time before the vehicle is available for purchase. I don't see Tesla changing the game with the model 3 reveal, they will have a full size version on display. Elon will not stand next to pictures of a car and say "here it is give us your money", he knows that's not how it works.
BTW this is exactly what GM did with the Chevy Bolt EV, which they have yet to sell to the public.�
Feb 2, 2016
ratsbew Let's just say this: Even Faraday Future had a physical prototype on stage. If that joke of a company can cobble together a non-driving sculpture, I'm pretty sure Tesla can do the same and make it drivable with a Roadster or Model S platform under it.�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters So funny. Bolt is real and has been reviewed by several independent car magazines. Tezzluh model 3 will be pictures only lol. Not even model X has been reviewed. Bring on the hate. I have insulted the great Tezzluh.�
Feb 2, 2016
Gerasimental Why are you spelling Tesla like that? The correct spelling occurs in the URL of this page and in several locations on it.
Moderators can this ludicrous thread be closed?�
Feb 2, 2016
S'toon If you go over the entirety of their posts, you'll quickly notice a pattern of posts...�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters Yes, please close this thread so that we don't have to hear from people who dare point out interesting news. Like the widely reported news that Tesla will not actually have an unveiling of an actual physical car, but rather some 2-D drawings or photographs or pictures -- based on what EM himself just publicly said in front of about 1000 people.
By all means, lets censor the non-believers or close threads that disagree!
I sometimes spell Tezzluh because that is actually how EM pronounces it. If it hurts others' feelings I will refrain.�
Feb 2, 2016
gregincal Several people have patiently explained why they don't think what you say is true. You keep repeating the same thing over and over again despite that. What is the point?�
Feb 2, 2016
TheTalkingMule I saw this earlier today and registered it as a very big deal. The clear understanding was a non-functioning prototype on a stage and details of all all the functionality. This is drawings?�
Feb 2, 2016
gregincal I really don't understand where people get drawings from. A journalist asked when they could have pictures of the Model 3 and Elon said at the end of March. Who said anything at any time about drawings?�
Feb 2, 2016
vinnie97 Correction: One guy.
I take that back...others appear to be coming out of the woodwork and running around like chicken littles with this drawings theory.
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Troll alert.�
Feb 2, 2016
int32_t
+1. I'm wondering the same thing.�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters Yes I speak my opinion. So let's call me a troll. Love it! Make me the subject, rather than the financial disaster that is Tesla. Add me to the list of those who ought to be silenced. Or part of the evil conspiracy to kill Tesla (whose Model S I like; I just think the stock trades at ridiculous levels).
And BTW if I am wrong and later this month Tesla rolls out a physical car (like GM did with the Bolt), I'll be the first to admit I am wrong. Don't worry I won't argue that Tesla ought to let anyone actually test drive the Model 3 (like GM did with the Bolt; C&D loved it and they are pretty critical but I digress). For that matter I won't remind everyone that Tesla won't even allow an independent magazine to test drive the Model X. I am sure it is because Tesla ... wait for it ... has so much demand for the X that it cannot even spare one for 2 hours. Hilarious. Please, tell me why reviews are unnecessary for the X. And why Tesla will not make public the Facebook page(s) listing all the problems with the X.�
Feb 2, 2016
int32_t
Have you actually seen a Model X in person and driven it?�
Feb 2, 2016
Tasdevil It's going to be life size car. Even a clay model would be a joke. Expect it to have everything but do nothing.
Still... How could Elon not unveil the model 3 by setting up a garage door and calling the car to him from his smart phone. Or something with autonomous driving.�
Feb 2, 2016
TheTalkingMule LOL.....this valuation is justified on battery storage alone. Who is this guy?�
Feb 2, 2016
JST You are assuming that there will be an actual "unveiling." We may just get pics released either by themselves or as part of an interview.
You may not believe me (or may not care what I think), but I always assumed that what we'd see in March would be a rendering or teaser image, not a prototype. There are two reasons for that:
1) the Model 3 is a huge deal. Tesla is going to want to milk the anticipation as much as they can. Remember how long the Model X rollout took? The Model 3 will take at least that long.
Driving a Model 3 prototype onto stage would shoot that whole wad, all at once, months and months before production start. I'd be stunned if they did that.
I expect a string of renders/teaser images over the next 12 months; we might see an actual prototype in mid '17, if there are no delays. Which brings me to...
2) my guess is that the Model 3 simply isn't ready to have a full prototype roll onstage. Maybe a "concept" version? That's what they did with the Model X, but given the "coyness" comment from Musk, I'm betting we won't see even a concept.�
Feb 2, 2016
bonnie -laugh- Tesla doesn't run those facebook pages. Owners do.
If the rest of your *opinion* is as well-researched as your claims about Tesla running the facebook groups, then this may be why no one is actually taking you seriously.�
Feb 2, 2016
shrspeedblade My take was pictures will be revealed when the prototype is, end of march. In other words no pictures before the prototype. Also, not all specs to be revealed at that time either but probably some basics (weren't the initial S and X reveals about the same way?)
Was just doing some youtube searching of what was released for the Model S in 2011, I respectfully disagree that all we're going to see are some pictures. However, I think they won't lay all their cards on the table, as that will keep the hype and speculation up which is good business!
�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters I agree. Tesla as a battery company alone is worth maybe $40 billion. Batteries are going to be really, really big.�
Feb 2, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Not drives on stage != pictures. 2D bad. 3D OK. Drives on stage pointless, but perception better. Drives�
Feb 2, 2016
vinnie97 There's a way to express your opinion to engage actual discussion, and then there's a way to express your opinion that is little more than a call for attention or to indicate an underlying agenda. The intentional and juvenile misspelling of Tesla to look clever blew your cover.
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You Tarzan?�
Feb 2, 2016
LetsGoFast It doesn't make that much sense to me. A "channel check" should mean that they check with a supplier and figure out how production is going based on how many parts they order from their subs. The "channel" for Model X orders is very short indeed and could really only come from Tesla. Presumably they are trying to say that Model X reservations are turning into orders at a lower rate than they expected, but its pretty useless without knowing a lot more.�
Feb 2, 2016
Grendal The talk from Elon that generated the article at InsideEV's is pretty clear. I personally thought it was pretty clear. Tesla will reveal the pre-production Model 3 just like they did with the Model S in 2009 and the Model X in 2012. You will see what it will look like and many of the basic features including range. Elon will possibly give out the specific pack size but even if he doesn't it will be pretty obvious from the range. The touchscreen interface will likely be shown for its size but not the exact way it will fit into the interior. That fits the S and X reveal too.
Reservations will open just after the event concludes with people at the reveal event getting a head start on everyone else.
I've predicted this on many occasions that Tesla will get 50K reservations within 24 hours.
There is another thread about this. The funny thing is that Elon specifically says in the discussion that his words will be over scrutinized and someone will print some crazy exaggeration that will go viral. And what do you know....�
Feb 2, 2016
S3XY LOL. So some people actually think that Tesla wouldn't realize that people would be disappointed if the reveal turned out to be just pictures? That's crazy. I'm certain that they'd sooner delay the reveal to have a prototype available rather than opening a curtain with a giant photo behind it.�
Feb 2, 2016
Model 3 Yes, he does knows his short-trolls�
Feb 2, 2016
valuationmatters I think you're right. Although Musk said, "First pictures will be available end of March" I am assuming he means in addition to the roll-out event where they physically roll out a prototype onto a spinning stage or something like that. I can't imagine it just being 2D photographs. I really do think that would be ridiculous. So, I think you guys are right, and I must have been wrong. Because the alternative would be absurd.�
Feb 2, 2016
mattobadia Yes he was implying the prototype would be able to be photographed in march i believe.�
Feb 2, 2016
Grendal Why would anyone think Tesla was Faraday Future? Those are the guys that pull a bait and switch.�
Feb 3, 2016
Ross1 Tesla treats us all like fawning blithering idiots. Love for TSLA is not returned. How they must laugh at all the forum topics.�
Feb 3, 2016
Gerardf As I already wrote in the investor threads (that valuationmatters very likely has read, as he has posted his negative entries there regularly) :
Elon did not say we will ONLY see pictures.
Question in the video (@ 12.25) was : "When will we see pictures of the Model 3 ?" ... and the answer was "The first pictures of Model 3.. That will be end of March".
Elon then added: "we are not going to show everything of model 3 until we are much closer to production".
Next to that, the Q3-ER stated:
As of September 30, 2015, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype
- Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles; and
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype
They must have been pretty close to these milestones late September. (the 100k aggregate production was actually reached in December).
I do expect we will see at least an Alpha prototype at the unveil.�
Feb 3, 2016
Trev Page Elon's comments in Paris were taking completely out of context. He was working on a couple of hours of sleep so he likely didn't hear the question properly when asked about Model 3.
Tesla has always shown working, driving prototypes when they do reveals. Model 3 will not be anything less than that.
Here's the Model X reveal in February 2012 to refresh yourselves on how they do it:
And the Model S reveal in 2009 which was the very earliest Alpha prototype
�
Feb 3, 2016
Chickenlittle Yes I agree you are in twilight zone. No announcement pictures ONLY. Use of quotes misleading. Can you point to where quotation came from a tesla spokesperson. All believers with identical words which your use of quotes indicate�
Feb 3, 2016
Trev Page *Facepalm*
Elon is just saying the same thing he did about Model X. "We're keeping some things close to our vest". They're going to show a rolling Model 3 prototype, like they always have, but keep a lot of the details to themselves until the final production car reveal.
Tesla has a distinct history of repeating themselves on their reveals, they're a creature of habit. Expect nothing less for Model 3. Can we stop panicking yet???�
Feb 3, 2016
nikolai I came in here to say exactly this. At the very start of the video he says that he literally only had a couple hours of sleep in the past 48 hours. There's a lot of overreacting going on in here.�
Feb 3, 2016
JST You all may be right. We may see a rolling prototype in March. But, in the interest of expectations management, I would start also thinking that we may not.�
Feb 3, 2016
JRP3 That's not correct. The clay model has been thoroughly discussed and it was not a Model 3. No way they started designing that car 3 years ago and no way that's what the Model 3 is going to look like.�
Feb 3, 2016
malcolm The person* who said: "A picture paints a thousand words" was clearly never a member of TMC. :biggrin:
*sigh* I'm a bit disappointed that the March reveal will be more low-key than anticipated. But not, you know, end-of-civilization-as-we-know-it-disappointed.
Coz on the upside it gives us loads more Tesla-time to spend discussing the cool features which might appear in the final car and/or which will make S owners furious and demand upgrades.
That one never gets old.
*Telly Savalas�
Feb 3, 2016
1208 Haven't you figured it out yet
I am so clever it scares people.
Elon is revealing pictures aka drawings cgi or other because the prototype was unveiled... faraday future, but because of the bad reaction they are scraping it and have had to rush back to the drawing board literally and are having to draw the new Model 3, without time to build a clay or prototype.:biggrin:�
Feb 3, 2016
smartypnz I believe it will be a single picture - taken via satellite.
That would be, as a 'Short' would say, "massively disappointing".
BTW, I don't really understand how a 'Short' would be disappointed with bad news about Tesla.
(One of the funnier threads in quite awhile)�
Feb 3, 2016
sandpiper +1
EM must get quite frustrated at how people over analyze his words. I think he's saying that there are some aspects of the vehicle that won't be shown. It's good to keep people guessing!�
Feb 3, 2016
Grendal It will not be low key. I expect it to be as big as the Model X prototype showing. The Model 3 reveal is what will catapult the company into the next level. You do not play that down. Tesla will want and need the number of reservations to take off like a skyrocket. Why? Because it is very possible that Tesla doesn't have enough money to pull off the entire build out for the Model 3 and to finish off the battery gigafactory. Tesla will want and need to show the incredible demand that they are expecting. Nothing says that better than 50,000 reservations on the first day and 200,000 reservations in the first few months.�
Feb 3, 2016
Skotty I wouldn't be surprised if there is only artwork and minor details. Maybe a clay model at best. It wouldn't be a disappointment to me as that is exactly what I was expecting. With Model X just now starting to roll off the line, I would be massively impressed if they have a rolling prototype Model 3. Regardless, I'm sure it will beat the Faraday Future reveal.�
Feb 3, 2016
Vger Indeed! Didn't anyone else catch that Elon admitted to having gotten just 1 hour of sleep in the previous 48 when that video was recorded. Give the guy a break!�
Feb 3, 2016
Mark Z The prototype or beta models that Tesla Motors shows at reveal time have always been different than the final version.
When drawings, photos and/or drivable vehicles appear at reveal, expect improvements and other changes until the Design Studio opens for the Model 3 reservation holders.�
Feb 3, 2016
McHoffa They had a rolling prototype of the Model X WAYYY back in February 2012 at the first reveal. Of course, it looked quite different than what they finally produced.
Tesla Model X Reveal - YouTube�
Feb 3, 2016
bonnie It was more than a rolling prototype. Reservation holders were given test rides at the event.�
Feb 3, 2016
Justicepool The best course of action is to just ignore "valuationmatters" and not feed into the negativity he is attempting to incite.�
Feb 3, 2016
ratsbew I can just imagine Elon on stage with his usual style holding a stack of 3-4 glossy 8x10s and proclaiming that it is the car of the future. Get real! Tesla had a prototype Model S in 2009. They are a much bigger company today. Do you not think that they can build a prototype of the company's most important product to date?
We will see a real vehicle on stage in March. It might only go 10mph and be a "concept", but it will look 95% like the final product.�
Feb 3, 2016
shrspeedblade Keep in mind he did recant a couple of pages back and agree that they will probably be releasing pictures- with revealing a prototype. Simple mistake, but after all isn't jumping to conclusions what the internet is all about?�
Feb 3, 2016
AC238 Eh? I don't see any major difference other than the nosecone and headlight/fog light look.�
Feb 3, 2016
Trev Page History has proven that Tesla pretty much ships production cars that look like their prototypes. A few exterior tweaks and mostly changes to the interior but the overall looks remain intact. Compare that to say the GM Volt concept and the production car and you can be glad the way Tesla does things.�
Feb 3, 2016
JST
History's n in this case = 2. That's a pretty small data set (and, anyway, I would argue that both the S and X looked very different in final form than they looked in prototype form--the S especially). It's certainly possible that Tesla will show a prototype at some sort of reveal event. It's also possible that they will send out an email with teaser pics, as they did at least once during the (very, very long) Model X reveal process.�
Feb 3, 2016
JRP3 I'd say the differences were fairly minor. If you overlay the profile of the prototypes over the production versions I think they would match up at least 95%.�
Feb 3, 2016
int32_t Where are you really from? You sound like a Canuck to me!
(Welcome to the forum, by the way.) :smile:�
Feb 3, 2016
smartypnz Questioner - "Elon, when will we get to see the taillight design for the Model 3?"
Elon - "We will have the taillight at the end of March."
OMG!!!! They're only going to have the taillight at the 'Reveal' !!!!!!�
Feb 3, 2016
Grendal You also go with what works. Tesla has had 3 successes with the S, X, and Tesla Energy presentations. The Model S had about 10K reservations in place before the first car shipped. The Model X had over 30K reservations before the first car shipped. I'll add that the Powerwall and Powerpack presentation had 38,000 reservations in one week. So what Tesla is doing works. Why do things differently? They will have at least one and probably two to three working prototypes. The final production version will not be dramatically different than the prototype they show during the reveal presentation, IMHO.�
Feb 4, 2016
S3XY :biggrin: Exactly.�
Feb 4, 2016
JST That's possible. If the design is as far along as it probably should be, maybe they will follow this logic. I still think if I were Elon I might want to milk it a little more.
And while I don't want to disappoint investors, I also don't want to get people so excited about the Model 3 that they stop buying the Model S.
If it were me, I'd do a teaser in March with enough specs/design details to convince people that things were moving forward, but I'd hold off on the reveal until later in the year--or maybe early '17.
But then again, Elon knows a ******** more about showmanship than I do.�
Feb 4, 2016
Twiglett Who wants to bet that the next cars after the Y will be the Tesla LE followed by the Tesla GS, stranger things have happened knowing Elon's sense of humor�
Feb 4, 2016
neroden If y'all remember, the driveable alpha prototype of Model S, when the first "spy pics" of it caught in the wild on the road were taken, *had no interior*. Loose wiring everywhere.
If that's the stage they're at with Model 3, they might be willing to show photos of the exterior of an actual prototype, but totally unwilling to let anyone get up on stage and look inside.
Even if the interior is in the state which the Model S interior was in at the formal reveal (with completely different seats from the production seats, among other things), they might not want people looking too much at the inside.
If I were to guess based on Tesla's history, I'd guess the exterior is pretty much designed and the prototype is driveable, but they may have a lot of interior decisions left to make. To avoid confusion they might not show off a totally-not-final interior.�
Feb 4, 2016
ImEric Well, congratulations @valuationmatters. That video was available for days before this thread, but now I've seen 3 different news sources questioning whether or not the March event will be a power point presentation. FUD +1, Reasoned patience 0.�
Feb 4, 2016
Jopo43 a picture is better than nothing i just hope you can pre order one after the presentation.�
Feb 4, 2016
stealthology Tesla Model 3 March 'Debut' May Not Be A Car, But...Pictures?
The attitude from GCR and the comments is basically inferring that it won't be a full prototype shown in March and that the car will definitely be ~2 years late.�
Feb 4, 2016
Jopo43 great i just read a story on cnn that they are not making the model 3 plan to skip to the model 7 instead should be out on 7-7-77
they plan to have 7,777,777 ready to sell by then price dropped to $7,777 but you have to buy 7 at a time and can only buy them on the 7th of the month at either 7 am or 7pm
and you have to drive to a 7-11 immediately for the first of your 7 free drinks you also get a free 7 min 77 percent charge hook up�
Feb 4, 2016
stopcrazypp Yep. This is immediately clear to anyone who bothered to actually look at the video rather than just read reports that throw in all their on interpretations. Elon was asked about pictures and he responded about pictures. That does not mean all they will show are pictures at the unveiling. It doesn't make much sense to have a huge unveiling just to show some pictures.�
Feb 4, 2016
Red Sage stealthology: Meh. I strongly suspect that GreenCarReports is only slightly less Anti-Tesla as [SINKING ANCHOR].
Jopo43: 7th HEAVEN! What do you get if you multiply six by nine...? How many roads must a man walk down...?
Why 6by9? - Eliot Eshelman�
Feb 4, 2016
Darryl I am not surprised as I read an article in late December saying that the Model 3 was still in the conceptional stage and a prototype was not in the foreseeable future. Add to it all the issues with the Model X rollout I am sure they have their hands full.
It it appears the problems with the Model X have been corrected and they are starting to deliver production cars. It looks like at least 200 production cars have been delivered in the last week. Very few of those who have ordered a Model X are active on this forum and even fewer put their info in the ModelXTracker database. Therefore it is really hard to know exact numbers. There are still some Signature owners who do not have their cars, some because they delayed in configuring their car and others due to initial production line problems.�
Feb 4, 2016
Red Sage Hmmm... This statement looks disturbingly like... BAIT.
Meh. I'll bite...
Where was this article published? Who was the author? Whom was his source?
If it was in [WHISKEY JULIET] or on [SINKING ANCHOR], it can be ignored.
If it was written by Cory Johnson or Jim Cramer, it can be ignored.
If the source was not identified or amounted to naught more than 'it may seem to some' or 'some people claim', it can be ignored.
Just sayin'.�
Feb 4, 2016
Yggdrasill Showing off a non-final interior is much better than showing no interior. Of course, it should try to be as close as possible to the actual production interior. They shouldn't for instance show an interior with a 17" LCD, and then when they release the car the LCD is gone. Or folding rear seats and then it's gone on the production version. No overpromising would be good.�
Feb 4, 2016
coco81 I don't know why everybody says Model 3 will have no 17" LCD when this could be one of the cheapest parts of the car... please, we are in 2016, LCD touchscreens ARE REALLY CHEAP. I will not be surprised if it cost less than 100$. Take this feature that is almost Tesla DNA out from Model 3 has no sense.�
Feb 4, 2016
Yggdrasill I agree, I just used it as an example. But I'm not so sure the LCD will be 17". The Model 3 should be narrower, so it's entirely possible it will be something like 15" to fit into the interior better. (If they show the car with a 17" and it launches with a 15", I think people will forgive that.)�
Feb 5, 2016
AustinPowers :biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:
Way to go!
I think I am known in the TMC community for not being a Tesla "fanboy", but this thread and its OP or actually, guys like him in general, really make me wanna puke. Asking rhetorical questions or trying to stir up unnecessary panic, just because he has a (badly hidden) agenda, doesn't make for good forum behaviour.
Not looking up the proper source material or ignoring/ridiculing answers that don't support his views doesn't help either. This guy "valuationmatters" is the definition of a spoilsport imho.
Anyway, I don't even care - personally - whether Elon shows just pictures of the Model 3 prototype or an actual full-size prototype on stage at the event at the end of March. As long as he shows it at all, I am very happy. And knowing that neither Model S nor Model X production models looked exactly like the prototypes I don't expect to be what will be shown in March to be the final form either - but at least a very close approximation.�
Feb 5, 2016
Model 3 At one time Elon said that the Model 3 will only get one screen, not two like in the TMS/X. But he did not say witch one will stay and witch will go... And it was a long time ago, so he may have changed his mind since then...
But yes, I have always expected what you say here: The smaller TM3 will get a smaller 15" screen in the console.�
Feb 5, 2016
Yggdrasill The statement wasn't very absolute, it had a "maybe", "possibly" or something similar in it, and I don't think it was Musk who said it, I think it was someone else at Tesla.
I think it will have two screens.�
Feb 5, 2016
Model 3 It was definitely Elon who said that. I can't remember any "maybe" og "possibly" in the statement, but that can be my memory that is failing
But yes, despite what Elon has said, I do also expect it to have 2 screens.�
Feb 5, 2016
Red Sage Ergonomics and Visibility are key. The Model ? will likely be narrower than the Model S, but still wider than its contemporaries: 3-Series, A4, ATS, IS, etc. There is no reason to change the size of the display. Some had estimated/measured the screen in the prototype Model X as 19" or so, but it is the same as a Model S in a Production version.
The expense, if any, isn't the screen, so much as the computing power behind it. And that, even if updated considerably since 2012, will probably be less expensive, especially with higher numbers being ordered from the vendor, nVidia. There are many reasons why Elon Musk continually mentions economies of scale.
PC Mag -- IHS Tears Down Tesla's Model S
As it is, there are people over age fifty (and some over forty) that complain that text on the Model S display can sometimes be too small to see without reading glasses. Others, though rarely, complain that the hot spot for on-screen buttons is at times not as forgiving as they would like, requiring more precise touches to activate things like the garage door opener than they would prefer. Try squishing the same control interface into smaller real estate, and the advantage of a touchscreen over a multitude of buttons is largely lost.�
Feb 5, 2016
JRP3 17" may appear proportionally out of place in the smaller 3, and they may drop it to 15" for product differentiation from the S & X as well.�
Feb 5, 2016
1208 It will be the same size. The screen is what separates tesla from the other car brands.
EDIT: In relation to the controls.�
Feb 5, 2016
Twiglett well, that and the regular over air updates, the beta release program, the excellent charging network, the continuous in model improvement, no dealer network, direct ordering, excellent telematics , the best AP on the market:biggrin:
sorry, couldn't resist a "what have the romans done for us" moment, just without the togas!�
Feb 5, 2016
JRP3 No, it's only one element. Also, are there any other vehicles with even a 15 inch screen or anything close?�
Feb 5, 2016
Red Sage Proportion is of no consequence. I'm 6'-1" tall whether I sit in the driver's seat of a Honda CR-X, Toyota Corolla, Acura TLX, or Lexus LS. And whether it is a Chevrolet Spark, Cruze, Malibu, or Corvette the distance from my right shoulder to the tip of my index finger on my right hand is the same. Any vehicle that doesn't have 8.333~" inches across, and 14.814~" vertical spacing between the top of the dash and the center console area is probably too small for me to drive anyway.
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Feb 5, 2016
eAdopter An actual drawing (from Tesla) for those who just can't wait.
Basically, it's a smaller version of the Model S.
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Feb 5, 2016
aronth5 Lets assume for a minute that this actually is a drawing from Tesla. Why should I believe this is what the Model 3 would like?
There were many drawings with only one drawing that matters and I doubt this is it. To imply this is what the Model 3 will look like is conjecture at best.�
Feb 5, 2016
JST Based on the wheels, I'd guess it's an early concept sketch for the Model X.
I think there's a zero percent chance the Model 3 will have an "old style" fake grille like this.�
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