Oct 10, 2015
Cosmacelf It's interesting going back in time to remember when the Model X prototype was built and shown. It was all before the Model S even shipped. At the time, I can kind of forgive Elon for going a bit crazy with the Model X (falcon wing doors) since he had no idea how much of a hit he had on his hands with the Model S. I think he reasoned he needed the extra pizzaz of the doors to get traction in the SUV space.
However, by the end of 2013, it was abundantly obvious that the Model S was a hit just by being a rather ordinary sedan that had great range, acceleration, and a Supercharger network.
So almost two years ago, you could have dialed back the Model X feature set to be a falcon wing SUV with great range, acceleration, 7 seats, storage, and the Supercharger network.
But no, somehow we ended up with the world's biggest and hardest to fabricate windshield. And sculptural beauty second row seats that don't fold down. And no traditional SUV convenience features like 120V receptacles. And a cooling system that that may or may not be underpowered for towing (Tesla doesn't even know).
Bottom line - the Model X hasn't been a failure by any stretch whatsoever, but I would say they made a few mistakes.�
Oct 11, 2015
AudubonB Thit is not a statement because thit is not a word in the English language.�
Oct 11, 2015
Blastphemy Having bought two cars in California for our parents in Nevada, I can assure you that it's exactly how the sales tax works.
One dealership charged me CA sales tax, so I had to go through a whole bureaucratic spiderweb of paying the NV sales tax and getting the CA sales tax reimbursed.
The second dealership agreed to not charge me sales tax at all, so all I had to do was pay the NV sales tax when the car was registered there. I had to fill out a form at the dealership and then in NV, but I don't remember what they were.�
Oct 11, 2015
FredTMC Bonnie tweeted today that her VIN has been assigned. Nice! Bonnie, please let us know when car has entered production. Hopefully this week!�
Oct 11, 2015
MsElectric Yikes. You do realize the fact that if Tesla did not push the boundaries the company would not exist now right? Tesla has brand recognition on par with Porsche and Mercedes Benz and the reason for that is Musk's vision to push the limits of design and technology.
Yes, it is hard to build the Model X but they have the world's finest engineers working on the problem. Yes, it might take Tesla a while to ramp up production but when they do, you do realize that none of their competitors will have anything remotely as inspiring or sophisticated to sell right?
Bottom line is Musk is not trying to build the next Toyota. He's trying to build a car better than what the rest of the world can build and that requires bold leaps and taking chances. My bet is that Tesla's bold bets will pay off quite handsomely in the long term as they increasingly leave their competitors scratching their heads.
As for the 120V outlets, that will be about the easiest update for Tesla to implement once they get the rest of the production ramped up.
I disagree the Model X has been a failure by any stretch of the imagination. Just about the entire auto industry would love to have a 1 year back log of deposits from customers who want to buy a $100K+ car.�
Oct 11, 2015
wdolson The problem if the Model X is so difficult to build, it will likely have a lot of maintenance problems. There are already some people saying the Model S is unreliable, they don't need a car with an even worse reputation.�
Oct 12, 2015
jasonsc I wouldn't confuse hard to build versus hard to source parts. Everything is hard to build the first time - until they figure it out and create a good workflow, which I believe they can do. Getting parts to put into that workflow process is much harder - especially if they are pushing the edge of what is commercially available, such as the 'large' windshield.
-jason�
Oct 12, 2015
wdolson If he's talking about hard to source parts, that's a supply problem that can be solved. However, I think he was saying the car is technically difficult to build. History shows that any complex machine that is difficult to build also has maintenance issues.
In World War II, the US Navy had two fighters, the F6F Hellcat and the F4U Corsair. The Corsair has the reputation today and it was a little bit better than the Hellcat, but the Navy went with the Hellcat for carrier use and gave the Corsairs to the Marines. Why? The Hellcat was much simpler to build and turned out to be much more reliable in the real world. The Corsair had some novel engineering that made it difficult to build and it had a lot of failures as a result. For carriers where having as many planes as possible ready every day, the Hellcat was the better choice. The Corsair had the reputation with the public and it was much more reliable than the jets coming into service after the war, so it was what stayed on in service through the Korean War, even though the Hellcat was the most successful aircraft at it's job during the war (best aerial victory to loss ratio of any mass produced fighter).
The Model X has a fair bit of new tech in it, the falcon doors being the most dramatic. However the middle row seats do something seats don't normally do, the front doors open on their own and close on their own, it has an advanced air filtration system, and the sensors in the falcon doors are new basic technology. There are a lot of areas where new tech can fail. If they are having difficulty with the physical manufacturing, those are all areas where they can get failures in the field. Especially when real world people start abusing them.
In my years in the engineering world I have concluded there is no such thing as fool proof, only better and better fool resistance. When you think you have thought of all the things a user can do, somebody will think of something you forgot and it will likely break something.�
Oct 12, 2015
gjunky Very true in the Software business as well...�
Oct 12, 2015
wdolson I'm an Electronic Engineer who has spent most of his career writing software and firmware. In short, "Yup!!!"�
Oct 13, 2015
simplejack Deposits <> Sales
Also, if you only make 50 a year it's pretty easy to sell out....�
Oct 13, 2015
JohnSnowNW This is the argument I've used for the Mirai. Doesn't really fit the X though...since clearly they plan on ramping up the Model X...and there are tens of thousands of reservations.�
Oct 13, 2015
supersnoop The state of California requires sales tax to be collected on any car delivered in California. There are dealers who will pick you up at the airport and drive you to the Nevada state line to deliver the car to you if you won't be registering in California.�
Oct 13, 2015
markb1 Did you intend to reply to me? I'm only saying that if you buy a car in California, and you register it in California, you pay your local sales tax, not the dealer's. (Sales taxes varies across the state, because counties and cities tack their own sales tax on top of the state's.
I think I may have glossed over the context of the message I was replying to, though.�
Oct 19, 2015
Matias Is it OK now to say there is a hiatus?�
Oct 19, 2015
Cosmacelf Tomorrow will mark 3 weeks ... counts as a hiatus in my books.�
Oct 19, 2015
MrBoylan You say "hiatus," I say "slow ramp." Like 1% incline.It's all a matter of perspective.
�
Oct 19, 2015
gjunky I think we need a second data point to call it a ramp :smile:�
Oct 19, 2015
Quant hahaha...yes! You da 'math man' correcting the moth man prophecy ?
We really have close to zero info re current X production rate..... I think even Elon will say on the Nov CC that there are too many variables, and I suspect they will only give guidance for the S for this 4 Th quarter.....because even they don't know and will try to do their best. I expect guidance to be lowered to maybe 48 k on the low end, based on just the S.�
Oct 19, 2015
Fiver The stock will take a bit of a beating short term I bet on that. If no X's are off the line by earnings (and it looks like that might be the case) that won't be good for TSLA. Perhaps they are preparing inventories though to release the first Sig batch right before the earnings call to say "Whelp, it took longer then expected but we are delivering customer X's."
Then again, they still haven't delivered all the founders X's yet either so who knows when Sig's will start.�
Oct 20, 2015
Cosmacelf How do you know not all founders have been delivered?�
Oct 20, 2015
7racer I just got a note from my delivery specialist that my car has a VIN and ETA of Nov16!!!!!�
Oct 20, 2015
Cosmacelf What sig number are you?�
Oct 20, 2015
luca are you sure?�
Oct 20, 2015
Joel What VIN were you assigned? Are you a Signature reservation holder or Founder?�
Oct 20, 2015
7racer
Lol yes I'm sure. I can copy the email and block out the Tesla DS name. I'm in Seattle right now for rally school but will post details in a bit.
I posted my reservation number in Bonnie's thread and another thread.�
Oct 20, 2015
luca Could you please do it
Thank you soooooooooooo much�
Oct 20, 2015
FredTMC Yes. Thx!!�
Oct 20, 2015
7racer Here is the email with names cropped out.
�
Oct 20, 2015
luca Thank you�
Oct 20, 2015
DougH sweet.�
Oct 20, 2015
scottf200 From another thread:
�
Oct 20, 2015
Fiver Jason Calacanis was on TWIT this past Sunday (Skip to 56:40 in the video) and said he's getting a founders Model X, and indicated he hasn't taken delivery yet.
I guess production is starting though, so that's good news.�
Oct 20, 2015
FredTMC
I have a feeling we will be hearing from other MX owners about delivery ETAs tomorrow�
Oct 20, 2015
engle Hi 7racer,
I suggest that you remove the RN###### number from the image you posted publicly. It is the Tesla equivalent of your account number, e.g. primary database key, for your vehicle reservation and now order.
Congrats on the estimated completion date for your Sig X!!
Hope to see more of these dates from Bonnie and others tomorrow so we can start figuring out an estimated Sig X ramp.
Russ�
Oct 20, 2015
7racer thanks Russ!�
Oct 21, 2015
AustinPowers Don't know if it has been mentioned before but on the German Tesla page it now says:
Delivery for new orders expected beginning in the second half of 2016 !�
Oct 21, 2015
Gerasimental What, if anything, did it say before?�
Oct 21, 2015
AustinPowers I think it said "beginning 2016", but my point was that I agree with the OP that Model X is not quite ready for mass rollout if the wait-time for new orders is more than eight months. Surely the ramp-up shouldn't take that long. Or if it did, I would be a little concerned what was wrong with Tesla's production logistics.�
Oct 21, 2015
mrdoubleb Remember Tesla has 25000+ orders for X already. May be above 30k as per Paul's tracking, we just don't know cancellation rates for sure.
50k per year is the current Model S production rate 3 years into building it, so, knowing we will only get the 1200 US sigs this year, Tesla saying new X orders will ship H2 2016 means they will build 25k in H1. That's equivalent to the current, mature Model S production rate. I would say that is a pretty ambitious goal.�
Oct 22, 2015
AustinPowers Ok, thanks for the update, I didn't realize there were that many orders already. I thought Tesla would deliver some 5k Model X's this year, and that there were between 20 and 25k orders, depending on cancellation rate.�
Oct 22, 2015
vortexz what is founders edition ?�
Oct 22, 2015
wdolson It's a special edition, mostly for major stock holders. As part of the Model S incentive program they are also giving away three Founder's Edition Model Xs to people who were first to ten referrals in each region. Most Founder's Editions are built first, then the Signature production run, which is still a premium vehicle, and finally the regular production run which is what you get with a Model S today.�
Oct 22, 2015
andrewket Anyone who refers 10 or more people has the option to buy a Founder's edition. The first to 10 in each region got it for free.�
Oct 22, 2015
wdolson Right. Sorry I misremembered the details.�
Oct 22, 2015
Jeva Sadly, I think you're right. It seems supply constraints are the bottleneck and not manufacturing output. My lease on my current vehicle is up in March. I feel like by then, I'll have a pretty good idea of when I should expect to be able to get mine. If things have slipped and it's looking like 4th quarter 2016 or later, I'll just get an S and get an X after a few years. The only thing really compelling for me on the X is the windshield (one of the supply constrained parts) because I'm tall and I have to crane my neck a bit in the S to see traffic lights etc.�
Oct 22, 2015
ohmman My reservation number is right over 8000, and I've personally expected delivery around March (the two year anniversary of my MS delivery). However, as I see the slower ramp, I think it's going to be more like June.�
Oct 22, 2015
tonyinc Nice to see some progress! I would be happily surprised to see Nov deliveries of Sigs. Although the "with a grain of salt" comment from Tesla could mean anything. When dealing with Tesla you could use this formula...[(how much longer could it possibly take if unforeseen circumstances occur) X 3] + [lifespan of a rabbit born at original date].
Congrats and good luck. Really looking forward to feedback from someone who has the vehicle.
Insane that the "launch" happened three weeks ago and we still have to guess what the seats are going to be like and what the cargo dimensions are etc...�
Oct 22, 2015
MitchJi If they can get the required parts, they should be able to quickly ramp to 1,600-1,800 per week, so by around March sounds reasonable to me.�
Oct 22, 2015
Blurry_Eyed Sig X reservation # 761, just assigned VIN #575�
Oct 22, 2015
goneskiian Woohoo! Congrats neighbor! ;-)�
Oct 22, 2015
schonelucht That's the highest I've seen from about 6 or 7 mentions. This would suggest the real highest VIN is a bit over 600.�
Oct 23, 2015
goneskiian In other threads many have reported vin #'s higher than 600. Oddly their sig res #'s are actually lower than 500 though.�
Oct 23, 2015
AnOutsider Could be they delayed configuring�
Oct 23, 2015
FlasherZ 744 -> 581 here.�
Oct 23, 2015
goneskiian This is the first one (I've observed) on the other side (or middle of? ;-) ) flyover country that has reported a smaller vin than res seq #. You may be right.
Or it could be batching. I don't think anyone's spotted a pattern yet.�
Oct 23, 2015
engle How long did Tesla allow Sig's to delay their configuration? Can they still configure at this point? I'm trying to make an educated guess as to how many US Sigs will actually be produced, which will impact when the factory will be able to start producing Production vehicles. (subject of course to how their ramp goes...)�
Oct 23, 2015
FlasherZ I configured within an hour of getting the e-mail.�
Oct 23, 2015
Joel 910 -> 503 :smile:�
Oct 23, 2015
goneskiian Well, there goes AnOutsider's theory.
And mine too! ;-)�
Oct 23, 2015
Blurry_Eyed I configured within the day of getting the email. Also my config is - Blue exterior, white interior, Black headliner, Figured Ash wood, 6 seats, 22 inch wheels, Tow Package and every other option you could pack on. Also forgive the multiple postings of this, but when I look back at my Sig S history, from the time I was assigned a VIN to actual physically delivery of my car was about 1 months.
I've been told to expect a similar ramp up for the Sigs with the Model X. So I'm hopeful I'll take delivery sometime shortly after Thanksgiving.�
Oct 23, 2015
ohmman That should make for a great ThankXgiving. <drum roll> <boos ensue>�
Oct 24, 2015
O-G Sig #292, VIN 131. I was told not to expect it by thanksgiving but before the end of the year. I'm also here in WA. I've been trying to correlate VINs to a delivery area but can't seem to come up with a pattern.�
Oct 24, 2015
aesculus With what little I have been seeing of VINS, locations and what people have been told to expect with regard to delivery, I am not sure the VIN is a good indicator of anything other than you have a secure order for a car.�
Oct 24, 2015
scottf200 Sorta like a mood ring then in terms of useful information. Related to "mood" -- Very happy if you got a low one or a sad panda if not.�
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