Thứ Tư, 4 tháng 1, 2017

[Busted] Model X configuring in July 2015 part 1

  • May 7, 2015
    dyoreo
    At the end of the earning call, Elon said consumer will be able to configure Model X in July.
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  • May 7, 2015
    SabrToothSqrl
    ohh great. Another reason to check and configure my X every 20 seconds... only to realize i'm broke :(
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  • May 7, 2015
    Saghost
    Well, they told us this wouldn't happen until they were ready to build production cars or possibly delivering the first cars, so it sounds like that will happen in July, too. :)
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  • May 7, 2015
    EchoDelta
    To each their own, if Configuration Porn is your thing, you can still enjoy it!
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  • May 7, 2015
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    I'd suggest an initial dribble in September, followed by a greater ramp beginning in October that'll hit a brick wall, pushing full ramp into 2016Q1. (I think their 55k target is way too optimistic. I hope I'm wrong.)
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  • May 7, 2015
    Electric700
    Brilliant! That will be a huge step forward.
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  • May 7, 2015
    timf
    Optimistic or not, they are standing by their projection and better hit it or else the market won't respond well. They also seem to have retreated off their stance that Model S alone will be able to cover the entire 55,000 number and are now counting on Model X to make up the remainder over what will be only a slight increase in second half Model S production. They are going to need at least 5,000 Model X deliveries to do that.
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  • May 7, 2015
    mikevbf
    If memory serves, I believe EM in last night's conference call said that they would attempt to half the time between MX first deliveries and high volume deliveries as compared to the MS roll out. He said the MS volume deliveries took 6 months from initial deliveries, so they would aim to do volume deliveries closer to 3 or 4 months from initial deliveries. With first deliveries in late q3 (sept) that puts volume deliveries in December 2015 to January 2016. But with the Model X, I have learned to tone down any expectations based on EM predictions for sanity sake.
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  • May 7, 2015
    Blastphemy
    http://insideevs.com/tesla-reports-q1-2015-earnings/

    Despite only weeks away from the most recent promise date for the Model X, Tesla disclosed it really isn�t all that close yet by pushing the much-delayed electric SUV�s release to the back end of estimates.

    �In 2015, we have already expanded our product portfolio with exciting new products and features while continuing to execute on our long-term plans. We ramped the manufacturing and availability of All-Wheel Drive Model S 85D, introduced 70D, and are building release candidate prototypes of Model X.�

    So if you have an early reservation deposit on an X, it is started to looking more like a Christmas present for yourself, over a summer splurge.
    More specifically Tesla states this when it comes to Model X deliveries:

    �We are now building and testing release candidate Model X prototypes with increasing design maturity, and are pleased with the progress of this program. These developments, along with our maturing production capabilities, boost our confidence in the launch and production ramp of Model X, which is on track for start of deliveries in late Q3.�

    Previous quarter verbiage for the SUV that was originally scheduled for �late 2013? was that it would simply arrive in Q3. Today, �late Q3? sounds more like a target of September at best � making the vehicle a clean 2 years late.

    From the earnings call after the report:     Elon Musk says that depending on how Model X ramp goes, the volume essentially doubles in Q4. Expects to see significant ramp in fourth quarter for the X, as much as 2x other quarters. Demand no issue � �huge� advance orders for the Model X.

    Musk:     development of the Model X took longer than expected. Notes that he drove latest prototype today, and is �by far the best SUV.� Model X configurator online probably in July.
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  • May 7, 2015
    Fiver
    He also mentioned that configurations would be very similar to the S, and not to expect anything too out of line with what's already available. He did confirm there would be a "P" edition of the X as well. Not sure if this means I should just buckle down and place a S order now, or wait and see if the CPO market floods with D models when the X finally comes out.
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  • May 7, 2015
    O-G
    Working on my vacation schedule for the summer. Do we plan on a reveal in July and the design studio opens the next day? Wouldn't do it on the 4th of July weekend but maybe the weekend after?
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  • May 7, 2015
    tga
    Well, don't vacation where there isn't internet access, and you'll be all set.
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  • May 7, 2015
    MarkoC
    I hope we are going to get a chance to drive a Model X before making a final purchase decision.
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  • May 7, 2015
    bonnie
    Some of us will likely be making final decisions prior to driving. I can live with that.
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  • May 7, 2015
    dadaleus
    You and me both Bonnie. :)
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  • May 7, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Model X configuring in July 2015

    Usually I'd say this is imprudent, but Elon himself said yesterday that he drove a Model X Release Candidate that morning and he thought it was pretty awesome, so I have pretty high confidence that it will deliver 100% and then some.
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  • May 7, 2015
    mkjayakumar
    What do you expect him say? It sucks? -:)
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  • May 7, 2015
    bonnie
    Plenty of people bought a Roadster without knowing if there would still be a Tesla or ever be a Roadster, much less test driving one in advance. Many Model S owners configured and confirmed purchase prior to test drive events. Those of us now taking delivery on an X have the option to test drive a car that uses the same drivetrain.

    Really an easy decision compared to decisions of the past.
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  • May 7, 2015
    AnOutsider
    my thought as well. I think the Model x will be a good vehicle, but experience has taught me to roll put boulders of salt for Elon statements. i'll temper expectations
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  • May 7, 2015
    MarkoC
    Call me old fashioned but before I spend $90,000 on a car I would like to take it for a little spin first.
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  • May 7, 2015
    bonnie
    And I'm sure that you'll be able to do so, considering you're a production reservation. No worries. :)
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  • May 7, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    Model X configuring in July 2015

    I don't think Elon has much of a filter, honestly, which has caused some hand-wringing in the investors forum here (he's said stuff that seemed to unnecessarily give fodder to the media in past years -- seems to say exactly what he thinks).

    Elon said he wanted Model S to be the best car� and it did score 99/100 at Consumer Reports, so I think he has some credibility when he says the Model X is awesome.
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  • May 7, 2015
    O-G
    I'm looking forward to meeting many of you at the reveal, Saturday July 11th. (Just my speculation, no info.)
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  • May 7, 2015
    MikeL
    You are Soooo last millennium. :wink: Good enuf?
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  • May 8, 2015
    felixtb
    You must have missed the MS launch......... You snooze you ....... wait many months at the back of the line! :wink:
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  • May 8, 2015
    spentan
    Looking forward to confirming my x reservation. Hopefully a p100d or similar with 0-60 of 3 seconds is on the cards, the excitement is mounting
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  • May 8, 2015
    primetime
    It looks like we are almost there finally, I noticed Bonnie you are Signature 2, one of the replies was from Sig #4 so will we see Sig 6 reply next? Are all the early odd numbers out? I do wonder about the roll out my guess is I'll get mine in early October so I'll have the crisp non changing autumn leaves of Miami to greet my Tesla as opposed to the August Sun. Either way looking forward to it.

    Sig X #911
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  • May 8, 2015
    Fiver
    Well going off what Elon said in the earnings call, I wouldn't expect a 100 version right off the bat. I'm sure we will see larger batteries (for both S and X) down the line, but I wouldn't expect one during the initial launch. Perhaps in early 2017. They are already backordered with the X through 2016 as is, and that's on the assumption of similar specs to what the S has. If there is no larger battery at launch, there is no need to produce one when you already have your model pre-sold for 18 months of production capacity. Churn through the initial orders then upgrade options.


    /edit I would love to be wrong on this though, I'd like a 90-100D model S.
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  • May 8, 2015
    Electric700
  • May 8, 2015
    bonnie
    I know Sig #1, and they're definitely not out. :)
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  • May 8, 2015
    Duckjybe
    Wouldnt that be awesome for the TMC Connect attendees if it were to happen!
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  • May 17, 2015
    sigurdi
    To bad I am working whe the TMC Connect is happening this year, would be Nice to spend part of the summer there with my family.
    I love to configure my X and be able to test drive it at home, instead of waiting even longer to first test drive then configure then get it.
    Maybe a event in late July at Hathorne so I can partisipate, loved the D event.
    Hope my car get transporten to Norway, together with the first demo X'es. :)
    (I do not have a signature reservation even close to bonnie, but stil belives it will be in the first EU production batch. :)
    Have been test driving all Teslas except the 70D and 40 (did not make it across the Atlantic. ) and love the driving, just not the sitting hight and need space for 5 adults (3 of them need space between them on long trips)
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  • May 18, 2015
    AustinPowers
    With EM, I quite often have to think of The Lego Movie: "everything is awesome..." ;-)
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  • Jun 16, 2015
    hill
    Perfect is the enemy of good enough
    .
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    Gwgan
    Configuration in "Mid July", according to the TM rep who just called tooffer an upgrade to the sig list.
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    Merrill
    So the next question is when we can look at the real thing.
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    Cattledog
    That's the best hard data we've heard in awhile! I like them apples!
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    Wait, you got a call to upgrade to the sig list? That list got full about a year ago. Interesting that they have extra slots now. Did you ask him the following Qs? Why are there extra slots now? What extra things will sig owners get? Special paint? Anything?
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    Cattledog
    There are extra slots because some sig reservation holders bought Ds.
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    Gwgan
    I did ask, but did not get answers, although they were very polite about not answering. Also, I would not call this rep's comment "hard data", probably not the same office, probably the current buzz and nothing more certain than that�but at least it wasn't "August"!
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  • Jun 23, 2015
    BerTX
    Huh? I'm 14 behind you the list. *checks phone for missed calls*

    I wouldn't do it, anyway...
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  • Jun 24, 2015
    CmdrThor
    You won't get a call to upgrade to sig unless you requested to be on the sig waitlist.
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    rogbmw
    I was speaking with Tesla yesterday, and they said we should know more next month. No matter how much I tried, they would not give away any more information, but were very nice about it! They also said that they had not spoken to someone who's reservation number was so low - made me feel good!
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Assuming the configuration page is launched in July: if you say mid-July, at most you'll be off by two weeks, and there's a 50% chance of only being off by 1 week or less. That's not too bad. ;)
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    Saghost
    This analysis makes the assumption that all dates in July are equally likely.

    I would expect a probability curve that is much more heavily weighted towards the end of the month to be more likely for this (or any other company announcement that promises something long awaited during a month with no details.)
    Walter
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    hill
    As we approach configuration - I wonder how many people strived to be at the front of the Model X line simply in hopes of turning around & selling it at a profit.
    .
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    AudubonB
    In that those in the front of the line have been there for well over two years, I would suggest not only is the answer to your question <<<zero>>>, but that even were that not the case, they certainly have paid a huge opportunity cost.
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    bonnie
    Exactly. There are far more (certain) ways to make money.
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  • Jun 25, 2015
    Red Sage
    Perfect is the enemy of, "Meh. That'll do. No one will ever notice anyway..."
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  • Jul 5, 2015
    ChrisC
    From a recent email about the TMC Connect event that starts this Friday:

    Since Tesla is having several people speak at the conference, including a panel of engineers (normally a marketing no-no), do you all think that perhaps means that they will have announced some more Model X details by then? Ordering process and pricing details?
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  • Jul 5, 2015
    Cattledog
    Lovely idea. Likely idea? Hmmm.....
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  • Jul 5, 2015
    1208
    Its July. :smile:
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    Paul Carter
    I think after the conference, fingers crossed for July 13. :)
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    hill
    You'd think they'd have to give all the details on the stuff that you might want to configure like wheel size, pack size, available exterior colors, interior colors, etc. Maybe even (gasp) show off the final /production iteration already - as wacky as that sounds.
    .
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    sigurdi
    The first people that can finalize the car will be Signature reservation holders.
    Easy configuration, as a check list, no pictures only price he he he he.
    3 row Seat Yes/No
    Performance - Yes/No
    Color external - pick one. (5-6 to choose from)
    Color interior - white/black.
    The rest is all inn, even the hitch and large battery pack. ;-)
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    AziwA
    Is that how it was for model S?
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    sigurdi
    Model X configuring in July 2015

    Sorry no hitch on Model S Signature. ;-)
    The choises was less on the signature, more equitment was standard, some colors and other choises was unique.
    You could see the car, interior in the configurator.
    My post was posted for funn, I guess the configurator will be like the Model S today.
    I guess the Signature will have more equitment as standard, easier to start production with less unique configurations and a varity of models, batterypacks, interior, seats...........
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    Sosius
    Price would be nice too. Any predictions for the base model? Anyone?
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    ecarfan
    My WAG is $79,000 for a base Model X 70D with no options (which will have Falcon Wing doors but may not have the fancy 2nd row seats that Elon has foreshadowed repeatedly, but more standard seats). So a bit more than a base 70D.
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    mkjayakumar
    70 kWh? Will it make it between two superchargers comfortably in winter ?

    85 should be minimum - IMHO
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  • Jul 6, 2015
    ohmman
    I got a great visual of a mid- to late-'90s website having radio buttons for each of these things and a Windows-95ish "submit" button. No graphics except for an animated GIF showing "under construction" with a sign and a dude with a jackhammer.
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  • Jul 7, 2015
    EchoDelta
    Add scrolling marquee text
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  • Jul 7, 2015
    physicsfita
    And you gotta have the <blink> tag... :tongue:
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  • Jul 7, 2015
    daveruns
    I'm betting that the configuration is on line in advance of Q2-2015 financial results. There is not a scheduled date for this, but it has been running about 40 days after the end of the quarter, so this means that the end of July is more likely.
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  • Jul 7, 2015
    Fiver
    The last earnings call was early May, so I've been guessing early-mid August. They will either talk about the newly released design studio, or announce it's imminent arrival (or sadly announce a delay) at that time. I still don't think we will see a design studio in July.
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  • Jul 7, 2015
    bonnie
    I suspect you're right. More likely we'll see some Founders' Model X delivered in late Aug / September timeframe & the design studio will open at the same time. Since Founders series go to people who are typically 'already in the know', there is no need for the design studio to be in place so they can configure.

    Does anyone remember the time lag between Model S Founder deliveries and the first Signature Model S? (I guess I could go back and look, but I'll bet someone here knows...). It would likely be a shorter time span for the X, but I suspect we'll still have some lag time.
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  • Jul 7, 2015
    ChrisC
    First 10 deliveries of Model S were on June 22nd, 2012. Then a long period of nothing. Then "regular" (still Signature) units started trickling out in Sept 2012, with week-to-week ramp up in Oct and Nov and Dec ...
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    gjunky
    Didn't Elon say we could configure in July (as the thread title indicated). Curious to know why you think it (the configuration) might be after September?
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    bonnie
    I use a Tesla Time filter :).

    Seriously, Elon is the biggest fan of us all & gets super excited over things he sees happening. I suspect that at times his enthusiasm overrides common sense and dates get offered that leave large groups of employees groaning with a collective 'he said WHAT???'.

    So what I heard was Elon knows how close things are (good news), believes it to be July (ever optimistic), and the reality is it will be slightly later. I'm fine with that. We're narrowing in on the last details.
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    gjunky
    Sadly, that made perfect sense...:wink:
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    bint2k
    I understand exactly WHY Tesla won't be showing the car until release, but how on earth can a company force people to configure their cars (i.e. exterior colors) without seeing the body! Crazy in my mind..... I'm in a rock and a hard place trying to decide if it's worth waiting to see what the "new" X exterior will be like, or configure another SUV that I have a deposit down on :(.... The wait is killing me.
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    Cattledog
    We bought Founder #14 from JB, and it was dated July 28th 2012, so it wasn't part of the first 10. I think there were 27 Founders cars in all. I recall a very late August or September start date for deliveries of Signatures. dsm363 was something like # 100 Sig, and I believe his car showed up late September (dsm, confirmation?) So I think you're spot on Bonnie - Founders go out, short time lag, early Sigs, then faster launch of remainder Sigs and early Productions. Question is, when do the Founders launch and when does Design Studio open? As much as I'd love July, feels like September. I can see Elon getting on the conference call on/around August 10 and saying, "Model X will be launched after Labor Day to Founders, with the online design studio available simultaneously."

    Totally guessing...
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    bonnie
    I'm sure the first customers will be able to configure their cars with all the information they need to do so. Doesn't mean it will be on a website, though.
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    Cattledog
    Wait for the Model X, you'll avoid several years of regret (until you unload that old school SUV). And you'll have more than fun than a car should be allowed to have!
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    Joel
    Yes. Elon specifically said July 2015.

    Here's the transcript from the May 6, 2015 Earnings Call:

    Ben J. Kallo - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker)
    Yes, a quick one. Just on the Model X, when we could see that?

    Jeffrey K. Evanson - Vice President-Investor Relations
    Elon, do you want to talk about Model X? We've had a number of questions from investors and Ben's question here about when you'll be able to configure Model X online, when we'll show that to the public, how that will actually deploy?

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    Yes. Probably three months from now, (1:14:44) May, so it's like � this is early July is when we'll ask people to do the configuration. And it would be very similar to the S, like it's not going to be super � there's no big surprises there. It's very similar to the S. And, yes, and we certainly have a lot of customers who've been waiting a long time. So they will probably (1:15:13).

    Ben J. Kallo - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker)
    Good. We look forward to that.

    Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
    Yes. I think (1:15:19), this is really a great car. I mean it's like � because I have like such a low center of mass, I mean it handles like a sports car even though it's an SUV. The battery pack is in the floor pan. And it's got an incredible acceleration because it's like basically performance version of it like there is for the P85D. The performance is just surreal. It's like nothing else is comparable.

    http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/hdd83nv6
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    bonnie
    "Probably three months from now" ... and nothing saying that there will be an online configurator. Lots of different ways to handle it.
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  • Jul 8, 2015
    FlasherZ
    I configured the second-to-last week in June, my sig reservation sequence # was mid-1100's. I had to fax my preliminary MVPA from a vacation rental the week of July 22.

    Capture.PNG

    So configuring about a week or two after the first Founders' series is delivered?
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  • Jul 9, 2015
    tga
    Yep, he's the consummate engineer; he gets downright giddy when projects come to fruition. Sometimes the excitement overwhelms good sense.

    This. The first handful of Founders' Edition cars are going to people who are well-connected insiders. They have already seen the real thing, and have given Elon their config personally.

    Founder #1 will be delivered with great public fanfare. That's your public release. Minutes later, the Design Studio will open with pictures of the real thing.
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  • Jul 9, 2015
    Joel
    I agree. I'm interested in how many variations (options) Signature owners will have. I'm in the camp it will be three or four options (Color, interior trim, rims, performance / Non-Performance). There won't need to be an online configurator for Signature X other than to see the exterior and interior colors and trim.

    I have faith Tesla will ramp up Model X much quicker than Model S. Model S went into production in June 2012 and delivered 2,650 units over the next 6 months. Model X should not be as slow of a ramp up.
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  • Jul 9, 2015
    AziwA
    How far in advance does tesla usually announce its events? For example how much notice was there for the D announcement?
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  • Jul 9, 2015
    Kevin Harney
    Not far. A few days.
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  • Jul 9, 2015
    Joel
    Elon Tweeted "About time to unveil the D and something else" on October 1st for the October 9th "D" Event.

    Elon Musk on Twitter:
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  • Jul 9, 2015
    ecarfan
    Yes, I expect the announcement about X configuration will be less than a week before it is available.
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  • Jul 12, 2015
    tander
    Don't want to kill the vibe but I think I heard in some conference call that they don't plan to do any big reveals with X, the first people to see them will be those who ordered one. And I wouldn't be surprised if they do a please don't tell anybody sort of thing for the early signature holders when asked to configure.
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  • Jul 12, 2015
    AziwA
    What would be the point? It seems like they would be missing out on a good PR opportunity. Why would they want to keep the release of their third vehicle a secret?
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    ohmman
    This has been discussed in other threads, but I think the most plausible explanation, if true, is that there is fear MX orders would cannibalize sales of the MS, assuming there are features in the MX that are "wow" beyond what's contemporaneously available in the MS. Keeping the MS line at capacity while the MX line is ramping up seems to be a solid motivation.

    Related to this is if they plan to do a minor facelift to the MS to keep the design vernacular consistent - they may want to show them both at the same time.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    AnOutsider
    I'm sure they have their reasons, but it's not a rumor at this point; Elon DID say it. Whether that's how it will play out remains to be seen.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    NigelM
    Worth remembering that Elon said a) "probably" and b) "3 months from now"....that was on May 6th, so 3 months would be early August and not July; he got his calendar calculation wrong whichever way you look at it.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    tander
    Yeah it does seem like they would be missing out on a some free advertising, but maybe there will be time for that once they start producing in volume. I don't know, maybe surprising the long-term reservation holders that are going on 4(?) years now?
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    timf
    He said 3 months, then he thought about it some more and realized it was already May, at which point he clarified his estimate as July. He didn't sound too sure of himself though. Here is the exact transcript:

    Um, yeah, uh, [counts under his breath] probably, probably three months from now, oh no no actually sorry already in May, um� [counts under his breath some more] this is, probably July?, um, is when we�ll ask people to do the configuration.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    rosinchard
    What he actually said was the Model X is "not going to be shown until it is delivered" and people have read a lot into that, imagining the first few hundred deliveries to end customers being done in complete secrecy etc.

    But I don't think that's what he meant, because it doesn't make sense to do it that way. I think he's using 'Delivery' here in the project management sense - i.e. delivery = project complete, product ready to go. So he means its not going to be shown until it is all finalised and ready to go.

    So my bet is there'll be a press release or a little event and then the design studio will come online for orders.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    Fanatic

    The Config will not be open for regular reservations yet..

    From Teslamotors.com forum

    Daniel_L     | JULY 13, 2015
    Bad news for us "normal" reservation holders. Got of the phone with a Tesla Motors representative which told me that the deign studio will open up first for signature reservation holders and then for "normal" reservation holders and the public. Disappointed, was hoping for better news.?
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    timf
    Were people really expecting something different? Of course Signature reservation holders will be configuring first. If it's anything like Model S, Tesla will gradually release small batches of reservation holders to configure. Whether or not the elements of the design studio are publicly available are another matter, but I'm sure even if not that someone will post the contents.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    pvogel
    Unless they are configuring under a non-disclosure agreement click-through...

    Peter+
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    CurrentRide
    Speculative summary:

    Sig reservation holders get access to their design studio this month.
    Founder models delivered in August. Model X "reveal."
    Regular reservation holders get access to the design studio in August. Demo models available to examine in the stores.
    Sig deliveries start beginning of Sept.
    Volume production end of Sept/ early October.

    I wouldn't be surprised if sig reservation holders already have been approached under a NDA. They have been awfully quiet the past week.

    I expect a Model S refresh at the same time as the MX reveal (or soon therafter). This will include a revision of the interior and a styling refresh of the nose, with new autopilot hardware options. This week, the MS design studio did away with the executive rear seats, probably in anticipation of the planned interior changes.

    I have reservation number 1183, and if volume ramps up as fast as I think it will, I should be driving my new MX before Thanksgiving.!
    �
  • Jul 13, 2015
    pvogel
    I expect you are right! By my count if Tesla is to meet their delivery goals for the year they will need to deliver over 5000 MX before the end of the year. With reservation #1651 I'm hopeful I'll have mine before Thanksgiving as well!

    Peter+
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    DJ Frustration
    Sig 139 here and I can refute any speculation of Sig holders being contacted yet to configure their X vehicles. No NDA. Nada. Really wish we get something soon. I've had my deposit for an X for over three years now. I really wish they'd give an update...soon.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    CurrentRide
    You seem frustrated, DJ.:smile: Given that TM has had 40K of your hard earned clams for the last 3 years, they should do a better job with communication. I am not going to ask how much it would be worth in today's dollars with compound interest.

    Hopefully they contact you in the next couple of weeks. I know that we can't trust Elon's timetable, but it has got to be just around the corner for you now.

    Better communication would go a long way to alleviating everyone's anxiety.
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  • Jul 13, 2015
    timf
    Even if Signature reservation holders are under NDA, when you open something so eagerly anticipated to even a small subset of the public the odds are someone who doesn't care about the potential ramifications will leak information. This is why I doubt they would put the Design Studio behind NDA and are limiting current knowledge of Model X to trusted insiders.
    �
  • Jul 13, 2015
    PGeer
    Worse, imagine having invested that $40k in Tesla stock. I reserved my Sig when stock was $31. Can't complain, though. Invested enough to pay for the car :wink:
    �
  • Jul 13, 2015
    tinm
    Sounds like a job for Wikileaks, to help get screenshots of the X design studio out onto the public 'net....
    �
  • Jul 14, 2015
    Mark Z
    I just hope that those who ordered Signature models on the night of the X Reveal Event will be invited to the factory for a celebration. With the factory infrastructure currently in place compared with the first S deliveries in 2012, a 25 to 50 vehicle factory delivery event would seem possible. It certainly would make the 3 1/2 year wait and the $40,000 deposit worth it!
    �
  • Jul 14, 2015
    eepic
    No new information but just stirring the pot here, if we follow past events as a template to get the following assumptions:
    - event on a Thursday
    - one week notice for folks to arrange travel
    - leave a week or two between event and earnings (July 29 or Aug 5, if it's a Wednesday)

    IF there's going to be a party in July, then the most likely candidate would be next Thursday with an invite this week.
    �
  • Jul 14, 2015
    mzpolo
    Mis-direction I say! Bonnie and all other Sig series folks. Oh... We know... We know.... I saw the post back on the 1st of April. They got the cars and they are only driving them in the dark.
    �
  • Jul 14, 2015
    ohmman
    I like the analysis, but I don't think there's going to be a party at any time. If there is, meet you there. I'll be the one that arrives first.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    NigelM
    Thanks. Seems like we agree that statement isn't anything that should be counted upon as a firm promise. Cutting edge tech often takes longer than anyone anticipates.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    ohmman
    Plus, it was Elon. Anyone who thinks his timeframes are accurate hasn't been paying attention. Even in Ashlee Vance's biography of him, employees of Zip2 are quoted as saying something to the effect that if Elon said it'd take an hour, it took a day. If he said it would take a day, it'd be a week. He's an optimist, and I think he lives in his own time.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    timf
    The clock is ticking if they really plan on doing any Signature deliveries in September. If we don't see the Design Studio before the Q2 Earnings Report I think it's almost guaranteed they will announce a slip into Q4.
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  • Jul 15, 2015
    NigelM
    I can see Founders getting cars in Q3 (no need at all for public design studio and configurations there) and maybe a few Sigs at the end of the month. Those early sig folks could just as likely configure about 4 weeks out so theoretically could do that in late August and cars still be available on the West Coast in September.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    FlasherZ
    Perhaps we'll get sig #744 the same day (of the year) that I got Model S.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    sigurdi
    So that Elon told us that Design Studio would be arriving in 3 months (July) is not right, but telling us that Model X would not get revield before the first Custmers get their cars is the ultimate thing?
    Revield is more a event in my ears, and Tesla do not need one in this time frame. (Underselling the X for a while)
    He sometimes get realy exited and says things that is not doable in the timeframe and the World we are living in. :)
    I just do not take this Logic, guess some is not loving the look on the pictures of X'es driving around.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    bonnie
    Iirc, Elon did not use the word 'revealed', but rather said that no one will see the Model X until the first one is delivered. I'm with Nigel on this - and it has nothing to do with what I think about the design of what has been seen on the roads.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    Yuri_G
    He said Tesla would not show the Model X until it was delivered. Not that no one would see one. "Not going to show it" sounds far more like no official reveal event than no one will lay eyes on the X even when its being tested in the wild.
    �
  • Jul 15, 2015
    bonnie
    I guess time will tell :)
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    DJ Frustration
    Just got an email from Tesla Motors with the subject of "Tesla Invites America to Join the Next Billion". My thoughts as I read the email address, subject and body went like this.

    INCOMING EMAIL from Tesla Motors = "Could this be about the X? Please be about the X."
    Subject starts with "Tesla Invites" = "HFS am I about to be asked to configure my X? Is the long national nightmare finally over? After 3 years, 1 month and 5 days is it really time to configure? Do the forums know about this yet?"
    Next word "America" = "America! Awesome. F'in A! Wait, are they inviting all of America to configure? Awesome...keep moving"
    Subject ends with "to Join the Next Billion" = "Awesome-sauce!!! They're inviting us all to drive another billion electric miles in our brand new...wait for it"
    BODY begins "Tesla Motors Brings the Experience of Living With Model S to Cities Across America" = "What in the heck is going on?!?! I'm ready to drive our brand new Model X and this whole thing has been a tease for a Model S driving experience tour? No, no, no, no, no, no. WTH! I know about the Model S. I love it, but what about the X already?!?"
    Skimming the rest of the email = "Yawn. Model S tour. Different cities. Starts tomorrow. Ends on August 31st. Wait, if it ends on August 31st does that mean they'll start delivering the X by Sept 1? Great, more speculation for the forums. There goes another 25 pages."

    Full Press Release from Tesla here
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    Paul Carter
    Yea I also got very exciting to see an email from Tesla this morning. Interesting event in any case. I'm planning on going to Calgary one. http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/50096-Next-Billion-Tour-Calgary-AB-Friday-August-28-2015-Sunday-August-30-2015
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    mspisars
    I am just pissed that the entire south seems to be left out - Miami does not count!
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    O-G
  • Jul 16, 2015
    Paul Carter
    Perhaps wait another day, maybe coming out in batches. If you didn't get one by end of the week I would contact Tesla and make sure you're still subscribed. I unexpectedly had fallen off the list at one point and contacting them was the only way to make sure I got back on (despite trying to sign up again via My Tesla).
    �
  • Jul 16, 2015
    tinm
    I got the email... even though I'm in New Mexico which isn't on their itinerary (NM state troopers would probably arrest any Tesla personnel entering the state).

    I figure:

    a. this new tour is aimed to boost S sales in Q3 before X arrives OR

    b. demo the X around the country OR

    c. both

    Unfortunately I'm going with (a). No X until end of Q3. Hope I'm wrong.
    �
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