Aug 23, 2016
dckiwi As discovered by @Stasla , enabling Autopilot on the Model S configuration page is now $3,000 ($3,500 after delivery).
This appears to have changed after the announcement today.
Interestingly, if I edit my pending order (going to production on 8/27), the Autopilot option is still only $2,500.
I'm going to press my sales advisor for an answer on this. I'm concerned that the waived destination fee and 2 year lease were a way to clear out old AP 1.0 hardware.�
Aug 23, 2016
2virgule5 May very well be to pay for 2.0 Hardware... or a website typo�
Aug 23, 2016
thegruf because Telsa think it will sell at that price and they are trying to maximise revenue?�
Aug 23, 2016
dckiwi Timing is waaay too coincidental.�
Aug 23, 2016
xav- Do all tesla "dealers" waive the destination fees?�
Aug 23, 2016
shokunin I have never heard of any store or even factory waiving the destination fee. Even when I picked mine up at the factory they will charge the same subsidized destination fee.�
Aug 23, 2016
dckiwi It was waived for my order on 8/21.�
Aug 23, 2016
Odebek Was a limited time offer that some OA were using as a lever in last week to push for more Q3 orders/delivery, think I saw on reddit that it is ending today.�
Aug 23, 2016
calisnow �
Aug 23, 2016
Canuck I'm guessing the increased cost is related to the additional cameras/sensors, etc. required for AP2.0 hardware. But that's just my guess. It will be interesting to hear what your sales adviser says - please let us know - but if is related to new hardware I doubt they will tell you that since it would lead to a lot of cancelled orders. Furthermore, I doubt the sales people are even told. They're usually the last to know these types of things which makes sense since information like that to the numerous sales staff would lead to leaks.�
Aug 23, 2016
dckiwi Here's the rub - if they can't explain the price change I'll just cancel my order and cool my jets for a while until things clear up.
I feel for Tesla and the sales advisors in this situation. But I'm about to drop 80k on a car and I'm not going to miss out on major changes by a week or two.�
Aug 23, 2016
golfingBuddha i sure hope that means it is $500 to upgrade my 3-4 week old S90 to the new autopilot hardware because my autopilot sucks.�
Aug 23, 2016
xav- Can't you push the delivery in the future? I think this is how others have worked around this problem.
Or I assume.. Is the delivery fee only waived if you take immediate delivery?�
Aug 23, 2016
Haxster Perhaps the extra $500 will go into a legal defense fund to help pay for/preempt future autopilot related lawsuits.�
Aug 23, 2016
zambono It's what I though all along, increased cost due to liability claims. But more than likely just increasing cost since people see the value.�
Aug 23, 2016
fallen888 Crap.. what are the chances the price will drop again in the near future?
I didn't order AP with my MS, but was planning to add it later (perhaps after receiving my state rebate check). But now $3,500 becomes a harder pill to swallow.
�
Aug 23, 2016
TexasEV Why? Because Tesla needs all the cash it can get, and people will pay it. Someone figured that autopilot for only $2500 was leaving money on the table.�
Aug 23, 2016
Mike K Don't read too much into it guys. Air suspension used to be $1500. The Sound Studio... errrr... Ultra High Fidelity Sound system used to be $850 before jumping to $2500. Options have gone up in price as the car has become more popular. At $3000 Autopilot is still underpriced.�
Aug 23, 2016
trils0n BMW charges something like 1700 for the auto emergency braking/lane departure warning/blind spot monitor stuff that comes standard on a Tesla. MB charges 3-11k for different packages that contain their driver assistance features. Always seemed to me that 2500 for the best tech of the bunch was cheap compared to the competition. Someone probably figured they could make an extra 500 per car by raising the price because it's still on the low side vs their competitors.�
Aug 23, 2016
Canuck Maybe, but then again, maybe not. We know new AP hardware is coming, so the only question is "when". This is as good a "when" as any.
Given the concerns they are causing to people with orders in the pipeline, like the OP, who are thinking of cancelling or face the possibility of getting legacy hardware, it seems like a pretty poorly thought out price increase for a measly $500 per car. Clearly, they could have found another place to get those funds without causing the strife that the OP is now going through.�
Aug 23, 2016
ecarfan I think that is correct.
To me, Tesla AP has been under priced compared to the pitifully poor competition.�
Aug 23, 2016
ohmman $500 seems like a pretty small bump to cover at least twice the sensor suite. Maybe it's a starter so that when they bump it $1000 after the announcement, it isn't too shocking?�
Aug 23, 2016
Canuck I thought the AP hardware was relatively cheap and the significant cost with AP is software development.�
Aug 23, 2016
S4WRXTTCS Where do you get twice the sensor suite from?
My understanding is the only thing being switched out in the near future is to a tri-camera, and that's it. To me this sounds perfectly in line with a $500 price bump.
Or maybe they want $500 just for the wiring harness since we know that's supposed to already be included on cars made right now.
Tesla Autopilot 2.0: retrofit to next gen sensors likely to be available for some owners�
Aug 23, 2016
ohmman Apparently from thin air. I thought I'd read something about multiple radar sensors being potentially added as well (including rear-facing). Sounds like I was mistaken, so I'll retract my statement before I'm cooked on the heretic fire.�
Aug 23, 2016
Canuck Ha! I predicted AP2.0 hardware being released before the end of 2015. So now I've doubled down with a price increase that may have nothing to do with it. It sure would be nice if Musk would just answer the question but I think I read somewhere that he refused to even answer at the Q&A today when asked about it. Does anyone have more information on that or I did I pull that from thin air?�
Aug 23, 2016
number12 For those that think $500 is to cover hardware what happens to someone in order week now and paid $2500? No dice?
Tesla sales is saying it's just a regular increase. And yes it's still underpriced.
This whole release ESP being only in P is to squeeze some margin to help launch the 3. Bit socialist if you ask me.�
Aug 23, 2016
ohmman What's more capitalist than maximizing your profits as the market bears in order to invest in a future, scaled up venture?�
Aug 23, 2016
ShadowR55 I don't think it's under priced because the car is already super expensive compared to its counterparts. People that don't pay to unlock Autopilot are essentially subsidizing the Autopilot hardware. Selling a car for $50k and then adding $20k in options is the same as selling the car for $65k with $5k in options.�
Aug 24, 2016
EVie'sDad I suspect it may have something to do with the Gen2 AP CPU, Sensors & Camera upgrades coming in the next six months.�
Aug 24, 2016
Canuck There's counterparts who offer long range EV's and corresponding Supercharger network?
If the counterparts are ICE vehicles and gas stations, I don't see them as counterparts, and I don't see Tesla as "super expensive" in comparison. Expensive, yes, super, no.�
Aug 24, 2016
krazineurons No, you had read it right. The electrek article talked about adding more radars on each corners atleast. Not sure for camera on rear.�
Aug 24, 2016
SSD420 I was told that no one can waive the destination fees. Even if you pickup directly where it was built, you pay it. It's just a mandatory cash grab fee.�
Aug 24, 2016
davidc18 Special limited time offer to bump 3Q sales.�
Aug 24, 2016
Panu Upgrade price has not changed at least for me which leads me to believe there is new hardware included in the new price (probably the triple camera).�
Aug 24, 2016
cronosx The HW is in the car, if you pay the price or not, it's not related to new HW, it's that simple..
they changed it to get more money, they declared it. Tesla quietly increases price of Autopilot by 20%, says it�s to better reflect its value�
Aug 24, 2016
Haxster Redistribution of wealth?
Maybe it�s all part of Elon�s redistribution of wealth model. As he has stated numerous times, buyers of current (and past) Tesla�s are helping to fund the development of the lower cost Model 3 et al. In other words, affluent buyers are transferring some of their wealth to benefit the middle class.
As Tesla is finding out, there�s surprisingly little price elasticity of demand (PED) for their options (e.g. �I want it. It�s price increase is less than 1% of the cost of the car. Maybe it's been improved. I�ll order it�).�
Aug 24, 2016
sandpiper It's a bit of... ummm... bovine digestion byproduct. While I think it's great that Tesla is playing their green & social warrior cards, sometimes it gets to be a bit thick. They're bumping the price because they can and because they need to increase margins. And fair enough... they need the revenue for all sorts of reasons.
But trying to make people feel like eco-warriors and champions of our shared global purpose as they drop $200K on a rocket is going a bit too far. Nobody, and I mean nobody is going to look at somebody driving a P100D and say "Wow! What a wonderful and selfless person... giving up their hard earned cash to finance my child's future!".
Don't get me wrong. Better a Tesla than a Ferrari in that respect... but c'mon.�
Aug 24, 2016
ShadowR55 Wether it's electric or ICE a thing that transports you from one place to the next in a similar way is a counterpart. It's not like you are saving outrageous amounts of money going electric. That money is just being spent in other ways, mostly by using up your time at superchargers when your going long distances.
I am around luxury vehicles a lot and the most comparable cars size wise is the Cadillsc CTS $65k, Mercedes E-class $65k and BMW 5 series $60k.�
Aug 24, 2016
docBliny It may also have something to do with more and more 60s being sold with AP being the one feature the majority of people ordering the 60 are most willing to pay for/selecting. That would help Tesla balance some of the margins.
//TB�
Aug 24, 2016
freeewilly Compare with other options, I think $2500 or $3000 for autopilot is still the most valuable option.
$1500 for carbon fiber spoiler, $2300 red brake caliber�
Aug 24, 2016
Bimbels According to the Electrek article, Tesla responded that the price increase is not because of new hardware, but rather "better value." So no confirmation there is any new hardware.�
Aug 24, 2016
ohmman Of course, would they say otherwise and hint at the hardware upgrade? I doubt it.�
Aug 24, 2016
Bimbels Well exactly. I would not be surprised if they were being coy. Just trying to set expectations, should someone order now and not get the unannounced hardware they were hoping for.�
Aug 24, 2016
stopcrazypp It's not going to be tied with hardware regardless. The way Tesla had done things in the past, they will add the new hardware when it is ready and it may have nothing to do with what you paid. It is entirely conceivable that a person who paid $2.5k will end up with new hardware or someone who paid $3k will end up with no new hardware.�
Aug 24, 2016
rscott0 Here's another thought:
What if there are too many people ordering with AP? They may well be using telemetry from non-AP cars to improve AP. After all, what better source of figuring out the correct way of driving than tapping into Tesla owners who are driving without AP? Sure, some are distracted or not paying enough attention, but with enough data you can likely weed those out and figure out what a human would do in all sorts of circumstances.
My guess is the real reason is not this, but supply and demand (from my non-scientific review of used Tesla pricing, AP goes for much more than $3K on used Teslas).�
Aug 24, 2016
Sir Guacamolaf The original question .. Autopilot is 3k now because Tesla believes the market can support the 3k price. Simple as that.
Now why do they believe that? Autopilot in its current form is better than any such feature in any other car, but I also feel that 8.0 is about to make autopilot substantially better, and the increase in price is perhaps justified.�
Aug 24, 2016
TaoJones Perhaps it's also positioning in advance of the next announcement.
For example, it's an easier leap from $3K for AP1.0 to $5K for AP2.0. Just saying, although I doubt we'll see AP2.0 (hardware - more cameras, more sensors) for another year or so.
What we will see is firmware v8.0, and that should be fun.
The wildcard seems to be AP1.5, whatever that might be.
Tangentially, am a big fan of placing an order immediately after a big announcement. Seems to reduce the chance of getting caught by surprise, as it were.�
Aug 24, 2016
zambono Don't forget that by also slowly increasing the price of certain options when it's time to price the options for a model 3 they won't be too low. Many on the model 3 side have come to assume that AP and such will be around 1500 because the vehicle is cheaper , well if AP is $4000 by the time the 3 is released then it might still be $2500�
Aug 24, 2016
Canuck The gas savings is not the issue. Not burning gas, and running on clean renewable energy (mostly hydro in BC) is the issue.
I have three children and I'm concerned about their future. Buying a Tesla to me was not about "a thing that transports me from one place to another," like it is for you. It's about my children's future. But at the same time, I'm not so naive as to think I am changing the world by buying a Tesla, or that Tesla itself will even change the world, since I think it's too late, and we're circling the drain, but I do have my legacy. In fact that's all I've got is my legacy. And when my kids and grandchildren (to come) look back on me when I'm gone, they will be able to say that I had a Leaf and a Tesla long before most people had even one electric vehicle. At least I made an effort, even if it was made in vain. That's why I took issue with your statement about "counterparts" to Tesla and it still applies for me. You may see ICE makers as counterparts to Tesla but I do not at all.
Maybe not but at the same time at least the thought that crosses my mind when I see people driving a Hummer doesn't come to mind.�
Aug 24, 2016
shokunin The Autopilot development team must be getting larger and costing more in R&D and G&A than AP revenue coming in.�
Aug 24, 2016
fallen888 I didn't get AP when placed my order. My DS told me today that I'd get charged the full $3,500 to activate AP even though I haven't actually taken delivery yet.�
Aug 24, 2016
javawolfpack That sucks�
Aug 24, 2016
fallen888 @javawolfpack That's what I'm saying, it's too late for me to get the old price or the $500 pre-delivery discount. Here's exactly what she said:
�
Aug 24, 2016
Canuck Without more hardware, you have to keep your eyes on the road at all times, or you risk an accident like the one involving the fatality. Without a camera/sensor at eye level or higher, no new software would have avoided that accident -- only the driver could have. The only way AP can get "substantially better" is with more hardware, at least in my opinion, and until that time I have very little interest in a system that can drive me under a trailer bed during a momentary lapse of attention. Yes, it is probably saving lives, and yes it is better than nothing. But I had it for a week on a loaner car and I did not find it relaxing at all -- during which I time I did a lot of highway driving. I'm looking to upgrade but won't do it until I know for certain I am getting version 2 hardware. I also know version 2 software is a longer way off, but I don't think the hardware is, and having just missed AP hardware the first time, I can wait as long as it takes for the new hardware -- possibly until the Model 3 since I still really like my non-AP, big frunk, 80amp charging car, and I am looking forward to a fully loaded smaller car in the Model 3 and keeping both cars. I'm certain it will be on the 3 and thus it has to be on the S by that time. It may not be during this price hike and changes, but it's obviously coming.
It also causes me concern if Tesla is selling version 8 as making AP "substantially better". That's a recipe for disaster with its very limited hardware suite, if you ask me (and I know no one did!).�
Aug 24, 2016
stopcrazypp The same exact thought crossed my mind. A lot of people speculated AP would be substantially cheaper (like the $1500 you mentioned). This price increase may be to preempt that kind of thinking. Now they can still offer the AP for $2000-2500 on the Model 3 and it'll still be "cheaper than Model S" but won't be as cheap as people might have expected otherwise.�
Aug 24, 2016
Sir Guacamolaf I think "have to keep your eyes on the road" requirement will be here for a while.
However, Elon did tweet that they've been able to significantly increase the resolution of the objects detected by varying the wavelength of the radar. So that sort of tells me that they have been able to extract much more mileage out of existing hardware than previously intended or is in cars currently.
Secondly, reading the tea-leaves, it looked like ModelX housing was made for multiple camera sensors. However, Elon then tweeted the above, followed by breaking their partnership with mobileeye, followed by not introducing such hardware in Model S, followed by making it clear that the $500 increase is to reflect value, not more hardware, ... followed by ... Elon clearly saying 8.0 has significant improvements in AP applicable to all cars. Plus, additional hardware costs $$, software can be applied to the entire existing fleet. All these can't be a co-incidence, the timing is way too uncanny
Of course, I am predicting (no insider info), but signs seems to be fairly strong that 8.0 will bring significant improvements to all existing cars with AP hardware. And AP2.0 hardware, will eventually happen, but not this year.
If I had to put my finger in the air, I think Model 3 will roll out with exactly the same AP capabilities Model S has now. And once Model 3 is "ironed out", Tesla will then focus on redesigning Model S significantly. This means redoing the chassis to accommodate new cell dimensions, a modernized body (not just a flat nose), and place for APvNext housing, and they will then roll out AP truly next generation after Model 3 has been on the road for a couple of years. In the meanwhile, they will add minor "premium improvements" to Model S, but they do also need to justify why Model S costs more - because it has newer cooler stuff! .. but that's 2-3 years out.�
Aug 24, 2016
Canuck Of course that will be the requirement, including having your hands on the steering wheel at all times, as we know everyone does. This isn't about the requirement, it's about confidence in the system and hardware. As I said before, if I get in an accident and die due to my own fault I can live with that (even though I am dead). If my AP kills me during a momentary lapse of attention, I can't live with that.
Not a chance hardware wise. I don't know what you mean by "capabilities" though since the formal requirements will likely read the same for a very, very long time (until autonomous driving is here). But again, that's not my reason for wanting (or requiring) new hardware.
Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production�
Aug 24, 2016
zambono I think others have gotten the reduced price before delivery talk to their supervisor if necessary�
Aug 24, 2016
fallen888 Will try, thanks.�
Aug 24, 2016
number12 My order clock ran out 57 mins ago and clearly I'm in the 2500 ap. But I would love to pay $500 more if it meant 2.0 hardware. Can not get a straight answer... Could it be I missed it by "catching" the lower price? Or would I just get lucky and today on gets it.
800 number said normal increase, but one can hope. They also told me if it was hardware I would be out of luck�
Aug 24, 2016
RamgeRover Perhaps the extra $500 is to cover the cost of switching from Gouged-out-eye (sorry, Mobileye) to its replacement.�
Aug 24, 2016
Canuck I don't get it. How can they tell you it's a normal increase but at the same time say if it was hardware you are out of luck? If it's a normal increase it's not hardware. They can't have it both ways.�
Aug 24, 2016
Model S M.D. My order clock just ran out too. I was told the extra $500 isn't hardware related, just an increase for new orders due to the upcoming 8.0 release. Since we were in limbo, we could get the old pricing and save $500. For me, I wanted the new premium seats too, so I opted for the new pricing to get them.�
Aug 24, 2016
MP3Mike Really? Supply on AP is unlimited, it is just a software switch that Tesla flips, they can't run out of it. As far as needing the data from people driving without AP enabled, yeah they are collecting that even if you haven't paid for AP. I don't think it matters if you are driving with AP on or not, the data they are collecting is what AP would have done compared against what you do. (AP is driving virtually 100% of the time and that is compared with how the driver is driving without AP, or what corrections the driver makes when using AP.)�
Aug 25, 2016
SteveW25561 I think it's also interesting that Tesla is showing that it's definitely not backing down on the value of Autopilot despite the recent spate of bad news.
Imagine if they cut the price: I can see headlines reading "Tesla slashes Autopilot pricing in the wake of Autopilot crashes and mounting pressures from the competition."
In the end I'll wager (and it appears Tesla is also wagering) the $500 increase against the total price of the car is not such a deterrent in this market segment.�
Aug 25, 2016
davidc18 The did because they can. Future owners are lucky it was not a bigger increase.�
Aug 25, 2016
rscott0 If you take a look at the used Model S market, there seems to be a big price difference between those with AP and those without. Occasionally there are cars that *appear* to have the AP hardware (which would just be a $3K, oops, $3.5K upgrade to flip the switch). But you're running a pretty big risk there if AP is a "must have" (you can't return a used car because you cannot get an upgrade you want).
Right now, for CPOs, you're looking at $7,000 extra for AP (lowest priced Model S with versus without). If you want a CPO Model S, it's not hard to find one for under $45K (over 100 have been sold for under $50K per ev-cpo.com). Compare that with only 2 with AP that have gone under $60K (the cheapest was $56,500) since ev-cpo has been tracking them. So you're talking somewhere in the order of $10K extra to get AP. Yes, part of that is because cars with AP are newer, but factoring in age I still see a very hefty premium for AP.�
Aug 25, 2016
AZ Desert Driver In my case, I had a configuration all set and had decided to execute the BUY when the 100d announcement hit. My AP price on the saved configuration jumped $500. I am wondering if I argue that I should be allowed to keep the first price, that would mean I keep the first hardware. Am I getting anything for the extra $500? If it does qualify me for better long term AP functions, I'm good. If it is simple a price gouge- ouch...but this is a feature I'll buy to make the whole package worth keeping for years. [I executed the buy-Oct delivery quoted, still in 7 day confirm window]�
Aug 25, 2016
bob_p We could see another price increase for AP 2.0. In addition to new sensors being added, Tesla will also likely add more processing power. I believe the current AP uses the same onboard processor as the non-AP cars, which won't be enough in the long run.�
Aug 25, 2016
AvengerBB No way what you pay for autopilot is linked to what hardware you get. Think about it logically - people that placed an order last week for delivery later this year or even early next year paid $2,500, and people placing an order today for delivery ASAP are paying $3,000. Tesla will begin putting in new hardware for Autopilot in all cars when they are ready and without notice, and irregardless of what you paid. Autopilot is one of the most amazing values as an option and they saw it fit to increase the price some.�
Aug 25, 2016
AZ Desert Driver You may be right. I don't like your position. It does not make me happy. But I find no fault in your logic. I want all the future hardware NOW at the lowest price possible and to have it forever upgradeable. And because it is MY want, it must be correct!! Then comes that damn reality thing. I want to argue against your position....but...�
Aug 25, 2016
ohmman While I get what you're saying, there is a supply constraint in the equation, which is the number of Tesla vehicles built. Tesla can't turn the switch on for anyone. So there is a supply and demand equation - it's not a divide by zero (or infinity, as it were) error.�
Aug 25, 2016
fallen888 Got it all squared away! My DS misunderstood what I was asking for. I'll be getting AP activated for $3,000 when I take delivery.�
Aug 25, 2016
Sir Guacamolaf It's actually not so bad. If you had paid 2500, it would be 2500 plus sales tax. Now it's a 3000 credit card swipe. So in reality it's slightly cheaper than 500.�
Aug 25, 2016
jvonbokel I'm assuming AP2.0 (hardware) will be available by the time Model 3 launches, which makes me think it should be available on the S/X sometime before that. That would imply less than a year away, so I'm thinking late 2016 or early 2017.
I'm not sure what you mean by AP1.5 though... Maybe 1.0 hardware with more advanced software (coarse point clouds based on time-differentiated radar)?�
Aug 25, 2016
Lump Tesla's Autopilot just got a lot more expensive without getting any better
This is specious reasoning at best. Likely, it's just another way to pull in a few more bucks leading up to the launch of Model 3 production next year. Really, though, with prices of the new Model S P100D starting at $134,500, it's probable that buyers won't know about or flinch at the additional Autopilot cost.�
Aug 25, 2016
Canuck The second sentence of this article reads:
"When Tesla originally released Autopilot last October, it was apart of a $2,500 package."
This a "journalist" who doesn't even know what the word "apart" means. It's amazing how today anyone can write an article and call themselves a journalist. Then he goes for the big word "specious" and it made my eyes roll. And that's just the language issue. His point that:
This makes no sense at all. The additional AP cost applies to a base model 60 as well -- but I guess he didn't take the time to do a little bit of research. Even so, his point is? Oh, I get it, we bought a Tesla so $500 means nothing to us, right "journalist" Nick Jaynes? We probably don't even know about it. That's a really nice point you made there. Completely false, but nice anyway.
Seriously, Nick, it's time to think of another occupation.�
Aug 25, 2016
TaoJones AP1.5 could be a replacement camera, hopefully retrofittable. With the Mobileye exit, all bets are off, though.
Software separate - the software we pretty much expect in the next month or two.
In the end, it looks like software this year and hardware next year. Would be surprised if there's more than a 3 month gap between when the S/X get AP2.0 and the Model 3 starts shipping to employees.
So mid to late 2017 for AP2.0 is my $0.02. Again, now that the effort is more in-house, who knows...�
Aug 25, 2016
Canuck My 2 cents (or a nickle since we did away with pennies up here): No chance on the retrofit part. I don't know where you're located but have you tried to get a service appt lately? There's just no way service centers could handle retrofits when they can barely keep up with maintenance and repair appointments.�
Aug 25, 2016
EternalChampion When I bought my P85D, there were two things that made me pull the trigger as I already had a Model X on order and didn't need another vehicle. It was the autopilot and the addition of all wheel drive. Emphasis on the autopilot as my travel tendencies are very compatible with the overall intention of autopilot to reduce driver fatigue on long interstate trips.
Now, between my Model S and my Model X, I'll venture that I have 10k miles in autopilot, probably more, and can tell you it is absolutely worth the money and then some. I routinely put 300 miles on my car virtually every weekend, and 90% of those miles aren't driven by me. Three grand for a personal chauffeur is amazing.�
Aug 25, 2016
theslimshadyist If TSLA charged $5K for AP I don't think even that would make a difference, people would still buy. I know that I would.�
Aug 25, 2016
ericscottf I'm fairly obsessed with whether or not my upcoming MS (Late sept/Oct delivery) will have the guts for AP2.0 or not... Happy I pulled the trigger before the $500 increase, but potentially upset that I'll miss out on 2nd gen AP by a small amount of time and have no retrofit options.
Thinking about it more, the issue I keep coming back to is that if new AP hardware were shipping now or soon, they'd have to have the software installed at ship, or recipients of it wouldn't have ANY AP at all on delivery.
All of the articles on AP 2.0 suggest a new processor, new/more cameras, more sensors, RADAR, etc. There's almost no way that the new equipment would work with the existing OS, as it's been around far too long.
So I'm thinking that either 8.0 contains the software that can make use of either 1.0 and 2.0 hardware to at least achieve 1.0 functionality - if that's the case, 8.0 has to be on these new cars by the time they're delivered... Or the new hardware simply isn't shipping any time soon.
The only other possibility is that if cars are shipping with new AP hardware now or soon, they also have the complete 1.0 suite of hardware as well. Which seems silly.
Thoughts? Any of this make sense?�
Aug 25, 2016
FaceACA I'll be surprised if they meet the model 3 timeline. I'd bank on mid/late 2018 for production. (Not counting them making 1 car just to say they made the deadline)�
Aug 25, 2016
brkaus I'm still waiting to see them build all the "future delivery" cars and put them in a building somewhere before they start on the new hardware configuration. The whole concept of lock order now and allow future delivery many months away just astounds me. Sure, they get orders locked in, but it sounds like high overhead dealing with people anytime there is a configuration change.�
Aug 25, 2016
FlatSix911 No worries... the $3K upgrade fee after purchase remains unchanged for legacy owners
�
Aug 26, 2016
arosenbe I'm in the exact same boat: Late Sept/Oct delivery of a MS. I've been making myself pretty nuts over the possibility of taking delivery and then finding out that cars with AP 2.0 are shipping a couple of weeks later. In terms of your post, I think (hope) that there's a scenario that you haven't mentioned. From a hardware perspective, I think there are three possibilities. 1) AP 1.0 hardware installed. (This is the minimum we will get). 2) AP 2.0 hardware ready. In this case, the harnessing, wiring, etc., needed for AP 2.0 will be there, enabling future installation of full AP 2.0 hardware possible at a later date for a hopefully reasonable cost. (This is my hope.) 3) AP 2.0 hardware installed. Ready to go once the software is updated. (I think that this is highly unlikely.)
Fingers crossed. Thoughts?�
Aug 26, 2016
number12 same boat with X. Out of order window. If somehow you found out before delivery it was on next weeks model. Would you forfeit deposit and start over?
It would basically be paying $2500+waiting for 2.0 hardware on a purchased not leased car.�
Aug 26, 2016
AmpedRealtor Because they can?�
Aug 26, 2016
ericscottf There's no way your #3 is the case. It would mean they have to have new firmware on the car by the time the first one gets to its owner. It's inconceivable that the current firmware works with whatever the new AP hardware is.
The only way this is even remotely possible is if they shipped AP2.0 hardware and when people got the car, they said "your AP doesn't work for now. It'll be enabled when the new OS is pushed in a few days/weeks/etc." Tho this seems very unlikely as well. Seems like a lot of trouble just to make a few obsessed people happy. Some group of people are going to get the last AP1.0 hardware with no upgrade path. From our perspective, we'd prefer it wasn't us. From their perspective, it doesn't matter who it is.
#2 is possible but highly unlikely. Wiring, cutouts, different panels, brackets... All shipping before any hardware is installed? Seems doubtful. I suppose they could make it possible to retrofit, but I would assume it would be expensive. Who knows how much the electronics depart from what's current? Could be that the main computer can't interface to the new AP hardware at all. We're pretty sure the new AP hardware is a different manuf, so that's entirely possible.
My (pessimistic) guess at this time is that the new OS will show up before the AP2.0 hardware does, and it will include the software for using both types of AP hardware. (or there will just be 2 flavors of the new OS, one for old hardware, one for new, but it'll appear the same to users, etc). It seems unnecessarily complex for them to try to time the release of the software with people receiving cars with the new hardware in them.
I would seriously consider stalling or cancelling my order if I knew that 2.0 was coming soon. But my current car is barely hanging on, and winter is coming... And paying an extra $3k (2500 deposit + 500 more for AP) for the feature would eat up the discount I got and then some. The car was enough of a stretch as it is.�
Aug 26, 2016
trils0n If autopilot 2.0 is something you think you need then you should order when it is available. Ordering an autopilot 1.0 car when what you really want is 2.0, and hoping it will be a 2.0 magically by the time it arrives seems like a recipe for disappointment.�
Aug 26, 2016
Saghost We know for a fact that Tesla has left provisions in the Model X for components we've never seen (empty section of the windshield housing, wiring in the headliner behind it.
Since they appear to be in every car, I'd argue that they are part of a future plan rather than being a mistake or leftover (20 engineering changes per week, remember? There's no way they'd leave those things in place if they didn't have a reason.
Based on that information, my expectation is that all Xs and the refresh Ss are in that second bucket - pre-wired for more autopilot than is installed, possibly enough for full autonomy and possibly not.�
Aug 26, 2016
stopcrazypp I would not say that this is necessarily a good assumption. The recent public dropping of Mobileye kind of makes it more uncertain if this would still be true going forward, but the wiring diagrams from the service manual shows a triple cam Mobileye system. This would likely be a backwards compatible chip and system (one of the cameras is the same as the current center cam). Or even if not entirely backwards compatible, most of the APIs will be the same (so relatively easy to program something that is compatible with both). Thus it is entirely possible that they use AP 1.0 software on a newer Mobileye chip/camera set.
Of course this would be different if rumors are true Tesla will switch to nVidia in the near future.�
Aug 26, 2016
jvonbokel I don't see why it wouldn't be backwards compatible. In fact, I fully expect it will be. Of the 3 cameras, one will likely be identical to the existing AP1.0 hardware. I think any "new processor" (i.e. internally developed) is months away. Tesla will likely still rely on the Mobileye processors for now. Their partnership has ended, but it doesn't mean Tesla is no longer a customer. When their internal efforts match/exceed the capabilities of the Mobileye parts, then they'll switch over.
There has to be a reason, agreed, but it doesn't mean that reason is to support a retrofit. In the case of a component that has 2 (or 3) inputs instead of one, it could just be that they are out of the original component, and the cost is similar enough to justify installing the new component. As Elon has said regarding the Model 3, if any one of the thousands of necessary parts is not available, you can't build the car. Managing all those pipelines at once is difficult enough without having to synchronize them perfectly. Perhaps they set a date with an array of AP2.0 hardware suppliers to be ready by Sept 1st, and the supplier of the component we're seeing was ahead of schedule, while another supplier is still on-target or even behind. Once they're all ready, then all the components will be installed (and Tesla can make an official announcement). That doesn't mean Tesla's going to commit to enabling a retrofit of the missing components for all cars built in-between.
Don't get me wrong, I hope you (and others) are right, and that they're going to offer a retrofit, but history suggests they avoid that as much as possible and prefer to tell people the simplest upgrade path is to buy a new car.�
Aug 26, 2016
Saghost Maybe I'm reading their history differently than you are. Folding mirrors had harnesses before the parts, and Tesla offered a retrofit. Tesla offered a retrofit for there parking sensors, too, though the price was crazy because they wanted to replace both bumpers. Ludicrous mode for P85Ds, now the 100 upgrade for P90DL owners.
I can't think of another car manufacturer that has offered updates anywhere near as consistently (or at all, really, aside from recalls,) but Tesla has offered a lot of them.
Not everything, and very little on the battery side (which I expect to change post gigafactory,) but they have a history of updates, and I'm pretty sure we'll see this one too.
I sure hope so - took delivery yesterday, my X looks like all the others I've seen with AP1.1 since the X launch event (the camera interface and location of the presumed Mobileye processor are clearly different on the X from the S, but there's been no evidence that it works any differently.)
Walter�
Aug 26, 2016
number12 Also no other company offers new things one week after delivery. They wait a year or max half a year. Which is good and bad. When tesla almost offers zero incentive to lease there is a bigger risk of unestimatable depreciation slide that's solely on consumers�
Aug 26, 2016
ohmman Well, it depends on when you take delivery. Really, what I think you're saying is that the release schedule with other manufacturers is predictable, so you can work around it if you want. The fact that you cannot is currently unique to Tesla as far as I know, and it seems to bother some people. I support them pushing forward as quickly as possible, but understand that opinions differ.�
Aug 26, 2016
stillageek I thought it was a "one off" but it was waived for our order as well. We placed the order last weekend. I think it had to be in by 8/22. Throw in a referral discount and it almost pays for the $2500 autopilot fee.�
Aug 26, 2016
stillageek The destination fee was waived for our order as well. I believe it had to be in by 8/22. Sorry for the double post. This forum is a bit different than others I am used to.�
Aug 28, 2016
wave1 I�m used to waiting�
Back in December of 2010, I placed a deposit for my first Model S. (reservation #2450) After returning to Vegas from Silicon Valley, with no service center here, I canceled in April of 2013 once production started. Then reordered in August of 2013, once the SC opened up here. I missed the retracting mirror by like 2 weeks when I took delivery in late October of 2013.
I made my Model X deposit of $5K in early April. After finally getting a test drive, I finalized my 5 seat Model X 90D in late May, with stated delivery date of July. In mid July I got a call from the Tesla rep in Fremont, asking me if I wanted to change to the 6 or 7 seat configuration, and if I did they would deliver in late September. (even in July that were trying to push as many cars thru before the end of the quarter) At the time, I didn't want to switch, but after hearing that I might not get the car this year, (I need the tax credit), I later decide to switch to the 6 seat configuration, they waived the change fee, but the change increased the cost of the car by 3K for the 6 seat config. I officially changed on August 10, I got my VIN on August 16, I was given an unofficial delivery date of September 20. All that being said, now with AP 2.0 on the horizon, I can't really see spending $111K on a car that comes with soon the be outdated hardware. (don't want to repeat the retracting mirror experience) No one can really say when the AP 2.0 hardware will come, but I think it will hit in October. Last week, I ask my DS to push back the delivery to at least late October and I willing to wait longer as long as it comes this year with AP 2.0 hardware.
To date, no-one has seen any S or X coming off the line with the new hardware.
Even though my dashboard still is in ordered status, the DS says its in the production schedule and can't be delayed. Well, as I see it, that leaves me with 3 options:
1 - Cancel my order and start over, I hope this option nets out to cost me $1500, (way less that a retrofit, if its available) as I hope I only lose $2500 of my $5K deposit, But as I ordered when there wasn't a referral program, as a Telsa owner I can get $1K back by using my own referral.
2 - If possible, request a change back to the 5 seat config, this would only cost $500 and really postpone it for a long time.
3 - Wait until the cars shows, and it it doesn't have the AP 2.0 hardware, cancel at that time. I'm making the assumption that the cancelation cost would be the same.
I'm not rich, I drive a lot so my gas cost per month would be over $500 with an ICE, so my net coast are about the same and I see the value in the choice I've made to help the environment and to "send my money to Silicon Valley instead of the Middle East" But I will find a way, even it cost me a little more to wait for the new hardware, because I can't see paying that much for a car, and if it doesn't come with the AP 2.0 hardware, being disappointed with the car the first day I get it and regretting not waiting everyday after that.�
Aug 28, 2016
number12 Tracking your post. In a similar situation.�
Aug 28, 2016
xav- don't be pessimistic!! They will ship at least 3 cars at the end of 2017�
Aug 29, 2016
jvonbokel You make some excellent points. I think most of the retrofits they've offered have been fairly simple, but I could see this falling in that category depending on just what all is already there and what is required.�
Sep 2, 2016
AZ Desert Driver I think there is a big bonus in Elons contract if he ships a Model 3 on time. May not have to ship a lot, but its a milestone in his contract.�
Sep 2, 2016
u00mem9 IIRC, it is a milestone tied directly to option vesting, but I don't think there is a deadline.�
Sep 2, 2016
jvonbokel Correct.
Per the SEC filing (bold indicates completed):
� Successful completion of the Model X Alpha Prototype;
� Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
� Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle;
� Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype;
� Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype;
� Completion of the first Model 3 Production Vehicle;
� Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;
� Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles;
� Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and
� Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.
Source: Elon Musk is on track to collect $1.6 billion from Tesla
They're probably getting pretty close to completing the Model 3 Beta, and aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles.
That gross margin goal is probably going to be tough, considering that margins will inevitably shrink once Model 3 is in production.�
Sep 2, 2016
AZ Desert Driver Hmmm- I was sure I saw some deadlines in those goals. And a few more goals to boot. All king sized stretches for a mere mortal, but in the contract never the less.�
Sep 2, 2016
u00mem9 This contract was written years ago, and if there were deadlines, he would have missed every one of them!
�
Sep 5, 2016
CSFTN I'm sorry - too lazy to read thru this entire thread. But I'd like to suggest an idea; apologies if it has already been considered.
Several sources (most importantly, George Hotz from comma.ai) have spoken about the color channel limitation in MobileEye's/Tesla's self-driving hardware. Specifically, the camera used is a normal RGB-based camera, but the CPU only processes the red channel. So, Autopilot can only see, process, and react to structures that have some red in its coloration. Pure white (paint) has no red so the camera simply doesn't see white structures (of course, I'm simplifying). There's a video where Hotz talks about how he made a system that uses all 3 channels and "sees in color" over 1 weekend and specifically calls that task "trivial." Now, he may be a special person but it would seem to me Tesla can do the same thing in the space of a couple of months, it would cost marginally more (maybe like $500 more). Perhaps it needs a 2nd processor as it is tripling its processing, or perhaps a very minor function of making a composite image from combining all 3 channels (I'm using the word composite as a simple english term, not an electrical engineering term), or perhaps they've changed the data processed as a single byte to a 3 byte word.
Thoughts?�
1/1/2015
guest Well, the car is at the SC. It came early. It's beautiful, I've looked at it, it has no new hardware that can be seen. I haven't setup my delivery date yet, I'm going to wait until next week, see what the Firmware 8.0/8.1 update brings, and get a look at the next batch of cars coming from the factory, before I decide to accept or cancel and reorder.�
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