Nov 29, 2012
Babylonfive Perhaps, but I think that they won't even think of the 60s before the end of the year, even if everything was approved.
Here's why: anything different might slow the factory, and they want to blow their delivery estimate for the end of the year out of the water - therefore reduce the risk, and ship 4K or more. It drives their stock price up early next year when they announce beating expectations.
That's my theory and I'm sticking to it.
Thoughts?
p.s. - I want to be wrong about this, reeally i do... <sigh>�
Nov 29, 2012
Kipernicus I'll take a couple week delay for a long term positive impact on stock price!�
Nov 29, 2012
SteveH I agree with the conclusion: no chance of getting 60s this year. But if we can get to January and everyone ahead of us has their cars already then at least we don't have to wait til Feb. Sure would like to see my car sometime in Jan.�
Nov 29, 2012
Tempus yeah - i figure once they start producing the 60's, those of us under 5k reservation number should get em pretty quick - can't imagine there's that many of us. Here's to early january!�
Nov 29, 2012
vcor I've been told there is a reasonable chance of getting my 60KW this year, but it may end up in January. I think they'd like to ship a few so they can say it's in production, if they do make some this year and how many, that's still unclear. No VIN yet. (P236).�
Nov 29, 2012
SteveH You've got the lowest 60kWh # I've seen yet. I'm pulling for you to get it this year. And welcome to posting!�
Nov 29, 2012
Discoducky My money is still for 60's to ship in the Fall. So what is the last day of Fall again?:cursing:�
Nov 29, 2012
mbcaffe
I agree. I think they will start a production this quarter and deliver a couple so they can report a milestone on next earnings report.
P3446�
Nov 29, 2012
ahimberg 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60! I sent an email to tesla also to see if they'd get any info on production ETA for my 60 (P3081)
hopefully we'll at least get a timeline for 60 production start to get something to string us along a little longer. (and selfishly hope that they don't deliver too many >3000 before I get mine)
�
Nov 29, 2012
Discoducky @aimberg, you are right after me and just down the street (I'm in Issaquah), I'd bet we get ours at the same time, maybe in a delivery party, thanks for sending off an email to TM!�
Nov 29, 2012
Grendal I think you're dead on. Plus, I'm sure the profit margin is higher and just simply more profit to be had on Max Pack cars. That will help to show everyone that Tesla will reach Elon's announced goal of making profit by next year and being cash flow positive before the end of this year.
Tesla Motors CEO: We Expect to Be Profitable Next Year | Fox Business Video�
Nov 29, 2012
ahimberg Good odds of that yeah! I will choose the earliest time they offer me though, no offense :tongue:�
Nov 30, 2012
Ceilidh I have to say it is hard watching folks who reserved much later than me get their cars so much sooner... damn my cashflow.
Having said that, I am still glad I took the $10K I would have spent on upgrading to the 85kWh Battery and put solar on my roof. Once the car is here I'll be glad I can drive it on pure sunlight most (if not all) of the time.
I am happy that so many peeps are hearing good things from Tesla. I just hope us paupers with 60 kWh reservations hear something good soon as well...
Cheers.
Just to clarify: I put Solar on the roof of my house, not on the roof of the car, which I also don't own yet, because I ordered the 60 kWh battery.�
Nov 30, 2012
Babylonfive Thanks @vcor, @discoducky, etc. and that would be a great feather in the cap if they could say they started shipment (with even a few), but the rejiggering of the line seems like a risk that's not acceptable for the level of value, compared to getting more of a 'drum beat' of success: start fall deliveries of 85, beat the delivery estimate for fall/2012, start 60s in spring, start 40s in late spring?�
Nov 30, 2012
Vger This is probably the biggest driver, they need the gross margin and the attendant cash flow in this Q4, just as much as the overall numbers. A few 60's would not dilute much, but if the logistics are an issue at all, why would they risk it?�
Nov 30, 2012
Ceilidh Because some of us who ordered 60 kWh batteries put down our reservation the opening week 3.5 years ago? Might want to be more thankful to the early believer despite income levels. Only putting out the most pricey cars adds to the public opinion (that is still pretty strong thanks to the recent political season) that Tesla only makes cars for the rich.
IMHO it would make sense for them to quell this concern by churning out some lower priced cars ASAP so they can say they make cars that are cheaper than $100k.
Just a thought.
PS--Your forum screen name cracks me up. I keep picturing the bald chick every time I see it, if I am interpreting your reference correctly...
Cheers.�
Nov 30, 2012
Babylonfive Yea, I thought it was the first Star Trek movie, as well...
�
Dec 1, 2012
ahimberg So I got a response but nothing detailed, just that I'm on track for early 2013 delivery. (they didn't respond to when 60's in general go into production)
guess we can hope for the tesla bulletin board to get an official answer soon
I also asked about getting the 12way+heated textile seats but the response was you have to delay into the 2013 post price increase to get that option.�
Dec 2, 2012
Iz I am a 60kWh reservation (#1431). Delaying an order until the heated textile seats are available may exclude one from having access to the Supercharger Network. Something to look into.�
Dec 2, 2012
ahimberg There was a mention on one of the other threads of someone who said their DS was going to let them change their config (maybe to Red?) and keep the SC credit. Unknown if they'll do the same just for changing your config for seats. While I'd really like them too, waiting an additional 4 months is not worth it... (plus my wife hates heated seats since heat is bad for certain types of back problems.. she'd want a seat ice-r)�
Dec 2, 2012
Iz My current vehicle has heated seats and rarely use them. However, I could wait the 4-months. At this point would prefer it in the Spring.�
Dec 2, 2012
dsmith2189 don't need the seat heater in hawaii. I wonder when they will offer that seat icer.�
Dec 2, 2012
SuperCoug If waiting 4 months to get the heated 12 way adjustable textile seats means you would have pay the new higher price then those become VERY EXPENSIVE SEATS! Are you sure you're willing to pay an extra $2500?�
Dec 3, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla I'm back!
Posted on the Tesla Bulletin Board today:
When will 40 kWh cars, 60 kWh cars, Standard Suspension and new 2013 Red begin production? | Forums | Tesla Motors
�
Dec 3, 2012
markb1 Wonder when they are going to update their website:
Model S Options and Pricing | Tesla Motors�
Dec 3, 2012
Iz No way! Did not know there was a price hit for the heated seats. Will gladly take delivery in January as gg's post indicates the 60 kWh battery should be available.�
Dec 3, 2012
David-El GG,
I had seen that on the Tesla Official site as well. I also got an e-mail stating the same thing.
B5,
Looks like your theory was right on with 60 kWh starting in 2013! I suppose that means 2013 will be an exciting year for me. :biggrin:�
Dec 3, 2012
jerry33 Really it's only $1000 because before you had to have the $1500 leather seat option to get heated 12-ways.�
Dec 3, 2012
Babylonfive Absolutely, David. Our P#s are very close, so arriving about the same time. My best guess, if they start production right at January 1 is that there is a small chance to get it delivered in January proper.
More generally:
One question, if I were to bother GeorgeB would be whether Tesla will, in January, build a mix of continuing 85s and new 60s, or will they produce 60s to roughly get up to the same P#s as the 85s... I won't freak out either way, but it will make a few weeks difference. Please understand: I just want my car. <sigh>�
Dec 3, 2012
dsmith2189 I am wondering the same question, but I am on the 85kWh side of the equation, no offence but I was hoping they don't start on the 60s until the "end" of January. that way they may have time to start on my car before switching gears. I guess there is no single answer that will make everybody happy. Please understand: I just want my car. <sigh>
I have almost the same exact config as you.
85KWH, Non-perf, Silver ext/Obeche int, Pano, Tech, 21" Silver wheels�
Dec 3, 2012
Tempus Im with you. Personally im hoping they clear out the 85s to 4000 or so and then they fill in with 60s come jan 1. (Hey,i can dream!).
Of course now the question is... How many 60s are there in those first ferw thousand. I wonder if it'll follownthe 25% ish that we've seen in polls on the site here.
Oh, and just to mention ... Great communication from George B. was very clear and concise, and well timed before we had a chance to go too nuts with the speculation.�
Dec 3, 2012
dsmith2189 Yes you can see the eye of the hurricane pass over whenever george B posts. but you know that the storm will continue on the other side when it will get "nuts" again.�
Dec 4, 2012
Robert.Boston That's a great question. From an equity POV, once the 60kWh pack is available, Tesla ought to catch up the Rs and Ps that were skipped over initially. Doing so would move deliveries closer to the first-in, first-out ideal. From a logistics POV, though, there may be some reasons not to shift over to 100% 60kWh packs. Not sure; just sayin'.�
Dec 4, 2012
Babylonfive Sorry, but I think you are missing an important point: if they continue to build 85s of a LATER production number even though they have 60s on-line, then 85s during that January timeframe you mention are out-of-order from the reservations. Choices we've discussed are:
- do 60s as soon as possilbe, and do them quickly or only until 60s and 85s are *generally* back in sync - most fair, but perhaps difficult to do
- do 60s as soon as possible, but just run them both in the factory in parallel without any jiggering - less fair (sets delta of all 60s later) but least difficult
- wait on 60s to get more 85s out? - Least fair, and goes against the existing reservation order...
Edit: just noticed that this correlates with robert-boston comment above... completely agree with his comments.�
Dec 4, 2012
Tempus well - i'm wondering what would make building mostly 60's "more difficult"... aren't the cars pretty much identical apart from the battery itself? Esp since most (if not all) of the early 60's will come with the supercharger hardware in place? I can't think of any other differences offhand, or reasons why most of the production of the car itself would differ between a 60 or an 85...�
Dec 4, 2012
Robert.Boston Tesla might have to ramp up its production capability of the 60kWh packs, and so it might be the case that the chassis production line is moving faster than the 60kWh pack production rate. Or not; that's just an example.�
Dec 4, 2012
Vexar In the email that many of us got yesterday, there was some mention of EPA testing forthcoming. This is my take on what needs to be done:
1. manufacture 60kWh battery packs
2. develop/ test firmware adjustments to optimize for this electrical design
3. install battery pack
4. load appropriate firmware
5. do appropriate burn-in testing for the first 100 vehicles
The Battery packs are built in Palo Alto from what I remember, not Fremont, so re-tooling manufacturing process may not have quite the room. I'm betting they have built some production 60kWh battery packs already. I would say most of the production time cost is 1, 2, and 5. I wonder how much impact the weight difference will have on suspension tuning. I expect that 2 is going on right now. My hope is that the first 400 can be delivered (or picked up) before the end of January 2013. For those who are doing the factory pick-up, thanks for contributing to the "communal" delivery cost. I at least plan on returning some kind of favor by offering my NEMA 14-50 free to use for any Model S owner.�
Dec 4, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla The battery packs are now being assembled at the factory itself in a "clean room" setting; it's mentioned somewhere in the National Geographic Tesla factory video.�
Dec 5, 2012
Alpha I apologize in advance if this has been addressed before, but I'm new around here and haven't been able to find the answer with several targeted searches. I am thinking of calling Tesla to ask...
Does anyone know if you get the 40kwh or 60kwh battery that at some point in the future you could upgrade to a bigger battery?
Presumably the chassis and even motor is identical on all the models (with the exception of the performance model which likely has a bigger motor) so the swap out should be technically possible...
Same question goes for supercharger option - is that something that you can only buy up front, or is it something that could be added on later (like when you buy a bigger battery later...)
Same question, really goes for a lot of the options... what about the rear facing seats? Can these be added on later relatively easily? My kids are probably still too young (aged 2 1/2 and 4) to realistically use the rear facing seats, but in 2-3 years I think I could get a lot of use out of them-- so might make sense to spread the cost out by getting that option later...
This car is more expensive than any car I've ever bought and I want to see what I can do to keep the cost down (and maybe be able to make some upgrades a few years down the line.) I imagine a lot of you feel the same way...
In my dream world I wish I could afford the performance model, fully loaded, but that's over 100K!!
Thanks�
Dec 5, 2012
dsm363 The only option that Tesla says they can easily add later is the child seats but it will cost you more to have it later than getting it done at the factory.
In terms of battery and supercharging upgrades after the fact, it might be technically possible but Tesla has not committed to doing that. I'd get whatever you think you'll want now and in the future as long as you own the car and not count on Tesla making them available. They say Supercharging requires additional hardware so if any of those two happen, the battery swap would be more likely but your performance may not be upgraded as well (going from a 40kWh car and upgrading to the 85 kWh pack may not drop your 0-60 time). It could, I'm just not sure if we know that yet. Good luck.�
Dec 5, 2012
Alpha Thanks very much for your answer. That is helpful.
- - - Updated - - -
update.. according to what was said on this video:
http://www.tested.com/news/feature/451871-tested-test-drives-tesla-model-s-electric-car/
You won't be able to add the rear facing child seats later, it has to be done at the factory when the car is built...
Don't know if that's true or not, but he sounded pretty confident when he said that...�
Dec 5, 2012
Vexar
Thanks for that. As of July, they were still at the Palo Alto office according to my tour plan.�
Dec 5, 2012
dsmith2189 you may want to take into consideration that many vehicles that ordered the child seats did not receive them when the car was shipped and will be installed at a later date.�
Dec 5, 2012
Robert.Boston If a car was prepped for having the third row, they're easy to add. If your car wasn't prepped, though, it appears to lack some required latch points.�
Dec 6, 2012
Alpha Just spoke to Tesla directly. They said that the child seat definately *can* be added on later, but it would cost more than if you order it up front because there is some additional wiring involved. That's good to know...
- - - Updated - - -
They also said as far as upgrading to a bigger battery - it might be possible later but no guarantees,
and as far as the super charger goes, you won't be able to because the wiring involved is pretty intense.�
Dec 6, 2012
Kipernicus While it's good for Tesla to get as many cars out in Dec as possible, I'm concerned that with this latest "Do you want your car in December?" email that the production line will be so flooded with 85's that they won't get to us 60's until late Jan or even Feb�
Dec 6, 2012
SteveH I still have faith. Besides, they won't want the press associated with missing this already revised deadline. I'm confident that at least one 60 rolls of the line in Jan and probably several. (Hopefully mine).�
Dec 6, 2012
Babylonfive Kipper, I don't see the issue. The email simply asks if folks can wait, not if they want to pull in.
The little that I think I see of the Tesla 'character' is that they want to be fair where they can (even if some on the forum have argued otherwise), and thus they will try to get the 60s going as quickly as possible after January, irrespective of the 85kWH deliveries. In fact, asking for folks to volunteer to delay should make the 60 situation better, not worse.�
Dec 6, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Babylon, I'm with Kip on this one. A lot more are going to say Yes to that December delivery question than those who may say no. And, surely, the 1,600 or so cars that Tesla can build the rest of this month will not be enough to service those many orders.
There will indeed be a lot of spillover into January and even February. Folks who said Yes now but who don't make it eventually this year will surely expect their cars in January/February now rather than March/April/whenever that they had been prepared for earlier based on their high sequence numbers.
There's a good chance that many of us low Ps with 60 configs will see February and March now. Tesla can still start producing some 60s in January but, not get too deep. Color me bummed.�
Dec 6, 2012
shokunin I think the email is more like when an airline overbooks and asks for volunteers to bump to the next flight. They gather an interest list and at some point they call the few that volunteered to bump and tell the rest, go ahead and board as usual.
At this point I think Tesla knows what it can produce and deliver for the rest of the year and going into early 2013. While many of us responded with a Heck yeah! I want it ASAP, once they hit the limit they'll communicate to the rest of respondants to expect delivery in 2013.�
Dec 6, 2012
dsmith2189 It looks like they are trying to fill the production queue with those 85kWh reservations who don't want to or can't wait until Jan for whatever reason. that way they can efficiently service them and then mix (in relative reservation order) the ones who are willing to wait, in with the 60kWhs that start in January (pick a number between 1 and 31). When you think about it that way they can satisfy as many people (customers) as possible and eleviate some stress all arround.�
Dec 7, 2012
Tempus Yeah.... I REALLY hope they turn 60 production on full blast come the first week in january. In the meantime im trying hard not to be jealous of all the 4000+ folks being notified this week.�
Dec 7, 2012
Babylonfive No, GG. It's only an opportunity to push out those who might fall into the earlier period, and NOT to pull anyone in. Therefore, as soon as 60 kicks in (January), they would either be caught up to reservation parity (unlikely) or at least be placed in parallel with the 85s. This won't push anyone any further back than we already would have been without the latest 'NOW' email.�
Dec 7, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Now, there's an optimist!�
Dec 7, 2012
Babylonfive Also, I'm wondering if something's gone a bit wrong in their decision to send out so many of the emails, but only with respect to setting proper expectations in the community. Perhaps they should have stopped before 10k!�
Dec 7, 2012
spleen Yeah, this is how I interpreted the email as well - it shouldn't cause any 60s to get pushed back if Tesla is producing cars in the way that I'm understanding it.�
Dec 9, 2012
Yogionthebeach Any guesses on the split between 85 kwh and 60 kwh starting Jan? If they do want to achieve parity, I would think 30/70 for may be 8 weeks. This will provide about 2000 cars with 60 kwh - not enough for parity but any more skewed ratio may hurt revenue....�
Dec 9, 2012
Babylonfive Yea, that was the point of my earlier questions, and I agree that some hybrid solution as you mention is the way they will go. Sad, but then means I won't have my lil Silver Stallion until Feb. at least (sigh)�
Dec 10, 2012
Robert.Boston My guess is that they would optimally run nothing but 60kWh batteries for a week. Doing so would let them catch up in the queue order and eliminate any risk of putting the wrong battery in a car. We've got no insight into the battery fabrication process, though, so I have no basis for knowing whether that step can simply shift from the 85kWh batteries to the 60kWh batteries without productivity impacts.�
Dec 10, 2012
Yogionthebeach I'm assuming plug-n-play with any battery pack but that may be too simplistic. Good point about mixups and hence the need to stick to one battery type each week. If so, they may have to go 60 for 3 wks and just one wk of 85 in the next two months to catch up. Of course, we do not know what percent of reservations up to say 5000 are 60 kwh. And some fraction of them waiting for red (yours truly being one of them!).�
Dec 10, 2012
Babylonfive I sure do hope that Tesla sees the 'missing 60kWH reservation numbers' (that will be left after the 85s are combed-out) as deliveries which should be equalized a bit. This would imply a chunk of 60 production in January to at least try to catch up the 60s to get closer to the same reservation #s as the 85s. It would set a great standard for the 40s as well.
It might not be possible or efficient, but I hope there's an attempt to be 'fair'.�
Dec 10, 2012
Yogionthebeach +1
Are you listening TM?�
Dec 10, 2012
gregincal The big unknown is how many there are. If you look at highest reservation # versus highest VIN, the question is how much of the difference is due to 40s, 60s, standard suspension, red or just plain cancelations. It's impossible to even estimate how many 60's they'll need to build to catch up.�
Dec 10, 2012
Iz Getting as many 85's out before 60's and 40's improves their financial position.�
Dec 10, 2012
Sousaphil
I'm trying to balance the benefits of this as a shareholder vs. the frustration of having a reservation since 2010 and being pushed back in line. It's one thing to have people leapfrog to get on the Sig list, they had to put much more skin in the game.
Funny thing is, the only reason why I care is the timing of the $7,500 from Uncle Sam.�
Dec 10, 2012
Iz As soon as they show a steady profit your shareholder position will improve even more. Eventually, we will get our vehicles. I've been a reservation holder since late October 2009. If it were not for the Sigs, we may have been looking at late spring or early summer 2013 instead of (hopefully) winter 2013.�
Dec 10, 2012
xhawk101 Ditto 60 kwh Waiting on the new red... a double whammy!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD�
Dec 10, 2012
Babylonfive Please keep in mind that Tesla always made clear that smaller battery versions would 'come later'; always a few months delta.
So, catching up all 60s to their exact reservation order with 85s would be too much, considering the 'delta' mentioned above - I'd just like to see them crank out a few weeks to a month of concentrated 60s purely so I get mine in a reasonable timeframe.
I also predict that they will ship MORE 85s in December than they committed, but just not sure hos many,. I'll go out on a limb and say at least 4000 total for 2012.
So, in summary: it's unreasonable to expect the 60s to catch up in order, but I hope they'll push the 60s out quick.�
Dec 11, 2012
Kipernicus I keep reminding myself that the 1 month (hopefully) delay is a small price for all the value we are getting with the 60
1. better efficiency (95 vs 89 mpge)
2. 208 mile range (only 21.5% less than 265, but 60 is 29% less than 85)
3. still get supercharger access (free for those of us lucky enough to get grandfathered into the "early adopter" program)
4. Over 300hp (only 17% less than 362)
5. Sub-6 second 0-60
In a couple of months it won't really matter that P10000+ got their car before P1440!�
Dec 11, 2012
Iz We should be getting ours about the same time.�
Dec 11, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Yes, Kip! These are the mantras that I'm swearing by as well.
Those rich suckers fell for the 300-mile-range carrot and forked out atleast $8k-$10k more to subsidize Tesla's business/existence for the rest of us :tongue:�
Dec 12, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla I'll have to eat my words posted above
I was in the process of requesting an updated pre-MVPA (to reflect an additional downpayment that I made as well as the 2013 model year for my car) and as part of that, just had a chat with a Tesla ownership experience rep about the 60 kWh production timeframe; the rep checked with his manager as well on what follows.
So, as some have suspected, January is indeed going to be the early early phase of the rampup for the 60 kWh pack production with the 85 kWh production still going almost full bore. It appears that I may not see my 60 kWh-equipped car till late February and there's apparently a reasonable chance that it may end up being March
The mandatory disclaimer to all this is that the Tesla reps do not have enough visibility yet into how all this (60 kWh rampup, 85/60 ratio) is going to shake out in January and February but, as of now, they've set my expectations as late February and even March.
I cannot take this anymore and cannot subject my wife to a prolonged bad commute situation given that we have to carpool in our one car. I've come too far and have seen too much water under the bridge to do anything other than switch to the 85 kWh pack now. Wish I could have seen this coming sooner; I could have had my car by now
With a switch to 85, the rep indicated that a mid-January delivery window at the latest is on the cards in all likelihood and that my config has no red flags otherwise.
Kip, Ceilidh and others, sorry for abandoning your ranks but, I can't take this anymore. Screw it!�
Dec 12, 2012
SteveH So CAN we switch? I was under the impression that it wasn't possible to make the change anymore?�
Dec 12, 2012
Discoducky Bummer, I'd go with you but I can't afford the 85kWh. If I could I'd have done it long ago. I'm really bummed that 60kWh is so delayed. With your new information we might switch to Sunset Red if TM will allow.�
Dec 12, 2012
Babylonfive Same here, ducky. i'm ticked that i'm not getting the same feedback that GG got, and i'm forced to rethink everything.
David�
Dec 12, 2012
Discoducky Email your TM contact.�
Dec 12, 2012
SteveH OK I just got off the phone with Tesla. The story I was told was a little different than what GG was told. Mike said that production for 60's was slated to phase in during early January and that he had not heard that it would be a slow phase in. He fully expected by car 3339 to be ready by the 1rst or 2nd week of February (of course no promises).
He did say that there was no way I could change my config now, several months after I finalized and "less than a month before we start production on your car".
I hope Mike was right. I lose access to my current car on Jan 11 and will be scrambling for transport after that.�
Dec 12, 2012
gregincal Although I'll point out that delivery estimates for Sunset Red are running April/May, which is still quite different from Feb/Mar.�
Dec 12, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Fielded another call from Tesla a little while ago. Asked the rep for a firm commitment that, if I do switch to 85 (and he didn't suggest anything to the effect that I cannot), I'd get it in early January (with pickup at the factory). He suggested that, given my low sequence number, priority could possibly be given for early Jan assembly, but, he had to check with higher-ups.
Now, got the followup call: there are no guarantees according to him even if they could prioritize it and push it through given that there may be supply chain impact/considerations (?). He assured me that I'm destined to be one of the first few 60s to be built and that, there may not be more than 3 weeks separating a 85 delivery (if I were to switch) to the 60.
Oh well. I don't see much of a point in switching now and will have to rent a second car or something for some unknown period.
I'm telling myself to never, never, never put myself and family in such a situation again - this has been one long, agonizing experience�
Dec 12, 2012
Kipernicus Sorry for all the agony, GG!
Looking back it may have been better to lease a volt or leaf or even buy a functional used car to manage the commutes. But back in Oct 11 there was so much positive energy seeing the robots and factory in place we really didn't anticipate a possible Feb/Mar 13 delivery, considering our low #s. Well, Tesla will only go through this startup phase once, so no worries about going through it again!�
Dec 12, 2012
gg_got_a_tesla Thanks, Kip. Sorry that I was complicit in dragging you and your family into this cesspool too!
If the TMC admins can make it happen, I'd like to change my handle to gg_once_wanted_a_tesla_real_bad_but_now_just_wants_to_get_it_over_with�
Dec 12, 2012
Kipernicus LOL!!�
Dec 12, 2012
dsm363 The 40 and 60 kWh cars appear to be a gateway EVs in order to get you hooked and asking for the 85 kWh model. Hope it works out for you how you want gg.�
Dec 12, 2012
Ceilidh Hmmmmmmm. Frustrating that TMCs Left Hand still has no idea what the Right is doing. I would have thought that by now they would have got the idea that this is extremely irritating to their customers. George B. : Take a hint. FIX THIS ISSUE.
Would be much easier to deal with certain delays than uncertain ones in limbo. I also frankly cannot afford an 85 kWh battery, but having placed my reservation the first week or so that they were available about 3 1/2 years ago, I will reiterate that this feels like not so much love for being an early supporter. The more that Tesla jerks people around, the worse their reputation will be. As a shareholder, this worries me. It seems like they could have fixed this by now. They have had months to correct the issue of inconsistent disseminated information. Ugh.
I too have a dying car that I would have just been rid of and now will need to fork out a bunch of extra cash to repair first then sell whenever Tesla decides to make my car. I'm not so sure they have any intention of hurrying up on the 60 kWh batteries because it seems to me that if these customers were a priority equal with the 85 kWh customers, then as soon as the EPA had certified the battery, it should have entered the production line.
The tray is the same size in the end. How much harder can it be to fit the same sized tray into the production sequence? They have the most advanced robots in the world. Come on now. Something here is not adding up.
Still excited for the car, but as a Tesla fan due to being an Earth lover rather than to keep up with the Joneses, each day more with an ICE car is another day my great great great great grandchildren will have to deal with the atmospheric mess they inherit, partially on my account.
Cheers.�
Dec 12, 2012
setritt i felt similar and thought there is no reason to get the 85kw vs the 60kw but do feel as though the performance is a good deal. look at audi, the a6 vs the s6 is over a 17k difference!!!�
Dec 12, 2012
mbcaffe Ceilidh
Well said�
Dec 12, 2012
setritt
i called a couple days ago and switched from the 60kw to the performance and they were eager to help. no update on delivery though, but i told them i really would like it this year.�
Dec 12, 2012
ahimberg It does seem strange that they would keep full speed on the 85s, with it seeming like they have built almost all that are on order. Perhaps they'll be building 85s for EU or something if they run out for US.
i'm still holding out hope that tesla is just being conservative in their communication here and will see something by early Feb.�
Dec 12, 2012
Ceilidh Out of curiosity, does anyone know the complete production time from start to finish for a Model S at this point? Does it really take 5 weeks to put a car from start to finish through the assembly line? I understand that some things may take a couple days, like baking the paint coats and such, but I cannot imagine that a single car takes 5 weeks at this stage of the game.
So if the 60 kWh batteries enter into production "in early January," then why would it be February before someone could pick one up at the Factory? By now, they have the sequence down, the checks are in place, the quality controls, etc. As I said above, I really don't think that building the 85 is all that different from the 60 when it comes down to assembling a car. And we know that they already have done it. The EPA needed a full production version to test for their certifications.
Perhaps there are many things I don't know about the auto industry. Perhaps there are many things about which I am naive and if I knew them then I would get this. But if that was the case, then Tesla could post a blog entry about the details of what the deal is with the 60 sized batteries.
I don't need to have my car first. But what is happening here is the same sensation as waiting a long time in line and then someone who thinks for some reason that they are more important cuts in line ahead of you. Except in this case, it is like everyone in line behind me cut in line ahead of me when I was one of the first in line. Life ain't fair, but this is a particularly good example of that concept.
Cheers.�
Dec 12, 2012
Sidney I have the same feeling and have been trying to hold it in for a while now...
From Tesla's perspective, revenue is their top priority and 85 kWh provides that. But from customer's perspective, it sure seems like a typical bait-and-switch! I got lured in with a $49,000 advertised sticker but the only way to get an S today is to fork over another $20k for a 85 kWh. There is no reason to delay another two or three months before start delivering 60 kWh cars. Enough is enough...
Sorry for sounding negative - it's more about frustration than anything else.�
Dec 12, 2012
shokunin Sorry to hear of your frustrations gg, it's been a heck of a roller coaster. I thought Sigs had it bad with sequences out of order by several hundred, looks like P's are out by several thousand.
Sadly, someone at Tesla DOES know the expected/desired rampup and production schedule, but I'm sure it's a closely guarded list based on a number of factors. For sure this is not communicated to DS's since they don't want to commit to anything.
Have you looked at renting a Rav4EV just to get you into the EV groove?�
Dec 13, 2012
SteveH I was pretty frustrated when I read what gg was told yesterday, but have since calmed down. These boards are full of information from junior TM staff that wasn't exactly true. I'm not blaming them, it's just that I don't think they have any more actual knowledge than we do so they tend to rely on rumor and speculation and reading between the lines just like we do.
The last official communication we've had said,andI'm going to take those two statements at face value, which means to me that Tesla is going to start producing 60's in January and crank them out until we catch up with the 85s. Other than all production goals being shifted by 2 months, Tesla has actually been remarkably good about meeting deadlines for being a new company. They also seem to be exceeded production goals now. I may setting myself up for frustration and disappointment, but right now I'm planning getting my car the first week of February at the latest.�
Dec 13, 2012
Ceilidh This is true.
On the one hand, I am acutely aware that I am lucky to have been born in a place where I had opportunities to end up still more lucky enough to be in a position where I am whining about the fact that I am not getting my Model S fast enough. Most certainly a 1st world problem.
Somewhere in Africa right now there is a kid with no parents and no home and no food with a belly full of worms hoping he won't be recruited by the local rebel army at the age of 8. I could just as easily been born that kid, and think about that kind of stuff all the time. So it is kinda hard to get uppity about my Tesla with that perspective.
On the other hand, there is the human tendency to seek a sensation of fair treatment given one's current situation. Pretty hard to turn off.
I think I need to go find a quiet evening corner and a nice neat glass of Talisker. Then I can chill out and wait patiently with the rest of you.
Cheers.�
Dec 20, 2012
Babylonfive Steve, generally I agree with you, but I think there's an alternate interpretation of the Tesla statements. Basically, they don't have to 'catch-up' 60kwh deliveries to 85kwh reservation numbers to satisfy their commit. I read the commit as 'your reservation number will determine your place' in the 60kwh deliveries, and not necessarily in the aggregated deliveries.
This goes back into some of my earlier posts: will they crank 60s alone until the res numbers are in about the same range as 85s (as I infer you mean), or will they just crank both at some 'fair' ratio (50/50? 60/40?) and accept the splitting of the res number status for each separately? I've not seen or heard a definite answer to that question, even though I've asked several times.�
Dec 20, 2012
Tempus it's a very good question, and one i'm obviously keen to get an answer to. My guess is we won't know until we start seeing the 60's get delivery windows.
Overall, i'm trying to take be zen about it *grin*. I'm happy and excited for all the folks getting their cars now, and i'm not worried about when mine will show up. Of course, if we get well into January, and we keep seeing cars in the 5-10k range and above getting deliveries before us, my outlook might change. I REALLY hope they focus on making up that gap once the 60 kwh batteries are put into production.�
Dec 27, 2012
jvonbokel I'm certainly not rich, and I don't like to think of myself as a sucker, but seeing Kipernicus' post does make me feel a little less excited about my choice to go with the 85kWh pack. Strangely, though, I do kind of like the idea that I'm subsidizing Telsa's business for others.
John�
Dec 27, 2012
Brian H Well, a lot of K.'s "Only...." items could be rather important for some people. A 1/6 accel boost ain't peanuts, e.g.�
Dec 28, 2012
Iz Assuming the 60s begin to roll off on February 1st we will also need to know how many 60s were reserved for the first 3000 or so general production. A good percentage of what is posted on this forum is from 85s. However, not everyone who has a reservation posts. My guess is about 1000 of those are 60 kWh. Based on that, I will have 500+ 60s before my vehicle rolls off (not factoring in air suspension).�
Dec 28, 2012
setritt i like to think that i'm paying 25k more for added performance which comes with a nicer interior and 20% more range. makes me think it's a better investment that way - mind games.�
Dec 29, 2012
giants2001 First post on TMC Forums. Enjoying the wealth of information here and appreciate how well its organized. Looking forward to hearing good news for 2013 60kw deliveries. I was given a window of march/april from a Tesla Rep over the phone.
...anxiously awaiting P3831. Garage is ready!�
Dec 29, 2012
Darmok @giants, welcome. Will your S have active air suspension and be a color other than red? If so, as P5265 I sure hope you get your car well before April!�
Dec 29, 2012
giants2001 Blue w/black leather
Obeche matte
Pano
Tech
Active air
Sound�
Dec 30, 2012
mulder1231 I think well over half of general production (P) reservations are 60kWh.
Reason is simple, they're aiming for 3000 deliveries total this quarter (upper-end of the last estimate given). Of those, 1000 are Sigs, that leaves 2000 P reservations to deliver in 2012. They are having to go all the way up to ~P12000 to find 85kWh reservations and ask them to take delivery in 2012.�
Dec 31, 2012
Iz Good point. It would be interesting to know the exact distribution. We will probably have more 60 kWh related postings in the next several months.�
Dec 31, 2012
rlpm They had to go to ~P12000 for perf or 85kWh w/air suspension, and not red paint, correct?
And we don't really know how many people deferred, canceled, or haven't yet finalized. That's a lot of variables.
But it wouldn't surprise me if the distribution of those that have finalized is about 25% perf, 25% 85kWh non-perf, 40% 60kWh, 10% 40kWh.�
Dec 31, 2012
gregincal And you assume the skipped cars are 60s, rather than 40s, red cars or standard suspension.�
Jan 1, 2013
Brian H Elon's initial projection was that 60 sales would dominate, but the early indications suggested the 85s were over half of the total. That was probably 'sampling error', though.�
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