Jan 30, 2016
Nototrader I'm not really going out on a limb here. It is almost February and as far as I know, there have been pretty much zero or close to zero production X cars delivered so far. Looking at the vins from the event, there are hundreds of cars sitting at the factory being checked for issues so Tesla doesn't have a PR nightmare once deliveries start. Remember, a large portion of the Sig cars are hand assembled so it was a little different. So taking into account the amount of time it takes the vehicles to pass final inspection and then get shipped all over the country, there is no way Tesla will come close to delivering 2k model X's by the end of March. I think short term the stock tanks even more. I wouldn't be surprised if they warned about this after the next earnings report.�
Jan 30, 2016
pvogel 60 days is a very long time. If they could deliver 200 Sig's in the last week of December then they could deliver close to 1600 in the next 8 weeks, possibly more. Assuming the QC issues are largely resolved. If we figure VINS 444 through 448 (9?) that were on display last night were completed for the purpose before the invite was sent out, I would venture to say they're getting to amp things up significantly.�
Jan 30, 2016
ankitmishra Nope. Sales no. will be fine in my opinion. By fine I mean at least 1500.�
Jan 30, 2016
Nototrader Considering Tesla had 500 built by the end of the year and only 200 delivered, 1500 in Q1 would be terrible IMO. Now, I'm one of the ones waiting for my car to get shipped and from what I'm seeing, there is definitely a delay for some reason. They just don't hold hundreds of finished cars for no reason.�
Jan 30, 2016
EarlyAdopter Still planning on flipping it?
Model X P90DL for sale�
Jan 30, 2016
pvogel I think they are trying to avoid creating grumbles from Sig holders for delivering production before all ordered Sig's are delivered like happened with the S. After all, they are 1 month away from offering Model 3 Sig reservations...�
Jan 30, 2016
Nototrader If I get 40 above msrp, I will gladly flip it and order another one for myself the next day. I realized last week that my wife will end up stealing the X from me. That being said, she does not need a p90d with lud. I'm close to buying a cpo MS and was kind of hoping to enjoy that for a while before my second X comes in. However, I don't know what the market is for new X's for people who don't want to wait. Having 4 cars and a new MS toy on the way, I'm happy to give mine away for a nice profit or keep it for myself. I feel very lucky to be able to do either. These are not real life problems.�
Jan 31, 2016
aesculus The thread title seems to be wrong. It's about sales but the post and follow on discussions are about delivery.
The elephant in the room is about Model X sales. Do they really want to sell the Model X? At this point I think not. It appears to be next year's car at best. Maybe the plan is just to produce what has been reserved and see how the market responds.
I am not a believer that a backlog can be created instantly, but can be proved wrong.�
Jan 31, 2016
tomas Hint might be in OPs handle.... "trader". According to GAAP, Tesla cannot book revenue (i.e. 'sale') until they deliver. So, from short sighted, quarterly P&L investor perspective, sales = deliveries. However, regarding health of the company and pipeline for X, sales not = deliveries, and would agree it is mis-titled. There was a pretty huge X backlog. That will put cars on the street and eventually in the showroom. Then - probably Summer, we will start to see indication of whether X is a sales winner or not. I predict it will be. There are just so many people in the luxury SUV market, and the X is likely to clobber other brands the same way the S has clobbered all other luxury sedans - though it took 2+ years on the market to get there.�
Jan 31, 2016
eye.surgeon I have yet to even see a MX on a showroom floor. To me, that's telling. I think it's a stretch to even consider the MX as being a production model at this point. Looks to me like some questionable design decisions that exponentially increased build complexity have bitten tesla in the rear big-time. cough falcon doors cough.�
Jan 31, 2016
Martin VanB I recently received an invite to view a Model X at a Tesla store in Toronto Canada. The date I received was March 16, 2016. I would imagine if they are getting ready to show the Model X at a Tesla store they are pretty close to a ramped up delivery schedule. Yet I can not be sure of what delivery plans are. In Canada I can be sure my Model X will be delivered after the USA cars but I am okay with that.�
Jan 31, 2016
CarlK The best and probably correct theory is one last supplier is holding up production but the assembly line is pretty much all ready. Tesla should ba able to turn on real mass production anytime soon as the supplier gets its act together which should not be too hard a thing to do. There is no sign that there is anything that needs to be redesigned or re-engineered to cause more delays.�
Jan 31, 2016
Nototrader yes. You are correct. While I no longer trade myself, I was referring to the public stock definition of a sale. And I'm simply saying that I think the first quarter will be a huge letdown as I don't think Tesla will deliver enough units for the market to be impressed. Long term it may not make a difference. I was just making an observation/educated guess.�
Jan 31, 2016
SMSMD I too received an invite to meet the X. Hoping that the problems will be sorted by the time I get my X, Very anxious about the pricing in CAD. Will be looking out tomorrow after 1PM Tesla's time if any Canadian production model X invites come out. Good luck.�
Jan 31, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney It would be a good idea to merge this thread with the original sale thread to make the user's financial interest in encouraging a view of scarcity clear.�
Jan 31, 2016
Marcos Those doors will sell more new Xs than anything else once the cars are out on the road. If it means delaying for a bit to create the kind of buzz and sensation to sell more later, I'd take the delay any day of the week.
My problem with those doors are that they will attract too much attention at the school drop-off line and at parking lots. So as an introvert, I cringe at that. But it is EXACTLY that attention that will propel not just X sales, but the Tesla brand, into the future.�
Jan 31, 2016
Nototrader That's funny. Trust me, one thread wasn't meant to provoke the other thread. And if my car does sell, I guarantee it won't be a user on this site.�
Jan 31, 2016
CarlK You're right. That's why X in pretty much every press photo we see has its falcon wing doors in the up position. The FWD will definitely help Cayenne, X5/6, Q7 and Range Rover owners to further develop their inferiority complex.�
Jan 31, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I don't think it's funny. I don't trust car dealers.�
Jan 31, 2016
Nototrader First time ever selling a car privately. Usually trade in or lease expiration. I think it's funny that Bonnie sells her highly publicized sig 2 and is applauded. Someone else tries to sell their car and is vilified. Interesting.�
Jan 31, 2016
pvogel Bonnie is selling #2 because she earned a Founders by Referral X and doesn't need two of them. (And she got an offer she would have to be insane to refuse)�
Jan 31, 2016
Nototrader And I'm very happy for her. And if I can sell mine for 40 above and the price I pay is waiting 6 months for another one, I deem that to be a great deal for ME. I'm not sure why I should be vilified for that. Btw, it's good for Tesla, it's good for the new owner who gets what he or she wants, and it's good for original Model X buyers....as maybe the initial new car price drop will take a bit longer. You never know where life takes you and when you need to make unwanted changes.�
Jan 31, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney You're buying your X to sell for profit.
Bonnie got her Sig 2 X and won another X. She chose which X to sell. She also long been a Roadster owner. People don't doubt her sincerity.�
Jan 31, 2016
ankitmishra In my opinion no need to criticize OP because he is going to sell his car. People criticize Tesla all the time. Just because OP has a motive that we know of doesn't disqualify him from discussions.�
Jan 31, 2016
ZachShahan It shocks me how many people don't understand this... Thanks for the concise note.�
Jan 31, 2016
cantdecide I have no doubt that Tesla will ultimately sell many X and it will be a great success ... But they won't deliver many in q1 (I.e. in finance talk... Sales).
I configured my signature X on the first day possible and am still awaiting factory delivery. They probably only delivered 500 in January... and the first 2 weeks of Feb will be finishing off the sigs. Hence q1 might end with 2000 X deliveries which the market likely won't like having ended last year cranking out "hundreds per week".�
Jan 31, 2016
Nototrader Um. Thx. That is all I was trying to say, albeit less eloquently. I guess the fact that I'm a capitalist nullifies my educated opinion.�
Jan 31, 2016
eye.surgeon One of the things that appealed to me about the MS was the simplicity of the design, which I hoped would result in trouble-free ownership (and it has, 13 months zero returns to service center). I don't see gee-whiz lambo doors as respecting that design ethos. It might sell some cars but not to me. But then again I think the ludicrous and insane modes are silly distractions also, so I may be an outlyer.�
Jan 31, 2016
Marcos One of the most common fallacies you'll see anywhere when discussing product is the one that goes like this, "it doesn't appeal to ME, so it won't do so well." No one cares what YOU think, or what *I* think. The market is made up of millions of individuals all making their choices based on their own specific circumstances.
Like I said, as an introvert, I'd prefer something less flashy. Not only do I not want to draw attention to myself, but I also don't want to draw attention to my financial status. That's why I've never driven a car that cost more than $25,000 and I'm approaching 50. But objectively speaking, there's just no doubt that the FWD are a major success. As noted upthread, just about every photo of the car features open FWDs. Every video about it lingers disproportionately over those doors. Existing owners love to talk about those doors, and people they run into want to talk about those doors.
But they're not just cool and functional and attention-grabbing�they are so audacious, that the fact the car is electric is almost an afterthought. It's like, "yeah yeah, electric, but did you see those doors?" And normalizing the idea of having an electric car has to be part of Tesla's mission and that of those of us who are fighting for a cleaner and healthier planet. If we change the conversation from "how do you get from A to B without running out of juice" (thanks Model S!) to "how amazing are those doors?," everyone wins. And it seems we are already headed down that path. So I'm willing to bet that a few years down the road, those doors will be a key defining characteristic of the Tesla brand, so much so, that given the option (which might be the case with the 3), people will aspire for the FWDs as an upgrade.
And you might not like that, and other people who love to tell us they hate those doors might not like that, but in the end, the market will either embrace them or (always a real possibility) they won't. And if your position is held by enough people, so much so that a real market need exists, then either Tesla or someone else will work to fill it.
Now to be clear, I'm not suggesting that your criticism is unwarranted, or that it's bad to say "Tesla, you fill me needs better if you do X". And this particular comment isn't off-putting (you admit that you might be an "outlier"), so I don't mean to be picking on you, because I'm not. But so many others will do the "I hate it so Tesla screwed up!", whether it's regarding these doors, or the big windshield, or the lack of folding middle-row seats (which is my biggest personal gripe), when in reality, none of us know whether Tesla screwed up until we see what X sales look like down the road, not just in fulfilling pre-orders (how many cancelled?), but in new sales as well.
Personally, I think the FWDs are marketing genius, worth more than 1,000 Super Bowl ads. The degree as to how much I or any other individual likes them (or not) is irrelevant in that calculation.�
Jan 31, 2016
ankitmishra @Marcos
Well said.�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 I completely agree, the FWDs will be a major identifier of the Tesla brand, especially since one of the versions of the model 3 will be a smaller CUV.�
Jan 31, 2016
AlMc Excellent, well thought out post. I agree that from a marketing standpoint that the FWDoors are a net positive and I share your views that they are ostentatious. It is all opinion though and we will never know *IF* TM would have been just as well off bringing out the X months ( maybe even a year) earlier without such doors.
*IF* (big IF) we can agree that our (TM and we supporters of the mission statement) goal is to get to the model3/mass market EV,... was it a good use of time/engineering expertise/money to come out with an X with FWDs?
We can all have our opinions about that but it is a question no one can answer as a *fact*. I admit I do not know the answer.�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 It was probably a combination of marketing and Elon not willing to compromise, I think that once Elon has a great idea he sticks with it even if it is 5 times more difficult to accomplish than any of the other ideas. This is what makes him great, his willingness to make something harder so that the end result will be amazing.�
Jan 31, 2016
Todd Burch A little perspective: It took about 6 months for Tesla to deliver 1500 Model S's.�
Jan 31, 2016
nienco2 approximately 50% of adults self identify as introverts and may feel just like you fwiw�
Jan 31, 2016
pvogel There are different levels of introversion. I alternate regularly between borderline extravert and borderline introvert. I have no problem at all engaging with people who have a shared interest with me. Tesla definitely falls into that category
�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 Which research paper are you citing? :tongue:�
Jan 31, 2016
nienco2 Nevermind...everyone likes to draw attention to themselves I guess.�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 It was meant to be more as an informal comment, there's probably not a lot of studies of this topic and if there is they're subjected to a lot of bias I would imagine.�
Jan 31, 2016
Martin VanB I appreciate that we have strayed from the topic. I apologize for this story.
I once purchased an item that I saved up for and was very proud to own. I purposely chose the understated model because I did not want any attention. I realized that I liked when people would talk to me about the item. Yet because it is so understated that would rarely happen. I am trying to say that my belief is people will like the falcon wing doors because they will become an opportunity to be social and engage others in a positive manner. I not one to make chit chat easily but I realize I enjoy talking to people about things I like because the conversation comes easily to me. I believe the unique nature of the Model X Falcon Wing Doors will result in many pleasant owner interactions with non Tesla owners improving the Tesla owner experience and reinforcing ownership satisfaction. For what it's worth I think Model X sales will be appropriate for reasonable expectations.�
Jan 31, 2016
pvogel Meyers and Briggs have quite a bit of data on a very large population. You're not too far off with the 50% thing, but what few realize is how the MB Type Indicator fluctuates significantly over the course of a person's life. And each measure is in fact a spectrum from extreme to opposite extreme and many possibilities in between.�
Jan 31, 2016
nienco2 FWD and the other 50%
Actually there are plenty of studies but my point would be from a strictly marketing perspective. Clearly a lot of people don't want strangers coming up to them in parking lots striking up conversations about their car doors. Or making assumptions about them owning a particularly expensive automobile. So if it were me why would I want to cut my overall market by some substantial percentage on a feature that may not be necessary? FWD as an option I get, but as the only option I don't. Just one mans opinion and just as invalid as any others :smile:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jennagoudreau/2012/01/30/quiet-revolution-of-the-50-percent-introverts-susan-cain/#7a3d78b26ba�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 I meant like peer reviewed papers�
Jan 31, 2016
DougH Exactly, it's car and if someone is willing to pay his asking price so be it.�
Jan 31, 2016
Marcos 50% of the country is still 160 million people, and that's before we go international. And here I am, introvert, getting the X because it is so freakin' cool, and part of that coolness is those freakin' doors ha ha. So even the introvert market is attainable!
The market is limited by cost and production capacity, not Meyer-Briggs scores.
and just because it's not necessary doesn't mean it's not functional or desirable. Very few things in a modern car are necessary.�
Jan 31, 2016
pvogel Reminds me of the frog joke...
Software engineer is walking down the street and frog jumps in front of him and says: "wait! I'm actually a beautiful princess and if you kiss me I'll transform back and I'll do *anything* you want!"
Engineer says "Cool!" Grabs the frog and shoves it in his pocket and keeps walking...
Frog yells out from the pocket, "Wait! Clearly you misunderstood, take me out again"
Guy takes the frog out and the frog says, "All you have to do is kiss me, I'll transform into the most beautiful woman you've ever dreamt of and I'll do *anything* you want. Clothing optional"
Engineer says "Cool!" Puts the frog back in his pocket and keeps going...
Frog screams, jumps onto his shoulder and says "Good grief! I've never met anyone so naive! Kiss me, I'll transform into the most beautiful creature you've ever laid eyes on and we'll make passionate love together!"
Engineer says: "yeah, I got that the first time. Sex is great and everything, but a talking frog? That's **cool**!"�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 Ha that's a good one! But i don't see how that relates to this thread...�
Jan 31, 2016
cantdecide I was expecting the punchline to be that he could sell the frog for a million dollars.�
Jan 31, 2016
Roamer After living with the Falcons for a month I have to say I absolutly love them. There is just something pleasant about having a roof over your head and no door to crawl around.
I had people coming by today to see the car (seems to be a regular Sunday event now days ) and needed to do a quick vacume out so it would look nice for their visit. Even a simple thing like vacuuming the floor is easier with the Falcons. I have a wall mount garage vac with a long hose. Normally I would pull the second car out of the two car garage and then back in and center the car being vacuumed in the two car garage area. Lots of room to open all four doors wide and walk around while doing a vacume job.
Today I just backed the X in next to the Model S. Sitting in the drivers seat I opened every door all at once then walked straight back to the vacume and did the whole car in almost no time at all. No doors in the way at all. Nothing to maneuver around. No problem having a car parked close by. I hung up the vacume hose then closed all five doors from the drivers seat and pulled the car out ready for the visitors.
Until you have lived with the doors you can't even comprehend all the ways they make using the car easier.�
Jan 31, 2016
eloder In ten years, every large automaker will have a CUV/SUV that has everything the MX has, with the exception of the windshield and the FWD. In 3-5 years, you'll see several competitor vehicles that have everything the MX has except the windshield/FWD.
This short-term (investor-only) pain is nothing compared to the long-term dividends obtained by making this tech. The fact that they can automate production and brought the most complex parts in-house means there's no long-term negative consequences.�
Jan 31, 2016
nienco2 Seriously??? Forget it. FWD most important automotive feature since the cigarette lighter.
Color me a doubter but hopefully wrong, we'll know in 12 months.
peace�
Jan 31, 2016
Roamer For the introverts. You will be surprised how seldom people say or do anything when the Falcons fly. People that do notice or stop to comment are typically Tesla nuts and pleasantly harmless.
Even my wife, who started out concerned about drawing attention, has discovered it is not that big of a deal out in the real world.
Most people seem to have no idea what a Tesla is and do not seem to see the car or the doors as a sign of an expensive car. Other than Tesla Fanatics most people just give the car a curious glance and move on. Younger people may shout, "cool doors" as they drive by. That has happened several times.
So don't worry much about unwanted attention. Other than Tesla aficionados most people seem to be clueless about what they are seeing.�
Jan 31, 2016
nienco2 Ok, I really don't care but a little reality check is in order on the innovative marvel that is a FWD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gull-wing_door
Let's just all hope the original premise of this post is wrong :smile:�
Jan 31, 2016
pvogel Even introverts like *cool* stuff�
Jan 31, 2016
CTemp222 yes peer reviewed research papers are generally the most reliable source. However I think introvert or not the FWDs will be a hit.
- - - Updated - - -
Oh yes so true!�
Jan 31, 2016
FlasherZ We just concluded 4 days of showing Model S at the St. Louis Auto Show where we did demonstrations of the summon feature all day... behind the "coolness" factor of the car driving itself was the #2 marvel... the door handles. They get so many "cool!" comments and nothing negative.�
Jan 31, 2016
omarsultan Hey, this still make me smile too...�
Jan 31, 2016
GoTslaGo Good to know. Been watching the vids and reading about the X. Wife gave me the possible thumbs up to get an X. So once we get a chance to see one and drive it, I plan to plunk down some change if we like it.
As for original post, all good things take time. When my DS called me about my wife's MS delivery date options, I told them to take their time and do a good job. Even if Q1 sales are lousy, I predict they will begin to jump once they get some Xs in the showroom.�
Feb 1, 2016
flankspeed8
That still does not make the slow X launch any less disappointing. Tesla is no longer a start-up. They have a market cap of around $30 billion and 4 years of experience to ensure that the X ramp is significantly better then the S. How can they launch a car on September 29th and four months later really no indication of a significant ramp up?�
Feb 1, 2016
forumman83 Flank, when is the last time you built a manufacturing company from scratch, did almost all of the production and design in-house, then produced a game-changing product the likes of which has never before been seen?
Tesla is more interested in doing things right than doing them quickly. I, personally, say take your time. 5 years from now we won't remember the relatively "low" Q4 2015 Model X sales figure.�
Feb 1, 2016
Uncle Paul Easy to drive SUV's are perhaps the hottest items in the market place. Think Tesla has hit it out of the park with this one. Will sell every one they can make.
Same thing with the first Roadster and beautiful 4 door sedan. These products have a desire factor that is off the charts.
Most people that buy Telsas absolutely love them. For most other vehicles, owners consider them to be merely acceptable, but those that own Teslas become evangelical about them.�
Feb 1, 2016
CarlK Absolutely! In this case where you end up at is much more important than how fast you get there. Tesla is trying to go where no man has been before.�
Feb 1, 2016
ecarfan ...and boldly... [emoji6]�
Feb 1, 2016
flankspeed8 WoW! Sensitive much? Didn't realize that I had to build a factory before commenting on how I would expect the X rollout to go smoother then the S rollout over 100,000 cars and $30 billion in market cap later. Explain please how it is possible that the X which was launched on September 29th (So EM could get his options benchmark for product delivery) could 4 months later still be trickling at best off the assembly line? I think this is a fair question.�
Feb 1, 2016
forumman83 I think I answered your question: "Tesla is more interested in doing it right than doing it quickly"
Model X is a never-before-built vehicle. Nothing of it's kind exists. I don't care how well you plan things, there are going to be hiccups when pdouction starts. Tesla is finding out what those hiccups are, correcting them on the fly, and making sure the vehicles are up to par.
I would expect nothing less from any company.�
Feb 1, 2016
CarlK I don't really care long as I will get the car that I could not get from anyone else. Why should you?�
Feb 1, 2016
flankspeed8 why not? I have been an investor in TSLA, on the sidelines right now and the X ramp up certainly has bearing on the SP. I had an X reserved and cancelled when I realized that it would not be suitable for my new house and job, waiting to see what the 3 will have in store before I decide what will replace my Volt. I forget that sometimes it is taboo to question anything that might portray Tesla in a negative light. Read the boards, there have been plenty of people who have been inconvenienced by these delays. Is it wrong to expect a little better execution from Tesla and not blindly accept or make excuses for their lack of communication and execution? I am not the creator of this thread only a commentor which I believe I have a right to do.�
Feb 1, 2016
Uncle Paul Forum is OK for information, but just griping about something that everybody already knows about is not all that productive.
If you are upset about the price of your stock, don't take it out on the company via forums. Not helpful in any way.
Tesla has stated that their intention is to ramp up production as quality allows. They are not tending to just crank out the volumes until the quality is there.
It might just be as simple as a few suppliers failing to produce to standards. Believe it is much harder to actually produce the cars than to click on a keyboard complaining.
No other car manufacturer on the planet has been able to produce a vehicle with the capabilities of an all electric Tesla model X. They are years behind.�
Feb 1, 2016
ecarfan It will be interesting to see how the major auto manufacturers perform when they -- someday -- launch their own serious Tesla competitors with massive battery packs and other new features that they have never dealt with before. I predict they will have issues with ramping up production, but unlike Tesla they will not have tens of thousands of pre-paid customer reservations and be under the kind of pressure Tesla is to build tens of thousands of vehicles as fast as possible but also to a very high quality standard.
A more accurate title to this thread would be "Q1 Model X Production Ramp May Be Less Than Expected". Actual sales are likely to be very good.�
Feb 1, 2016
ohmman I just want to point out here that audacious and ostentatious are very different. And even so, I can agree with both of you - though my feelings on the door align more closely with the definition of ostentatious: characterized by vulgar or pretentious display; designed to impress or attract notice.
I finally got to see and operate them in person today. And incorporating them into a vehicle was extremely audacious (showing a willingness to take surprisingly bold risks), but they still felt pretty ostentatious.�
Feb 1, 2016
eloder There will be plenty (read: every other car out there) electric CUV/SUVs with regular doors coming from all the other manufacturers
I'd never personally get them, but I think they're awesome and I'm glad Tesla shoots for the moon in cars. Don't forget, cars have been stagnant with very little innovation for over a hundred years--imagine if cell phones looked the same as they did even 30 years ago.�
Feb 1, 2016
MrBoylan Thanks for your vocabularic enlightenment.�
Feb 1, 2016
PeterK Just this afternoon I was helping our youngest (kindergarten) out of her car seat in the S in our garage, and thinking how much easier this will be in a couple months when I have my X. And I just vacuumed the S yesterday, so @Roamer's account of quickly and easily vacuuming the X hit home.
As @Tomas and @Marcos and others have stated, I expect those doors will sell a lot of cars once the backlog is run through - S's and 3's as well as X's due to the halo effect. As a shareholder I will be happy. And while I'm not happy with the delays, thanks to the continued success of the S (and I expect the media frenzy over autopilot) they haven't affected Tesla's revenues. And the Gigafactory is the critical path for Model 3 so the X delays likely have minimal impact on the timing of the Model 3 production ramp up.�
Feb 1, 2016
nienco2 Personally it is not the pace of the ramp but rather that it looks nothing like what Elon has described to this point and I know he had indications months ago that that things were not as he was painting them. I just feel deceived and so have decided to cancel my res and go to the end of the line and reevaluate. The X is no longer a must have and additionally my confidence as an investor in the company and its leader sadly is greatly diminished :frown:�
Feb 2, 2016
Merrill Sorry to here you are cancelling, hopefully down the road you might reorder. I will give you my feelings about Tesla and Elon, I think the first thing we have to do is get some perspective. I love what Elon is trying to do and it is a very difficult task, and I have said this before starting up an independent car company that has survived has not been done since Henry Ford. So part of my reason for owning a Tesla is for the future and part because it is an amazing vehicle. As far as promises made by Elon I think it is what he hoped for but there are so many factors that can happen along the way that you can never plan for. This is a very complicated process and I just hope Tesla can survive. There have been many mistakes along the way and the only way for Tesla to continue will be for them to clean up their mistakes. I believe that will happen and sincerely hope for the Model 3 to become a reality. Call me what you want but looking forward to the all electric future.�
Feb 2, 2016
vandacca Actually, I think Chrysler was the last manufacturer to succeed/survive, but I do agree with you that it's a difficult task and I'm not 100% convinced yet that Tesla will survive, but I am fairly confident now that they will.
Elon simply needs to do 2 things: (a) stop making public promises and (b) work with someone to better plan/manage product schedules. I'd love for Tim Cook or someone of his skill/expertise to go work for Tesla. I'm sure it's hard to find someone like that or else Elon would have done it already.�
Feb 2, 2016
KJD Inside EVs is showing model X sales at 370 for Jan 2016.
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
So yes a pretty lousy start for 2016.�
Feb 2, 2016
DJ Frustration Just providing a data point folks. We are Sig X 897 and have yet to get a notification that the vehicle has finished being built. They may be producing X vehicles at the 238/week rate that they ended 2015 on, but they sure as heck aren't delivering near that rate.�
Feb 2, 2016
Merrill Chrysler was originally Maxwell Motor Company started in 1904 and the first Model T was built in 1908. But I agree with you and let's hope it happens.�
Feb 2, 2016
CTemp222 They are most likely holding a lot of cars back to wait for parts to arrive.�
Feb 2, 2016
aesculus He did say that the Model X was a car that probably should never have been made so I think he did learn something. But that quirkiness is one of the draws of the car for me. It might be the next Edsel but I will like owning it none the less (providing it does not go wheels up on me in the future).�
Feb 2, 2016
eloder Perspective: that puts the Model X as one of the higher-selling EV models in the US, still, for this last month�
Feb 2, 2016
CarlK Don't forget Tesla is doing a lot things that it has not, or for that matter no one has ever, done before. There is nowhere else to learn until you start to do it yourself. Most auto companies do incremental improvements which is much easier to do and to schedule. When they do a brand new model they usually won't give you a firm schedule but people are not pushing for one either. Tesal does not have that luxury because this is the only one or few model they'll make. Apple may not do any better if its life depends on making a successful new car fast.�
Feb 2, 2016
AlMc I totally agree with your post. problem: Timelines: I do not believe that any of us have the power to influence them. EM/TM gave expected reveal/start of delivery dates, they delayed those dates on several occasions totalling about two years. IF we give them a 'pass' on those missed deadlines based on the complexity of the new model they were producing I believe it is fair to expect that during those two years they would bring out a product that does not now have the delays/retrofits/waiting for suppliers to ramp that appears to be happening.
So, do we give them a pass on the delays or the QC and ramp issues they are experiencing or both?�
Feb 2, 2016
Merrill No pass, but the most important issue is not you or me but the success or failure of the company. Down the road they will have to be more proactive to us the customer or they will not survive, someone who pays $35,000 for a car might not be as patient as we are.�
Feb 2, 2016
AlMc Agreed. Starts with going back to meeting/exceeding expectations. Both from EM at ER/CC guidance to providing the 'exceptional delivery experience' that EM proclaims is paramount.�
Feb 2, 2016
CarlK I would not give them a pass on quality of the car but I would give them as much leeway as needed for delivery schedule. I probably would not do this for other companies but knowing how Elon operates I can't believe he's doing anything other than to get quality cars to us as fast as humanly, or even more, possible.�
Feb 2, 2016
ronmerkord
I think the real thing to worry about is that the Inside EVs article also shows that Model S sales for January were only 850. I already knew that Model X sales were down, since we don't have our Sig X #484 yet, but that is quite a hit for Model S sales, even when you take into account the time they were closed down.
Ron
Sig X VIN #484�
Feb 2, 2016
ankitmishra Tesla is doing fine. Model X is one of the most innovative cars that is available as of now. The delay of Model X happened when Tesla was pretty young. It had a lot of unforeseen problems to deal with. I disagree with opinion of people expressing their fear over the future of Tesla due to Model X delay. Just like Model S has become an extraordinary product for Tesla selling in more and more numbers, X will do the same. In one year from now, the majority of voices will be of happy owners.�
Feb 2, 2016
PeterK I was concerned when I first saw that number but you have to figure in the first week vacation shutdown and the fact that early in the quarter production is usually prioritized for overseas markets due to shipping time.�
Feb 2, 2016
Phil Seastrand Going from ~200 to 370 in one month is a pretty good ramp, if they can keep it going.�
Feb 2, 2016
WestCoastP85D Morgan Stanley said 15,000 - 18,000 X's projected for all of FY16. That doesn't even clear the current order backlog. At that rate, H2/2016 order deliveries would be well into 2017.
They are just analysts....�
Feb 2, 2016
vandacca I think the lousy sales is being reflected in the stock market today. TSLA is taking quite the hit. Currently down over 8%.�
Feb 2, 2016
Macgaver They were able to do +250/Week at the end of december. It cannot be only 300 deliveries in january.
I stick to my initial projection :
�
Feb 2, 2016
cantdecide If there were 2000 produced, why are so many SIG's configured in September still in production, not even on a truck to the delivery center?�
Feb 2, 2016
WestCoastP85D Sales aren't slow... they are "production constrained." ;-) This is one complex car. Have you seen the doors up close?
�
Feb 2, 2016
cantdecide Yes I have. Sales equal production (this thread is finance language) they have a lot of orders, I just doubt that 2000 have finished the factory production.�
Feb 2, 2016
Macgaver cantdecide:
It's a good point. We see a lot of X popping everywhere in many DC, but it's strange that some Sig configured in last September are not yet delivered. No clue !
EDIT: But keep in mind my table indicate 800 delivered (the difference between delivered and build is all the MX travelling or been queued at DC)�
Feb 2, 2016
techmaven We can't assume even parts availability on all configurations. I do hope that whatever parts are missing, they can build the rest of the car or other orders and set aside partially built cars and come back to finish them up, especially if it's things like 2nd row seat configurations.�
Feb 2, 2016
eloder
I think a lot of people are pegging it at 250/week produced at the end of December. That doesn't necessarily mean they're being delivered (QC checks, fixing now-known issues, etc.).
In any case, once they're done with whatever backlog is causing issues, then they can ramp up deliveries rather quickly even if production is still constrained.�
Feb 2, 2016
Canuck Excellent post. Really the FWD are the equivalent of the Model S door handles on steroids. I could do without the door handles on my Model S retracting (more of a hassle than anything) but they sure attract attention (another thing I like to avoid).�
Feb 2, 2016
jfranks I saw three new X's at the Austin, TX service center this morning. They're getting them out here.�
Feb 2, 2016
CTemp222 Were they production or signature?�
Feb 2, 2016
pvogel If you total the Model S and Model X you are at 1220 which makes Tesla still the #1 selling EV and 120 more cars delivered in Jan 2016 than in Jan 2015, not bad given they are bringing a whole new model up on the line which has to cause some level of disruption.
Interesting, the Model X is the #3 selling EV, behind the Volt and the S. And why the Volt counts as an EV is beyond me...
Peter+�
Feb 2, 2016
ankitmishra Woo hoo!! Straight in the top three.�
Feb 2, 2016
sub Tesla has made the rest of the world wait in 4Q15 while trying to meet the yearly guidance. They focused on US deliveries and at the end California deliveries. They now need to catch up on the world backlog and make the U.S. Wait, they will get back to the U.S. Later in the qtr. deliveries (regional) does not equal production or sales.�
Feb 2, 2016
dwebb66 I was not aware that the 'rest of the world' had been invited to configure, until they have configured their cars, Tesla can not queue then up and ship them.�
Feb 2, 2016
eloder They did indeed put the rest of the world into a queue for the Model S in Q4. Why else would the wait for a new S be a few weeks in the US, and three months overseas?�
Feb 2, 2016
Judge Advocate It is the opinion of this poster that the Model X is ugly and is basically an obese Model S. Ugh!
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
Not a head turner for sure, like my Model S is.�
Feb 2, 2016
ohmman Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. I'm fine with your first two sentences - the last is yet to be determined as it's not an opinion.�
Feb 3, 2016
PeterK I think its looks need to be compared to its vehicle type and competition. Of course the S is slimmer and sleeker, and for that matter the Roadster is sportier. But for an SUV/CUV, and compared to other SUV/CUVs, it is quite smooth and sleek, and even a little sporty. I love my S but will also love my X.�
Feb 3, 2016
ROBwithab "The market" is simply the sum of all the individual personal opinions. If many many people have expressed a similar opinion, we can extrapolate, with some degree of accuracy, as to what "the market" wants. We can also take educate guesses as to what buyers might prefer by learning from history.
However, my solution is much simpler. Simply option the doors, and let people decide for themselves. And do the same for the windscreen, seats and air filter.
Price the options realistically to cover the real costs, put the information on the website, and let customers configure the vehicle that best suits their needs and budget (you know, like they do on the Tesla website for that hugely popular sedan of theirs... ). It's a huge part of the Tesla customer experience, that ability to customise the vehicle.
If someone thinks the FW doors are really cool and is prepared to pay extra for the privilege of having them, excellent.
If someone prefers "regular" doors and can save a few hundred bucks (and probably a few months in the delivery queue), also excellent.
Why not let the customers decide for themselves?�
Feb 3, 2016
pvogel Because the doors drive a whole set of design choices that would have to be done completely differently for traditional doors. If you don't want Falcon wing doors, move on and buy a different car. Model S or whatever you want. No one is holding a gun to your head and telling you to buy a Model X.�
Feb 3, 2016
PeterK Because the doors and windscreen are a fundamental part of the design, and the seats fit with that. The air filter is already an option.
What you're describing is a completely different car which would take additional time, resources and complexity to produce, and if sold for a lower price would generate lower profits. All of which would not help drive forward and fund the Model 3.�
Feb 3, 2016
CarlK You hit the nail right on the head. Just like no one would compare the S to a Ferrari why would one wants to compare an SUV to a sports sedan.
You are absolutely right. That's why we have hundreds of different models on the market. And the aftermarket too if that's not enough.�
Feb 3, 2016
ecarfan Doing as you describe would be extremely expensive for Tesla and require two very different body and structural designs. There would be nothing "simple" about it and the X would be even more expensive than it is now.
The X apparently is not the car for you. That's fine. No one car is suitable for all buyers, obviously.�
Feb 3, 2016
aesculus I would tend to agree. Having said that someone could come out of left field and blow the doors off with a new design that is both functional and elegant. It would not be me.
The Model S, except the fake grill, is a gorgeous car. The Model X is a pleasant looking car. Nothing wrong with that. I bought it more for its features and use than looks. I would have bought the Model S but it just would not fit my lifestyle.�
Feb 3, 2016
Marcos History is a poor guide when looking at anything Tesla is doing. History told us electric cars were slow, ugly, and unpopular. So much for history...
As others have pointed out, what you want is an entirely different car, with a completely different design, with all the attendant complexities and difficulties that entails. That wouldn't make Tesla more efficient, it would make it LESS efficient by an exponential factor. However, it appears you are in luck, because a lower-cost model is on the horizon with both with and without FWDs! Whether that is two variants of the 3, or a 3 and Y, fact is, Tesla is working on producing more choice in their lineup.
But for now, it has two cars, both of which are supply constrained, so for now, the market has spoken and Tesla is the winner. All that's left is for it to figure out how to most efficiently meet that demand, no small feat as we're seeing.�
Feb 3, 2016
larmor FWIW, can't find any more inventory MS with third row (thanks Hank at ev-cpo.com). So I'm shopping for a performance MS with third row & AP or... just order an MX without performance. Reported MX sales may be lousy in q1, but from a consumer standpoint, can't wait to see it in showroom. Seeing is believing when getting a family car....�
Feb 3, 2016
CTemp222 I would wait to see one in person before ordering just to be safe. But i'm sure the Model X will fit your needs, you'll just have to wait longer.�
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