Thứ Sáu, 27 tháng 1, 2017

Model 3 reveal affect on other luxury car sales part 1

  • Apr 12, 2016
    RubberToe
    I thought I would start another thread similar to my Model S and Model X sales trackers. But this time to see what affect the announcement of the Model 3 reveal, and the reveal itself had on the sales of comparable luxury cars. Not sure exactly when they announced that the reveal would be on 3-31-16, so I'll start out by tracking 2016 sales versus 2015 sales. People knew the reveal was coming, but didn't yet know the specifics. What we see below so far might be categorized as the "Coming of the Model 3" affect. There are of course other reasons for the fluctuations, I'm just presenting the numbers and you all can draw your own conclusions.

    Starting with the April sales numbers, we should start seeing the first indication of people stopping purchases based on what they found out about the Model 3. And there are certainly a lot of people planning on buying a Model 3, so you would expect sales of other manufacturers comparable models to decrease to some degree.

    [?IMG]
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  • Apr 12, 2016
    EXOTIC1
    The model 3 realease will hurt the 50k and under cars potentially however, the guys/gals who are spending 75k plus aren't buying the model 3 over another brand car. MS will take away some of those sales.:)
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  • Apr 12, 2016
    CyberKnife
    I'm not in the market for a luxury car. There is no competition between the model 3 and another $35k car that I know out there for what you get. I think the model 3 may take away sales from cars in the high $20ks because factoring in gas cost savings and the potential of EV tax credit the model 3 can reach to buyers in the high 20ks potentially.
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  • Apr 12, 2016
    yesup
    I very much doubt people would hold off buying cars for 2 years.
    And you can't say any drop in sales is due to Model 3 - it is probably more related to economic climate.

    The only way you can conclude that Model 3 is taking sales away from other brand is to wait for sales numbers in 2018 and 2019.
    A drop is sales in other brands in association of the rise in sales in Tesla would give you stronger evidence of Model 3 effect.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    FlatSix911
  • Apr 13, 2016
    AUSinator
    Nice work Flatsix. Let's say your table right that would be the slow end of ICE for sure.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    physicsfita
    At least at the store I was line up at, I didn't see very many (any?) of the vehicles on your list. It seemed that most of the people parked at the Cleveland, OH store were driving cars similar to a Honda Accord. There were also a fair number of Priuses and a couple of Volts. One LEAF that I saw. (Also a Mini.) I don't know if it's possible to project what may happen to those cars or not in a statistically meaningful way.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    ElectricTundra
    Keep in mind that people lined up at stores accounted for only about 25% of reservations. Is there a possibility that someone who currently drives a mid-luxury is less likely to have stood in line and reserved online instead?

    I think the Model 3 will do similar to the Model S. It will attract people in it's closest segment (mid-luxury) as well as people in less costly segments who normally would not pay that much for a car but will for a Tesla.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    Trips
    I am holding off for 2+ years on getting a Lexus IS/ES. I currently have a 2011 IS 350.

    The graph needs to have the Lexus IS and BMW 3 series on the graph and look at multiple years. 1 year or month will not show any trends.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    RubberToe
    I will add these to the spreadsheet next month. Not sure about going back too far.

    RT
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    Drivin
    Using your logic, that means that the announcement of the 3 caused more people to want to buy a Q50 or XF.
    Well, that makes just as much sense.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    omgwtfbyobbq
    Well, I'll wait for a lot longer than 2 years, but my wife, who seems to want a new car every five year, would wait an extra few for a Model 3 if need be.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    James Anders
    Model 3 isn't a luxury car.
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  • Apr 18, 2016
    RubberToe
    Went ahead and added the Lexus IS and BMW 3-series as requested:

    [?IMG]
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  • Apr 18, 2016
    CaptainKirk
    Great start with your list! It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the numbers change once Model 3 deliveries start. One thing to keep in mind is that is that the broader appeal of Model 3 means you will have people stretching to go upmarket as well as downmarket from other marques. For example, on the BMW Canada website, the 2 Series Coupe starts at $36200, the 3 series at $39990, and the 4 Series at $49450. I think it's perfectly reasonable for a shopper to cross shop all of these with Model 3. Once the trim levels are announced for Model 3, we can then make a true comparison between all the cars. For Mercedes, I would expect the CLA class also to be cross shopped with Model 3. Sure, the Model 3 may cost more up front, but the Total Cost of Ownership should make those two comparable.

    Savvy shoppers will have done some basic math to calculate the cost of ownership, and it would be reasonable that these folks are also those who would wait 2+ years for their car. Those who truly cannot wait that time can get in line once Model 3 starts deliveries, but patience is a virtue.
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  • Apr 18, 2016
    Luke42
    I'm not in the market for a luxury car. I don't see what the big deal is about BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, et al -- it seems like you're just paying extra for the same old technology that's under the hood of every other car. My experiences with BMWs in particular has been that they're just cars.

    The Model 3 is competing with the Chevy Bolt/Volt, the Leaf 2.0, and Prii of every age for a slot in my driveway.

    Ive nevwr seriously considered owning a 3-series or an A4. I'm just not a luxury car kind of guy. Don't get me wrong, I like to be comfortable, but Fords and Toyotas are plenty comfortable for me. The things I consider to be luxury features (leather seats, a sunroof, nice-looking interior) are merely nice-to-haves, and are available in Fords and Toyotas.

    Why am I interested in the Model 3?

    The Model 3 is the most serious EV available, and it actually had interesting technology under the hood. Oh, and Tesla stepped up to take my money first. Any luxury features they put in my cat will be appreciated, but they'll just be a pleasant side effect of the new and interesting technology I'm really after.

    I don't know what proportion of the reservation holders people like me are, but I'd be reluctant to assume too much about who's going to loose sales to Tesla.
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    RubberToe
    A couple additions. Added the Prius and the Plugin Prius. While the plug in version (Prius Prime) won't be out for a while, I suspect that like Luke42 mentions, the Model 3 may start eating into regular Prius sales. While Prius sales have been trending way down recently anyway, the upcoming release of the Model 3 isn't going to help Toyota out by any means. The Prius demise and the Mirai debacle are only going to show how badly Toyota dropped the ball WRT any non-ICE drivetrain.

    [?IMG]
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    AZ Desert Driver
    In my case, I special ordered a MB-E for European delivery. It was ordered Christmas to be picked up May 2016, and it would be the first release of a 2017 model. Expensive, fully loaded with "the best" auto driving capabilities.

    I canceled that order, placed my Model 3 order...and bought a Accord for the next two-three years.

    Figured Model 3 would have same, or better features as MB. Price is about half - but price did not dictate the decision...Quality did.
    Accord is a nice car...quite functional. New car has all those fuzzy grins. But no where near the excitement of the M3.
    Not sure how these mindsets feed into your table.
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    StraightDave
    If you are not in the market for a luxury car then why are you buying an M3? I have a bridge to sell you if you think you are getting the M3 for $35k.

    And people in the luxury car market probably don't give a crap about the environment and gas prices don't matter either.
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    dhanson865
    I expect to get a model 3 for under $30,000 after credits/rebates, you can keep your bridge.
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    RubberToe
    I bought my 2013 Prius when it came off the 3 year lease in January. I already had my Soul EV for 14 months. Sold the Prius to my cousin. Would never even consider a non-BEV for a car again, ever. I can't be the only one who has this view.
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    e-fit
    These are really interesting numbers ( I love spreadsheets).
    Is there an easy figure you can include to show total market figures ? I.e all cars not by segments, just to compare the new cars market as a whole to eliminte the idea that's it's Telsa knocking down these figures. for all Iknow everyone is going out and buying honda Fits instead of 7 series, but the overall volume of sales units is the same, if not value ;-)

    The reason... one thinkg I've been thinking - are most of those pre-orders by people who already have an elecrtic drive train of some sort? Either Hybrid, PHEV or a full EV (or i3 REX in my case). Otherwise why would you slap $��1000 down on a car you've never driven. Maybe they are people that test drove a Model S at some point? I can see sales of other EVs taking a bashing as for a few thousand $/�/� more you get a vehicle with much more usefulness than somethign with sub 100 mile EV range.

    For the UK at least there's another wave of pre-orders due - once the configurators are up, final pricing is known and the lease companys can offer it. 50% of all new car sales in the UK are company car drivers on fleet leases. My brother is an example of probably half a dozen people I've talked to that want to get on the Telsa reservation list but can't until it's in their company's published car list for thier pay grade. Maybe not until later 2018 till he can even order :( He'll miss out big time if his current A4 Avant has to go back in early 2018 and he can't get on the M3 list.
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    FlatSix911
  • Apr 24, 2016
    dhanson865
    Pretty much only because Tesla is off to a record start. Take out the spike in Model S deliveries and March is flat or down for the rest of the pack.

    Tesla Model S is up 62% aka 162%, but significant is that it is the highest selling on the list.
    Tesla Model X is a new entry but also a bigger seller than everything but the Model S.

    Volt 2016 Mar vs 2015 Mar is triple aka 300%, very bullish vs prior year.
    Fusion Energi is up 50% aka 150%, bullish vs prior year.


    Cmax Energi is down 15% aka 85% of prior year, slight but noticeable drop.
    Leaf 2016 Mar vs 2015 Mar is down 33% aka 66%, noticeably down vs prior year.
    BMW i3 is down 66% aka 33% of prior year sales, very noticeably down vs prior year.
    Fiat 500e is down 73% aka 27% of prior year sales, very noticeably down vs prior year.

    everything else is too low a volume to matter.

    [?IMG]
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  • Apr 24, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Let's see the April data ... and then extrapolate the trend.
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  • Apr 25, 2016
    Luke42
    I'm someone who wouldn't normally pay this much for a car but will pay this much for a Tesla.

    It's not because I can't afford a more expensive car (I made 6 figures last year, and live in a college town in the Midwest with a modest cost of living), it's just that I'm inclined to shop for value. There's a lot more value on the table in used cars between $5k-$20k than there is in new $35k-$150k cars. There are some good new cars between $15k-$25k, too.

    Why the Model 3, then? I loved driving the EVs I've test driven. The Model 3 full of technology I want, which just isn't available on the used market. It's capabilities match my lifestyle without compromise (except for the lack of a hatchback). I'll pay double what I would for another car, since someone is *finally* building a car I really want, rather than just making minor refinements changes to the same old thing. And I really like getting an express ticket to the future, too. :)
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  • Apr 25, 2016
    e-fit
    Hmmn interesting.. i3 is the biggest hit... why would you spend 30k on a sub 100 mile range EV when next year you can get 200 miles. Cheaper Leaf is isolated somewhat. I'm looking forward to seeing the regional distribution of those 400k pre orders Telsa have, and I'd be quite happy if they send me a survey to answer what my current salary is, what I'm driving currently and what I normally spend on a car and whether that's new - as long as I get to see the summarised results. If I can find the time I might do one myself on SurveyMonkey. Prior to the i3 - I used to buy 1-3 years old cars still with manufactururers warrenty and keep them till 5-7 years old. Around �10-15k. LOL. Seems this EV bug is like some people get with V8s.
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  • Apr 25, 2016
    Luke42
    I'm in!

    I'd love to know more about my fellow Model 3 enthusiasts, and I'm willing to trade like information for it. :)

    I suspect it's a far wider demographic than currently frequents the Tesla scene.

    I'll start:
    The most I've ever spent on a car is $21k, and I live in a college town in downstate Illinois. We made low 6 figures last year, and we probably will again this year.
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  • May 4, 2016
    RubberToe
    April numbers are in:

    [?IMG]
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  • May 4, 2016
    Big-T
    The Infiniti is a surprise to me, I"m up in Seattle and that's a pretty rare car to see on the roads. I guess that just goes to show how perspectives can be skewed by your geographic location :)
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  • May 4, 2016
    HanSolo
    Bingo.

    The first rule of doing any type of analysis is that correlation NEVER implies causation. Some experts have been predicting for a short while now that the luxury car market was going to soften. If anything, the huge demand we are seeing for luxury pickup trucks could be dinging the luxury car market more than the M3 is. Pickup trucks these days offer an impressive value for people who once would have never considered one. The amount of luxury you can get is amazing for the price point.
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  • May 4, 2016
    HanSolo
    Probably like seeing a Subaru in Texas(Ford Truck country).
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  • May 4, 2016
    geoffreak
    Waves from my Texas Subaru. I see more Model Ses than I do other Legacys here in DFW. Most of the Subarus I see around here are Outbacks and Foresters. Subarus are actually surprisingly common here in Texas, just not as common as places like Colorado.
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  • May 4, 2016
    Bangor Bob
    Plot against luxury CUV's though, the growth there likely more than makes up for the drop in cars...
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  • May 5, 2016
    Drivin
    So the model 3 reveal resulted in more sales of the Mercedes, Prius, bmw and Hyundai in April.
    Well that makes sense.
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  • May 5, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Here are the April EV sales numbers for the US Market: Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
    Looks like the Model S facelift and 1Q16 sales push really impacted the April numbers for Tesla.

    upload_2016-5-5_0-53-9.png
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  • May 5, 2016
    RubberToe
    Flat,
    The interesting thing is that another site (motorintelligence) that tracks all sales by manufacturer shows Tesla having 2,900 in April, versus the above showing 1,650. Thats quite a difference, as both track U.S. sales. As discussed more in the investors thread, the cars Tesla builds in the early part of the quarter are shipped out so as to be delivered by the end of the quarter. The cars built later in the quarter are for the U.S. market which get delivered sooner, hence the U.S. sales rise at the end of each quarter.

    I would also note that the Prius dropped out of the top 20 cars as of this year. In 2015 it was the 20th best selling car in the U.S. I suspect a further drop, time will tell. I think a lot of the Prius faithful were standing in a long line on March 31st.

    RT
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  • May 5, 2016
    Luke42
    Twelve years of Prius ownership qualifies my wife and I as "Prius faithful".

    Don't get me wrong, the Prius is a fantastic car to own -- and I'm a big fan. But a car that will make the Prius obsolete is really exciting!

    P.S. I ordered during the reveal. I was too busy with my startup to make the trip to Chicago to stand in line...!
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  • May 5, 2016
    Mark C
    Another Prius owner here, 2010 base model. Didn't reserve on 3/31, waited patiently to have an opportunity to discuss it with the wife in a reasonable manner {I was too hyped to discuss it sooner!}. Reserved and received my confirmation on 4/5 @ 8:55 CST. As I live in Alabama and will not be getting many options, I don't expect to be too early on the delivery list. I would like a piece of the tax credit though because the base price on a new 3 will be ~ 35% more money than I've ever spent on a new car or truck.
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  • Jun 4, 2016
    RubberToe
    May numbers are now in:

    [?IMG]

    May sales in general were down, but SUV's seemed to fare better. Those numbers can be seen in the Model X comparison sheet. Prius sales of the new model are down 21% in May from a year ago.
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  • Jun 4, 2016
    Chopr147
    In 2008 I spent 60k on a Yukon XL, gas was $4.25 a gallon. As I signed the papers I was wondering what the hell am I doing? I still have the car and I love it. Who would have thought gas would be under $2 ever again? But the kids are getting older, no longer need the big rig and now I don't even think twice about paying 50k or more on my Model3. I will wait but that MS looks better every day :) I am surprised anyone would buy ANY of the other EV's with the Model 3 on the way.
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  • Jun 4, 2016
    EinSV
    This is very interesting -- thanks for posting!

    You may want to consider adding the Audi A4 and Mercedes C class to the chart since they are in roughly the same price range as the Model 3.
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  • Jun 4, 2016
    HanSolo
    Probably because the new Prius is so damn ugly. Just when you could not think a car could look even more outrageous, Toyota out does themselves to cater to the small crowd who wants everyone to know how environmentally conscious they are. Model 3 owners will be people who are mostly environmentally conscious, but also take pride in how their car looks and thus represents them.
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  • Jun 4, 2016
    ZBB
    I was about to post about how the new Prius looks. Its really horrible -- and the rear doesn't even match the front (look at it from the side and it looks disjointed).

    I still think its a bit too early to see if Model 3 orders are impacting current sales. With 2-3 years before most of the pre-orders will be delivered, people that need a car now will still get one now. So other factors are impacting sales.

    Is it possible to summarize a bit more broadly -- perhaps by brand and base MSRP bucket -- for example for each brand, lump their cars as "MSRP >30k", "MSRP 30-45k", "MSRP 45k+" -- so BMW might only be in the 2 higher buckets and Honda in the lower 2. I think that would normalize for the shift from cars to CUVs for example and could show that just looking at car sales doesn't mean that the M3 is impacting them yet...
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  • Jun 4, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Here are the current US EV sales for 2016. Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
    Interesting to note the strong sales for the new GM Volt and Ford Fusion, at number 2 & 3 on the list.
    The Model S and X are still production constrained by batteries until the new Gigafactory comes on line.

    upload_2016-6-4_10-44-21.png
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  • Jun 11, 2016
    RubberToe
    Updated to include the April BMW 3-Series. Ouch...

    [?IMG]
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  • Jun 11, 2016
    Chopr147
    Ouch is right! I am one of those customers myself. I was seriously looking into getting the 535i before the M3 reveal. So I put down my reservation and forgot all about the BMW. Sure it's a little smaller than the 5 series but i'm expecting so much better!
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  • Jun 11, 2016
    alseTrick
    Ouch? Look at the Prius Plug-In. It's sales are practically 0%!
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    NicoV
    That was the car I thought it would be the next car after my 2010 Prius. Untill I started to look at Tesla 3 years ago. Happy owner of a Model S since march. Most likely my wife and I will never buy anything else than a Tesla again.
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    Jayc
    Yes this is what happens when companies become so big that they start getting disconnected with their customers and especially their fan base. There were warnings in Toyota forums that especially the styling direction they were heading towards was incorrect but they seem to be increasingly dependent upon incorrect marketing research that is fundamentally flawed. One thing I have to commend though is they have got reliability and production quality spot on that hardly anything goes wrong and in my case zero issues in 7 years.
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    NicoV
    I actually waited untill the next gen Prius was offically announced to finalize the Model S buying decision. I couldn't believe they went with the ugly Mirai styling (it seems they introduce all of their new models with this styling). My main concern with the Model S was that it might be less reliable than my Prius. So far, 0 problems. Waiting patiently to configure my wife's Model 3. (Actually not so patiently, my wife informed me how much she hates going to that stinking gas station to fill up the Prius, and btw, the Prius seems to be broken now because nothing happens when she presses to gas pedal).
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    ZsoZso
    I'm in similar situation to CyberKnife: not in the market for luxury vehicles. I would sooner consider buying your bridge, then buying a Mercedes / BMW / Audi. An yet I have bought a Model S in 2014 and put down reservation for the Model 3 on March.31st. I also own a tiny weird-mobile EV you can see on my avatar and will probably lease a Chevy Bolt until my Model 3 arrives. Price and luxury are two different properties and one does not imply the other.
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    llngoc
    I don't think the statement is true. There is the same proportion of people in all segments of the car market who cares a lot about the environment. (May be not the gas price, but buying hybrids or PEVs for gas price is likely be always the wrong reason IMHO)

    And as Elon Musk said before, you should not be buying a Tesla because it is an EV. The only reason to get a Tesla because it is one of the best cars out there. And I believe the Model 3 will be one of the best sub-50k entry luxury car out there. If I can get a Model 3 with ludicrous mode for under 50k, it will definitely hurt the BMW M3, AMG C63, Audi RS4 markets. And a base Model 3 at $40k will definitely gives BMW 3, MBZ C class and Audi A4 a big headache.
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    llngoc
    Same exact words from my wife: "I will never drive anything other than a Tesla." And she is as excited about our incoming Model X and the Model 3 reveal as getting a new handbag. ;) That says a lot...
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    omgwtfbyobbq
  • Jun 12, 2016
    RubberToe
    The next generation plug in Prius is called the Prius Prime. Rolling out later this year, price has yet to be announced. That's why I still have it in the table. If you head over to the priuschat forum, one of the more active threads is called something like "Is the Prius Prime dead on arrival"? Lots of discussion of the Model 3 in that thread. Lots of Prius faithful still looking forward to the new PiP too. But many, rightfully so, scratch their heads about Toyota selling a car with only 31 miles electric range.

    RT
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    182RG
    You're still missing the C series MB, Audi A4, BMW 4 series, Cadillac ATS, Volvo S60/S80
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  • Jun 12, 2016
    omgwtfbyobbq
    I don't see anything wrong with including a car that isn't being produced, but using the same reasoning you could include Model 3 sales at 0 per month up until launch. ;)

    In terms of the Prime, 31 miles of EV range isn't too bad, but having to drop a seat to make sure the chassis is rated for that much weight is annoying IMO. I was hoping Toyota could beef up the new platform (TNGA) and maybe make the next gen plug-in a little bigger, ala the Prius V. I guess the gen 3 will continue to be the only 5-seat ~50mpg mid-size PHEV hatchback around for a few more years.

    Granted, if Tesla can deliver with the 3, both in terms of specs and reliability, they'll leap-frog Toyota and everyone else, but whether they can do that remains to be seen. In certain situations, I can see why someone would be reluctant to go with a 3. It's a shame Toyota blew off EVs after they had come so far, but also an opportunity for Tesla.
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  • Jun 18, 2016
    RubberToe
    Added 6 additional cars based on input provided above, they are in rows 2-7. The Mercedes C-Class is very appropriate, it is the highest selling Mercedes. The Audi A4 and BMW 4 Series are the second best sellers of Audi and BMW. Just FYI for those interested: on the goodcarbadcar website, you can download a spreadsheet of the monthly sales that has everything in it. Almost 500 lines per month. Very good source of info for between $3 and $5.

    9 of 11 cars that have sold over 14,000 total vehicles in 2016 have sales down YOY. Not sure why BMW sales are down so much.

    [?IMG]
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  • Jun 18, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Excellent data ... it appears that the near-luxury car market is depressed so far this year.
    The decrease may be due to the Model 3 introduction that targets this market share :cool:

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  • Jun 18, 2016
    NicoV
    It would be interesting to look at cars cheaper than 35k if there is the same downtrend.
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  • Jun 18, 2016
    RubberToe
    Not so much, they are holding pretty steady. The big takeaway from 2016 versus 2015 so far is that car sales are down, while truck sales are up. Total sales are up 1.2% overall. My guess is that cheap gas is the primary contributor.

    RT
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  • Jun 20, 2016
    HanSolo
    Not just that gas is cheaper, but I think people are starting to see trucks as a good value for certain leisure activities. They are very utilitarian and when properly equipped, they really pack a lot of luxury. A $70k F150 might seem outrageous until you realize just how much stuff you can get in it.
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  • Jul 4, 2016
    RubberToe
    June numbers are in. Let there be Red in honor of the National Holiday, and Blue for all manufacturers competing against the Model 3 ;)

    [?IMG]
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  • Jul 4, 2016
    Langmuir
    I was looking a bit into European sales and it is difficult to see a trend other than a more significant fall for BMW 3/4. Of course part of it due to the fact that BMW/Merc/Audi sell more in Europe (monthly sales of these models are roughly double than in the US) and it is more difficult to spot a drop. Also, for a long time it was said that model 3 cars will be delivered later to Europe...

    P.S. a lot of models in the table are really at the end of their "natural" life, such as BMW 5, MB E-class, Audi A4, both Volvos...
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  • Jul 4, 2016
    neroden
    The Audi A4 seems to have a lot of mindshare and brand value around here. I can't imagine why -- they have a horrible repair record, thin paint, a crowded interior... but anyway, it's interesting to see that their sales are still holding up. I wonder when Model 3 will start cutting into their sales; probably not until it's actually available.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    flamingoezz
    Tesla is going to dig into the lower-end luxury sedan market probably through 2019 if other brands adapt slowly. I would expect that when BMW, Volvo, etc get their act together and build competing electric cars WITH INCENTIVES, that'll close any gap in battery saving Tesla is able to offer.

    The question is, by the time these new electric players lose their incentives, will their infrastructure and battery technology allow them to compete?
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    ummgood
    I really think we also need to include some small crossovers in this list to get a true picture. A lot of manufacturers are really going that route to scoop up the small luxury sedan market. I see a ton of Lexus NX and RX running around here. Plus the infiniti QX50, BMW X3 and X1, Audi Q3 and Q5 etc... I wonder if that is where part of the sales decline is going. It would be interesting to see them in the tables because honestly those are the cars that are competing with the luxury sedans in the US.
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  • Aug 4, 2016
    RubberToe
    July numbers are in, the Hyundai Genesis is the latest entrant into the Red Zone. I'll have to e-mail Tesla and see if they would be willing to replace the worn out red pixels in my monitor...

    [?IMG]
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  • Aug 4, 2016
    FlatSix911
  • Aug 4, 2016
    flamingoezz
  • Aug 4, 2016
    dhanson865
    US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

    2011 end 1,900
    2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
    2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
    2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
    2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
    2016 Jul 86,804 (14,240 Model S and 7,690 Model X = 21,390 for Jan-Jul 2016 + prior years)

    So if I got the math right we are at 86,800 or so at end of July. At 3,200 a month they'll hit US 100,000 in November 2016. If sales ramp up it could happen earlier, if sales slow it could happen after Christmas (the big end of year push gets tons of cars delivered the last week of Dec).

    I'd also say that means they won't hit 200,000 in the US before Model 3 starts production.

    I think the thing that confuses so many is Tesla talks about increased production rates, but in reality the majority of the increase production is going to foreign countries (as close as Canada and as far away as Asia).
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  • Aug 4, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Your math is correct for 86.8K sales to date in the US. :cool:
    However, the 2Q16 report states increased production of 50K for 2H16.
    I would estimate 60% would be foreign bound, so add 20K for total estimated US sales of 106K by YE 2016.

    upload_2016-8-4_13-27-59.png
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  • Aug 4, 2016
    dhanson865
    Great but look at 2015 numbers for a second

    50,658 produced by Tesla
    25,914 counted as US.

    We also already have the July numbers for US so you can't add 6 months worth, we only have 5 months left.

    I could see an additional 7,000 to 10,000 in the US if they pull the rate up as discussed and that could pull the 100,000 mark closer to October than November but that isn't a huge shift time wise.
    �
  • Aug 4, 2016
    Chopr147
    Looks like it will still be available for model 3 sales. But how many? 50k? Model 3 sales with full credit? If, and that's a big IF the 3 sales start next July. I am hoping for a half credit anyway.
    �
  • Aug 4, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Good point. I think we are in agreement that Tesla will complete 2016 with +100K US sales. :cool:
    The big question is will cumulative 2017/2018 sales exceed 200K as Model 3 deliveries begin ... :eek:
    �
  • Aug 4, 2016
    FlatSix911
  • Aug 4, 2016
    TslaIsFuture
    Even it tesla hits 200k US sales before M3 production....they could still have 300k+ US M3 owners take the credit in some form. If they hit 200k US sales on October 1st 2017 and they begin M3 production at that point, Tesla has 6 months of full credit M3 production, 6 months of half credit and another 6 months of 1/4 credit. How many M3's do you think they could produce from October 2017-March 2019? There is no need to worry from any current reservation holders even if you reserved today.
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  • Aug 4, 2016
    dhanson865

    The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters.

    For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.

    Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit

    Q1 2018 Full amount
    Q2 2018 Full amount
    Q3 2018 50% of full amount
    Q4 2018 50% of full amount
    Q1 2019 25% of full amount
    Q2 2019 25% of full amount
    Q3 2019 No credit

    It's entirely possible that it will trigger sooner and run out sooner but the important concept is that it doesn't go away immediately and when it starts going away it diminishes slowly not all at once.

    If Tesla is pumping out 10,000 plus a month in 2018 they could easily sell 50,000 or more with the full tax credit They could then be selling double that amount in the next 6 months with half tax credit. And then double rate again with 1/4 tax credit. All in all hundreds of thousands of Model 3s could be sold with federal tax credit.

    Keep in mind Tesla can game this slightly by focusing on overseas deliveries of Model S and Model X the month they are going to roll over 200,000 US deliveries. If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.
    �
  • Aug 4, 2016
    FlatSix911
    Great example. :cool: Therefore, based on your estimate of 10K per month for Model 3 production:

    30K - Q1 2018 Full amount
    30K - Q2 2018 Full amount
    30K - Q3 2018 50% of full amount
    30K - Q4 2018 50% of full amount
    30K - Q1 2019 25% of full amount
    30K - Q2 2019 25% of full amount
    180K - Total 60K full credit, 120K partial credits. So approximately half of the current reservations.

    �
  • Aug 5, 2016
    landis
    Also including the (not unreasonable) doubling part of the 'estimate' yields 60k+120k+240k=420k, or all of the known reservation holders.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2016
    Chuq
    Also don't forget that the number only counts cars sold in the US, not made in the US, so deduct the Europe/Asia/Australia reservation holders from that.

    (I expect that when Tesla start to get close to 200,000 in a quarter, they'll put the US ones on hold until the next quarter, at which point they will go flat out fulfilling as many US orders as they can.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2016
    dsvick
    Now that the thread has been completely hijacked ....

    My, quick math gives me...
    86804 US sales to date
    25000 Additional US sales for 2nd half of 2016 (using the TMs estimate of 50,000 produced, guessing that half stay in the US)
    78000 US, MS and MX sales for 2017 (figuring production at 3000 per week half of which stay in the US)

    That's right at 190,000 with no M3 sales figured. I'm thinking M3 deliveries start late Q3 or early Q4 of 2017, and if they hit even the low end of their estimate and produce 100,000 in 2017, they should hit the 200,000 in Q4.

    Keeping in mind that these guesses are no better, and probably worse than, using a magic 8 ball.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2016
    lklundin
    I am guessing that they are optimizing their US sales on a slightly longer time scale.

    By that I mean that if Tesla deliberately export the majority of their production for one or even better two years, then by the time they start a quarter with US sale number 200k, their annual production could be at its planned maximum of 500k.

    At an annual production of 500k vehicles, the maximum achievable tax rebate would be:
    200k * 7500$ = 1500 M$ (full tax rebate for US sales up to 200k vehicles)
    250k * 7500$ = 1875 M$ (full tax rebate for US sales in two subsequent quarters)
    250k * 3750$ = 937.5 M$ (half tax rebate for US sales in two subsequent quarters)
    250k * 1875$ = 468.75M$ (quarter tax rebate for US sales in two subsequent quarters)

    That works out to 4.8 G$ in tax rebates (but assumes very limited domestic sales until maximum production is achieved followed by no exports for 18 months...)
    �
  • Aug 5, 2016
    flamingoezz
    Elon has stated that the ramp for M3 with be an S-curve. He didn't know when the ramp would begin, but I think it's fair to say that the number of cars built or delivered wouldn't look the same for over a year. It might looks something more like this -- just my guess.

    Q3 2017 Full amount
    20K S+X, 20K M3
    Employee Pre-orders

    Q4 2017 Full amount
    22K S+X, 35K M3
    West Coast S&X owners

    Q1 2018 Full amount
    24K S+X, 40K M3
    200K cars in US, rebate starts phasing out
    East Coast S&X owners start arriving

    Q2 2018 Full amount
    24K S+X, 75K M3
    Day 1 non-S&X owners
    15% shipped internationally -- probably Canada/Mexico
    Approx 160K M3's get full credit -- all of day one US preorders

    Q3 2018 50% of full amount
    26K S+X, 90K M3
    60% shipped internationally
    Europe/Asia start seeing cars

    Q4 2018 50% of full amount
    26K S+X, 95K M3
    60% shipped internationally
    400K cars in 2018 -- short of Elon's 500K estimate
    75K M3's get 50% credit -- accounting for all pre-reveal 2 reservations
    All international pre-orders get their car by end of 2019

    Q1 2019 25% of full amount
    14K S+X, 100K M3
    65% shipped internationally

    Q2 2019 25% of full amount
    14K S+X, 105K M3
    65% shipped internationally


    I'm basing this on:
    Elon's statements about placing a preorder now to get a car in 2018 (during Q2 conference call)
    Elon's statements about 500K car production in 2018
    Elon's statements about 100-200K car production in 2018
    Elon's statements about the ramp up for M3 being an S-curve
    Elon's statements about sacrificing numbers in a quarter to maximize customer happiness (in relation to tax credits)
    Tesla's history of not hitting deadlines
    Elon's statements about delivery priority in USA
    Tesla X history of beginning international distribution 3Q after release in USA
    Tesla X history of starting international deliveries in Canada




    �
  • Aug 13, 2016
    SageBrush
    Gaming the tax credit rules is no doubt attractive to Tesla because it is important to customers, but it is obviously not the only consideration:
    • Current Tesla owners were promised early access
    • A close_to_home beta is almost certainly advisable to iron out first run bugs
    �
  • Aug 15, 2016
    Topher
    Neither of those would seem to much affect the tax credit situation.

    Thank you kindly.
    �
  • Aug 15, 2016
    SageBrush
    Agreed; I wrote that post too long ago to remember the intent.
    �
  • Aug 15, 2016
    22522
    Yes
    �
  • Aug 18, 2016
    Red Sage
    Here is a list of recent unit sales for vehicles I believe will be direct competitors to Tesla Model ?:

    2015 US SALES
    47,080_-_ Acura TLX
    00,000_-_ Alfa Romeo Giulia
    29,013_-_ AUDI A4
    94,427_-_ BMW 3-Series
    46,082_-_ BMW 4-Series
    26,873_-_ Cadillac ATS
    43,874_-_ Infiniti Q50
    00,000_-_ Jaguar XE
    46,430_-_ Lexus IS
    86,080_-_ Mercedes-Benz C-Class?

    So, a market of 419,859 cars during 2015. Where BMW 3-Series and 4-Series combined for 140,509 units sold in 2015, they are a bit behind that pace this year. The 4-Series sold 46,082 cars in the last seven months of 2015, but sold only 21,462 units during the first seven months of 2016. With only 39,775 units sold through July 2016, the 3-Series is on a pace to have a US total well below 90,000 units for the first time in the past 14 years.

    Usually, December is among their best months for sales, allowing for a strong finish, but in 2015 they were unusually low at under 5,300 units. For comparison they sold 19,464 units in December 2014 and in a low year, they sold 8,489 units in December 2011.

    Meanwhile, the Mercedes-Benz C-Class has sold 43,609 units so far this year, 12.3% off the 49,721 pace through the first seven months of 2015, though enough to claim the lead in class so far this year.

    If Tesla Motors is able to build 300,000 of the Model ? during 2018... And 60% of those reach US Customers... That would be 180,000 units. Nearly 40,000 units more than BMW 3-Series and 4-Series have managed combined in any given year. And if it ends up being 'only' 40% of that total... That is still 120,000 units in the hands of US Customers. Far more than any other vehicle in class. I'm contemplating removing the 'If' and starting with 'When' instead...
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    SageBrush
    Not meant to detract from your post*, I suspect that the list of pirated sales will be deep and varied. It is certainly true for me as a hybrid to EV convertee and more generally a consumer who has never had reason until now to spend M3 level of money on a car before.

    *It's hard to imagine that the luxury marquees will not be dragged down by Tesla
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    Neohippy
    The new M3 is going to be the most money I have spent on a car myself. I'm planning on getting a heavily optioned one. I'm a car fanatic and a speed junky. This car will satisfy all of my needs. I'm thinking of selling my supercharged Nsx since I rarely drive it and after driving a P90D it felt slow. The performance you get with Tesla is amazing.
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    Red Sage
    Correct. I think that Mercedes-Benz would be happy to simply hold serve, and maintain a second place status with the C-Class. Just behind the Tesla Model ? instead of the 3-Series perennial leader. The C-Class is actually leading among this class of cars so far during 2016.

    2016 US Sales YTD
    22,037 _-_ Acura TLX
    00,000 _-_ Alfa Romeo Giulia
    18,499 _-_ AUDI A4
    39,775 _-_ BMW 3-Series
    21,462 _-_ BMW 4-Series
    11,883 _-_ Cadillac ATS
    23,059 _-_ Infiniti Q50
    _1,872 _-_ Jaguar XE
    20,560 _-_ Lexus IS
    43,609 _-_ Mercedes-Benz C-Class?
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    SageBrush
    I'm relieved that you agree with me, but that does not make me correct.
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    Red Sage
    Well, they could be 'dragged down' by their own pride, prejudice, and sense of perspective instead. :D
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    ggies07
    damn I like your math son! :)
    �
  • Aug 19, 2016
    physicsfita
    I tend to agree -- when I was standing in line on 3/31, I only noticed a couple 3-series class or better cars in the lot. There were a decent number of hybrids and fuel-efficient cars as well as bunch of more-traditional "gets you from A to B" vehicles.
    �
  • Aug 22, 2016
    Red Sage
    Thanks. Tesla Motors doesn't actually have to manufacture 500,000 vehicles in 2018. Though it would be nice. If Model S and Model X combined comes to 100,000 units and Model ? is 'only' 200,000 units, they will probably make a very nice showing in the US. I figure that would mean about 50,000 of Generation II cars, with a minimum of 120,000 Model ? showing as Delivered here. If Tesla Motors were to sell 170,000 vehicles domestically just two years from now, that would put them right in line with traditional automobile manufacturers such as these:

    2012 -- Acura and Buick both sold over 150,000 but less than 200,000 units as a brand. 120,000 units or more for any particular vehicle make and model would have reached #35 overall, and #18 for a passenger car, that year.

    2013 -- Acura, Audi, and Cadillac each sold over 150,000 but less than 200,000 units as a brand. 120,000 units or more for any particular vehicle make and model would have reached #39 overall, and #18 for a passenger car, that year.

    2014 -- Acura, Audi, and Cadillac each sold over 150,000 but less than 200,000 units as a brand. 120,000 units or more for any particular vehicle make and model would have reached #41 overall, and #21 for a passenger car, that year.

    2015 -- Acura, and Cadillac both sold over 150,000 but less than 200,000 units as a brand. 120,000 units or more for any particular vehicle make and model would have reached #40 overall, and #20 for a passenger car, that year.?

    Because of this, I feel confident in predicting that the Tesla Model ? will at the very least: 1) Get into the Top
    50 vehicles sold; and 2) Reach at least the Top 25 passenger cars sold in the US during 2018. That is, to me, a rather conservative estimate. I strongly believe that Tesla Motors will want to do even better, by having more than 50% of Model ? Deliveries during 2018 go to US Customers for most of the year. If the Model ? manages to
    somehow surpass 200,000 units in the US during one calendar year, that will stand as firm notice to the traditional automobile manufacturers that this is no fad. People want compelling, long range, fully electric cars and are willing to pay for them.

    I know that most people seem to think of 'mass market' as being a particular price point. I believe it is instead based upon the number of units sold. There are numerous 'cheap' cars that are regularly outsold by vehicles that cost twice as much. A low price does not guarantee wide sales, because some very 'affordable' cars nevertheless find no takers. When it comes to new cars, people do their best to buy what they want. Because they deserve to.
    �
  • Aug 23, 2016
    SageBrush
    It is interesting to think a bit about 'mass market.'
    • One the one hand it might imply profit: if car 'A' is profitable, the lots of 'A' sold is that much more profit
    • Unrelated to profit, car 'A' sold means car 'B' from the competitor(s) is not.
    Tesla appears to be a real threat on both fronts to the competitors.
    �
  • Aug 26, 2016
    FlatSix911
  • Aug 27, 2016
    Red Sage
    I think a whole lot of different 'car Bs' (named 3-Series, A4, ATS, C-Class, IS, Q50 or XE) will be going unsold in the next five years if they are not fully electric.
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    RubberToe
    Well, the August sales numbers for all the Model 3 competitors are in. No point in making the drooling masses wait any longer, so on to the spreadsheet...

    Nothing much new here, lots of RED as usual, but we are getting used to that. 15 of the 20 vehicles being tracked show August sales that are down from 2015 levels. The Audi A4 looks to be able to hang green through the year barring an end of year collapse, but sales have been pretty steady so far in 2016. Our other green entry, the Jaguar XF, sells a few hundred cars a month.

    Also note that the 800lb Gorilla in the room (Toyota Prius) finally just squeaked over the 10,000 monthly sales mark. Not unlink a marathon runner who manages to barely stumble across the finish line, only to collapse like a quivering blob of jello. I guess that 117 month 0% financing and $47,000 pre-paid credit card (some severe limitations apply) deals are showing some results! Can't wait to see how the rest of the year pans out.

    [?IMG]

    I checked prior years Prius sales to see how many months they hit 10,000 total sales, here is that data:

    2010: 10
    2011: 7
    2012: 8
    2013: 7
    2014: 6
    2015: 4
    2016: 1 so far

    And yes, I know, the Prius V and the Prius C sell about 1,400 units per month each, so I'm not comparing Apples to Lemurs, blah, blah, blah... :p

    [?IMG]
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    SageBrush
    Interesting data, thanks.

    How are the $ numbers calculated, or where are they from ? Actual revenue, or some estimate based on ... ?
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    Neohippy
    Say what you want but the Prius is the most cost effective vehicle on the road right now. The new plug in is also much improved. Sales are down because of gas prices. SUV sales are back up again and this year we have consumed the most gas in a year so far in history.
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    RubberToe
    Sage,
    The $$$ column at the end is simply the 2016 sales minus the 2015 sales multiplied by the MSRP. Basically a seat of the pants guess on my part. Just trying to get a basic handle on the $$$ up or down based on sales.

    RT
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    RubberToe
    Neo,
    Mrs. Toe is driving a Fiat 500e, which has a $98 per month lease. We charge at home from solar panels, so no electricity cost. Her prior vehicle was a Honda Element, and the gas savings alone pay for the $98 and then some. So the Prius is not the most cost effective vehicle on the road, unless Mrs. Toe has run off the road on her way home from work today ;)

    All kidding aside, I used to own and drive a 2013 Prius Persona, Black Cherry Pearl. Beautiful car, no problems, 46MPG. My Snarkiness toward Toyota is due to their advanced case of arterial sclerosis, where the "fuel cell mania" flowing through their collective arteries has restricted the blood flow to their brains to such a degree that they have been "one upped" on the technology front by Tesla.

    Toyota will go down in the history books right next to Kodak. They got completely off track, and put all their money on the wrong horse. And when it was pointed out to them by every sane person on the planet that their horse was lame, they tripled down and dropped another $1 billion on the race. This is not going to end well for those betting on the fuel cell horse. The Gigafactory and those that follow will be the last straw as battery costs plummet.

    RT
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    ummgood
    That and the latest design is hideous.
    �
  • Sep 2, 2016
    22522
    Toyota seems suicidal.
    They make reliable cars.
    That are proudly hideous.
    And hit cones, front tires are too skinny.
    �
  • Sep 3, 2016
    omgwtfbyobbq
    Those EV leases in California have been pretty good assuming someone drives less than 10k miles. Above that, things get pricier because of the mileage fees on leases. A used EV or hybrid is probably the lowest cost option, but for new cars some of those leases are hard to beat.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2016
    Red Sage
    Exactly. Precisely. Correctomundo!
    �
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