Apr 19, 2009
stevebalmmer hallo tesla fans! I would want sometimes questions whether somebody has infos about blue star. From tesla I get none infos. I show the car becomes quite first in 2014 on the market comes, but this car would be something for my Famile. Also the price of approx. 30,000 dollars, would feel well. Is there also tesla fans from Germany here?�
Apr 19, 2009
efusco I think the information you have is about all that anyone knows right now. The focus is clearly on the Model S at this point. I think the future of the Blue Star is highly dependent upon the Model S being successful. So we're unlikely to hear much, if anything, about the Blue Star until the Model S is released.�
Apr 19, 2009
Takumi You can find all the info we've got here.
Tesla Motors Club Forum - Search Results�
Apr 19, 2009
graham While not the Blue Star per se, the Electric Smart that Tesla is partnered with Daimler to make is somewhat close in spirit to what they hope the Blue Star will be.�
May 2, 2009
ChrisC Takumi, search results are temporary and so that URL does work.
For BlueStar info, go to the future-cars forum section and look for "Blue".�
May 2, 2009
TEG I suspect Tesla's vision would seat 4 and have a more conventional 4 door size & shape. The Smart is great, but it is a bit on the impractical side as a mainstream car. Also it doesn't have the full Tesla "cool factor" in the design.
Something more this size:
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_v4TaZYXhK-fU0AVjfHVNPhFpkPg0PFD8xJgHd0_pEL856c3W47jz7dbDsRmGulCEpoShD9hm-M7landReR1L_lWDBo7kSQnmqbL7vTtSwMbmpemq-4h73iqxcJMlpI=s0-d)
�
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_t4zsEhuax9CO7i9wQtAW_tk428Iv9iURIMfuyJxAa4QVG195MqY-0XXx6TPrXVtDIjGD5-FoBD1OGxEHLH7Ta0O4Lykkfi7w5royQpC_kdrdmisUFnj98_x1hecb4IOydWJW6aoK9xMU8=s0-d)
May 2, 2009
TEG Elon Musk Envisions Tesla Electric Car as Low as $20K�
May 2, 2009
AnOutsider hmm.. that article looks pretty old�
May 2, 2009
TEG Yes, but they don't talk a lot about "Blue Star" much so you have to go back a bit to find some more relevant quotes.
Targeting $20-$30K is encouraging.
Tesla's recent point about fuel cost savings making the car effectively less expensive (compared to a gas car) is a good one. The problem is people see the purchase price more clearly than the long term savings from not using gasoline. The Better Place idea of owning the car but effectivly leasing the battery makes sense for an even less expensive vehicle that could turn out to undercut even the least expensive gas cars. You know how we feel about leasing after what happened with the EV1, but some people can't afford to buy a battery pack even on a low end vehicle.
The Roadster and Model S don't really compete with the Better Place plan (although they might like to have access to better place chargers), but the plans for "Blue Star" start to mesh with Better Place as both companies try to serve the true mainstream.�
May 2, 2009
doug From the NYT here:
�
May 2, 2009
TEG Mini Clubman is bigger than a Smart but still small.
Will they do half rear doors like on the Clubman and Rx-8?
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_uTMbwXDrXTvGDSBLehjcOrCqOurJO6gGXty-bFy2Nc6XCWrKelv1pqQmYfqtCOuTzdkJbNc7JdEjf0RjHB5waJEZNIRr2RHVsEKl7PZ4S__HV6O4Dgd28=s0-d)
�
May 2, 2009
EVnut I agree that an E-Smart swings the pendulum too far in the small direction. Maybe a micro car can be the follow-on "Black Star." My big hope was for a small mid-size vehicle - something in the Civic to Prius range. But then nobody really asked me, did they?
Something with the interior size of the Mini Clubman would be great. For me, the S is just too damn big, and the Smart is too damn small. I need Goldilocks' car!�
May 2, 2009
TEG Something the size of the MiEV?
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_v2EbR2hxzKl5EohIQgFCw9LJ4yL3LioqcPcqcqtdIo6iUvyqZzdqM1m0canOHfifDpNhwoQqiYgkG5XJ67E0wNppXkGXfxAyEJlbTBMGd3=s0-d)
�
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vQMu6p58t74ghLnDcoEQbrroZJcxn0kZvCrDsI7h8qnF1TTL4Y6PxTLsWEN3Vfp47AHY6kg1bC9Vv3WMv0ZGgLNbLLpRsjKlaTPrtBTwED_lPj6KCsB6ZP4k3hICDj8Tw=s0-d)
May 2, 2009
WarpedOne No.
Model S is a large saloon, next smaller step is a midsize saloon or a 5-door hatchback. Fiat Bravo, Renault Megane, Mazda 3, Toyota Auris, Honda CIvic. Such cars are very popular in Europe, I guess they aren't so popular in USA ...
MeEV, Yaris, Mazda2 and similar 4 wheeled abominations cause mental illness.�
May 2, 2009
Chris H. In "Elonspeak" that means $37,400.00, minus the Fed rebate...�
May 2, 2009
TEG Well, I think the mini Clubman that the NYT article mentioned is closer to MiEV/Yaris/Mazda2 then it is to Bravo/Megane/Civic, etc.
Also the Smart that Graham mentioned is even smaller still.
I agree that it would be best if it were larger than Smart and Mini (even the Clubman).
Around here the Smart and Mini are really niche vehicles, whereas cars like the Civic, Corolla, & Mazda3 are the big sellers.
Perhaps just an 8/10th scale Model S.�
May 2, 2009
efusco To sell they need something designed like the Prius. Small outside, capacious inside, aerodynamic, family oriented with decent cargo capacity. There are a million cute little uber-golf carts out there and on the horizon, but if Tesla's going to be taken seriously as a real car maker they have to build cars that real, mainstream, people want to buy.�
May 2, 2009
dpeilow WarpedOne - those sized cars are pretty popular in the US too. I think if Tesla do make the bluestar smaller than say a BMW 3 series, they are missing the most popular segment. I think there is still a long way to go...�
May 3, 2009
WarpedOne I agree, only that 3-series is still a sedan and that rear boot is nothing to write home about. Tesla already has a roadster, we hope they will have a large sport saloon. To really widen their portfolio they need something that is really different, not only of different size. Like a midsized hatchback. I really like that Fiat Bravo design, I'd say it would be perfect in e-Bravo form with a little added luxury.
�
May 3, 2009
AnOutsider Well with Franz at the helm, we should get something aesthetically-pleasing, even if it's not the size everyone hopes for. That guy is like a goose, and he's found the perfect nest to lay his golden eggs.
Most conventional companies (like the ones he worked for) tend to shy away from concept designs that are edgy when it comes to production. So far, the Model S is edgy, yet conservative (and classy) enough to make it to market relatively unchanged from the current design.�
May 3, 2009
EVnut I think that iMiEV will be a fantastic car - for its intended purpose. I've said it before, and I agree with Evan - the ideal follow-on car to the S Sedan is a Prius-class vehicle. Maximized interior space, minimized exterior. Good for a standard US family with gear. The iMiEV is too small for this job, the Prius if perfect.
If Tesla jumps for a large car like the S, to a Micro car like the iMiEV, I think the masses are being missed completely. We need something in the MIDDLE of the spectrum. We already have two cars at the extreme ends.�
May 5, 2009
sergeklapwijk IMO the Clubman is a very good type of car to pursue. Of course, without the door arrangement used on that car, horrid. Allowing 4 adults, maybe +2 kids. With back seats folded down allowing the same kind of space as a Model S (with his seats up). With the Blue Star's seats up, making a 4 adult + baggage journey comfortably possible (count in, you also have cargo space under the bonnet so it can be smaller than a comparable ICE-powered car) . An agile swifty Clubman-ish would be the perfect deal for me. Just for god's sake, make normal, actually practical doors all 'round, not like expect anything else from Tesla :wink:.�
Oct 5, 2011
AnOutsider This Article states that Bluestar may forego Aluminum for pressed steel:
�
Oct 5, 2011
vfx Here's what I got on the third-gen Tesla.
Size of a BMW 3 series. The Jetta was also mentioned.
An EU letter classification of C
In the US it is a Compact car or in the EU a Small Family Car
This info came from to top execs separately.�
Oct 5, 2011
TEG Hopefully they will take a used Leaf as a trade-in!�
Oct 5, 2011
vfx A battery guy said he saw no reason that further down the line by the time they get to the third gen that it should have a similar battery choice to today's Model S.
Where do I put down a deposit?�
Oct 5, 2011
VolkerP buy TSLA�
Oct 5, 2011
Kevin Harney If Telsa can make something similar to my 3 series Convertible I am in all the way !!�
Oct 10, 2011
Nik Excellent. If it can have the same luggage volume/size ration as the Model S it will carry as much as the next size up, 5-series or VW Passat - given the imperative to avoid roofboxes and so forth, luggage capacity was a concern with some of the smaller designs people were talking about.
Styling-wise, the current Mazda 6 is perhaps a good early comparator:
�
Oct 13, 2011
VolkerP We all want Tesla to enter the volume market ASAP. Costs they face are
- pay back the $465m govt loan
- develop Model X ($100m was cited, does this include the production lines in the Fremont factory? Let's assume yes)
- develop two additional cars based on the skateboard platform (another $200m)
- develop bluestar platform ($400m)
TOTAL $1,165m
spare cash $660m
planned vehicle sales from 2013
- 20k Model S single shift
- 15k Model X
- another 15k for the other (niche?) models
we arrive at 50k luxury class cars per year. with MSRP $70k, 10% gross margin, earnings would be $350m per year.
Thus, 2 years selling the skateboard platform will earn Tesla enough to have bluestar ready for production.
They better start that in 2012, because it will take 3 years and it should arrive in 2015, right?�
Oct 13, 2011
stevebalmmer bluestar,
what Range will he get fine?more than 500 kilometers?
Which battery will he have?
Unfortunately, it will not be a lithium air battery probably.�
Oct 13, 2011
WhiteKnight It's interesting to think how Tesla will slash $20,000 off the sticker price of Whitestar to make the Bluestar (targeting the entry-level luxury market - BMW 3-series as the benchmark).
The batteries are such a huge proportion of the cost of the car that you cannot really make any headway without slashing the battery size. A BMW 3-series weighs 700 pounds less than a BMW 5-series. So Tesla probably needs to chop 700 pounds in weight. Chopping that weight, in and of itself, probably does not save you that much money (how much does 700# of aluminum cost?). But the real savings would be a smaller amount of energy needed to move the car (possibly a smaller motor) and a smaller battery pack since you can get more mileage with less energy.
Given the current investment in aluminum producing infrastructure (and the expertise they are developing) I would think they stick with aluminum for the weight factor (and resulting battery size).
Bluestar probably is narrower, has less of a frunk and less of a trunk and a slightly smaller back seat. Probably remains a hatchback for the aerodynamics. Has fewer bells and whistles.
The best scenario is that battery costs come down so substantially that most of the $20K gap is covered by that. The 160 mile pack costs somewhere between $16,000 and $24,000 to make. If prices drop by 25-35% that right there would mean a $4,000 - $8,000 chop in prices. If they can chop 560 pounds off the car (20%) then that chops 240 pounds off the battery (20%) and shaves another $4,000 or so off the price. Now you're within striking distance and maintain most of bells & whistles & creature comforts inside the cabin from the Model S.
By the way, if battery prices drop, then the Model S can be upgraded with an even nicer interior and even more bells & whistles standard.�
Oct 13, 2011
AnOutsider Isn't steel heavier than aluminum? If so, they'll actually be adding weight (well, more weight than they would have added had they gone with aluminum). I'd imagine they may go cheaper on the interior and other niceties. It will be smaller of course, and lower in performance. I can see them going with a 150-200 mile range (at that time, it might be cheaper to do than it is to do the 160 mile on S today). That might be enough to bring the price down. I imagine the base model will be VERY basic though with people optioning their way up out of the 30's (take a look at the maximum cost thread).�
Oct 13, 2011
WhiteKnight Steel is absolutely heavier than aluminum and also considerably less expensive. Tesla might be tempted to switch to steel to save costs and the added weight might not be a problem if this were an ICE car. But I doubt they will switch because even though the performance penalty in 0-60 would be acceptable the need for bigger batteries to maintain the same range would NOT be acceptable from a cost standpoint.
Sorry I wasn't more clear.
My grand conclusion is that very little matters other than battery costs. Battery prices come down 25%-35% and the Bluestar will be a great car for the money (and Model S will have much nicer standard features too). If battery prices don't come down that much then Bluestar will be either too small or too cheap (quality not price) relative to the BMW 3 series.
A Chevy Volt and a BMW 3-Series are the same price after federal tax credits and if you set aside a desire to "go green" there's no doubt that the BMW 3-Series is a better all around car. Whereas you could put a Model S against a BMW 5-series and win on merits alone.�
Oct 13, 2011
Doug_G The weight isn't the overriding issue. It's aerodynamics. If the car is smaller it will automatically have less drag. If they make it small and with an excellent drag coefficient, then they'll need less batteries.�
Oct 13, 2011
JRod0802 Good aerodynamics will increase the range more on the highway, and not matter too much in the city. Low weight will increase the range more in the city, and not matter too much on the highway. Considering that EVs are already really good in the city, perhaps Bluestar will be small / aerodynamic, but made out of steel. That would reduce the price because it's smaller and reduce the price because it's steel, as well as help out the highway range range at the cost of a lower city range.
Considering that people tend to run out of range on the highway, rather than when driving in the city, a small aerodynamic steel car might be the best option to get the price into the mid 30's.�
Oct 13, 2011
richkae Aluminum is about $1.20 per pound. Steel is about $.25 to $.30 per pound.
If 1/2 of the non battery weight is aluminum - then the Model S has about 1500 pounds of aluminum.
It seems unlikely that $1500 of raw materials is that big of an issue.
The presses, robots, welders and everything that put together an aluminum car are probably a lot more expensive than the ones that build a steel car.
Welding and cutting aluminum takes a ton more precision than steel.
In the Model S video, they talked of stampings, extrusions and castings. I asked an engineer at the Tesla factory tour and he said that they would do all the stampings at their factory but they had to outsource ( some of ) the castings and extrusions.
Those castings and extrusions are probably expensive ( compared to inhouse stampings ).
If Tesla spends $300 million on all the robots and presses and other factory bits to make the Model S, thats $3000 per car if they sell 100,000 cars over 6 years.
How much of the machinery that they put in for the Model S will they be able to reuse for Bluestar?
If the Bluestar is steel, does that mean that they reuse none of the presses?�
Oct 13, 2011
richkae This number is high - where did you get it?
I don't think its meaningful to talk about the cost per battery pack until you can establish scale. Most of the cost of assembling the packs is fixed overhead.
The same pack that is $16000 in quantities of hundreds could easily be less than $6000 in quantities of hundreds of thousands.
It is the most important cost of the car, but I am dubious of those numbers.�
Oct 13, 2011
Lloyd That question was asked on our tour, and all of the machinery is usable for multiple lines, including steel.�
Oct 13, 2011
Doug_G Yeah, but look at the range of the Roadster when you drive slowly; it's much larger than the rated 240 miles. So I would argue at low speeds none of it matters quite as much. Yes, stop-and-go traffic will reduce that ideal range, but regenerative braking will help with that. So I still contend that aerodynamics are more important overall.�
Oct 13, 2011
richkae So now I am curious about the 20,000 car per year number for producing Model S cars. What is the constraining factor on that?
How much of what we saw could do dual duty punching out 20,000-35,000 Model S and X cars and 50,000-100,000 bluestar cars?
Seems likely that the stamping line could do dual duty, and that the constraint is the assembly line area and maybe welding robots.�
Oct 13, 2011
Doug_G How about fixing the spelling mistake in the title of this thread? :tongue:�
Oct 13, 2011
Lloyd Our guide was the training lead. I was told that 20 k cars were possible from an 8 hour shift 5 days per week! You do the math for a 24/7 factory operation.
�
Oct 14, 2011
VolkerP It is clear that bluestar must be an exceptional vehicle concept to succeed. We should expect Tesla to go outside of the box to achieve this. Let us do critical reconsideration of every feature bluestar will have.
* Number and arrangement of seats. will they have conventional arrangement (two rows with two seats)?
* vehicle shape: there is no engine compartment. A front trunk will do nicely. What benefits can be explored from eliminating the rear trunk? or the other way around?
* crumple zones: front and rear can be optimized for crash safety, still can be a lot shorter than compact car class. Expect to see drastic differences from conventional car outline.
* body material, weight, battery size & cost, aerodynamics were discussed already. what points to reconsider if we go think out of the box?
* simpler interior. I can imagine a smaller touch screen. what else?
* less bells & whistles. That's for sure, as it is no longer luxury class.
One point to add: dramatic price reductions on the EV specific parts due to mass production.
- estimates for empty Model S pack range up to $4000. Should drop to $1000
- electric power steering
- electrically actuated brakes
- electric HVAC unit
what more?
Let's come up with some really good ideas.�
Oct 14, 2011
doug done and done�
Oct 14, 2011
stevebalmmer the bluestar must have,
a good price, under 35000 Euro.
range over 400 kilometers.
4-5 Passengers in the car.�
Oct 14, 2011
WhiteKnight Wall Street analysts are saying the battery pack is between $300 and $375 per kWh (Tesla's cost). Tesla also is targeting 25% gross margins so that's more like $400-$500 per kWh (cost to the public). With a 42kWh pack in the 160 mile car, that means the cost to the public is $16,800 - $21,000.
Alternatively you could look and say 70 miles of range costs you $10,000 (in the leap from 160 to 230 and 230 to 300). That's $142.85 per mile. For 160 miles that is $22,856.
So yeah I guess $24,000 is a little too high. Should have said $23K�
Oct 14, 2011
WhiteKnight By the way, this is a tremendous cost advantage relative to any other EVs from the traditional large automakers.
Nanosys says they can produce batteries in 5 years that will cost under $250 per kWh (and I've seen other similar claims). That's a 16%-33% improvement depending on where you believe Tesla's costs are today.
Commercialization of High-Capacity Electric Vehicle Battery Materials by Nanosys Approved for by DOE in $11 Million Program�
Oct 14, 2011
TEG Short answer - 3/4 size Model S.
Same battery pack layout.
Same rear wheel drive drive-train layout.
2 rows of seats, not 3.
Seating for 4 or 5 max.
Think general size and shape of Prius and/or LEAF.
Slightly radical styling a la Franz. Perhaps a bit wider in front and more narrow in the rear as that tends to help aero.
Sloping hatchback similar to Model S.
Model S type batteries, but in a smaller pack... Target: 200 mile range.
Similar performance to Model S... 5.6s 0-60 standard, 4.5s sport option.
Slightly sportier seats standard (think grippy buckets, not slippery bench seats.)
Standard large touch screen LCD center controls, although maybe a bit smaller than the Model S version due to interior space and cost reasons.
...We have older threads pondering styling ideas including examples of small sedans and coupes we like to use as examples...
Thinking of BMW 3 series: does Tesla do a convertible hardtop version?
A coupe (2 door) variant along with the 4/5 door sedan?
Basically put everything that is good about Model S into a smaller package.
Emphasize sportiness a bit more and luxury a bit less.�
Oct 14, 2011
Mycroft If Tesla wants to break into the European market, then Bluestar definitely needs to be smaller; think Audi A3 or Lexus CT 200h. To do that, they're going to have to narrow the wheel track. So they either move part of the drive train or they make the electric motor smaller. I'm betting on the former rather than redesigning the motor. If they eliminate the rear-facing seats & footwell, then they can keep the hatchback and storage space, but possibly move some of the equipment behind the axle rather than keeping it all between the two wheels.
Because the car will be quite a bit lighter, they should be able to make the battery pack for the Bluestar more narrow and keep the same range.�
Oct 14, 2011
Doug_G I would hope they could use a smaller pack yet get the same range as the Model S. After all, it's a smaller, lighter, and more aerodynamic car (simply by total area, even if drag coefficient is the same).�
Oct 14, 2011
TEG To keeps costs down they may have to lower the range a bit. 300 mile range technology may still be too expensive for a mass market vehicle even in a few years.�
Oct 14, 2011
VolkerP transferred from 7-series competitor thread:
It appears to me that Tesla is struggling to keep the pace with the resourceful, established car makers. Model S enters the market after GM Volt, Toyota PiP, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Renault Z.E., and Nissan Leaf. Even Fisker is a few months ahead. I and you know these are not all "pure" EVs, but Joe Average?
Tesla really has to get things together on bluestar to make it into production in 2015. By then, the mentioned competitors are on the road, plus BMW i3 & i8. Tesla needs some selling point other than "we're first!", like it was back 2008 with the roadster. They might have more EV experience, more electric miles driven, superior battery and drive train technology. These advantages will wear off really fast.�
Oct 14, 2011
TEG Tesla could have an advantage on brand, styling, purity of messages, etc.
Even if they offer a product with similar features to those other brands they still may be able to outsell them if they are priced similarly.
With S and Roadster, Tesla will be viewed as a 'premium brand'. When 'generation 3' model comes out, some people will want one just to say "I got a Tesla!"�
Oct 14, 2011
AnOutsider Big +1 here. I believe in the product, but their advantage from the perspective of joe blow is waning.
Sadly, as I said in the Karma thread, I think people see the Karma as more premium based on looks. The S is a nice car, but even the refresh of the Betas are on a somewhat dated design (Franz started in Fall of 2008 didn't he?), and it's not very edgy to begin with. I say this not to speak bad of Tesla, but just to say I don't thinkt he Model S will REALLY stand out as much in crowds a few years down the line.�
Oct 14, 2011
vfx On some of the paperwork we have seen a Tesla design shape (not the http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2327&d=1313178854 Model S one seen here) So you can figure that's it's profile. Can't find it online.
Three top execs have said BMW 3 series is the size so speculation outside of that is a waste.
A battery engineer said it was possible 300 miles could be attainable given the trend of battery improvements.�
Oct 14, 2011
VolkerP OK, I went to the BMW online configurator. I picked 320d eficient dynamics sedan because it has best mpg. seats 5. To match blue star, I add options for
1) AC
2) rain sensor & automatic lights (mandatory in California)
3) cruise control
4) heated seats
5) navigation package. Bluestar will have similar (albeit smaller) touchscreen like Model S, and this calls for nav in the basic model.
I end up with 36.290 Euros (possibly $36k in the US -- they rip us off over here in Europe). Tesla should be able to match this even without $7500 tax credit, but it will be incredibly hard to do it in 3 years.�
Oct 14, 2011
Kipernicus I'm just stunned that #1 and #3 are options!�
Oct 14, 2011
AnOutsider I could see #3 but #1!?!?�
Oct 15, 2011
Adm AC is standard on a 320d in Germany, but if you want a full automatic 2 zone AC... , you pay extra, but if you want to regulate the fan on both sides separately you need to order satnav as well... which will cost extra...
Come on VolkerP that's not a rip off! Just don't forget to bend over before leaving the showroom...�
Oct 15, 2011
VolkerP :tongue:�
Oct 15, 2011
WarpedOne VolkerP:
It appears to me you don't know what you are talking about.
I don't get people who think there is place for only one electric car in the wrold. If Tesla is not the first from some (obscure) point of view than they can't and won't succeed?
Pure nonsense. Mercedes, BMW and Porsche have no problem selling cars even though Koreans sell their POS for small fraction of their prices.
Tesla will be able to sell everything they produce for at least another 10 years and more, no matter what other automakers do.
And they are doing mostly noting except showcasing concepts, scratching their heads and talking gibberish.
Nissan Leaf is the *only* electric car on the road that deserves to be called a car and is still miles away from what Tesla produces.
Re BlueStar:
There really is only one way to reduce the price of an electric car: reduce the battery size and range. This will still be the case even when batteries store 10-times more capacity than today.
Gasoline tank only costs some space under rear seats so every gasoline car comes with a tank good for at least 500 miles or more.
Batteries will forever cost more than an empty gasoline tank so electric cars will always cost proportionally to their max range. What Tesla can do is to reduce max range. If Model S has 160, 230 and 300 mile pack, BlueStart could have only 100, 150 and 200 mile packs.�
Oct 15, 2011
VolkerP I would be glad to be proven wrong. I agree that Tesla can sell all the cars they are able to produce. But as they lose the pole position in the "practical car" class, it will become harder to introduce new standards.
Agreed. Range can be increased by reducing rolling resistance, ancillary loads and aerodynamic drag, thus a lower battery capacity will do. Tesla has shown that they can rethink the concept of a sedan, similar ideas are required for blue star. But it will cost time, and there's a penalty for that.
I think the practical limit for a battery pack is 120 miles. Otherwise the power density requirements will lead to make big compromises, like the bulky 24kWh GM Volt battery with only 16kWh usable capacity.�
Oct 15, 2011
vfx 150 miles needs to be the bottom end on miles. Since most people drive 40 miles max a day, that give a 100 mile buffer. Nothing more comforting that have 3 digits on the remaining-miles screen.�
Oct 15, 2011
richkae Thank you for clarifying - it is important to note whether you have included Tesla's margin. Your original post said it cost $16000 to $24000 to make - that is different.
I'd be happy to read any references you have for the $300 to $375 number.
The track record for Wall Street analysts with respect to *anything* EV has been incredibly bad in my estimation.
There are 3 main costs in the battery pack.
#1 are the cells. You can buy 18650 cells at retail for less than $300 per kWh. I bet Tesla pays less than half that.
#2 is the management electronics. This is entirely scale. 1 set of chips may be a million dollars, but a million of them can be a few dollars each.
#3 is assembly. Again scale. A $10 million dollar robot that makes 1000 packs is very expensive, when it makes 100,000 packs over its lifetime it is not.
Any estimate of the cost of a battery pack that doesn't include scale is worthless.
The difference between 600 packs ( Roadster ) per year and 5,000 packs ( first year of Model S ) is huge.
They get another scale jump between 5000 and 20000 when they bump up production, and again when they add Model X.
The difference between 20k-35k packs ( Model S ) and 100k+ packs ( Bluestar? ) is again huge.
Just taking the exact same 160 mile range Model S pack and increasing volume from 10s of thousands per year to 100s of thousands could yield significant cost reductions.�
Oct 15, 2011
Norbert They are quite good with making impressive announcements that sound as if they are progressing faster than Tesla. While it's difficult to know everything that happens behind the scenes, it seems Tesla is actually increasing its lead, although as a company it still has to get to the point where it has the means to mass-manufacture. While many large car manufacturers are now working on bringing EVs to market, there will be more options for buyers, but this will also legitimize, popularize and increase the market towards the mainstream. It will become a bit difficult to say EVs are rubbish when all companies are offering one. Saves Tesla a lot of marketing effort.�
Oct 15, 2011
AnOutsider Theory ahead:
I think once the S is successfully launched, that will buy them time. They can ride the buzz of that for a year easily (being the only EV on the road that's pretty much like a normal car). While people are focusing there, they slap the Model X down on the table (most people probably won't see it coming). As people are reeling from that, they start announcing the other variants, and by then people are thinking "whoa, this is a real company here".
By that time, they should be fairly close to Bluestar and can launch it on brand name alone. not to mention, by the time they actually make an announcement, they'll probably be only a year or so out (not needing to fill gaping voids with announcements since other models are launching in the interim)�
Oct 26, 2011
vfx http://www.racer.com/tesla-plans-all-new-roadster/article/215363/�
Oct 27, 2011
VolkerP Clever move to base the new Roadster on the blue star platform. Should be possible to market an EV with super car performance well above $35k. This accelerates ROI after platform development & production launch for Tesla.�
Oct 27, 2011
stevebalmmer And 2016 produce a Mass Produktion Car of under 35 k Euro.
The tokyo kit have make a prototyp of a new Batterie with toyota, range 1000 kilometers.�
Oct 29, 2011
VolkerP I miss blue star!
Model A (Affordable)
Production Year 2015 (3rd generation platform)
4 Doors, 5 Seats, & Aluminum Body.
120, 160, or 240 mile range
0 to 60 MPH in 7.5 seconds
Starting at 35,000�
Oct 30, 2011
stevebalmmer dear volker.
Blue star, the 3 generation!
A Range of 240 miles, in the year 2016 is not enough.
The highest range on modell S is 240 miles.
The batteries in 4 years are better.
i think we can have a range of 300 miles.!!!!!!!�
Oct 30, 2011
TEG Smaller, cheaper car. Better battery tech, yes, but factors pushing the range in the other direction.�
Oct 31, 2011
stopcrazypp Looking at the Yaris, you only save a couple hundred dollars going to a two door. It doesn't seem to save any weight (less than 10 lbs in the 2011 model, no savings in the 2012 model). The only reason the VW Golf 2 door is so much cheaper is because the 2 door has a 5 speed manual transmission as standard, versus a 6 speed automatic as standard on the 4 door.
I would much prefer the practicality of 4 doors over 2 doors for the little money and weight you save.
The only way Tesla would get massive savings from going to two doors is to go micro-subcompact. That will mean either a two seater like the Fortwo, or making the 3rd and/or 4th seat much less smaller (like in the iQ). I'm not entirely sure there is that big of a market for micro-subcompacts in the US (the Smart failed miserably; iQ isn't out yet, so hard to judge). But I'm sure there's a huge market for 4 door subcompacts (Fit, Versa, Yaris; A3 on the premium side).�
Nov 1, 2011
sjoshuaj I think a better comparison is the BMW 740i Sedan, weight 4,344 lbs (4 Door & 5 Seat Model S equivalent) to the BMW 128i Coupe, weight 3285 lbs (2 Door & 4 Seat Blue Star equivalent). Over a 1000 lbs drop in weight. Not too shabby. :wink:�
Nov 1, 2011
vfx There name "Model S" has been confirmed as a tip of the hat to Henry Ford's Model naming such as the "A" and "T". That car changed the roads by bringing the automobile to be an affordable vehicle for the masses. The new Electrics Tesla is bring is the new paradigm of electrics (all over again)
The Bluestar or what Tesla is now calling the Third Generation "3rd gen" may or may not to have been planned to be Tesla's own "Model T" with the same name. With Tesla's own size comparisons with a BMW 3 series it's looking more high end $30s cost now than a teens or even 20s priced low end car. Since Tesla is not even referring to the car with a letter designation like they are doing with the X, maybe there is an even further car down the road with the "T" name waiting for it.�
Nov 5, 2011
domenick Blue Star definitely won't be a coupe. Four door vehicle sales far outstrip those of coupes and Blue Star will be a volume vehicle.�
Nov 5, 2011
domenick Highest range in the Model S is 320 miles.�
Nov 5, 2011
AnOutsider Well officially 300, though they have hinted at more being possible�
Nov 5, 2011
TEG Supposedly if you order the optional "aerodynamic wheels".
I think they have yet to show what those actually look like.
Since they don't appear to be standard, I gather they might not be everyone's first choice from a style perspective.�
Nov 5, 2011
dsm363 There was a Ford Model S as well
1908 Ford Model S Images, Information and History | Conceptcarz.com�
Feb 11, 2012
vfx �
Feb 11, 2012
Citizen-T This is the second report I've seen that seems to suggest Elon is considering accelerating BlueStar. Perhaps battery technology has improved faster than previously expected. It seems like we might be looking at a late 2014 launch instead of 2015 or 2016 which was the prior expectation.
Very interesting...�
Feb 11, 2012
TEG I wonder about the new front motor in AWD Model X.
It doesn't look as big as the main / rear motor.
Is it a new family of Tesla motor? Or are they getting a 3rd party motor for that application?
Whatever it is, maybe it could end up in Bluestar/GEN-III if the big S & X motor is too big and expensive?�
Feb 11, 2012
Citizen-T Good point. I definitely read somewhere that the front motor was lower horsepower than the back one.�
Feb 11, 2012
vfx I want the Bluestar genIII Model T to be as fast and range worthy as the Model S. Everything that makes it great in a smaller package!�
Feb 11, 2012
TEG Yes, of course, but costs and size may mean that S/X kWh and HP just isn't possible.
Hopefully they get great performance in the smaller package by having less weight.�
Feb 11, 2012
vfx Have faith my friend,�
Feb 11, 2012
Norbert The Model X page says AWD adds 50% torque. Probably the rear motor is the same, so just the front motor might be less than you'd want in the GEN-III cars. I don't think they'd have difficulties building motors of different sizes. The GEN-III motors will probably be carefully optimized for high-volume manufacturing. Whereas the X front motor is probably designed to be built with the same tools as the other motors.�
Feb 11, 2012
doug The implication has been that that smaller motor has 50% of the torque. That's probably enough for a smaller car to do 0 to 60 in 8 seconds or so.�
Feb 11, 2012
vfx Boooo!�
Feb 12, 2012
WhiteKnight I wonder if Elon is talking about a launch party in February 2014 and deliveries start the end of 2015 (similar time frame as Model X)?
Or might we see a BlueStar launch party in February 2013 with deliveries in late 2014?
Sounds to me like Franz and crew are already hard at work!
P.S. New Roadster comes after Gen III according to article in 2015.�
Feb 12, 2012
Robert.Boston For the base trim, 8 seconds is about right -- not what anyone here really wants, but right in line with, say, the VW CC. Put two of these in the AWD version and you'll move right along.�
Feb 12, 2012
dpeilow It didn't stop the Mini-E crowd saying the car was a hoot.�
Feb 12, 2012
WarpedOne 8s is just fine. Still faster than most ordinary ICE cars i.e. non-high/luxury/sport cars.
My first car had 10.5 and was completely usable and quick in ordinary traffic. My current car has 8.5 and is a blast to drive.
Using X's FWD in BlueStar sounds very reasonable from production costs perspective. It depends on gory details if it really is. Developing FWD motor and transmission with fixed gear ratio is not that complicated and expensive. They will probably go with "adapted" FWD for bluestar.�
Feb 12, 2012
AnOutsider I think the 8+ second range is mostly reserved for fuel sipping vehicles these days, so the bluestar could fall right in there if people are worried about mileage (range). There will undoubtedly be a performance model (why can't they just use "sport"?
As an aside, you use "FWD". Are you saying Forward wheel drive or Full? If "full" you should probably use AWD, less confusing.�
Feb 12, 2012
dpeilow 8 seconds is nowhere near fuel-sipping vehicles. That's more like 10 - 11. I think some people at the top end of the market are getting spoiled.
I hope Tesla doesn't make Bluestar FWD. By all means use the X front motor but make it RWD.�
Feb 12, 2012
AnOutsider I regularly watch all CarTech reviews from CNET. 8s seems to be the lowest I've seen any fuel-sipping vehicles get. Do more get higher numbers? Of course. That's why I said "8+" and not just "8".�
Feb 12, 2012
vfx You guys are setting the bar WAY to low. This is Elon. He wants to make better cars. With the comparable sized BMW 3 series at a 0-60 of 5.4 seconds (Edmunds) why would you think Tesla would not at minimum hit that?
By the way, fun to read this ranking of the BMW BMW 328i :
http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/cars-trucks/BMW_3-Series/Performance/
So much dialog on engine shifters, turbo, noise and general engine crap that the bluestar will have none of. Just hope Peter comes back for the handling part.�
Feb 12, 2012
WarpedOne Probably we are / I am.
Acceleration in an EV is limited by controller max amps and traction. Technically there shouldn't be many reasons not to offer ~5s acceleration but then there comes but. BlueStar needs to be cheap. That BMW 3 that hits 5,4 costs a bit over the target price for a BlueStar. Battery will need to be smaller (and hence cheaper), efficiency will need to be higher and tires as slim as possible. Insufficient traction for 5s 0-60 times.
FWD means Front-Wheel-Drive. It does not destroy your rear tires in a week and driving around a corner is not like a roulette. I would want a FWD BlueStar with 4WS (four wheel steering) like I have now. It's a blast!�
Feb 12, 2012
TEG Personally I would want RWD and 0-60 < 6s, but think they need to do whatever they can to make it cost competitive with cars like the LEAF.
For whatever reason (Battery longevity? Insurance rates?) Nissan opted to make the LEAF a modest performance vehicle (only slightly better than a Prius). You know they could have made a motor with more performance if they really thought it made sense. I gather that the mainstream "mass buyer" isn't shopping for high performance.�
Feb 12, 2012
ElSupreme I bought a VW GTI. It is just a Golf but quicker and much better suspension (if you like tight suspensions). I paid ~$8k more for it. And when electric cars start becoming more prevelant people will expect and not be offput about paying more for extra range.
I bet the bluestar could be ~$10k-$15k more than a leaf if it was Bimmer 3 fast, and had 100+ miles of real range. I personally travel about 75-80 miles to and from work, maybe stopping at the grocery store on the way home. So I see 100 real world miles with AC as a sweet spot. Like the 40kWh should do for more than 5 years easily.
EDIT: I also think that people will start realizing they are prepaying for about 5 years of fuel when they buy an electric car. I will save over $3000 a year in car energy costs when I get my S. That is $15,000 off the sticker after my payments go away. A $40,000 EV is about the same as buying a nicer Ford Focus over a 5 year period.�
Feb 12, 2012
WarpedOne This is Model S already.�
Feb 12, 2012
dsm363 I think the Blue Star can start at $40,000 and cross into Model S territory a little. A minimally optioned Model S (with tech package) is over $60,000 and goes way up from there. I must have enough of a range difference and luxury difference to justify the price over the Leaf though.�
Feb 12, 2012
vfx BMW Sedans run from $34K to $ 68K
Edmunds
328i
View All Features & Specs
- 2.0L 4-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 23 cty/34 hwy mpg
- Bluetooth
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
335i
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 20 cty/30 hwy mpg
- Bluetooth
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
Available Wagon Models
Use the Edmunds Pricing System to help you get the best deal:
328i
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 17 cty/26 hwy mpg
- MP3 Player
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
328i xDrive
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 17 cty/25 hwy mpg
- All-wheel drive
- MP3 Player
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
Available Coupe Models
Use the Edmunds Pricing System to help you get the best deal:
328i
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 18 cty/28 hwy mpg
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
328i xDrive
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 17 cty/25 hwy mpg
- All-wheel drive
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
335i
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 19 cty/28 hwy mpg
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
335i xDrive
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 19 cty/26 hwy mpg
- All-wheel drive
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
335is
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 18 cty/26 hwy mpg
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
Available Convertible Models
Use the Edmunds Pricing System to help you get the best deal:
328i
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 17 cty/26 hwy mpg
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
335i
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 19 cty/28 hwy mpg
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
335is
View All Features & Specs
- 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
- Manual transmission
- Up to 18 cty/26 hwy mpg
- iPod input
- Side/Curtain Airbags
- Stability Control
- Traction Control
- Navigation System (Optional)
- Bluetooth (Optional)
Published: 11/15/2011
�
Feb 12, 2012
ElSupreme Not really. The Model S is stupid big. I would buy a smaller car if I could. Bimmer 3 sized! I really don't like driving large cars. It is fun to fit into small spaces!
I really think a $45k-$50k sticker BEFORE the tax credit could really be sold along side a $30k ICE. I don't see Tesla making it to Civic territory for another 5-7 years. I find it very hard to believe Tesla can cut some of the features they seem to really like. Margins start to get razor thin. They will get there just might take a generation or more than everyone thinks.
The good thing is as their production volume goes up, their displays and parts cost will start to go way down. And software development costs will probably be completely recouped. Plus it seems like battery cost is still just a bit out of range of a $30k car. I really don't think Tesla will drop usable range below 100 miles (30-35kWh minimum on a small light car). They want to build cars, not electric cars.�
Feb 12, 2012
EVNow It's not a question of justifying $40k. What volume is Tesla aiming for - and should the price be to achieve those volumes ?�
Feb 12, 2012
Norbert My impression would be that acceleration around 6 sec 0-60 (with a corresponding battery pack size) is relatively easy to achieve with Tesla's tech, and is a great selling point. And it is a hallmark of Tesla to have really good acceleration. Regarding setting expectations, they shouldn't be too high, but also not too low...�
Feb 12, 2012
Grendal Tesla is a Luxury brand. I don't see a problem with $39,900, so $32,400 for a base model Bluestar. Elon stands by his $30K statement and you're at the low end of the luxury market. Going after the Leaf is ridiculous, let Nissan have that end of the market. Tesla should be more upscale and stand out as the company that gives people a quality car with range they would be willing to pay for. An 8 second 0-60 mph seems reasonable with a performance version of under 6 seconds. That's if Elon shoots for that sort of price point. It's possible he does the Bluestar for $47,400 which makes $39,900 after tax break. If so, expect a Model S level car just smaller.
Model M? For mass market car...�
Feb 13, 2012
TEG Sorry - I don't think $47K+ base price would qualify as "mass market".
Also, we don't know if the Fed $7,500 will still be offered then.�
Feb 13, 2012
Norbert They'll try to achieve $30k-$35k (after tax) , but only if they can build a good product for that price, and for Tesla "good" includes "quick". Being cost-competitive with the Leaf is not a primary goal. Achieving a volume of 200,000 per year is, but I expect they will make a slower entry if battery tech doesn't allow a low enough price for a product worth the name Tesla. Achieving quick acceleration easily is a major advantage of electric cars, so it would take a lot for them to sacrifice this competitive advantage. And the competition is gasoline cars, not the Leaf.�
Feb 13, 2012
WarpedOne Ok, we come from a bit different environments. Here in Europe (Slovenia) starting BMW series 3 is a 316i Touring for about 30k EUR (~40k USD). It has a 1.6 litre petrol engine with 90 kW. Acceleration 0-60 is 11.1 seconds. This is what a low-end series 3 means around here
After 316 there are 318i's and 318d's, 320i's and 320d's, 325i's and 325d's and only after those there come 328's and 335's. For abut �50k or $65k. These two are considered a high luxury sport cars around here. Not a mass market vehicles, not by far.
So, a starting $40k BMW around here has 11s 0-60 time. Now you can understand why 8s time seems very good to me
Tesla can choose to be a luxury or a mass market brand, it can't really be both. On the other hand real mass market models sell in 100s thousands, Tesla won't have production capabilities in this league for quite some time in the future so it doesn't make much sense for them to try to compete on price basis with such mass models.
$20k - $30k price target is hence out of the question. They don''t have production volume to make profits at such low price point. I feel we can safely assume BlueStar starting price around or a bit under $40k in USA and around �40k in Europe. This is not mass market but still considerably more accessible than S or X.
After that Tesla needs another factory. Or two.�
Feb 13, 2012
Robert.Boston I agree with your analysis. Elon explicitly said in the "30-40k" range for GenIII, so I expect to see a base model in the mid-upper end of that range. Like BMW, we'll be able to option it up with AWD etc. into the $80k range.
Tesla will need to have eye-popping volumes before it outgrows the old NUMMI plant. That plant was running at 6,000 vehicles per week in its heyday. While I hope Tesla hits that level, it doesn't seem likely that it will do so soon.�
Feb 13, 2012
WarpedOne Hmmm, that is 300k units per year. Ok, that enables them for one Real Mass Market model in $25k class.
Thanks for the info
Interview:
�
Feb 13, 2012
brianman I don't agree with this conclusion. On a per model basis, that might be true but not per brand.
That said, in the near term I agree they can't afford the thin profits of non-premium vehicles.�
Feb 13, 2012
meepz11 I am predicting a $30k car. Apart from seeing many reports/interviews where the $30k number was focused on (though I don't have it in me to dig them up now), I think that if they want to reach the 200,000 unit target they are going to have to do better then $10k less than the base Model S. I am sure they know that. Furthermore, I think that Tesla's decision to move straight to the blue star is in response to competition arriving on the scene. They know if they don't release something in a few years, someone else will come out with the first truly acceptable (in terms of range/charge time, etc) electric mass-market car. Tesla wants to be there first.
I expect that Tesla will significantly cut in to their expected margins (and quite likely intelligently in to their 'premium' brand without sacrificing true quality) to achieve this a, it will after all be the car that not only cements the electric car revolution, but also the car that puts Tesla in the pole position (in terms of technology and increasingly brand awareness) in the new era of automotive. I expect them to deliver something with significant range, speed, design and otherwise a conservative package. Should be interesting to see what they can come up with, but I strongly bet on a starting $30k price tag.�
Feb 13, 2012
meepz11 Just to quickly add. As with the Model X (and given the situation with the SuperCharger) I expect no 40kWh model. I think that a 60kWh model will be available at the $30k price (after the tax credit), with a range of 240-250 miles (given the smaller size). Seems like a lot to deliver, but I think this has to be their primary aim, and they are smart enough and capable enough to do this. All else will be secondary. 200,000 units a year is no small number.�
Feb 13, 2012
brianman Wikipedia has some interview links:
Tesla BlueStar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It's also in the "Tesla Motors Company Overview, Summer 2011" (TSLA_Investor_Presentation.pdf). I have the URL favorite'd but it's failing to load. Fortunately, I saved a copy locally.
Page 4:
Note, however, that the presentation has dated (read: currently incorrect) information on Model X on page 17:
�
Feb 13, 2012
meepz11 Interesting thanks. I think that Tesla Motors Company Overview is actually the one thing that was kind of sticking in my head. I read that, and I noted it. Interesting though that it wasn't accurate with the X. That said though, I still stand by what I said. The whole wiki actually has $30k mentioned all over it. Thanks for finding that.�
Feb 13, 2012
vfx I also disagree. It's possible that the uniqueness of an electric drive-train and being a silicon valley "Think Different" type of company will separate Tesla enough from traditional manufactures to do whatever they want.
They can build luxur while offfering a stripped down delivery vehicle. Something like a base Bluestar would be a low end perfect government car (a Coda killer).
Mercedes has many lines in EU with garbage trucks and other utility vehicles. Here in the US they have traditionally marketed as a luxury brand but recently has been quietly seeling the Sprinter tall van http://www.mbsprinterusa.com/ Tesla has a USP in E drive and it can crossover with function being the key seller, not luxury.
Lastly it has been suggested in another thread that Tesla do a Acura/Honda Infiniti/Nissan low end brand. I suggested it be called Nikola though Elon will probably call in Dragon Falcon or Eco X.�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét