Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval They need to go from making 33,000 cars last year to being an actual manufacturer making 500,000 a year by 2020. Meanwhile we know that Volvo, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Aston, and especially Mercedes are all working hard on pure electric cars. God help us if Apple are really gonna enter the market.
I have no axe to grind. I have some Tesla shares and a Tesla X on order. I just thing it's about 50-50 whether things will work out as planned. Based on track record I assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 and not $35,000 and won't be on the market before 2020.
I just now see too many things that *could* upset the masterplan. Punters will not "stay loyal" to Tesla as a brand if something sexier appears at a 20% discount from Audi/Mercedes etc.�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval The Church of Tesla.
OK the $4,000 loss per car I agree is misleading. That's just the cash burn against cars sold. They are however still spending MORE than they EARN and even Elon is not predicting profitability under "normal accounting rules" before 2020. I appreciate you must invest to make money.......but my point is that much of the upcoming competition already have profitable car businesses with history, reputations and engineers that know how to make cars.
No way would I buy a Panamera over a Tesla S these days. The Panamera is an ugly dog compared - I know - it's what I drive whilst I wait for the Tesla X vapourware.
I just think Tesla should start getting worried about the competition and stop designing stuff like gullwing doors until they have cracked the market. It's clear for example that 90% of people would prefer 2nd row seats that go flat compared to daft rear doors (that are useless because the front doors are standard).�
Nov 25, 2015
S'toon What makes you think that they're just "dicking about?" Most of their engineers are now concentrating on the Model 3.
Most Tesla Engineers Now Working On Model 3: Executive
I know I know, I shouldn't be feeding...�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval From your link:
Oh great. That should speed things up nicely.
What he said.�
Nov 25, 2015
aronth5 How do you know the gullwing doors are pointless until we have some actual owner feedback and you have an opportunity to take the X for a test drive?
For all we know they may turn out to be exceedingly practical and Tesla is proven correct with this feature. I just think we need to wait before jumping to conclusions even though you may end up being correct. However that is a discussion for another time when we actually have real information from lots of owners.�
Nov 25, 2015
Marcos .
You agree it's misleading, yet you keep doubling down. Fact is, tesla has already cracked the market to the extent it needs to crack it. It's has continued to ramp up sales despite having no traditional marketing efforts. It has far more model x orders than it can hope to fulfill anytime soon.
Tesla's problem isn't demand, it's supply, and building that supply capability requires massive capital expenditures. Anyone who follows the company even half-assed understands this. If all tesla wanted was to be a luxury car manufacturer, then mission accomplished, it could pretty much be profitable today. But it has larger ambitions.
Let the the competition come! Not sure why that would be bad for Tesla. Infinity didn't put MB out of business, and Acura didn't put BMW out of business. In a car market as large as this world's, there is plenty of space for multiple players. The idea of a "Tesla killer" is patently absurd.
And yet it is Tesla that is turning the automotive industry on its head. Why? Because all the engineers in the world don't get you far if you are stuck in a rut. I mean, the idea of over-the-air updates is a no-brainier in the tech world. Yet here we have Germany and Detroit completely blindsided by the concept. In fact, all the big automakers are rushing to open up Silicon Valley outposts because that's where (generally speaking) the most innovative companies in the world and their armies of engineers reside.
"Vapor" is a hyped product that doesn't exist. Are you claiming that the Model X doesn't exist?
Do you have a source for that 90% stat, or are you just making stuff up? Seriously, Tesla has lots of challenges ahead of it, competition isn't one of them. And if competition really was one of those challenges, then the gulf-wing doors are precisely the kind of differentiator that would set it apart from that competition.
It it is precisely Musk's level of audacious risk-taking at has allowed Tesla to get to where it is today, and has left rival carmakers scrambling for a response.�
Nov 25, 2015
vandacca You know, I used to think that Tesla really needs to start getting their act together because the competition would pounce on them quickly. However, after a few years of waiting for the "competition", I'm starting to believe that the traditional automotive companies are too entrenched in the ICE business-model to be able to do anything. Talk about vapour ware. Only BMW has the i3 and i8. Everyone else is talking about coming out with a Tesla competitor in a few years. But no mention of super-charging, battery storage, solar collection, lower cost batteries, etc. Tesla is the only one that appears to be firing on all cylinders (forgive the pun).
I'm more interested to see what happens with the Chinese competitors and Apple. They don't have any legacy sales to worry about, so they can be bold and move more quickly. But Tesla has a pretty significant lead with the SuperChargers, GigaFactory, design/development, manufacturing, Solar City, Powerwall, software, etc. It would appear that all that spending has given them a pretty solid lead.
Even if one of these companies manages to get their act together and provide Tesla with a real challenge (BTW, this is my wish because I feel that it would force Tesla to stop screwing around and be more serious with their products and production schedules), Tesla is actually in the energy business too so they don't have to be 100% successful with their EVs. In fact, in order for these other companies to be competitive with Tesla, they would probably have to buy Tesla batteries and services, like Toyota, Daimler, etc.
You have to admit, a lot of people are trying to emulate the Tesla business model and design. There is a reason for that.�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval Get real. Toyota sold 9 Million cars last year. The waiting list for a "Morgan" car is around 7 years. That must mean the Morgans are like looooooaaads better than Toyotas?
Or could it be that Tesla only actually made 33,000 cars last year.........and errrrrr.......let me see.......6 Model X's this year I think at last count (or was it as many as 7).
No of course not. There are at least 6.
Of course I don't have "a stat" for that but after the September reveal everyone got their panties in a huge knot because the seats didn't go flat and nobody gave a rats arse about the weird doors.�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval Thank you fellah. I am not just trying to only diss Tesla. I have my name down for an X and I think it will be perfect as my next car......just be nice if they could start making some cars rather than doing these childish slow reveals. I mean they open the design studio for 20 people and the great unwashed all have to huddle round their monitors to see some fuzzy screenshots from strangers so we can find out the prices and specs. Like - is that for real??? Just stick the godamn configurator up live, release some prices, and have a proper reliable schedule for deliveries.
Hiding factory options with easter eggs? Pleaaaaaaaaseeee.
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That's the global market cracked then. Even that is comedy gold 'cos some nerd had to track down a VIN number to work out how many cars they made this month. It's all secret you know.
I have a mate down the pub whose sister's aunt knows the brother of a guy lives next to the Tesla factory and he says they made 37 Founders cars this month. So there.�
Nov 25, 2015
Ugliest1 First "90%", now "everyone". Maybe 90% of the TMC posters in the Seatgate thread were complaining; don't know, didn't count, got tired of reading about 4x8 sheets of plywood etc, but I'm sure the passionate complaining was only coming from a small percentage.�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval @Ugliest1 - I can tell you are a man that likes his stats properly 100% in order and not a hair outta line. My mum told me a billion times not to exaggerate.
p.s. I liked the poster earlier asking why anyone would buy an X and NOT have the 7 seats. Why would they possibly only want the 5 seats?�
Nov 25, 2015
Ugliest1 I exaggerate merely for the purpose of accuracy. And, I usually try not to let facts get in the way of my opinions.�
Nov 25, 2015
MikeC I fed him and ended up with a fallacy trifecta. Straw man, ad hominem, and appeal to emotion all in one post.�
Nov 25, 2015
Uncle Paul Not sure this criticism is deserved.
I understand that some would want 20,000 Model X's produced and in warehouses on the day of announcement, so everybody with a deposit could get theirs at the same time, however Tesla is in production constraints. They are pushing them out as fast as they can, however ramp up of this most difficult to manufacturer SUV is going to start up in dribs and drabs.
This is the same as with the Roadster and Model S. It takes longer for Tesla to put out these initial SUV's than it takes to type up a critical post.
Tesla is under the gun to make their production quotas, and I am sure they are all hands on deck ramping up production.
Best to hang back a bit this holiday season, and begin to give thanks for what Tesla has been able to achieve in the face of so many people that would want to see them fail.
Believe the Model X will be a huge hit in the marketplace. Just like every other vehicle produced by all the other manufacturers, it will not be the perfect vehicle for everybody, but for many it will fit the bill well enough.
Go Tesla!�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval Homer: Look Marge, I put these gullwing car doors (like on a sports car) onto our family car!
Marge: Gee Homer they look neat......what are they for?
Homer: It's so when you park in a really narrow space people can still get out the back of the car.
Marge: That's great Homer, but what about the driver, how does he get out?
Homer: Doh!�
Nov 25, 2015
engle Hey Johnny,
You sound like either a short or an ICE car dealer?
Please take this to the Tesla investment side of TMC:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/forumdisplay.php/119-TSLA-Investor-Discussions
This thread is for Tesla Production X configuration news and discussions thereof.
Thanks and have a great day!
�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval Nope. I am long of Tesla stocks, and have an X on order.�
Nov 25, 2015
MrBoylan 82.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot. Including that one. And yours, too. The falcon wing doors are what sealed the deal for me on the X. Coolest. Doors. Ever. They weren't specifically made to open in tight spaces (though they do that well). They were made so as to allow easier access to both the middle and rear row of seating. And from that respect they are clearly superior to a standard door or even a sliding minivan door. There are a lot of things they could change about the X after the original prototype reveal. Falcon Wing Doors wasn't one of them. Falcon Wing Door-Gate would have been much worse than folding-seat-gate.
Historically speaking, it doesn't seem like Tesla has to "worry about the competition" because they don't have any. For now, the Model S and Model X offer something you can't get on any other car: an electric car with over 200 miles of range that handles like a sports car, performs like a super car and fits a family of 7. Tesla doesn't invent things like Falcon Wing Doors just to be different. They invent them because they serve a specific need and are seriously cool. "Cool factor" plays a huge part in the Tesla design strategy and I hope they continue to do that as they finalize the Model 3. Don't clone what the competition is doing with a few incremental improvements, or just replace an ICE power train with an electric one. Look at what's out there, figure out how it can be better and go invent it.�
Nov 25, 2015
rdalcanto I can carefully open the driver's door and squeeze out without hitting the car next to me if necessary. My kids..., not so much!
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For those that have been able to configure - Have you noticed when you click on 20 inch vs 22 inch wheels and P90D version, are the 20 inch all-season tires or summer tires?
Thanks!�
Nov 25, 2015
engle That's great! Thanks for supporting TSLA. You live in Munich. What do you think about Audi's, BMW's and Daimler's efforts so far to compete?
Mods: Please feel free to move this to the investor side.
�
Nov 25, 2015
ecarfan The point being, of course, that to date the Germans have offered absolutely zero EVs that can compete with Tesla.�
Nov 25, 2015
rdalcanto And when Audi finally comes out with their EV in a few years, who will buy the first electric a company has ever made, with no experience in battery management or high power electric power trains and limited super charging options, over what Tesla will be offering at that point with years of refinement and 1,000,000 mile power trains?�
Nov 25, 2015
Aljohn There may be some who could go without the Falcon Wing Doors -- Gull Wing is different. There may be some that wish for or even require a folding bench seat. However, that number is no where near 90%. According to Model X tracker, 17 cancellation have been documented -- not bad out of an estimated 25-30K reservation. Currently, in the Premium Luxury Sedan market, Tesla is the leader and causing Mercedes, BMW and Audi to rethink their strategies. Now Tesla has the best accelerating Sedan and SUV in the premium segment. They are supply constrained, they sell all the Model S they can make after nearly 3 years in production. Not a bad problem to have.
Sure, they could eliminate the Falcon Wing Doors, put in a bench folding seat, leave off Auto Pilot and use a single 300 HP motor and would wind up producing a $80,000 MINI-VAN. The strategy is to take the high ground, where some early adopters are willing to pay a premium for uniqueness. They will get to the mundane with the Model III. I don't recall Elon saying no profit until 2020. The last I understood was 2016 -- Read the Credit Suisse estimate for 2016 -- Credit Suisse: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Stock Has 49% Upside | InvestorPlace. Unfortunately, we tend to focus on the instant profits, rather than long term strategies. Maybe that Strategy is the cause of our companies being less competitive around the world. IMO the long-term investment is a great strategy, with an eye on the short term as well.
I test drove the Model S twice (with and without Autopilot) and attended the launch of the Model X with a test ride. After 40 years of buying cars -- I have never experienced more innovative vehicles than Tesla manufacturers. I always ask, why do I want a new model when all I really have is a reworked model and a new car payment. Sure, you could buy a $75,000 SUV with no Falcon Wing Doors, and Folding Bench seats -- it's called a Cadillac Escalade or an updated 20 year old Chevy Suburban.�
Nov 25, 2015
mdevp
Are people taking this guy seriously? He's obviously a troll....just read over his comments, they are really quiet bizarre. And there is no way he has an X on order I'm sorry.�
Nov 25, 2015
johnnyduval With the huge amounts of screnshots generated by people trying to share information about their Tesla order I am sure you will not believe my screenshot below. But I can assure you I most certainly do have a Tesla X on order. Do you need to see my shares as well?
I don't see what is bizarre about my comments. I am not a troll by any means. I simply disagree (with an attempt at some humour) about the way Tesla are running parts of the operation.
I am also fully aware that Tesla currently have no competition and everyone is playing catch-up. Tesla has shown that it is possible to build a 200 mile+ electric only car, when everyone else was focused on hybrids. The others have been caught with their pants down for sure.
But talking of bizarre, I personally think many of the things Tesla are doing are looking bizarre from a customer relations viewpoint. At the moment they have a waiting list and can do no wrong, but I think there is too much arrogance in this position. I think Ford with his Model-T was in a similar dominant position years ago, he set the pace, but everyone caught him up.
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They only made 35,000 cars last year. Its the only fully electric car you can buy that goes further than the end of the street - of course they can sell 35,000.
Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk told an auto industry gathering the Silicon Valley auto maker will need until 2020 to be profitable on a basis that includes charges and executive compensation.
Mr. Musk, making a rare visit to Detroit during the city's annual auto show, said Tesla's Model 3 will need to be in full production mode by the end of the decade to meet the profit goal. The Model 3 is planned as a cheaper and less capable electric car slotted under the Model S sedan and forthcoming Model X SUV in Tesla's lineup.
Tesla wont turn profitable until 2020: Musk - MarketWatch�
Nov 26, 2015
ZachShahan Looks like someone is ripe for a warning and shortly thereafter a banning. Haven't seen so much uneducated (or manufactured) BS here in a while.
Not feeding this one.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval A warning and a banning? For what exactly? My views are not in line with yours?
There are other people that think the doors are not a great idea:
This Is Why The Gullwing Doors On The New Tesla Are Stupid - Business Insider
How The Tesla Model Xs Falcon Wing Doors May Well Ruin The Company
You don't actually have to agree with my opinion - but you want me banned for having one?�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill You won't get warned or banned, if you don't break the rules. Excuse some posters for being jaded - it's fairly common for new users who are unusually negative towards Tesla to eventually cross some line and get banned. It's the same story over and over.�
Nov 26, 2015
ecarfan Referencing such an ill-informed and deliberately exaggerated article (with a click bait title) does not lend credence to your position regarding the Falcon Wing doors.
Your frequent use of hyperbole and gross exaggeration also does not help you. I believe I can understand some of your criticisms of Tesla, but the inflammatory way you present them is obviously going to result in strong reactions against your position, which then leads to heated exchanges where little is accomplished other than ill will on both sides.
I recommend that you tone down your language and seek to have a constructive discussion of your concerns.
Consider this: word your posts as if you were face-to-face in the real world with other members of TMC. In such a situation I hope your choice of words would be more courteous.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval Just wait until I tell them I don't believe in global warming..........:wink:
I hear you @ecarfan - I have been on forums before. I just wasn't quite expecting the immediate over-defensive responses, so came back with some slightly more feisty comments.
I am not saying I agree with the links I posted - I was just making the point that the internet is a big world and I am NOT the only person that thinks the gullwing doors are a *questionable* feature, or that the release of information from Tesla is *not ideal*, or that the Tesla promises have not always been *100% reliable*.
(nice enough?)�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill "Only" 35k is pretty good when considering the original target for the Model S was 20k/year. And this year that figure will be 50-52k, next year 80-90k. ~50% annual growth is considered pretty good in most industries.
"Profitable" is a less relevant metric than "cash-flow positive", though both are fudgible by increasing/lowering investments. The latter will happen in Q1 2016, and ensures that Tesla will continue to invest in continually improving their products and increasing sales. And then higher sales means more profits, which means more funds available for investment. Going from one gigafactory to ten gigafactories can be pretty quick.�
Nov 26, 2015
svp6 In retrospect, I wish they did standard doors on model X - if I remember correctly, getting the doors right was one of the reasons production got delayed. They are sure cool, though...
There was a comment earlier on who will buy the first electric car from Audi since they have no track record. This is a little funny, did we not all get an electric car from a company that never produced anything in large scale before model S? I sure did, have no regrets. If Audi finally gets a decent car out there, I am sure there will be enough buyers.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval This depends on which side of the fence you currently sit. If everything Tesla does is perfect in your eyes then the doors are awesome and did not add any delay to the project. If you are a heretic then the doors delayed things for probably a year, and cost huge amounts in engineer time, wages and effort. Something delayed the launch by over 2 years so if it wasn't partly the doors then what was it?
Another heretic. They are gonna run out of seats in hell for us pretty soon. You can buy a new electric Tesla because it is Tesla, but a new electric Audi would be madness as those guys have no track record in building electric cars.
Hey it's fine. I understand the model. I am not saying they are going bust tomorrow. I am just saying that because Tesla is a one-trick pony at the time of writing (they have 1 car in production, hopefully another next year) and they have a non-profitable cash-burn business model then they are in a riskier position than someone like Toyota or Mercedes. You might not like the facts - but that is how it is.�
Nov 26, 2015
JohnSnowNW Other people have mentioned this too, but we wouldn't have bought the X without the Falcon doors. It was a requirement that the 3rd row be accessible with car seats in the 2nd.
I think more people would not have bought a Model X with a sliding door, than would without access to the 3rd row, IMHO.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval You know nothing John Snow. (sorry could not resist that one)
Hmmmmmm. So if you wouldn't have bought the X without falcon doors, and we know there is no other car on the market with those doors........errrr........would you have just caught the bus in future and not have a car anymore? As there is no other option?
p.s. No reason for a sliding door. Stuff like the X5, Cayenne, Tourag all just have normal doors.�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill In all probability, the Model X simply wasn't a priority for the first couple of years, as they had more than enough demand for the Model S alone. The Model X project just floated along with minimal oversight. Then in 2014, the management determines that it would be good to start delivering the Model X in 2015, so more firm deadlines are set. Suddenly, they are in a hurry, and there are many different challenges remaining to be resolved. The doors, the 2nd row seats, the windscreen, etc - none have a production-ready design, and there's thousands and thousands of hours worth of design and testing remaining. So, they do their best to get to a production ready design as quickly as possible, but there remains a gap between what's possible to achieve and the stated goals, so there are further delays and they have to cut out the fat and focus on the essentials. The latter can also be called cutting corners.
And that's where we are today. With non-folding 2nd row seats, a charger with less functionality than intended, and almost no new features compared to the Model S (no autopilot 2.0, for instance). It's unfortunate that this is the result, but they will work on eliminating the weaknesses, and a year from now, everyone will have forgotten these issues.�
Nov 26, 2015
ecarfan I am glad you hear me, but given your stated experience with online forums am somewhat surprised that you did not anticipate how your choice of language would result in equally agitated responses. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, to quote someone much wiser than I.
On the internet one can always find at least a few people taking extreme positions, but that does not validate such positions.
Yes, and thank you for that. Now if we can maintain that tone, we can have a civil discussion. [emoji3]�
Nov 26, 2015
traxila This. In early 2013 when the demand for the S spiked and they had production / quality issues, I prayed they would kick the X to the side and focus everything on the S. This was despite my Sig X reservation. And they did! Because they get it. If they had split their resources at the time, the chance of wholesale failure would have gone up dramatically.
More cool electric cars by different manufacturers will only expand the nascent market. I believe legacy car makers face a huge challenge, one perhaps as large as what Tesla appears to have overcome. A decade from now pundits will be lining about to discuss how obvious everything that happened was (carmakers going bust) and why did they sit on their hands like Kodak? This is not a problem for Tesla. I am still waiting for those cool cars to exist outside of press releases...
Tesla is cranking right now. When the gigafactory goes live doubters will start falling away in droves.
Tesla has not executed perfectly, but there were few scenarios in 2012 that led to their present existence so give credit where it is due.�
Nov 26, 2015
vandacca Tesla is not a perfect company, nor does it try to be. Elon doesn't appear to be afraid of making mistakes, and when he does, he quickly tries to fix it. Tesla has shown the ability to quickly pivot and address issues/mistakes as necessary. For example, the onboard AC charger and the folding seats. It's precisely the fear of failing that has paralyzed the traditional automotive manufacturer into doing nothing for so long.
However, when it comes to the falcon doors, I'm reserving judgement until I have been using them for a few months. They do look cool, but I'm an understated type of guy and I don't like to drive around in a flashy car. My wife would be embarrassed to open those doors at the grocery store. I've been indifferent about the doors until now, but I do admit that they may have a potential to be huge. I like to compare them to the iPad. When Steve Jobs announced the iPad, no one got it and it was ridiculed by all the tech journalist. But once consumers started using it, everyone understood the impact and it was a huge success. So much so, that consumers don't feel the need to upgrade them every year and it has caused a drop in sales due to quickly reaching a saturation point.
The falcon doors may provide the functionality of a mini-van sliding door without the ugly, boxy look. No one today can predict if the falcon doors will be a hit or miss. We will have to wait until it's in consumer's hands before we know if it was a good or bad idea. I'm leaning towards it being a hit, but I'll be the first to point out when Tesla missteps. Not because I want them to fail, but because I want them to succeed.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval @traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.
Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.
I was afraid to comment on this myself for fear of being gunned down in a hail of forum bullets. But I was also wondering if I could train the kids to enter the car from the boot so that I wouldn't have those doors going up and down in public. Too much like wearing gold chains for my personal tastes......but will be fine in a couple of years once everyone has tired of seeing them.�
Nov 26, 2015
traxila Wish they would get to it. The EV market has plenty of room for everyone that dares to go there with real product. Still the fact remains, Tesla has a huge head start and will catastrophically fail only if they make very bad mistakes, imho. If I had to bet, I would put a lot more money on Tesla emerging as a dominant manufacturer rather than failing at this point. Wait a minute, I already have!
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It is hard to understand how much of a bubble we live in. I know I have a very hard time with it. I believe the vast majority of the US still does not know Tesla exists. The falcon wing doors are brilliant for this reason. EVERYONE that sees them in the wild will remember this car and want to know what is going on... And then comes Model III.�
Nov 26, 2015
vandacca The copy-cats have already started, but not from the legacy car makers. There are 2-3 new Chinese manufactures (plus Apple) that are coming out with Tesla 'clones'. The problem with the clones however, is that they are not likely to have gone into the detail that Tesla has. It's not just an EV that Tesla is building, it's a whole-solution. Everything from Solar panels, battery storage, super-chargers, service stations, show rooms, giga factory, etc. It's not something that can be easily duplicated.
And I haven't even mentioned anything yet about the research and development they've done in battery management, motors, auto pilot, software, etc.
And I agree that in a few years when the novelty wears off, I'll be fine with opening those falcon doors in public.�
Nov 26, 2015
Ugliest1 There I fixed that up for you�
Nov 26, 2015
EarlyAdopter The moment that Audi or BMW produces a 200+ mile all electric sedan or SUV it won't be taking sales away from Tesla, it will be taking sales away from Audi and BMW's internal combustion sedans and SUVs. That's why they are dragging their heels on getting one to market.
Also, ever notice how every time a traditional car company announces some future coming electric car the headlines all call it a "Tesla killer." Interesting, because it implies that their existing cars aren't.�
Nov 26, 2015
JohnSnowNW We would have bought a van, and hated it.
As to the X5, Cayenne, and Tourag....they don't meet the requirement of easy access to the 3rd row with car seats installed...or access at all to a 3rd row.�
Nov 26, 2015
CarlK The legacy car makers will (have to) be copycats too. For instance I actually think companies from Porsche to Range Rover are having engineering teams to study the falcon wing door now. If they are smart enough they should have realized that no company will be able to sell a $100K SUV without one in the future when people got a taste of it. It's really a fantastic design that is sexy and practical at the same time. There will be no more excuses like it does not work in tight places or it's hard to make or it's too costly to do since Tesla has alrady done it. They need to get it on theirs before the Koreans incorporate the design in their SUV's costing much less which I'm sure will happen too.
These companies will forever be copycats from this point on. While they are studying Tesla's battery/motor technology and falcon wing door and perhaps able to come up with something similar in 2~3 years Tesla is already working on some even greater ideas for future products that we don't even know yet. I can list probably a dozen significant new things Tesla has done from Superchagers to the gigafactory to the insane/ludicrous acceleration to the auto pilot to the rad X design (FWD, pano-windshield, single pole seats) no one knew about just three years ago. Tell me which CEO of any of these legacy companies is even remotely close to Elon as a visionary? People who think Tesla will just be standing still and let others to catch up do not know what they are talking about. Those legacy/copycat companies have no cat in hell's chance of surpassing Tesla.
100000% agree. That's why BMW is making the i3 so ugly that no one who are looking for a 3 series would be interested, or the i8 so expensive that no one could "only" afford a regular BMW could afford one. This is typical that it takes a new company to implement the disruptive technology. It's very hard for legacy companies to part with their lucrative markets, not the least is CEO's job is on the line for the financial performance, but the truth is always if you don't want to cannibalize your product someone else will do it for you. There are very few cases in the business history that a legacy company is willing to disrupt their own business. How the rest ended up from Kodak to Blockbuster are all very well known for people who study business.�
Nov 26, 2015
PeterK @johnnyduval, If they enter through the "boot" you still have a tailgate door going up and down, plus kids looking foolish climbing over seats. Just as auto tailgates and powered minivan doors drew attention initially then became everyday, falcon wings will do the same.
Followers can copy innovators but innovators learn more and faster, especially Tesla who get direct customer interaction without the dealer firewall, and get tons of data and now autopilot learning feedback direct from the cars. And while Tesla is a startup they've been focused on this area for 12 years, with product on the market for 7. That's a big head start over companies whose deepest engineering expertise is in internal combustion engines and transmissions.
Everyone talks about traditional competition but if Frankfurt is an example I wouldn't hold my breath. You and other TMC members are busy complaining about Falcon wing door-driven delays, non-folding seats and 48A chargers while Audi's Model X contender, the Q6 e-tron will be slower and seat only 4, and won't be available until 2018. As an Audi fan and former owner of three of their cars, I am disappointed - I want to see more Tesla competition and a faster transition to EVs. I hope that the recently unveiled VW "clean diesel" fraud will drive them to take real actions in EVs.
Finally Tesla has been selling far more Model S than originally projected so the Model X delays haven't hurt as much financially as many think. And 2016 will be a good year with X, Gigafactory production and Powerwall sales kicking in.
Tesla is far from flawless but considering all the odds and establishment forces stacked against them they are doing phenomenally. They take risks and learn quickly from mistakes. As a shareholder, S and future X owner, and father concerned about the future of our planet, I am pulling for them and thankful for the efforts of all at Tesla.
Here are two links a lot more fact-based and interesting than the two you posted. Enjoy, and happy thanksgiving to those who celebrate it.
Yipes! Watch out Tesla! Move over Tesla! | TeslaMondo
How Tesla Will Change The World - Wait But Why�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval My attempts at light humour really are falling on stoney ground.
Yup. That is my point. The odds are against them. Those are YOUR words not mine.
That is why I see their longterm future around 50-50 for survival. The current cars are a rich mans plaything......they are totally unaffordable for 99% of the population.
The real question is whether they can produce a mass market car, on time, and at an affordable price BEFORE somebody else.
Imagine a scenario whereby the Tesla 3 series hits the streets in 2020 at $45,000 but at the same time Faraday Future, or Toyota, or Honda, or Audi or whoever produce something *similar* but at $32,000. Strong brand names can of course defy gravity on pricing (Giffin goods if you will) but that is NOT a strategy on which to base your company.
I think the average man in the street will take the $32,000 option.
Donald Trump eat your heart out.�
Nov 26, 2015
SebastianR I really wished, somebody would copy them: that would validate the business model. And eventually, every additional electric car on the road is one less fuel driven car which is great. And it would pressure the laggards of the car makers into moving their heavy behinds.
I'm currently driving an Audi. It's an ok car, the wife likes it. But you have no idea how frustrated, angry, upset, disillusioned, and disappointed I am with these idiots from Ingolstadt: I asked my dealer many times for a full electric Audi A6 Kombi and all I hear is "buy our A3 eTron" - what a joke! So all they can do is to announce one hundred million electric cars that they will deliver at some point but nothing that can compete with a Tesla of 2012 - And if I mention Tesla, my dealer gets all soft and whiny and begs me to not buy a Tesla - what a wimp!
It is clear to me that my next car will be electric. If that's still going to be a German car or not, depends on the Germans and if they have a compelling offer. Right now, it does not look good for them at all (and this after having only owned German cars in the 20 years I have driven).
PS: If I say "all they can do", I was not fair: they can also defraud, cheat, and lie on their "Vorsprung durch Technik" emissions engineering - since they have not enough "German engineering" in their company to actually pass the soft, weak and watered down legislation that they themselves lobbied for - Saubande!�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval VW have been very naughty......but everyone else has been at the game, just they have been a little more subtle in their technique.
�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill Here in Norway Teslas are mostly bought by the middle class. But I agree they are too expensive for the middle class most places.
I would have said their chances were 50-50 back in 2014. Now I'd say that the chance that Tesla will survive in some form is closer to 90%. Tesla has been increasing their head start in recent years. Still, really the only automotive battery company besides Tesla/Panasonic is LG Chem (plus BYD, but they'll likely use all the batteries they produce in their own products). Unless LG Chem scales up massively ASAP, LG Chem has enough batteries for *maybe* two other BEV manufacturers with equivalent volume to Tesla. What will the 10-ish other large car companies do? Start a bidding war for the cells from LG Chem? Take 5 years to build their own battery plants?
The companies that have failed to secure their battery supply will find themselves between a rock and a hard place in 5-10 years. Tesla is one of the companies that won't find themself in that situation.
I agree.
The big question is if Tesla can deliver on time and price for the Model 3 (35k USD, 2017). And I think they can. The Model 3 is *the* priority at Tesla. Without the Model 3, the company won't be able to grow, and their head start will wither.
It's true the Roadster, Model S and Model X have been delayed, but we're talking about widely different reasons, none of which are applicable now. The Roadster was the first car they ever made, and it was obviously a learning experience. With the Model S, they needed a production facility, which took time and money, plus they had challenges with funding at times. The Model X was a low priority, because it wasn't needed.
For the Model 3, they have the experience, they (mostly) have the production apparatus, they have the funding, and they have the will. Not to mention a global sales network, a global charging network and a devoted fanbase. Everything is lined up for success.�
Nov 26, 2015
SebastianR Let's call a spade a spade: VW has committed fraud. It is not about being "naughty", they committed fraud plain and simple. If you can pass emission testing with all the little (disgusting but legal) tricks, so be it. But they couldn't even do that. I hate how so many Germans are making excuses for VW and how they belittle the issue - we used to be a country that would stand by its words, was honest and took pride in actual achievements.
I also hate Audi for leaving me in the dark as to if my car is affected or not - every day there is a new revelation and to date Audi refuses to confirm to me that my car is free of fraud. Again, Saubande, elendige!�
Nov 26, 2015
ecarfan Thank you for posting that link, what a hilarious compilation of "Look Out Tesla / Move Over Tesla / Watch Out Tesla" announcements of mythical EVs from other companies! I have become heartily sick of that type of headline in the past few years. Over 90% of the announced EVs don't exist yet, the exceptions being the Leaf, i3, and a couple of others like the Cadillac that flopped.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval The Nissan Leaf.......that will be the #1 best selling electric car in the world you are talking about?
The #1 selling car in Norway.......due to heavy subsidies from the Norwegian government using their oil wealth. Bit ironic really.�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill The Leaf is the best-seller in number, not in USD-value or kWh battery capacity. There's more than one metric.
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It has been the best selling car some months. Now it's the e-Golf. The market is really starved for a long range Golf-segment BEV i.e. the Model 3.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval I am really getting confused as I thought that Tesla was the only company capable of making a functional 100% electric car and yet the #1 seller currently is a Nissan. It's so hard to keep up.
So the rules are that we only count electric cars based on how many US$$$ they cost? I missed that in the forum smallprint. I can totally see how for the green upkeep of the planet it is important we measure in $$ sales values. Let's hope for the sake of the planet that Porsche sell loads of those Mission E things for $200,000 each.�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill Nissan is one of the few companies that sees where the future is, and I applaud them for it. But Tesla is the biggest BEV company, in terms of revenue.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval By the way.........these free Tesla superchargers for the life of the car. Who pays for all that in future?
So this website is wrong:
10 Biggest Electric Car Battery Manufacturers Are... | CleanTechnica
They say Mitsubishi and AESC are bigger than LG Chem.
Edit: Amusingly the data above comes from the dude at post #26 who wants me banned for being a meanie about Tesla.�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill Tesla Motors. We're talking about fairly small costs which are easily covered by the sales revenue.
If the automotive sales-part of the operation were to fail, all that would mean is that they would need to increase profit in the service centers to pay for the superchargers.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval That will be the small costs they are unwilling to disclose in their financial figures?
Questions Musk Needs to Answer about the Tesla Superchargers | Market Mad House�
Nov 26, 2015
Yggdrasill AESC = Nissan. Nissan is going to get their cells from LG Chem going forward. LG Chem was cheaper and better than their own batteries.
And LG Chem has large existing factories that will ramp up at a moments notice. (Just look at production numbers for 2014.) Mitsubishi isn't in the same league.
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Why should Tesla disclose every little detail? I don't need to know how much Tesla uses on toothpicks or whatever.
The total cost for the electricity for lifetime access to the supercharger network should on average be somewhere in the area of $500, or ~$50/year. With 100k Teslas sold, that works out to around 1.25 million USD per quarter. Peanuts.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval Bonnie will get Model X #2 sometime in 2016 so will be at least 100,002�
Nov 26, 2015
PeterK Not for being a meanie about Tesla, but for in general acting like a troll (some choice words come to mind but I'll take the high road) whose goal is not to have a productive discussion about Tesla but instead to provoke any and all who dare to respond to you.
You ignore all salient points and facts that contradict your arguments, then twist words or seize on something random or out of context to offend someone else. Like the sudden introduction of the Leaf topic - no one had compared Tesla to Leaf but you decided to pick a fight on it. And you support your points such as they are with questionable articles.
Clearly productive discussion with you is impossible. Enough feeding the troll.�
Nov 26, 2015
EarlyAdopter This thread really needs to be moved to the Investment section.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval You sir are the one that accused me of talking "BS". I might live in Germany but am quite aware that in fact means "********" to everyone that speaks English in the known Universe. So don't take the moral high ground on polite language.
Huh? The dude in the post ABOVE mine was the first to mention the Leaf!!! It wasn't me. I just asked for clarification that he was referring to the Nissan Leaf that is the #1 selling electric car in the world.....which just happens to be......um.....a fact.
And if you keep calling me a "Troll" I will have to start using the "Tesla Fanboy" word.
Sorry. I assume you are referring to my link to your website? Should I edit my post?�
Nov 26, 2015
PeterK Just a final clarification - I am not zachshahan and never accused you of BS nor do I have a website.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval OK well that is just confusing. You leapt to the defence of the guy I mentioned at post #26.......but actually you have nothing at all to do with him?
My apologies but it did make things very confusing!!!
p.s. But you do keep calling me a "troll" and you did get it wrong about the Nissan Leaf.
Actually I think there have been some thought provoking and interesting responses here today. The debating style may not be to your more formal style of prose, but this is a "stray posts" thread according to the mods......there seem to be plenty more threads on this forum more akin to your own literary tastes.�
Nov 26, 2015
bwa I wasn't loyal to begin with. If I get my first EV from someplace else, I'd be happy. I want an EV that is safe, decent, looks decent, acts decent, drives well, and doesn't insult my sensibilities. Right now Tesla is the ONLY one doing that. (Leaf isn't safe, and its range is not enough. Otherwise I'd have one already.)
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That's why I think property, fixture, equipment, inventory, etc., taxes in USA are created by foreign interests controlling our government, because it reduces our manufacturing capabilities in this country. I think it's awesome when factories are underutilized. I think I'm the only one. I've always hated the movement towards pop-up exact-size temporary factories as a way to deplete US manufacturing assets. Let the marketplace clean up cruft, and tell the government to go to hell.�
Nov 26, 2015
goneskiian Nothing to add here. Just enjoying the back and forth.�
Nov 26, 2015
mikeash Why do you assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 based on Tesla's track record? Both the Model S and X came in at the promised price. I can totally see thinking the 3 will be *late*, because everything has been late. But blowing out the promised price by that much? I just see no basis for saying that.�
Nov 26, 2015
CarlK No it won't be $60K. Many people seem to forget you could actually buy a large luxury sedan from Tesla at $60K even 3 years ago when 40kWh model was still offered. Tesla should be able to do much better than that in five years time frame with gigafactory and all that.
I believe the stripped down bare minimum base model will be $35K. Elon has made that promise many times I'm sure he will keep that promise just like he kept the pricing promise of the MX. Can't say how stripped down that would be but you should be able to buy a Model 3 at $35K if youw want to. A reasonably equiped one would probably be costing $40~50K and that will probably be what most people buy. The performance model can certainly cost much higher just like what S and X is.�
Nov 26, 2015
S'toon First of all, they're a private corporation. They don't have to reveal everything. Secondly, Seeking Alpha doesn't have a good reputation around. Third:
Full article at:
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-cost-of-providing-supercharging-immaterial/
Also:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/08/26/what-does-providing-free-charging-cost-tesla-motor.aspx�
Nov 26, 2015
mikeash Yep, I've had that conversation before. "Whine whine whine, Tesla promised us a $60k Model S!" Yeah, and they had it, it was the 40. It disappeared because almost nobody bought it, but they delivered on their promise.
More fun is "Whine whine whine, Tesla promised us a $50k Model S!" Which is true, but that number was counting Federal and California tax credits, so they hit that too.
Model X was promised at $5k above the Model S for the same options, and they've hit that too.
If the S and X are any guide, the 3 will actually start at $35k, the minimum 3 most people would want to buy will probably start at more like $40-45k, and a maxed-out one will be around $70-80k.�
Nov 26, 2015
johnnyduval Tesla Motors is a public company that trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the symbol TSLA.
I need to adjust my writing style as everyone on this forum seems to take every word literally?
No, I don't think the Model X is vaporware....just teasing.
No, I am not gonna teach my kids to crawl through the boot to avoid using the gullwing doors.
No, I am aware they are actually called Falcon doors really.
No, I don't think the 3 Series will really cost $60,000 in its cheapest form.....but I do think you will end up paying nearer $50,000 to get something without
grants, tax rebates and with a decent battery etc.
I am just trying to show my frustration as I think there is a little too much "bait and switch" going on. For example the Model X. Sure there is a hypothetical $80,000 Model X you can buy - but actually you can't, because stocks for 2016 are sold out and when they say "late 2016" everybody on this forum knows you ain't gonna see one of those $80,000 babies anytime before 2017.
Now I am NOT an expert on following this stuff, but pretty sure someone here mentioned that Tesla promised 7 seats as standard but it is now a $4,000 option. By going back on that and offering a 5 seat option they can hit the "like-for-like-but-only-5k-more" promise compared to an S.�
Nov 27, 2015
MrBoylan There have been many unofficial communications about the seating on the X over time. First it was standard, then it was going to be optional. Then when the Sigs got access to the design studio, 7 seats was the only option and it was listed as "standard" which many of us assumed meant that it would be a standard feature on production as well. The 6-seat option was added a few days later (for Sigs). But it wasn't until the first production reservation holders got access to the design studio a couple of weeks ago that we saw that the 6-seat and 7-seat options would cost more. Musk hinted at this in the Q3 results call. "5K over a comparably equipped Model S, same number of seats..." It sucks for those of us who were hoping that they would be included in the base price, but it wasn't a complete surprise.
The only real surprise (for me at least) was that the 90D would have air suspension included (instead of an optional feature), so the base price was higher than expected from that respect. But if you were planning on getting the air suspension anyway, then it wasn't a big shock (no pun intended).
-CB�
Nov 27, 2015
johnnyduval From an old post
Ooops. But they did indicate at that time the extra seats were an "option" so I don't have an issue with that.
Fortunately due to my obviously abrasive nature 5 seats is approx 4 seats more than I will ever need.�
Nov 27, 2015
mikeash Initially you said, "Based on track record I assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 and not $35,000...." How the F are we supposed to take that besides literally?
Why is this wrong? The Model S has 5 seats. Like for like would naturally match that. I assumed the like-for-like would include third-row seats in the S and pano roof, so the $80,000 base price is actually better than expected. There is some wiggle room as to exactly which S options would be included when comparing prices to an X, and they've hit the lowest point on that.�
Nov 27, 2015
CarlK The optional seats in X are way better than those in the S. $3000-4000 is a pretty reasonable price to pay. One can always choose the 5 seat configuration which would be more or less the same as in the S and pay no extra. The $5000 difference covers falcon wing door, pano-windshield, both S do not have, and the bigger body. No one can accuse pricing of the X is not appropriate. All Tesla didn't do is to give you something for nothing which as a business it should not need to do anyway.�
Nov 27, 2015
johnnyduval Because it is a sarcastically higher figure. Maybe I should have said $6,000,000 and then it would have been more obvious? Clearly its not gonna be $60,000.�
Nov 27, 2015
S'toon Nope. Tesla always talked about 7 seats being an option, not standard. I can post stories going back years that said that. Some people saw that the maxed out Founders and Signature editions came with 7 seats and assumed they were standard.�
Nov 27, 2015
Yggdrasill Let me introduce you to a novel new concept, emoticons: :smile::wink::biggrin:
Also, some recommended reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law�
Nov 27, 2015
SebastianR I think this is something we can safely agree on: If you diminutively call wilful and deliberate fraud in millions of cases "being naughty" when it relates to a German company yet you defame an existing Tesla car as "vapoware" you project that you apply double standards in your judgement. Say what you want about Tesla, at least they are not as criminal as Audi & VW seem to be.�
Nov 27, 2015
mikeash Well then, yes, you really need to work on your writing. Nothing about that looks anything like sarcasm to me. Saying "the Model 3 will cost $60,000" is not such an absurd statement that I can't imagine anyone would state it seriously. In fact, it sounds exactly like the sort of thing I'd expect a Tesla detractor to say, and mean it too.�
Nov 27, 2015
ecarfan Here is a something I suggest that you keep in mind when you post: your words will most likely be taken literally because readers do not know you personally, are not speaking to you face to face so cannot pick up on visual clues or mannerisms, and therefore are likely to take your words at face value.
You have received a lot of negative reactions in this thread because of your frequent use of exaggerations, hyperbole, and wildly off the mark characterizations. Yet you persist in doing so, all the while criticizing your audience for failing to understand you. There is a lesson there...�
Nov 27, 2015
johnnyduval Is it don't knock Tesla on a Tesla worship forum?�
Nov 27, 2015
MrBoylan Finally some common ground.�
Nov 27, 2015
johnnyduval I didn't add a smilie when I wrote that comment so I would just like to state for the record that my comment was in fact an attempt at humour. I did not LITERALLY mean I wished to purchase a single seater Tesla. Just sayin.�
Nov 27, 2015
rdalcanto You can "image" such a scenario, but it will never happen. The biggest cost of an electric vehicle with a 200+ mile range is the battery. Nobody will be able to match Tesla's cost on batteries because the other auto makers will have to compete against each other to buy them from a 3rd party supplier that is trying to maximize its own profits. There is also the issue that an EV is superior to an ICE in almost every way. If other car companies offer a 200+ mile vehicle with 0-60 in under 6 seconds for $32,000 they will never sell another one of their ICE products again, and they can't afford to do that. Your attempts to poke holes in Tesla and to try to envision how other companies will beat them at their own game is falling flat. I do appreciate it though because it shows me just how strong Tesla's position is, and it shows me that the 3,000+ shares of stock I own are not enough. So thank you!�
Nov 27, 2015
Marcos Plenty of people can make well-reasoned critical posts on this forum, and do so all the time. Even in this "Tesla worshipping forum". Problem is, you haven't, pulling out old discredited canards like "Tesla loses $4,000 on every sale" and then saying "just kidding" or "don't take me literally" every time you're called on it.
I mean, Musk himself said that perhaps the X shouldn't have been as complicated as it ended up, and has pinned many of the delays on its doors and--even more so--the middle-row seats. But if that was your argument, it got lost in a sea of invective and a refusal to use language as intended--not necessarily literally, but understandably. Sarcasm and hyperbole lose all power when no one can detect it. And if no one picks up on it, the problem isn't your audience, the problem is you.
But let me respond to the argument I THINK you are making--that the X was too complex and Tesla would've been served by simplifying things.
Fact is, the X is a detour to the company's ultimate goal--its mass-market 3. The S has garnered huge headlines by virtue of its power, range, and auto-pilot. The X had to build on that hype and continue to build Tesla's brand cachet, and Musk decided to do so with the falcon-wing doors. They are insanely eye-grabbing, and expect crowds wherever Xs show up in the wild. It's a thought that makes me cringe, as I'm an introvert, but it'll be the best marketing a car company can ever hope for--wonder.
As you yourself have pointed out, more competition is on its way, so what will drive greater brand awareness, a RAV4-looking CUV that happens to be electric, or the HOLY SMOKES WHAT IS THAT effect that the X will generate? If you want a car company that simply swaps out drivetrains of existing cars, then Tesla isn't for you. If that's what you want, you might as well wait for everyone to catch up. Or at least offer an electric variant of the same-ol', same-ol'.
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Imagine a scenario where no one can meet that $32,000 target because they can't procure the batteries at scale or at that price. Imagine a scenario where the world blows up and there's no one around to buy Teslas! We can throw out random scenarios all day long, not sure how that advances the conversation. If it was that easy to build a cheap electric car, people would be doing it already. Tesla has had to build an entire massive battery factory to get the necessary scale. No one else is doing the same at this time.
But aside from making up fake imagined threats, there is another problem with your argument: if people bought on price alone, high-priced cars wouldn't exist, or iPhones, or fancy restaurants, or first-class seats. It's easy to see Tesla commanding a price premium based on brand halo and loyalty, supercharger network, superior technology, and superior car quality. I mean, tesla is already crushing the incumbents on safety, something that powered Volvo sales for generations.
We we can come up with alternate scenarios all day long--the most likely I could see is Apple pulling off their car and eating into Tesla's natural customer base--but for now, the most obvious scenarios all have Tesla enjoying incredible first-mover advantages and a level of innovation objectively unmatched by any other incumbent car maker.�
Nov 27, 2015
S'toon If you hang around long enough you'll find that there's a LOT of criticism of Tesla on this board. You just haven't posted any legitimate criticism yet.�
Nov 27, 2015
ecarfan I was trying to be polite, and I will continue to make an effort in that regard, but this time will explicitly state the "lesson" after reiterating the following:
You have received a lot of negative reactions in this thread because of your frequent use of exaggerations, hyperbole, and wildly off the mark characterizations. Yet you persist in doing so, all the while criticizing your audience for failing to understand you.
So the lesson is; when presenting your point of view, avoid gross exaggeration and hyperbole, instead focus on clarity of language and factual statements while avoiding demeaning remarks belittling your intended audience.�
Nov 27, 2015
pmadflyer I am so jealous right now. Not really jealous, but I wish I could be in possession of that many shares. I think the closest I'll get to owning TSLA for a while is the model 3, after student loans, but wow!�
Nov 27, 2015
johnnyduval Wow. Did I actually see someone back up their argument by boasting that they owned $750,000 of Tesla stocks. Really?
As it would not have been sufficient to say "its shows me that the shares of stock I own are not enough" and left it like that?
I feel embarrassed just reading that.
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You had me at hello. I was indeed fully aware what you meant by "the lesson" the first time you wrote it. My retort was a quip.�
Nov 28, 2015
stopcrazypp There have been naysayers that claim the Model 3 will end up costing $60k not $35k. Your claim was exactly like those naysayers, to the dollar:
https://www.inverse.com/article/8010-analyst-predicts-elon-musk-s-tesla-model-3-might-cost-60-000-not-35-000�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Being sensible for a moment, the problem with the discussions here are people are dressing up opinions as facts. I have been throwing around some "what if" scenarios - and they are hardly "what if a meteor fell on Califonia" but people seem to have their fixed opinions and will twist the limited facts to suit their argument.
We will not know if Tesla is a success or failure as an EV manufacturer until a few years down the road, unless you want to declare them a success now in 2015 which would seem a little premature with 100,000 of their cars on the road and not being profitable. I am not sure what the measure of "success" is exactly but perhaps something like selling the 500,000 per annum target and being profitable? We will not know that until 2020 and beyond so everything discussed on this forum about the future is by definition speculation.
There ARE some current facts such as "Tesla has sold 100,000 cars" and then people are adopting these facts to argue their own case. If you are bullish about Tesla then the 100,000 sales is a fantastic achievement, it proves they have cracked all the problems, it proves viability etc. If you are a doubter then 100,000 sales in 5 years proves the cars are fiendishly difficult to make, that they are very expensive to build and sell, and that the EV market is tiny. There is some merit to both of these arguments.......but of course everyone sticks too firmly to one side or the other.
I am actually playing the Devil's Advocate here because this is a forum for discussion and speculation. If it was only facts I wanted then I would go and read the shareholders report. I have a Tesla X on order and am looking forward to delivery. It is not going to be a perfect car but I think a great option for me. Would be nice to know what it is going to cost in �uros and to see specifications direct from Tesla rather than via a forum.....I find that side of their marketing rather frustrating and frankly amateurish.
I also find it frustrating that people here are dressing up their speculations as FACTS. Here are a few choice examples I will quickly cut and paste from this thread:
It seems if the poster writes in a more formal and verbose manner that it is permissable to dress up your speculation as fact and it is instantly accepted. Ideally if you can add the value of your personal shareholdings and the exact model of Tesla you already own then this also adds validity to your posts and turns a speculation into a fact.
I shall henceforth endeavour to adopt a more grandiloquent style to offset my earlier griffonage.�
Nov 28, 2015
rdalcanto Good morning Johnny! It's hard to have a debate with someone who is on a significantly different time zone....
Have you owned a Tesla yet, or will the X be your first? I ask because I bought my first Tesla in early 2013 to replace my Porsche 911S (991 series). I was immediately blown away by how much better the Tesla was than the Porsche. I immediately started learning more about Elon and the company, and realized that I was close to ground zero on the next Microsoft/Apple/Google which I had all missed as in investor. I started going in big early. I started buying stock at 50. I didn't hint at how much stock I own to brag, but only to say that I have significant skin in the game. We get a lot of trolls on this forum who talk a big game, claim that Tesla has no chance, etc., but I doubt many of them are backing up their statements with their money (in other words, are shorting the stock in a significant manner). I was only pointing out that I put my money where my mouth is. The only thing I worry about now that could derail Tesla is a major Earthquake or Terrorist attack at the plant. There are a lot of smart people in the world, but if you look into Elon's accomplishments, even before PayPal, you realize that he is much smarter, and has a much better ability to see a need to create a product where there is none, than almost anyone else on the planet. Few people really have the ability to legitimately judge what he can accomplish (although it is fun to try).�
Nov 28, 2015
rdalcanto There is another side to the EV revolution that drivers who do not yet own an EV don't understand. You have gone to a gas station your entire life. It is as much of life/reality as having to go to the bathroom, and you don't think twice about it. After a year, or probably sooner, of owning an EV, you realize that you will NEVER buy a vehicle that requires a trip to a refueling station again (a big reason why Hydrogen cars will fail). The lease on my wife's Leaf expires Jan 6th. We have been trying to figure out what we are going to do now that we learned that the 90D version won't be produced until they have built most/all of the P90Ds on order, and it could easily be 6 months or more. We have a very nice, fully loaded Jeep Grand Cherokee that we use to pull the boat. The rest of the time, the Jeep sits unused. The Leaf is not a very nice car, but after 2 years with the Leaf my wife would do ANYTHING to not have to drive the more expensive and "luxurious" Jeep for 6-9 months while she waits for the X. At Thanksgiving, I was talking about our options with my family (non of which own an EV), and I could tell they were trying to understand the problem, but probably thought we are crazy for not just using the Jeep. EVs are the future because the convenience of refueling at home while you sleep is priceless. Also the beauty of instant, smooth acceleration without a transmission changing gears is wonderful. So BMW, Audi, GM all getting into building EVs are not a threat to Tesla, but to ICE vehicles. The % of cars that are going to be EV is going to grow rapidly now, and there is plenty of business for everyone that builds a Tesla-like product.�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Again of course that is just an opinion. Other things that other people *might* worry about in relation to Tesla operations *might* be:
1. The Model 3 comes in much much too late. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
2. The Model 3 comes in way overbudget forcing up the sale price to much higher levels. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
3. The stockmarket catches a cold. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
4. A competitor comes in with a better and cheaper alternative to the Model 3. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
5. Something dreadful happens to Elon Musk. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could......and even in your words he is the Steve Jobs of Tesla.
6. The government pulls all current and future subsidies for the EV market, both for manufacturers and punters. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
7. New battery technology makes the Gigabit plant redundant overnight and everyone switches to a new battery design based on XYZ that charges in 30 seconds. I am not saying that is gonna happen - but it could.
That is just a quick 7 of the top of my head, there are probably more. I therefore think that narrowing the potential pitfalls down to only terrorists and earthquakes is just a little too optimistic.
EV's are the future - I totally 100% agree. I think it will actually not be legal to even purchase an ICE car in 20 years time (that was a recent prediction from Richard Branson).
Where you and I differ is how we get there. I personally do not think that Tesla has the massive first mover advantage that you think they do. Living in Munich I do know some people in car manufacturing. Elon is a smart guy, but there is potential competition out there and TESLA cannot afford too much to go wrong in their 5-10 year plan.
p.s. If we asked the average man in the street if Aston Martin was a successful car manufacturer I suspect most would say YES? But the truth is that Aston Martin have gone bust at least 7 times in their history. The guy that makes money from a golf course is usually the 2nd or 3rd owner. In the case of TESLA I am confident someone will be making a TESLA branded EV in 20 years time because the brand already has value......but whether the route involves Chapter 11 and debt writeoffs along the way, or buyouts - only time will tell.�
Nov 28, 2015
rdalcanto Well, when you come up with a list of things that could happen, you have to take into account the likely hood of them actually happening and their ability to cause Tesla to fail. In my opinion, which could obviously be wrong, 1-4 and 6 are a non-issue. I think if 5 was to happen, Tesla is far enough along now to survive. 7 is also a non-issue because I'm sure the plant can change to new battery designs just as easily as any other plant in the world. That is why I believe that the only real threat to Tesla at this point is destruction of the plant itself....�
Nov 28, 2015
vandacca It would appear that by your definition, anything that you write is intended as speculation, sarcasm, exaggeration, etc. and anything that anyone else writes is always intended as fact. You my friend are a spin-doctor, constantly quoting people out of context, and thus not worth having a discussion with. Clearly you enjoy pushing people's buttons. My advice to others, don't feed the wild-life.�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval @Vandacca. Thanks for the troll accusation again.
In your opinion my comments are not worthy of discussion. There is a very wide choice of other threads on this forum so no need for you to dirty your hands in this one ever again.
If I was a proper troll I would be off posting in every thread of the forum and roaming free. I am not.�
Nov 28, 2015
rdalcanto The only other thing I truly worry about now, is the rumor that Tesla wants the Model 3 to have a drag coefficient under 0.2.
If the design is ugly in order to achieve an extreme aero number, Tesla will fail. I could sell most or all of my stock after the reveal in March if I don't like the design....�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Let's be fair - the Nissan Leaf is hardly a looker and the Toyota Prius also fell out the ugly tree, so as it happens that does not fit anywhere into my Top 20 risks for the company!
I am pretty sure it will simply be an 80% shrunk down Model S.�
Nov 28, 2015
rdalcanto Johnny,
If you had come onto the forum and said I have an X on order, I'm interested in Tesla, but I wonder what you guys think of the following concerns I have regarding their ability to achieve long term success, things would have gone a little more smoothly. :wink:
I've enjoyed your thread because it makes me look into the bear arguments (again!), and it makes me feel better about my investment in the company (which 99% of advisers would say is much to high a % of my portfolio).�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval You assume I wanted smooth?�
Nov 28, 2015
vandacca Thank you for validating my earlier post. I never mentioned anything about the worthiness of your comments for discussion, nor did I ever call you a troll. You not only implied I said things that I did not, you also twisted and spun the conversation someplace you wanted to go for your own purposes. Clearly you have an agenda - what it is, I don't know and I no longer care, as this will be my last post in this thread (and I sincerely thank you for not posting in other threads).
Just because you mix a few valid points with outrageous statements, it doesn't make everything you write valid. A reasonable discussion cannot be had with someone who makes stuff up on the fly and twists the words of others. You have taken a little input from this community and fabricated your own story.�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Dang. I must have totally misunderstood:
And now you are never going to post here again and I will never know what it means.
Double Dang. I did a quote thingie so it was probably out of context and "don't feed the wild-life." is actually a compliment that means "have a nice day" or something.
But we shall never know.......
p.s. Does anyone know what "thus not worth having a discussion with" means in post #100 'cos I just keep misunderstanding stuff today. I thought maybe it meant "my comments are not worthy of discussion" but it doesn't apparently.�
Nov 28, 2015
Yggdrasill I agree with you.
My risk assessment would be:
None of the risks are off-putting, but an earthquake and Model 3 execution would be my top worries.
Event:
Probability:
Consequence:
Risk (PxC):
1
Medium (2)
Medium (2)
4
2
Low (1)
High (3)
3
3
Medium (2)
Low (1)
2
4
Low (1)
Medium (2)
2
5
Low (1)
Medium (2)
2
6
Low (1)
Low (1)
1
7
Low (1)
Low (1)
1
Terror
Low (1)
Low (1)
1
Quake
Low (1)
High (3)
3
�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Nice analysis. I am no expert on the maths of risk......but in theory I assume if there are lots of LOW risks all at the same time, then as an "insurer" or "stockholder" in theory they kinda add up?
i.e. We have maybe 5 x low risks, 2 x very low and 2 x medium risks all concurrent.
And I agree that none of the risks are off-putting as the buyer of a car, or even a small investor.......but would I bet the farm on Tesla? - personally I think not.
For me it's more about the maths than earthquakes. Cash is king in business. You can have the best damn business in the world but if you run out of cash you are screwed. Likewise if you have a bottomless pit of money you can survive 10 earthquakes.�
Nov 28, 2015
Yggdrasill They would add up, but my quick and dirty analysis doesn't have anywhere near the required resolution to say anything about the total risk. I would say the chance of a terror attack at a Tesla facility to be about 0.001%, while Musk dying in the next 5 years might be more in the area of 5%, but I set them both as low.
This kind of analysis is more for prioritizing and preparing for various scenarios.�
Nov 28, 2015
Discoducky Risks are called out very nicely in the shareholder letter here: http://ir.teslamotors.com/releases.cfm
I'd agree that Model 3 execution is the top worry, followed closely by Tesla Energy execution as they should have released something already, but the others are fairly distant in terms of likelihood or probability; still a concern, but distant.
Keeping my fingers crossed that March brings an announcement that results in strong demand and something that I want to buy.�
Nov 28, 2015
hockeythug How is any of this related to Model X production?
Edit: I know see this is the designated Model S "snippiness" thread.�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval @hockeythug
Sorry it's pretty much my fault. I started in another thread and then things got a bit excitable and off-topic, so the mods quickly chucked my posts into this little sandpit. The thread was supposed to then quickly die, but I'm still here
It's all a bit random - so you may find the wealth of other sensible threads more suitable. And no I don't own this thread - but it's my fault it exists!
Ideally it should be renamed "Ramblings of the Euro Troll" or something.�
Nov 28, 2015
hockeythug If you want to talk about and learn more about Tesla the company you are more than welcome to join us in the investor section.�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Thanks but I dont wanna upset @vandacca 'cos he wants me to stay in my kennel. But you are more than welcome to join us here in the errrrr.......pointless troll section?�
Nov 28, 2015
SW2Fiddler It would be tedious for every post to begin with a disclaimer, either "What follows is the opinion of the member and not observed phenomena yet," or for Duvalisms, "What follows may have been pre-amplified to emphasize concepts for transmission, or to entertain and incentivize keeping the comm line open."
But I can add such as subtext while I read... Hang on.
Recalibrating...
All righty then, now enjoying this discussion a bajillion percent more.
It has value! But it was admittedly pushing my buttons until I learned how to read it. It swerves in and out of the "Meta" lane. I have a high tolerance for Meta though.
If I have a strong reaction to an expressed idea, my first piece of homework is to take a look at my reaction. The best outcome of that is to learn something more about my own spins, tilts, ballast, lenses and filters. And the very least that happens is that I get a clue that I HAVE a button there...
Now, should I click "post" or just keep my little introspective grow-up Meta Moment to myself...�
Nov 28, 2015
EarlyAdopter Yes, there are many concurrent risks facing Tesla ahead. That's why the stock is currently $200 and not $1000, which is what it will be if and when Tesla moves past those risks and delivers on its goals. As an investor, you have to assess your own risk tolerance before investing. If you wait until all the risks are past then you will have missed the move up.�
Nov 28, 2015
Ugliest1 I actually really enjoyed this post, the irony and humour came across well. The earlier discussions, not so much.
And I'm now recalibrated.�
Nov 28, 2015
johnnyduval Ths thread has made me think about my Tesla X order of course. I am very late to the party and only reserved back in Spring 2015 (i.e. yesterday compared to the older members).
They said Spring 2016 delivery and I did ask very politely (yes I know that may sound surprising) if that was a realistic Spring 2016 'cos if it was gonna slip waaaaay past that time I might consider getting a Model S or another car altogether. They assured me it was realistic. Fine.
Fast forward to the present day and remember I am in Germany. Realistically if I choose to go P90D configuration what are we really looking at for delivery? I reckon around *maybe* September 2016 but it could be much later. Poor old "Bonnie" with order #2 is looking at January 2016 and even that isn't confirmed.
Imagine if I want the 90D. Ho ho ho. Spring 2017 perhaps by the time they have delivered to the USA back orders?
Also I have been given no prices or configurator, so even with a firm order I am feeling pretty switched off and sniffing about to change my car to something else whilst I wait. Fortunately my current car functions, so no pressure - just feeling Tesla deflated I guess. I bet the guys that put deposits down 3 years ago and want a 90D are proper pissed off!!! I'm just a bit "meh" about it.�
Nov 28, 2015
bonnie -eye roll- Speak to your own feelings�
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