Jun 18, 2013
yobigd20 finally we can kill all the speculation threads. Elon tweeted last night that they'll be a demo of battery swapping thursday night.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/346895679471357952
Tesla's 'Faster Than You Could Fill A Gas Tank' Recharge Is Battery Swapping After All - Forbes�
Jun 18, 2013
Mayhemm Man, Elon cannot keep a secret.
First he outs the supercharger upgrades at (I think) the D11 conference, now this.
His media team must hate him.�
Jun 18, 2013
highfalutintodd I was just thinking the same thing. The company is so apple-like in so many other ways that it always surprises me when he does things like this. It's like he desperately wants to do announcements in an apple / Steve Jobs style but just can't make it all the way to the finish line (after getting the build-up spot on). Oh, well.
On a side note, I have to admit that I'm honestly surprised that this is really turning out to be about pack swapping. Given the supercharger build out I'll be very interested to hear what the rationale is for this. Or, more to the point, the strategy if its anything other than a glorified tech demo.�
Jun 18, 2013
zax123 His tweet may also be strategic... to build up excitement/awareness and perhaps even affect the stock price before the big demonstration...�
Jun 18, 2013
Cosmacelf Hmmm, I wonder if this has more to do with proving the longevity of the car - see after 10 years, it is a simple matter of batt swap. Along with finally pricing for pre paid battery pack replacement.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb And let the comparisons with Better Place begin:
http://gigaom.com/2013/06/18/elon-musk-tesla-to-demo-battery-swap-tech-on-thursday-night/�
Jun 18, 2013
NigelM From an investor perspective, I like this better.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb No, the primary purpose of the battery swap is for charging:
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Jun 18, 2013
JerryNycom I feel a little violated!�
Jun 18, 2013
Raffy.Roma I would like battery swapping as a charging way done mainly at home not in a public place. I wouldn't like my battery being shared with other people. Just my opinion.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Elaborate? Why would you need battery swapping at home?�
Jun 18, 2013
jandkw This is good for Tesla and EV future particularly for those who are concerned about EV traveling long distance. If I travel from home in North Carolina to visit my brother in Houston using my S60, I have to make 8 stops, 20-30 minutes each, using the superchargers when happened. This is a little annoying. With the swapping technology, I can reduce the wait time to the minimum. Looking forward, if the battery technology improves to say, 120KW or 150KW, I can swap to bigger battery pack and drive my MS like the ICE car when travel long distance. This is a great solution to me.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb In your ICE car, do you really make that 1200 mile trip without any stops (either to eat or to sleep)?�
Jun 18, 2013
FredTMC +1. Right with you! Same post as mine. I think this is very appealing to many owners!
Someone please start an 'owners only' poll on "would you ever rent a swap battery for a long trip (at a reasonable price)?
I think the result is that a decent percentage of owners would do this on occasion.�
Jun 18, 2013
Miggs This is great news.
Many people will be comparing with Better Place, and saying they failed and Tesla may also fail. I would prefer to think of it this way - the GM EV-1 never had a swappable battery. Swapping batteries is going to be an important part of driving electric cars, and Better Place had the right idea. Tesla are honoring that great idea and following in their footsteps. The differences are that the car is desirable and people actually want to be in one. (wasn't the case with those Renaults that Better Place was using) Tesla will make it work... and Better Place will be vindicated as a pioneer that just couldn't make it work from a business standpoint.�
Jun 18, 2013
jerry33 This is horrible news, unless there is something about battery swapping I don't understand (maybe the announcement will dispel my fears--I sure hope so, but I don't see how it can right now). The Supercharger rollout is agonizingly slow but it's likely to be 100 or 1000 times faster than swapping stations.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb I wonder if he was effectively forced to. The 'battswap-hero' filename was all over the stock tweets. This must have concerned Tesla as well seeing that they took down that file since.
Or maybe Elon is throwing a bone to TMC. Drive the share price lower so that more people can get in before the real announcement on Thursday.
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Jun 18, 2013
efusco I'm with you, didn't make sense when Better Place was promoting it, doesn't make sense now. Not that there won't be individuals who can take advantage of it at times, but the logistics of a system like this, the expense and time involved, the issues of battery ownership, etc. are all very complex.
Focus on supercharging...money and time much better spent. Bridge with HPWCs in other places.�
Jun 18, 2013
mitch672 As CEO, intentional manipulation of the stock would get him many fines from the SEC.
No, it's absolutely battery swapping. However, we don't know the "usage" cases or rollout, or finances.
It could be initially intended for large fleets. Tesla received an order for 100 Model S's a few months back, I wouldn't be surprised if this swapping is just for that one customer, initially.
Amazing how many people just go "off" on an announcement, when the devil is in the details.�
Jun 18, 2013
jomo25 Can't say I'm a huge fan of this either. BUT some thoughts:
- that it can be done is a great thing. Whether useful now or I future, it presents options.
- I'd like to hear/see the use cases before final judgment.
- that Better Place failed, so? coda, Fisker, etc failed, but Tesla has beaten those odds. So it doesn'tt mean this will fail too.
- I like Superchargers, but this can be rolled out more quickly. SCs require permits, space, installation, coordination with utilities, etc. This just requires retail/service space (and service people and equipment)�
Jun 18, 2013
NigelM Why would anyone pay to swap out a battery when supercharging is much more convenient, free(!) and you don't have the stress of having to go and give the battery back?�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Which battery?
There's still much ambiguity remaining.�
Jun 18, 2013
NigelM Battery swap stations will also require permits, space, installation, coordination with utilities AND heavy equipment with trained staff, not forgetting real estate/lease agreements, local taxes etc.
Superchargers are already in (or planned to be in) prime locations, mostly rent free, with simple build out and no staff necessary. Sounds simpler and cheaper all ways round.�
Jun 18, 2013
mitch672 True, but I can't imagine it's the 12V battery in the frunk
I'm sure Elon will manage to surprise us, he always does.
It's probably more than we can imagine, but less than we expect�
Jun 18, 2013
richkae To qualify for the max ZEV credit which requires "refueling" faster than supercharger can provide. I think its a marketing gimmick that doesn't get rolled out beyond a token few stations in California to qualify for that credit.�
Jun 18, 2013
RDoc My hope for this is that they'll set up pop-up swapping spots during peak vacation times/events, etc. For example, during the summer, they could up mobile stations near some of the big national parks just on the weekends, perhaps using a smartphone app to coordinate demand and locations. Since there's no need for a grid connection or other permanent facility, they could bring a cassette of batteries and a swapping robot to a location just for the day. then return them to a central location for charging. In the winter, the same setup could be moved near a ski resort area.
Frankly, as a software engineer with a degree in mechanical engineering and some exposure to robotics and machine vision, the technical issues with all this seem seem quite doable since several Tesla people (including Elon) have been quoted as saying the battery pack was designed for fast swapping. If people don't want to exchange batteries, they don't have to, but it sounds like Tesla's position on the batteries is that they'll take responsibility for them.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Hey, that battery has been giving problems
I hope not... Because our imaginations haven't turned up anything interesting so far.
Very different than the Lease/Service/SuperCharger announcements where there were very interesting and compelling theories floated beforehand.
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To do what with? Tesla already has more credits than they can sell. Do you expect more ICE car manufacturers to enter into the CA market that they can sell to?�
Jun 18, 2013
Raffy.Roma Because I am planning to design and build a small solar panels system purposly to charge the battery of the car. With the battery swap I could charge one battery while I am using the other battery to run the car.�
Jun 18, 2013
efusco Ahhh...that make sense. Compliance program�
Jun 18, 2013
Sacrament055 Or maybe the swap stations will be located at the service stations. limits their usefulness but lowers the cost.�
Jun 18, 2013
FredTMC As I mentioned earlier, I'd rather not have long trip miles on MY pack. For example, if I went on a cross country trip I'd rather use a large rental battery. Maybe I'll to the national parks in UT or visit Yellowstone and charge at night at RV Park.
The TM service centers would perform the rental swaps. I would definitely use this option. Again, Elon said he prefers "optionality"�
Jun 18, 2013
copyhacker On the contrary, I'm sure the leaks were deliberately timed to manage expectations. This gives the market time to absorb the news, thereby front-loading the negative reactions. And TSLA has been taking a hit on Tuesdays anyway.�
Jun 18, 2013
NigelM I can understand that motivation - effectively you'd pay not to stress your batery in the hope that it'll either last longer or you'll get more money for the car when you sell it (although there's no way to officially record how many miles any given battery has experienced). There would be some argument here that a higher number of small charge cycles is worse than a lower number of full charges.
TM service centers (in FL at least) are too small to store even a low number of batteries, plus they'd still need to be outfitted with thermal monitors, coolant pumps and appropriate charge management systems (assuming the batteries are not stored for you on an existing vehicle). Batteries can be changed out pretty quickly, the big question is what do you do with them then...
Sometimes optionality is just expensive. I'm not a fan of the idea, but I'm ready to be surprised.�
Jun 18, 2013
jandkw The point I was trying to make is that I think Elon is trying to make the MS compatible to ICE car from travel standpoint. Sure, if I travel long distance and stop every 5-6 hours instead of 2-3 hours with my MS, that's certainly a plus. From sales standpoint, there is no debate on why I cannot keep one car for commuting and travel long distance. At any rate, we are still speculating whether this battery swapping is for primary battery or Al air metal swap as other forums has been discussing in depth. We'll all know by Thursday night, don't we?�
Jun 18, 2013
yobigd20 I think you actually have it backwards. The founder of Better Place actually got his idea to start his own battery swapping company AFTER visiting Tesla in 2006 and being shown by Tesla how battery swapping works. So it wasn't "Better Place's" idea in the first place - it was Tesla's. The only footsteps that Tesla is following is their own. Better Place didn't pioneer any new idea at all. The only thing Better Place accomplished was failing to actually bring it to market. Their solution proved to be too costly in the end and didn't win any widespread adoption. I'm sure whatever Tesla has planned is more practical than Better Place's.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Tesla has a significant marketing effort out there to say that the SuperChargers make the MS compatible to an ICE car from a travel standpoint. Front and center:
"Superchargers are located near amenities like roadside diners, cafes, and shopping centers. Road trippers can stop for a quick meal and have their Model S charged when they�re done."
If they release a competitive faster offering (as we understand it), it immediately undermines their own marketing message, don't you think? Instead of people being very excited about SuperChargers, they'll now think: "Oh, stop gap measure until the real solution is here.".
So customers who were holding off to buy a Model S until they have SuperChargers into their area will now instead be holding off to buy until they have SuperSwappers in their area. To not undermine the awesome marketing message that SuperChargers are achieving, it can't be something better that's targeting the same scenario. I've sold many products to the same customer segment - you DO NOT pre-announce a better product until you're literally ready to replace the existing one. Otherwise you will undermine existing sales. That's Product Planning 101 - Tesla would know this. (We're still assuming the ultimate goal of Tesla is to make money right?).
Thursday night doesn't help me as an investor�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine LOL, not at all. Battery swap will take a lot more time to roll it out compared to Superchargers. The real estate and building issues are just the beginning. Retail/service space is not cheap. People trained to do this procedure are not spread around the country waiting. If it is an automated system, they will still need techs qualified to maintain the equipment when it errors out. If anything, this is a lot more expensive and much longer to get out there in useful places for car owners.
We can only pray that this is just a cool tech demo and that Tesla is not diverting any dollars into rolling this out.
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You really have that much extra cash to burn? An extra $20,000 - $30,000 battery and your own personal battery swap machinery?�
Jun 18, 2013
jvonbokel If they're stored indoors, inside the Service Center, there would be no need for thermal monitoring and pumps*. And I believe Tesla/Elon has already stated that the charge management takes place within the pack itself, which was a design choice to facilitate pack swapping/upgrading in the first place.
*Charging speed might have to be limited, but if the packs are staying for a couple days at a time or more, that shouldn't be an issue. Also, if we're talking about Service Centers, and renting larger packs for trips, people are less likely to drop off an empty pack.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Why don't you just buy 2 cars and rotate them? It will achieve the same thing and be much cheaper than an extra battery + swapper.�
Jun 18, 2013
mknox This could be how they're going to get the Gen III car pricing down to a comparable ICE. Buy the car and lease or rent the battery...�
Jun 18, 2013
ElSupreme This! I probably wouldn't swap packs if it were free, I would rather Supercharge.
This is what I currently think but have some feelings that ...
I don't know about how those credits are working, but Tesla would about double them with a battery swap system. Maybe Tesla installs 5M worth of battery swap stations. But nets 10M in credit sales. They could spend the next 5M on superchargers.
One question I still have is how does Tesla give you a 100% charged battery? Do they keep their swap batteries 100% charged all the time. If they do won't they degrade quickly? And if you really do swap packs, never to get yours back again, isn't that kind of a bad deal?�
Jun 18, 2013
jdevo2004 The point of this system is to allow people who bought current technology battery packs to have easy access to future technology battery packs. You are charged a small fee daily/weekly to get a newer battery pack at which point you can either charge it on your own time or swap it at no charge at swapping stations across the country. Once you are done with your road trip you go back to your original swapping station to receive your original pack. There will not be very many swapping stations, 20-30 available in a few years IMHO. I really do not see what is so hard to figure out about how this would work. It makes complete sense for Tesla to tell its customers that they will always be allowed to use the latest battery technology.�
Jun 18, 2013
RDoc But that wouldn't really lower the price would it? The battery still has to be paid for no matter who owns it, although I suppose the 8 year life of the battery might allow for a lower monthly payment.�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine Get ready for more and more articles comparing Tesla to Better Place. That is what they tried.�
Jun 18, 2013
DaveT Elon just replied to someone on Twitter saying that the idea of battery swap is obvious but the technology is not.
What does he mean?
�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine Someone has to pay for those battery packs that are being swapped around. Tesla is not going to run that system as a charity.
So you need to decide how much you are willing to pay for a battery swap. Then Tesla has to figure out if it is worth spending a few hundred million dollars on a useful battery swap network around the USA, Europe and Asia. If users are not willing to pay for it, then I don't see it happening.
Personally, if there is a 120 kw Supercharger right next to the battery swap station, I would just use that for free while I get drinks, use the restroom, etc. If Battery Swaps cost anything at all, odds are that they won't be used much.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb The part in quotes (many things allow battery swap) is referring to the SuperCharger announcement where he said that laptops, remote controls etc. all allow battery swap. So it's an obvious idea.
To the technology not being obvious it tells me that this is not a drive-through robotic swapper.
What else can it be?
How about a set of small wheels mounted to the bottom of the battery pack? (Ala Roomba. Roombattery?). So your battery pack drops out and goes and plugs itself in, and another battery drives up into its place and raises itself into place. That would allow for a significantly cheaper and mobile deployment and a fairly cheap retrofit.
Virtually any business can then become a swapper business if they just buy a battery & charger (even L2 charger is ok). It would thus satisfy the "throughout the country" part of the original tweet.
To satisfy the "Under your nose" part of the original description as well, you need a secondary battery. Also non-obvious technology.�
Jun 18, 2013
AudubonB A few thoughts on battery swapping:
* some of above posters, as well as quite a number in other threads over the past months, mention their distaste for their battery getting lost in the swap (and variants of same). MY thought regarding this over the years was to consider batteries to be fungible commodities: one never really owns a pack; it is more appropriate to think of it as a consumable material just like those 15 gallons of gasoline you used to pour in your vehicle. I know this is NOT how Tesla has operated up until now, but such a modus might be how EVs evolve.
* where might these myriad locations be? How could TM afford to foot the bill for so many? Well, two such names come to mind....their stock tickers are CHV and XOM. Lots of locations, lots of experience, and LOTS of money.�
Jun 18, 2013
efusco For others, like me, who are not so stock savvy, that's Chevron and Exxon...�
Jun 18, 2013
Mike_Schlechter In regards to the "media team must hate him" and comparisons to Apple's PR machine and how they announce product innovations, I actually think this is all very planned. Yes, Tesla is Apple-like, but not an Apple clone. They are more like a Pear. Close, but not identical. To that point, they shouldn't be. Their products have a very different consideration and purchase cycle and also are a much more involved emotional jump than iPad to iPad Mini for the uninitiated and EV doubter. Simply, Tesla is more challenging than Apple has had to be since around 1984 and the first Macintosh.
I think these tweets and tips are all about owning the conversation and momentum. I am massively impressed with the finesse and skill that Tesla and Musk use with product announcements and hints via social media, especially Twitter, to drive interest.
Does all this help the stock price? Of course. Then again, any important or financially relevant product announcement from a public company will impact the stock price. To call it manipulation is a little far fetched in my mind. As CEO his job is also investor relations and driving a share price that improves cash flow. Tim Cook, Ginny Rometty and many other tech CEOs do the exact same thing all the time.
As to the implications of swapping as a use case, I'm not ready to pass judgement. If I've learned one thing in my five and a half year relationship with Tesla it is that they think about things in a very different way. They use disruption as a lever for progress. Thus, it is really hard to predict what they will do, or how they will leverage either new or existing technologies. The Tweets and other build up are also an effective manner of managing the fear, uncertainty and doubt that investors, owners and prospective owners hate.�
Jun 18, 2013
K5ING Just a thought, but could this be a second, range extending battery that would bring the total range to around 400 miles (similar to an ICE car) while taking a trip? How much battery could fit in that cubby at the rear of the frunk? You would keep your own battery, but rent and swap the auxiliary one. Could be done quick and easy, and the small size would address the storage problem. Might also explain the "under your nose" comment.�
Jun 18, 2013
strider Tesla has already demonstrated Model S swapping to CARB (with a handful of highly trained techs) and already qualifies for the max credits. So this is not tax credit related. Also CARB is talking about removing swapping as a "fast refueling" tech for tax credit purposes.�
Jun 18, 2013
Trnsl8r Call me a doubter that may have to eat his words come Thursday night, but I would much rather see more superchargers...
What's wrong with a 20 minute break every 200 miles? We're really in that much of a hurry that 5 vs. 20 minutes matter when driving cross-country?�
Jun 18, 2013
strider The challenge with this is that adding enough weight to give you decent range would require redoing the crash testing.�
Jun 18, 2013
yobigd20 I still stand by my theory that it's a hot swappable metal air battery range extender, considering they already have several patents covering this, for example "Thermal Energy Transfer System for a Power Source Utilizing Both Metal-Air and Non-Metal-Air Battery Packs" http://www.google.com/patents/US20120040210 and this one too http://www.patentstorm.us/applications/20130015823/description.html :
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Jun 18, 2013
Mayhemm I didn't think Model S had been crash-tested yet...officially anyway.�
Jun 18, 2013
K5ING My thoughts exactly. Actually, as an investor and huge fan of the Model S, I hate all of this emphasis placed on long distance driving, battery swapping, Superchargers (to a lesser extent), and how EVs won't be ready for prime-time until they can match ICE cars for range and speed of recharging. My Golf TDI gets 50mpg and can go 700 miles before the low fuel light comes on. Does that mean that I won't consider any other car that does less? Of course not.
Most of the potential Tesla owners can, and do, fly if they have to go more than 500 miles. Most also have a second (ICE) car that is better used for long trips if they insist on driving. If you (meaning anyone) routinely drive more than 250 miles per day, then maybe a Tesla isn't a good choice. Just as my Golf wouldn't be a good choice if I had to haul 3 yards of wet concrete every day. It comes down to using the right tool for the job.
As an investor in TSLA, I hate to see tons of money being used to address a problem that really doesn't exist for most of the car buying public. Better to put that money to work promoting the Model S as a good "daily car" (as opposed to a "neighborhood runabout" like the Leaf) that can serve the needs of 98% of the driving that is done.
set/mode/rant=off�
Jun 18, 2013
jandkw Just to make the charging business more interesting. I wonder if Tesla will endorse the Hypercharging Technology in the next few years....
Silex says first stations will be available next year�
Jun 18, 2013
jdevo2004 I believe the plan for Tesla is to support LudicrousSpeedCharging next year.
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Jun 18, 2013
Iz Would be nice if they could actually implement this.
Is Tesla under any pressure to build swapping stations? IMO, faster superchargers all over the map would be more feasible. I cannot see too many using swapping stations.�
Jun 18, 2013
Raffy.Roma Good idea�
Jun 18, 2013
Mike_Schlechter Just now on Twitter:
[email�protected] Battery pack swap works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there.
Anyone else think he reads these and then decides how to best mess with us? I almost hope that is the case...�
Jun 18, 2013
mitch672 It's the theory I proposed on the June 20th thread, they connect directly to the battery pack and do a DC to DC transfer of power.
They don't actually "swap" anything, other than electrons. There "robot" is a simple device that unplug the inverter/motor (or uses spare ports on the pack). It's their new "Hyper Charger"
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Jun 18, 2013
strider It's been crash-tested by Tesla and results reported to the DOT. It just hasn't been tested by the DOT itself.
Elon has stated that the swapping will work with all Model S's and no one has seen the wiring that would be required for such a setup. Owners have had the front and rear ends of the car torn apart for various repairs and upgrades. Not to mention all the cars that have been viewed on the assembly line at the factory. Someone would have seen it.
Also, see my crash-testing comment above. The pack would have to keep the car below it's DOT GVWR to not trigger new rounds of crash-testing. Someone did the math that a battery of such low weight would provide negligible range.�
Jun 18, 2013
jeff_adams This would be pretty cool. It also fits his comment " Recharge faster than filling a tank with gas."�
Jun 18, 2013
Darko You want a conspiracy theory? - there's a high-density range-extending battery already in the car's architecture that maybe needs to be changed out after 1000 or 5000 miles or so after the recharging degrades- I know I'll get a thousand replies as to why this is not possible, and I don't know enough about batteries to know if it is, so I can dream. But it would truly be "under your nose" and a hell of a lot more compelling to me than swapping the main battery.�
Jun 18, 2013
qwk If you look at the Model S battery pack, there are three hollow metal channels welded to the bottom that look like they will aid in quick pack removal.�
Jun 18, 2013
Trnsl8r Yeah, but in the later tweets he says "battery pack swap"...�
Jun 18, 2013
Mitthrawnuruodo Is the Hawthorne Batt Swap Demo invite only? I live about an hour away and would love to see this in person.�
Jun 18, 2013
mitch672 You are taking it literally, word for word.
Is not moving the electrons from a bank of battery packs into your pack technically "swapping"?
You are swapping electrons, not the pack itself.�
Jun 18, 2013
Raffy.Roma So it's not a real battery swapping but a faster way to charge. I knew that already supercharger made a fast DC recharge. Maybe that there is a better point in the Model S where if you make a DC recharge it charges even faster?�
Jun 18, 2013
ElSupreme Those are also there to protect the battery from damage. They are actually replaceable.�
Jun 18, 2013
qwk They are welded on. Replaceable? Yes. Easily repleacable? No.�
Jun 18, 2013
WarpedOne Wild-ass-idea: what about liquid electrolyte? Drain out discharged electrolyte, fill in the charged one.
A few problems:
- Current Li-Ion cells don't work this way
- I don't see how this would be faster than filling a gas tank. Maybe similar speed, but not faster.
This ain't news - removable battery was announced when they first announced Model S.
Non-obvious technology... what can we come up with? Self-swappable battery is a cute non-obvious proposition but still rather complicated/expensive.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Elon currently live on Reuters:
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=share&cid=1090140&shareToken=MzoyNmJlOWFiMC01MzMxLTRjMTYtYmRlZS05MjNlMWFhZjgwZmM%3D
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Elon: "Depending upon what the level of demand is for battery pack swap, we'll have swap capability everywhere where we have SuperChargers"
How much would it cost:
Elon: Can't let the whole cat out of the. Talk about the economics about this Thursday night. I think it will be compelling?
Will this represent a substantial capital investment for Tesla?
Elon: It will cost a few hundred million dollars to roll this out across the whole country. So it's not substantial but not pocket change.�
Jun 18, 2013
bollar Wow. That answered all the questions... Tesla will build it if there's demand -- one at each SC station, if there's demand. Cost to do at every SC $50-100MM. Some cats left in the bag until Thursday.�
Jun 18, 2013
Right_Said_Fred I dislike the 'classic' concept of battery swapping (taking the battery pack out and putting another one in). I will not use it and I think Tesla will not use it either.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb For sure $50m to $100m? I heard "few hundred" but I admit my speaker quality is poor.�
Jun 18, 2013
bollar Well -- that's what I heard. He immediately followed with, "that's not much." But what is a lot of $ to a multi-billionaire? Hopefully we'll be able to watch the interview in its entirety soon.
Actually this group of reporters are very well prepared. The questions are interesting and pertinent.�
Jun 18, 2013
brianstorms FYI Tesla didn't pioneer the battery-swapping idea either. Go study the electric vehicle industry journals and conference proceedings from years before Tesla was founded.�
Jun 18, 2013
jammerdjc Reuters Insider for the recording. You may have to create a free account with your corporate email address to get access.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb A last comment at the end:
Obviously Better Place failed with that core strategy, why do you think Tesla will succeed?
Elon: It's worth noting that Shai actually got the battery swap idea from a visit to Tesla. Concerned that we're copying Better Place instead of the other way around. Shai was very good at marketing, but not very good at technology. I do think pack swap can work very well if you have the right technology and you have the right mechanical device to do the swapping.
Do you have to get out of your car to swap the battery?
Elon: "Nope. Direct drive through - don't even have to get out of your car."
This isn't word-by-word. I'll relisten and re-post exactly.�
Jun 18, 2013
bollar And the final question is on battery swap:
Battery swap is not very difficult. All you need is a machine to do the swap and an easily accessible battery pack. Basically the Model S is a computer on wheels -- how long would it take to replace the battery pack on a computer? 30 seconds? Now imagine how fast it would be if a machine did it...
And you don't have to get out of your car to do it.
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I'm about 10 WPM slower with my typing than you are! Sorry to be repetitive...�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb Oh, no, redundancy is good
Anyway, the fact that it is non-interactive drive-through takes Al-Air in the frunk out of the equation. Sorry guys (I was a fan too).
"under your nose" meant it was always in all Model S's.
"throughout the country" meant it's co-located at all the SuperCharger locations.�
Jun 18, 2013
RDoc One thing about all this I'm not so pleased about is the idea that the swapping will be at the Supercharger stations. IMHO the main problem to be solved is better coverage of the US, not so much decreasing the charging time by 30 minutes. There are huge areas that people want to go to that won't be covered by the current Supercharger network, e.g. many vacation areas such the western National Park system. So, while I like the idea of battery swapping, getting much better coverage I'd think would be a better use of the investment.�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb To create a battery swapper, one must first have a SuperCharger... If one has a SuperCharger, one might as well make such a SuperCharger available to the public.�
Jun 18, 2013
metafor What swapping will allow is better service rate at Supercharger stations. I agree that 30 min isn't a long wait but at places like Harris Range, where there's only 1 Model S Supercharger station, 30 min per car can end up being a very long queue.
As more and more Model S's get on the road, congestion at Supercharger stations will only get worse. And when the Model X or Gen3 car comes out, even worse. So having swappable batteries would seriously decrease congestion time.
I do agree that we need more Supercharger stations across the country (or a DC fast charge adaptor....). I want to do a road trip up the Pacific Coast highway and there's little to no charging stations that way....�
Jun 18, 2013
bollar It's replaying now.
First question is also on battery swap: MS designed from the beginning for fast battery swap. Swap is offered for "optionality." No market research done on this (or anything else Musk has done on Tesla). Why? People don't know what they want.
This is a very interesting interview.�
Jun 18, 2013
Teriyaki88 Relax people. The world is not going to end because of this announcement. This doesn't change my opinion of the car/company at all. I still love my car. And if you don't like the battery swap idea, then continue to love your car as-is.
I don't know all the details but I think this battery swap will put some minds at ease, especially those who are worried about battery warranty/battery degradation. If your battery goes bad then swap it out with a new pack. Let Tesla fix the bad battery with minimal disruption to its customers. And keeping it positive, what if 85 kW pack get outdated and new technology comes along, say 100kW or 150kW pack. How cool would it be if I could upgrade my range by upgrading to newest and greatest pack out there (for some cost)?
I think this is great!!�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb First part of transcript:
Q: Why do you need to do this now, what makes you get to this point?
Elon: I was quite insistent on designing in battery pack swap technology for the Model S. We don't have that capability for the Roadster. But it was certainly important to address the long-range question for the Model S. It's important to preserve optionality. In designing the Model S, we made sure that we could do battery pack swap. Rapid battery pack swap. And we mean it. And also to do very high speed charging.
Q: Are we at a point now where it will be very easy for people to do that, because the battery is pretty large, right?
Elon: It is - but it's in the floor pan. But it's capable of being removed and replaced very quickly. And we'll see just how quick that is on Thursday evening.
Q: Can you give us a hint?
Elon: Reallly quick.
Q: Under 2 minutes?
Elon: Could be... Smile. [ok] Umm. It's faster than you could fill a gas tank.
Q: Is there research that may show how many more customer that would attrack to Tesla? Did that come up as sort'a a sticking point for why people weren't buying them?
Elon: Laughs. We haven't done any research on it.
Q: Oh really?
Elon: No. We haven't done any research on any of this actually. I mean apart from reading things - but no sort of research in terms of doing a survey or something.
Q: No market research, you don't go out and ask people, or anything about Tesla cars?
Elon: Zero, if anything. Ever.
Q: Wow. Ok. That seems unusual. And then. I'm so floored I don't even...
Elon: Well the thing is, if you ask people who rides horses what they want, they would say they want a horse that eats less and goes faster. And maybe doesn't poop as much. I don't know. Something like that - I don't know. But they would not have said I want a car. People don't necessarily know what they want.
Q: Is there a plan in place for all the infrastructure that you need? I mean you need a lot of these things to make it useful. Is this something that Tesla is going to Finance?
Elon: So we got these SuperCharging stations. About a dozen of them active around the country, and we're planning on having a couple of hundred - basically to cover the entire country. And you only need a few hundred to cover the entire United States, because if you got a car with a 200 mile range, and you just sort'a do 200 mile circles throughout the country - it actually doesn't take that many. Depending on what the level of demand is for battery pack swap, we will have swap capability at every one of the Tesla Stations - so you'll be able to travel anywhere in the country using battery pack swap. If the demand is there from customers.
Q: And how much is it going to cost?
Elon: Well, I can't let the whole cat out of the bag. [Sure you can]. Is this embargoed? [No]. Ok. I'll talk about the economics of it on Thursday night but we want it to be compelling. I think it will be fairly compelling.
Q: Is that going to be a significant capital investment for Tesla? A material kind of capital investment.
Elon: I think it's going to be - not a huge one. If we were to roll it out across the country, it probably would cost us 50 to 100 million dollars, which is not pocket change, but it's not a giant number.
Q: Just getting back to the battery swapping real quick - obviously Better Place failed with that as the core of their business strategy. Why do you think it would work for Tesla and did you learn anything from that company?
Elon: It's worth noting Shai Agassi actually got the battery pack swap idea from a visit to Tesla about 5 years ago. That was the genesis of Better Place. In fact I'm a little concerned that people will think we're copying Better Place where in fact Better Place they came on a tour and we told them we'll probably do battery pack swap one day, and we describe how we would do it and next thing we know Shai Agasi is creating a company around the idea. Which is fine - I don't mind. In Tesla we're pretty open about stuff. I try to minimize patents actually - I'm not a big fan of proprietory technology. The thing is that Shai was very good at marketing, but not very good at Technology. So he didn't quite get it right on the pack swap thing. And ... then they went bankrupt obviously. I do think pack swap can work pretty well. And I don't think it's a particularly brilliant idea. Because on those computers right there you can swap the battery pack. And our car is like a giant computer on wheels. So as long as you have the right mechanical device to switch out the battery pack and it's in an accessible location, you can obviously do battery pack swap. And you can do it very quickly. I mean - how fast can you swap out the battery pack in that computer? 30 seconds? So if you had a machine do it, how fast can you do it? Real fast.
Q: Do you have to get out of your car to swop the battery?
Elon: Nope
Q: Really?
Elon: Yip
Q: [Something about roller scates]
Elon: Direct drive through - don't even get out of your car.�
Jun 18, 2013
Raffy.Roma @Right_Said_Fred
I also don't like the idea of battery swapping and I would never do it. But I think that Tesla would like to offer this option so that the clients can choose.
Maybe that Tesla think that there is a market for battery swapping.�
Jun 18, 2013
stopcrazypp I think that's the strategy too. Basically the current superchargers will not be enough as the Model S fleet grows (not to mention Model X + Gen III + future Roadster). When there's a queue there will be people willing to pay for a swap. It's going to be a balance of the costs of parking space (superchargers need more space for more throughput) vs the cost of swap stations.
And being able to say our EV refuels faster than a gasoline car is a great marketing point. Up to this point, when naysayers say EVs can't refill in 5 minutes there really is no good rebuttal.�
Jun 18, 2013
anticitizen13.7 Along these lines, 2 related thoughts:
1. Could the extra packs being stored at a Supercharger site be used as a buffer to keep all chargers at Max kW capacity?
2. Packs can act as a power grid smoother when idle. Generate revenue when not in use with vehicle.�
Jun 18, 2013
RDoc Well, not if you can move the batteries.
There's nothing that prevents the batteries from being swapped at one location and charged at another. In fact, for many remote locations, I'd think that might be the best way to do it since the grid infrastructure layout is independent of the highway system's. Gas stations aren't only located next to refineries.�
Jun 18, 2013
stopcrazypp I don't think it makes sense to be doing this regularly, although I do expect there will be batteries moved around based on longer term demand (like seasonal changes or holidays).�
Jun 18, 2013
RDoc By separating the swapping stations from the charging stations, Tesla could place the swapping stations where people want to go and the charging stations where the power is, for example industrial parks. The current Supercharger map has a lot of areas where it will be extremely inconvenient to drive a Tesla, particularly a 60 KWh model. Visiting the big National Parks in Wyoming and Montana along with the Provincial Parks in Canada West of Calgary is not going to be simple.
Setting up swapping stations that only operated during the summer travel season could make this much better without Tesla having to make the commitment to several more Superchargers that wouldn't be used very much for most of the year. I expect that the swapping station itself will be a much smaller investment than the Superchargers since they don't have to do a major grid connection, wouldn't need a bunch of parking spaces, and wouldn't have to worry about nearby amenities. It wouldn't seem to be a lot more involved than a drive through car wash if the batteries were trucked in as needed.�
Jun 18, 2013
JRP3 Big problem with this statement, BP's problem was not the technology, their swap machines worked quickly, less than two minutes. So if Elon is saying that Tesla will get it right because of the swap technology, which is essentially going to be the same as BP, though hopefully a bit cheaper, that's not a great selling point.�
Jun 18, 2013
wraithnot It would be awesome if the battery swap station could be built into a flatbed truck. Then if you broder your car, you wouldn't even need a tow truck- just the mobile battery swap truck. Although I'm sure they would charge you several hundred dollars for the privilege of having the battery swap come to you . . .�
Jun 18, 2013
deonb My thoughts exactly regarding BP's problem not being with their technology.
$50m to $100m overall means $250k to $500k per swapper. It's a bit cheaper than BP, but not by a lot.
BP however had no other use for the batteries being swapped. Tesla does. So maybe the technology part Elon was referring to is the better overall integration in the entire model, and not so much the act of swapping.
- - - Updated - - -
So you would need specialized flatbed with a swapper to go and pick up a battery for you (potentially 65 miles away) and bring it to you?
As opposed to just taking any existing flatbed that's already out in the wild to the next charger?
So it's less convenient and more expensive. Not a great combination�
Jun 18, 2013
wraithnot I said it would be awesome- not that it would be practical or cost effective ;-)
I'm assuming the default state for the hypothetical swapper truck would be to carry a fully charged 85 kWh battery. While we're at it, lets put a giant alternator on the hypothetical swapper truck that powers a supercharger so it can recharge the dead battery it just pulled off of your car while it goes to the next brodered car (a 500 hp diesel engine would be 373 kW so more than enough to power a 90 kW supercharger). It would be amazingly convenient to the user- pick up the phone and soon you have a full battery. But such a truck would probably be obscenely expensive. And you would have to pay the truck driver to be on call. But I still think it would be awesome�
Jun 18, 2013
Palpatine Tesla would lose a lot of it's "green" credibility if there are all of these diesel trucks running around with a valet service of battery swap deliveries to wealthy people.
Heck, even the thought of trucks just running around balancing inventory of batteries in swap stations is enough to implode the green cred of Tesla Motors.
It sort of becomes as silly as buying bottled water that was shipped across the country. The energy consumption is just obscene. Tesla is really getting away from the core mission of the company with stuff like this.�
Jun 18, 2013
wraithnot Just use biodiesel in the battery swapper trucks and no fossil fuels have to enter into the equation. And then only build one of them to show that it can be done and put the rest of the resources into more superchargers . . .�
Jun 18, 2013
gaswalla why not a Tesla Truck?�
Jun 18, 2013
yobigd20 yeah I got a tree branch stuck in one of these hollow channels. It was annoying the hell out of me when I was driving. I was like "WTH IS THAT SOUND?!?!?". It actually sounded like the pano roof was cracked or somethign and air flow/wind was coming through. Turned out I was dragging a tree branch on the pavement as it was hooked into one of these hollow channels.�
Jun 18, 2013
Mike_Schlechter I'm still laughing about the horses comment. Seriously, that is probably the best way to explain why innovation happens outside the focus group / survey obsessed world of traditional marketing based organizations. Look at IBM as a perfect example, and specifically Watson. They basically thought it would be cool to have a machine that can play Jeopardy, and are now leveraging the potential it represents for business purposes. The point is disruption. I love it. I can't believe I'm becoming a fanboy, but I'm just in love with Tesla right now.
Having had a Model S for over six months helps....�
Jun 18, 2013
breading Evan,
While overall I agree with spending time and money on rolling out superchargers, as a fellow Midwest Model S owner, I am hoping that in the meantime battery swaps can be done at service centers (and that they implement this quickly). This would be a nice way to make a drive from Kansas City, MO to Chattanooga, TN. Or in your case from Nixa, MO to Chicago, IL. Just swap out the battery in St. Louis and then either a stop overnight in Nashville before heading down to Chattanooga or a quick charge up at the one supercharger in the midwest before heading on to Chicago. Then, pick your battery back up on the return trip. It would make longer distance travel possible before the superchargers finally make it to the center of the country.
-Edit- OK, nevermind. I just saw the transcript where Elon said it would be available at all supercharging stations if there was demand. Looks like still a long wait for us in the Midwest.�
Jun 18, 2013
aviators99 My battery is underperforming and I haven't been able to get Tesla to do anything about it. Personally, I'm champing at the bit to be able to swap it out.
It's possible that they've been stalling me for this reason...who knows?�
Jun 18, 2013
William13 If one uses Elon's computer battery analogy, I carry a notebook computer around all day. I plug it in repeatedly through the day. It holds up to 4 hours charge. I work 8-10 hours a day. I could swap out batteries, I have two, but I never do. I would need to go to the swap charger, taking 15 seconds instead of plugging in taking 2 seconds. Three years later, I have never swapped.
Deonb's idea that they might do several pilot swappers in CA is likely. There are large tax incentives to do this to pay for the investment that Tesla has put in already.�
Jun 18, 2013
stopcrazypp A notebook (or cellphone) battery analogy is not perfect. You can still use a notebook or cellphone while it's charging (it's just no longer mobile), but you can't drive a car while it's charging.�
Jun 18, 2013
JerryNycom What about the cost in swapping? What does that look like?�
Jun 18, 2013
pete8314 Steve Jobs had exactly the same approach to market research according to his biography. Interesting, and in many cases of radically new product, probably true.�
Jun 19, 2013
Martini If you need battery packs at Supercharger stations anyway for energy storage, you just draw upon these for swapping. It negates the "Battery inventory cost" problem of swapping by leveraging existing infrastructure. I think those that say swapping and supercharging should be separate are missing the point. If SC stations are located optimally, why should swapping stations be elsewhere? This is especially true once the network is fully built-out.�
Jun 19, 2013
Wenche I have a theory thatTesla will use a battery swap with �power swap charging�, i.e. without removingthe original battery. The reason of my thoughts is to be found in the articlebelow. When you may charge 200 kWh into the battery of a ferry in 10 minutes, Ithink it is possible to charge a Tesla Model S 85 kWh in less than 5 minutes,using a similar method. I think that Elon Musk has developed an own way of transferringthe solar power from a large bulk battery, with a DC transfer solution (swap) intothe Model S battery pack, similar to the one presented for the ferry. Anythoughts?
From the newspaperAftenposten.no in Norway:Shortcut of original. Translation not perfect.
- The world�s firstbattery ferry is Norwegian.
From 1.st January the worlds first battery ferry will be in trafficbetween two harbours in Norway.The ferry is being built in Norway, andwill be completed autumn 2014. It is like a traditional ferry, but energy comesfrom batteries.Siemens Norway has developed the technology that the ferry willuse.One of the main issues was to charge the battery quick enough, to get itfilled up in the short time the ferry was parked at the harbour, and the fact thatthe supply chain from the public supply of electricity was not fast enough.
Solution was to make 3battery packages, one onboard, and one left on each harbour, says director ofsales in Siemens. While the ferry is on its way, the two batteries are loadedwith electricity from the public electricity cables. When the ferry is parked, for only 10 minutes, the batteries willbe charged from the others. The batteries are about the same as in an ordinaryNissan Leaf, but the capacity is about 50 times the car. One time crossing thefjord takes about 150-200 kilowatt-hours(kWh).
Link: http://www.aftenposten.no/okonomi/Verdens-forste-batteriferge-er-norsk-7221422.html#.UcCv7-o4UX4
(If you use Google translator you will get heidea that you could rent this ferry, but that is Google�s translation forharbour. I will try to translate some of the important issues that I focus, foryou.)�
Jun 19, 2013
NigelM ^^^ Interesting!! That would answer many questions about the logistics and feasibility of exchanging batteries. Also explains Elon's comments about recharging faster than refueling etc.�
Jun 19, 2013
dsm363 That would be amazing. So basically no real 'swapping' of the battery and less hardware.�
Jun 19, 2013
bollar This *is* interesting. I think, though, the pack would still need to be disconnected from the car to accomplish that much energy transfer.�
Jun 19, 2013
WarpedOne Nope. You are still limited by LiIon chemistry charging properties.�
Jun 19, 2013
mitch672 Yup, that was one of my guesses as well, I've posted in in several threads a day or 2 ago, the "swapper" might consist of nothing more than a robototic device that makes a direct DC to DC connection to the pack, under the car (possibly unplugging the inverter/motor to do it). It seems there are a lot of bolts securing the pack to the car, cooling lines below the frunk, etc, that's why it seems unlikely to be done quickly with a physical pack swap... We'll see tommorow evening�
Jun 19, 2013
hiroshiy The capacity of such battery would be 24 x 50 = 1200 kWh, and if one crossing require 200 kWh and it takes about 10 min, then the charging power would be 200 x 60 / 10 = 1200 kWh from the battery at the harbour.
Does this just mean 1200 / 1200 = 1C charging? Approx the same as 90 kWh superchargers... but of course Tesla will have much more exciting stuff in their sleeves.
Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 4 Beta�
Jun 19, 2013
JRP3 Correct. Elon has already said it's swapping, why are people trying to figure out what he's already told us?�
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