Thứ Ba, 3 tháng 1, 2017

Analyst Reports/Targets part 1

  • Feb 25, 2013
    NigelM
    Analyst reports and targets are issued on a regular basis. This is a good place to post the latest ones you may come across, feel free to discuss. Also, please include a source link!

    - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    Here's one from today:
    Tesla Motors PT Raised to $35.00 at Deutsche Bank
    DB seems to be saying stand still, or maybe they have no idea where it might go? Other analysts are all over the shop with PTs ranging from $30-45:

    �
  • Feb 25, 2013
    blakegallagher
    I think it shows something that a firm that had the price at 28 (very low) has moved it up to close to where the stock is trading now ... did not see any reasons given though .... if you are a member of these investment firms do they issue you a more in depth report than what gets republished be the news sources?
    �
  • Mar 1, 2013
    NigelM
  • Mar 4, 2013
    kenliles
  • Mar 4, 2013
    Clprenz
    Not trying to be bullish, but I think their estimated EPS id extremly stupid. I think it could be in the range of $2-$3 per share. But then Again I think I could see a EPS of .39-.67 this quarter. That is based off my surveys each person is buying about 11k in options and the production(4600) I predict is prob. 60:25%-30% 85:30-38% P85: 25%-32% , so average car price is about 82.5k for buyer and 90k for them. making a revunue of 400 million to 420 million and a gross profit of 11%-18%= EPS estimate of .39-.67. Worst case scenario I see a EPS of .20-.30 but that is still 10x the average of the whole freaking year!!!! I expect shares to jump!(Note: I did expect lower amount of deliveries based off the forum last time, so I'm not always bullish.) But based off the fact that someone got 7000+ vin now and that it takes them about 2-3 weeks to complete, I would expect vins through 8000 to be issued and vins through 7400-7600 to be delivered or close to delivery Otherwise I think that they are right on target for their estimated #. Long #TSLA
    �
  • Mar 5, 2013
    Zzzz...
    Gross profits are NOT equal to earnings. You need to subtract SG&A, R&D, taxes and some other minor things to get EPS.
    �
  • Mar 8, 2013
    mitch672
    Investary Group - Stock of the decade. (YouTube video)
    YouTube
    �
  • Mar 8, 2013
    Zzzz...
  • Apr 3, 2013
    mulder1231
    There was a Morgan Stanley alert this morning, reflecting on the announcement from yesterday. But no revised target (yet). It did make the prediction of imminent capital raise:

    Btw. When did they have a $250 target? Highest I'm aware of is $70.

    image.jpg
    �
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Citizen-T
  • Apr 3, 2013
    NigelM
  • Apr 6, 2013
    Curt Renz
    MarketEdge Raises TSLA to Strong Buy

    Effective Monday, MarketEdge/Second Opinion will be raising Tesla Motors (TSLA) to a strong buy.

    The following is from the MarketEdge/Second Opinion commentary at TD Ameritrade: Market Edge - Second Opinion Weekly

    [FONT=&amp]Second Opinion[SUP]�[/SUP] Weekly - TESLA MOTORS (TSLA)
    Exchange: NMS[/FONT]    		 [FONT=&amp]
    Close as of week ending
    4/5/2013[/FONT]

    		[FONT=&amp]Opinion[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]LONG[/FONT]?
    		[FONT=&amp]Date Opinion Formed[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]04/08/13[/FONT]?
    		[FONT=&amp]Price Opinion Formed[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]41.37[/FONT]?

    		[FONT=&amp]Score[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]0[/FONT]?
    		[FONT=&amp]C-Rate[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]0.0 [/FONT]?


    [FONT=&amp]UPGRADED[/FONT]?


    [FONT=&amp]Recommendation[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Stock is a Strong Buy.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Comment[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Chart pattern indicates a Weak Upward Trend.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Relative Strength is Bullish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Look for Support at 35.96[/FONT]
    [FONT=&amp]Stock broke Double Top (Bullish) Point & Figure Chart Formation Last Week[/FONT]
    �
  • Apr 6, 2013
    Curt Renz
    Previously MarketEdge had upgraded TSLA from Sell to Neutral on March 22 which was reiterated on March 28.
    �
  • Apr 6, 2013
    GlennAlanBerry
    I think it is interesting that Edward Jones has no research opinion on TSLA
    �
  • Apr 6, 2013
    MikeL
    Hey Curt, I'm jumping into your thread to ask a question I think might be relevant. Wouldn't be surprised now if it happens again Mon. Q: why do the big movements in TSLA usually happen in the first hour of trading (often the first 10 min) & then bounce around within a very narrow range for the rest of the day. Obviously there are plenty of exceptions, but it's a pattern I see a lot. So I'm wondering why, what it means & does it matter. Is it something that results from something specific about Tesla, the near-record short interest? The type of company, or it's size? Or is this a common thing across the markets that just happens that way? Thanks, ML
    �
  • Apr 6, 2013
    Curt Renz
    Most brokerage guidance is based on fundamental analysis. When a relatively new company has no record of profits yet is making a product that has unlimited potential, a fundamental analyst has little basis for making a prediction that depends on hard facts. In a few years the company may be bankrupt or the next Apple. A middle ground estimate is likely to be wrong. So many analysts not wanting to look foolish, decline to follow the stock. The MarketEdge guidance seen here is based on technical analysis, which is the subject of my book. That essentially relies on patterns of price and trading volume to infer what the market may know or feel collectively that no individual has the ability to discern through personal knowledge.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The stock is susceptible to manipulation due to its mid-level of trading volume and the wide range of possibilities for the company�s future. The stock�s relatively high valuation and high short interest imply that opinions are extreme in both directions. Someone with a large short position can conduct additional heavy shorting during the opening minutes of a session. The resulting price drop gets magnified due to a cascading effect as the price drops through stop loss limits set by share owners. Others panic. The entity with the short position can then cover much of that throughout the day by buying back slowly at depressed prices. The reverse can happen when good news before the market opening causes the stops of shorts to be triggered during the early minutes of trading. Perhaps a few nimble day traders can take advantage of this volatility, but most long term investors are better off ignoring the noise.
    �
  • Apr 6, 2013
    MikeL
    Thanks, I will continue to ignore it (while watching it carefully!). Although I could have done some profit taking several times since buying TSLA in Jan., I'm more comfortable just knowing at this point, I'd rather have the stock than the cash. We are here at a very exciting time. Here's to more analyst upgrades! ML
    �
  • Apr 8, 2013
    kenliles
    good advice from Curt- I'll note here though another alternative (only if it suits your activity profile). Some on this board do both from different pools of money. Stay long with an investment that ignores the noise, so you are always in play for your basic belief in Tesla(stock or LEAPS work well for this). Then with a completely separate pool source, buy on downswings and sell on rises to capture volatility swings. Just a thought if you happen to also be a day follower. One way to just try it for while to test comfort, is use stock for tiny buy-sells, then if comfortable slowly increase amounts. Of course the disadvantage of small amounts is the commission percentage eats up gains. Otherwise just sticking to your long position and watching is best advice as Curt suggests
    �
  • Apr 9, 2013
    MikeL
    Thanks, cool clear advice is certainly welcome. I bought-in in 3 smallish batches (not including the time I sold it all once by accident by placing the limit order wrong.) :eek: So assigning a third of it, or so, for trading would work for me I think. Funny thing is, my TSLA keeps going up! -that is, on the days it doesn't go down - Ha!
    �
  • Apr 27, 2013
    blakegallagher
  • Apr 28, 2013
    mulder1231
    There was an April 26 research note, titled "Billionaire's Poker".

    In this note they are reiterating their concern about the Tesla order book (based on delivery estimates now 1 month after ordering), and explain why this concern is not reflected in the current stock price, with four theories:

    1. Income from ZEV credits (JP referred to this in his recent post on Seeking Alpha)
    2. Model S prospects in China
    3. Tesla is in a strong position to raise additional capital
    4. Model S is just a damn good car

    I particularly liked the last one, and the comment about a group of BMW engineers who did not think Tesla would be able to pull it off:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Regarding the ZEV credits and JP's negative take on it, this is discussed at length in the Nonsense-from-John-Petersen thread starting here.

    Morgan Stanley has a more interesting take on it:

    �
  • Apr 28, 2013
    brianman
    Let's go with the simple $100k that people like to keep quoting. 13.9% is kinda huge.
    �
  • Apr 30, 2013
    mulder1231
    Cross post from the TESLIVE Speakers and Topics thread, as people here may know some analyst that should be invited to participate in a TESLIVE session on investing.

    TESLIVE seems to like the idea of a panel on investing strategies with an analyst as moderator.

    However, Adam Jones from Morgan Stanley is not available. So here are some additional names of analysts who are regulars on the Tesla earnings calls that I suggest the organizers check into as possible moderator for a session at TESLIVE:

    Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan, Senior Equity Analyst (has followed automotive sector for eight years)
    Andrea James - Dougherty & Company, Vice President, Senior Research Analyst (has been on Bloomberg)
    Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs, Vice President, US Automotive (has been bullish on TSLA)
    Dan Galves - Deutsche Bank, automotive research VP (conservative $35 target)
    Carter Driscoll - Capstone Investment, Wall Street analyst (slapped a sell rating on Tesla three years ago)
    Ben Schuman - Pacific Crest (liked Musk fighting back NYT Broder episode)
    Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley, Vice President and Lead Analyst for the North American automotive sector
    John Licata - Blue Phoenix, Energy strategist (has been on Fox News)
    Amir Rozwadowski � Barclays Capital (Tesla top pick in clean tech)
    Elaine Kwei � Jefferies & Co. (has been on Bloomberg)
    John Lovallo � Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (downgraded Tesla after Q4 earnings last February)
    Ben Kallo � Robert W. Baird, expert green tech analyst (has been on Bloomberg w/ Cory Johnson)
    Aaron Chew - was Maxim Group analyst covering Tesla, now VP of Investor Relations at SolarCity

    If you have any other suggestions, or a particular preference for one of the above, please comment.
    �
  • Apr 30, 2013
    30seconds
    not quite a magazine cover, but sure seem strange / horrible idea to have a panel like this. In my opinion TSLA is a very high risk stock (I'm long) and should be treated accordingly to the investing public
    �
  • Apr 30, 2013
    mulder1231
    Well, maybe you misunderstood. The panel would not be the list of analysts listed in my post, but would consist of TMC members sharing their investor experience and opinions on TSLA.

    We'd invite just one analyst as the moderator. In my opinion it would be interesting and educational, especially if they pick an analyst who is not so bullish on the stock, that could make for interesting discussions and perspectives.
    �
  • May 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
  • May 13, 2013
    mulder1231
    Morgan Stanley preliminarily ups price target to $77, based on new Tesla guidance, while needing more time for a full review of all variables, now that Tesla has moved passed the viability question:

    Here's how they arrived at the preliminary $77 target:

    �
  • May 13, 2013
    kenliles

    imo they're using the wrong multiple (as many will no doubt); Given the leverage points of new scales achievable and complete industry disruption spanning cars-fuel-infrastructure, the multiples on this stock will outstrip any current auto mfg for many years imo (and rightfully so).
    Harley Davidson? got to be kidding me- a brand so established, they've made the same sound for 100 years
    In my view, This is more evidence - they just don't get it and won't for a very long time
    �
  • May 13, 2013
    Citizen-T
    Agreed. Multiple is too low. They need to stop comparing to automakers and start looking at tech companies for a comparable multiple.
    �
  • May 13, 2013
    ckessel
    How does that end up working, say 7-10 years from now, when other auto makers have EVs? Do their multiples go up? Does Tesla's come down?
    �
  • May 13, 2013
    Citizen-T
    Tesla's comes down. The same is true for tech companies. Look at IBM's multiple or Apple's multiple or Microsoft's multiple. Then look at Salesforce.com or Netflix.

    The market pays for future earnings. When you have a company like Tesla where the sky is the limit for what they might become, the market will award a higher multiple. Toyota has already pretty much saturated the market, there isn't room to grow; therefore, they get a smaller multiple.
    �
  • May 13, 2013
    kenliles
    exactly- Tesla was the disruptive force that propelled their growth while others react to the disruption to regain industry position. At that time Tesla's multiple will come down substantially, while the entire industry multiple moves up slightly as market changes- but by that time Tesla will be potentially as big as the rest of them (or bigger in profit)- imo we should see multiple for TSLA in the 20-40+ range for several years (through Gen III at least)
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    mulder1231
    Well, that full review didn't take long, Morgan Stanley today increased their price target to $103. Here's their reasoning:

    4 key drivers of our price target to $103 from $47:
    We continue to value Tesla on a 15-year DCF with a 12% WACC but update our assumptions to consider new information. (1) First time inclusion of regulatory credits of >$220m/year, adding $15 per Tesla share. (2) Exit EBITDA multiple up to 9x from 7x to reflect strong launch execution and declining going-concern risk. (3) A 40% increase in our Model S est to 30k by 2015. (4) A 70% increase in Gen 3 volume and other efficiencies.
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    Soflason
    Wow, buckle in for another exciting TSLA ride today...
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    AlMc
    I feel like I have a Tiger by the tail. Do I hold on or let go. Never had a stock that tripled in a couple months. But, like the 'S' itself..it is a fun ride.
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    toastypasta
    Can someone link to this Morgan Stanley update? i can't seem to find it.
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    SteveG3
    this is great! I'd been wondering if Tesla could expect to continue to maintain these in out years. This certainly implies they can for quite some time. That's pretty much $2/share more each than I'd modeled in my head. Starting to see how Tesla is so confident about paying DOE loan early.

    The raise to 30k Model S in 2015 is amusing... conservative. To be fair these guys went out in front of the pack making a $103 price target.
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    TD1
    yes please
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    CapitalistOppressor
    Fearless Prediction - Morgan Stanley Will Revise Guidance Upwards Again. Soon.

    Maybe.

    I sent an e-mail to Adam Jonas last night about some really major problems in their previous research note (which in fairness, was "under review), and asked if they wanted help fixing it, lol.

    Very early this morning they released their new research. I must say it is a far superior product, and they are now clearly aware of the primary revenue streams that Tesla relies on, including what looks at first glance like a decent regulatory credit model.

    However, they also tried to fix a particularly nasty systemic error that existed in their previous report (and probably earlier ones). But instead of fixing it, they doubled it. Apparently anyways. I don't see any other way to interpret their model, so I am going to e-mail Adam again and see if they have a reasonable explanation.

    If I don't hear back from him, I'll the post the data on here and see if anyone can come up with a better explanation than my own :smile:
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    brianstorms
    Is this morning's research available on some web URL? Or is it something one has to pay to read?
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    60TTuC
  • May 14, 2013
    CapitalistOppressor
    The original report is embargoed. There are plenty of news accounts that discuss it, but you probably need the report to identify the error.

    Anyways, I just sent the e-mail to Adam. We'll see what happens.
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    Soflason
  • May 14, 2013
    avatar
    lol - this pricey MS analyst came to same the conclusion I did on a piece of paper only a year late. Why do these clowns get paid? TSLA's fundamental case is childishly simple to calculate. It was always the engineering and manufacturing uncertainty of building the right car that people had to be worried about.
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    kenliles
    +1 they shouldn't be paid imo. there are precious few that have any real value- and those are making money in other ways
    �
  • May 14, 2013
    CapitalistOppressor
    Ok, got a response. Their explanation looks legit. Main problems were fixed anyways, and it was already a great report for Tesla.

    Anyways, this thread can be closed out. Nothing to see here.
    �
  • May 15, 2013
    Cattledog
    CapOp - First Citizen T, I expect this prognostication next.
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    twinklejet
    Bank of America sets a $37 price target on Tesla Motors Inc (16 May 2013)

    Link: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-an-opportunistic-capital-raise/

    Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): An Opportunistic Capital Raise

    May 16, 2013
    By Paul Shea




    Bank of America has set a $37 price target on Tesla Motors Inc, seemingly after studying what other analysts are ignoring-the risk factors.

    In response to the news that Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) was planning to offer additional shares to the market, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) released a new report on the company. The BAC report is, as it readily admits, out of consensus, and that�s what really makes it interesting.[?IMG]
    In a period when analysts seem to be competing on who can give Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) the highest price target, some pessimism is refreshing, and it could be very educational. The report puts a twelve months price target of $37 on Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares, unchanged on the news of the new offering from the company.The Bank of America report bases its valuation of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) on a 18.5X multiple of expected 2013 earnings. One thing that the Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) report does that few analysts have managed to do when it comes to Tesla Motors is provide a decent amount of detail on downside risks.Most recent reports on the electric car manufacturer contained only a couple of risk factors, some of them almost laughably miniscule. A recent Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) report on the company named just two risk factors, and one of them was the company�s price guarantee three years down the line.
    The Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) report, at the very least, reads like due diligence has been done. There are twelve risk factors in the report: 1)Inability to lower costs and increase cashflow, 2) less than expected EV demand growth, 3) setbacks in battery technology, 4) competition, 5)raw material costs, 6) expansion efficiency problems, 7) government policy changes, 8) inability to pay loans, 9) low gas prices, 10)management changes, 11) financial reporting problems, and 12) decline in luxury vehicle demand.
    There are serious risks associated with Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), and many analysts appear to be ignoring them. The momentum is with the company, but the stock is a much riskier bet now than it was three months ago, simply because its price has doubled in a month.
    Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has made an exceptional vehicle in the Model S, but that doesn�t mean there are no risks going forward. Tesla has a long hard climb, and it seems disingenuous to continue upping price targets, while seemingly ignoring risk factors.
    There are few people left who want Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) to lose. The firm is a classic story of American innovation. That doesn�t mean that investors should tell themselves a fairy tale.

    Article source: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-an-opportunistic-capital-raise/
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    ckessel
    There's some serious WTF in their risks:
    Ok, so we're only looking out 12 months.
    Uh, they don't need growth, the steady state will see them through 12 months. But ok, I'll give them this one.
    WTF? What do they think is going to happen to Li-ion batteries in the next 12 months? How on earth would the technology have a setback within 12 months?
    Bwahahahaha! Really, a competitor is going to emerge in 12 months?
    Well, ok, that might have been true when they wrote it, but it isn't now.

    Some of the others I could quibble with too, like management changes, but I'll give those credence in the due diligence category.
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    twinklejet
    Hypothetically:

    Boeing 787 catches fire again while in flight. Aircraft crashes - killing all on board. FAA determines that the fire started in the Li-ion batteries, AGAIN. Extra measures taken in early 2013 during the worldwide grounding of the 787 fleet were of no use. FAA's decision to allow the 787 to return to the skies with the Li-ion batteries publicly criticis(z)ed. Nation mourns. Heads roll at the top of FAA. New FAA head declares all Li-ion batteries banned from aircraft for the foreseeable future. Stocks of Li-ion linked stocks dive. FOX News wonders when Tesla cars are going to explode - suggests owners avoid driving up to higher altitudes in the meantime. Politicians weigh in, possible knee-jerk reaction of banning Li-ion powered vehicles from roads for "safety" reasons. Tesla fleet "grounded". Aliens seize the opportunity to beam up all Tesla cars for their own use cause, well, stationary targets are easier to beam up than the entire fleet driving all over the place, no? Elon Musk surprised by missing vehicles the next day. Instructs SpaceX to launch an immediate mission to chase the aliens to get the cars back. Aerosmith composes new song for mission. Elon Musk leaves the planet. (...) Everyone dies.
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    avatar
    Congratulations BoA. You have once again found yourselves with your heads up your asses. Idiots.
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    ggr
  • May 16, 2013
    Soflason
  • May 16, 2013
    jeff_adams



    +1

    Every other report is 2X+ higher than them.

    Who listens to BofA on investments anyway? They invested in Countrywide and are getting their asses handed to them in lawsuits all over the country. Does John Peterson work for them????
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    Zextraterrestrial
    BofA heavily into oil?

    It has always been my least favorite bank that I have banked with but wow
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    kenliles
    jeff reference to countrywide took words from my keyboard...

    I they just made an inadvertent omission - the $37 is after 2 splits; that's $148 to you and me
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    c041v

    I've been wondering about this, what criteria is required for a split and does anybody think one is likely to happen soon?
    �
  • May 16, 2013
    mulder1231
    LOL, you just wrote the basic script for Ironman 4.

    - - - Updated - - -

    BofA is a horrible bank, their loan department, worse than used car salesmen. Too big to fail, I hate them all. I moved all my accounts over to Ally bank after the crash in 2008. Who needs brick-and-mortor banks anyway.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    gregincal
    No criteria. A company can split the stock whenever they want. However, given that Tesla is a Silicon Valley company, the new trend is to not split ala Google and Apple. High share prices are cool.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    Robert.Boston
    Yep. Historically, companies would split their stock to keep the value within some reasonable range. This made the stock more accessible to retell investors, who typically were only able to afford small block of shares even at two digit valuations. Berkshire Hathaway led the charge in not splitting stock, retail investors be damned. Given improved trading software, the penalty for trading odd lots of shares has for all intents and purposes vanished. That's a long way of saying that I wouldn't look for Tesla to be splitting its stock anytime soon.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    v12 to 12v
    Splits tend to wipe out some psychological barriers for entry.
    When a stock splits at $90 and shares become $45 the magical 3 digit number seems to lose its influence.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    gregincal

    But the new reasoning seems to be that a high share price shows how successful the company is. Google stock is almost at $1000 and people are still buying it. The fact is that it doesn't really matter. Who's going to invest only $45 in a company? Robert had it right, now that it's easy to trade single shares if one wishes, a high stock price doesn't really matter.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    brianman
    Parents (and other relatives), as gifts. I got two shares of Motorola long ago that would have been a different stock if the price was higher.

    I'm not making a comment about Motorola, just about the merits of a lower priced individual share.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    ckessel
    Can you buy less than 1 share of stock? I can see someone with just a few hundred to invest that couldn't even afford a single share of Google.
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    ModelS8794
    Stock splits are an artifact from a time when full-service brokers were your only option and shares were purchased in a minimum "round-lot" of 100 shares. If round lots were still required for transactions, you can be sure GOOG and AAPL would have split long ago. There is also that psychological reason behind stock splits (people just think lower share price = cheaper stock, regardless of how many times you explain to them that one's got nothing to do with the other) and a liquidity reason (more shares outstanding drives a more liquid market and tighter bid/ask spreads, as well as higher trading volume which institutional brokers getting per-share commissions obviously like.) All silly IMO, but just add that to the list of inanities that make up our financial markets, right? :rolleyes:
    �
  • May 17, 2013
    SteveG3
  • May 17, 2013
    mulder1231
    Wow, three price target adjustments from Morgan Stanley within one week!

    From $47 to $77 to $103 and now $109. What will it be after the SuperCharger announcement...
    �
  • May 20, 2013
    ckessel
    The new Trefis valuation at $71 repeats the same mistake I see over and over from analysts:
    They just don't get it, Tesla isn't competing in the EV market. Their analysis is flawed right from the beginning. I could actually see a $71 valuation based on other risks, like execution, supplier issues, etc, but that's not where they're coming from.
    �
  • May 20, 2013
    Norse
    if the EV market is 3% in 2024, then it must be because of hydrogen-cars. I just dont see that happening.

    I think the EV market is closer to 30% in 2024, hopefulyy above.
    �
  • May 20, 2013
    Citizen-T
    The age-old mistake of staring right at an exponential curve and mistaking it for a linear one because it too early to tell the difference. This is why companies get blind-sided by change. They watch something grow slowly for 10 years and make a linear projection that says they don't need to worry about it for about 50 years. Five years later they are bankrupt.
    �
  • May 20, 2013
    Johan
    +1!

    The Law of Accelerating Returns | KurzweilAI

    (Those who are familiar with Kurweil know he sometimes can be a little bit conceeded and over-the-top, but the guy does provide some good insight to the future)

    An example from his essay, on the growth of the internet:

    �
  • Jun 3, 2013
    Soflason
    Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas once again stepping up big on CNBC citing TSLA as the top pick in the sector with a new price target of 109 even in the face of the stock diving today... very encouraging, really stands his ground:
    Tesla Stock Could Hit $109, Analyst Says
    �
  • Jun 3, 2013
    moltenfire

    He also uses a 15 year discounted cash flow model. What is the significance of 15 years?
    �
  • Jun 3, 2013
    DaveT
    Yeah I watched his interview and it was encouraging. Especially when he said that volatility works both ways. TSLA stock will come back from this recent sell-off.
    �
  • Jun 3, 2013
    ShortSlaver
    It no doubt will. It's a matter of when.

    This stock has showen this pattern a few times over the last month. Shoots way up, hits a wall hard and falls back pretty hard. Stabilizes and creeps up before jumping again. Was going this before the earnings call when it cracked $50 even. Has done this about 3 times since too.
    �
  • Jun 3, 2013
    ModelS8794
    in Adam's own words:

    �
  • Jun 4, 2013
    kenliles
    I'm a little surprised at some of these similar posts. From a year sitting in low to mid thirties to a > 200% run up in a few weeks (squeezing out half the short positions); Characterizing a 20% correction even a pullback, much less volatile seems like a reaction that's..... well more volatile than TSLA itself! Ha :). It does give me a chuckle though
    �
  • Jun 12, 2013
    Soflason
  • Jul 26, 2013
    johnnydop
    Deutsche Bank Research Report- "Only Just Begun; Upgrading to Buy"

    Here's the text of the report without the charts or tables. I have the PDF if anyone wants it. Enjoy, its very thorough.

    EDIT:

    I removed the report from this post, dont want the forum to get into any copyright issues. PM me if you want the text.
    �
  • Jul 26, 2013
    imherkimer
    Wow! That is a fantastic read. Thanks, Johnny, for posting the whole article. This, combined with Q2 earnings beat ....
    �
  • Jul 26, 2013
    Amitch1
  • Jul 26, 2013
    NigelM
    Interesting that we started this thread on 2/25...

    And almost exactly five months later DB has a new target of $160.
    �
  • Jul 26, 2013
    StapleGun
    Just read through the Deutsche bank report. They make a very strong case for a $280/share price by 2016. However, I found it weird that they seemed hesitant to raise any Q2 projections above Tesla's guidance even though Q3 and beyond all seemed to be revised generously upwards. This despite the fact that they claimed several times that the average production in Q2 was around 500 vehicles/week, or about a 6,000 vehicle/quarter pace.
    �
  • Jul 28, 2013
    blakegallagher
    They may want to give the bears something to hang onto ..... :) It sounds as if anyone who actually reads their report will expect an upside for q2 ... but if you are a bear and looking for something to hang onto you can still hope for a q2 loss.
    �
  • Jul 29, 2013
    Bgarret
    On yahoo there is a blog post with discussion of Q2 earnings and a "reaffirming" of their price target of a revenue number of $385 million and a -.21 EPS. http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2013/07/29/tesla-rises-as-bmw-unveils-electric-car-wedbush-sees-in-line-q2/?mod=yahoobarrons

    Can someone enlighten me on the disconnect between "analysts" and the information that is readily available on this site...a couple of examples:

    1. "the factory will produce around 5,000 vehicles, but hundreds will still be in transit to Europe"
    2. "we model 2Q13 delivery of 4700 Model S vehicles, with gross margins of 18.0%"
    3. "We expect Tesla to report essentially in-line 2Q13 results. We are looking for 2Q13 rev/EPS of $385m/($.21)"
    (I am assuming they mean GAAP revenue and EPS)
    4. No discussion of lease accounting or ZEV credits
    5. No discussion of production rates or demand

    In addition to basing their numbers on some shaky rationale, if you assume a $385m revenue a ($.21) loss per share, and GM of 18%, then:

    1.To balance revenue, Gross Margin, ZEV and expenses, it would model out to assumptions of (4700 cars) x ($75k/car - non-ZEV) x (.18 Gross Margin), $25m of ZEV credits and $115m of expenses = $385m revenue and (.21)/share

    or

    2.With $60million in ZEV you have a revenue/car # of about $69k (down from $113k in the first quarter) to get to the revenue estimate of $385m

    and

    3. you would need a revenue/car of low $20k to get to negative EPS. If you start with 60% of your R&D and SG&A paid for by credits, it is difficult to get a negative EPS (see Q1 2013).

    or.....


    You kind of get the picture. I was wondering how the consensus estimate could be $396m in revenue and (.16) in EPS....I think the analysts are putting in random numbers to meet their assumptions and then justifying them with terms like "headwinds", "underabsorption of overhead", etc.

    2 things stand out from this "reaffirming"

    1. TMC should be mandatory reading for analysts
    2. If the shorts are following analyst guidance, then the slaughter will continue.
    �
  • Jul 29, 2013
    Johan
    Shh! Don't tell them. Let them short. And then short some more. And as the price reaches an ATH (as today) short some more!

    Also, I agree I don't get how they come up with their negative number. I think they just decided on the fact that Q2 was going to be a loss and then made their model come up with that.
    �
  • Jul 30, 2013
    Curt Renz
  • Jul 30, 2013
    Acmykguy
    So Curt, what is your price target after earnings are released? Do you see a sell on news? Do you see a squeeze and go up to the next Fibonacci level?
    �
  • Aug 13, 2013
    blakegallagher
    Lazard capital downgrade report wanted

    If anyone has the actual report please message me I would love to read why they feel a downgrade was necessary
    �
  • Aug 13, 2013
    ppl
    I do not have a copy of report but they went to hold not sell. Downside risk higher with the run up. I am long but also believe that it has risen too quickly. I doubt new news until end of q3 so I suspect it will drift to 140 range. I don't see this approaching 160 until Q3 report approaches.
    �
  • Aug 14, 2013
    Convert2013
    I agree with ppl. Price has gone up too quickly in the past 3 months. We need a breather and somewhere in the 140's/low 150's is a nice breather point and I don't see the stock above 175 before year end.
    �
  • Sep 9, 2013
    NigelM
    Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) EPS Estimate Reduced By Barclays

    More on the link.... http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-eps-estimate/
    �
  • Sep 11, 2013
    Norse
  • Sep 11, 2013
    mershaw2001
    I don't get how you can say it's downgraded. The market, with the exception of apple, was up pretty decently today and yet tesla took a 1.72% loss. I think the constant beats are taking the steam out of its momentum
    �
  • Sep 11, 2013
    Norse
  • Sep 14, 2013
    Jackl1956
    O'Neil Equity Research

    Recently, O'Neil Equity Research published a "special report" on Tesla Motors. The report identifies a number of companies with historically rare and powerful chart patterns. They project a TSLA price target of $322 a share.

    1. William O'Neil was the youngest man to ever purchase a chair on the NYSE.

    2. William O'Neil founded Investor's Business, which later became Investor's Business Daily.

    3. William O'Neil developed the CANSLIM methodology for picking high growth stocks, and made hundreds of millions dollars.

    I am a little surprised this report is not getting more media attention.
    �
  • Sep 14, 2013
    andrewt3000
  • Sep 14, 2013
    Convert2013

    Good idea to have a separate thread on this. Here's the article:

    http://www.williamoneil.com/reports/Tesla.pdf
    �
  • Sep 14, 2013
    Jackl1956
  • Sep 14, 2013
    Jhall118
    I totally agree that Tesla is going to make another very big run-up. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced.

    I believe the run from 40-150 was about a few things:

    1) Tesla posted a profit despite a lot of wall street thinking they wouldn't (e.g. Wall street underestimated their earnings).
    2) Tesla makes a great product
    3) There was a lot of disagreement that really polarized opinions. One group thought Tesla would make it, the other thought Tesla would absolutely fail. The shorts were wrong and the squeeze happened.

    Looking at TSLA today, what has changed? The product is still great. The plan is still great. A LOT of people are still shorting the stock. Unless something tragic happens, all these shorts are going to have to cover. When Q3 ER isn't bad, Q1 is going to happen all over again.

    Tesla isn't really that much more "overvalued" at a 30B or 40B market cap than it is currently at a 20B market cap. In the minds of investors, they all want to jump on now because they believe Tesla will be disruptive. I think Tesla has a lot more growth coming by the end of the year.
    �
  • Sep 14, 2013
    AlMc
    I agree with you...but I think Q3 will blow out the expectations of investment advisors . Demand still outstrips supply for the S in the US.. Production numbers indicate that it is possible that we will have the amount delivered at the end of Q3 being equal to the projections for the entire 2013 year. Gross margins heading more towards the magic 25% mark by eoy. News/guidance that Asian and European reservations are 'big' and battery constraints/bottleneck is being controlled. Reservations growing on the 'X'.


    Look out shorts could be a second tsunami.
    �
  • Sep 14, 2013
    sleepyhead
    Just wanted to point out that O'Neil research is a little late with calling this High, Tight Flag Pattern. The buy signal according to this pattern was on July 1st when TSLA broke out above $115. Since then the stock has moved up another 50%.
    �
  • Sep 14, 2013
    Jonathan Hewitt
    Late is better than never ;) At least they predict that it should continue going up, unlike the shorts who think the stock is DOOMED and OVERVALUED! Oh no!
    �
  • Sep 14, 2013
    ongba
    Does anyone have any experience with this Oneil Equity Research, ie is it worth subscribing to, and if so, what is the cost? Thanks.
    �
  • Sep 15, 2013
    Ryo
    So if this report is accurate Tesla will hit at least $322 per share. If we assume it will do in the average time frame of stocks that have previously fit this high, tight flag pattern - 29 weeks - then that leaves us 18 weeks remaining (since 11 has passed since forming the flag). This puts us in the second half of January 2014 @ 322/share or higher.

    (1) Does anyone really think TSLA could see these gains in this timeframe?
    (2) Assuming you think this is possible and you're willing to speculate a small portion of your portfolio to maximize gains from this event. What would you do? Way OTM options I assume?
    �
  • Sep 15, 2013
    DaveT
    Actually IBD Leaderboard (another service set up by O'neil) called the high tight flag pattern while TSLA was at $105 and encouraged investors to pour in if it broke through $115, which it did.

    On a side note, IBD Leaderboard has been keeping TSLA as a one of the twenty or so "market leaders" they feature since it was at $105 w/the high, tight flag pattern. But after that $115 buy recommendation, they haven't been able to issue another buy recommendation since saying the stock is overextended from their previously $115 buy recommendation.

    But just Friday, IBD Leaderboard made this note to TSLA:
    "Tesla Motors has formed a new buy setup after its recent huge run-up. It's now in a three-weeks-tight pattern with a 173.80 buy point. It's also still 44% past its 115 buy point from a rare high-tight-flag pattern. The stock had been trading tightly after running sharply higher in recent months -- a sign of support."

    So, basically they're making a buy point recommendation at $173.80.

    This is huge because a lot of people follow IBD and their Leaderboard. And a lot of traders are going to be talking about this number, $173.80, now since IBD has given their buy point recommendation. This will (or at least should) build anticipation.
    �
  • Sep 16, 2013
    Wanabee
    Tesla Motors Gains 2% on Potential Battery Boost

    The article, from Barron's Stocks To Watch column today, quotes
    from a Global Equities Research report by Trip Chowdhry and team:

    Tesla is creating a new Transport-as-a-Service industry,
    which is probably about a $100 Billion Industry. Over the
    next 5 years, we think, Tesla may capture about 60% of
    this Industry. Innovation velocity at Tesla far exceeds
    that of other Hyper Growth Companies such as Amazon.com
    and Salesforce.com.?

    Chowdhry raised his price target on Tesla to $225 from $150.

    On a separate note, I see that Tesla is filing patent applications
    for combining hybrid air and non-air batteries with controls to
    maximize range.
    �
  • Sep 16, 2013
    blakegallagher
    Hey, welcome to the forum. Great first post.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    Convert2013
  • Sep 18, 2013
    bareyb
    I've only bought one stock in my entire life and that was APPL when Gil Amelio was doing his best to destroy the company. I now feel compelled to invest again in TSLA. Is it too late to get in? Can I make money on the stock long term?
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    sleepyhead
    Long term you will see $500+ by the end of this decade for sure; unless the global economy goes into depression.

    In the short run, you might see a dip here and there, and if we hit a recession next year you might even see sub $100 pricing - although very doubtful at this point.

    But if we do have a recession in 2014/15 and another bull market in 2016 - 2020, then you will probably see TSLA at $1000 by 2020.

    It is a great buy long term, i.e. 5 - 10 years.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    bareyb
    I think we are going to do it before it goes any higher.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    sleepyhead
    If we don't see a recession then your next entry point might be $200 very shortly.
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    bareyb
    Kinda makes me wish I'd jumped on it last year when it first appeared on my radar. Unfortunately by the time I became fully aware of what was happening, so had everyone else...
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    AlMc
    I have been telling my brother for the last 6 months to buy TSLA. He keeps waiting for the 'big dip'......I have starting calling him a BIG DIP for not investing sooner. he is still on the sidelines??:biggrin:
    �
  • Sep 18, 2013
    blakegallagher
    Its ok you are still not too late. There are more people than ever misinformed about TSLA and thinking it is overvalued. If you are willing to hold now , it will look like a great entry point 5 years from now ... recession or not.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2013
    bareyb
    We just bought 30 shares. Not a whole lot, but at least we are in. We got in at $179.00
    �
  • Sep 19, 2013
    AlMc
    welcome to the club.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2013
    Convert2013
    Yes welcome to the party. Medium term we will double bag, long term we will 10-bag, so hold on tight.
    �
  • Sep 19, 2013
    bareyb
    Look at that spike today... :D

    - - - Updated - - -

    That would be awesome. Thanks!
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)