May 9, 2015
Johan So I've been giving this a lot of thought after the ER. There are many things to consider: the current yield market where there is a lot of money looking for a good investment, the words of Deepak about beeing free cash flow positive and self-financed from Q4 but at the same time the possibilites of even quicker expansion of the Gigafactory and perhaps building of GF 2 and 3 sooner than expected due to a flood of demand for Tesla Energy products. Will Elon set up for a big beat and surge in stock price in Q3 or Q4, and use this as an opportunity to raise capital? I'm thinking this is more and more likely. I've cast mye vote.�
May 9, 2015
RobStark I say Q1 2016 at the earliest after they show they are free cash flow positive and are not desperate.
Looking for cash on Wall Street when many Wall Streeters think you are desperate for cash is not the best time to do a capital raise.�
May 10, 2015
Lerxt I think they are going to have to look this year as they look like they are at risk of running out of cash by the end of the year. if the slightest thing goes wrong they would be in trouble.�
May 10, 2015
32no Deepak guided for less than $1 billion cash "burn" (or rather cash deployment, in the words of vgrinshpun) this year on $1.5 billion in CapEx. The difference will probably be from cash flow positive Q4. Tesla had $1.9 billion in cash at the end of 2014, and based on Deepak's guidance, should have $900 million left by the end of 2015. Also, Tesla will be producing and delivering Model S and X at such high volumes that they will be consistently cash flow positive in 2016, so I don't see any reason they would need to raise capital other than as a buffer. Even if they want a buffer, I doubt they would do it in 2015. They will probably do it in 2016 after revealing a concept Model 3, taking deposits, and then announcing that they will need to fund Gigafactory 2 because Model S, Model X, Model 3 demand and Stationary storage demand are all too high for one Gigafactory. They will not only raise Gigafactory money at that time, but also buffer money. Probably on the order of $3-4 billion overall.�
May 10, 2015
RobStark On top of the cash Tesla has they also have self-financed leases they can commoditize. Several hundred million.
They are not in danger of running out of cash.
If they are planning on building GF2 THIS year then they will probably do a capital raise.
If not they can wait at least 9 months.�
May 10, 2015
32no Do you mean "capitalize"? :wink:�
May 10, 2015
rolosrevenge Can a moderator please change the "at" in the title to an "a"?�
May 11, 2015
Lerxt The key point here is that they will be producing Model X and S at high rates. It is entirely within the realms of possibility that the X will not be produced in huge numbers this year. There could easily be a delay that great to restricts production until next year. Not to mention a delay in stationary battery production.�
May 11, 2015
RobStark Nope.�
May 11, 2015
AlMc I think they should do one but I believe senior management wants to show that they can execute and through that execution become cash flow positive in the 4th quarter. IF they decide to raise cash before Q4ER it will only happen because they have decided to build another GF.�
May 11, 2015
32no To commoditize is to turn into a commodity, or "a raw material or primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold".
To capitalize is to turn something into capital. I have never seen the phrase "commoditize leases", it seems that the correct phrase is "capitalize leases". Deepak referred to it as "securitization". I think either is correct, but I doubt "commoditize" is.�
May 11, 2015
Jonathan Hewitt I agree with those in the "only if they want to start Gigafactory 2" camp. Could happen this year but I don't think that's likely.�
May 11, 2015
pGo I think it is very likely that they will raise money before q4 starts. Even if they have enough money to keep the operations and investment flowing at their desired place, I think around q3, the margin of error reduces drastically as model x ramp is unknown to the company as well. Tesla did raise money as buffer before the S went into full production. Times are different, but scale is different too.
Ideally I would like them to raise money after opening registration for Model 3, but the amount of spending has me worried a bit. Yes the spending is necessary but the company is realizing even more urgency to a bigger GF. We'll see that reasoning as well as Model 3 as the basis for new funding.
IMO this is not a bad news as long as they stay true to their cash flow positive guidance and stay in positive territory from there on.�
May 11, 2015
Quant i would like them to raise capital now! The best time to seek capital is when you don't need it right now! When you have cushion for at least 6 months.
You do not want to go the capital markets looking to raise capital when you are running short and have less than 6 months of your cash need projections, and that is assuming the world in general, and the capital markets in particular, are stable.
I believe Tesla should seek to add a minimum of $0.5 - $ 1.0 Billion in credit lines, based on inventory etc as collateral, AND also raise more convertible debt. Probably another $ 1 billion in convertible debt, so a total increase of $1.5 Billion to $ 2 billion in balance sheet capacity.
I strongly suggest TSLA do it now! The stock may temporally go to $220 or so, but it will bounce back, because this will actually be a good thing and increase overall investor confidence and $ 1 Billion in convert is only slightly dilutionary, maybe 3-5 %.�
May 11, 2015
Lump I predict a capital raise will occure when Model X hype is in full force, sometime between the reveal & customer deliveries.�
May 11, 2015
Johan This is my thinking too. "Strike while the iron is hot". On the last call one of the most surprising pieces of information, to me, was how Elon talked in detail about the production ramp of Model X. He clearly has this idea that they will be able to ramp up production of Model X a lot quicker than they ramped up with Model S. More or less, he said the X could be in full production during Q4 ("as many X as S built) and he was talking about it all depends on where the ramp up curve is situated with regards to quarters if we will see a small or large effect of this in the full year of 2015 or not. It could be the set up for a big beat in Q4, that would be announced in Q3 if they feel confident they will make it. That coupled with a lot of orders for PowerPacks and great reviews for Model X will set things up very nicely. The capital raise will be by selling debt, not stock, IMO.
We will know when Elon changes his Twitter pic to this:
or this:
or something similar.
Edit:Yeah and one more thing: Remeber how they said "No, we're not going to raise capital" one week before they did, in 2013? So I wouldn't rely to much on what's being said about this right now.�
May 11, 2015
Familial Rhino I remember it very well, and they didn't say that. What Elon said on the call was that while they weren't planning to raise capital, they would be "opportunistic" about it. That opportunity came much sooner than expected.�
May 11, 2015
Johan Yes you're correct. That was the opening he left that time. But to say "we aren't planning on it" and then one week later they announce it... They don't expect us to believe they made the decision on Tuesday and the whole thing was ready to be announced on Friday?�
May 11, 2015
Familial Rhino It's possible they had the plan in place, but only intended to execute it under much better terms than what appeared to be possible on that Tuesday. As I recall, the subsequent jump in stock price was dramatic both in magnitude and speed, possibly exceeding their wildest expectations, so they seized the moment.�
May 11, 2015
maoing Q4 beat is much harder than Q2/Q3. With Elon's response for model X production ramp question in Q1 CC below, I tend to believe the chance of miss is much larger than beat unfortunately.
- - - Updated - - -
What's the short term events in next a few months in order to hype the stock?
1) Q2 delivery beat at beginning of July; (highly possible with lowballed guidance)
2) Model X open configuration in July; (highly possible from Elon's comments in Q1 CC)
3) positive Q ER at the end of July; (highly possible based on #1)
4) model X delivery in September; (very possible from the Q1 shareholder letter, but could be delayed again)
5) energy storage delivery; (highly possible somewhere in Q3)
I smell some great trading opportunities to time this captical raise.
- - - Updated - - -
Similar feeling. It's likely to be in August or September. Any good strategy for trading? Buy September and Jan. call?
�
May 11, 2015
maoing How Tesla Would Raise $3 Billion More for Second Gigafactory for Stationary Storage�
May 11, 2015
SteveG3 maoing that's a piece written by Anton Wahlman... yup, the very guy whose called about 6 different cars individually "Tesla Killers" (from the i3 to the Dodge Charger). Anton's short the stock, and that's his business, but his writing is nothing but an advertisement for his short position.
The article starts with a sentence that makes his calling the i3 a "Tesla Killer" sound tame. For laughs, here's how Anton begins his piece:
"There is no more urgent situation requiring the spin that only a high-powered centrifuge could provide thanTesla's (TSLA - Get Report)need to raise additional capital."
It's not at all clear that Tesla even needs a capital raise, so it's rather likely a 2015 cap raise is not even going to be a situation, let alone a situation more urgent than any other. One great thing about Anton, he makes his partisanship so obvious with his miles over-the-top language, his writing would likely raise a red flag for even someone who literally has never heard of Tesla before.�
May 11, 2015
EarlyAdopter Yes, absolutely. Capital issuances through big investment banks like Goldman can be structured in a day and sold through the next.�
May 11, 2015
Quant Very True! With many global Fed equivalents in easing mode, but Greece up in the air and Our Fed contemplating raising rates, why wait for 3 or 6 months? Does not make sense to me to time it so tight, if cash burn this coming quarter will also be ovet $ 400 Million.
Raise the capital now, shore up the cash position on the balance sheet, particularly given Gigafactory for batteries may need more capacity.
Stock price may go down for a few days, but bounce back quickly and may even trigger a short squeeze.
IMO, the wise thing to do! One never knows what world events or weather or earthquake or whatever could happen ( low probability, yes for sure), but just get it out of the way and focus solely on production ramp for X and battery production start up!
This is just not worth risking for 3-6 months and maybe another $10-$20 rise in price, from here.
Wisdom, my friends!�
May 13, 2015
neroden It would be wise for Tesla to do a capital raise, through stock issuance, at a time when the stock is high, in order to finance further expansion even faster. I don't have any real idea whether they will, but given the enormous capital investment rate, and the relatively high interest rates Tesla has to pay on bonds, it would make a lot of sense.�
May 13, 2015
Johan Thanks for this, interesting. So I'm guessing they could "suddenly" choose to raise capital if the stars align.�
May 13, 2015
techmaven I think Tesla's plan is to get to free cash flow positive before doing a cash raise. I've been meaning to write this and it isn't in response to anyone in particular... here goes:
The 2014 annual report Form 10-K says this:
Their cash at time of that statement was $1.9 billion. I'm puzzled why people are freaking out now that they intend on spending $1.5 billion in capex this year as if it was something new.
It goes back to a predominate misconception that Tesla is spent about $500 million in capex last quarter to support selling about 10k vehicles. Hence the whole "selling cars at a loss" meme. That capex was spent in chunks to support selling 20-25k vehicles a quarter (Model X production line, sales/service/supercharger expansion) and 50k a quarter (Model 3 initial launch via Gigafactory/paint shop) and 125k a quarter (paint shop to handle 500k annual cars). This spend is in advance of huge revenue growth.
Tesla doesn't have to do this high capex expansion... they could be less aggressive, which would make their balance sheet look better and the rest of the car industry and the stationary storage industry could breathe a sigh of relief. But no... that's not how Elon Musk or Tesla rolls.
During the Q1 ER conference call, Mr. Ahuja casually mentions:
Ah, on an operations basis, in Q1, they were a little better than break even.
As for capex spend, the big spending this year drops to a trickle at some point. The Model X production line has an end cost. The paint shop upgrade has an end cost. These costs taper off dramatically in Q3.
Later, Mr. Ahuja gave this answer when Mr. Brinkman of JP Morgan asked about free cash flow:
The plan is to achieve production of the Model X without a capital raise.
To get there, there are a number of moving parts that might cause them issues including any further delay in the Model X, a slower ramp up on the Model X, or a external financial market meltdown. Therefore, the plan might have to change and they might need some short term bridge financing. Possible actions include:
1) Take out loans against assets, and it appears that the CFO already has plans to do this. At the end of Q1, they had $370 million in raw materials, $492 million in finished goods, and $2.5 billion in property, plants, and equipment. They might end up paying dearly for such short term financing on a relative basis, but it would be worth it if they had to do it.
2) back off of capex spending. They can't back off any Model X capex spending, as that is necessary to reach the doubling of revenues. So, they can back off some of the 5% of the capex which is Supercharger expansion ($75 million per year) and the $300 million this year for Gigafactory #1 phase 1. Gigafactory capital spend might be front loaded this year, as they expect cells in early 2016. Which means the shell for phase 1 is done significantly earlier than the end of this year and Panasonic's spend goes up as they install manufacturing equipment. Model S battery pack assembly equipment might get delayed, as could stationary storage assembly into 2016. They could also back off service center and gallery expansion.
3) Do a capital raise.
Now, if the financials warrant it or the external market conditions warrant it, they could do raise before this whole scenario in order to grow even more aggressively - basically, Gigafactory #2 and Tilburg factory expansion makes sense as the next big things to do. They can add a Model S battery pack assembly plant somewhere in Asia - possibly very close to the Panasonic plants in Osaka that churn out Model S cells. Remember, Panasonic's Osaka plants are expected to at least churn out a cell output level equivalent to Gigafactory #1 phase 1, so in essence, the Panasonic factories are Gigafactory #0, phase 1 without the battery pack assembly part. Then battery packs for Europe and Asia never need to transit through the U.S. at all. They could also do far more assembly in Tilburg where they have already leased a new, much larger building.�
May 13, 2015
uselesslogin I agree completely techmaven. By the time step 3 comes around the stock price will be quite a bit higher.�
May 13, 2015
Johan Your thinking makes sense techmaven.
But the question for me becomes: if there is room for even more aggressive growth, then why not do it if the market is willing to inject more capital on terms favorable to Tesla?
I understand that some things are progressing as fast as possible: MX production start/ramp, Model 3 development, Gigafactory #1. These thing can't be accelerated further, no matter how much money is thrown at the problem.
But it does seem to me that the interest and addressable market for stationary storage may have been underestimated, even by Tesla. This makes for a huge opportunity for even more "reckless growth" (as they say in Qu�b�cois). It seems that would be less of an engineering/technology development problem but more the sort of thing that could actually be accelerated by injecting money: namely building Gigafactory 2 and 3 sooner than earlier planned.�
May 13, 2015
uselesslogin Is he Qu�b�cois? He studied in Paris and Madrid so I was assuming European and for that matter Spanish based on the last name. Also es.wikipedia.com is apparently the only wikipedia with him in it. But honestly I don't know where he is from and the wiki page doesn't say.
Jerome Guillen - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre�
May 13, 2015
Johan Yeah I think he's French. Studied in Paris and Spain l, then doctorate from U of Michigan. I just had this idea that he was spending a lit of time in Quebec nowadays but I'm not sure where I have it from.�
May 24, 2015
LargeHamCollider I think it was mentioned elsewhere on TMC but deposits for Model 3 in March 2016 could constitute a significant raise. I'd guess 100,000-500,000 pre-orders in the first year which, at ~$3,500 each, would be .35B to 1.75B.�
May 24, 2015
ggr I don't think that the deposit for a Model 3 will be anywhere near $3500. People who are waiting for something comparable to a low end BMW 3 series or Merc C class are not used to putting down any deposit at all, or at most $1000 if they want it built to their exact specification.�
May 24, 2015
Johan Customer deposits are fully refundable. Invest all that money in Gigafactory 2, Fremont expansion or whatever else and then try to explain your balance sheet to the shareholders and the SEC...�
May 24, 2015
Runarbt <- this! This money cant be spent.:-/�
May 24, 2015
RobStark 100% nor 50% will ask for refund. Maybe 5-10%.�
May 25, 2015
bonaire Make it non-refundable. $2-3K or whatever. I think by now people who put down the deposit are interested in taking delivery and those who back out, should know up-front that it is not refundable. That way - you can utilize the funds for other purposes.�
May 25, 2015
Cosmacelf While it must be put in a segregated account and not be spent, I wonder if you could use it as collateral and borrow against it. At the very least, a robust order balance would allow more corporate borrowing.�
May 25, 2015
Matias Why would consumers be willing to put down some deposit?�
May 25, 2015
Cosmacelf Almost all US dealers across all brands require a $1K deposit when ordering a custom car and since all Tesla's are made to order, requiring a deposit isn't unusual. Having said that, I wonder if Tesla will try to increase sales volume by having some in stock models. Perhaps the CPO program and website is a precursor to have a similar system for store stocked cars.�
May 25, 2015
Matias Ok. This the first car that I have put deposit.�
May 25, 2015
austinEV That is not necessarily true. They spent the Model S money. It was technically refundable unless everyone tried to do it. That is, they were refundable as long as TM didn't go out of business, which it didn't.�
May 25, 2015
Johan But if everyone had cancelled their order Tesla would have gone out of business, and as a result of the bankruptcy all the reservation holder would have to get in line together with all other creditors as the bankruptcy handlers sold of all the assets, including the Fremont plant etc, to try and scrape up as much as possible.
I agree with Cosmacelf; the money needs to go in an escrow account but by taking up a loan against it you'd get a very good deal on that loan as the cancellation rate would be expected to be low and if the escrow account contains piles of reservation money it sends a strong signal about solid demand and low risk.�
May 25, 2015
drinkerofkoolaid My bet is Tesla will do an opportunistic capital raise if Tesla's stock doubles, triples , or quadruples, in a VERY short period of time. I think at this stage, Tesla would have no problem finding a few wealthy people or large companies that would be thrilled to invest in a Tesla project.�
May 25, 2015
neroden Well, OK, so Tesla goes free-cash-flow positive, the stock takes a huge jump upwards as the news comes out...
...at that point I'd do a capital raise. Tesla still has astounding amounts of capital needs.
- They need to expand the Gigafactory, because battery demand is higher than expected
- They still need to build a lot more Superchargers
- They need to open a hell of a lot more Service Centers
- They need to finance a lot of solar panels to fulfill the promise of "solar powered Superchargers"
- They'll want to connect the Gigafactory to the not-quite-adjacent rail line to cut transportation costs
And worse...
- In order to achieve Musk's promise of North American raw materials sourcing for the Gigafactory, they need to secure sufficient North American supplies of lithium, cobalt, and graphite, and this requires *opening mines which are closed or idled* which *do not currently have capital financing*. Which means they're going to have to make sure those mines get their financing. (The other minerals appear to be available in sufficient volume from existing sources).
This is a lot of capital needs. Some of it isn't going to be done directly by Tesla, but there's a LOT of capital needed. If I were them I'd be planning to sell more stock -- preferably at a high stock price, so if they're expecting stock to go up after Model X deliveries start, they might want to wait to issue the stock until then.
The interest is a bad thing.
NO NO NO! They mustn't do this. Tesla needs to keep expanding very quickly. The Supercharger network needs to be nearly-complete when Model 3 comes out. They need to quadruple the number of Service Centers and scatter them across the country -- before the Model 3 comes out. They need the Gigafactory to be producing at a sufficient rate to supply the Model 3 pipeline...
They really mustn't. Failure to expand service centers would be disastrous for sales, especially with the cutbacks in Ranger service.
This is the correct thing to do. There's a very long list of capital needs, well in excess of a billion dollars, and they need to be done well before they can be paid for entirely from internally generated cash. Some may be limited by factors other than money (training time etc.) but I strongly suspect the Service Center expansion is actually limited by money, and I know that the domestic sourcing of raw materials for batteries is money-limited. The only question is when and how much -- obviously Tesla wants to dilute the stock as little as possible, pay as little interest as possible, and raise as much money as possible.
�
May 25, 2015
LargeHamCollider I suspect the chair of Solar City could find an acceptable way to make it work.�
May 26, 2015
dalalsid To guarantee a spot in what is likely to become a multi-year queue.�
Jun 6, 2015
32no I actually looked into this. It turns out that customer deposits that Tesla takes in are all sources of cash and go straight to the "Cash and Cash Equivalents" line on the balance sheet. This is evidenced in the most recent 10-Q, which states the following in the "Liquidity and Capital Resources" section:
That cash can then be spent as part of Capital Expenditures (CapEx) which is by definition, the purchase of property and equipment. That expensed cash will then move from the "Cash and Cash Equivalents" asset line to the "Property and Equipment" asset line on the balance sheet and will begin depreciating. Therefore, it is okay for Tesla to spend this cash because the expensed cash is still an asset that can be liquidated if the customer deposits need to be returned.
As for the question of whether Tesla will need to do a capital raise any time soon, assuming the fact that Tesla will be cash flow positive from Q4 on and the fact that Model 3 deposits will come some time in 2016 and give a cash boost is not evidence enough that Tesla doesn't need a capital raise, is still somewhat unanswered... By people on this forum. But Tesla, on the other hand, has answered these questions in the very same "Liquidity and Capital Resources" section of the 10-Q (and 10-K) that I referenced earlier. Just check out the changes in the wording over time:
November 7, 2014:
February 26, 2015:
May 11, 2015:
Tesla has grown more confident (and remains that way) about their capital resources and is confident that they will have "adequate liquidity over the next 12 months", and has stopped writing "We may seek additional capital resources to partially fund certain long-term growth initiatives" in this section. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Tesla will do a capital raise any time soon.�
Jun 6, 2015
techmaven Nice research. I think they might have to do a raise only if something really goes wrong with the Model X launch.�
Jun 8, 2015
jhm Blind Faith Price Targets - Page 3
Generally, I am in the no capital raise camp, but consideration of advancing the stationary business raises questions. I estimate that in 2019 about 40 GWh productive capacity will be needed if auto uses 2/3 of this capacity. However, if stationary comes to need 2/3 of the capacity, then about 60 GWh of capacity is needed at this time. See link above for details. Thus, on a nominal 50% growth trajectory, advancing stationary could speed up the time line to Gigafactory 2 by a whole year. Alternatively expanding Gigafactory 1 from 50 to 75 has the same effect as accelerating the time frame by a year, but only one year.
So as we look at prior statements from Tesla about capital adequacy, we need to question whether these statements assumed 1/3 stationary or 2/3 stationary mix. If we jump to the latter, this means advancing the GF roll out by a year. What was adequate cash flow for 1/3 stationary might not be adequate for 2/3 stationary. If the business model has truly changed in this way, we need to know it.�
Jun 12, 2015
Quant TESLA announces NEW REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY!!!
Tesla just filed SEC docs this evening announcing a revolving credit facility up to $ 900 Million, good for 5 years. This is a syndicated facility under pretty decent terms.�
Jun 12, 2015
RobStark "The filing said the revolving line of credit, secured by property, inventory and equipment owned by Tesla, was for $500 million but could be extended to $750 million by meeting certain conditions.
The filing said the agreement was with Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley,Wells Fargo and Credit Suisse."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-motors-obtains-credit-line-from-five-banks-1434147236
�
Jun 12, 2015
Cosmacelf Out of curiosity, what is the interest rate on the loan?�
Jun 12, 2015
32no It's a floating rate, meaning it will be variable with the market.�
Jun 12, 2015
Cosmacelf Yes, but at what premium, like libor plus what?�
Jun 12, 2015
RobStark 'Availability under the Credit Facility will be based upon periodic borrowing base certifications valuing certain of the Borrowers� inventory,accounts receivable and equipment, as reduced by certain reserves. Outstanding borrowings accrue interest at floating rates plus an applicablemargin of 1.0% for LIBOR rate loans, and 0.0% for base rate loans. The commitment fee payable on the unused portion of the Credit Facilityequals 0.25% per annum based on utilization of the Credit Facility.'�
Aug 5, 2015
Johan Deepak speaking on Q2 call: No need for raise now, credit line largelgy unused, "we are comfortable with the cash levels". Elon: "There is not a need to raise capital, but there could be value as a risk reduction".
My take: they are not planning on it but could take advantage of high stock price, and are not ruling it out.�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark They have drawn $50M of the $750M credit line.
They are comfortable with $1B cash position.�
Aug 5, 2015
Johan Interesting. Elon getting pressured on Q2 call by Robert Kallo from Baird: "Please set the record straight. Will you do a capital raise in the near term, or not". Elon: "We can't comment on that. Next question".�
Aug 5, 2015
SteveG3 I think they want to see what combined ongoing S/X demand is. They more or less lowered 2016 guidance from 100K+ to 80-90K. I wouldn't be surprised if at the time they suggested entering 2016 at at 100K run rate, they thought 130K or more vehicles per year was a likely demand level in the out years. It's still possible, but they are more cautious about it. That's probably about a $500 million difference in cash available to spend on expansion (GF, Model 3, etc), each year depending on whether demand turns out to be more like 80K or 130K.�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark Interpreted the non-answer as a summary of what they just said.
They don't NEED a capital raise.
But they can deploy added capital efficiently and if terms of acquiring new capital are "compelling" then they will acquire new capital.
So they can't give a definitive NO.�
Aug 13, 2015
Jonathan Hewitt Congrats to the 10 people who said "yes, by issuing stock." I was not one of them.�
Aug 13, 2015
BoerumHill Polls are still open. I predict that number will rise.�
Aug 13, 2015
Johan Let's just make a mental snapshot of what Jonathan said
As the OP I can't close the poll, not that I care a lot either. We had some good discussion and it seems I was correct, but not in the way I envisioned it (I thought they'd set themselves up for a big beat in Q2 or Q3 and do the raise with the stock at an ATH).�
Aug 13, 2015
uselesslogin I just love that the minority ended up being correct. And the minority have been correct on Tesla's actual production vs. guidance the last couple years as well. Good to remember that the crowd is often not right.�
Aug 13, 2015
ev-enthusiast Yes�
Aug 13, 2015
JRP3 Hmm...�
Aug 13, 2015
Larken Originally Posted by Johan
Deepak speaking on Q2 call: No need for raise now, credit line largelgy unused, "we are comfortable with the cash levels". Elon: "There is not a need to raise capital, but there could be value as a risk reduction".
I guess it all comes down to what emphasis you place on the word "need". The fact that there is a small capital raise today doesn't invalidate Elon's or Deepak's statements in the above quote.�
Aug 13, 2015
maoing haha. I'm one of them voted yes. It's such a obvious thing.�
Aug 13, 2015
Bgarret And yet still so humble....�
Aug 13, 2015
Cosmacelf Maoing has been a reliable source of non public information in the past (Chinese sales, etc.). Ignore him at your peril...�
Aug 13, 2015
RobStark I wonder if the minority would have said $500M or less if forced to give a number?
�
Aug 14, 2015
RobStark The Bear thesis tells us that Tesla would need a $500M raise every Q for the foreseeable future.
Any Oracles of BEVdom want to predict another $500M raise in Q4 and Q1 2016?�
Aug 14, 2015
ivog I'll predict another raise in Q1 2016, not that I think it's neccesarily a bad thing.�
Aug 14, 2015
cgiGuy I don't often vote on polls, but when I do.. it's after I've found out the answer.
�
Aug 14, 2015
Johan Like�
Aug 14, 2015
NigelM Looks like the current raise has been increased.�
Aug 14, 2015
cgiGuy Empty link, Nigel.�
Aug 14, 2015
Familial Rhino Is there a way to find out what answer I voted for? I forget if it was the first or the second. (I think the second.)�
Aug 14, 2015
ggr Your answer is shown in italics, the others are shown in normal type.�
Aug 14, 2015
Familial Rhino Ha! Thanks. I actually voted "No". So I was wrong, but I couldn't remember what kind of right I was.
Kind of like Jim Cramer. Maybe I should launch a financial show.�
Aug 14, 2015
Lump I had forgotten how I had voted as well, turns out I picked selling debt, (thanks ggr
For 2016 I predict 2 rounds of capital raises.�
Aug 14, 2015
NigelM Sorry, fixed it now.
Fortune story: http://fortune.com/2015/08/14/tesla-boosts-stock-sale/
�
Aug 21, 2015
neroden OK, so apparently I can predict some things.
For information:
-- I predicted a capital raise because there are major unmet expansion needs which have to be done in the next couple of years before Model 3 is released (stores, service centers, superchargers) which it seems Tesla had not previously properly budgeted for. Plus unexpectedly high warranty costs.
-- I predicted stock because the stock price is actually pretty high -- it's certainly pricing in a successful model X launch -- and at this price the amount which Tesla would want to raise (which I figured at less than $1 billion) would be a small dilution. Debt causes a reduction in cash flow due to interest payments, while stock does *not*.�
Aug 21, 2015
RobStark 
�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét