Thứ Ba, 3 tháng 1, 2017

I'm starting to think the X still isn't ready... part 1

  • Sep 30, 2015
    Fiver
    So the "unveiling" was kind of a let down information wise. The 6 founder cars that were delivered really only had to be out the door before Tesla's self imposed deadline of Q3.

    So many questions, so little answers. I'm really starting to get the impression that this whole thing was thrown together at the last second just to meet the deadline. It seems like the X needs another few months in the oven before it's done. Otherwise why aren't the floodgates open now with information? People seem pretty let down about the less then stellar interior. While the new nose is a radical departure in design language, at the same time I see it and think "in 3.5 years that's all you could come up with?" (I'm not hating on the nose, it's just... bland)

    I know another official delay would really have hindered TSLA, but I really think they need another year to refine this vehicle. It worries me that if they had this much time on the X, and it still came out half baked, what does that say about the 3?

    I guess the real answer to my question will be how many ship before the end of the year. If it's only a few, then yea, it needed more time.
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  • Sep 30, 2015
    CarlK
    I think it's great and I and excited about it. You don't need to of course.
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  • Sep 30, 2015
    P90D
    I tend to agree it shows signs of being unfinished. It seems like they got stuck in mud with the second row seats. But here it is and I'm confident Tesla will finish off the rough edges as they expand into full scale production once a few Sig drivers start to report the rattles and squeaks and pushback on the slow, beeping doors, etc.
    I didn't see any dealbreakers, but like many, I need to see Autopilot at least in beta with no prospect of needing additional cameras or hardware retrofit sensors, etc.
    In terms of design, there's some clunkiness and gaps, but overall, it's as good or better than the Model S, though i think the cable conduit in the windshield should have been embedded in the glass, but I guess that's just expensive for now. Seems to me a single power-over-ethernet cable could carry all the power and data you could possibly ever need at the cameras and sensors snugged into that mirror location. It could have been better.
    As ever, amazing technological and engineering inventions probably go underappreciated, but at least to some of us, it's an impressive leap forward for Tesla.
    Overall, from 20 feet, the car is marvelous. The exterior finish quality is the same as a Model S. The nose is a bit "unfinished" in white, but otherwise, impressive, distinctive and all but unique. A leap forward from the Model S schnoz. I think I'll stick to basic black at this point. Maybe in the
    Inside, there's some gaps and missing pieces, a bit of seat frame covered in a piece of leather looks like something half way through development where a molding (this is a "kick" surface) probably iterated to catch up to a design change and wasn't ready, so wrap a bit of leather around it. That kind of thing. I'd say it's good to have the first 2000+ guinea p... I mean prestigious signature owners with all the cachet $20K can buy ... : ) ... help the factory roll out their field beta. Doors were a little less than sci-fi movie smooth, and slow to finish closing, the bongs and chimes had me reaching for the "off" settings (not found) and the autopilot, self-parking, remote drive features were conspicuously absent. I have to admit the optimist in me expected the first car to roll on stage behind Elon would be driverless.
    I trust all these loose ends will be neatly tied off in the Sig cars and the production cars will be neatly finished with all expected features in production completion.
    I guess Tesla just plain couldn't find the insurance company willing to underwrite the risk of the car taking the opportunity to drive off the front of the stage and plow through the audience in an unstoppable figure 8 and wipe out the first 2000 customer orders ... and the whole company for that matter, if ever a driverless Tesla is parking itself and suddenly decides to go on a rampage commute all by itself.
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  • Sep 30, 2015
    tpoltron
    I suspect you may be correct but also wonder if additionally Tesla is holding X info back to maintain S sales during the X ramp up. I would....
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  • Sep 30, 2015
    Matias
    IF it IS ready, why are they not delivering Signature cars at the moment? Why is there this undefined hiatus? As far as I know, there are no confirmed delivery times for Sigs. If it was ready cars would be rolling out to owners.
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  • Sep 30, 2015
    omarsultan
    Having sat in one last night, I thought the interior looked great, good fit and finish, nice materials. I thought it was cohesive, looked great and the seats felt great, at least for the short ride. I am not one of those looking for a folding 2nd row, so I would have happily taken one home yesterday.
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  • Sep 30, 2015
    Matias
  • Oct 1, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    What hiatus? As of yesterday all 1200 US signature holders have been asked to configure and order the car. This happened in 3 waves, the first week being 150ish people, the last was for about 500 I think. You can follow up and count them on the Model X thread. We will see if there are more sigs outside the US or US production owners being invited next week, but it would be completely rational if they skipped a week or two until the first big(ish) volumes of sigs start production to see if everything works out as planned on the production lines.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Matias
    ^ Why Bonnie has no confirmed delivery time? They delivered 5 cars on stage 29th (of which one went to Elon) as we all know. Why no deliveries 30th, why no cars today or tomorrow? There is undefined hiatus.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    omarsultan
    They were very clear on the earnings call that they expect a very shallow ramp as they learned to build the car and the supply chain ramps up. Not sure where there is evidence of a hiatus--this seems more like FUD on your part unless you can provide some evidence otherwise. As its the end of the qtr, I would guess they are prioritizing getting Model Ses out the door.

    Sitting in the Fremont delivery center while Supercharging the last couple of weeks, comments from the tour guides indicate that MXes are being built and they have been especially persnickety about having phones out.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Matias
    I just ask simple question; why are they not delivering the cars.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    SebastianR
    1. They said it will be a shallow ramp. It was clear that they will not deliver 10.000 cars as of today
    2. We were promised an exponential ramp-up. Elon said, that depending on the where the quarters intersect with the curve we will see quite "big jumps" week to week / month to month
    3. If they really don't deliver cars (not sure if that's the case) - who knows? It was a missing USB cable that held-up the Model S at some point. Then there was a truck from Mexico who got delayed at the border, then there were tyres that had to be flown in from Europe. Then there was the supplier who couldn't deliver the next gen seats - it is a bloody big car with a lot of parts. Anything from a port strike to a power-outage, to a supplier in trouble could cause minor delays.

    The fact is: we have seen some cars. We know that Tesla can ramp production (that was a doubt with the Model S, now we know they can do it). We know that Tesla time is slightly different from other times.

    I suggest we relax and wait for a week or two and see what happens. I don't think all is perfectly smooth with the Model X but I also doubt there is a bigger issue that holds things up.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    jaguar36
    They are delivering cars, I saw them deliver 6 the other day.

    They probably spent the last few weeks putting those 6 through a ton of testing and quality control. I'm sure they scrambled to get that all done for the event, because that's how the world works. Right now they are probably doing the same thing to the initial sig cars. They may be waiting for a last few parts, or fixing a couple of things that didn't turn out right. This shouldn't be a cause for concern, you're never going to start up a brand new product and just start making 1000 of them a day.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Hank42
    You know, I saw the same thing, and now I can't get over it. I mean, with all the wireless gizmos and gadgets in that car, I WIRED conduit running smack down the middle of the windshield is so "unprofessional". Carmakers have been embedding wires into autoglass since the 70s' (think AM Radio antenna) - That mirror pod just needs power -a few milliamps worth- which can be easily be provided by means of two small embedded conductors that are nearly invisible. All of the telemetry data from the mirror pod can be beamed back to receivers in the A pillars - heck it doesn't even need to be RF! There are a number of established short distance high speed protocols available, or invent their own.
    Hey Tesla, if you're listening, I'd be more than happy to design a more elegant solution for you. You can contract hire me!
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    AnOutsider
    I get the enthusiasm of some here, but I think it's worth looking back to the Model S rollout. After founders (which also happened right before the end of a quarter) there was something like a 1.5-2 month lull before signature deliveries began. So yes, they delivered a few cars to founders the other night, but that doesn't mean they're ready to deliver cars to outsiders.

    I'm a fairly low number (not as low as Bonnie) and no one has any clue when they'll actually begin rolling out. At this point, my gut says late November, early December sounds about right.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    gg_got_a_tesla
    I see what you did there. ;)

    Yeah, shades of mid-to-late 2012 all over again. Back then, Tesla was still finding its feet getting a proper production line going; they were in survival mode at that time.

    This time, in my very subjective opinion, they are trying to build a great but a much more complex piece of machinery in the X so, will have teething pains of a different kind.

    As a Tesla cheerleader (owner, stockholder, fanboy, etc.), would I have preferred that they went to market with a simple, 'traditional' CUV frame wrapped around a Model S's entrails underneath? Yes. It would have been far easier maybe to execute on that. But, hey, this is Tesla, pushing the envelope on design, function and subjectively, aesthetic.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    mknox
    I hope people don't take this the wrong way, but knowing what I now know about Tesla I would definitely wait before jumping in to a Model X. The Reason? Tesla iterates very quickly and not on a "model year" basis like most other manufacturers. I expect there will be a slew of feature improvements over the first year to year and a half of production.

    I pre-ordered my Model S over a year before production and only opted out of a Sig because when it was discovered the car wasn't NAFTA eligible, the extra import duties pushed the cost above my pain threshold. I asked Tesla about some (in my opinion) "missing" features and was led to believe they would be retrofitted later. I was told things like lighted vanity mirrors (that the Get Amp'd test drive car had) and parking sensors would come. It's not that I'm unhappy with my Model S, but rather I though upgrades and improvements would come to the car annually, not in a continuous stream. If I'd known that then, I might have waited until a couple of the then missing features had shown up.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    gg_got_a_tesla
    @mknox, I get where you are coming from but, if everyone were to wait (and not jumped in early as the likes of you and I did with the Model S), then, Tesla wouldn't have survived at all to do the refinements that they did over time.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Petra
    As a general rule, you do not wirelessly integrate safety critical systems for aesthetic reasons... especially when latency is a priority.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    mknox
    Yep, someone has to be first, and it's usually me. I still have my 1st gen iPad that I bought the day it came out lying around here somewhere :smile: I think Tesla has enough X reservations built on the success of the Model S that this isn't a problem and, of course, they still have S reservations coming in too. I was really thinking of the guy/gal who is "on the fence" about this and might be happier seeing some concerns addressed first.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    AnOutsider
    True too, and, for the most part, Tesla has done right by the early folks with retrofits (where's my visors!)
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Matias
    Well, not exactly. They showcased few handbuilt cars which they handed to people, who are big investors in Tesla. Those people have every incentive to show that everything goes smoothly. I claim that they have not yet made any actual customer deliveries.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    tftf
    Bingo. It's what I been predicting for months (over at SA) in comments: The Model X "launch" will most likely be a "photo op" PR operation for investors and the media.

    This is what they needed in terms of PR to make the latest deadline after so many prior delays: End of 2013, then early 2014, then late 2014, then "spring 2015" and now finally "end of Q3 2015".

    I don't think they can/will ramp up volume production before Q1 2016.

    And I don't think the lower-priced versions will ship to consumers before 2017 (maybe the 90 kWh battery-version will remain the basic battery variant forever, resulting in a base price of $90-100k with a few options).

    PS: It looks like the Greencarreports leaks were spot on: Tesla Delivery Goal Fell Due To Slower Model X Production Ramp: Sources
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    jaguar36
    Keep in mind that the X is significantly based on the S, so while there have been a ton of improvements on the S over the years, a large number of those will roll right into the X. Also keep in mind that Tesla is a significantly more mature company and should have learned a ton of the last 3 years. Therefore while it wouldn't suprise me if there aren't some changes going forward, I would expect them to be nearly as profound as the ones that happened on the S in the first year or two.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Zaxxon
    This is true. The founders cars were paid for, but they are certainly not 'true' customer cars. From where I sit, the Q3 deadline was missed. I might be inclined to call it a win if the Sigs were actually moving through the queue, but all evidence I've seen says we got founder deliveries and Sig configurations in Q3, but likely no actual Sig deliveries for at least a few more weeks. Further, we still don't even have the full specifications/pricing of the car. (The Model X page's 'specs' section is a feature list. This is a specs list.)

    I get why Tesla's handling this the way they are, and I don't even disagree that this is the right way to proceed if they aren't confident in being able to ramp more quickly. Get it right. But let's call a spade a spade.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Fiver
    When is the next earnings call? November?
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    FredTMC
    Yes, November. But Q3 deliveries get reported in the next day or so. I'm expecting a beat vs guidance.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    TEG
    I think the test rides were done in the Founders' cars that had ostensibly just been delivered.
    This goes along with the thought that they have a very limited number of "finished" vehicles available right now.
    Kudos to the "Founders", including Elon, for letting depositors go over their own personal vehicles this early instead of waiting until they have enough "VP" press/demo cars to use for such purposes.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Jgdixon
    I was at the plant for the tour on Wednesday. There were no X's on the line. We saw one body in a jig and a finished unit beside the Model S line being used for training. That's it.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Fiver
    See this is kind of my point. The "founders cars" were hand built, and then also used for test rides. I didn't see a founder drive their car off stage, and the word was that while people got rides, no one besides tesla staff actually drove the vehicles. Who else but "founders" would be willing to go along with this staged event? I'm willing to bet they don't actually even have their vehicles today.

    Basically Tesla hand built 6 production candidates and "delivered" them. When the first actual signature cars are released we'll get an actual idea of how far along this car is. Who knows when that will be.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    markb1
    But there's a big difference in the way they are handling the X vs. the S. For the S, we had tons of information even before the first delivery, and we were taking test drives the day after the first deliveries. Tesla has not only been cagey about the X before deliveries, but they continue to be cagey, IMO.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    AnOutsider
    Which, IMO, further lends credence to the idea that it's just not ready.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    dsm363
    I seriously doubt they were 'hand built'. The whole point of the Founders cars is to build them exactly as you will build the Signature cars and saw if they find anything you have missed.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Kalud
    At least Founder VIN#2 (Steve Jurvetson (@dfjsteve) | Twitter) is on a roadtrip with Bubba Murarka (@bubbam) | Twitter.

    tesla.png
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    aesculus
    I have come to the same conclusion that the X is not ready yet for me (it probably is for many others though and that is great that it gets out there for it to be improved when/if it is ready for me). I pretty much new that going in so I waited for a long while before making my reservation. I thought I had waited until I felt we had enough information on the car and I could see that progress was being made (via the features that showed up on the S over the last several months). However what I experienced at the event both supported my decision on the car and also gave me more reservation to wait.

    I usually buy my cars and keep them for a long time. I like innovation and was one of the first to by a Mazda with a Wankel rotary engine and the last car I bought was an 2001 Acura MDX. With the Acura I put a reservation down before they even showed the first car (early 2000) and got one of the earliest deliveries. At the time it was a game changer in the SUV world.

    I feel the same about the Model X but it does not yet pass the test for purchase. I will either defer or after doing the math, I may end up leasing it for 2/3 years while my wish list gets dealt with or passed by. I may also discover during that time new things that are important or items I thought were important I no longer care about. But since I want to keep the Model X for probably two decades (its a million mile car), I need it right before I purchase it for keeps.

    Here is my wish list:


    • Reclining/folding second row seats
    • Black plastic back on seats was ugly and will get damaged easily - looked cheap
    • Range is limited. Needs to be closer to 300 miles
    • Panoramic roof needs electrochromatic tinting - from clear to opaque
    • 12 VDC outlets in Frunk/Trunk for accessories like coolers
    • Grab handles
    • Rear view cameras to supplement and eventually replace side mirrors
    • Autopilot still needs time to develop - could require hw changes

    This list applies mostly to me and probably won't be of concern to many others, especially their initial target group, but are necessary for it to be my "keeper" car.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    markb1
    Yes, I think we agree on that. But I think the Model X is even less ready than the Model S was at this point.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    TEG
    At the depositor "ride" event (even though I think Elon had said "drive"), yes, only Telsa drivers... But, earlier in the day, I think they let some reporters drive them.
    These were definitely complete, functional vehicles. I would guess that the hurdles now are related to reliability, and ability to ramp up production.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Maaz
  • Oct 1, 2015
    strider
    Like AO said, this is EXACTLY what they did w/ Model S. Hand-built Founders cars were delivered to make a "customer-shipped" deadline and then a multi-month wait until Sig cars were delivered. Same old Tesla. They have a huge lead on the industry but they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. If/when they have any decent competition this will bite them in the ass.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And by "ramp up production" you mean, "actually built on the line by the robots."
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    timf
    I think it's telling that they haven't even given estimated delivery dates to the Signature buyers yet. For Model S, they were able to give them estimates even though it was 3+ months out. If Tesla knew they were going to be building and delivering Signature Model Xs in the next month they would have informed buyers by now. Other than the goal of delivering all U.S. Signatures this year, the timeline and ramp up is unclear. It could be they don't even start building anything else until December. Meanwhile, Model S sales must continue to grow to fill the void, so they limit Model X information and keep the price point high in order to push buyers towards Model S.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    Hank42
    I don't think latency comes into play here.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    DougH
    Maybe this is why Jerome moved over to engineering for a while?
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    JohnSnowNW
    With respect, it seems to be working for them...if the Model S is any indication. I also don't think other companies could do a better job. If you look at how other companies treat concepts, sure they seem to meet deadlines a little more often, but the finished product is NEVER anywhere close to the cool shiat they display a few years before.
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  • Oct 1, 2015
    SeminoleFSU
    For some reason reading this part of your post made me think of this... To be honest, I'm happy not to have autopilot in my car... :)
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    FredTMC
    he did? He's back? Source? TIA
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    FredTMC
    Guys, Here's what's going on (IMO)...remember there two lines in the factory actually: A Robotic weld line and conveyor-based vehicle assembly line.

    Based on what we know, here's what's going on with how MX founders cars are built:

    1). Stamping. Aluminum body parts are produced in normal production stamping process. IMO, all the stamping dyes for MX are complete and being used for producing car panels. These parts aren't "hand made"

    2). Robotic "Body line" for Model X. We've been told from last ER (August) that tesla built a NEW body line (called body line 2). Elon twitted a picture recently of this new body line with the robots welding together an MX (AKA Body In White)

    3). Paint. Model X cars are painted in the new high rate paint shop. (Discussed in Q2 ER)

    4). Vehicle assembly. This is the conveyor-based assembly line where factory workers start with the painted Car body and assemble the car at numerous stations. It's this final assembly step that tesla MAY not be using the conveyor to move the MX along the assembly line steps. Simply the few MXs that have been built are likely completed by workers without using the moving conveyor

    Therefore, I think it's likely that tesla is getting ready now to begin assembly of MX on the conveyor line in step four above.
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    eepic
    This is great colour on it and makes sense, thanks!
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    CmdrThor
    I was on a factory tour just a few weeks ago and the guide indicated that we might see a Model X on this final assembly line. The line was also stopped at the time and he indicated it might be due to a Model X on the line because it currently takes them a little longer to make a Model X. We didn't end up seeing one on the line, but it does seem that at least some have been assembled on that line.
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    Signaturex
    I was told I would get mine by end of year latest
    guessing we won't know what is happening until someone visiting the factory confirms they have seen the X in production
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    EldestOyster
    The story we've been told for the last year or so was that they wanted to avoid the slow ramp up like the Model S experienced, as they kind of felt their way through the production process. They have been running the cars down the line since the spring. They have very smart production guys, who've done this before. To me, this translates to...we could make a few cars in July, but wouldn't have real production until end of September. Instead, we will wait until end of September to show the cars, and light the fuse on the production line.

    I would like to believe this; it will be a surprise if it does happen. And I'm an Engineer, and well acquainted with the lovely sound made by deadlines as they go whooshing by. It always seems it will be easier than it turns out to be. Hmm, maybe I could get into management. ;)

    As for "complicated", it's the Engineer's job to make it "buildable". It can be done, and this is why Engineers get to work in the production area: they get to see it happening and get feedback from the workers.
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    strider
    You deleted my last sentence. Of course it's "working" for them as they have no competition. They can pretty much screw up as much as they want and people will still buy. But as I said in my post, if/when they have competition this will hurt them. After all, how many MX res holders would have bought a different vehicle that offered similar specs that wasn't delayed 2+ years? People think, "oh they're so far ahead of everyone and the SC network is such a barrier to entry for anyone else" blah blah blah. All the former great companies thought the same thing. I like my Teslas. I want them to survive. But to do so they have to actually learn from their mistakes.
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    JohnSnowNW
    I think that would be entirely dependent on what they actually offered, compared to what they promised. I understand what you're saying, but I also believe their delays are because they are actually trying to give people what they promised with the concept...instead of giving them something that faintly resembles it (Foldgate aside).
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    MrBoylan
    Someone apparently checked the VIN of one of the test ride vehicles, and it ended in 84, so it was not one of the Founders' cars (00001 to 00006). Also, apparently journalists did get some test drive time with the Model X earlier in the day. I saw that mentioned in at least one of the early Model X launch stories. It was a short drive, in a Tesla parking lot, but a drive nonetheless:

    Tesla's Model X is finally here, and I got to drive it | The Verge

    - - - Updated - - -

    I like your list. Personally, I'm too excited to wait, and will take the X as is, but I would welcome anything on that list. BTW, I'm guessing the wiring is there for the side mirror cameras - just waiting on legal approval.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Having gone for a factory tour on Wednesday morning, I'd agree with this. Pretty sure the guide said that the Model X parts were all being made in the stamper, and I believe were welded by the welding robots. There was a model X out on the factory floor and workers were being trained on its various details but I personally only saw Model S cars on that conveyer system.

    -CB
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    brianman
    Your expectations need to be recalibrated, IMO. You're at least 3 years off from reality.
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    goneskiian
    I was on the tour with MrBoylan and will back him up that the only X's we saw were a practice vehicle for the workers and a couple of skeletons with no panels or incomplete panels. Check that, there was also a couple X's in a cube up front where we started and ended tour. One of which had handles attached to every panel and a metal panel for the large front windshield. Couldn't really figure out what that was for. Should have asked! D'oh! Was too in awe of trying to see as much as I could.

    The second body line looked to be pretty quiet too. Body line 1 and the final assembly line was positively humming with a steady stream S's though.

    Of course, it's a pretty massive factory and there was quite alot going on that I was trying to take in and I could very likely have missed something.
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  • Oct 2, 2015
    omarsultan
    Can we at least have the multi-month delay before we start complaining about a "hiatus"?
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  • Oct 3, 2015
    stopcrazypp
    Jalopnik got to drive one too:
    http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/what-its-like-to-drive-the-tesla-model-x-1733675672

    As did Road and Track:
    http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/first-drives/news/a26877/tesla-model-x-how-it-drives/

    As did Car and Driver:
    http://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/model-x

    Just a quick google shows even mainstream outlets like USA today got to drive it. It was a very short and quick spin, but it was definitely a drive and not a ride.

    And given people were allowed to use their measuring tape and examine the car pretty thoroughly I don't think Tesla was hiding anything as the OP was suggesting.
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  • Oct 3, 2015
    Fiver
    I don't think they are hiding anything besides almost everything information-wise. I swear Elon's little twitter flood tonight gave us more info about future X plans then the reveal did.

    My point is the X isn't ready for mass production because it's not finished. They may have delivered vehicles, but they I bet by car 1,000 we will see a much different X rolling off the line.
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  • Oct 3, 2015
    Raven
    Deleted.
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  • Oct 3, 2015
    neroden
    These aren't even close to their biggest mistakes, either. The service end of things is a *huge* weak point. I understand why Musk wanted to run service in-house, but it's not scaling up. He either needs to build ~60 Service Centers in the US alone before 2018, or he needs to put out a manual for independent repair shops to use.
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  • Oct 3, 2015
    Lump
  • Oct 3, 2015
    neroden
    That's quite a quote:
    "We probably should have just [modified the Model S]," he added. "There are so many more features and difficult to build parts on [the Model X] than it is necessary for us to sell the cars."

    Maybe he gets it now? Tesla needs to stop spending money on engineering fancy new stuff -- I know it's fun for the engineers, but they need to do useful work for their money. Start spending money on Service Centers instead, and on training service center staff. And on making all the existing features work right (nav comes to mind). And on providing retrofits for people with the defective features (like the bad interior temperature sensor design where it didn't sense the temperature). And, of course, on production line simplification and cost reduction. Don't "reskin" the UI for fun -- that's not worth a single hour of paid engineering time. Spend your paid time on the boring stuff which gives *quality*.
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    I have little doubt that the Model X project spiraled out of control with regards to niche features and other stuff. It seems like the car became the engineering playground for everyone, resulting in massive delays and other absurdities. It really did concern me when Elon stated elsewhere that Model X was one of the most difficult cars in the world to build, because an advantage of EVs is that they are supposed to be easier to build than other cars. Absolutely absurd that the company would deliberately make more unnecessary problems for itself.

    What's done is done, though. With any luck real "mass production" will happen soon.

    Hopefully this is not a mistake that Tesla will make again, especially with Model 3. I do think they "get it"... I believe the last investor's conference call Elon stated that the Model 3 sedan would not be an "adventurous" car like Model X. If Model X is half the PITA that I think it is, nobody at the company will want to repeat this experience again anytime soon.
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    Nigel Tufnel
    I like the fact that Elon is admitting that maybe he doesn't always get it right. Most (all?) car companies only admit errors when they get caught red-handed...such as the VW situation.

    I wonder if he'll ever add: "...and by the way, we lied through our teeth about the 691 hp claim, here's how we're going to compensate the affected parties..." :)
    �
  • Oct 4, 2015
    mikevbf
    I totally agree, especially as regards investing more service center infrastructure. Other than the giga factory, presently I think the service centers are TM's biggest challenge and weak link. They have huge consumer satisfaction ratings now and great brand image, all of which is in danger if they do not grow the service centers with the increased number of Teslas on the road. I also wonder with all the over engineering in the Model X, how reliable of a car it will be ...
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    jeffhre
    Perfect.

    I'm glad someone else is saying that!
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    yobigd20
    100% agree with you. it's rushed. they needed to get at least 1 car out the door before end of quarter to meet their goal or face dire circumstances (major stock loss). its obvious many things are left unfinished. they'll be prototype parts used. this is the "sig tax" all over again.
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    Fiver
    I think that the (unplanned) complexity of the X might actually help the 3. We can only hope that lessons were learned from the whole experience. I mean as it was mentioned above, originally the X was supposed to be a jacked up version of the S, sharing a lot of common parts. What we got in the end clearly departed from this early goal. The "final" product wound up being almost too difficult to manufacture, and kind of still is too difficult, as they aren't producing them yet.

    I can only hope that this process sticks in the engineers minds when designing the 3.

    "Hey we could add this for little cost and make it really cool!" This comment will hopefully met with "Is it necessary?" I'm all for neat cars, but it's not just making them, it's servicing them as well. It doesn't matter how easily they can make the 3, if the service centers can't repair them (and they will need to) in a reasonable amount of time customers are going to be pissed. You need a greatly expanded service center network, and as rock solid of a car as you can possibly make. These two things need to go hand in hand.
    I hope this thinking is going into the 3 design. A solid, not overly flashy car that fits what we should expect from a $35,000 vehicle.
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    I exoect that X is ready, but oroduction isn't.

    But, sigs not having a delivery date doesn't mean much: there's uncertainty in the ramp, so it's better not to give anyone a date.
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    Lonnie123
    Yes, yes, yes... I really hope they learned their lesson and are essentially just "going to modify Model S" in a way. I dont expect the same body style (although I would love it if that were the case) but if all they did was redesign it a little bit and shrink everything 20%... well, I'm sold. I dont need any new, flashy, cool design elements or components.
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  • Oct 4, 2015
    MrBoylan
    I agree. The Model 3 will be a mini S and the Model Y will be a mini X (with only two rows of seating, but with Falcon Wing Doors). I don't mean they will look exactly like shrunken versions of their big brothers, but logically I think we can think of them that way. R&D of how to build an electric car and an electric SUV has now been (mostly) sunk. They know how to do the hardest stuff already: intelligently controlled battery packs with low degradation, touchscreen-driven UI, dual motor drive, Falcon Wing Doors, NAV with super-charger routing, auto-pilot (getting there), etc. Now they'll just have to make them a bit smaller and less full-featured in order to hit a lower price point.

    A big part of the cost of the S and X is the R&D it took to get there. Making a smaller motor, smaller car, smaller battery pack (with more efficient batteries) should be so much easier (and cheaper) than than it was to actually invent all of these things in the first place. The real engineering challenge for the Models 3 and Y will be accomplishing the same effect with less expensive materials or even more efficient production processes. The gigafactory will certainly help with that, and Musk has already shown what they can do at SpaceX when it comes to lowering costs.

    -CB
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  • Oct 5, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
    From everything I've read, the "sig tax" is lower this time though, at least in terms of quality.

    Generally, the first-look articles from the automotive press, and comments from people here who attended the Model X event, were positive on the fit and finish and overall quality of the vehicles. I can't remember exactly who wrote it, but there was a post on TMC stating that the difference between the Model S Sigs and Model X Sigs was night and day.
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  • Oct 5, 2015
    markb1
    But remember, these aren't sigs. These are founders series. When Tesla scales up to produce sigs, we'll see.
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  • Oct 5, 2015
    stevezzzz
    Remember the video that came out just before C&D named Model S "Car of the Year"? One of the panelists made the point that it's the body and interior that's hardest to put into production, not the chassis and drivetrain. He was very impressed that Tesla pulled it off. I think it's clear that most of Tesla's headaches getting the X to the finish line have had to do with the coachwork, including the big windscreen and especially the Falcon Wing doors.
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  • Oct 5, 2015
    stevezzzz
  • Oct 5, 2015
    timf
    He was one who "took delivery" on the reveal night, VIN #3. For whatever reason he didn't drive it home immediately.
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  • Oct 5, 2015
    JohnSnowNW
    Most likely because he didn't have time to make the trip back to Ft. Lauderdale, FL.
    �
  • Oct 5, 2015
    MrBoylan
    Also, even if he had the time for a cross country drive, he probably didn't want to pay California use tax and Florida sales tax on the same car. I pretty much gave up hope of CA pick-up and drive back to NY when I heard about that.
    �
  • Oct 5, 2015
    timf
    That makes sense, I didn't realize he lives in Florida. The California plates threw me off and the scenery looks similar.
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  • Oct 5, 2015
    Canuck
    I'm not sure what "ready" for production means. Could it use improvements? Of course. But doesn't that apply to every vehicle and probably moreso for every non-Tesla vehicle?

    To answer the question I would pose this question: If I had one of the founder X vehicles would I think it's not "ready" for others, if it rolled off the line just like mine? I highly doubt it.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    Fiver
    Well, first off, if it was "ready" we'd be seeing cars coming off the line. The final car would be (to borrow a chip fab phrase) "tapped out". I know that Tesla is constantly refining it's production process, constantly changing how the cars are made, but at some point the car was "done" and ready to be mass produced. I don't see any indication this is remotely close to happening with the X. The car doesn't seem to be "tapped out".
    �
  • Oct 6, 2015
    Matias
    It might be, that the car is ready, but suppliers are not.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    kf93
    FL doesn't double charge you tax if you can show you paid to another state. I'm military and have registered many cars with FL plates that were purchases overseas and in California.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    goneskiian
    This.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    MrBoylan
    Good to know. But if the use tax is higher in California than the sales tax is in Florida (which I expect it is) then I'm sure Florida doesn't give you a refund, do they?

    I'm going to have to get definitive answers to these questions re: California pickup/NY registration as I was seriously considering pick-up at the factory and driving my family cross country in the X. And no, I'm not expecting to get definitive answers here in the forum. :) Just curious how it has worked for you in Florida with California vehicle purchases.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    kf93
    It really boils down to your DMV in the state where you plan to title/register the car. Sales tax and cars is a complicated issue. I've had at least three different scenarios happen in the last 5 years because I've also purchased overseas through the military sales programs and you don't pay tax at purchase then, you pay it later when you register in the US.

    If you buy a car in CA in most all cases the dealer will charge you tax as part of the sales price and process temp CA DMV paperwork so you can legally drive off the lot. Even if you are going to leave the state immediately I think that's not something you can skip- unless you can find a way to pre-register the car in the other state. Then you might be able to show up with valid out of state plates and put them on and drive off. However you still have purchased the car in CA, I think the dealership still has to charge you sales tax. FL gives you full credit for any tax paid to another state, as long as NY does the same thing you should be fine only paying once. There are also some car value based DMV fees in CA that kick in to make it even more painful but out of state resident military are exempt from those. The NY DMV should have some online info about registering cars bought from out of state, that should answer most of your questions regarding taxes and the required paperwork.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    andrewket
    There are shipping companies that make a business picking up cars in CA and delivering them in NV just to get around the CA tax issue. You could go to the factory, get a tour, and then have Tesla ship the car to Las Vegas.
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  • Oct 6, 2015
    stevezzzz
    That's not the point I was addressing. Someone earlier hypothesized that the Founders series cars we saw 'delivered' on stage last week weren't really ready for customer delivery. I was just pointing out that at least #2 and #3 are now in customers' hands.
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    Blastphemy
    It doesn't work that way. The sales tax (and certain other fees) paid on a car is based on where it's registered, not where the owner picks it up.

    If the "dealership" at which you buy the car charges the wrong sales tax, then there's a whole annoying process you must go through to get reimbursed in the non-resident state and then pay your taxes in the resident state.
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    yobigd20
    You'd pay sales tax twice. In CA you have to pay CA sales tax at pickup and in NY they will make you pay sales tax again at registration. Then you'd have to go back to CA and request reimbursement IF they even allow that. I don't recommend CA pickup unless you live in CA.
    �
  • Oct 7, 2015
    Stoneymonster
    From personal experience, even when it is legally required, getting taxes back from CA is a loooooooooong process, filled with Kafka-esque bureaucratic interactions.
    �
  • Oct 7, 2015
    stopcrazypp
    Actually there was an old thread on this already. Tesla can give a temporary 90 day registration to avoid having to pay for CA tax. However you would be required to take the shortest possible route home.
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/8017-Factory-Delivery-CA-State-sales-tax

    Without such an exception, in general it would be true that sales tax is due for items you pick up in CA even if you are using it out of state.
    �
  • Oct 7, 2015
    ckessel
    That is, unfortunately, not true unless the California BOE has changed their rules. I did a bunch of research on this back when I was considering picking up my car from the factory. I even have a post on it later in that same thread:

    Factory Delivery / CA State sales tax - Page 2

    tl;dr - there is no escape from CA sales tax.
    �
  • Oct 7, 2015
    stopcrazypp
    You are correct actually, later in the thread there is an update:
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/8017-Factory-Delivery-CA-State-sales-tax?p=130416&viewfull=1#post130416

    I guess it really is impossible to avoid sales tax for CA delivery (no exceptions).
    �
  • Oct 7, 2015
    MrBoylan
    Actually, NY DMV web site says they credit any tax paid in California toward NY state tax so you don't pay the tax twice. Unfortunately CA tax is super high (6.25% state tax plus city and county taxes? - possibly close to 10% of total car cost, IIRC). And NY has a 4% state tax, but then individual county taxes on top of that. In NYC, I think I have to pay an additional 4.5% sales tax. And I'm not sure if that can be credited from another county in another state. I suspect it can't. I have an e-mail into the NY DMV asking for details. Hopefully I'll get an intelligent and comprehensive response. :)

    I don't mind paying 9% or even 10% tax. But I don't want to pay 19% tax.
    �
  • Oct 8, 2015
    Matias
    Bonnie's Sig nro 2 still hasn't gone into production. I think they don't have all the parts to build X.
    �
  • Oct 8, 2015
    macpacheco
    Let's be honest. Tesla cars are what other companies call concept cars. In many ways a Tesla is a decade ahead of its time.
    But I understand, you're a typical successful developed world upper middle class guy. Instant satisfaction is demanded. You're paying for it.
    Meanwhile, you will get your concept car that you can drive every day soon enough.
    Sorry to be so hard. I used to live that first world middle class life. Back in Brazil for 15 years, we face so many problems which have no reason to be if we had USA like lets just do it mentality. Thanks for listening.
    Tesla isn't making a mistake. They're playing the hand they have. Its not their interest to delay deliveries another quarter. Cars will start trickling down in some weeks. Perhaps you might want to demand Tesla made the MX simpler to built with less exotic features. That would have tremendously helped with the rampup, but I think most Model X signature buyers would disagree. They want a concept car they can drive.
    �
  • Oct 8, 2015
    anticitizen13.7
  • Oct 8, 2015
    Rodolfo Paiz
    This is a young company making its second mass-produced product, which they acknowledge became a very complex process and has already been dramatically delayed. Yes, it's absurd... but take it in stride. You KNEW the reality when you reserved the car, right? If you don't feel comfortable with Tesla having to make some adjustments and improvisations along the way, you'd be well advised to simply wait until they've produced 10,000 to 20,000 Model X cars, then buy one. Otherwise this process of waiting for your car is not going to be any fun... and getting a new car, especially something like the Model X, should most definitely be a fun process.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    Matias
    source Model X towing 5,000 up mountain passes at the speed limit? - Page 2

    If this is true, car is not ready
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    gg_got_a_tesla
    In hindsight, Tesla should have simply focused on the Model 3 (it would have been Model 2 then?) after the success of the Model S. That'd have still been compatible with their "secret master plan".

    Elon was once asked the same question - is the Model X really necessary?! He said something to the effect "no, it isn't but, I feel that it's a vehicle that should exist".

    All the same, once Tesla hits its straps with the X's production, we'd all forget this dodgy phase.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    techmaven
    Well, the issue is still, what is the depth of demand on the Model S? Can Tesla scale to 100,000 or 150,000 unit capacity by selling the Model S alone? Could they have raised enough money to skip the Model X altogether? I'm not sure. They had to get commitment from Panasonic to expand cell supply and they might not have achieved that with only Model S.

    As for the Model X, the falcon wing doors was enough complexity I think. The panoramic windscreen just wasn't necessary in the first iteration. Ship first. Let that come later.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    timf
    The feasibility of Model 3 has always been driven by battery supply and cost. Regardless of whether Tesla spent time engineering Model X or not, Model 3 would still be on roughly the same timeline as it is now. On the other hand, we may not have certain Model S features such as dual motor if it had not been for the Model X development process.

    I do feel the Model X design and assembly line are ready to the point where if they had suppliers delivering parts in volume they would be able to mass produce Model X. Certain features may have late availability and require a "due bill" or receive retrofits over the first year of service as was the case with Model S. Should that happen after all the delays we've already had with Model X? No, not really, but Tesla's operating strategy has always been continual product improvement and releasing features as they are ready. They had to draw a line in the sand for Model X somewhere and this is where we stand.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    EchoDelta
    This is all speculation on my behalf- but what if every step also has some rehearsal of the steps needed ahead as well? It may slow this step but accelerates the overall journey. I do believe- speculation- that the MX partly includes things that will be trickle down model 3 relevant features and differentiators; (which it will need for broad market wow appeal, besides being an EV especially without a range breakthrough IMO)
    and while they may have added time to the MX process, having done that this iteration de-risks model 3 a lot. Which in my mind is a good mission play. I think Tesla/Elon play this strategy at many scales simultaneously.
    Not being in the decision process of course means this is all fantasy and we all project our values into what Tesla "should" be doing.
    </digression>

    I think the stock will stay hammered until model 3 reveals/announcements happen in a few Teslamonths.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    nienco2
    Certain SEC filings indicated a number of stock option grants tied to Model X shipping by 9/30. Wonder if 6 hand made cars qualifies those grants? I hope that wasn't the incentive for the 9/29 event and real production is still a month or two away.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    macpacheco
    I really doubt there's a secret *detailed* master plan. That's because until final design decisions are made there are always many unknowns. A whole tree of unknowns. The conspiracy theory that corporate masters know everything is far from facts. It flies in the face of delegating design authority (always review later, but let your engineers think, and explain the pro's and con's of choices, make recommendations).
    You can only have a secret master plan back in the old VCR days, when the product that was going to be released 5 years from now was already built, and it wasn't even the next model to be released. Planned obsolescence. That doesn't quite apply to Tesla. If that were true, they would already have a Model 3 alpha car made already.
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    bonaire
    I think you answered your own question on the reason. If you read the value of the filings and who gets the benefits...
    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    donv
    Really? All I could find was the option grants which vest on the completion of the first Model X production vehicle-- but those didn't have a 9/30 date tied to them. They were expected to be completed in 2015, however.

    �
  • Oct 9, 2015
    andrewket
    Not true in California.
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    markb1
    That is true if you buy the car in California and register it in California.
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    MrBoylan
    Agree except it would be hard to do a "due bill" on the windshield which appears to be one of the parts holding things up. Driving off the lot without one of those would be tricky.

    But as for the Model III, it requires the gigafactory to reach its price point. The gigafactory is being built in parallel with car development. So the Model X, in that sense, really isn't holding up the Model III development. I agree with Elon though that the Model X should exist. High-end sedan, high-end SUV/CUV. Build the high-end cost-no-object brand in both of these categories, then once the world is lusting after them, introduce one (of each) that most people can afford.

    From my factory tour the day after the Model X launch event, it did seem to me like they had the capacity to ramp up the X quickly if they had the parts. Pretty amazing factory actually. Those are some big (and fancy!) robots!

    -CB
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    AudubonB
    Macpacheco, your post makes it seem as though you're not aware of the "Secret" Master Plan. I'll let you - and any others who might not know - search for it yourself, but it indeed exists. Not very secret, though.
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    bonnie
  • Oct 10, 2015
    AudubonB
    No one who's nicer than another ever would make that claim, as it's self-referentially contradictory.:tongue:
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    Keri Ford
    Well it does seem that Tesla has an issue with punctuality. But i think Model X is an essential step for Tesla. As others have said they need the Gigafactory for Model III so they couldn't deliver it any time soon. But on top of that Tesla is still a new company that is both learning and growing very quickly. The Model X will broaden their experience, it teaches them more about developing new cars about manufacturing and doing two different lines simultaneously. The Model III is a game changer and I think they need the Model X to prepare for the kinds of challenges the Model III will bring. The other thing is they will need to get their supercharger network in a pretty mature state for Model III.

    I don't think there is much cause for concern, Tesla has a habit of delivering, they have delivered their first Model X's as promised, it will take them a little while to ramp up production, I don't see anything to worry about.
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    FredTMC
    Lets say that Windshields and Rear Seats are the slowest items from suppliers.

    I would think tesla could assemble Model X cars completely and then put the windshield and rear seat in later and then deliver the car. Both are easily replaceable on most cars. I further assume both items are arriving from suppliers "soon".

    Ideally, tesla will get started with MX production next week. We'd all love to hear from sig owners with "your car is in production" status updates.
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  • Oct 10, 2015
    wdolson
    I noticed the production numbers for Model Ss dropped in July and August of this year and there was speculation Model S sales were soft. Sales of the Model S might have been soft, but the opening of the final assembly plant in the Netherlands explained the reduction in output to me. The final assembly plant is said to be putting together components made in California. Tesla was making parts for the start up of the European assembly plant.

    I think they are doing the same thing right now with Model X parts. The article someone posted where Elon said the Model X is the most complex car ever built. They may be having trouble getting some parts and that's holding up production. However, they could be making body panels and other parts for shipment to Europe. If the missing parts are something put on late in assembly, they could partially build cars and let them sit until the parts arrive.

    Another thing Tesla has to do is build Model Xs for the Tesla stores. They may be doing that too.

    There are many reasons there are delays to the deliveries of the Sig cars.
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  • Oct 10, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    Yes and yes. Nice find on the SEC filings. So it wasn't just a PR self imposed deadline, Elon was going to miss out on stock options!
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    woof
    And yet, (sorry Audi) Bonnie is nicer than you! :cool:
    �
  • Oct 10, 2015
    bonnie
    That's not a rule. I like paradoxes. Think of it as a paradox.

    Here's one of my favorites! (warning, rapid thread derailment underway)

    �
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