Sep 4, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I was looking for retail high discharge (>= 25C) batteries. Any link or advice (not an engineer here, I will try to ask some friends to help with the tough technical part) is appreciated- here is what I found
Green Series Life 10,000 6-cell 19.8v Battery Pack, GS LiFe 10000mah Packs, Life-10000-198-Pack
and for the motor
Electric Motorsport EV Parts
There were LiPo up to 120C continuous but much more fragile (charging) and much shorter life (and a bit more expensive). I expect the price to come down somewhat by the time I offer myself this treat (1-2 years) of trying to build a small EV than can do 0-60 mph in less than 3s and then wear out uncountable sets of tires
PS: I feel we are getting OT here ...�
Sep 4, 2013
JRP3 Do we even have a solid number for the real costs of the PbC? And I don't mean what they might cost in the future, someday, maybe.
Cycle life for most LiFePO4 is greater than 2000 cycles, depending on how they are used it can be 3000+. CALB CA series cells can do 10C for short bursts, which means a 40ah cell can put out 400 amps, 60ah cell 600 amps, etc. I'd say the 40ah cell would be more than enough for a go kart.�
Sep 4, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache No, we do not have the real cost for PbC. Only that 56 batteries + electronics were sold in 10 packages to ePower for $20k each. Depending on your assumptions on the price of control electronics, this works to $250 - $325 apiece. On top of that, we do not have the size / capacity for those batteries. Btw, ePower tried PbC in 2010 or so and decided it is too expensive for their plans. They tried several other battery types (Li-Ion included, I think) and came back to Axion hat in hand, ready to pay the right price. PbC will have a very hard time to change people's minds. Axion is working on that for several years already. But once it starts, it can snowball in a tsunami of growth. Just think where a $17M company could go if at least one or two of their $1B+ / year revenue niche markets pans out.
For the go kart, I was searching for the lightest batteries that will do the work and which have reasonable cycle life. Ideally, 50kW pulse should be available at least for 5-10 seconds if you want to smoke those tires�
Sep 4, 2013
JRP3 If you're serious about the kart you should join DIY Electric Car Forums Site Home and post your plans there to get some good feedback. I think 22 of the CALB 40's would be more than enough, remember tire shredding means torque, and 400 amps in a kart should be more than enough to do the job. That should be around a 60-70lb pack, or go with the 60ah cells for 600 amps. The other way to go is with 90C lipoly cells, but be prepared for some fireworks if things go wrong :scared:�
Sep 4, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Thanks for the link. When the time comes, I'll do that
As for the batteries, LiPo was the first thought, but they come with too many problems. Those LFP that I found (see link above) seem already good enough with continuous 40C, I think they won't mind 50-60C for 10s.�
Sep 4, 2013
Causalien When Nicu starts saying good things about AXPW, I listen. But why is AXPW even a possibility for future applications? I seems like Lithium battery has enough power density. Do we need PbC's power density? Or do we need PbC's cost efficiency?�
Sep 4, 2013
smorgasbord I keep thinking where that company will go when none of their niche markets pan out. In a few months, JP's gone from touting BMW as the savior to Axion's CEO admitting that BMW's not in the foreseeable future.
Back to JP's nonsense, I consider anyone who own's AXPW stock to be boosting JP's net worth, and so I won't do it even if I did believe in the company, which I don't. I know some here won't click on his SA articles since they don't want to give someone else's penny to JP - I suggest selling/avoiding the stock so he doesn't get your money boosting his stock position.�
Sep 4, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache
This is the perfect example of mixing emotions with investing logic. Something every investor should avoid.
As for Axion, it is far from a sure bet. But the first 10x will be on the the first real contract signed. Next multiples will need more work, revenue and profits. But I would not exclude a 50x to 100x in 3 to 5 years (if it doesn't go belly up). While he was over-promising before, the CEO said there will be significant revenue this quarter which ends in three weeks. Usually this is accompanied by a press release. So in any case, we are in for some fireworks by the end of the month, I just don't know the color: red or green?
EDIT: just for the record and proper disclosure, I now own 600k AXPW and I may go to 1M if it drops to 10c (and AAPL does not tank in the meantime).�
Sep 4, 2013
Zythryn Possibly,although it could also be a case of not wanting to invest in a company when their mouthpiece (J.P.) is so very misleading, dishonest, or at the very least wrong.
I will admit, some of my investment rules could be called emotional.
I refuse to invest money in companies such as Exxon, or Altria that make money selling/dealing cigarettes or oil.
Yes, I could make more money by doing so, but I stand by what I feel is right and important.�
Sep 4, 2013
Dan5 Nicu,
Also consider there is another company called firefly energy that is also making lead carbon batteries.
Also remember Axion entered PIPE financing- very destructive to existing shareholders.
When i hear pipe, its time to divest�
Sep 4, 2013
Blsteen I can't believe he printed that.
I browse JP's articles lightly, then fully enjoy seeing how hard he gets ripped by Commenters.�
Sep 4, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Yep, that's why the price more or less halved this summer so I could get so many cheap shares (it seems the "strategic partner" wanted to "help" them in exchange of 60% of the company or so, therefore plan B). There is a Chinese proverb that in every crisis there is opportunity.
The distinction here from classic PIPE disasters is that Axion has no debt. And if the price goes below 10c, the dilution does not continue with the PIPEers, they receive back cash with 25% penalty, I think. That is independent for each $500k slice that they are supposed to reimburse in stock each month starting September.�
Sep 4, 2013
qwk Yes, this is called voting with your wallet. Most here did so by purchasing the Model S.
As far as AXPW is concerned, that company is toast. Only a miracle would save it now.�
Sep 4, 2013
smorgasbord I disagree. Just as people here might invest in Solar City because of Musk, I'll avoid AXPW because of JP
This stock would have been toast long ago if not for Petersen's unethical pumping of the company and its stock. Face it, everyone reading this thread who has bought AXPW did so after being introduced to the company via Petersen or commentary on his articles. Some smart college student should write a thesis on how a blogger who has a way with words can boost a micro-cap stock and keep it afloat for so long - even when he has been consistently wrong on so many issues.
The truth is that this company would not have survived without its vocal huckster and that makes it a bad company to invest it. Nothing emotional about it.�
Sep 4, 2013
Krugerrand Money is emotional for most of the population because of its importance putting a roof over people's heads and food on their table so that they might live with a certain level of comfort and security. For some money goes beyond the basics and is a source of ego, power and worth...that'd also be emotion.�
Sep 4, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache smorgasbord, when you say you would not invest even if you knew it is a good bet, this is emotion; I can understand emotions like avoiding oil, guns or tobacco companies (I do too), but they are emotions nonetheless; other type of emotion I see around here, this time a very dangerous one, is to say that "I believe in Tesla's goals and future, so even if the stock tanks, I know I helped the right cause" - no, if you lose, you just transferred your hard earned cash to some other guy or machine out there, Tesla did not profit much, except when they raise cash
as for JP, he has introduced Axion to a large audience and some have decided to buy; you think he is lying, I think he does not - I actually think he does a service to both the company (and therefore himself) and investors who otherwise would not know about Axion; I think he does not get all aspects of Tesla right, but some points he raises are real (I do not want to develop that, everyone should decide for himself); in any case, Axion is not for the faint of heart, but when you can pay $1 to flip a coin and gain $10 if you are right, I take the deal any time of the day or night�
Sep 5, 2013
2Pearls Nicu, i have been reading these posts and I tend to agree, although there are certainly many stocks like this where there is the "opportunity" to make a lot of money...some of these have better odds than others...heck, there are tons of biotech stocks that are on the cusp of getting approvals from FDA, but, they are very long shots. With Axion, I think that this could be one. The question becomes if you are an investor or speculator?�
Sep 5, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache With Axion, you can call me investor. I may sell after the first 10x or so some shares to cover initial investment and tax, but the bigger part of my investment will not be unloaded below $10 - that will be several years from now and I started accumulating 25 months ago. With Tesla and Apple, I am surely a speculator, because my main focus is on options (I also have some shares in AAPL and at the moment no position at all in TSLA).
The thing with Axion as a good bet, I think there are several things to justify it. They already have the technology and production lines, it's not like there is a chance they succeed (compare that to biotech, of which I know nothing btw). Then, their tech is not "cool", which means the stock is not overvalued, on the contrary. Moreover, we have as close to inside information as possible while still being legal, a guy who knows the company and large chunks of the industry inside out, follows recent developments (from outside), explains them for free and can even answer your questions if you ask politely. Many have chosen to demonize him (see the title of this thread), but I have found value. As always, you have to use your own filter for what he thinks, he is just one guy with his biases and nobody can reliably predict stock prices.�
Sep 5, 2013
vgrinshpun An interesting coincidence - I made my initial investment in TSLA in December of last year, started trading in March. As of now I increased my initial investment 10x without putting any additional money in. It seems to match your criteria, except that with TSLA I always thought that my chances were somewhat higher than with flipping a coin. My friendly advice is to get back into TSLA.�
Sep 5, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Thanks for the advice, but I've got my sweet profits from TSLA at the best possible time (being crushed by AAPL). If it goes above $180 in the short term, I will get back in, but this time with puts
If you are curious, I have predicted a 10x in TSLA and separately the short squeeze about two years ago (but unfortunately for the short squeeze, being right too early it's not (much) better than being wrong - instead of $200k I could have made about $1M if it started 1st March instead of 1st April and more than $4M if it started 1st January)
Potential 10x Stock Idea: Why I Believe Tesla Is the Next Apple
Tesla: The Looming Short Squeeze�
Sep 5, 2013
Dan5 I tend to disagree, I don't think Axion will be able to stave off the wolves for years. They do have the trucking, but the microhybrids is a dead horse with the the recent price hybrid drop and price competition between toyota and ford. It's a matter of 19 K for a Prius or 17.5 K for a microhybird corolla; I'd pay the extra 1.5 K for the Prius, also the motovation for the microhybrid development just is not there, at least in the US- shows no significant different in the new 5 cycle EPA test.
The BMW "testing", which they have been doing since 2007 will probably not come to bear fruits. Axion lost the military grant years ago, their partner Exide filed for bankruptcy. Energy storage is going to be highly competative with used EV batteries. The only good aspect is the trucking, BUT again, Firefly Energy Internationl seems to have years of a headstart on them with mass transit testing.
In order for Axion to be successful, they have to beat Firefly to market, and when Firefly gets into the market keep their prices lower (price war ensues), then used lithium EV batteries come to market and completely wipe out their market due to low cost of "used" EV batteries being used for the same applications. It's hard to compete when your competitors are more or less getting their batteries for "free". Axion has about 10 years of the trucking market left, 2 of which they can dominate, after that, it's game over and that is starting today, so they really need to start moving it along.
If I could short AXPW I would, but the finances of shorting a penny stock make it not worth it (they want me to have $2.5 per share in reserve, which makes it a lousy ROI)�
Sep 5, 2013
JRP3 Yes, that "service" has provided us investors with a nice loss to date :wink: While I think Petersen is an arrogant blowhard who tries to twist reality for his own gain, and while I have gained more joy than distress while watching my small position in AXPW shrink because I know it hits him much harder, I would not feel badly if the stock turned around and he made a couple of bucks, nor do I care if he gets a few pennies from my clicks on his articles. Initially I feared his articles might do some damage to Tesla and EV's because no one was countering his outright lies about the technology. Now he gets swarmed with commenters taking him apart piece by piece and he has lost all credibility by being so completely wrong so many times that at this point I think he has the opposite effect. A Petersen article about Tesla usually corresponds with a nice uptick in the stock price, so post away Mr. P!�
Sep 5, 2013
vgrinshpun Ok, at least I tried. We'll check our notes in several months. Needless to say that I am holding my position in Tesla long term and goal of my trading on margin is share accumulation. The only time I use puts is when feel that I need protection from the margin call. As a side note I have an absolute blast of a time with my Model S, have 4,000 miles on the thing in 6 weeks - an exceptional piece! The best part, of course, is that it is going to be paid by those who shorted TSLA.
Regarding John Petersen, he is just dead wrong on TSLA.�
Sep 5, 2013
dsm363 What has JP gotten right over the last three years especially in terms of his investment advice of Axion vs Tesla?�
Sep 5, 2013
smorgasbord �
Sep 5, 2013
Robert.Boston You could say that Peterson has been a perfect predictor: whatever he says, do the opposite!�
Sep 5, 2013
Dan5 Yes, remember how he said to go long on Exide and short Tesla....
Classic example of infinite losses for shorting when it comes to stocks.�
Sep 5, 2013
rolosrevenge Once heard of a professor that would give 100 question true/false tests and give you 200% if you got every question wrong. Peterson should try and sign up for that.�
Sep 5, 2013
30seconds yes the r-squared is still >.9
but you still need to know which way the line slopes!�
Sep 5, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache If I can give an advice in exchange, sell enough of TSLA so that profits pay for your car after tax. Then even in the worst case you keep your sweet ride for free. Maxing out leverage and going on margin is begging for disaster. In the best case, you just gain a bit less but sleep much better in the meantime.
- - - Updated - - -
You should go and check my comments on those pair trades articles of his.
- - - Updated - - -
I did not say you did the most dangerous type of emotional investing, just that some investing decisions are 100% emotional - I'm sorry if you do not see the difference, I could not help you further. Unfortunately many on TMC do it (the most dangerous way) by maxing out leverage on this TSLA bubble.
- - - Updated - - -
Ironically he was right on many things, but definitely wrong on AXPW and TSLA until now. That said, pas and future are not symmetric, will see.�
Sep 5, 2013
james_chen70 Axion (AXPW) is a penny stock! It is a penny stock for a reason. Good luck, John Petersen...�
Sep 5, 2013
qwk �
Sep 5, 2013
MikeC What?! JP doesn't seem to me like the kind of guy that would have friends.�
Sep 5, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache After "fighting" on SA for several months, while staying polite, he was very kind to invite me and my family to his previous very nice place
Fribourg : Le chteau de Barbereche
He is very funny, friendly and generous but would not tolerate any kind of abuse or unfounded vociferous comments from commenters on his articles. So you guys who discovered his "anti-Tesla" articles recently and telling him he will eat crow (or already should) - been there, done that.
The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [Maxwell Technologies Inc., Valence Technology, Inc.] - Seeking Alpha�
Sep 5, 2013
Dan5 With all respect, for most of the stuff that he was right about, 99% of people who follow the industry would have been right also.
The A123 prediction was a no brainer; I called it and advised a few friends that that could be a short candidate on facebook. They did an epic fail with Fisker, same with others, they banked on Nissan, Ford, and GM selling hundrends of thousands of EVs a year.
Here's what he was right about
A123, Sanyo, and a handful of small fries
Here's what he was wrong about
Exide, maxwell, Tesla, AXPW�
Sep 5, 2013
Krugerrand He gets what he gives and it's just that simple, Nicu. If he'd refrain from name calling and writing in a style and tone that suggests he's somehow superior to the rest of us plebes and knows something no one else possibly could, even the most diehard Tesla fans would treat him better. You earn the respect of others, you don't command it. The world is no longer run by Monarchies and even when it was, the most obnoxious of the bunch tended to be overthrown/stabbed/poisoned etc... many times by family members and closest friends and confidantes. You might mention that to him.�
Sep 5, 2013
JRP3 Sorry Nicu, since I was on the receiving end of many of his completely uncalled for personal attacks when he had no counter for my data I have to call out BS on that one. He was abusive and rude to many, which is why he received the same in kind. What's shocking is how easily you let some personal contact with him cloud your judgement and allowed you to rewrite history in such a manner.
Sal Demir in his recent SA article uses a fictional character named "Johann Bitterson" :biggrin: I LOL'd hard at that one.�
Sep 5, 2013
Jackl1956 Why are we renting space to this guy?�
Sep 5, 2013
StapleGun The past is actually a pretty good indicator of the future, usually it's referred to as "evidence".�
Sep 5, 2013
Yggdrasill Sure, but try driving a car while only looking out the back window...
In investing it's a good thing to constantly reassess one's assumptions. I'm confident that Tesla, the company, will do well. I'm less confident TSLA, the stock, will do well. It cetainly *might* do well, but there's a significant potential for a massive crash. I prefer less volatility.�
Sep 6, 2013
dsm363 It's fine to be wrong about Tesla and their stock a few times but at what point does it become a joke? Anyone can be wrong for a few years in a row and when a correction occurs at some point say 'See! I was right all along'. That takes no expertise at all. I don't care how nice of a guy he is in person, he treats people with an arrogance and disdain that is funny given how horribly uninformed and wrong he had been over and over again. It is this fact that has people piling up on him. If he had simply been wrong a few times that's one thing, it was his Tesla bashing and uninformed attacks against people who pointed out his mistakes that were key.�
Sep 6, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache First, I was only answering to MikeC about JP the person, not the blogger.
Second, since the beginning, I realized / believed JP does not get Tesla. That was a big reason for me to go and see him, to find out why, because I was starting a serious investing project around Tesla. He thought that it's virtually impossible to produce such a nice car with batteries (especially 18650), that they do not have the experience to avoid crushing delays (there were many delays that people tend to forget with time, but those were manageable). He thought that the car would not be safe, but doing a probability analysis with independent small cells, it is more probable that we will al die from a huge asteroid than a Model S to explode - all that if you really believe the cells are prevented from chain reaction. He thought that they will have bad recalls. We all know now about the quality and safety of the product.
He thought that they will run in huge problems with suppliers. That was half right until now, as the ramp-up was slowed down mostly for that reason and it's the main frustration of Elon's interventions in earnings calls for the last 5 quarters or so. But the jury is still open for the huge quantities of batteries needed for the Gen3. And one can ask why worry today about Gen3 when Model S and Model X seem on a very nice ramp-up path? First, it is because not only Gen3 is already priced into the share price, moreover, Gen3 is priced as a huge success. Should there be a period with large dark clouds about this future, TSLA will crash and burn by the time the sun comes back. Also, the environmental argument, if there is no (hugely successful) Gen3, Tesla will not have any kind of impact in the big picture.
I have always argued that Tesla will / could succeed as a premium car manufacturer and until now it did so quite spectacularly. But as a massive car manufacturer? I do not know, that's why I read both sides of the argument and use my (biased) filters. What I try to tell others, the stock is priced for perfection and by the time this perfection is confirmed (large quantities of Gen3 sold, 4-5 years in the future), the stock behavior will surpass even the wildest imagination. If you are not a battlefield hardened warrior, take at least some profits, cover your initial investment, your Model S and tax. Let the remainder run and see where it goes if you will.
If you check nasdaq.com, you will see insiders are having a blast selling their shares and that institutional interest went down by 10M shares in Q2, that is net of the public offering in May (so maybe 15M or so shares unloaded in 3 months). When those guys (investment funds, banks, hedge funds) will have made it big on those inflated shares, they will change direction, push negative stories and what not, and double their gains on the way down. All that is not some kind of prophecy, it may never happen, but if it does (I think it is at least 50% chance), all dreams will go up in smoke in less than 4.4s.�
Sep 6, 2013
rolosrevenge I'm actually kind of hoping it does crash down like you say, a small delay could send a panic and then I can nab lots of shares cheap.�
Sep 6, 2013
dsm363 What makes you think we should listen to his expert analysis when it comes to anything dealing with Tesla or batteries for that matter? He has the tendency to call people stupid even when they were simply pointing out errors in his arguments. Nothing about a nice guy comes across in his online interactions. Seems rather bitter actually. Guess I would be too if I told everyone very loudly that I was an expert in battery technology and to avoid a stock that is up 1000% and to pick a penny stock instead. Axion could jump 1000% tomorrow and still be under $10. He has zero credibility.�
Sep 6, 2013
Causalien I've decided to not invest in AXPW after remembering one of my principals on investing, which is vetting the management and JP's attitude is the cause.�
Sep 7, 2013
Krugerrand Ah, so he's a prime example from that huge experiment all of mankind is currently running where some people are way nastier hiding behind a keyboard and a monitor, then they'd normally be when standing face to face with them.�
Sep 7, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I don't really like to discuss persons. I think he just has had to develop a thick skin on SA and has not much patience with cocksure newbies (who repeat other's newbies same tired arguments hundreds of times).�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I had no intention to "defend" JP, he definitely does not need that and cannot care less about what people on TMC think about him. Most people do not try to understand or bring counter-arguments, they simply try to fight the person and burry the message in noisy BS. Example: his last article. He went to some lengths to obtain costly reports from industry analysts, studied them and presented the industry situation about 18650 production capacity. Then also links that to Tesla's options in the future. What are the first comments to that?
1) "Pathetic.... Go short it... I dare you."
2) "What more could one expect, from a lawyer from South Bend, that is short Tesla. Don't ever give up, till you run out of money."
3) "Who lives and works in a castle in Barbereche, Switzerland with his attorney wife/partner Rachel Fefer and who was formerly board chairman and general counsel of Axion Power International, a company that's trying to introduce a hybrid lead-carbon battery. I would say he's just a tad biased. He's an attorney trying to defend his own [...]"
+ continued personal attacks with no link whatsoever to the article
--------------
Those comments are pure red-neck testosterone induced unjustified attacks and they were not provoked in any way. In his place I would simply report that to SA and keep my comments stream clean. Here on TMC (if they were not "pro Tesla") would not even go to "snippiness", they would be deleted and accounts blocked.
The big picture of what I am arguing here is that even if you do not agree with JP's conclusions, it would be very hard to find out about the state of the Li-ion industry wrt to 18650 capacity production. Instead of learning about that, just because the article contains some arguments against TSLA, people are blinded and engage in behaviors that would make them very ashamed in the real life.
Most people here and those attacking JP are in love with Tesla or TSLA. Coincidentally I have seen a documentary yesterday which discussed the mechanisms put in place by the brain when we fall in love so that we do not see the shortcomings of the partner. Not only increased levels of stress, but also more dopamine and serotonin. They said it generally lasts 3-6 months, time by which normally offspring is guaranteed (an evolutionist argument, of course). I just hope that TSLA will stay around $150 or higher for at least 3-6 months so that some of those who are today blind to risks will realize profits and reevaluate the situation with a clear head.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman Nicu, it's awfully conspicuous that you choose not to reply to folks like JRP3. If you're truly interested in a useful intellectual debate, perhaps you'd bridge the gap between JP and some of the folks on TMC that want to have such a debate. Rather than trot out "there's riff raff on the web and here are examples". Focus on the worthwhile discussions and address them directly rather than cherry-pick low-value comments as an excuse.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Brian, I have no intention to start a crusade in JP's name. I am not accusing anybody on the other side either. If 5% of the people who read this thread manage to look at the problem from a different point of view and gain some perspective, I am very happy. For that, I am even ready to take some snippiness from people like ppl (who do not even get it when they are trapped
I gave those example to show what I meant with repeated personal attacks and "cocksure newbies" arguments. But even arguments from veteran well respected contributors on SA can be (almost) empty and here JP is even less forgiving because one has higher expectations from them.
Example: Nick Butcher was vehemently arguing that even the present Model S is more sustainable than conventional cars, using his assumptions of 300k miles over the life of the car and 23kg of Cobalt used in its batteries. I have simply checked independent data for oil and Cobalt world production to show him that he loses his "bet" by a factor of 38 (that is, he is 2.6% right and 97.4% wrong, if you accept this formulation). Of course, the usual defense "things will change" ensued, while we were talking about today's Model S. Well, in this case, JP does not even bother to consider Nick's arguments, because Nick knows about his archive of articles where the details of my computations are.
Here is the link to my comment (be aware that you may give a penny to the Devil if it's your first view of this article)
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints - Seeking Alpha
So, JRP3, most of the "arguments" in those comments streams, are not what they seem and have already been explained / debunked.�
Sep 8, 2013
SebastianR I guess if we were to "settle" this properly, we would need a Wiki that lists the different arguments and then starts a tree structure of argument and counter argument. What I really dislike on all sides is the "argument flip-flopping" e.g. starting off by claiming that Tesla should achieve X in the market and then arguing with market irrationalities if it does not come through etc.
But in general: I think all parties involved in this kerfuffle should from time to time take a deep breath, take a step back and stop taking themselves so damn serious. I love to laugh at JP and the way he expresses himself, the way he battles comments and the pirouettes he turns to explain away his cognitive dissonances, but I'm keenly aware that I'm just a clown poking a stick in the mud trying to find some gold�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Sebastian, I see we have some similar feelings. I'm afraid a serious and emotionless discussion / wiki is not possible in practice with those rivers of hormones flowing around us. Even if you try to get on even ground, talking for example only what exists today, instead of what could be, arguments have a very hard time to stay focused on the ball and will fly in incontrollable directions. And the hardest thing is to consider the global problem instead of obsessing over details and fighting for each small issue in isolation.
If there is no humor or even snippiness, we would not be able to focus on very long technical explanations (most of us already have hard technical things to worry about in the real life). As an example, for that reason I am glad Julian Cox (sorry if I misspelled the name) was banned from SA. Each argument got even longer, with longer twisted phrases, less meat and higher tone (not to mention the suffocating increasing frequency of those interventions). I'm not sure I ever got to read one of his interventions to the end (not enough value for the pain IMO).�
Sep 8, 2013
Dan5 Ill start off with this JP argument
From the Norwegian LCA the Tesla battery has an extremely high eutrophication potential.
Rebuttal
The Norwegian LCA study was a bad study, then you compounded the errors in the study by averaging the two fictional EV batteries for Eutrophication and presenting it as a Tesla battery. The fact that one of the 2 batteries in the LCA was lithium iron phosphate completely skews the results. Eutrophication is a measure if "fertilizers", i.e. phosphates, so using a compound with phosphates in its name throws it off drastically.
Can make over 50 Prius batteries with the same manufacturing and raw materials at the Tesla Model S battery
Rebuttal
This statement was made in early 2012, at that point Toyota was using Nickel metal hydride batteries. If you do the mass balance, a Prius uses more nickel per battery than a Model S 85 kwhr battery. Secondly, making a large amount of battery packs also contributes to the energy and resource usage. Thirdly, even the lithium batteries toyota uses are inherently different than a Tesla battery. Toyota has no reason to use NCA, they would either use LMO or iron phosphate or NCM. For his statement to be true, lithium would have to be the bottleneck, and he conceeded in an earlier arguement that it is not.
Copper is the contraining material
Rebuttal
While true EVs use a tad more copper, even if all the cars became EVs overnight, it would only increase copper demand by about 20%. The largest consumer of copper is home construction. In the past when there was a copper shortage, aluminum was used in place of copper, in fact, it is currently making a resurgence since most of the safety issues have been indentified and solved. There is no copper shortage�
Sep 8, 2013
Zythryn J.P. is very talented at inciting emotional replies.
His analysis are littered with dismissive terms to Tesla investors and derogatory terms towards the technology.
His description of the Tesla batteries as "floppy disks" is a great example of that.
Most people, hearing that term, think 'obsolete'. But if called to task, JP can simply say that isn't what he meant and blame the misunderstanding upon the reader.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Dan5, that's what I meant with "obsessing over details and fighting for each small issue in isolation".
Whatever the names of manufacturers or the exact composition of cells, cells are interchangeable in applications and many basic materials are common to families of cells that can be optimized for power, energy and / or safety. So instead of recognizing the universal truth that instead of selling one liter of lemonade for $3 is better to sell 5 200ml cups for $1 each, many Tesla fans bring minutiae details as roadblocks. Without being mean, this really recalls JP's relatively funny expression of bringing a swiss knife to a gun battle.�
Sep 8, 2013
Robert.Boston [Moderator's request:
I think we've done more than enough analysis of John Peterson and his motives. This thread is to analyze/address his writings and not his character. I have moved some posts to snippiness, and any further ad hominem comments about Peterson or TMC members will be banished to there, too.
Nicu wrote, "If there is no humor or even snippiness, we would not be able to focus on very long technical explanations." Perhaps, but even then these elements need to be the leavening, not the whole loaf.
@Nicu also wrote "Here on TMC (if they were not "pro Tesla") would not even go to "snippiness", they would be deleted and accounts blocked." I'm disturbed that you believe that TMC moderators are anything but even-handed in our work. If you have concerns about biased or fanboy-ish moderation, you should communicate directly with doug. It is certainly not the my intention nor, I believe, the intention of any other moderator to selectively moderate based on the opinions expressed.]�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Zythryn, I am not sure you understood the metaphor (I had a hard time in the beginning, too), it's about the 18650 format, not about Tesla's battery pack. And it's not so much (but maybe a bit, due to rigid manufacturing constraints) related to the technical capabilities of those cells, but about the industry's dynamic. There is indeed some spare capacity that will increase a bit in the short term (fewer thick laptops). But Tesla aside, there is not much demand or demand growth in this cell format. It is too risky for existing manufacturers to bet billions to build more capacity, they have already been hit hard once and cannot be dependent on Tesla. In this regard, the 18650 is a legacy product, innovations and production capacities will not concentrate around it anymore.
The real danger for Tesla from this story is that once they grow to absorb the unused production capacity which provides cheap cells (that profit from written off facilities), their growth will come to a halt. Either they change the structure of the battery pack (but then it's again Gen 1, not Gen 3 - they have many years of expertise with the current approach; no more technological moat etc.), or they have to pay the full price of cells from new expensive facilities (that include depreciation of assets) so the plans for a $35k 200 mile range EV would have to be delayed or changed.
This would imply that the valuation of TSLA which implies great success of the Gen3 is already in the bag, will take a hit at some point. If you are not convinced what the valuation implies, take a look at the table here, and think what else could motivate such enormity
Tesla Investors Are Crazier Than Elon Musk (TSLA)
One more thing. I am not trying to convince anyone and I do not intend to fight those who will try to "destroy" my explanations. This is an answer to Zythryn of what I understood from the last article of JP, take what you want from it.�
Sep 8, 2013
Dan5 Nicu
I was citing the cell raw material costs which he asserts is $1.50. Its not quibbling over small details if the premise is that there can not be any further decrease in battery costs.
Further calling the 18650 cells as floppy drives is a complete and utter failure to illicit a negative response.
The floppy drives failed because the market fell out. Had floppy drives offered 700 mb storage in the same packet, that could be accessed at the same speed as a CD, there would still be a market. Recently i tried to access a 3.5 floppy from years ago, boy was it slow to access a word doc. Had the same info on a USB, plugged in the USB, and read the same file faster.
Even if Tesla was the only one to use the 18650 batteries there would still be a rather substantial market for the cells.
For example, Tesla, to make 20,000 vehicles per year, requires 160 million cells.
Back to floppy discs, floppy discs became obsolete due to more portable, higher capacity storage devices. The market fell out because consumers were not purchasing them. The only way the 18650 market will fall out is if Tesla decides not to uses it.
Consumers when it comes to EVs dont really care if the cells are prismatic, 18650, or run powered by a AA batteries. As long as the car moves from point A to point B it really doesnt matter.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Dan5, I have tried to explain what I understood from the floppy disk metaphor in my previous comment. I do not think I have much of value to add to that.
As for the costs of raw materials, at the beginning of his article, JP mentions
"The detail in this article is courtesy of my friends at Avicenne Energy, a leading consultant to the lithium-ion battery industry and the sponsor of Batteries 2013, the second largest advanced battery conference in the world."
Have you considered the fact that they may know more than you do about batteries? And that a simple approach of opening up a cell and looking inside would not provide much insight about the costs, composition and manufacturing complexities?
EDIT: when in doubt about the actual number, have you considered politely asking JP if this is in the Avicenne report or not, if he can provide details or links etc.? Even if negative (I do not think so), the experience could prove to be very interesting.�
Sep 8, 2013
neroden Tesla's battery pack design is not, fundamentally, dependent on a specific form factor for the cells. They'd have to redesign the internal layout of the pack, but it would be a pull-in pull-out swap.
Could happen. I expect Gen3 to be delayed.
The valuation of Tesla doesn't imply that; in fact it doesn't require the Gen3 to be manufactured at all.
If Tesla retains current gross profit margins, there is a level of Model S/Model X sales which justifies valuations somewhat higher than TSLA's current stock price. Suppose Tesla sets up a second production line for Model X and runs both production lines full blast on three shifts, and sells all the cars. Since Tesla has a lock on the worldwide market for electric cars at the Model S / Model X price level, I personally believe that Tesla can hit those levels of sales. Your estimate of the market for high-end electric cars may differ. I, however, believe that Tesla's current stock price can be justified even if Tesla never manufactures Gen3, based on Model S & X sales alone.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache neoden, have you checked the link I provided wrt valuation? even at 200k / y Model S + Model X, today's valuation is very rich. But it is here today, and 200k luxury cars per year is just one of many possible futures. Have you asked yourself at what price would TSLA be overvalued in 2013? What would have the answer been before the end of March?
What I am trying to communicate here is about anchoring, we all fall pray to it, sometimes even if we are highly trained experts in the matter
Anchoring - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
Sep 8, 2013
Dan5 Nicu
What you also have to consider is that JP tends to cherry pick data that suits his needs and his assumptions . Same reason why republicans watch Fox news. His track record in terms of picking fair and balanced papers does not bode well.
As an example, he chose the notorious "Norwegian" LCA and then chose to write detailed paper criticizing Teslas batteries, instead of using the 95% of the papers that contradict the paper.
Its much better to look at the materials and take apart a battery than basing off a report.
Then take a look at the LUX paper he cited for microhybrids. Bottom line is theory and papers are all well and good, BUT nothing beats feet on the ground and experimental data.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Dan5, everybody cherry picks data. Most our decisions are made subconsciously and the rational part of the brain is working just to rationalize those choices (psychological experiments of simple choices like right / left show that the decision is taken about 7 seconds before we even know we have decided - of course, this does not apply to real-time reactions to the exterior world, our automatisms are much faster in this case, about a quarter of a second from the stimuli to the physical reaction). Very few decisions, and usually not the best of them, are rational as opposed to intuitive (lots of experience built into intuition).
That said, you were interested to find out the answer of a specific question. Even if JP's answer in not complete or wrong, it may give you some starting point or some important detail. If you are afraid of some public attack from him (you should not be if you are polite), you could simply send him a private message on SA. You have a very good chance to get some valuable answer (in the worst case you just delete the account and forget about it). If your sentiments prevent you from dropping a short question for a chance to get your answer, then either this answer is not so valuable to you or ... Houston, we have a problem!�
Sep 8, 2013
Krugerrand I've explained to you why he gets those comments, but you seem to be having a hard time understanding or you don't care to hear it or understand it. People don't say those kinds of things unprovoked (unless impaired by mental illness or chemicals).
And you were able to apply what you learned in that documentary to your own loving view of J.P.?
That's exactly something J.P. would say. That can't be taken as a sincere concern for others because of the back-handed slap of assumed state of people you made. Let me rephrase it for you so that it's non-offensive to all: I hope everyone is successful with their TSLA investments.�
Sep 8, 2013
Zzzz... Probably some non-nonsense came out from JP, QUOTE:"Tesla is currently paying something on the order of $200 to $250 per kWh at the cell". Which is close to mine guess on the matter.
But one thing he gets terribly wrong - Panasonic already build factory pretty much anticipating Model S demand. And that demand was at very high risk of not happening. Now that Tesla is already accomplished Model S large scale production and soon introduce Model X, battery manufacturers would be in much better position to invest seeing 35k units production rate to anticipate 150k future needs (initial target for Gen3).
Besides, when JP talks about 75% cost of li-ion cells coming from "raw material", he doesn't really mean true raw material costs, but cathode material. And cathode material do have a huge potential to price drop as volume grows and production tech improving.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache that's why I stressed those were the first comments on the article; whatever occurred elsewhere between them, should stay there; that's exactly one of my arguments, they are chemically impaired, but the chemicals' source is in their own brain
JP is my friend (not my lover LOL), but I try to keep that separated from my opinions; if you go several comments higher, you will observe that I do not hesitate to clearly and loudly criticize some of his opinions that do not correspond to my position
incidentally, "I hope everyone is successful with their TSLA investments" is an almost exact phrase John uses, but which seems very offensive to some
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In my first SA article about Tesla, I said "From the DOE document we get a price of $200-$250 / kWh of 18650 cells." - boy, how much ridicule, fairy dust and hopium pipes I got from those Axionistas (no joke this time !)
One should check, but JP affirms Panasonic bought their 18650 production capacity in 2010 from Sanyo, so they have not built much. Moreover, they took $6B of losses from this acquisition since then. Those are historical facts that are for sure reported to the SEC. If anyone has the energy to debunk that, good luck. But before that, I think we should not invent other variants of history.
Just by chance, a very fresh comment he made explains why those materials are so expensive and provides a link to serious analysis of related historical facts
Link to Comment
It the main cost in these materials are the ore and the energy it takes to obtain the desired purity, I do not see how they can get much cheaper.�
Sep 8, 2013
Zzzz... The factory producing NCA cells came online shortly before Tesla started to produce Model S. Who decided to invest in additional capacities actually irrelevant. But decision to invest was to a degree based on anticipated demand and the signed contract that secured Tesla's right to purchase battery packs for up to 80 000 units.
What JP is claiming is that there is almost no room for li-ion price drop due to 75% of battery costs are the costs of raw material. It is a lie. Plain and simple - an intentional misleading of the readers due to JP agenda. The "raw material" he referring to is a high tech products of very complex and sophisticated processes. There are lots of room for technology improvements and price decreases due economy of scale/competition. Basically when JP talking about "raw material" an uneducated reader would imagine something that could not be made cheaper that what the price is now. But in reality li-ion cells have a potential to cost several times cheaper then they cost now.
Ore and energy represent single digit percentage of cost of the cell. Even lithium itself contribute on the order of 2%-3% of cell cost(with all ore and energy needed for lithium production already included). Cobalt is expansive, but there are magnesium based chemistries. Companies like Envia Systems are trying to lower cost of kWh by removing cobalt from equation. Most costs are coming from purification processes, particle creation and structuring chemicals and their composition.
Overall JP claim that li-ion cells could not be made much cheaper then today is a bull****.�
Sep 8, 2013
JRP3 Exactly, you've been on the other end of the abuse from Petersen and his crew, so it should not surprise you that he gets it back in turn.
Indeed, one should check. Panasonic built a new plant in China and upgraded an existing one, in 2011-2012:
http://www.zemotoring.com/news/2011/04/panasonic-to-build-new-366-million-lithium-ion-plant-in-china
http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120717-2/en120717-2.html
Panasonic also recently claimed profits from their small format cell production, don't have the link handy.
Here is how, they get cheaper per kWh by storing more energy in the same amount of material, that's the whole point of energy density progression. Plus newer chemistry using less expensive materials such as LiS and LiSi.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Well, let's attempt a simple computation. One 3.4Ah 3.6V means 12.24 Wh, even if not all that energy is squeezable from the cell. Use the 455 multiplier you find in the linked study, that means about 5.57 kWh used to make that cell, including materials. What is the price of electricity during peak hours when plants refine metals? 10c / kWh more or less. That means 56c or 37.3% of the claimed $1.5 per cell (much, much more if you think that price is way below $1). It doesn't look like single digits to me. Of course, one can argue about the voltage of the cell, the price of electricity etc. but I think you would have a hard time erasing an order of magnitude from that.
This is speculation about future stuff. You do not know how this could be enabled in the 18650 format or if it caters to Tesla's specifications. If it's so easy, why hasn't Tesla with all those experts and geniuses there haven't thought of that before? Maybe because things are harder than they seem from outside?
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Well, I've survived and learned quite a bit since then.
We know that a lot of Li-ion capacity has been built recently, but we do not know if much of it is for 18650 (that was the whole argument around the floppy disk). I am not saying it is not, just that it is not clear from the link.
That is the slow and hard way. Those Si 4Ah cells were promised by Panasonic 4 years ago and they are still MIA. If you get a step up change in price from new factories (that have to be amortized) after Tesla absorbs the unused capacity, it will erase many years of slow and painful gains.�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 Maybe you should set up your own thread. This really isn't about JP anymore.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I did not plan to get so involved into this discussion, and while I still feel a bit of uneasy opposition, it is much better than my previous experience here and I had some fun exchanging with you guys. I am not sure my input is wanted so I may just wait and see.
As for the topic, it is about the $1.5 / cell and 18650 capacity "nonsense" from JP. Maybe if they become legitimate subjects, even if originated by JP, they do not belong to this thread? That would really be welcome change�
Sep 8, 2013
JRP3 Except that I've previously pointed out how wrong that figures is: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728544-jrp3/1648701-garbage-in-garbage-out-bad-data-leads-to-wrong-conclusion-about-tesla-battery-pack�
Sep 8, 2013
Norbert It seems to me you are just describing the general kind of difficulties any technical progress has. JP, and now you, are making it sound as if that means Tesla will get stuck in delays and batteries will never get cheaper. However technical progress will keep taking place, as it has for hundreds of years. It's just business as usual.�
Sep 8, 2013
JRP3 I must point out that this is a typical Petersen tactic, try and discredit the people by using irrelevant distraction and avoid the actual issues being discussed. Fact is you have no idea what feelings people may or may not have about Tesla or TSLA unless they specifically express them to you.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman No.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache What JP argued in his last article is that some tech is in its twilight (not all batteries, of course, just this format 18650). He may be wrong, but most data we have suggest not. Tesla will find itself at a crossroad and the choices do not look rosy in the mid-term. Long-term, most problems can be solved but today it is too hard to see exactly how and which companies will benefit.
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Well, in order to explain or justify such actions, Krugerrand suggested above that it is because they are impaired by mental illness or chemicals. I hesitated in between blind fate and love, and I have chosen the latter because it is more polite. Do you have any other suggestions for likely causes?
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This is of course not insinuating that this is a conscious process with the scope of twisting the truth (so maybe I should have replaced the fruit in that phrase). But in practice, the amount of data and opinions is so large, that one has to make choices. Most of the time, we do not make painful choices and seek information that contradicts our sensibilities. Kudos to those who regularly do, but even them cannot take into account all data.�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 Invite JP to join the discussion here. Since he can't get dissenting views banned though I doubt he'd be willing to discuss things here.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman Ouch. There-in lies the crux of the matter.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache JRP3, this is a rant, not a serious study. No wonder the only other commenter is Julian Cox. I am no expert in this so I tend to trust studies like this by teams of experts who take a large range of aspects into consideration
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/644.PDF
If you want a competent opinion on your instablog, you should probably ask MRTTF on SA, he is a PhD chemist working in the Li-ion industry. The only thing that crosses my mind is that higher capacity batteries need higher purity components which in turn need more energy to be made. I may be wrong, it is just a suggestion why that could be.
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I think SA has a public policy for deleting comments or banning people / accounts. I have just checked, I cannot delete a comment on my articles. As far as I know, TMC is private property where we only have privileges but no rights.
Of course you do not believe what you say (given even the title of this thread). But as far as I know, when JP is under contract, he charges in a day what I make in about 6 weeks (sometimes I wonder why I did a PhD). That thing with the monetary value from one article on SA being the equivalent of a short phone call with a client is no metaphor. I am amazed by the energy he spends not only collecting data and trying to share it in his articles, but also answering to so many comments. It is in that sense that I said he is a valuable resource once one can stay polite (he will not attempt to put you down for ignorance, only for aggressive ignorance).�
Sep 8, 2013
sleepyhead I don't know anything about the battery industry, but I think that I will trust Elon when it comes to batteries.
You guys are wasting your time debating the battery issue. If Elon says it can be done, then it will be done. You can spend 20 hours a day researching battery issues and you will come up with a conclusion that is most likely going to be completely wrong.
In Elon we trust!
I would rather blindly trust Elon's word than anybody's "well thought out" research on this subject.
There is no battery issue. Tesla will get it done.�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 He reports people to SA which then bans them without warning or cause really. 'Aggressive ignorance' whatever that means should be educated, not put down. If he truly is an expert and someone has something wrong and isn't calling him stupid, he has no cause to say they live in a fairy land and have the intelligence of a fifth grader (a common putdown of his). I guess you see him in the most positive light possible.
He is welcome to start a thread here and name calling or putdowns on either side will not be tolerated.�
Sep 8, 2013
Norbert Tesla uses 18650 only because it provides better $/kWh and specific other technical advantages. And that's what 18650 actually provides, according to the data we have. Calling that "twilight" seems a bit of a distortion to me, if not an implied insult. If a battery manufacturers is able (and willing) to provide better and more cost-effective technology in any other format, Tesla will surely be happy to switch at a moment's notice. Tesla is not stuck with a "twilight" technology, they are free to choose whichever technology they consider best for the customer.
If manufacturers don't provide that, and aren't willing to consider Tesla (and the rest of the market with similar priorities) as a sufficient market, then Tesla may build their own battery factories, which I think would be a good thing in the first place. Unless you think Tesla/Elon are bluffing when they talk about that. I actually wanted Tesla to do that since the beginning (as soon as they have sufficient means to do so). Nissan does so as well, with a lower total annual battery capacity going into Leafs. (in the US, at least.)
Should Tesla adopt inferior technology just to follow the example of laptop manufacturers who want a thin format? Why? Electric cars will be a much larger market for batteries, it doesn't make any sense. They should build the batteries square or octagonal or round or whatever produces the best results. Shouldn't be a real problem to continue using an already established format.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman I'd like to hear Nico's thoughts on this, and -- frankly -- JP's response to such allegations.
This is not the first example of what appears to be journalistic and ethical challenges regarding JP. Without journalistic integrity and general ethics, nothing JP says is worth the attention of anyone.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Even when he said that in TSLA's price a flawless future is assumed?
Could you please agree that this is emotional investing and it's blind fate?�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 Agree. I'd love to here how this is explained. Those that went to TESLIVE and saw rolosrevenge talk can say he knows his stuff. JP has been wrong so many times on so many levels that just because he is right now and then doesn't mean his expert analysis is any good.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman Yup. Note that not everybody saw rolo's talk (it was one of the session choices).�
Sep 8, 2013
rolosrevenge This is why I sold my shares, if I've learned anything about Tesla, they can't launch without hiccups, the hiccups are not fatal, but it does mean delays, since this stock price assumes flawless execution, I expect there to be some serious dropping when they miss their first Model X release date or only release 10 or so and then it's months of nothing. Long term, they'll nail it, but flawless execution along the way, I seriously doubt it, but then again, I could be wrong.
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I know my stuff on that topic :redface: I actually recommended him to redact the whole article he wrote since it was so easily proved wrong and it would pull down his "thesis"�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache This is indeed his fault (if things are as you say, I have no reason to believe otherwise, but no hard proof either - please note that he cannot decide to delete comments, only to report them to SA, and anybody could report "abuses"). He is definitely not a scientist or an engineer, and if he has some expertise and up to date information, it is in the battery industry (not the science), not on the grid (in previous decades he also worked with the oil and mining industry).
I've always said one should use his own filters and thinking and pick up the real information which is hard to find otherwise, but I have to admit that such behavior surprises me. I have seen him many times refrain from commenting on matters where he has no expertise and recognizing his limits. I genuinely admire persons who know to say "I don't know!" - many times you get this answer from the most knowledgeable people.�
Sep 8, 2013
rolosrevenge He only deleted his comments so mine were out of context, a proper redaction should have the comment edited with the line through it and a followup agreeing that the comment was wrong.�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 Anyone who can talk on a highly technical topic like this with such authority and also carry around a flip phone demands respect:smile: I thought it was a great talk so thanks.
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That is not his style though. He seems to make up or find data to support his thesis then when someone who does have expertise in the area like rolosrevenge comes along, he shouts them down, calls them names or reports them to SA for a ban. SA always seems to ban people at the drop of a hat without good reason (no threats, foul language, taunts...etc, just reasoned arguments that go against the author's thesis or makes them look bad).�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Tesla has done impossible things. Never before even a normal car (let alone the best car on so many levels) has been put together in such a short time, starting from no team, no factory, nothing. Shorts were betting that even if Tesla is exceptionally good, there will be big problems and they will get rich. Tesla's team was way above that level and shorts lost. Btw, Model X has already been delayed by one year or so.
But as you say, perfection is priced in. And even Tesla is not perfect and they act in a given economical and physical world and even them cannot walk on water. If only Model X was priced to perfection, it would not be so bad. But Model E (Gen3) is priced in to perfection. This should be scary for over-leveraged longs.
I am trying to figure out a plan to short it (with puts) even if a rational economic agent would simply stay away from a bubble
This is nothing personal, I do admire Tesla, but they are still far from a $20B company.�
Sep 8, 2013
wycolo > this is why I sold my shares, [rolosrevenge]
You make it sound like you dumped them, not even waiting for a peak. It surely is no crime to take profits when needed, or even better to establish a new position with profits only, taking your original investment out and putting it to work elsewhere. Cramer-speak for 'playing with the house's money'. But taking profits on a regular basis, with taxes in mind, should be every investor's goal. Don't want to be that poor soul who had xxxx shares of Enron stashed away year after year, didn't follow the news, and ended up with zilch, nada, nichts.
--�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache You can delete your own comments, but only for a few minutes after posting them. Are you sure it was not some kind of misunderstanding before things heated up? Once a "fight" starts, it is very hard to know who hit who and why.�
Sep 8, 2013
rolosrevenge I only posted three comments at once, one on the article in general, and two replies to different conversations he was having where his assertions were extremely far off. Then I just went back the next day to see his responses and left it at that. I didn't want to do a shouting match, just get out the truth since he was misrepresenting the position of the IEEE and the PES.
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True. This is why I sold my shares at a 300% profit, I'm just waiting for the drop to get back in, never thought It'd go this high this fast, I could have been at a 550%�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman Ok, someone has to call you on this.
I think the onus is on you to follow up with JP on this, not on everybody else on the planet to see if they misunderstood. Take some responsibility for your friend's behavior -- by following up and making thing right -- rather than putting this task on other people. There's a chorus here giving you rich information and you seem to refuse to want to contact your friend about it. At a certain point you have to choose whether your own ethics allow you to keep deflecting or not.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I am not accusing anyone here. I just wanted to better understand the situation from the only person who knows and would agree to speak about the incident. I will definitely not open up old things like that, I had my own altercations with JP (about Tesla, obviously).
My friend or not, no one is perfect. I do stupid things from time to time that I would qualify as lowly from other people. Who am I to judge a one year old fact for which I have only general lines description?�
Sep 8, 2013
rolosrevenge At the time I think you had a few hours to delete or alter comments.
Oh, I just noticed this is my 1000th post.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman You insinuated that the person with no power (the poster) has the responsibility of making sure there wasn't a misunderstanding rather than the one with power (JP). JP (or his friends as SA) 'allegedly' played "moderation games" not the commenters.
Isn't that kind of like saying that the responsibility is on the citizen to make sure that the cop didn't misread his radar gun?�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 So you are good friends with JP and a big defender of his when multiple people have given evidence of his behavior and you are not willing to ask him about this incident or have him comment? Maybe he has learned something since those comments were deleted or didn't know about that and can have them restored. Out of everyone here you seem to have the best access to him.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman A true friend calls you on stuff when you step out of line and tries to help you make it right.�
Sep 8, 2013
sleepyhead No it's not, I did my research and TSLA is still a bargain at these prices (unless we hit a recession/bear market, which we won't).
You are completely wrong on this. We know Model S demand is above 50k worldwide and if Model X is the same you will have 100k cars sold at ASP of $100k for annualized sales of $10bn just 2 or 3 years from now (this is your "perfect execution" scenario). $20bn market cap and $10bn in sales = 2x price to sales multiple which is a bargain for a company like Tesla. Oh, and this means that Model E is a free option at current prices and Model S/X isn't even priced for perfection.
We had this discussion prior to Q2 earnings when Tesla was around $110 - $120. I was buying calls and you told me I was wrong and you were buying puts. Turns out I was right and if you do buy puts, you are going to be wrong again.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache If that would be a recent thing that I saw happening, I might (sometimes one has to weight the cost and the gain of such thing; we met once and exchange PM every month or two, it's not like we're engaged and have to solve all potential clouds before some important event). JP has 25k comments and you want me to ask him about some comment he deleted one or two years ago while insinuating he did this on purpose to hide ignorance? If he did not accept the situation then, why would he do it now?�
Sep 8, 2013
Norbert For the record, today is a Sunday and Friday's closing price was $166.97.�
Sep 8, 2013
sleepyhead And for the record, sleepyhead says that TSLA is going up from here because it is not priced for perfection as Nicu says it is; not even close to perfection.�
Sep 8, 2013
dsm363 Well then bring up that specific article and I'm sure when can get rolosrevenge to re-write what is wrong with it for you to pass along. Then report back if he is willing to amend his article or write a followup article with what he as learned. You've positioned yourself here as a good friend and big supporter of JP yet you now say you've only met him once and exchange the occasional PM.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman It's always easy to find an excuse for inaction. You have several examples from this thread of people that have apparently been treated improperly by JP regarding his articles. Pick one that seems to have merit and follow up through completion. Perhaps you'll learn something. Perhaps he will. Perhaps the other affected parties will as well.
Doing nothing and then just chiming in on TMC as you've done so far in this thread without follow-up action is just making things worse.
From what I've seen in this thread (and others), I have a low enough opinion of JP that I don't even click a link on anything where his name is even mentioned. It feels like it's just not worth my time or anyone else's.
Continuing on the way you have been with this thread frankly starts to put your posts in the same light. Take from that what you will.
People are judged by their actions, their friends, and combinations of both.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Congrats! If I start a short play, I will be prepared to be wrong several times, even all of them, because there is no way to time a bubble burst. But sometimes you just have to play the odds if you aim for outsized gains.
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dsm363, brianman - you may have got my intentions / message wrong. I am not here to defend JP as a person, just as a source of information that I think most of the time has more value than pain (energy / time loss). After a week or two, he considers articles "not alive" as very few people check them anymore (he barely answers any comments, I have a feeling he likes to have the last word on some issues). They have indeed an importance as an archive, but they are not important enough to me to make any efforts. rolos' story is the first that made me have second thoughts here, but I will simply integrate that in my database and that's it. I do not feel I should find excuses for anything above.
About friendship (wow guys, you transform this into a soap opera): well, when someone invites you to his place for a week-end (and in a foreign country) and takes great care of you, I call him / her a friend. We keep in touch for two years and I can ask whatever information he could help with. But I would not call him to tell him about my daily problems. Heck, I barely talk to anyone about that. He's far from being my best friend or something and I confess we did not sleep together. Am I still allowed to post on TMC, LOL?�
Sep 8, 2013
sleepyhead I agree that you can't time a bubble burst and that is why you should not be shorting TSLA on the way up. If you want to short TSLA then wait till it starts going down before shorting it.
If you don't believe me then take a look at Cisco Systems: It's $80 dollar valuation before the tech bubble burst in 2000, required them to grow revenues to $4 trillion within a decade to justify its valuation (we did this exercise in an MBA Investment class). Someone then said that it was an obvious short idea, to which the professor responded:
"It was way overvalued at $40 or even $30, so if you shorted it then you would have been wiped out before being proven correct." It is a bad idea to short these types of stocks. As far as TSLA goes it is not in bubble territory yet.�
Sep 8, 2013
brianman I don't think that was ever in question. My point is that you've tarnished your own credibility beyond JP discussions based on how you've handled yourself with JP discussions.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache That may have been the reason the story looked a bit bizarre. I had no intention to accuse you of anything, I'm sorry if you perceived my question otherwise.�
Sep 8, 2013
NigelM I know it's Sunday, but don't any of you people have anything better to do today? :wink:�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache If you say so, be it. I still do not understand your point. Have you missed my comment when I said JP was wrong in that case?�
Sep 8, 2013
rolosrevenge I didn't think you did. That article was two years ago at least so I doubt he even remembers it.�
Sep 8, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I do not have my Model S yet
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Thanks for confirming my brain is not in foul state, the last few posts (not yours) were somehow sending me back to high school when we were discussing for hours what friendship, love and justice is ... I started suspecting there is something really wrong and I should put myself in sleep mode.�
Sep 8, 2013
sleepyhead Nicu - Here is a good article for you to read:
Why Tesla Motors Is the Wrong Stock to Short (TSLA)
�
Sep 8, 2013
Dan5 So far we have experts with advanced degrees who completely disagree with what JP says
Grid dispersion and loading- rolosrevenge
Life cycle assessments- Dan5
We need is a finance person, a person familiar with mining, a person familiar with lithium battery recycling, and a lithium battery manufacturing expert and we have all the bases covered.
Most certainly JP is not a grid expert like rolosrevenge, nor is he a life cycle assessment expert like myself;
Its a matter of who you believe more, a person whose done a PhD in the field OR a person who does not have a PhD and misinterprets the facts.�
Sep 8, 2013
NigelM Maybe it's just me but I'm a little tired of reading posts saying "JP is not all bad"; "Yes, he is"; "No, he's not"; Yes, he is"....
Here's the truth as I see it: JP takes points which might have some marginal validity and builds an overblown negative case that is guaranteed to provoke people who then post comments while he brushes them off. It's his game, that's who he is; whatever his motivations, it ain't gonna change anytime soon. If JP led folks to short the stock, great! Some of us made some nice money betting the other way. I'm cool with that.
Oh, I also believe that Nicu thinks John is a nice guy, he probably is, but we really don't need to convince Nicu that he's pals with Satan do we?�
Sep 8, 2013
Vexar That's just not fair. I read the article and was annoyed. I don't think Mr. Petersen understood why the 3 1/2 inch micro diskette faded. When they fell the wayside, the replacing technology was not USB memory sticks (for those who might think it was so), it was CD/RW discs, which are, oddly, larger. In the interim were the 3M Zip then Jazz drives, but those were short-lived and brought no end to the micro diskette.
The real end of the micro diskette was the CD/RW discs, for a few reasons: mechanical failures of the diskette drive, data loss in the magnetic medium, and capacity and speed. Once CD/RW discs (even the CD/R) were at about $1.00 a disc, perhaps even more than that, people stopped using micro diskette drives. Oddly, CD/R's and CD/RW's were initially comparatively much more unreliable and people would "burn coasters" very often with media failures. Further, even to this day, the reliability of CD/R's and CD/RW's is still much lower than magnetic media (in general), due to the discs losing lamination at a much faster rate than magnetic media losing a bit polarity. Additionally, repairs in place are much easier in a magnetic medium than a Compact Disc.
So, the question you should be asking yourself is why micro diskettes fell out of vogue. It's not like hard drives died off. Friction and dust were a real problem for the diskette format. If the Zip and Jazz drives actually went anywhere (Jazz could hold 1GB) and had some price benefits, they might have edged out CDs, because they were better at this issue. The invention of the diode laser made CD drives much cheaper. Ask anyone who has owned a classic laserdisc player. That comes to the last point: a medium that works on computers and entertainment systems. Because this CD technology crossed that border, it had significant value to consumers.
Now, having exhaustively dissected the metaphor, let's return to it: the 18650 battery is like a lot more like the compact disc today. The bugs are all worked out of the system, they are cheap, and they are used by multiple industries.
Reflections?�
Sep 8, 2013
hcsharp I remember starting on a large project once that went a considerable distance into uncharted territory. There were lots of discussions with experienced engineers; some doubted its feasibility. There was one guy in particular who I initially hated because he was quite negative on the whole thing. Eventually he became my most valuable resource even though he doubted almost all of my solutions would work. He forced me to defend my ideas. That process helped me gain more confidence to move forward at critical junctions, despite his objections. Sometimes I wonder if I would have given up without his criticism. He also prevented some serious problems that nobody else would have seen.
JP would be useful that way except that he's so hopelessly biased that you can't separate the useful information from the useless. Nicu, OTOH, I find quite useful. Many of you have lumped him in the same pot as JP just because he defends him and he's shorting TSLA, but I think you have misinterpreted him. He is a strong supporter of Tesla. Best of all, he's not rude. Nicu also directly challenged JP on TSLA. I'm surprised to see so many negative reactions to Nicu's posts. Look at the value his perspective has brought to this thread. If nothing else, you can have more confidence in your positions after being forced to defend them. And maybe he'll help you see your own bias if you're lucky.�
Sep 8, 2013
JRP3 How is that a rant? I simply pointed out that the study Petersen based his entire premise on uses a battery energy density which is at least half of what Tesla uses, I clearly explained how I got to my numbers, and I linked to other sources that came up with almost the exact same numbers as I did. You do realize the study did not model the Tesla Model S pack?
Regarding Petersen censoring people on SA, it's clear that he has a strong influence with the SA editors, and he did successfully get me banned from commenting on his articles, even though the SA editors admitted to me that they did not find anything objectionable with the contents of my posts. At least they didn't cave into him completely and ban me from the entire site, which is what Petersen wanted. I have over 4000 posts on SA and gone at it with a number of other authors, yet only Petersen went overboard with personal attacks and a campaign to have me banned. He's done the same with many others.
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I actually saw Petersen in the same light, initially. Pointing out his errors and being forced to defend my positions, and occasionally finding out I was mistaken, strengthened my conviction and increased my knowledge. What's shocking about Nicu is his complete turnaround from seeing through Petersen's misinformation campaign to now giving him far too much credibility.�
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