Aug 5, 2015
30seconds Lots of demand for all products, X website configurator goes live late this month, X will be really compelling, the dollar is strong, battery life is really good, GF starts production next year, and something about a "massive market" for power storage that basically will allow utilities worldwide to turn off inefficient power plants.
For this last point Elon and JB basically said they have no way of judging how unbelievably large this opportunity can be.�
Aug 6, 2015
AmpedRealtor Stock is down over 10% today... this is positively awful. Articles are telling Tesla to start acting like a real car company. I think I would have to agree on many levels. Tesla is getting a reality check today, but unfortunately so are we as shareholders. This entire mess could have been easily avoided. It seems to me that Elon Musk is a great visionary and can bring amazing products to market, but he plainly sucks when it comes to communications and managing his team. As far as I'm concerned, all of Tesla's communications problems over the years can be traced directly to Musk.
I agree with the media, unfortunately. Tesla needs to grow up and start acting like an adult. It looks like Tesla has learned from Apple in this last quarterly call by now providing a guidance range rather than a specific figure. Perhaps Tesla can learn from other, mature companies as well. Perhaps they can look to BMW and others who actually deliver products on time, and with the promised features, without stringing customers along at great expense to its brand promise.
Based on what I've read in these and other fora, Tesla has lost loyalty from some who have purchased multiple Tesla vehicles. While I'm hearing fewer complaints about build quality and hardware issues, I'm seeing more threads about customer service dissatisfaction. Tesla still, after three years, can't get its delivery system down to a point where customers can expect the car to be delivered by the date specified. Delivery Specialists still have very bad communication with owners. On some levels, absolutely nothing has changed since 2012.
I, personally, am tired of excusing Tesla's various behaviors. I excused them in 2012 and 2013, but felt that they should have gotten their act together by 2014. Here we are in 2015 and I'm not seeing much improvement. Tesla hired Ricardo Reyes as Communications Director, I wonder what his job entails? I see no improvement on that front, and in fact, I see much worse communication from the standpoint of what's being advertised on Tesla's web site. When communications are this bad, shouldn't the Communications Director be held accountable? What on earth does he do all day long?
Jerome Guillen... where is he, has anyone heard from him? Jerome was the one thread that made early ownership a good experience. He smoothed things over and made things right. I have not heard his name mentioned in months... I hope he isn't being pushed out of the company, I think that would be a big mistake. I think we had more satisfied owners when Jerome was Senior VP of Sales & Service - a job from which he was unceremoniously removed.
I worked for a startup back in 1997. Everything was rosy and wonderful, until it wasn't. Tesla has a great product, but it seems to be severely mishandling expectations and doesn't know how to focus. I wish Musk and his team would read this and other threads to understand what owners are expressing and why. Things could be SO much better if Tesla just kept its mouth shut on upcoming products until they are actually ready. Their silence on Model X is very refreshing. Maybe they are learning. But why do they need to learn these things that are obvious to all of us? Musk wasn't born yesterday.
What is it going to take for Tesla to get serious?�
Aug 6, 2015
jeffro01 Just inhale, and exhale.I have to tell myself that all of the time, as you can see from yesterday I didn't do a very good job at it...
Today's market reaction was predictable the moment I saw the delivery guidance adjusted down slightly. While you point out very legitimate issues that are serious in nature, I don't think those are to blame for todays blip.
Jeff�
Aug 6, 2015
AmpedRealtor Thanks for the reassurances. I guess I really need it right now. And I'm a big, big Tesla fan.�
Aug 6, 2015
peteyswift Why would I care what the stock is today? That's what stock does - go up and down. What I care about is that all their resources are going into putting out the best SUV on the market, with the best charging infrastructure/ecosystem. The rest will fall into place assuming Tesla don't get in their own way (agreed that that is a big assumption).
Also, tech and features in every model from every car maker will get old then refreshed/reinvented. This is the normal cycle of progress -- except with Tesla it is actually progress and invention. It's unfair to hate on Tesla because they can't (or have not announced) unilaterally build new/better features at the same time on both their models, while developing their future volume model. Maybe one day they will be able to do that easily (even this year, remains to be seen), but no they are not BMW or Mercedes in that way. Actually do those companies even do unilateral refreshes across their lines?�
Aug 6, 2015
jeffro01 Same here man, same here. Although my struggle is a bit different in that I can't seem to bring myself to plunking the cash down for one... Every time I get serious something comes up that makes me pause...
Inhale... Exhale...
Jeff�
Aug 6, 2015
eloder
You compared Tesla with Apple, but that particular point is ironic because Apple also does not give reliable dates for deliveries for its iPhone pre-orders or to the suppliers they work with. I've seen 2-3 month delays on certain iPhone models for both the 5c/5s launch and the 6/6+ launch that were either underestimated or completely miscommunication beforehand.
Apple is not a relatively new company. They've been around for decades. They still blunder with new products, software, communication, and orders but they're still considered among the greatest out there right now. Tesla has been around for a decade and had a non-negligible customer base for only three years. There was really nothing bad about that conference call except that Musk was being brutally honest, like he always does, and Wall Street doesn't like brutal honesty (short term). However it's good in the long term.
Going back to the Apple example, I think it's similar to how Apple announced its plans to go fully green and renewable for its US headquarters. Much of Wall Street balked at that notion, but Cook came back with that it's better in the long run, and if you don't like it don't invest in us. Their stock price obviously did not tank from that announcement.�
Aug 7, 2015
uselesslogin So I like to make wild predictions. Someday I'll be right and people will call me a genius. Shortly after the Q1 2016 earnings call Morgan Stanley will publish a note modeling Tesla as an energy storage provider, car maker, and autonomous taxi service provider and adding more Model 3 production into their model thanks to the reservation numbers from the reveal. The price target will be $500 and that will help propel the stock over $400. Tesla will raise $3.5 billion shortly after that note with the reason being that they need regional factories to respond to the massive Model 3 demand. You heard it here first.�
Aug 7, 2015
austinEV
I agree with most of this. Here is my version. The Q1 is a blowout, with crazy good earnings and profitability. They will have strategically paused spending on capital and store/supercharger/service center/tooling buildout. They will be operating at full tilt, including a lot of Model X. All the risk we are glum about now will be in the rear view mirror. The glowing reviews for X will be coming in. GF batteries will be produced or nearly so. Tesla Energy will be shipping real products, albeit in small numbers. With this tailwind, yes Morgan Stanley and the other analysts will publish their more bullish ideas. But it is years too early to worry about adding Uber-type valuation due to the self-driving thing. The bullish reports will inflate the TE aspect. Then fat capital raise.
(for the self-driving taxi thing to be viewed as a real biz opportunity, Fully-released, fully legal 100% autonomous driving has to be a real thing. The kind of 100% autonomous driving where you put your 12 year old in a car and send her across town. Because that is the kind of trust necessary for Taxi service).�
Aug 8, 2015
cynix Jerome is taking a leave of absence until the end of this year.�
Aug 8, 2015
Auzie Surprise surprise 10% down... Up and down, that is what TSLA does most of the time. If it doesn't go lower than this, I call that a success:smile:
These people writing articles telling Tesla what to do, if they are so smart what is stopping them from doing the things they are advising someone else to do? Anyone writing articles is not in a position to advise people running a business.
I tend to disagree that mess could have been avoided. Disruption is messy. People that create something out of nothing against all the odds, fighting off resistance, have no time to polish their communication, PR, etc. I agree that it is an improvement in communication not to give firm timelines for uncertain future events.
Regarding delivering products on time, BMW is a more mature business, at a different stage of its life. Tesla could maybe learn from BMW how to expand into China market.
I read some of these threads. There are some legitimate issues with the car or service that cause people to post about their dissatisfaction. Occasional customers dissatisfaction happens in all businesses, however not every business has a forum platform like TMC to broadcast their dissatisfaction. The amplification is disproportionately skewed towards negative comments as it is so boring to read how happy people are with their car, it is more interesting to follow dissatisfied customers comments.
Some posters seem to grab attention in disproportion to their issue. My impression is that the majority of customers are more than happy with their car and experience. Imo Tesla business would likely be better off without some of the people that post on TMC.
I, personally, have no intention or desire to excuse anyone including Tesla, that would be misplaced. In my view, when people comment on various issues, they state their understanding of the issue or opinion on the topic, that is not intended to excuse anyone.
Most of communication dissatisfaction happened before Ricardo came on board.
I find it misplaced and unfair to comment here on Ricardo's or anyone else's job or performance. It is unlikely that outsiders can have correct insight into employee's contribution to the business.
My view is that Tesla must keep selling sufficient number of cars to stay afloat. In that uphill battle, it is likely that choices and trade offs must be made that can not be avoided or explained to the public.
I would be very surprised if Tesla team were not serious, not sure that I understand correctly your last sentence.�
Aug 8, 2015
AmpedRealtor They are not acting like a serious car company. Look at the headlines. And those things matter to people who are not inclined to excuse Tesla's missteps. I understand all of Tesla's headwinds, but that doesn't change the impression they are giving to the outside world. I've lost count of how many owners have already said their enthusiasm for the company has declined. That is a big deal, because that's coming from die-hard fans. If confidence in this company and its products starts falling, so will sales. Tesla seems to get into cycles of good news, then cycles of bad news, so let's hope the cycle changes soon.
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The last email I received said he was returning on August 3rd. If what you say is true, then I think it's a foregone conclusion that he is leaving the company. This is very disheartening.�
Aug 8, 2015
Zaxxon He informed Tesla this week that he's on leave till December per the quarterly filing.�
Aug 8, 2015
AmpedRealtor I will miss Jerome, I really will. For many, he was the one person at Tesla who made things right. I think it's clear he's leaving. Musk removed him from the role of sales, saying Jerome would be in charge of customer satisfaction and delivery. Shortly after that announcement, Jerome went on indefinite leave.
I hope he takes me up on my dinner invitation. I would really love to have a chance to personally thank him for everything he's done for me.�
Aug 8, 2015
Lump Back in April I noticed Jerome was selling shares & connected it to change in roles at the company, everyone jumped on me when I said he couldn't have been happy with publicly being blamed for the China situation. the spin on TMC was it was a positive move & he would now focus only on service, looks like Jerome & Deepak are both leaving around the same time.
For those that accept the lowering of delivery guidance & the excuses given I would point you to 2014 2Q shareholder letter when they stated "Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks,Tesla�s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year." (meaning end of 2015) 50% less delivery's blamed on a second row seat & trim, really?
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/66331429x0x772849/0cdad2cf-0497-41a3-ad2a-788f57412777/Tesla%20Q2'14%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf�
Aug 8, 2015
MikeC I'm not sure why people are jumping to conclusions and then considering them facts. There are plenty of other reasons to go on leave, for example, an illness in the family. That could be why his role was changed because they knew he might have to go on leave for a while.�
Aug 8, 2015
SmartElectric @lump if Tesla is producing 1800 cars per week in late December, then they are producing at a rate of 100,000 if that was maintained for a year.
That is what the statement means...�
Aug 8, 2015
AmpedRealtor Jerome was unceremoniously removed from his position as Senior VP of Sales & Service after sales in China faltered, which wasn't really his fault. Elon blamed slow China sales on poor communications regarding charging options, and called his own people in China "morons" or a similar word. Unfortunately, Tesla's problems in China had little to do with charging confusion and much more to do with the internal economics and politics of the country, as well as domestic competition from other EVs. The sales of competing EVs actually increased while Tesla's dropped. Tesla's Model S is not perceived as a luxury mark in China, and at its luxury price point it lacks many of the amenities wealthy Chinese look for in a car. It was at that time that Musk said he would appoint a regional VP of Sales for each region that would report directly to him.
Musk didn't move Jerome to US Region Sales, which would have been the obvious move, but instead he seemed to marginalized Jerome into a customer satisfaction and delivery role. I can only speculate that Jerome may not have been happy with that. Musk went out of his way, at the time, to say that this was not a demotion. In my opinion, if you have to say it, then it really is. In hindsight, I think it was. Despite Musk saying Jerome would be taking over a customer sat role, that never happened and there appears to be nobody at the company currently tasked with such a role. It has been more than six months, I believe, since Elon made these announcements. Jerome used to be listed as part of the management team on Tesla's web site, but there is no mention of him now.
I would like nothing more than to be wrong, but I know what my gut is telling me and I know how companies like this operate. When Apple got rid of Scott Forstall, the VP of IOS development, they spun it to Forstall staying on in a "consultant" capacity to CEO Tim Cook for several months after his departure was announced. I've seen parallels at startup companies where I've worked in the past. This sounds eerily similar.
I would like nothing more than to be wrong. Believe me.�
Aug 8, 2015
Lump 1800 delivery rate in December considering the recent earnings report is optimistic IMO.�
Aug 8, 2015
RobStark 1800x50= 90,000
Tesla has never marketed itself as a luxury brand. It is a High Tech Silicon Valley Brand or a Green Brand. Recently, it has promoted itself as Green Performance Brand. Never luxury.
Same in Europe, USA or anywhere else. Tesla does not have Mercedes or Audi levels of luxury features. Although Tesla is continuously closing the gap.
BYD Qin, the top electrified vehicle in China, has taken a handful of otherwise Model S sales at best. All Chinese EVs and EREVs are mass market and/or low end vehicles.
I think Chinese New Money is going to love Falcon Wing Doors.
By units Tesla is #10 on the passenger car sales list for electrified vehicles.
By Yuan or Dollars, it is #1 in Market Share.
BYD Qin is the top seller by units in the category.
Through June Qin is 4015 units x $32k=$128,480,000
Through June Model S is 2140 units x $106k = $226,840,000�
Aug 8, 2015
MikeC I think all of us early Model S owners have an extremely high regard for Jerome and I agree that it would be a great loss for the company if he left. I just don't think we should treat speculation as fact and then become indignant over it. No one outside of Tesla knows the full details and there are plenty of other reasons for Jerome to take a leave.�
Aug 8, 2015
Lump On August 4, 2015, Jerome Guillen, our Vice President, Worldwide Service and Deliveries, notified Tesla that he will be taking a leave of absence until December 31, 2015.
I TEM 5. OTHER INFORMATION
Recently, our Board of Directors reviewed the job responsibilities of our senior management. On August 6, 2015, the Board determined that Mr. Guillen no longer has reporting requirements under Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Section 16). On the same date, the Board also determined that Doug Field, our Vice President, Engineering, has reporting requirements under Section 16.�
Aug 8, 2015
hpham007 damn.. one of the few people at tesla that was respected and had credibility. this is not looking good.�
Aug 8, 2015
Todd Burch I don't understand why everyone is panicking like the sky is falling. This last quarterly report really wasn't all that interesting. In fact, Tesla beat their own numbers. Things remain essentially unchanged--Elon just reeled expectations in a bit. Everything else is going as planned. Just relax, folks. The ship is still sailing full speed ahead.�
Aug 8, 2015
DaveT So correct me if I'm wrong but earlier this year Jerome Guillen was demoted (for lack of better word) from VP of Worldwide Sales and Service to VP of Worldwide Service and Deliveries. I took that the sales pace wasn't increasing fast enough and Elon felt someone else would do better in the sales role. But now Jerome takes a "leave of absence" until the end of December. That's a good 5 months. And now he's no longer required to report his stock as an officer. So, is he on the way out?�
Aug 8, 2015
uselesslogin Well he is probably selling all his stock at least. The thing it seems no one has considered is it may be that Jerome was not enjoying his job and/or life and that is the reason for the sudden changes. I could never imagine working for Elon and my own personality would stay far away from such an intense work environment. Maybe Jerome thought he could handle it and learned he is not made for that kind of work. So, obviously Tesla doesn't want him to just quit and sell all his shares so they demote him and then allow him to take a 'leave' and then next year he will return from leave and 'resign' but they are clearly hoping everyone will have forgotten by then and by then they probably won't have to disclose he left next year.�
Aug 8, 2015
anticitizen13.7 I'm thinking that it's possible he simply burnt out after working so much at the company. Very few people can sustain an Elon-like pace for very long. I have had jobs where I was working 60-70 hours/week, and it is exhausting when commute time is factored in.
I cannot imagine doing this for months or years. After 1 month I felt pretty terrible.�
Aug 8, 2015
Objective1 I'm with those who say that the market over-reacted to the change in projections, and under-reacted to Tesla beating the projected loss number and generally being on track for 100% year-on-year growth. Count me puzzled. But the market can be silly sometimes.�
Aug 8, 2015
eloder I felt that the conference call and associated lower in projected delivery does not bode well for the Model X delivery. I know they said the same thing about the Model S, but they were a very low resource company back then and they did indeed take many, many months to ramp.
I personally feel that the MX configurator delay was a very big sign of impending slips in the release date or heavy ramp, though I know very few people agreed with me on that.
That, and I feel that the macro conditions are going sour as well. I'm really hoping for an exit position for myself before September, and will try to buy back in afterwards for many of my shares. Q1 next year I'm definitely expecting amazing things TSLA wise, and possibly mid to late Q4 as well as positive MX press, reviews, and reservations will erase fears of a missed delivery guidance. I wouldn't be surprised to see the total number of MX to be under the 1-1.5k level in 2015.
Personally, my biggest bear fear in the short-term is the fact that MX delays can cause MS delays. I had no idea that aspects of the lines would be combined (figured it'd be one mixed line, and one MS line--not one interdependent line). Again it'll be immaterial after Q4, but I feel the stock may take a big beating as this year finishes up.�
Aug 8, 2015
TSLAopt Yes he's being pushed out in my opinion. If anyone else read the Elon Musk book they should know Elon is all business and will dismiss people if/when they can't perform to his high standards. While it is sad for us to see another member of senior mgmt go that we all grew to like, it is really best for TSLA and its future success. Many other firms have loyalty to senior mgmt who have grown up with the firm even if they are not performing strongly and I think that is a mistake. I am human and in Elon's shoes I would probably not be able to cut those people unless it was really bad performance very evident. However, Elon is probably a Martian, and as such can do extraordinarily things to succeed in building a business that us humans can't.�
Aug 8, 2015
aznt1217 If I remember correctly he is french. No he doesn't need to report his stock options as an officer because he's doing a post-sales role (can be considered as non-crucial to decision making of the core business). Yes, he did get demoted but I think that's because Elon & team were realizing they had to have local sales heads and restructured the sales organization. Why they waited so long... I have no idea.
It makes sense that somebody from the engineering team has to report now because it's probably mission critical (to say the least). Jerome is probably taking a leave of absence to clear his head and get back into the post service game. He was answering people's emails directly for crying out loud. Not sure if he is on the way out. I'd be surprised if he is. It also depends on his employment contract. If he's a "french employee" He can take up to a year off with his job spot held -- mandated by Govt. We'll find out soon.�
Aug 8, 2015
RobStark He lives and works in Northern California subject to American and Californian law.
French law has no standing here.
That he is here on a work visa or "green card" is hardly relevant.�
Aug 8, 2015
DaveT Yep, agreed. Also, trying to find a way home.�
Aug 9, 2015
hobbes But Tesla is selling to humans and Elon needs some people as a bridge between himself and the buyers (and also his human employees). I find it quite disturbing how many high profile people with a good reputation (from our point of view) have left Tesla. I do not think that this is a good sign.�
Aug 9, 2015
TSLAopt But this has been the case with Elon run companies for a long time... I'm sure tesla/Elon could have held onto those early founders who he pushed out a couple years ago, or george Blankenship, or that girl hacker from Apple. Part of the reason tesla will continue to succeed is that it's constantly churning employees to find the best people for key positions... Elon doesn't settle when it comes
to business and I'm glad he doesn't.�
Aug 9, 2015
dhanson865 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/09/us-teslamotors-cash-insight-idUSKCN0QE0DC20150809
I'm seeing this on multiple sites since it hit Reuters but my gut says it isn't true.
They may make a profit per car but are losing cash due to infrastructure rollout. I wouldn't consider it a fair assignment of value to say that loss is "per car" if it is really "per quarter" or "per year"�
Aug 9, 2015
DriverOne Starting up production of their second vehicle is risky. Possibly things could go wrong and introduce delays. Possibly all could go well. That's all Elon said. Sounds a perfectly reasonable way to set expectations for this quarter.
There are other items more worrisome in the call's transcript. For example, Model X being perhaps the most difficult car to produce in the world. That sounds terrifying to me. More complexity means more costs, quality issues, and repair difficulty (more expensive repairs), which leads to higher insurance premiums. EVs ought to be relatively simple, dropping all the ICE parts.�
Aug 9, 2015
aznt1217 Net income for the quarter. Not gross margin. Its a stupid headline�
Aug 9, 2015
Lessmog If one could assign a dollar value to it, how much would you say Reuters lose in credibility for each such article (or headline; I stopped clicking through)? All in it for the hits, as it were :wink:�
Aug 9, 2015
maoing Agreed. As I said many times in this forum (also disagreed by many folks in this forum). TM's growth rate between 2015 and model 3 production is demand constrained. So there is no surprise to see TM dialed down production rate expection to match demand.
�
Aug 10, 2015
Larken So what, it this a fact now just because you say it? As far as I know, Tesla is still production constrained.�
Aug 10, 2015
Auzie My take on 2015 delivery dial down from 55,000 to 50,000 - 55,000 cars delivered is:
1. There may be uncertainty around capability to deliver sufficient number of X in 2015. That uncertainty is mainly due to untested capabilities of various suppliers.
2. It might be difficult to grow S demand before year end as many potential customers might be holding on until they know more about X before committing to purchasing either S or X.
3. Elon's statement 'winning has to feel like winning' makes me think that he switched from over promising and under delivering mode to under promising and over delivering.
4. I doubt that the demand will be an issue in 2016. There may be some customer migration from S to X, but overall I expect X and S 70 to drive the demand growth in 2016, in sufficient numbers to exceed production capability.
5. There may be some other creative product surprises in 2016. I will be surprised if there are no surprises from Tesla :biggrin: My favorite surprise would be the advancement in battery technology. It could be said that the advancement in battery technology is almost an expectation, but lets call it a surprise for now.�
Aug 10, 2015
mrdoubleb You know maoing, we have been hearing this "demand constrained" ever since Tesla has been producing 1,000 cars a year, 10,000 cars a year and now when we are at 50,000 cars a year. It really is getting old.
I am not saying demand is unlimited and I certainly can`t blame those who had doubts early on. After all, this was an untested concept. But after so many quarters with record deliveries combined with virtually stagnating delivery times - a constant backlog of 2-3 months depending on model/your location-, really? Still the same old song?
I have no doubt Tesla has enough demand for 90-100k S & X combined per year. If by demand constrained you mean it will not grow after that until Model 3, you are right. They may move in the 80-100k range, but there is a natural limit to sedans and SUVs with a cool 100k ASP.�
Aug 10, 2015
aznt1217 Everyone realizes why guidance was lowered...right? It was in the CC very clearly explained. It's all due to how the X will ramp up. If there are hiccups (bottom end is 50k deliveries... If no hiccups 55k). Nothing to really debate about.�
Aug 10, 2015
AmpedRealtor Of course you're right. I'll hope for the best.
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If that's true, why is Elon trying to spike the Model S order pipeline with the referral program?�
Aug 10, 2015
RobStark Because capacity is going to double in the next few months.�
Aug 10, 2015
surfside Based on what I heard Elon say on the call, Model S production will not be doubling in the next few months. Elon basically said Tesla will exit 2015 with the factory set up for theoretical production capacity of 1,000 Model S per week and 1,000 Model X per week.
So Model S production capacity is not changing materially. I believe he is trying to spike the Model S pipeline because of the Osborne Effect of the Model X.�
Aug 10, 2015
AmpedRealtor ^^ this�
Aug 10, 2015
dhanson865 Tesla was production constrained until the last plant upgrade cycle. Now they are temporarily demand constrained. I fully expect them to be production constrained again once Model X configurator pops up.
I'm not sure if they'll ever get production above demand for more than a week or two at a time (at least until the model 3 order backlog clears out).�
Aug 10, 2015
austinEV Concerning demand vs production constrained. We cannot know for sure, but these discussions are all about reading tea leaves. It is obviously an investing advantage to figure things out before Mr. Market, which is really the reason we hang on on the investment forums.
I would argue that a few things are facts:
1) TM used to be and probably still is production constrained.
2) Elon will not suddenly tweet "well, today is the day. The lines crossed and we are demand constrained". We will learn about it after the fact.
3) The traditional defense of the demand theory is that TM is not advertising or working to increase demand. That is now no longer true. (The referral program is a demand generator)
So we may not like it, but it is not a ridiculous theory that we are at at least parity of demand/production. My strong feeling is that they are in balance now. I don't really think there is a strong Osborne effect in play since a relatively small number of people cross shop sedans and SUV's. A few people might be waiting for some gee-whiz features.�
Aug 11, 2015
Perfectlogic I think demand and capacity is about equal at this point too, the stable waiting list suggests this. Looking back since inception the demand for the S has increased steadily over the years at about the pace of production capacity increases (shown in the somewhat stable waiting list). It seems to me though that the increasing demand curve is slowing down a bit as the production has been somewhat stable for a while now without a wait list increase. Whether the X will pick up this demand slack so we can reach the 2k/week capacity I'm not so sure. I don't think the X differs that much in utility from the S as the S is already a very large car, so I doubt the new addition will double the demand right out the gate, that said I still think Tesla will meet the implied of around 88k sales next year due to the 20k X backlog. Personally I don't like the design of the X very much from what I've seen so far and think (might be bias since I'm not invested currently) that incremental demand might be softer than some expects. Might also come some sell the news effect into play as the X has been highly anticipated for a long time. I am hoping to get in around $180-200 late this year or early next.�
Aug 11, 2015
AmpedRealtor Jerome Guillen's absence makes headlines and stock drops another 2%:
Tesla VP of Service Takes Leave of Absence as Model X Nears - Bloomberg Business�
Aug 11, 2015
Drax7 cfo departure still puzzles me, and jeromes is also a mystery . certainly both are replaceable,
but does it send a signal about how the place is run.�
Aug 11, 2015
tentonine The CFO is retiring!�
Aug 11, 2015
Drax7 cfo is in early 50s, really doubt he is retiring.�
Aug 11, 2015
AmpedRealtor The fact that Elon announced Ahuja's retirement on stage during the shareholder meeting, and gave him a sendoff, tells me that Ahuja's departure was on good terms. The fact that he did not do the same for Jerome, who was part of the senior management team, tells me that situation is different. It could be personal or familial issues that are the reason for the leave of absence, but the sale of over 30% of his stock shares and change in SEC reporting responsibilities for his role might be more telling than anything else.�
Aug 11, 2015
Drax7 It might also reflect that working for elon is very tough. He is demanding
and relenting, and the risk/reward is not worth it for those that have options elsewhere.�
Aug 11, 2015
vgrinshpun What leads you to believe that he sold "over 30% of his stock shares" ?
I do not believe that this is accurate.�
Aug 11, 2015
dalalsid That is my plan too�
Aug 11, 2015
Drax7 If the cfo feels the company will be worth hundreds of billions one day, he does not retire usually.
Becoming cfo is probably more than he ever dreamed off, why give it up.
Anyhow i am not required to understand it, maybe he does not either.�
Aug 11, 2015
dalalsid This is true. Also even if he retires at 50 or whatever, I never understood why his investment in Tesla was so small. He generally instantly exercised and sold all his options. There are probably people here on this forum who own more shares of Tesla than the CFO?�
Aug 11, 2015
AmpedRealtor Someone mentioned the stock sale in another thread, so it must be true lol�
Aug 11, 2015
Bighorn It's reportable and it was so reported. Ballpark, he sold around 1500 shares and has retained~2700.�
Aug 11, 2015
vgrinshpun Let's not jump the gun here. Guillen exercised options and sold the corresponding stock, all according to the 10b5-1 plan approved months ago, on February 23 of 2015. Before the transaction he had 2,662 shares, then acquired 1500 shares as part of the pre-approved plan, and then sold them, also as part of the preapproved plan. At the end of the reporting period he also had 6,893 options. This transaction has nothing to do with his leave of absence.
Here is the note detailing the transaction:
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Aug 11, 2015
dalalsid That's even worse than the CFO. What is it with these execs not wanting to keep much Tesla stock?�
Aug 11, 2015
vgrinshpun Let's chill on this one. These options are part of their compensation package which is otherwise not competitive with the rest of the industry. We are complaining on this forum about the sloppiness of the financial journalists, while jumping to the (inaccurate) conclusions without reading the actual filing.�
Aug 11, 2015
dalalsid I get that their cash compensation is comparatively poor. But them holding such little stock in the company is equally bad, image wise. I don't know what % is good but how about keeping 10% of what you get intact?�
Aug 11, 2015
vgrinshpun Well, we are not privy to the details of the approved plan, do we? So we can't conclude that 1500 options exercised were 100%, 90%, or 50% of the currently vested parcel. Let's not make conclusion without knowing the facts.
Regarding the shares held, he is holding 2662 shares and 6893 options , for a total control of 9555 shares which is equivalent to more than $2.24M. I would not dismiss it as insignificant share.�
Aug 11, 2015
dalalsid Thanks for the info. How do you get info about options held??�
Aug 11, 2015
vgrinshpun From the SEC Form 4 filing - see the link in my original post on the subject uptrend.�
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