Jun 13, 2015
32no Hey guys, the end of Q2 is about half a month away, and delivery numbers will be reported by July 3. It's time to start discussions.
I have a feeling that they will beat the delivery (10-11k cars) and production (12.5k cars) guidance. I'll outline why:
There are 64 workdays in Q2. Tesla went into Q1 with about 1000 cars/week or 200 cars/day. Even without ramping up at all, this results in 12,800 cars produced. I have reason to believe that at least through June, Tesla will run at 1100 cars/week or 220 cars/day. There are 22 workdays in June, so this would increase the total to 13,240 cars produced.
For deliveries, this seems to be the case:
United States:
Between April and May, Hybrid Cars estimates say that Tesla delivered 4,200 cars in the US (1,900 in April and 2,400 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 5,500 cars in NA, or 5,100 cars in the US. I suspect Tesla will deliver at least 6,000 cars in the US in Q2, and possibly up to 6,500 cars.
Canada:
Tesla delivered 167 cars in Canada in April, and assuming a conservative average of 150/month for Canada results in 450 deliveries in Canada for Q2.
Europe:
Tesla delivered 1,882 cars in April and May in Europe (818 in April, 1064 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 3,543 cars in Europe. I would guess that Tesla will deliver at the very least around 3,000 cars in Europe in Q2, and possibly up to ~3,500 cars.
China:
Tesla delivered around 574 cars in China in April (thanks Gerasimental), and will probably deliver at least 1,000 throughout Q2, and possibly up to 1,500 cars.
Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Other:
Probably around 400 cars.
Total: 10,450-11,950 cars
I also subtracted around 400 cars that will be from the CPO program.
We will see on July 3.�
Jun 15, 2015
svp According to this Hong Kong may be more than many people expect. Ev sales claim ~50 cars delivered in May and 420 so far this year. That means ~80/ month in Hong Kong alone.�
Jun 20, 2015
bsd I'm charging at the Toronto Lawrence location and the lot has about 70 cars to be delivered.
�
Jun 20, 2015
32no How do you know those are all cars for delivery and that some or even most are CPO inventory?�
Jun 21, 2015
hobbes It would be fun to have a prediction competition for Q2 - not sure if this is the right thread here (Q2) or over at the prediction competition for the whole of 2015, but I�ll start anyway:
12,000 deliveries for Q2
Deadline: June 30, as on July 1-3 (on the 3rd Tesla announces the sales number) there will be a lot of new numbers out making the guessing much easier.�
Jun 21, 2015
bsd You're right: I don't know. And I've never been there after Q end to compare. The cars by the SC stalls had notes about being QC'd scrawled on their windshields and were 70D and 85D, but I can't generalize to the lot.�
Jun 21, 2015
ArtInCT New Model S deliveries sport a white plastic wrap on the front bumper and the hood and also on the rear bumper. Not long thereafter, as cars are readied for delivery prep, the wrap is removed. However, all newly delivered cars have the new car window sticker which shows all the details and options affixed on the passenger side and a smaller barcode label on the driver's side front window. CPO cars would not have the factory stickers nor the white wrap.�
Jun 21, 2015
Car4CivilizedAge My guess currently is 12,150 model S. I will update one more time before deadline
�
Jun 21, 2015
hobbes Decided to set up a new thread for this anyway, because I thought it would be nice to have a poll for this, too:
Q2 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)�
Jun 22, 2015
schonelucht While it's fun to speculate on the numbers, personally, that is not what I am looking for in the quarterly report this time. By the time Tesla reports, the X configurator should be open for the public, there should be a hard date on the first delivery and I would even expect an update from Elon during the CC on how many pre-orders confirmed (hoping for a question like that to come up). Any of those things don't happen and I don't see an easy path anymore to 55k deliveries this year.�
Jun 22, 2015
hobbes We will have the delivery numbers announced on July 3 way ahead of the earnings report, so we can separate the fun part from the serious bigger picture, on which I agree with you. It�s all about the X start and ramp and maybe also storage pre-orders.�
Jun 22, 2015
Johann Koeber Is July 3 a holiday in the US? Will we see the numbers on the third of July or on the monday after that?�
Jun 22, 2015
uselesslogin July 3rd is a holiday but so was April 3rd. Although it is less likely Tesla is going to be open July 3rd. Still, since they said within 3 days of the end of the quarter I would expect the numbers on the 2nd or 3rd.�
Jun 22, 2015
RiverBrick There will be a record quarter in Canada. The P85D and 85D continue to be popular and now 70Ds are popping up all over the place.
What's new since Q2 2014
----------------------------------
1) The return of the $5,000 rebate in BC.
2) The D (already mentioned, but worth repeating since AWD is coveted in Canada.)
3) Huge center in Montreal (before there was just a hole-in-the-wall service center with a few desks shoved into a cramped space for sales.)
4) Pop-up stores (Ottawa, Quebec City, and probably other locations I don't know about.)
5) Supercharger presence. (At this time last there was not a single open site in Canada and only one, Squamish, under construction. Now there are 14).
For sales growth in countries where TM has had a presence for 1.5 years or more, Canada is probably number one at this time.�
Jul 2, 2015
Benz Q2 2015: 11,507
Total H1 2015:
10,045 + 11,507 = 21,552
In six months almost as many Tesla Model S deliveries as in full year 2013.
That's significant growth.�
Jul 2, 2015
hockeythug I'll cross post:
From the Q4 letter, around 55k delivers for 2015, 40% in the in the first half of the year. First half actual deliveries were 21,552 so we are just 448 off through the first half of the year. I think we are good depending how the 4Q15 push goes.�
Jul 2, 2015
Grendal For three years Tesla has fallen short of their yearly totals. I'm pretty sure they lowballed this years number just to make sure they kill it. I think it will all depend on how fast the Model X ramp occurs. Elon said it will be fast so it shouldn't be an issue.�
Jul 2, 2015
uselesslogin I'm pretty sure they are 1 for 3 - they beat annual guidance in 2013.�
Jul 2, 2015
Benz Q3 2015: 14,000 (S)?
Q4 2015: 20,000 (S+X)?
Would that be their plan?�
Jul 6, 2015
chickensevil Seems about right. by the end of the year they should be pushing close to 2k a week which would be around 25,000 produced if running full speed throughout the entire quarter. If the new BIW line is coming up in Q3 that should give them enough time to get the X rolling on it, transition over the S and be ready to go full speed in Q4. And since the current BIW will stay active throughout the transition (I think it will be decommissioned after everything is rolling, but they said it would certainly be running while the other is brought online as opposed to what we saw with the new final assembly line) that line is running roughly what? 12k a quarter? So that means they only need to pull out 2k on the new line in Q3 to hit that 14k, and then fix any and all kinks and rolling full steam ahead for Q4. And if they need to can keep that old BIW line up until the end of the year to give full overlap.
The only criticism would be that we would expect at least a couple hundred Model X in Q3. Maybe that will be around 2,000??? That would be very nice�
Jul 6, 2015
RiverBrick Seems optimistic. iirc, in April TM said late Q3 for the X, but at the latest shareholder's meeting in June it was "3-4" months, which I take to mean October (Q4) or later.�
Jul 6, 2015
Robert.Boston I disagree re timing of first delivery. It may be on Sept.30, but I'm highly confident that Elon will strive to get the first 10 Xs delivered in Q3, much as the original Ss came right at the end of Q2'12. OTOH, I will be surprised if as many as 2,000 Xs are delivered in 2015. I know that Elon said that they will ramp faster than the S, but a slower roll-out is sensible so that any issues with the first cars on the road can be addressed prior to production of large numbers.�
Jul 6, 2015
RobStark Tesla PR clarified Elon's comments and reiterated September. Not as late as first week in October.�
Jul 8, 2015
chickensevil Given how quickly they want to hit 2000 a week, I would have to disagree. Unless that 2000 a week is off the table and I haven't heard anything from the company to say otherwise. Unless you really see demand right now for the S at nearly 100k a year? 70-80 possibly, for 2016, but even that might be too optimistic at this point. I just want to clear 1 more car a year than the S class globally to be happy.
anyway, point being you won't get a ton of useful information on production problems in the first batch before you need to be at that large volume level. And without giving a specific number the impression given is that the ramp on the X would be the same transition in around 2-3 months what it took them 7-8 months to accomplish on the S. They know how to make their own car now there is only really the doors to be wholly new and potentially problematic. Everything else should be largely from the same supplier/build process if not actually the same exact part.
what were the large common issues with the S? 12 volt bat (they should be using the exact same electrical system in the X they are currently using), fit and finish (referring to the gaps in body panels and such, this was an issue of them largely getting the body shop working better, and the new body shop is the 2.0 version so I don't see major issue there), various motor issues... Which are still not fully resolved (it's going to be the same AWD platform in the X as stated by Elon. Not similar... The same.) there might be slightly different suspension, so maybe we go through tire wear issues again, but that's going to take 10k miles on a car to really have someone notice the issue which is going to take longer than a couple months... What else am I missing? What else is wholly new on the X to be a problem? Seats and doors... Even if there is new electronics in the car there haven't been large issues with that department on the S, so why would you expect it on the X. So for those reasons, I don't see a lot of risk in the execution.�
Jul 8, 2015
schonelucht Seats were a big problem with a P85D roll out and caused Tesla to miss guidance last year. Doors are so radically different from what's been done before that previous performance is no guarantee for the future. Anyway, Tesla has no choice : the X is late by several years, the window for a slow roll out closed long ago.�
Jul 9, 2015
RobStark Producing the Next Generation seats in volume was a problem with Recaro.
There was no quality issue.
I suppose there could be an issue with Recaro bumping up production volume again.�
Jul 9, 2015
Gwgan I thought Futuris is making the seats for MX, and that they have a factory near Fremont now, too.
Tesla Model X - Futuris wins next-gen Tesla Model X seat contract | GoAuto
http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2014/09/futuris-opens-manufacturing-facility-in-north-america
They made the next gen rear bench (photo on their web site) which is no longer available, if that means anything.
Would TM really give are Recaro a second chance?�
Jul 9, 2015
RobStark I am pretty confident Tesla will offer Recaro front captain chairs for the Model X.
There are a large numbers of Model S owners that love the Recaros and hate the Futuris seats.
I think a lot of potential Model X owners are going to have a strong preference for the Recaros.
And they do make the Next Generation front seats for the Model S.�
Jul 9, 2015
chickensevil I am acknowledging that there is certainly execution risk on these two specific parts of the car, but overall these are peanuts compared to the larger issues with the Model S rollout which impacted people in such a way that they couldn't even drive their cars anymore.
If the seats get messed up (I am specifically referring to the second row seats here which are anticipated to spin outboard) they still work as seats (or should) and you can still drive the car unless you are magically driving from the second row? So yeah, you will have to eat the cost of going back and fixing these seats if they break... but based on how little it dampened people's willingness to continue to sing the praises of Tesla when their actual car broke down on the side of the road due to battery and motor issues... this is not likely to be a show stopper on demand.
If the door gets messed up (I'm mostly thinking it won't seal correctly and starts leaking any other issue shouldn't be large numbers if any at all, like the doors are perma-stuck open, or they won't latch... these things are likely not to happen at all... most likely it just won't latch correctly causing it to leak... again, assuming we have a problem, which we might not) then you again, can still drive the car. The front doors are traditional doors. you can leave the broken door/doors alone and at least *use* the vehicle.
So no, I don't see these being big enough execution risks that would cause them to be cautious of a quick ramp. They will just eat the warranty costs and fix the problem on future X's and move on as they have shown the ability to do with the S.�
Jul 13, 2015
schonelucht As usual, the Tesla risk is not on the demand side (there is plenty of that) but on the supply side. If they have an issue with the roll-out, that will mean a guaranteed miss on delivery numbers this year in a repeat from last year. Overall it won't matter but short term, the stock will take a hit and possibly even remain with negative sentiment for a few months like they had this year.
We will have to agree to disagree here. Maybe it's because we see rain on a very frequent basis where I live, but a leaking car is simply not a usable car. Also, Tesla certainly will want to avoid any hint of media reports that due to latching issues the doors may open while the car is travelling. Even if those stories are without merit, like with the fire scare, it will impact perception and stock price.�
Jul 13, 2015
ev-enthusiast I have to admit that I still do not get the panic about the falcon wing doors.
To my opinion they are just not that much more complex than some functionality already in place in an ordinary vehicle.
- Yes, structural issues arise for the body of the car (roof), but hey, not as much as for a convertible, or am I wrong?!
- And yes, the doors open up and do not swing open, but hey, doesn't a traditional trunk lid open up?!
Biggest issues during development of a new vehicle generation normally arise during first integration and testing of the components from different suppliers.
After that is successfully accomplished, I can imagine a good ramp up of production of Model X.�
Jul 13, 2015
chickensevil I would agree that there isn't likely to be a real risk to demand, I was just acknowledging that way off on the off chance there is a major issue with the Model X it would be limited very likely to one of the two scenarios mentioned and essentially neither of them are likely to be so dramatic as to totally scare people away from the car. If, as you say, there is an issue with the supply, at most they make a couple hundred extra model X that they shouldn't have made and need to sit on them until they get the seats they need, divert the rest to the Model S, once the supply issue is resolved go back to finishing the Model X orders and resume normal operations. We saw this with the D units and the next gen seats. They shelved the P85D's until they got the issue resolved but they didn't shut down the entire factory over the issue. The line is designed specifically with flexibility in mind. So switch full speed back to the S and therefore the total numbers would be down by a small amount... but nothing too dramatic. And if it is caught at the beginning (like say, early Q4) they will likely get those seats in in time to make the deliveries anyway so all will be fine. The big reason for the 1200 cars stuck in the pipe at the end of Q4 was more likely to do with the shipping issues/strike vice the seatgate issue. Unless we have another port strike, this is a non-issue.
And about rain, I would point out that presently 50% of the sales are going to NA, and 50% of those are going to CA (where it almost never rains... hence why they are in a like 4 year drought right now). Most of the early Model X are likely to be primarily delivered in CA. Therefore any door related issues are statistically less likely to cause the car to become undrivable. (This is if we even have a door issue... which I am not convinced that the doors are going to be a problem at all. I am simply trying my best to point out what I see as the largest risk... which isn't really something to be worried about at this point). But yes, generally you can't drive a leaky car in the rain as that can be problematic. So England and whereever else it tends to rain almost all the time this would be a bigger issue. But I don't see a large volume of cars going over there at first. So the risk of doing a slow rollout vice the risk of there being major problems? I would lean toward weighing heavily on a fast roll out.�
Jul 22, 2015
Benz Tesla Announces Release Date for Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 07/22/15 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2015, after market close on Wednesday, August 5, 2015. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q2 2015 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
What: Tesla Q2 2015 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, August 5, 2015
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: http://ir.teslamotors.com
Webcast: http://ir.teslamotors.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website.
For additional information, please visit ir.teslamotors.com.
Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.�
Jul 22, 2015
schonelucht Has anyone already done the calculation on how much revenue we expect? I suppose it's not as straightforward as it used to be with a new ASP due to model 70 being a larger part of the mix?�
Jul 22, 2015
anticitizen13.7 People will assume that something different and/or new will have problems.
I'm not worried about the doors. I'm far more concerned with the production timeline and ramp up speed. Mass production is difficult, and there's always the chance for any number of things to go wrong. On the plus side, Elon wrote in his latest blog post on the Tesla website (July 17, 2015) that Model X is on track for delivery in 2 months. That would put Founders Series vehicles on the road by mid to late September. Hopefully Tesla will be able to deliver.
As far as the conference call and shareholder letter, I'll be looking for specific info on the Model X schedule. This will impact Tesla's ability to meet guidance of 55k vehicles delivered in 2015. If the Model X website studio isn't up by the time of the earnings release, I'll be looking for info on that as well.�
Jul 23, 2015
Blvr888 There should be two positive effects on the earnings coming from the start of P85D/85D deliveries (with presumably higher margins) outside of the US and after price increases in Euro at the end of last years with cars delivered in 2Q.�
Jul 23, 2015
hobbes From Short-Term thread:
Don�t know what the original source is though.�
Jul 23, 2015
Bgarret Someone likely took Q1 earnings of $1.1 Billion, added $150 million (1500 more Model S at $100k ASP) and shaved off a bit to be conservative. Likely $1.2 -1.25 Billion in adjusted Revenue for Q2.�
Jul 24, 2015
BoerumHill I presume one of the Zacks or their lackeys came up with the estimate. It's what they do.
ETA:
Nope!
Click through the Zachs writeup and you'll see that its from an earlier report.
�
Jul 25, 2015
neroden Me neither. They seem like the pop-out door handles. Which did have some problems, but seem to have paid off massively in marketing value.
- - - Updated - - -
I'm not very worried about this, myself. The production timeline hasn't slipped for quite a while, which is a very good sign. The enormous number of shared design features with the Model S makes this a much simpler project than the Model S. (They also don't have to set up a brand new factory from scratch.)
I'm also not worried about the Gigafactory given that it appears to be ahead of schedule. The Supercharger deployment seems to have finally gotten up to speed (apparently because Tesla hired a single national subcontractor to permit & build all of 'em, and they're good).
I remain worried about the Model 3 production schedule, but I am most worried about the Service Center deployment, which seems to be way behind schedule -- and frankly rather disorganized, given that several service centers have had to close and relocate. And I'm worried that at some point Tesla will saturate the Model S market. And I'm worried that the communication problems and internal disorganization is not getting resolved. So there's my main worries list as an investor.
Given that I'm a pessimist, if I'm not worried about Model X delivery schedule, you probably sohudln't be either.�
Jul 27, 2015
ludicrousspeed Guidance is by far the most important part of the entire Earnings Report event. Vehicle deliveries are the most important factor for the company right now because this is a growth investment and investors know Tesla will not turn a profit this quarter. Since everybody already knows what Tesla delivered in Q2 (11.5K Model S), everybody should be keeping their eyes on whether Model X is still on schedule and if 55K is still the goal for this year. I will also be interested in seeing how fast margins and R&D spending grow but don't think earnings, or losses in this case, are very important.�
Aug 4, 2015
aznt1217 In addition to guidance. I've been keeping an eye on three KPI's for Tesla and tying them with company events. I use these to monitor company health and I'm pretty sure many on this forum do also.
Gross Margin
SG&A
R&D
I expect to see a steady climb in SG&A, a significant step up in R&D due to Tesla Energy, Gross Margin staying relatively flat.
I also expect a significant amount of cash burn this quarter. Shouldn't be a surprise with all the things going on (GF, Model X, acquisitions, etc.)�
Aug 4, 2015
FluxCap
Great chart, thanks for sharing it!�
Aug 4, 2015
Hogfighter I'm surprised at how little chatter there has been regarding the stationary storage side. If they announce how many orders they have, it could be quite a positive catalyst.�
Aug 4, 2015
ludicrousspeed The reason people are overlooking the stationary storage and probably will continue to do so, even if orders are sky high, is because they don't require any down payment. Skeptical analysts point to the fact that Tesla may not go through with a good portion of the $850M in orders in the first week. I persoanally disagree with those analysts because I think once Tesla begins to sell their storage products in higher volume in 2016 with the help of the gigafactory, the company will exceed general expectations. There is no reason to think that demand will be weak or that the products themselves aren't a major innovation, even without pre orders. Also many people point to Tesla's storage not being 100% ready for households yet, but Musk has already come out and said that around 85-90% of initial storage will go towards businesses, which could greatly benefit from the batteries, even in the short term.�
Aug 4, 2015
aznt1217 Not even about that downpayment part. You are correct though the vast majority of initial orders will go to businesses via Powerpack-- because of the economics and scale that it benefits. Tesla would also probably prefer this so they can fine tune their software with something using significantly more energy.
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Thanks! I just wanted to post this up before people started freaking out about the headlines that will come out at the end of day tomorrow. Something along the lines of Tesla has record quarter but still loses money, etc.
These are the KPI's that matter for a company in the growth stage (assuming there is product focus). After product quality/experience/focus which is all well and good I look for the execution... for me these are the key measures that reflect how well execution is.�
Aug 4, 2015
Jonathan Hewitt I think there is a chance for this to help if it's announcement of more contracts signed by businesses/utilities. Contracts are firm if written correctly and analysts can model those things. I don't think Powerwall can do anything else for now until it starts shipping at the earliest, IMO.�
Aug 4, 2015
tinm My guesses:
� not a lot of insight into stationary storage; they'll say it isn't rolled out yet, so no revenue. Maybe they'll provide projections but...
� capex will be higher than market (pretend) expectations, some analysts will react negatively; stock will reflect
� revs will be about what's expected
� like others have said, guidance for Q3, Q4 is all. I suspect they'll be exactly 55K no change.�
Aug 5, 2015
vigge50 The conference call will be at 02:30 PM PT but how long before that do the letter use to come up one the site? Is it an half an hour or one hour before the call?�
Aug 5, 2015
anticitizen13.7 Tesla usually posts the shareholder letter a few minutes after market close (4PM Eastern U.S.).�
Aug 5, 2015
timf Sometimes it isn't posted until after 5PM Eastern. In any case, it's always sometime between the market closing and the call beginning.�
Aug 5, 2015
bonnie I think they'll very likely announce a few installations and that the program has begun rolling out.�
Aug 5, 2015
mspisars Bonnie, which Powerwall did you get? How's it working out so far?
�
Aug 5, 2015
ludicrousspeed I think the street is expecting guidance of 13K vehicles for Q3, still 55k vehicles for 2015, and first model X deliveries by late September. In my opinion, the stock price has a much higher downside reaction potential than upside in the after hours following ER if Tesla guides below or above those numbers. I think releasing the Model X design studio in the next week or so and announcing the roll out of stationary storage may surprise investors. Of course, I'm not expecting anything today that will have any long-term impact on Tesla. What's everybody's general expectations for ER and the CC?�
Aug 5, 2015
ggr Personally, I'm expecting gangbusters results. There's something about the quiet confidence they've been projecting recently, and I did a factory tour about 6 weeks ago and had my socks blown off. I'm solidly long. We'll see.�
Aug 5, 2015
FluxCap Agree with most here, but I'll sum up my thoughts thusly:
In the immediate-term, I think from this letter and call, we will have the battle of positives and negatives for the attention of the market. Which items dominate share price movements near-term is anyone's guess.
As Bonnie said, I can foresee solid revenue projections from Tesla Energy's first customers making analysts drool, positive comments about margins on new Model S versions, maintaining guidance, and a Model X detail or two that gets people excited.
I can also see possible Model X release delays, possible deliveries misses, analyst concerns about demand stemming from the unexpected Model S incentive program announcment, and concerns/questions about ongoing cashflow projections, especially given Deepak's imminent departure.
I just have no clue here, but I'm not positioned aggressively going into this one, this time.�
Aug 5, 2015
Trev Page I can't help thinking the recent referral program is timed for a push to keep the new production line saturated given the increased capacity of 2000 units a week. Doing that could easily meet the remainder of guidance for the year.�
Aug 5, 2015
andrewket I'm curious about power wall sales as well. I submitted my request the day of the announcement and still haven't received an email or phone call. Stating they received "x orders" is misleading if tesla is counting people like me.�
Aug 5, 2015
bonnie Hah. If I had one (or three) here, I wouldn't have posted and ruined a surprise. Purely my belief based on 'nothing I have'.�
Aug 5, 2015
Foghat My belief is the referral program is about cost savings on salespeople, not really about any concern with demand. Let's face it, 80% of owners are better salespeople then what are at tesla stores right now. Most of sales are generated by referrals already. Why not pay less for prosumer then paying a heck of a lot more for expanding the sales teams globally? $1000 per sale is a no brainier.
In in other news, has anyone seen the supposed leaked photo of the Model 3 mock up? To me, it looks like a model s-esk Austin Martin which would be really striking design. Man, they are going to sell like hot cakes on purely looks alone, if true. Wonder if Elon might give a little surprise tidbit on the model 3 front today... Many "leaks" are planted to drum up interest into a lead up to an announcement...�
Aug 5, 2015
hobbes Haven�t seen it - do you have a link? Thanks.�
Aug 5, 2015
Foghat
They have to to be already in production or very near initial production on orders if Solarcity has stated they will start powerwall installs in October, start of Q4. My impression is tesla already has "pre-sold" the initial powerwall production target to Solarcity select "new pv customers" in California. I think we should hear Elon talk about how production ramp is going on powerwall&powerpack, and if positive, think he might mention 2016 ramp up magnitude as well.
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This could be Teslas Model 3 double-sided mockup - SlashGear
there is a cover over it, but if you look closely you can see a little bit of a homage to that iconic Austin Martin grill.�
Aug 5, 2015
MartinAustin I was looking at the commodity price graphs for the metals that Tesla uses in its production... cobalt and lithium have remained more or less the same over the last year, but copper, steel, aluminium and nickel have all been in a noticeable, significant decline:
1 Year Nickel Prices and Nickel Price Charts - InvestmentMine
1 Year Copper Prices and Copper Price Charts - InvestmentMine
1 Year Aluminum Prices and Aluminum Price Charts - InvestmentMine
I concede that my research isn't that comprehensive or scientific, and Panasonic's costs play a factor in how much Tesla pays for 18650's.
But... these cost declines cannot be in Tesla's projections. The markets for metals could go anywhere... down or up. Does anyone agree that the price declines must surely help TM's gross margin?�
Aug 5, 2015
wallet.dat Hopefully just an experimental mock up. Elon himself said that it would not be a weirdmobile (2nd covered car from the far right). The 1st covered from the far right looks like it has a sleek low profile though, worthy of being a BMW 3-series competitor�
Aug 5, 2015
McMuggets Here's a live blog of the earnings right now:
Live blog: Tesla to report second-quarter results - The Tell - MarketWatch�
Aug 5, 2015
InsaneDriver http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/522299673x0x843991/DCDCCFDA-0709-405B-931A-B2F48A224CE8/Tesla_Q2_2015_Shareholder_Letter.pdf�
Aug 5, 2015
wallet.dat Yahoo Finance says they reported only a $0.48 loss vs $0.59 expected. Really amateur headline though, "Tesla's outlook is a major disappointment and now the stock is tanking". Seriously? That's something I'd expect to read in some AOL chat room.
Tesla's outlook is a major disappointment and now the stock is tanking - Yahoo Finance�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark The Model S is a basic Aston Martin silhouette with Tesla's signature nose cone.
I wonder what Aston Martin CEO and EV enthusiast Andy Palmer thinks of Tesla using an Aston Martin silhouette plus Aston Martin front fascia for the Model 3?
BTW What is this Austin Martin you speak of ?�
Aug 5, 2015
tinm Yahoo Finance is Finance for Yahoos, I've concluded. I've used it for 20 yrs but am moving away. Stock quotes now delayed again, headlines laughable, sources for headlines increasingly unreliable.�
Aug 5, 2015
jeffro01 Someone shut this first guy up... Holy crap....
Jeff
EDIT: Talking about the call itself and the first person asking questions.�
Aug 5, 2015
tinm I was about to post an expression of high dudgeon but your EDIT freed me from having to do so�
Aug 5, 2015
strangethingintheland I think they took this person first because he is the replacement for the previous Bank of America analyst, who was so negative on Tesla that they relieved him of his TSLA duties.�
Aug 5, 2015
tinm Trip Chowdry... I don't think all his elevators go to the top floor.�
Aug 5, 2015
jeffro01 Holy crap, someone shut this guy up now as well...
SOMEONE ask about when the Design Studio for the X is going live...
Jeff�
Aug 5, 2015
MsElectric His elevators are on Autopilot�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark "Is selling to ride sharing services a real business opportunity or will you just eliminate the middle man and sell autonomous electric mobility directly to customers."
Elon " That is an insightful question. It is best I don't answer that question."�
Aug 5, 2015
jeffro01 Yeah that was interesting...
Jeff�
Aug 5, 2015
BoerumHill He's a legend. Probably got more APPL calls wrong than any analyst in history.�
Aug 5, 2015
kf93 They have to be years away from the concept of a self driving taxi with no driver. I don't think the public is ready for that for a while. Autopilot is driver assistance not driver replacement.�
Aug 5, 2015
jake- It's been nearly a year since they announced autopilot, and yet no one seems to understand that autopilot =/= autonomous driving? I swear, we had several questions at the shareholder meeting about it, and now this GS guy comes along asking this.
*sigh*�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark You start in Silicon Valley. Maybe as early as 2020. Will need Sacramento to pass pertinent legislation.
SV is ready yesterday. They you move out from there once customers in technologically progressive areas see the safety record in SV.
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Elon implied guidance for next year 80k-90k.
Next year 100k theoretical capacity. Real world production 1600-1800 vehicles per week.�
Aug 5, 2015
dhanson865 Introduction | Tesla Motors has the link for the live audio but I missed it, anyone have a replay address?
Tesla Motors, Inc. Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results QA Conference Call | Tesla Motors�
Aug 5, 2015
Cosmacelf Ugh - once again, SOMEONE PLEASE ASK WHEN WILL MODEL X CONFIGURATION BEGIN???�
Aug 5, 2015
Todd Burch Everyone is reading *way* too much into Elon's decision to abstain from answering the self-driving car service question. I believe his intent was not to comment because he wanted to leave options open, but very highly doubt they're actually considering this. I really doubt they're going to take their eyes off the ball and try to compete with Uber. It doesn't at all keep with their mission as a company.�
Aug 5, 2015
Johan Well, if low number deliveries are going to start in Q3 (September) I would expect configuration to start during August?�
Aug 5, 2015
spacexfan Please someone ask!!! xD
All stupid questions on there. -_-�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark Not compete. Dominate Uber.
It absolutely keeps with the mission of Tesla.
Ride sharing is more efficient and furthers the goal of transitioning the world to sustainable transportation than everyone having their own private vehicle and leaving it idle for 22 hrs per day.
Some will want their own private vehicle and even customize it. Some in densely populated areas will prefer ride sharing.�
Aug 5, 2015
heltok 500000 EV orders to Uber which would be driving a lot of electrical miles for a lot of customers is something that would make a lot of sense for Elon and Tesla. I assume he didn't comment because you generally don't comment on potential deals with other companies.�
Aug 5, 2015
Zaxxon Let's let them release the comparatively simple autopilot software before anyone gets too worked up over self-driving Uber competition.�
Aug 5, 2015
AmpedRealtor Stock is down 6% in aftermarket, isn't this awful?
First, why does Musk set such optimistic expectations in the first place, only to dial them down later? Shouldn't Tesla take a more conservative approach to guidance and then surprise?
Second, it makes no sense that ramping up Model X will come at a sacrifice of 800 Model S deliveries per week. I think that is Musk-speak for "we can't update the Model S to keep par with Model X features, so Model S sales will slow down". That sounds closer to reality to me, explains the new referral program as a way to keep Model S sales afloat, and the dip in S sales is something that I've been fearing for some time. If Model S does not keep pace with Model X design and features on day one, Model S sales will fall off a cliff. I certainly wouldn't buy one knowing that the Model X has superior technology and newer design compared to S, and that a Model S redesign is probably around the bend. Tesla is stretched too thinly.
I am worried for Tesla based on anecdotal observations. Reports of falling service standards are on the rise. Software development is lagging woefully behind. Jerome Guillen, who has served to calm a lot of discontent and smooth over ruffled feathers, is nowhere to be found. Now Tesla is lowering delivery guidance for the year - guidance which many of us originally felt would be nearly impossible for Tesla to hit.
Are Musk and his team cracking?
I thought, as we get closer to Model 3, that Tesla would be optimizing its organization and focusing all of its ducks in a row to make possible a mass market vehicle. Based on what I heard today, and on recent history, it doesn't seem like Tesla is on that road. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way, but something doesn't feel right to me.
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Based upon Tesla's timelines, this is at least 20 years away.�
Aug 5, 2015
jeffro01 X config live before the end of August... Sort of like before the end of July...
Come on Musk...
Jeff�
Aug 5, 2015
Zaxxon I don't know that I'd say 20, but that's my point. It's fantasyland for the medium term.�
Aug 5, 2015
RobStark That was not the question.
The question was if selling to ride sharing companies is a real business opportunity or would Tesla prefer to cut out the middle man and sell the service directly to retail customers.
There are more ride sharing services than just Uber.�
Aug 5, 2015
Bighorn Finally Andrea shows�
Aug 5, 2015
jeffro01 This... I don't think I'm even remotely interested in buying a Model S now. I "might" look at an Model X now but Elon all but said on this call that the Model X is going to be vastly superior. What does that mean? I have no idea but I'm not plunking down a $2500 non refundable deposit on a Model S. Listening to this call today, Tesla has potentially lost me as a customer for the foreseeable future. I'm SOOOO glad I rescheduled my appointment with my gallery to put the deposit down to this Saturday which I will now cancel all together.
Tesla is in trouble. I agree, the Model S is going to tank in regards to orders. Anyone who is buying one right now is gonna be in for a very rude awakening I think...
Jeff
EDIT: While I don't believe in rewriting what I said, thus I won't erase it, I did let my frustration get the better of me for a moment and I don't genuinely feel that way about Tesla but I won't erase what I wrote either.
Jeff�
Aug 5, 2015
dsm363 It says to me a Model S update can't be too far behind.
I don't see how ordering a Model S now would be such a horrible thing. If you like the car the way it is now and want to drive one order it. The Model S update, if there is one soon, could be a year away. I don't think Model S sales will tank. Not everyone follows forums as closely as we do. They hear good things about the car and will order one anyway.�
Aug 5, 2015
AmpedRealtor Except this is not how people shop cars, at least those who are not in the "cult of Tesla" and who are not early adopters.
If you are thinking of buying a Model S and go to the Tesla web site, you will see two cars at approximately the same price points. One is brand spanking new, with obviously newer design, technology, and vastly superior interior amenities and design (based on Musk's own words). Very few consumers will go for the outdated vehicle unless it is steeply discounted. Replace Model S with "iPhone 5" and Model X with "iPhone 6" in your statements and see if it still makes sense. It doesn't to me.
If a Model S redesign - to keep pace with Model X - is a year away, as you suggest, then Tesla is in BIG BIG trouble and so is our stock investment.�
Aug 5, 2015
rxlawdude With homage to Airplane! -- Looks like I picked the wrong month to buy a Model S70D. Looks like I picked the wrong month to invest in TSLA.
But seriously, look at aftermarket. It was down substantially (10%) but rebounded. That means there is still a lot of support against downward pressure.
Tomorrow's market will be interesting. But I still believe it's a mistake to bet against Musk, his tendency to over-promise notwithstanding.�
Aug 5, 2015
pmadflyer Everyone calm down. Did you miss the bit in the letter about the Models S body center redesign and stamping changes? I didn't. :smile:�
Aug 5, 2015
AmpedRealtor Of course I'm hoping for the best... but if Tesla flounders due to these issues, it's a crisis of its own making.�
Aug 5, 2015
dsm363 iPhone 5 and 6 (slightly bigger screen) are same basic design with different internals and only slightly different form factor. The Model S is a sedan and the Model X is a crossover. Someone considering a sedan might not be interested in a crossover vehicle and the other way around too. I have no idea if a refresh of the Model S design is coming soon or not but don't think the Model X being present will kill Model S sales. Maybe people who thought about buying a Model S would buy a Model X but that is still a sale for Tesla.�
Aug 5, 2015
SteveG3 As to Tesla considering a capital raise... I think they want to see what combined ongoing S/X demand is. They more or less lowered 2016 guidance today from 100K+ to 80-90K. I wouldn't be surprised if at the time they suggested entering 2016 at at 100K run rate, they thought 130K or more vehicles per year was a likely demand level in the out years. It's still possible, but they are more cautious about it. That's probably about a $500 million difference in cash available to spend on expansion (GF, Model 3, etc), each year depending on whether demand turns out to be more like 80K or 130K.
While I would rather not see a secondary soon, I don't think a 5-10% increase in shares meaningfully changes the long range attractiveness of a Tesla investment.
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I didn't hear that message. Last call, Elon said, he thinks the Model X will be as good an SUV as the S is a sedan.
I do agree there's a challenge here with perception of S looking less compelling. We've already seen a couple of pre-emptive steps on this- the referral program, new S offerings a couple of weeks ago (even the whole addition of dual motors a year ago). I think if there is a bigger battery for the X within months if not immediately it will be available for the S. The X may hit me with some wonderful improvements I've not imagined, but for me, such a potential bigger battery only offered on the X is the only potential X exclusive that would deter me from getting an S (and as I say, I think it's very unlikely that it would be an X exclusive for more than a few months if at all).�
Aug 5, 2015
dsm363 I would think we've already seen the bigger battery (90kWh) that will be on the X. There is little reason to offer a bigger battery pack on the X and not on the Model S.�
Aug 5, 2015
Todd Burch Some folks here need to crush up a chill pill and smoke it.
There are lots of people who don't cross-shop XUVs/SUVs and sedans. There are lots of people who don't want an X. There are a lot of people who want the 2.8sec 0-60 performance of the S that the X will not be able to deliver. Regardless of the Model X's capabilities and feature set, it doesn't take away from the fact that the Model S is among the best sedans on the planet and, considering all things, many consider to be the best by far.
The doom and gloom here is silly...some folks here are starting to sound like Seeking Alpha writers. Just relax folks, there wasn't really anything earth-shattering in this conference call, which in my opinion is why it was pretty boring. The most impactful message long term was regarding the future potential of the battery storage market (Tesla Energy), and anyone who's spent a little time on these forums should already realize the enormous potential it represents for Tesla's future revenue.�
Aug 5, 2015
aznt1217 Thank you! I second this notion and its pretty easy to sum it up: not everybody wants an SUV
Just saw Todd's comment above. Thank you sir�
Aug 5, 2015
MikeC I think the analogy is more between an iPhone 6 and iPhone 6+. Basically the same internals but some people want more space and others want a sleeker form.
Yes, the Model X will be better in a lot of ways because it is coming three years later. I would be worried if they did not incorporate all they learned from the Model S to make the X awesome. This does not mean that S sales will fall off a cliff - heck, the Model S is 10 years ahead of it's ICE competition and they're still selling. It will still be the second best vehicle on the market and the best sedan by a wide margin.
The X has been cannibalizing the S for years - my wife would have been driving one long ago if we didn't know the X was coming.�
Aug 5, 2015
anticitizen13.7 The analogy doesn't quite work, because Model S and Model X target very different customer profiles. Think of it this way: a person who wants to buy a Honda Accord (mid-size sedan) is not likely to chose a Honda Pilot (a 3-row SUV) simply because the Pilot is a brand new model this year. While the 2016 Pilot has more interior amenities, a new 9-speed automatic transmission, and optional torque vectoring AWD, its styling, efficiency, and capacity aren't wanted or needed by the typical Accord buying customer.
I also believe that Model X will be noticeably more expensive than Model S. There's almost no way that the X's beefier tow-capable chassis, larger frame, and more complicated interior will cost the same as Model S.�
Aug 5, 2015
Bighorn You couldn't give me an SUV. The best looking SUV is still a pretty homely beast. They've alluded to how difficult and time consuming it's been to design the Model X and make it marginally aesthetically pleasing. The Model S will remain a tour de force in the automotive industry for the foreseeable future, redesign or no. Whatever geewhiz tech they've come up with to add to the Model X should translate relatively easily to the S.�
Aug 5, 2015
Mille Pun Thanks for canceling
both S and X are on the premier line in Tesla, and I don't see any reason why Musk will set differentiate on technology, basically they are sedan and SUX and both are CAR! When u order a newly gadget u will get the latest technology, even on the same model. So some people will keep on waiting iPhone 8,9.....and hesitate to order the current best model that they can get.�
Aug 5, 2015
Todd Burch Off topic I know, but speaking of which...I would like some Falcon doors retrofitted to my S. Hopefully for less than $1000�
Aug 5, 2015
Bighorn You couldn't pay me to take a falcon wing retrofit on my S�
Aug 5, 2015
Spidy Well, it was just not the best idea to call it like that. People mostly know Autopilot from aircrafts and there they usually operate without the pilot having to pay much attention and they even eat and do other stuff while it's on (and everyone has seen a hollywood movie where it gets turned on last second and then saves everyone :biggrin�
Aug 5, 2015
Lerxt This is totally incorrect regarding aircraft autopilots. Autopilots are monitored very closely by at least one of the pilots all of the time. They are an assistant, they are not in command.�
Aug 5, 2015
dsm363 2015 Q2 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conferenc...
Agree. Better analogy with iPhone 6 vs 6+ I didn't even consider the 6+ due to size. Probably wouldn't get the Model X either for same reason. If Tesla takes years to update the Model S to catch up Model X then maybe but that's very unlikely.�
Aug 5, 2015
AmpedRealtor I'm just worried about my favorite company of all time, that's all. I want them to hit it out of the park all the time. I know that's not sustainable, but I can't help it. I want them to succeed. But I've also seen how good Tesla is at self-inflicting wounds. Their execution is what has me concerned.
I agree in a general sense. But as a customer who is spending a lot of money - two or three times what that customer spent on a car previously (which is a lot of us) - wouldn't you hesitate buying a Model S when you see the Model X and all of its interior goodness? Isn't the natural thought pattern "so this cool stuff is coming to the S, so I should just wait"? There will be some obvious things, like improved headlights, motorized spoiler (already seen in the wild), curved windshield above your head (also seen in the wild), rumored 360-view, improved interior, etc. That's stuff that's been seen or talked about, there could be more surprises. That's where I'm going with this... it's not about the different market segments, it's about seeing the latest model and knowing that the model you really want - the sedan - will undergo a major update soon, so better to wait. I'm not saying it's going to happen, just that I'm worried about it. I hope I'm wrong.�
Aug 5, 2015
Mille Pun It's my first time seeing ppl 'worry' a company offering cooler product / technology:biggrin:�
Aug 5, 2015
eloder
Carbuying is often an emotional thing. There are cars that, objectively, are far worse than others at a similar price point and form factor, but they're still bought. For example, anything in the Prius lineup versus most other hybrid hatchbacks (huge differences in mpg, cargo space, passenger room, etc.).
Or just look at the fact that trucks are the #1 commuter car for buyers. I never quite understood that, especially since my last commuter leased for under $100 a month and had 42 mpg.
I'm not really worried because while there might be some cannibalization between S and X, it's likely to be very small even if the MX blows away the MS. The main reason being, as others have mentioned, that the S still blows just about every ICE out there out of the water, and it still has the emotional "sexy, sporty" appeal that can't translate 100% to any SUV form-factor. Plus, it'll still be faster.�
Aug 5, 2015
Beavis I'm locking my doors and closing the shades. I have a hoard of food left over from Y2K. I'm going to the basement until things settle down.�
Aug 5, 2015
jdevo2004 Can someone do a point form of the relevant information for this quarter?�
Aug 5, 2015
anticitizen13.7 The obvious exterior stuff I actually don't care about. A motorized spoiler is just one more thing that can malfunction. The curved overhead windshield is unlikely to replace the panoramic roof as this would require major structural changes to Model S.
It's a fair point that improved electronics in Model X would almost certainly mean upgrades for Model S, if only because this helps Tesla reduce manufacturing complexity by having similar components across the product lines. That would give potential buyers pause, especially for tech savvy customers who are familiar with iPhone launch cycles. iPhone 6 demand is probably relatively low right now, given that the 6S is only 6 weeks away.
The flip side of this is that Model S components are tried and true at this point. If I'm paying 75-100k for a car, I'm not sure I necessarily want to be the adventurous early adopter. Even with something relatively simple like an iPhone, new things can go wrong. The iPhone 5 had a lot of launch issues, including weak anodized color on black slate models, power buttons that would go bad, and batteries that lost abnormal amounts of capacity. Apple eventually had recalls for the later 2 problems, but early adopters really got burned. If I needed a car and Model S as presently available suited my needs, I think I would buy it even if Model X showed off a bunch of fancy new tech.�
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