Apr 1, 2016
model3fan I'm happy the Model 3 orders are taking off, but as an east coaster ordering close to a base model, I can't help but be worried I won't be getting my car for years... at what point will east coasters who waited in line (even for base model) be considered before people ordering on days 2 to day 365 and beyond I wonder.
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Apr 1, 2016
Bimbels I'd say the rethink production planning part will include revising certain aspects of their deliveries - and hopefully starting with more production lines than originally planned to keep things moving...as an east coaster I am hoping we won't have to wait until the end of North America deliveries. There is significant interest in the East and I would think that is a good number of US reservations.�
Apr 1, 2016
sandpiper I would say to be careful about assuming that all of those reservations will turn into orders. A lot will change in 2 years. Plus, it's better to have excess demand than excess supply; one is profitable, the other is not.�
Apr 1, 2016
rayng that little fremont factory better ramp fast or lose a lot of this momentum. while some of us have waited as many as 4 years for the x, few first time tesla 3 reservation holders will be as patient. what will it take to add capacity at the fremont plant? triple shifts?�
Apr 1, 2016
model3fan Agree demand is good, but it's a bummer if day 1 orders to keep getting pushed farther and farther down the rabbit hole. Must remember, in Elon I trust...�
Apr 1, 2016
x_ray Those Tesla workers are about to be pushed 10 times harder than they already are.�
Apr 1, 2016
tigerade I was planning on waiting until Tesla actually started producing Model 3 cars before ordering. But with the surge of reservations, I was starting to get scared that I wouldn't be able to buy a car until mid 2019 or beyond if I didn't reserve. So I reserved today. I would anticipate getting the car in mid or late 2018 and I am fine with that.�
Apr 1, 2016
DrManhattan I bet 25% of those orders don't go through. Surely more will pre-order, but you will jump them in the queue. But yes, you're kinda screwed on the East Coast. Minimum 6-9 month wait I bet.�
Apr 1, 2016
timber107 doesn't look good for people needing the fed tax credit to make a purchase, if these reservations turn in to sales....�
Apr 1, 2016
Stoneymonster It's a phase out not a cutoff.�
Apr 1, 2016
jstoneman I'll be they can do 75k in the first year. 125k in 2019. 200k in 2020. They've got the demand on the books. Which bank wouldn't invest in a company with a problem like that? They'll get it done! WAY TO GO TESLA!�
Apr 1, 2016
bredi I bet for those 25% that dropout, more than 50% will order from now until production.
What a good problem to have.�
Apr 1, 2016
vortexz What If I am from Europe ?
I am from Eu and made a reservation ...
How much should I wait ? 2020 ?�
Apr 1, 2016
timber107 I know... I believe it gets cut in half the first year after 200,000 U.S sales�
Apr 1, 2016
vjason This builds on what I said yesterday.
How can you prioritize based on multiple factors (employee, existing owner, location, option level) when you have at least 18 months until launch?
My reservation went through at 10:11AM yesterday and I am on the east coast. At what point do all those higher on the "order food chain" no longer get priority over me?
There has to be SOME advantage to having stood in line for 6 hours yesterday to reserve right when the store opened. At some point, new orders have to stop having priority over older ones regardless of whether or not they should based on all the factors I referenced above.�
Apr 1, 2016
ELRev And those are a gross underestimate of what they hope to produce. 500k cars in 2020 would be primarily Model 3s. 200k that year is a very conservative estimate.�
Apr 1, 2016
ImEric They're now up over 215 Million in cash so far from Model ? orders, and most people can't part with $1000.00 for 2 years (which means a lot of people will have to wait until they can get one to reserve it). Phenomenal! I'm curious to see how all of the "skeptics" at Seeking Alpha will turn this into a negative. I'm sure that they'll pull out the crystal ball and predict that only 17 of the reservations will actually convert to orders, or they'll say that once the Bolt comes out, people will flock to it instead. Then, when the Bolt comes out and we keep our ? reservations, It'll be "There's no real demand for electric cars, those aren't real reservations!"
Or maybe there's some other boogieman on the horizon like "BMW is making a Model ? competitor due out in 2024!!!" or they'll assume that we don't know about the Tax credit expiration, or that 35k is only for the base model... even though I'm pretty sure everyone knows that, plus 37k is for a base model Bolt, as well. And for most people I've spoken with (myself included) the possibility of $7500.00 off doesn't determine whether or not we're buying the car. It more so just effects what options we'll get. I'm in L.A. I don't need dual motors, but for 45k after the tax credit, and CA rebate, you bet I'll have dual motors and an upgraded battery! I would guess that more than 70% of reservations are Model S aspirants who either prefer a smaller car, or can't afford the S, and we'll be converting those reservations to purchases when the time comes... and this comes from someone who hates the idea of having the speedometer off to the side.
Seriously, TSLA shorts have to be Sh***ing themselves right about now.�
Apr 1, 2016
ImEric There already is. Everybody who's otherwise in your circumstance (non-owner, non-employee, lives in NC, ordering the same trim as you) will be behind you.
That said... I get your point. I'm in L.A., so I could walk in today and get the same trim as you, but get mine first. I see your frustration.�
Apr 1, 2016
jtpassat only time will tell... so many things can change in 18+ months�
Apr 1, 2016
HopeToGolf I hope the first level of priority is by day and then rank according to their "factors." The idea that a non-owner/employee from CA who reserved today could receive a similarly equipped car before an east coast non-owner/employee just does not seem quite right.�
Apr 1, 2016
rnelsonee Only time will tell, but as an East Coast line waiter like you, even though I was near the front of the line (well 35th out of 300), I think will be lucky if I get the car before 2019 unless I order the larger battery and AWD, which means >$50,000 (most likely). And that's if Tesla is on time.
With ~100,000 people ahead of me (West coasters, Midwest, fully optioned) I (we) just can't expect to get a Model 3 within 12 months of the first one rolling off the line. Tesla hasn't even delivered 100,000 vehicles in the US since their founding. To expect that in less than a year is too optimistic.
The tax credit being phased by time is nice - if 200,000 is Q2 2018, then a Q1 2019 gets me $3750, Q2-Q3 at least gets $1875.�
Apr 1, 2016
Bimbels If higher options are going first, that would mean (I think) PXXD west to east, then XX/XXD, xx/xxD. Typically they've built by battery size. The question will be if they increase the lines/ramp to move things quickly.�
Apr 1, 2016
vjason And I'm not even the one who should really be concerned. What about those outside N. America?
I'd hate to put ~2800 miles on the car just after I bought it, but if they told me I'd get it 9-12 months earlier if I picked it up at the factory I'd likely do it.
Believe me I understand prioritization to maximize revenue, but they've sold more than 7 months worth of production in 27 hours. The only thing that will hurt revenue at this point is not producing the cars fast enough, which will lead some to ask for their deposit back.
At the end of the day I just hope they can communicate how things will work, and that there is hope for those of us east of CA (and to be fair, outside N. America).
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Apr 1, 2016
Bimbels I will pick up my 3 on the West coast - if it gets me into that queue. I've been wanting to do cross country (one way - ha.) Hoping it's possible.�
Apr 1, 2016
pinski I'm in the same boat as you, and absolutely would do the same as well, if it meant getting it earlier. That said, I'm not sure that anybody knows for sure how the rollout is going to work.
For instance, when is the cutoff? Someone on the West Coast could probably walk into a Tesla store next week and jump me, but what about next month? Six months?
What about rollout? I've accepted that the first deliveries will go to Tesla owners on the West Coast, but it may not make sense to delivery all customer cars on the West Coast before proceeding east. I believe ours will be the last US queue opened and closed, but I would imagine that our queue will be opened before the West Coast queue is closed.
Just my $0.02 anyway.�
Apr 1, 2016
Allante Good 'ol Anton on Seeking Alpha already tried his hand at it this morning. His argument is this: Tesla is losing $20K per car today. The 100K backlog of Model 3 orders x $20K = a loss of $20 billion. Therefore, Tesla will soon go bankrupt, so start shorting now.
Gotta love him, as well as his partner in crime Montana Skeptic.�
Apr 1, 2016
Autolycus As an east-coaster, I will say that it would be pretty crappy, and possibly deal-breaking, if they don't use some blend of time, in person vs. online, and geography rather than just "all west coast preorders go first, then slide across the country." That could mean as much as a $7,500 net purchase price difference when we reserved ahead of many people on the west coast.
I fully expect to be fairly far down the list, and that's fine. Because of work, I could not get in line but did place a reservation in person at about 5:30-6:00pm EDT yesterday. But I still think I should get priority over someone who ordered online last night or anywhere today, except possibly priorities like employee, current owner, etc. But because I'm on the east coast, I might have to wait months longer than someone who placed an order 100k people later than me?! Come on.
Because of the way the tax credit phases out, I do hope that Tesla will be aggressive with their gaming of it. If they're close to 200k deliveries toward the end of a quarter, they could do a lot of their customers a solid by holding back shipments to keep from crossing 200k until the next quarter.�
Apr 1, 2016
JST I think we should not get too stressed out about where we are in line. I suspect that there will be a LOT of potential logistical factors that play into how cars get scheduled and delivered, from production mix to part/subcomponent availability to who knows what else.
I view the deposit as a way to participate in a fun game and as a way to guarantee that I'll have a spot sort of close to the front of the line. But I'm not going to complain too hard if what it ends up meaning is that I get a car 6 months after production starts, when someone else who ordered after me gets a car 5 months after production starts.�
Apr 1, 2016
bredi which is why they need to be ignored.�
Apr 1, 2016
tanner Definitely not "little"... It was once (under GM and Toyota) able to/will be capable of producing 500,000 cars a year.�
Apr 1, 2016
dgpcolorado The idea that all West Coast reservations will be filled before any East Coast reservations, makes no sense to me. I expect that the first batch of cars will go to the West Coast and then batches will work east from there. But the idea that those on the East Coast, never mind Europe and other overseas markets, will have to wait until all the West Coast reservations have been filled seems very unlikely to me.
I think the angst over this issue is unjustified.�
Apr 1, 2016
eye.surgeon No one will get "pushed". This is California, we have the most highly regulated work environment in the country., Current workers may have the option of lucrative overtime, but certainly additional shifts will be hired. We are talking a thousand new employees or more.�
Apr 1, 2016
ZachF I don't think the problem will be the Fremont plant, but getting battery production up to the full capacity. With the first day demand being what it is, I wouldn't be surprised if elon is thinking about doubling the capacity at the gigafactory before it's even been built... The problem isn't demand, it's supply. I also would not be surprised to hear about future factories and corresponding gigafactories to be announced in asia, Europe, and the eastern US in the coming months/years.�
Apr 1, 2016
Seesaw Wonder where I stand, being on the other side of the planet and in a right-hand-drive country?
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Apr 1, 2016
ImEric Wait! I thought they were losing $4k/car? LOL! They can't even decide on their own non-math. Wasn't the last news from Tesla that they're approaching 30% profit on each car/suv they sell right now? With an Average selling price of about 100k, it's easy to do the math on their guidance for this year of 80-90k units moved. That's somewhere between 2 and 3.5Bn in revenue for 2016. Of course, doubling superchargers and service centers, continued expansion of the Gigafactory, fitting the Freemont factory to absorb higher capacities or Models S/X and the continued development of Model ? could easily eat through all of it, but that's to be expected from a company that doesn't expect to turn a real GAAP profit before 2020. Tesla could easily be massively profitable in Quarter 2 of 2016 if they wanted to be. But that would mean slowing down the expansion and probably missing the ? deadline, plus not having the proper infrastructure upon its release. Those guys are reaching at this point.�
Apr 1, 2016
BBryson The availability of batteries may be the real limiting factor.
However, jtpassat posted this referance to a artical on Barrons.com about Model 3 production:
"Delivery will be a cakewalk"
�
Apr 1, 2016
StraightDave Not all orders will be filled. Some people simply won't wait two years for a new model when all you have to do is wait another year for a CPO at half the cost.�
Apr 1, 2016
hoang51 This priority issue has been beaten to death. See information from this thread here: East Coasters to get short end of the stick
Especially see post # 19 within that thread: East Coasters to get short end of the stick
Basically, to summarize, it would make sense in accordance with Tesla Motor's desire to ship out the highly priced Model 3 first, from west coast to east coast, then move down the Model 3 tier and ship out the next batch of lower cost Model 3. Within each batch, priority is picked from previous owners, employees, and first come first serve. So the east coast isn't entirely doomed. Just those who wants a basic Model 3 would be in for a long wait.�
Apr 1, 2016
mcghee33 But can they do that many in addition to the Model S and X's that they have to build? Remember in 2015 they only produced 50k cars. So to think that they will be able to even double the amount of output would be a huge feat. I think that is why Elon is saying to hurry up and get your reservations in.....it also is a good marketing line�
Apr 1, 2016
Future3Driver I also think Elon and the leadership team understand the real demand and will add the resources necessary to meet the strategic objectives and aggressive timelines.�
Apr 1, 2016
Dogwhistle Tesla Model 3 Order/Production team...
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Apr 1, 2016
voip-ninja More like 25% of the reservations will turn into actual orders. I'm sure many people will reconsider when it gets closer to order time and they have to spec the car out and write the "big" check or arrange financing.
I believe that out of the Model S reservations something like 90% bailed.�
Apr 1, 2016
Stoneymonster Possible, but by production time they will easily have 300-500k reservations even counting attrition. There will be a new burst near production.�
Apr 1, 2016
bhzmark source?�
Apr 1, 2016
deonb No. Just no. At least 50% of the pre-reservations ordered cars.
Remember, we had consecutive VIN numbers back then, complete with spreadsheets and everything.�
Apr 1, 2016
pmich80 I think at some point he may decide to just do higher spec'd cars across the board and ship them across the continent... then work downwards from there. i think thats' better than going west/midwest/east. I say this knowing i'm going to highly option my car hahah�
Apr 1, 2016
neroden Because of the tax credit phaseout, Tesla is going to have to plan to build *all* the US models before *any* of the non-US models, to maximize the benefit for their customers. Unless there's a tax credit being phased out in some other country too!�
Apr 1, 2016
pmich80 that's what i'm thinking too.. i want to pick mine up in Vancouver and then drive it eastbound home if it saves me 6 months.�
Apr 1, 2016
doublejj In it's hayday that Freemont plant was producing 500k Toyotas a year...�
Apr 1, 2016
pmich80 this is exactly how i assume it'll play out now. PxxD for me please!�
Apr 1, 2016
timk225 Does the car HAVE to be RHD to be driven in your country? In the USA, I don't believe there any special requirements, permissions, or licenses needed to put a RHD car on the road.�
Apr 1, 2016
mkjayakumar Anton Whalman in Seeking Lies actual stated in one of his comments that, all these hundreds of thousands of reservations will actually abandon Tesla and move to buy a Bolt once they get their hands on a test drive..... because Bolt is smaller and so easier to park.�
Apr 1, 2016
BBryson So the challenge the Tesla engineers now have is to design a production process that is at least as efficient as Toyota did with ICE vehicles.
That will be the biggest driver on production costs and time. It will also be the number one cause for changes to the car from today to production.�
Apr 1, 2016
houdini Thanks for thinking of us
For the Tesla stock shorters though it still won't make me cancel! The car is sold to me, And we don't get any kind of incentives here and we pay for shippnig across the ocean and sales tax and stamp duty etc etc etc. Base here will be $60K. Whatever. I bought a Model 3 and I' ecstatic.�
Apr 1, 2016
Devanish Musk is projecting 500K by 2020, that is around a 50% increase YOY from now until then.�
Apr 1, 2016
doublejj I really think the biggest bottleneck will be producing enough batteries....�
Apr 1, 2016
Tina C I agree - I think they will roll it out in batches. Maybe even in batches of 5,000 highly optioned each region, then move back to the first region and repeat until they work their way down the options & orders. I would imagine if an employee wanted priority they would have already had to place their reservation, especially since they could do it before the 31st. It would make sense to work through all the orders through day 1 or 2 and then after those are filled start on the people who reserved day 3 or later, etc depending on reservation quantities. Current owners who reserved in the first day or two would get priority in that batch. I highly doubt a person, or previous owner, could walk into a store on the West coast days or months later and jump the line just because they are on the West coast or own a Tesla. At some time they would need to pause & fill RHD orders & then go back to LHD orders otherwise the RHD orders would never get filled. With the revealed dash design, I don't think it will take too much retooling to switch between RHD & LHD production.�
Apr 1, 2016
Tina C No because the US tax credit only applies to the first 200,000 cars they sold in the US. They have sold plenty overseas and will continue to without any affect to the US tax credit.�
Apr 1, 2016
wdolson Of course that math only works if it's costing them $20K more to build a car than they sell it for. They are losing money, but they actually sell Model S and Model Xs for around 20K more than they cost to produce. So they make $20K a car. Because they have a lot invested in R&D, they are expanding the supercharger network, building the Gigafactory, as well as various overhead costs, when all those things are totaled up, they lose money and if you divide it by the number of cars sold, it comes to $20K a car. Or it did near the end of last year when Model X production was tiny and before the year end building blitz.
The numbers for the first quarter will tell a different tale. They cut back on supercharger installations, I think they may have slowed down the Gigafactory build a little, and Model X production has ramped up. If they have a loss this quarter, I expect it to be significantly smaller than last year, and they may manage to eek out a small profit.
When the Model 3 hits its production stride, the company will probably be able to post consistent profits, or at least break even. I expect they will be rolling all their profits back into the company for some time to come. The Model Y comes after the Model 3, then the next gen Roadster, superchargers and service centers will need to be added as well as building more factories. The base income to support these things will continue to expand though. Something the chicken little investors don't seem to get.�
Apr 1, 2016
LargeHamCollider Exactly, there are a lot of unwarranted and pessimistic assumptions being made on this thread.�
Apr 1, 2016
TytanX I'm perfectly OK waiting a few more months for Tesla to get the bugs out. Let the west coast be the guinea pigs�
Apr 1, 2016
RobStark I believe that is 90% bovine feces.�
Apr 1, 2016
vjason Heh no problem. Have to be fair since I'm not at the actual bottom of the delivery food chain.
Tesla knows its business of course, so this is mainly me flapping my gums (what the Internet is for of course), but given that they are entering a what is likely to be their one time "hyper-growth" phase (think Apple ahead of the iPhone or even iPad) I just want them to be successful. Not saying they can't grow a lot more once the 3 deliveries level off (they will obviously) but hopefully they don't lose ground to other manufacturers in some areas because they were slow to ship cars there.
I work for a global company (EMC), and I very much appreciate when a country other than my own helps us grow during those periods when the US is not. it keeps the company much more stable than if our success was overly dependent on just a handful of countries. Here's hoping Tesla continues that trend for themselves and maintains their edge.
Regardless, the type of problems Tesla has today are "good" ones. Kudos to them, and all those that worked like (and will work like) maniacs to make magic happen late next year.
�
Apr 1, 2016
McHoffa HAHA! Dump a Tesla for a more expensive Chevy that has no supercharging? I just don't see ANYONE doing that.�
Apr 1, 2016
cgiGuy From the reservation confirmation email:
I think the point was, once the 200K number has been tripped, they have a finite amount of time to deliver as many as they can to other customers during the phase out period. So, each car being delivering overseas would potentially be one less car that could be delivered in the US and still qualify for (all or some of) the credit.�
Apr 1, 2016
Xminus6 I've never seen anything that limits the incentives to a time period. I thought it was always tied to unit sales in the US.�
Apr 1, 2016
cgiGuy Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D)
"Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer�s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (�phase-out period�). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period."�
Apr 1, 2016
model3fan check out my write up (with the help from TMC) here if you're interested www.teslamodel3fan.com/incentives�
Apr 1, 2016
Red Sage Here, take a look at this chart:
The IRS works by 'Calendar Quarters'. So, if the 200,000th vehicle is built on any day during the period of January 1 through June 30, the first half of the year, then the following quarters, which would be July 1 through December 31, would see a reduction by 50% of the Tax Credit. Similarly, if it is built on any day during July 1 through December 31, the 50% reduction would take place at the beginning of the following year, so January 1 through June 30. After the period of 50% reduction ends, the following two calendar quarters would receive only a 25% reduction. Keep in mind, this is tied to the VIN for the particular car, and when it is built. Not necessarily when someone takes delivery of it as an end user. That is because vehicles sold through 'independent franchised dealerships' may sit on a car lot somewhere for months on end before anyone buys them. Whenever it happens, it would be to the advantage of new buyers if the 200,000th unit were built as early in January or June as possible, so that the $7,500 Tax Credit level could be maintained for all other units built in that six month period.
Well, I think that is the reason for Elon's Tweets, speaking of rethinking Production, as noted near the beginning of this thread. By my calculations, Tesla Motors needs to begin actual Production of Model ? at 2,000 units per week. That is equivalent to 100,000 units per year. But, they must ramp up from there to 4,000 units per week, or 200,000 units per year, almost immediately if they are to reduce 'The WAIT' for new orders from 12+ months to under 3 months within a reasonable time frame. I expect that during the first full year of Production, around 80% of Deliveries will be to US Customers.
Please see the chart and description above.
They will have to do far more than merely double Production. Remember, Elon's goal for the end of 2015 was that the lines for Model S and Model X would have the same Capacity, up to 1,000 units per week, each. They slipped on that, but expect to at least approach the mark, Production of 800+ each, during Q2 2016. The Model ? will have to start at around 2,000 units per week, then ramp up to 4,000 per week in short order. This is something that must be done. Or bad things will happen.
Uhm... No. When the first Model S were Delivered in June 2012 there were about 10,000 outstanding Reservations. By January 2013, they had Delivered about 2,600 units. And there were 13,000 outstanding Reservations at that point. So, if by your count, 9,000 long-term Reservation holders bailed... They were replaced by 12,000 willing participants over a six month period.
Uhm... No. Only the vehicles that are being offered for use in the United States of America count against the 200,000 unit total. Tesla Motors could ship 10,000,000 of Model ? to overseas markets, or Canada, or Mexico, and it wouldn't have any effect whatsoever on the IRS total for the Tax Credit. That is why the VIN is important, because the destination Country is part of its designation.
Yeah. The first two full calendar years of Model S Production were all to Left Hand Drive Territories. I'm certain that Elon would like to do better with Model ?. In fact, he'd probably like to do better with the Model X as well. Looking at the placeholder interior for the Model ?, I suspect the design is like that for the sake of making installations for Right Hand Drive vehicles that much easier. That said, I would be very surprised if locations such as the United Kingdom, Japan, or Australia received their cars within 15-to-18 months after the first car is Delivered in the US. So, I would expect April 2019 would be the earliest you could hope to see your Model ?.
Thank you. I do hope you can hold out. I know that dborn at the Tesla Motors Forums literally waited a full four years to get his Model S in Australia. I expect your version of 'The WAIT' will not be quite as long.�
![[?IMG]](https://338ae10e5d07a96de44c4241b97a765a83c7fd2b.googledrive.com/host/0B7n6jc4fQOZjTUd4dGlQQ19fbEE/phaseoutdiagramPlugin.gif)
Apr 1, 2016
HookBill Let's see now, Elon thanked the Model S and X owners for their purchases because those purchases helped fund the R&D for the Model 3. Seems to me that if Tesla lost $20K per car, the R&D must have been paid for with Monopoly money. This truly is, then, a bizarro world.�
Apr 1, 2016
YBT Crysal ball time: "Rethinking production" doesn't mean ramping Freemont faster (probably not possible anyway), but instead building out a second factory. You could make a case for RHD drive capable factory based in Asia. This mega machine could supply S & X from one line and 3 & Y from another to allow for far easier penetration of non-US markets. Of course it will require all materials to be routed to it - a sufficiently complex puzzle in itself to solve. Also may require Gigafactory Mkii in a nearby location to supply cells.
Food for thought ( & speculation)�
Apr 1, 2016
rnelsonee Your text is an incorrect interpretation of the graphic. The tax credit does go by quarter, not half year. If the 200,000th vehicle is sold in Q1, then the full credit is available in Q1 and Q2, and half credit Q3 and Q4, then 25% in Q1 and Q2 the next year.
But where you veer is that if 200,000 is reached in Q2, then Q2 and Q3 has the full tax credit, and Q4 and Q1 (next year) has half, then Q2 and Q3 (next year) have 25%. Source: IRS.
>The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer�s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (�phase-out period�). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.�
Apr 1, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Sell 199,999 cars in the USA.
Then build up production, selling exclusively to the rest of the world.
Then produce and sell a _lot_ of US cars for the next 18 months.�
Apr 1, 2016
Seesaw There are GM and Toyota plants closing in Australia next year, we would happily welcome the Model 3 here!!�
Apr 1, 2016
HookBill Do you have lithium mines too? Tesla could build another Gigafactory also thus solving that supply problem.�
Apr 1, 2016
Uncle Paul Due to the tax credit situation, I would believe that very few of the original reservers would cancel their order. Getting essentially a $10,000 or so reduction in costs, with following vehicles costing full price would be a strong incentive to maintain your place in line.
You could buy your Model 3, drive it 2 or 3 years and sell it for pretty much what you paid for it.�
Apr 1, 2016
Red Sage Exactly.
Please note that Panasonic uses their factory in Japan to prepare components of battery cells, but ships those materials to China for assembly. Once the battery cells are completed in China, they are shipped to the US. Once they arrive on these shores, they are transported to Fremont, where they are placed in Tesla battery packs. So, once a Tesla Factory is opened in China, the battery cells to be assembled into battery packs would come from China. Of course, shipments to Australia would still be from Fremont... The Chinese Tesla Factory would only support China's buyers. I'm sure that China has plenty of suppliers for glass, aluminum, steel, and plastics.
Fremont absolutely must be ramped up at a rate that greatly exceeds what has been done with Model X and Model X to cover Model ? orders. Because interest in Tesla Generation III vehicles will not be some 'flash in the pan', 'passing fad', or 'limited market'. It will be ongoing. It will be constantly growing. And it would simply not do to have a 24 month waiting list at 18 months into Production.�
Apr 1, 2016
ggnykk You guys shouldn't worry about passing the 200,000 tax credit cut off. It is pretty clear that better version of Model 3 (bigger base battery, autopilot 2.0 etc) will come right when all the tax credit is gone. Tesla is not stupid in terms of product planning road map.�
Apr 1, 2016
Lerxt Great idea. Build a factory in one of the most expensive places to do business in the world. And with an asset bubble beginning to deflate. Oh and then there is the tax....�
Apr 2, 2016
neroden Hah! Remember they're selling Model S and Model X at the same time, though. I think they can't play it THAT tight.
Perhaps it actually does make sense to start with Canadian deliveries (for example) during the slow ramp-up period, so that they're at full speed before they reach the 200,000 number in the US.�
Apr 2, 2016
TaoJones Always thought it curious that CO offers $6K and CA just $2.5K. Rationalizations and excuses aside, it will be interesting to see how State participation changes once the federal tax credit goes away.
Of course, this will be after most of the States penalize alt-fuel owners for having the temerity to not pollute. Er, to not pay gas taxes ostensibly in support of road budgets.
Wouldn't mind seeing an ICE tax for contributing to air pollution-related deaths from lung cancer. Am sure NADA would fight that one, yeah.�
Apr 2, 2016
luvnMyTS I think east coaster's are getting worried about nothing.
Best I can tell, employees get first dibs. Current owners get next priority. Of the current owners, those on the west coast get first crack at it since they're closest. After that, I think it just turns into orders based on your place in line. I think the West to East priority will only relate to the early orders for existing owners. For those out of the country, that's probably a different story. Would assume the US will have it's preorders filled before the rest of the world. If you're not in the US, probably looking at 2020 at the earliest.�
Apr 2, 2016
souslik No way. Judging from S and X I'd guess first deliveries in Europe will occur no later than one year after production start. Maybe more of a hope than a guess, though.�
Apr 2, 2016
StudMuffin I think priority is easy to do
1. Employees west to east(would think almost all in Cal)
2. Existing Tesla owners west to east
The next priority is just a guess but easily done by time blocks
3. First 24 hour time block or could be in store orders first day west to east
4. Second day orders west to east
As the reservations slow down they might move to week or month time blocks. And on down the line as well as other parts of the world in there somewhere.�
Apr 2, 2016
Tezlah I have the same fear, as an east coast non-owner that stood in line early on the 31st, however..
Tesla only said that deliveries would START on the west coast and move east. They did not say all west coast deliveries will be fulfilled first, then move east. They simply said deliveries will START on the west coast... I interpret this as, west coast people who ordered in-store on the 31st will be before me, then mid-west in-store orders on the 31st; then east coasters who ordered in-store on the 31st.
That would put people who ordered in store on the east coast on the 31st at no further back than 75-100K (probably much closer, knowing that 115K WORLDWIDE reservations were made by reveal time)
If Tesla delivers 150K Model 3s by the end of 2018, people like you and I will be in relatively good shape. I'm guessing mid-late 2018 delivery time, even if you're ordering just a few options, but maybe I'm overly optimistic.
Am I missing something?�
Apr 2, 2016
Bimbels Well, maybe. (You're missing something.) they will be starting with higher optioned cars. So it's not going to go by the reservation list according to who was in line when. It will probably go by battery size/P option firet. X owners will attest there doesn't seem to be logic (as they interpret the list.)�
Apr 2, 2016
rnelsonee Oh you might be right (although as the other commentor noted, options are a big factor). I'm just a cynic
Also were you at Tyco or the Mall by chance? I was at the Tyco service center (35th in line) - it was fun.�
Apr 2, 2016
jerry33 They have plenty of space and the M3 can't be built on the same production lines, so it should be possible. I'd expect the first year to be low just like the first Model S year was slow. However, M3 production won't affect S or X production.�
Apr 2, 2016
roguenode EV proponents in Colorado worked with the state legislature to get the current rebate in place. The tax rebate formula is base retail of the car x battery size (in kWH / 100. There's a cap at $6000, which the model 3 should hit. It is in place through 2021. As a tradeoff, Colorado EV owners each pay and additional EV fee of $50 with their annual car registration, a portion of that goes to funding public EV charging stations (Level 2). It's one of the better state models I've seen and I recommend those that want to push their state representatives to take a closer look at it.
I am a non-owner/employee and will likely get a middle spec 3 (45k or so) car. My expectation is half the fed rebate and the full CO rebate, combining for $10,750 rebates the year following my delivery. One of the many benefits of living in this state. We definitely envy CA's SC network though.�
Apr 2, 2016
Tezlah I was at the Tyco Sercice Center, about 45th or so in line, so not too far back from you. Great experience!�
Apr 2, 2016
CT200h IT would be nice to have a regional breakdown of the 232,000 or so orders . remember for all of us in the USA we are lucky to be 1st in the worldwide scheme of deliveries. west coast 1st then the rest of the usa. 100,000 or more of the reservations could be from other countries and not affect us at all.
BTW I was at Tyco rd around 10:30am, about 150 plus in front of me but I was finished by 11:50am�
Apr 2, 2016
pmich80 that is actually incorrect. theyre phasing it over the next few quarters after they sell 200,000. So individuals in the following 2 quarters after they sell 200,000 will still get the full tax credit then half of that the following 3rd quarter and then 1/4th of the last quarter.�
Apr 2, 2016
MassModel3 So consider this:
If a car delivery truck can hold 10 cars, and that one truck is delivering between zero and 300 miles from the factory (150 mile average one way, 300 mile average round trip), then by the time the truck has 6,000 miles on it it could theoretically deliver 20 loads, or 200 cars. If that same truck were to deliver to the east coast, it could deliver 10 cars with a return trip for the next load.
The deliveries to the west coast makes complete sense when looked at in this way. Tesla wants to get as many cars out the door as fast as they can, and east coast deliveries just don't make that happen.
At some point they weighed the difference between profit for highly optioned cars to the east coast versus low to no options delivered abundantly to he west coast. Where the graphed profit margins for each of these crosses is where Tesla draws the line to deliver to new areas.
Unfortunately, the next logical conclusion is that the more reservations they get up front, the longer the delay will be for the east coast because there are going to be more highly optioned west coasters who will keep the profit margins from shifting east as soon as they otherwise would.�
Apr 2, 2016
Justmurr I ordered not long after 10am EST...but I think as an east coaster who isn't a current owner it would prudent to not count on getting much in the way of a federal credit.....I will be optioning my model 3 as if I'm paying full price.
Back to waiting.�
Apr 2, 2016
deonb Why not just use one of the trucks that come from Detroit and Indiana that delivers, you know... the other 99% of cars being sold in California, and send them back out full?�
Apr 2, 2016
JBare That would be nice. I was I. the mall at 10:20, I'd say about 150 in line ahead of me. By the time I walked I. To order I guesstimated another 50 behind me.
Wouldn't surprise me to see Elon max out that Fed rebate; as in making sure the 200,000th car was sold on day 1 of a quarter to help out the most Teslonians for their support.�
Apr 2, 2016
EinSV The great thing about so many reservations flooding in is that it gives Tesla better insight on how to plan their factories so they are producing the right number of cars for the demand from the get-go.
Elon has already said they need to rethink production in light of the number of reservations. It is highly likely that a second production factory will be in the works soon, probably either in China (most likely) or Europe. With a factory or factories built to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles right off the bat (after a little break-in period) the ramp-up will be much faster than what most people anticipate, and people who have already ordered (wherever they live) are likely to get their Model 3s sooner than they might expect.
After Elon and Tesla have a chance to rethink production in light of the huge number of Model 3 reservations, we will likely hear more about Tesla's plans to accelerate the ramp-up, including targeting max capacity at Fremont sooner than expected and very likely a new factory to expand beyond the capacity at Fremont. Then everyone, regardless of where they live, will get their Model 3s sooner than many on this thread are predicting.�
Apr 2, 2016
eloder It doesn't quite work that way. For one, trains are very popular for moving cars over great distances. Secondly, the truck can take cars back on a return trip. The trucks (and freight in general) often have multiple stops, routes, tracks, etc. so that it takes a few weeks or more to complete one round trip.
I personally (just a guess) believe the west coast priority is going to be minimal, just to help account for the time zone difference and help keep cars in high infrastructure areas in case of early issues.�
Apr 2, 2016
MassModel3 A bit after I posted I considered the train piece. Yes, a huge amount of freight and vehicles are quickly transported across the country by train, and I would love to see trains with 2 or 3 hundred Model 3's crossing the country, and it'll probably happen eventually, but local deliveries will always go just a bit more quickly than long distance deliveries. But as you point out, taking trains into consideration lessens the bleak output I initially outlined. Bear in mind, too, that the vehicles need to be transported both to and from a train yard, adding time and logistics to the transport process. Local deliveries don't need all those steps -- put the car on a truck and the next stop is a service center, versus truck to train to truck to service center.
As for trucks taking cars both directions, yes, that will absolutely be the case. But the fact of the matter is that we're only talking about Moel 3's outbound from Fremont. Return haulers carrying Fords and Chevy's does nothing to move more Model 3's, it only provides for more trucks on the road that Tesla can use for transporting. Filling the load in both directions helps the truckers, but doesn't really move more of the vehicles coming from a given plant.�
Apr 2, 2016
eloder That's just how freight works. Tesla (and other automakers) aren't waiting for one specific truck to come to and from destinations. They pay more for the initial trip to go longer distances, sure, but they don't have any additional wait time whatsoever related to a return trip. Whether Tesla sends 100k vehicles to the east coast over a month or over a year, it's going to cost exactly the same.�
Apr 2, 2016
Andyw2100 The following may be the funniest thing I've seen in a long time. The post itself isn't what I find so amusing, but rather the fact that two other members chose to rate the post as funny!
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Apr 2, 2016
Zroiron Hopefully Nevada orders will fall in line behind California orders!�
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