1/1/2015
guest Tomorrow Trina Solar (TSL) is having their Q2 earnings call at 8am EST.
Press Releases | Trina Solar
They updated their Q2 guidance on 8/8/13 (Press Releases | Trina Solar).
Btw, is anyone a big fan of TSL and know them really well? If so, what's their competitive advantage?�
1/1/2015
guest +1! Only thing I know is they have JAN15 Calls
Im still in also With thoose sleepy. I Also have some REC and SCTY.�
1/1/2015
guest I was actually going to say that Trina Solar's competitive advantage is that it has J15 options, options trade at $0.01 increments, and the stock price has been a laggard in the Chinese solar industry. For these reasons I have bought some J15 $10 options today as well as some Mar14 $8 options.
I really don't know that much about TSL other than:
1. High quality Chinese manufacturer, one of the most established companies.
2. High exposure to Europe, supplies panels to SCTY. Should benefit from EU - China deal.
3. Needs an EPC business.
4. 2nd highest supply capacity after YGE. I have a feeling that this will greatly benefit TSL in a year or two if the economy picks up.
5. Relatively good balance sheet; significantly better than YGE.
6. Looks like China is going to force/encourage consolidation in the solar industry and TSL should be in a good position to pick up some cheap capacity assets. May be able to pick up some of STP's assets as well, probably along with some debt too if that company is dissolved.
7. Brand name
8. It is trading lower than it was before it preannounced good earnings. It also announced a big 300MW deal last week, and started the day really well before tanking later.
With a good earnings report, I feel like this stock can take off. At the same time I fear that it will pull a JKS and start the day up 15% and finish up only 4%; and then tank the next few days. With a bad report, it will probably tank even more. But the report shouldn't be bad, because when you preannounce a good ER, you only give half the good news. When you preannounce a bad ER, you give out all of the bad news.�
1/1/2015
guest GL Sleepy
I am been bit way to much lately i couldnt get myself to pull the trigger on TSL. It just seems like the market has been out to castrate Solar. I hope this turns it around though. My CSIQ, SOL and Spwr are all getting hammered.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry for the OT but...
Since we have a lot of stock-tuned people on the forums. Is there much history of "acronym confusion" causing significant "unusual market behavior"?
Context: TSL vs. TSLA�
1/1/2015
guest TSL had a loss of .47. The pre market seems to like the report. We will see.
Not sure brianman, it does make it easy to flip between charts though by just deleting or adding the "A"�
1/1/2015
guest funny how Earning play out, here is what i see.
TSL looses money and stock goes up since they had a small beat (still a big loss) and guided for less loss.
I guess the TSL share holders were already ok with the company losing money for a while.
CSIQ and SPWR share holders were looking for unstoppable growth and their earning didnt guide it so they tanked regardless of the big income beats.�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, it is strange. I have some otm LEAPS in csiq, yge, and tsl. Trying to figure out if I should sell them today.�
1/1/2015
guest i wouldnt. LEAPs you have plenty of time on. Yes the solar market is beat down right now. and might take another small beating is SOL reports bad next week. But since you have all that time i would hold fast. solar is growing quickly right now and you will see a larger return if you hold off.�
1/1/2015
guest It may have something to do how much each stock went up already YTD.
SCTY = over 200% before ER.
CSIQ = over 200% before ER.
SPWR = over 250% before ER.
now we have TSL = only 70%
maybe?�
1/1/2015
guest Yes, this is it. This is also the reason I bought TSL options yesterday. It was a laggard compared to other solar stocks.
SOL was also a laggard leading up to June and then the stock doubled in a month. TSL will not double from here that quickly, but it could potentially outperform the other Chinese solars in the short term.�
1/1/2015
guest It does have alot to do with it, if not all of it. As I said it was growth. SPWR got killed almost purely on Q3 guidance because they sand bagged it. People saw high growth last quarter and they expect it to continue as the share price fallowed suit. Once that trend appears to be broken (sandbagged Q3 guidance) everyone takes their profits and jumps ship and looks for the next best thing.
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Wow i am shocked by the lack of movement in the TSL options.
I almost think something is wrong. I see trading on the yahoo page for Jan14 (with no price movements) but on my brokerage account no trading at all.�
1/1/2015
guest This is one of the reasons I invested in TSL. We install lots of both CSIQ and TSL and their quality is identical. They are both also scoring large utility scale contracts so management is really the only differentiator, which I have to admit I haven't researched to great depths. I'm just going off of what I know is going on in the industry as an end integrator. These two brands are tops in my eyes when it comes to price-quality. SPWR is a better panel technology wise however it has an extremely high premium. I'm actually impressed they are still in business when it comes to pricing. They really sell their best panels in the world well. Most of my customers won't even consider SPWR because of the premium, however by paying attention to their possessions I have a good feel for when I can press the SPWR sale.�
1/1/2015
guest Thank you theshadows! Very informative! Good to hear from People who are in the industry.
Talking about industry, the Whole green sector went green today. So weird how they follow eachother.�
1/1/2015
guest Except SCTY.�
1/1/2015
guest I bought some SCTY options at the end of the day because it has been a laggard.�
1/1/2015
guest I bought some SCTY options awhile back that are down about 4k or so ... about 60 percent (ouch) they are Jan options ... wish SCTY would start climbing back up sometime soon ... I wish SCTY had 2015 options.�
1/1/2015
guest Do you have an PPS estimate for SCTY? Also, are these options long term or near term?
I am tempted to get into Solar City at these levels, but only because its down ~25% from earlier this month, and its ER really didn't seem that bad. All solar stocks appear to have dropped substantially this month without necessarily under-performing in their earnings reports (at least not on the surface). Are people under the impression that this is just profit taking because of the massive gains this year, or is there another potential reason (like expectations being too high and leading to a sell off)? TSL's earnings report seems to have kick started a nice upward trend today for the Chinese solars - would it be enough though to reverse the downward trend we've been seeing this last month?�
1/1/2015
guest I did a short-term swing play by buying TSL and SCTY today at market open thinking both would gain because of TSL's nice ER. Got burned by SCTY but TSL worked out. Closed both positions at end of day because was concerned SCTY was acting so differently than rest of the solar stocks. I'm concerned there's something going on like a big holder liquidating but I don't know over how long, or some kind of short movement.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm still an options noob but my gut feeling is that the volume was really low on their options because everyone was watching to see what would happen. My leaps caught up though in the last 30 minutes of trading. It looks like all expirations December on had really thin trading today.�
1/1/2015
guest SolarShitty has had a bad, bad few weeks. I hope you guys are right and they will recover. I have some Oct 17 contracts that are still in the money but I'm on the edge of dumping them. Anything significant on the horizon that could turn the tide before Oct 17?�
1/1/2015
guest I just bought some J14 options because I thought that SCTY has been beaten down recently and trying to catch a falling knife. I don't particularly like investing in this company, because it is impossible to put a value on the stock. Buy low sell high, I hope.�
1/1/2015
guest CSIQ up 8% today for no other reason than it is really freaking cheap - this after going up 5% yesterday. I am seriously worried that we are entering a short-term (2 month?) correction phase in the market, but I still pulled the trigger on solar two days ago; I couldn't pass up on the huge discounts. I am still a little worried with the Fed and everything, but I am ready to buy more if prices go down further.
Crazy world of investing in solar. Even at market open today it looked like the sector was going to come down hard today, only to do a huge turnaround 5 minutes later. Lots and Lots of uncertainty, volatility, and risk.
On Monday I bought some TSL, SOL, CSIQ, and SPWR. I bought some SCTY yesterday as well. I hope that solar starts making another run soon.�
1/1/2015
guest Got some tsl which I trippled. I really wanted the sep10 call, but was to late since im on holiday in Spain. Shame I didnt, theyre up 800%�
1/1/2015
guest sucks i missed out on the TSL run. I was looking at the new Jan 15 $15 options but i wonder how much more room TSL has to run.
Any insight?�
1/1/2015
guest Wow, my jan15 15$ didnt move yesterday, doubled today. However TSL has a long way to go, but JAN15 in solar is pretty nice risk/reward�
1/1/2015
guest that is true but right now the prices are probably inflated unless the stock continues up for another day or two. If it does then the price right now wouldnt seem so crazy, but if it pulls back i expect that price to tumble pretty quick.�
1/1/2015
guest I think that TSL will either be at $30 or $3 by J15, a lot of risk for sure.
I bought a J15 $10 option for $1.56 on Monday and sold a J15 $12 option for $1.80 today. I pocketed $.24 and have potential for another $2 risk free return.
Obviously I would be better off holding the $10 J15 call naked if I though the stock will go to $30, but I have learned my lesson from being too greedy. Slow and steady wins the race.�
1/1/2015
guest Anyone here have any confidence that TSL will bump again tomorrow or is the consensus that the run has stopped post ER?
Jeff�
1/1/2015
guest I am holding off to see if the market tanks due to the Fed report here in about 15min. If the Market holds steady today i might buy a few TSL15 $15s.
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Bought some Jan15 $15s on the small bounce the Fed report caused.�
1/1/2015
guest It looks like the market rebounded very quickly.�
1/1/2015
guest Ya it was another fed report saying they are still on holding pattern. Looks like they are going to wait for the Jobs report in a few weeks.
That being said, the Next real scare for the Solar Sector is the SOL earnings report. Rarely does a report ever get postponed unless its a bad sign of things to come.�
1/1/2015
guest Well I was in TSL today but I hit the wrong button on my stop loss and ended up selling my position, idiot me... Cost me like $80 between the market diff and fees so at least it wasn't a huge oops... Note to self...Naturally I can't buy in again without the risk of my account getting locked out...
Jeff�
1/1/2015
guest I have loaded up with sep calls in SOL. I will sell them before ER if short interest is to low.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. Fortunately SOL doesn't report until the 30th so hopefully this won't be a reason for investors to sell off on solar for at least another week. LDK report on the 27th and JASO reports on the 29th. As far as I'm aware, no other solar companies are reporting before then. I'm banking on further run up from here.�
1/1/2015
guest Solar also just got a welcomed boost by the market action. All the stock i fallow (SOL, CSIQ, SPWR and now TSL) were all stuck at resistant point. TSL @9$ SOL at 4.25 as so on. this market jump helped pop them all through those prices.�
1/1/2015
guest Hey guys, looks like SCTY is showing a lot of weakness on the charts. It's below the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages and could re-test the 32.66 low it reached in June. If the 32.66 level doesn't hold, that will not be good for the stock.
�
1/1/2015
guest Out Of Ideas And In Debt, Spain Sets Sights On Taxing The Sun - Forbes Some places..�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, SOL, CSIQ, SPWR all up today...SolarShitty down...�
1/1/2015
guest I've been wondering if the decrease in SCTY has been due to the increase in the interest rates on US treasuries, resulting from the recent fed minutes. The way that I see it, SCTY is one option to park your money for 20 years if you're a very large investor such as Goldman Sachs. When interest rates were low, it was easier for SCTY to get a huge loan to use for setting up leases because they were offering several percent more than the market. Now, with interest rates up, it will be harder for SCTY to acquire large lines of credit and it will push the cost up to the end consumer. Do you think this is a valid concern?�
1/1/2015
guest I think solar city is trying to form a base around $34. There was major accumulation from $35-38, and I'm guessing those who bought around there are producing some significant support. Solar City was added to the Russell 3000 index around $22. I don't think any funds that bought around $22 are selling yet. No-one has a large enough position in Solar City for them to have to sell to rebalance, and anyone investing in Solar City is expecting it will go much higher.
Very little significant buying is happening anywhere at the moment and the only people moving the majority of stocks are retail investors, or momentum traders, who are either toying with technical analysis, or selling due to being spooked. I suspect Solar City won't fall below $30, but anything is possible is a major market sell off occurs.�
1/1/2015
guest Don't know if it's significant, but I got a call today from SolarCity that my scheduled installation for this Saturday must move to next week, on a regular work day, because "we don't do weekend installs any longer". Could it mean slow down in financing so schedules are starting to open up, or a cost savings mandate (I assume they have to pay workers more for weekend hours). Or a combination of both?�
1/1/2015
guest i have been holding some jan. 14 , 50 calls, which i bought when scty was around 47. (oh why did i not put that money into tesla???) I know, my timing is impeccable. Since I am down about 85%, does anyone have any advice on what to do. I have considered bailing many times but it almost seems, like I have lost so much, what does it really matter to lose the last little bit.
I am new to the 'game' so any advice or crystal ball readers would be appreciated.�
1/1/2015
guest Sell almost all. Keep one or two and if it pops you won't feel like you missed out on everything. Most likely they will expire worthless so it's good to dump 90% and put them into a trade you have faith in.�
1/1/2015
guest thanks mershaw, that was definitive...and i think i will do just that monday.�
1/1/2015
guest How many options are you holding? You have plenty of time for the stock to recover, and are already down 85 %. Unless you can't afford to lose the rest, or will need the money in the near future, I wouldn't sell. At the moment, the options are very biased towards the bears because the stock has lost about 30 percent in 3 weeks. However, the stock has gained significantly more over three weeks in the past, and could easily do so in the near future. Solar city will report earnings before your options expire. Additionally, Elon mentioned he expects Solar City to be cash flow positive before the end of the year. This, or just about any positive announcements could be a significant catalyst. I would wait a few weeks to see what the stock does.
Stocks, SCTY, SOLARCITY, Relative Strgength Index, rsi, SCTY stock, SCTY RSI, technical analysis, rsi calculator�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. I never consider selling options that are 85% Down, its allways so annoying if they get in the Money. Also SCTY has an ATH on 52 or something, so its very possible to get there.�
1/1/2015
guest SCTY has been a laggard, so it might rebound in the near future. I still think there are better opportunities in solar right now, specifically US listed Chinese solar companies. I just sold a bunch of TSLA to buy several thousand shares of SOL at $3.95 just four days ago and it is already up to $4.65. TSL is also up 50% this week.
I am not saying to buy these companies now, because they just had a big run up and you never know what might happen next. But in the future when you see Chinese solars correcting 30% - 40% in less than a month, you might want to look into buying these stocks AS LONG AS WE ARE NOT HEADING INTO A RECESSION.
That said, SCTY has been a laggard and it is most likely next in line to rebound. But I am not sure about this, because the stock is kind of expensive, whereas all of the Chinese solars are really freaking cheap.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah im trying this month aswell With alot of SOL Calls�
1/1/2015
guest I went with J14 and A14 calls this time. I tried to buy some Sep calls for $0.20 when the bid/ask was $0.15/$0.25 but nobody wanted to sell me any. I bought a few thousand shares as well.
SOL has been on a good tear lately so we are going to need spectacular ER to get this stock above $6. They need to give out strong guidance for Q3 and I hope they do. They postponed their ER by 10 days, so it is either a bad thing or very good thing. Chances are it is bad, but I am hopeful that it is good. Since the stock has been booming for the past week it, I am hopeful that some people have some insider information causing the stock to go up.�
1/1/2015
guest yes, I expect good guidance. Theyre polysilicon would make them able to make panels at much lower cost then the rest hopefully. Have you checked out JKS btw?
PS! SOL is having shareholders Meeting on monday 26th.�
1/1/2015
guest I am holding 10 contacts....cost about 1000 each at the time. Appreciate the response , some good points to consider.
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Thanks for the advice sleepyhead. Might hold on a bit trying to catch a bit of a run up.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks for all of this I am in a very similar situation. My calls are Jan 54ish ... I think I have 25 of them and since they have already lost so much value I am going to hold them. I am also considering buying some more calls. Maybe some that are ATM or a little OTM.�
1/1/2015
guest I REALLY want to get behind solar city again.
However, as solar panels keep coming down in price, I think we are soon approaching a time where people who want solar just BUY the panels themselves. What advantage does leasing through solar city really give you, except maybe a little less work?�
1/1/2015
guest Buying a solar system requires a lot of cash upfront which most people don't have or don't want to spend all at once (ie., they'd rather keep them in investments). SolarCity (and others too) offer financing or Power Purchase agreements with no money down. That's the main reason you'd choose them over buying your own system.
Also, the cost of a solar system is not just the panels, inverter, mounting racks, etc. but also the design, permits, installation (roofers) of panels/racks, installation (electrician) to connect to grid, monitoring, etc.�
1/1/2015
guest I've been hearing a lot of you guys talk about Chinese stocks. Here's my take as I have lived in China and have witness first hand what the country's investment fields look like.
Investing in Chinese companies is one of the most dangerous moves you can make. Although China is the world's 2nd largest economy, many of their business practices are questionable and unethical. The Chinese love to talk and trumpet rumors, they also like to exaggerate a facade that is beneficial to their business and there isn't a way you can confirm, verify or check those data--unless you are there on the ground. If you have not seen the institutions' production line yourself via visiting the factory.. I would advise against investing into that particular company. You can lose your investment overnight so be careful and do your research VERY CAREFULLY when that company is stationed in China.�
1/1/2015
guest Solar panels are not still coming down in price. They bottomed Q4 2012. I have had price increases from my suppliers every quarter since then. And I just talked to two of them this week to ask for the price forecast for next quarter and they are going up again.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree with you that there is a lot of risk here and fraud and/or simply exaggerating the truth is very much a possibility with these Chinese solar companies. But these companies are priced so cheaply that I am willing to take a chance. I do not recommend putting a lot of money in these companies, but if you put 1% or 2% of your portfolio then you will be ok even if they go bankrupt.
Actually, I am taking a chance on these companies because I figure that 2 years from now they will either be 5 baggers or they will go bankrupt. I see the chance of bankrupcy at less than 50%, so the odds are in my favor. Imagine if a casino gave you 3 to 1 odds on only one hand of blackjack; how much would you be willing to bet on that hand with those odds?
Thanks for your input on the solar market. I have read about panel prices stabilizing and even going up a little, but it is good to get confirmation from someone in the field.
This is why I said that not manufacturing your own panels is a risk for Solar City when others would say that this was their competitive advantage. It worked in their favor when panel prices were falling.
Higher panel prices and higher interest rates are a big blow to Solar City's business model and that is why the stock price has been suffering. It is impossible to tell how this will all play out so for now I will stay away from SCTY. I still have one small bull-call spread in SCTY but will not be opening anything else up unless SCTY goes into the mid 20s.�
1/1/2015
guest Imagen when the EV revolution in cars comes. Then people will realise how much solar we need. The eletricity bill will get higher, and people will invest in Solar, hopefully on their roof and in the stock aswell.
buy and hold, or by leap!�
1/1/2015
guest Just got on the SCTY train today. I sold SOME of my Tesla and will park it in SCTY. The levels were a little high for my taste and I'm hoping that SCTY has a great Q3.�
1/1/2015
guest umm so SOL is issuing 500million shares???? - ReneSola Announces Results of Annual General Meeting - Yahoo! Finance�
1/1/2015
guest It appears that they're just authorized to offer that many shares in case they choose to do so in a secondary offering. But raising the total possible from 500m to 600m is strange when they only have 86.38m shares outstanding.�
1/1/2015
guest another market manipulation this morning? this is sickening...�
1/1/2015
guest Im buying�
1/1/2015
guest why would you? down today doesnt mean up tomorrow, especially when you see how targeted this solar are by the big edge funds... Heck SPWR last earning was great yet it tanked 14% the next day....�
1/1/2015
guest I'm buying too.�
1/1/2015
guest Because this uncertainty in the middle east is not passing. And like Tesla, I think Solar is a great buy then. Why its down I have no idea. I am buying LEAPS thou.�
1/1/2015
guest It is down so much because LDK missed the one analyst's expectations with its earnings results today. This is a completely ridiculous reason to sell off Chinese solars, because LDK is a loser and essentially bankrupt, so nobody wants to buy their panels (since the company may not be in business to honor warranty). They also said that they will not be able to make a coupon payment this Wednesday, aka bankrupt.
I am still worried about overall market correction being only halfway through. I will wait and buy some more solars when things get uglier.�
1/1/2015
guest Same. Solar got slaughtered but i am not am willing to bet this is not the end of the down turn. I am going to wait a bit to buy. Not like i have much choice as i will be in the air from the time trading opens till the time it ends tomorrow. So i hope i am right on tomorrow being another down day.
Also to add in. We still have two more earnings reports in the next few days that could be negative and only drive solar further down.�
1/1/2015
guest good to know. I have been slaughtered on some solar city jan options and I would love to get some more options near the bottom before the inevitable rebound. If they are open I will get the mar 2014 options. I wish they had the 2015 leaps available.�
1/1/2015
guest What other than SOL do we have?�
1/1/2015
guest JASO tomorrow.�
1/1/2015
guest YGE on Friday as well.�
1/1/2015
guest and then SOL on friday. So i guess we have 3 more reports to endure.
We are up on recovery mode this morning, but i am still going to hold off and wait for everyone else to report before i make any moves since i dont think they are going to be boosters. But sleepy you probably have more info on these guys reporting so if you think we are looking good for their reports i might jump in here. I have a 2 hour layover to make my choice.�
1/1/2015
guest I really don't know anything at all about JASO. I am not a big fan of YGE, because even though it is the largest panel producer it has way too much debt on its balance sheet. I think that the company will give out good guidance though and am hoping for the market to treat this report favorably; afterall YGE has a ton of exposure to Europe just like TSL. I prefer TSL over YGE though because of smaller debt load.
As far as SOL goes, this is one of my favorite picks but so was/still is CSIQ and that stock has been hit hard since its earnings release. I like SOL because of its relatively low debt load, it just put its poly manufacturing plant back in service on July 1 after upgrading it (this helps especially with Chinese implemented tariffs on poly imports from US and South Korea), recently added to Tier 1 list, is now beginning operations in Japan, has a lot of exposure to Europe which is not as much a negative anymore after Chine-EU deal for minimum ASP's.
There are risks with SOL as well, such as its reliance on EU, lack of geographic diversification, and lack of reputation that a Trina Solar might have in the marketplace.
I really don't recommend buying these stocks to try to play earnings: SPWR had good earnings and the stock tanked, CSIQ had ok earnings and it tanked, FSLR had bad earnings and it tanked, TSL had ok earnings and it skyrocketed, JKS had really good earnings and it is flat. None of this makes any sense. I have a feeling that SOL will have good earnings, but this doesn't mean that the stock will go up. SOL has been on a good run lately and it is hard to know what will happen in the short run.
If you want to invest in these companies then you should buy and plan to hold for 2 years. Playing the earnings releases is straight up gambling.
edit: SOL was supposed to announce earnings two weeks ago, but they postponed it at the last minute. This doesn't make much sense to me, but it could be either a very bad thing, neutral, or possibly a good thing (least likely outcome). Hard to say why that did that. I would guess that they needed more time to crunch the numbers after spotting a discrepancy.�
1/1/2015
guest The floor is dropping on SCTY, my stop loss triggered today. I'm out. not looking good.�
1/1/2015
guest Pentagon just awarded $7 billion worth of alternative energy contracts and one of the beneficiaries is Sunpower:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/27/pentagon-awards-massive-7-billion-solar-power-cont.aspx�
1/1/2015
guest
The SOL earnings postponing is what has me nervous. As you say, I think there's probably a better chance that it is perceived as a bad thing rather than a good thing (even if it is neutral, such as an accounting error). Of the solar companies, I currently hold SPWR, CSIQ, TSL stock and SOL, TSL and CSIQ options. My SOL and TSL options expire in Sept while CSIQ expires Jan 14. My plan is to sell my SOL and TSL options tomorrow, regardless of how well JASO does. I just think there's too much of a chance that the reaction to SOL's earning is negative and the options won't have time to recover before expiring.
On another note, Solar City does look tempting at this level. Question is, do you try to catch the falling knife or wait until it starts rebounding and miss out on a percentage of the uptrend?�
1/1/2015
guest Don't try catching a falling knife. I tried last year with aapl on mult occasions and it doesn't work. Wait at least until SCTY recaptures some of the short term moving averages such as 10 day and 20 day. Also, with the uncertainty of a conflict in Syria, the trend in the overall market is unclear, ie keep your positions small until a trend develops.�
1/1/2015
guest You right, SCTY is a falling knife, I'm glad my stop loss kicked me out with some profits. know that it broke the 32.60, the question is what is the bottom, what you guys think? $26?�
1/1/2015
guest $27 is a reasonable target, with support from early May and the 200 day moving average...but you can only identify a bottom after the fact.�
1/1/2015
guest In that case I should dump my SCTY Oct '13 $20 calls that I got for $7.40. I'm nervous of SCTY going lower and lower. What is on the horizon between now and Oct 19 that may reverse the direction, anyone dare to speculate?�
1/1/2015
guest Like I have been saying for the past two months, SCTY is a black box when it comes to valuation and there is no way of telling how much this company is worth today. That is why I choose not to invest in it even though it is one of the best solar companies around. There are just so many other solar companies with cheap valuations that are pretty straightforward to value, hence I invest in those instead.�
1/1/2015
guest Am I the only one here scooping up solar companies at a discount? Some of these valuations are ridiculous; the only way you can justify the valuation is if we enter another recession. But if the economy continues improving so will these stocks.
SPWR at $21? Sign me up please!!! There is no where to go but up for this stock.�
1/1/2015
guest To be honest I have been focusing on tesla these last few days. I have been considering picking up a few more solar leaps.�
1/1/2015
guest Hey sleepyhead. Tell me you're going for solarcity too, because that's the one I've been scooping up. I look at the chart and vomit, but everything else says buy. On the chart it just broke through the 100 day moving average and seems to have broken to the downside. If I were to just go by the chart, I'd expect a long bar down tomorrow and a resulting price of 28 dollars. However, I don't think that's going to be the case for SCTY.
As far as I can tell, the headwinds for the company going forward are going to be the increased borrowing rate as long term money in safer assets can compete with a long term investment in solarcity. Since they require such large cash amounts, I think that the main loss in price from 38 to 32 was not the result of other solars doing poorly and SCTY matching it, I think it was the result of higher interest rates. I also think that we might see costs go up on solar panels as some chinese solar panel companies go out of business permanently.
Those are my downsides. However, I see tremendous upsides because they have been signing up people like crazy, but more importantly they have been signing up large businesses and government operations. They have legitimatized their operation by attracting walmart and the government, and that adds stability to the company in much the same way as when tesla did a secondary at 92 and paid back the gov loan. I don't see the headwinds above warranting a drop in price equivalent to 10 dollars per share. I see fair value still around 37, about a 10% discount to its price at earnings based on the higher interest rate issue. Furthermore, while we're on interest rates, I see these interest rates as high and most likely going to come down to 2.5% for the 10 year as the fear over the end of QE abates a little, which means that SCTY improves its edge.
I've increased my SCTY position by 40% by buying at 35, 34.5 and 31.95. I probably won't be buying any more unless we see a break down to 28 in which case I'll grab a little more at 28.90, but mainly because I'm maxed out on margin at this point. The part that worries me the most is that I can't get a solid sense of what SCTY valuation is and neither can anyone else and so 28 seems like a possibility out of fear. The reason I don't think this will happen is that I was looking at short analytics today and I think that the nearly-doubling of short selling today makes it harder to force the price down. They are already carrying a 10-20% annual fee to be short, and if it didn't break on the assault today, I think we might hold the line at 32, with a pop to 36 or 37 on good news. I just wish that the management here was as competent as elon at managing short sellers.
Feel free to comment. I didn't get any bites early on my interest rate hypothesis.�
1/1/2015
guest mershaw - Everything you wrote is correct, except that I would worry more about long term interest rates and not what happens in the next few months.
You wrote, "I can't get a solid sense of what SCTY valuation is and neither can anyone else..." and that is why I am not a fan of investing in SCTY. The only reason to invest in this company is if you plan on holding the shares for a long time.
You also wrote, "I also think that we might see costs go up on solar panels as some chinese solar panel companies go out of business permanently." If you think that this will happen then you should be investing in those Chinese solar producers that will survive.
I like your strategy of investing in laggards though and I am sure that these trades will work out for you in the long run; just be patient. I will stick to SPWR and my favorite Chinese players.�
1/1/2015
guest As mentioned in a few posts before I dipped into Solarcity using some of my Tesla proceeds. This is definitely a long term play and I think the downpressure is due to overall market sentiment and the fact that Tesla is getting so much attention right now without people really realizing how these two companies go hand in hand. Word on the street is that SCTY and TSLA trade in lock step which is for the most part true with the exception of recent times. Tesla has been getting a SERIOUS amount of press and I think the attention is overweight on TSLA.
I think once people wise up and realize that SCTY installs solar panels for Tesla (superchargers, factory, and customers) and the fact that SCTY is using Tesla chargers. We'll see SCTY make the bull run it had. The plans are there and the attention to Solar will come back.�
1/1/2015
guest I am, also added some March calls on CSIQ�
1/1/2015
guest I'm still down quite a bit on SPWR�
1/1/2015
guest Which is why it's the time to buy! haha. I'm in the same boat.�
1/1/2015
guest Opinions on this? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/solarcity-to-raise-223-5-million-selling-shares-notes.html?cmpid=yhoo
Elon and Lyndon buying should be a positive, still dilutive though, what do you guys think?�
1/1/2015
guest It's great news. It is essentially a TSLA move, but what will matter is the reasoning for the secondary offering. My guess is for more rapid expansion and deployment of Capex funds. In addition to this, it creates a price floor and it alleviates some of the long term pressure if you get another round of buying for long term investors.
Dilution isn't too high given the number of shares outstanding. I feel like this is more of a symbolic and delivery on execution play.�
1/1/2015
guest Here's the S-1/A they filed this morning. I like to read these in full.
SolarCity - Registration Statement�
1/1/2015
guest And how did you like it DaveT?�
1/1/2015
guest I'm planning on reading it later today.�
1/1/2015
guest Why would they offer at a higher price to share price? I think that is totally an elon move, essentially saying the shares are so massively undervalued that he doesn't mind tacking on a little extra. I see this as such a positive move!�
1/1/2015
guest big retreat in solar after this after noon. dont see any news that would be the cause of it.�
1/1/2015
guest People might be afraid if earnings are bad?
Anyone else but me got Sol sep calls? I think they will do good. Especially since it seem to plan a secondary offering after earnings and not before.
btw would love to hear your thoughts on scty when your done Dave.�
1/1/2015
guest I picked up some Sep SOL calls as well. I didn't want to post this during market hours, but in my opinion I think that SOL might have blowout earnings. This is just my somewhat educated guess, I could be very wrong so I didn't want anyone buying a ton of options or shares and losing money because of me.
I feel like they are going to have blowout earnings, because analysts have them losing the same/slightly more money in Q3 vs. Q2. I don't think this is reasonable at all and these analysts are going to have to revise their estimates.
I haven't done enough research, but SOL did say that their production costs are going to go down another couple of cents in the second half. $0.02 is 4% and that is an additional 4% of gross margin on top of the 5%-6% that they preannounced for Q2 (vs. negative gross margin in Q1). Therefore we are looking at 10% gross margin in Q3, and it might be higher because panel prices have gone up in Europe due to negotiated deal. Remember they opened their poly plant on 7/1/13 which is the first day of Q3. Q3 guidance IMO has to be really, really good. I would expect them to break even in Q3 or at least be closer to break even than the analyst consensus of a -$0.32 loss.
The risk is that I am wrong (duh) and that the market was/is expecting similar results and guidance as I am and the stock will sell off when management doesn't deliver such guidance. They have a lot of exposure to EU and maybe because of the 7GW limit they will not be able to sell as many panels in Europe as they would have liked.
@bhuwan - If you buy a stock then you should be ready to buy the stock at a lower price. If you liked SPWR at $25 then you should be jumping all over it at $21 - that is my investment philosophy. If you were just looking to play SPWR before Q2 for a potential short squeeze then you should have gotten out of the stock on the day after the earnings announcement when it was obvious that there will not be a short squeeze.
@Norse - I also bought some other calls such as SPWR J15 and TSL J15. I bought some SOL A14 and Sep13 for speculation. also some CSIQ M14 calls too, I then bought some YGE today A14 and some Sep $4 calls at $0.45 when the stock was at $4.22. This looked really cheap to me and the price seemed too good to be true so I jumped on it. All I need is for the stock to go up 5% to break even. With earnings tomorrow YGE will either go up 10% or more and my calls will double or the stock goes down and I lose 50%. I think the risk is to the upside on YGE though.
The problem with solar is that there is a lot of risk and none of them have any LEAPS (expcept for SPWR and TSL), so even though I am sure that CSIQ will do really well in a good economy, I am not sure that the stock will be able to climb fast enough to make any money on the 6 month calls. If they had J15's available I would be all over those.
Time will tell, but the most likely scenario is that these solars start taking off like crazy and then we will be regretting that we didn't take more risk. Then they will crash again 30% - 40% and we will be staying away from them again only to watch them go up 100% again. Rinse and repeat. This has been the story with solar stocks and sometimes this cycle takes a month or two, and sometimes 6 months. It is hard to tell when to buy these options. I think we are still a little early, but I am ready to buy more in a month or two if prices continue to go down.�
1/1/2015
guest SOL down 5% after hours?�
1/1/2015
guest Now its up 2%. Don't look at AH movements, because it is extremely low volume and somebody was just dumb enough to put in a market order; and since AH is very illiquid, he ended up selling very cheaply.�
1/1/2015
guest Ya I know after hours if hard to ready i was just confused for two reasons. One is that i actually never see AH numbers on SOL when i just Yahoo real quick. First time i ever had and they were down big % like some news came out that we didnt see.
It was probably more volume then usual AH for them which is why Yahoo posted the AH numbers for the first time i have ever seen.
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Oh and just to let people know. I have been Holding SOL Jan $5 and $7.50 options since $3.80 about a month ago.�
1/1/2015
guest Earnings Preannouncement
I believe that there were 3 companies that preannounced earnings (correct me if I am wrong) TSL, YGE, and SOL. So far all of the solar companies had "bad" results from earnings except for TSL, which had a blowout quarter.
When you preannounce bad earnings you tell the whole truth, when you preannounce good earnings you only tell half the story and keep something good in your pocket for actual earnings. I believe that the odds are tipped slightly in favor of YGE and SOL having very good earnings tomorrow. Only incompetent management would preannounce good earnings and then watch its stock tank after the actual earnings report because they had nothing positive left to say.
Odds are good, so I placed a few bets. I wouldn't be surprised to see solars crash tomorrow post earnings either, but I feel like there is a better chance for these stocks to go up especially after the recent sell-off in solar.�
1/1/2015
guest Sleepy, what kind of J15 LEAPS do you have for SPWR if you don't mind sharing? I bought some $25s today. I was tempted to go higher but figured $25 was a good balance for my objectives.�
1/1/2015
guest 1. Yahoo never posted AH or pre-market prices for SOL because nobody cares about this stock and there is always 0 volume in AH. If the volume was 1 yahoo would show AH price. go to marketwatch.com for better AH information including volume.
2. Good job of buying these options on a pull back last month. I also bought a lot of shares and some options when SOL was at $3.90. Be ready to sell your $7.50s because it is doubtful that they end up in the money. A strategy that I have now started employing, thanks to ongba, is to buy the $5 calls like you did for $0.60 (I assume that is what you paid) and then after the stock goes up to try to sell the $7.50s for $0.60 to create a delayed construct bull call spread. SOL is a bad example, because it would be easier to do this by shorting the $6 call, but they don't have those available so the $7.50 call may never get up to $0.60 in value. You can then forget about this trade and close it out a day or two before expiry, but since you got your capital back you can now deploy it elsewhere.
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I wanted the $25, but open interest is way too high on those so I opted for $20 (don't really like goin ITM, but wanted to try something different) and some $30. $30 is a little higher than I wanted, but I figured that if SPWR goes up a little I will quickly sell the $35 LEAPS for the same price hopefully in order to create a risk free bull call spread and hope that if finishes ITM.�
1/1/2015
guest thanks for the heads up Sleepy. I have been planning on holding all Calls until Q3 earnings in the fall. Hoping for two good jumps from earnings would get me a good return on the 7.50s�
1/1/2015
guest Hum, that's not something I thought about when I bought them...High open interest=high premiums? Other than that it looked like my thought process was ok, haha.�
1/1/2015
guest I don't think it will affect premiums, if anything high OI means better liquidity and that is a positive for you.
I just don't like high OI, because that is what everyone is buying and I like doing what no one else is doing. There is a lot more incentive to manipulate price closer to the high OI strike prices than the low OI strikes. When it comes to LEAPS though this does not matter.
It is just a stupid strategy of mine that probably doesn't make much sense. I am a contrarian.�
1/1/2015
guest I just read through SCTY's S-1/A filing from this morning (SolarCity - Registration Statement). If you're a SCTY investor I highly recommend taking some time to read it.
Overall it looks like a standard secondary offering. The highlights:
- 2.8m common shares offered
- 420k additional common shares can be purchased by underwriters within 30 days of the offering
- some new articles have said SCTY plans to offer the shares at $33.69, but the S-1/A says that that number is just an estimate taken from the high/low of stock price on 8/27/13 (high was $34.50, low was 32.88, average is $33.69). I think the actual price is yet to be determined (probably closing stock price day before the offering actually happens).
- SCTY is also offering $100m in convertible notes (with an additional $15m if underwriters exercise option to do so)
- The convertible notes are due in 2018. I couldn't find much more detail on this.
Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive are planning to purchase 560k common shares in this offering (so that leaves 2.24m of the 2.8m shares offered left for others). Basically, they're purchasing 20% of the secondary offering (though not considering the additional 420k shares underwriters can purchase later). I would imagine Elon would be purchasing the vast majority (ie., 90%+) of the 560k shares.
I'm unclear how this will affect the stock price. Shares are diluted somewhat but not majorly, but the company receives much needed capital (roughly $190m-225m) to fund further expansion.
On a side note the prospectus shares a bit more ufo on their Paramount Solar acquisition: (note: this is separate from their secondary offering)
"On August 13, 2013, we entered into an asset purchase agreement with Paramount GR Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, and Paramount Energy Solutions, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, which we collectively refer to as �Paramount Solar,� pursuant to which, on the terms and subject to the satisfaction of the conditions set forth in the purchase agreement, we will acquire specified assets and liabilities of Paramount Solar. Under the terms of the purchase agreement, the consideration will consist of $116.3 million worth of shares of our common stock, subject to certain adjustments, and $3.7 million in cash consideration. The transaction is expected to be completed in September 2013, subject to customary closing conditions. For further details regarding the Paramount Solar transaction, see our Form 8-K filed on August 19, 2013, which is incorporated in this prospectus by reference."�
1/1/2015
guest Ah, ok. I was wondering as I always thought liquidity was good as it lowers the bid/ask spread, which was part of my reason for choosing the $25s. So I guess I did fine, haha. I'm just doing what everyone else is doing!
I'll keep doing what everyone else is doing and you keep doing what everyone else is doing and hopefully we both do fine�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks for all the info sleepy and DaveT! If you guys with calls are doing some business after ER I would appreciate if you posted or pm your suggestions before opening.
We saw with SPWR that we could cut the losses if we sold on opening.�
1/1/2015
guest Alright guys, I've got my own personal trading strategy for tomorrow morning regarding SOL and YGE. But I don't want to post it here publicly because I don't want to be blamed by those who might follow it and it doesn't work out. But I know there are some that have posted great info on this thread, and I'm willing to share the details with you since you've added value here. So, if you're interested and you've posted helpful info on this specific thread, PM me and I'll share with you my trading strategy for tomorrow.�
1/1/2015
guest Guys, I think most of us here know the risk of the game we are playing. No one would blame you if they followed one of your strategies without doing their own research and lost everything. The point of this thread is not to blindly copy strategies....but to share ideas so that we can all get better together and improve. If we kill this conversation by talking via PM or not posting strategies we will all miss out on a lot of opportunities to learn and make profit.
By the way: I'm currently only following SCTY enough to justify an investment. I'm currently long in shares and have bought some quite risky nov calls (bull call spread). I'm betting we won't break beneath 30$.... if I'm wrong things will get REALLY messy.
I've being looking at the other solar companies with interest over the last few months but I don't know enough about them to invest. I just can't really judge the differences between one panel manufacturer and the other, while SCTY is a whole different story and IMHO is probably the safest bet on solar in the long term (although probably not as potentially explosive as the other stocks in the short term).�
1/1/2015
guest Let`s do this SOL. Over 50% of my options portoflio is SOL. And 90% is Solar, dont got YGE tho.�
1/1/2015
guest SOL had a great quarter and is looking to open up around $5.00 or +14%. Do you think this is the beginning of a break out?
This article I read from a week ago said that the stock may reach $7 - $8 if it does exactly what it has done over the past week and including today. SOL is discussed on page 2.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12016516/2/5-stocks-under-10-set-to-soar.html
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SOL if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.25 to $4.50 a share and then once it clears its 52-week high at $4.85 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.09 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then SOL will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $7 to $8 a share.
Check, check, and check!
Anyone here believe SOL is heading towards $7-$8?�
1/1/2015
guest I have no idea. but I got so many Calls, I would really like to know. Hell, I even have 7.5sep Calls!
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
8/15/2013 5,022,464 2,159,369 2.325894
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/sol/short-interest#ixzz2dSULL88I�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats to all who played SOL earnings! It looks very good in the premarket.�
1/1/2015
guest I have it between 8-10 by year end which is why i loaded up on SOL $7.50s
obviously that is VERY bullish though.
Also looks like YGE was decent and they are up premarket, but by only 5%.
This could also give the other players (SPWR, CSIQ TSL, ect) a good boos today with two positive earnings calls.
I think after this earnings season you can see which solars are going to survive and thrive and which ones are going to die.�
1/1/2015
guest If you have a lot of calls then don't be afraid to offload a lot of them today for a big gain. If you can sell enough to cover your initial outlay then you will be able to ride the rest of the calls risk free.
If you only have a very small percentage (less than 2%) of your portfolio in SOL calls then feel free to get greedy and wait a few days, but be prepared to lose everything.
I have 40% of my 401(k) in SOL shares.�
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