Nov 10, 2014
Sunlight Why is the MX taking so long when so much of the complicated stuff will overlap with the MS? It is really only a different body and interior.
OK maybe the MS is consuming more time and money and effort than imagined but..............
I'm sure Tesla want the MX to be 'perfect' compared to the MS which had a lot of sympathetic early adopters (and Tesla fanboys..!) and could afford perfection 'on the run'.
Maybe, just maybe, the falcon doors are proving seriously tricky with the potential for bad press and reports and poor reliability in the real world.
Tesla may decide to make the late call to go with normal rear doors - perhaps much larger than normal (and powered to open and close) and spin the 'bad' publicity somehow.
What do you all reckon to this 'flight of fancy'.....?�
Nov 10, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney No. I think Elon Musk would rather delay and get it right than admit defeat. Since Tesla has the Model S, now with D variant, with decent margin, it has no reason to rush a problem-packed Model X to market.�
Nov 10, 2014
bonnie So basically, start the engineering over?
Won't. Happen.�
Nov 10, 2014
Johan What if it has no battery but a petrol V8?�
Nov 10, 2014
Citizen-T Everybody is so quick to blame the doors. Tesla hasn't given any indication that the doors have been a problem from an engineering standpoint. I think one time (a long time ago) he said something about getting them to seal right, but since then I haven't heard anything that makes me think the doors are a problem.
In fact, Elon was pretty clear during this ER that the problem isn't with the car at all, it is with the machines that make the car. He said they could be a handful of production Model X right now if they wanted to, but they want to build thousands of them, and they need more time to do that.�
Nov 10, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Exactly. Elon Musk mentioned it as an _example_ of an engineering challenge, but personally I feel that that was just a diversionary tactic used because so many people have assumed that the the falcon wing doors were a massive engineering challenge.�
Nov 10, 2014
tom66 I have word it'll be a 3-cylinder diesel hybrid powered by polar bear tears.�
Nov 10, 2014
Johan Nice
Sarcasm aside, my point is my suggested engine (or yours) would be as likely as Tesla loosing the falcon wing doors. They have committed to release in Q3 now. Don't forget Elon's incentive package...�
Nov 10, 2014
gavine Maybe the delay has to do with them waiting for the government to allow the side cameras in lieu of mirrors. Elon had said that deleting the mirrors would afford 5% more range. That's kind of huge and enough to make them wait if that is indeed the holdup. They can't enveil the final production car without mirrors if it will have them and vice versa.�
Nov 10, 2014
techmaven Actually, I was just thinking that there was a distinct possibility that Tesla started over with the Model X sometime this summer. With the extra delay and the launch of the "D" versions of the S before the X, there is a very real possibility that Tesla/Musk decided that they needed to essentially start over above the skateboard. The "D" versions of the S essentially provide the software and hardware validation of the drivetrain of the X. If the above the skateboard portions of the X were ready, then the X could ship this year or early next year.
Of course, it isn't a real completely start over from scratch. But maybe the decided to revisit old assumptions and backtrack significantly and work forward from a much earlier point.�
Nov 10, 2014
Phil Seastrand This!�
Nov 10, 2014
Aljohn All great speculation, wishes and such. At this time, I will trust Elon statement during the call, he seems to be fairly upright (with in reason in a public traded company).
Asked directly, Elon said... I para phrase: Manufacturing is really tough, if you want to be certain the final product is perfect. It is building enough to realize that there are 100 things going wrong that show the weakness of the manufacturing process. He also said the Falcon Wing door were not the culprit.
Given that no one has seen a Beta X driving on the California highways, then too few Beta test models exists to adequately test the X body (assume the Model S underpinnings). That said, we may see Beta's X traveling soon. Keep the cameras poised in California. Maybe there will be a Model X reveal before.... whishing, and hoping...�
Nov 10, 2014
RichardL Believe me, I am always on the lookout! I remember seeing a Model S beta on Highway 84 and how cool it looked...�
Nov 10, 2014
Cattledog I think doors play a part, AWD, cameras, a beautiful 2nd row seat, etc. and of course the seamless integration of all those systems. But what I really hope is they are developing a 1xx kWh battery for the X (and S).�
Nov 10, 2014
apacheguy If this were true, then at least the betas would be out by now.�
Nov 10, 2014
Citizen-T Why? Do you know what the requirements are for the Beta name to get stamped on a car? Maybe built via production intended machines is part of it.�
Nov 10, 2014
JohnQ While I'm sure Tesla's not sending the doors back to the drawing board, Elon's penchant for pushing engineering boundaries, sometimes for unnecessary items like the falcon door, creates challenges from a manufacturing standpoint. Design and engineering decisions can easily lead to some of the manufacturing and quality concerns that were alluded to on the call.�
Nov 10, 2014
anticitizen13.7 Given that the Alpha phase is nearly complete and Betas are being built, I believe this is an accurate assessment.
There's little chance that the Model X was substantially re-designed this summer, as the design was more or less frozen in Q2 from what I remember from the investor conference calls. I suspect that any major design changes would have occurred in summer of 2013.�
Nov 10, 2014
Barry Since the X is the same vehicle as the D, except for body style, seems likely.
They should know better than to count on the government to meet some kind of legislative timetable, just as we know not to believe Tesla's timetable :smile:
I have a trip to take next Spring where I was thinking of driving my new 85D rather than flying. However, I cannot count on having the vehicle at that time, despite a 2 month window.�
Nov 10, 2014
apacheguy No, because they aren't production vehicles. I'm merely stating that if they had the capacity to churn out a limited series of MX's right now, then they would have done so. It's clear that there is something else holding it up. Likely the side cameras requiring regulatory approval.�
Nov 10, 2014
Citizen-T I think if they didn't have the ability to churn out a limited series of MX's right now Elon wouldn't have said that they do on the ER.�
Nov 11, 2014
Trev Page Engineering on Model X is done. The delay is all about manufacturing. Tesla wants to have a much faster production ramp than Model S did so they have to make sure things are right from the beginning. Production ramp up on Model S was upwards of a year so they can't afford that kind of time scale. This fact is extremely important too when the model 3 arrives, they will need to ramp up even faster there.�
Nov 11, 2014
Sunlight Personally FWIW I believe the MX will come out with the falcon doors - just to set Tesla even further apart from run-of-the-mill.....
And all the other delay theories make sense too. Just can't help feeling that the doors are a part of the issue. I imagine Tesla want to get them perfect and repeatable for future cars - seems a waste to expend so much energy for one show-stopping feature on one model! I can imagine them on coupe versions; smaller SUVs; roadsters (especially).....
Can't wait to see the production version (if they actually arrive..?!)
By the way wrt some other comments, I don't believe re-engineering the MX for normal/sliding doors would be a big deal. The main change would be no huge cut-out in the roof! Maybe somewhere down the road, different doors will be offered as an option.�
Nov 11, 2014
bonnie I'm guessing you have not had to change dimensions on even one part. Just a small tolerance change has a ripple effect, much less a major design change.
Yes, it would be a big deal.�
Nov 11, 2014
Johan In recent interviews and on the last conference call Elon has spoken in length about his opinions on the challenges of great manufacturing and the importance of striving for perfection. If you think making 5 or 10 Xs is difficult, try making 500/week while maintaing quality. No, it's not easy to change the doors. Actually it wouldn't be very far from starting from scratch. Seriously. Will. Not. Happen.
Elon Musk: 'People Don't Understand How Hard It Is To Manufacture Something' - Business Insider�
Nov 11, 2014
mrdoubleb The doors are not simply "doors". They are an integral part of the design, the stability of the chassis, they determin how the whole structure behaves in a crash, etc. Changing the doors would almost be like starting the car all over. (I think). Not to mention it would be a huge PR disaster.
I too believe at this point it's all about manufacturing. They said the alphas are done, so to me that means the engineering is done. What they are doing now with the betas is tweaking things for high volume manufacturing. Running the design through a simulated or real production flow and looking for phases which are too slow, optimizing things for ramp up.
Even with the new production line, every X produced will be one less S produced. This is because of the battery limitiations. So they need to think hard about when to give the green light. Right now they are doing about 1k cars per week. X could even raise ASP so if it becomes 500 S and 500 X that may even raise margins, or at the very least have no negative effects. If production falls back to 800 total, because it is taking the same time to build 300 X as it takes to finish 500 S, we have a problem.�
Nov 12, 2014
AudubonB Are any here knowledgeable of aircraft design (I'm not)? I was thinking of passenger crafts' doors. They certainly have been able to be engineered so that they (1) can withstand a little bit of air flowing by them at speed :wink:; (2) maintain their seal and other integrity over many thousands of hours of turbulence (pothole analogy); and (3) can be opened and shut in an efficient manner (think of the emergency exit protocol).
Compared to those, it would seem to me that designing and manufacturing a falcon door for an automobile would be a walk in the park. But then, IANAE.�
Nov 12, 2014
30seconds Car doors are integral to how it performs on crash tests. As far as I know, there is no similar requirements for airplane doors.�
Nov 12, 2014
mrdoubleb Wait! You mean there are no crash tests for airplanes?! I'm gonna think twice about ever boarding one again... :tongue:�
Nov 12, 2014
anticitizen13.7 This.
The 10-Q that Tesla filed a few days ago with the SEC stated that the Alpha phase was just about over, and that construction of Betas had already started.
This means that not only is the Model X design locked-in, it's confirmed to work as intended.
The task ahead for Tesla is figuring out and implementing how to build Model X in a mass-production setting. Elon had stated that building one of anything is relatively easy, but building hundreds and then thousands of that same thing is much much harder. There are numerous factors to consider in a mass production line, from supply chain management to the exact sequence of building to quality/tolerance issues.
Choreographing all of this is what takes so long.
The X ships when it ships, but I do hope Tesla shows something soon.�
Nov 12, 2014
bonnie You and me, both. If that doesn't stop all this 'maybe they won't have falcon doors, maybe the falcon doors are holding things up' speculation, I don't know what will. Making. Me. Nuts.�
Nov 12, 2014
ohmman One reason people blame the doors is they're hopeful they'll be omitted.
Another reason is it's a pretty technical challenge. Compare it all you want to hatchbacks and the back door of a MS. It's not remotely the same thing. I worry about clearance on my MS hatchback door all the time, because it doesn't sense and stop itself from hitting a wall or ceiling. And I'm usually right behind it with my hand on it. I can't be on two sides of a car at the same time. I don't know if a rake is hanging close, or a small concrete filled parking block protruding just slightly above the swing of the door. Engineering has to get the sensors flawless, or people will be coming back with requests for body repairs because the doors were bumping into things (right or wrong). It's a challenge. And while I get that Tesla is well above the challenge, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the doors could have set things back to some degree.�
Nov 12, 2014
bonnie I'm absolutely sure the doors did present unique challenges. Months ago. Not now.�
Nov 13, 2014
ck1116 I hope Tesla can add swivel driver seat or both front seats, so I can get in and out without touching any door; and the space between both rows of seats will be large enough to put in a foldable table for picnic in the car. :biggrin:�
Nov 13, 2014
Hugh Mannity Yeah! Plan is to use ours as a "camper van" too when the need arises, hopefully the config of the x lends itself to being very ulitarian�
Nov 13, 2014
AudubonB Reminder to Self: Never ask Queen Bonnie onto MY Whack-a-Mole team.�
Nov 13, 2014
EchoDelta I think the exterior wood panelling to be PERFECT might be the biggest holdup right now; getting that lacewood or obeche matte/gloss on the exterior surfaces; safety rating issues; maybe some aero drag issues? Or weight issues - I can just see Elon poring at 3 AM over some wood surface saying "the grain's gotta be RIGHT! Oak may have better aerodynamics! The paneling can't have any bevels!"
You think it's going to be an extra cost or a default feature for all MXs? Will Signature holders be able to configure other types of exterior wood? Can't wait!! I may start a poll to ask which wood exterior you're all likely to get to help Tesla design a better product.
�
Nov 13, 2014
bonnie -growl- Way to start yet-another-new-rumor.�
Nov 13, 2014
EchoDelta It's been mentioned all over the forums for a long time! How else you explain that the gigafactory will most maybe have that reforestation project nextdoor? Wood takes 6 months to station right, and the Model X is delayed 6 months. Coincidence? Plus there has been no interviews with Elon, or news on investor sites saying that the feature was cancelled.�
Nov 13, 2014
bonnie OMG, I'm laughing. You're RIGHT!�
Nov 13, 2014
Hugh Mannity Oh man, mactac better be an option,alberta is VERY dry, the wood panelling will be a biatch to keep from cracking
�
Nov 16, 2014
AudubonB I want to be the first to have that wooden spoiler. Much more effective than those wimpy carbon fibers ones normally seen.�
Nov 17, 2014
patrick42h Tesla is not dropping the falcon-wing doors. They are a marquee feature and have been heavily promoted. I suspect the Model X has been delayed due to either range or manufacturing issues. The doors are pretty well finished, I would imagine.�
Nov 17, 2014
EchoDelta At least 5 passes of sandpaper.�
Nov 18, 2014
Kandiru I think they are trying to beat the Honda Odyssey to it.
A lot of parents skip SUVs because they are very impractical in parking lots when you have to remove car seats and kids.
If the gullwings raise with little lateral protrusion there wil be a MASSIVE market for the Model X.
The market is also missing a luxury minivan, the main competitor to the Model X, but Marchione has plans to bring a futuristic AWD Chrysler T&C cca. 2016.
Look at all these yuppies getting married in their late thirties and forties, they are loaded and ready for it.�
Nov 18, 2014
yobigd20 I'm speculating that the reason for the delays isn't necessarily due to the doors, but instead they are making the entire interior extremely luxurious with entertainment systems and all the bells and whistles you'd find in other cars along with some new stuff not found in other cars. Maybe 4G LTE support with consoles built into the back seats with Internet access and private headphones for playing games and watching movies, etc etc. and cup holders too. I think it's going to be so feature rich everyone's going to want to get rid of their ICE suv's and make this the family vehicle. Maybe they'll have an espresso maker built in too.�
Nov 18, 2014
Johan Dennis, here's a nice Espresso machine that runs on 400 V power (wire it straight to the HV battery). Will probably take up the entire 3rd row though...
Buy Classe 7 E 2 group 400V 3+N - Machines for professional use
�
Nov 18, 2014
Zaxxon Today's Model X update email to reservation holders confirmed that the falcon doors will be part of the final vehicle.�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie That was a shocker.�
Nov 18, 2014
Zaxxon And here I was hoping that I'd ended this thread. Let's try again.
Today's Model X update email to reservation holders confirmed that the falcon doors will be a part of the final vehicle.
�
Nov 18, 2014
Johan 
�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie You clearly missed my sarcasm.�
Nov 18, 2014
Zaxxon I figured you were being sarcastic, but wasn't sure you got my own sarcasm. Fun times.�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie Just to be clear ... no thread ever ends on this forum. Ever.
�
Nov 18, 2014
robby The email says "In the meantime, we are building beta vehicles in the factory right now, and we�ll be using them for crash testing in the near future." Sounds like they are worried the Falcon Doors could fail crash testing.
*throws grenade, ducks for cover*�
Nov 18, 2014
Zaxxon Oh, man; you're right! Nuts.�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie Ohhhhhhh no you don't. Front and center. I'm throwing you right on top of that grenade. Own it.
It does NOT sound like they think it will fail crash testing. What engineer in their right mind sends their work out for the independent testing without having done their own testing first? (Answer: Not one who expects to keep their job.)
And if it DID fail testing, it would not mean a redesign, only some tweaks to the design.�
Nov 18, 2014
ecarfan @robby, I hope you're not serious. Crash testing is a routine part of the development of every new model automobile.�
Nov 18, 2014
Zaxxon Man, after commenting on my ability to detect sarcasm, you sure missed his, Bonnie.�
Nov 18, 2014
anticitizen13.7 Also, a lot of crash testing is done via computer simulation, and it's been done this way for years if not decades.
The vehicle would never have gotten to the Alpha stage if the engineers hadn't already put the frame though exhaustive virtual qualification.�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie Welcome to a moderator's private hell.�
Nov 18, 2014
Zaxxon Believe me, I understand.�
Nov 18, 2014
Hugh Mannity Lol same here, am a moderator on a sport bike forum, they are even crazier than teslii folk!�
Nov 18, 2014
Merrill Should we not remove the thread on Model X production having no falcon doors?�
Nov 18, 2014
bonnie The thread title is modified with an "IF"�
Nov 18, 2014
robby Haha, sorry for any elevated heartrate or aneurysms I caused but I couldn't resist satirizing this thread. I thought my comment was too outlandish to possibly be taken seriously but it just goes to show how much crazy talk there has been.�
Nov 19, 2014
Earlian And where is this mysterious comment? Can't find one post by "robby" in this thread?
perhaps i missed some inside knowledge�
Nov 19, 2014
pete8314 I guess Elon's tweet dispels this once and for all:
�
Nov 19, 2014
bonnie He clearly took pity on the TMC moderators. Thanks, Elon!�
Nov 19, 2014
Doug_G LOL Bonnie for the win!�
Nov 19, 2014
Merrill I guess my point is that with the e-mail and previous Elon info there will only be falcon doors, so IF is no longer valid.�
Nov 19, 2014
ecarfan It's great that Tesla tracks the comments on TMC, and no doubt the Tesla Motors website forum also. I don't expect Tesla to respond to every oddball comment, but I think it's clear that Twsla watches for active topics and takes action as they think appropriate.�
Nov 19, 2014
bonnie Right, but contrary to the random statements made from time to time, moderators on this forum rarely close threads, delete posts, or delete threads. If it happens, there is always a reason associated with a TOS violation or something like that.
General annoyance with the topic isn't enough to close it or delete it (as much as I'd like to do so at times, trust me!). We will modify thread titles to be accurate, have enough information as as not to be 'click-bait', move the thread to the appropriate area of the forum, move posts to the correct thread, stuff like that. But not change the content of the thread or remove the thread entirely.
Soooo ... you're stuck with this!�
Nov 19, 2014
Merrill No problem PB, and thanks for the great job you are doing it is appreciated.�
Nov 19, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Elon Musk tweeted when the idea spread to another Internet site.�
Nov 19, 2014
ecarfan Which site?�
Nov 19, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I saw a link to an article on Street Insider Click Bait Web Crawler or something like that. But actually, reading one of the investment threads here I think his tweet was in response to speculation from Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley).�
Nov 19, 2014
bonnie ... as I am stuck with this.�
Nov 19, 2014
NigelM Alternatively, members could just stop posting in this thread?�
Nov 19, 2014
Merrill Absolutely not, it is only bestowed on someone that displays special qualities. I would be happy to just be Bonnie.�
Nov 19, 2014
aronth5 Or just start a rumor that Tesla has decided to add Falcon wings for the front doors too:smile: No I guess that would be a bad idea..............�
Nov 19, 2014
Tedkidd I hope this ^^^^^
I don't care about the doors, but I really want the cameramirrors�
Nov 19, 2014
Cueonly I may be off base, but I'm pretty sure Elon was responding to the Bloomberg article about the possibility of not having the FWD, causing the stock to drop. Not that these forums are not as important as the stock dropping a few percent!!!
-j�
Nov 19, 2014
Cueonly Sorry I meant Morgan Stanley, not Bloomberg.�
Nov 21, 2014
pinguhk Then I will 100% buy it.:smile:
This is what is stopping me and my friend from buying it in Hong Kong because almost all car parks can not open these door.�
Nov 30, 2014
Red Sage "What if the production Model X has no Falcon Wing Doors?"
In that case, Elon Musk would have some 'splainin' to do...
Luckily, it will have Falcon Wing Doors.�
Nov 30, 2014
Hugh Mannity I am pretty sure there will be some kind of workaround for this, the vehicle needs to appeal to all markets not just spacious north america�
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