Thứ Tư, 1 tháng 2, 2017

Surprise R and D project part 1

  • Aug 2, 2014
    Chickenlittle
    I always thought super chargers along highways really consistent with trucking becoming electric. However I do remember musk saying about 18 months ago that the active air suspension would work well in a pickup truck. He mentioned that he would like to develop one. I suspect this will be in the works
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    daniel Ox9EFD
    Or it could be the wireless charging he promised Colbert :wink:.

    Elon also said Teleportation would be cool. hmm...

    In all seriousness though, I think a truck would be too big a deal to hold secret, and would take too much time off the X and S. I'd go with a more advanced supercharger.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    vgrinshpun
    All of the things that were mentioned so far regarding the surprise project all involve things that were at one point or another mentioned by EM and others at TM. If I would guess about a thing that public really does not know about, it should not be anything that was mentioned before.

    I think that the secret R&D project could be about developing (adopting) the drivetrain for a major auto manufacturer, other than Toyota or Daimler. This would be a really major development because it will signify a shift in attitude toward the EVs. A project like that could be under wraps until a preliminary "proving concept" prototype is developed before inking the final contract.

    If the above theory proves to be true, it could be a watershed moment for EV adoption and Tesla Motors.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    kenliles
    I didn't get the sense it was just a single thing either. The discussion was around R&D currently and on-going. And a 'new' policy position from Tesla that not all things will be revealed. I'm more in the camp of multiple items. Including stationary storage systems in a big way, vgrinshpun's major drivetrain idea another good possible, of course the auto-drive aspects, and even some expansion into other vehicle types (including anything moving people from small to aircraft). Some of these to be revealed in the nearer timeframe, some in the more distant; But the point being made is- don't financially correlate R&D spending to current revenue.
    Exciting change and really portends to Elons (and JB I think another driver here) vision for Tesla long term- much more than traditional automative. Elon seems happiest in that very advanced development role too- I think that's what drives him. Even after stepping down as CEO, said he'll be involved with Tesla permanently and building an R&D tool house is perfect for that, while SpaceX continues. It all fits nicely and I think a BIG piece they're working on currently is the stationary storage coupled to more than 1 GF to accomplish, etc. Good stuff. Excellent for Tesla's long term health, and that of the human race in general. Kudos Elon
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Ssssly
    Based on the earnings call comment about getting the $/kW down to $100, I expect they have the following:

    - Reduced charging time closer to ICE refill
    - Greater range - comparable to average ICE
    - Lower $/kW

    Not just one of these, but all of them.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Nixx
    R&D Capex spending


    Highly doubt this. Tesla is supply constrained by batteries and they already terminated the Toyota contract so they could direct more batteries at their own vehicle. On the conference call Elon said several times that they have too much demand and do not want to stoke more demand. Diverting batteries elsewhere would be counter productive.
    Whatever they are doing, they are already far along. They said both the Capex and RD numbers are high because of it. If it was just RD, they wouldn't be very far along. Since Capex is elevated, they are already buildings something out.

    Maybe they are just adding a pile of solar panels to the roof of the factory? Does solarcity charge for industrial customer installs or is it free with a 20 year lease? But installing solar panels doesn't imply any RD spending...

    Maybe there are two things they are working on?
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Causalien
    I vote for ICBM based on a railgun design where Model S is the "bullet" by strapping on some magnets for conduction with the on board battery. It'll disrupt the airline industry.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Nixx
    That's a good thought. It definitely could be auto-drive. I thought Elon said he would have something in this area by end of 2015?

    @Ssssly - I think lowering the $/kW is just going to come with economy of scale. The next big technological leap will be with the new technology at the gigafactory. Elon said on a conference call that a refresh of Model S would come about 6ish years after launch, at which point the battery would probably get new technology... which would coincidentally land right about when the gigafactory opens.

    I'm curious if anyone has any idea how they will get the charging times lower than they already are? I thought the cells can only charge at 1.5x. 85kw x 1.5 = 127, which is the current supercharge rate. I suppose the new cells they create might have a better rate, but how far can they push it? 2x? Even at 200kwh charge, that's still 25 min at full rate, and it slows when it gets full. So lets say 30-40 min for a full charge from empty. That's still not ICE refill time.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    jkliu47
    I went back and watched Elon's interview on CNBC Disruptor 50 interview (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101706968) and got some hints:

    1) AI (as an offshoot of the autonomous car development)
    2) Genetics (extending human life - probably related to space travel)
    3) Hyperloop (not personally involved now, but may take it on if no one pursues it)
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    DaveT
    IIRC from a previous SolarCity conference call (I think the one announcing the Silevo acquisition) that Tesla and Solarcity are working on inverter technology. I'd imagine (completely guessing here) there to be an announcement within 6-12 months regarding this.

    It's possible Tesla could have been working on advanced inverter technology and is looking to release an inverter for the solar industry, perhaps for the residential market first but not exclusively.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    twinklejet
  • Aug 2, 2014
    mershaw2001
    How about electric trains? I thought that Tesla had initially supplied some electric parts to train manufacturers years ago, but the supercharging, the massive regenerative breaking and the torque of an electric motor would all be good for a train.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    uselesslogin
    Well trains already have the torque of an electric motor being that they are all hybrid diesel-electric unless they are a pure electric where there are overhead wires but regenerative braking and supercharging would be good additions. TIL diesel-electrics use dynamic brakes that dissipate the energy from braking into heat. This makes sense because they probably couldn't make batteries big enough to take the regeneration charge.
    Regenerative brake - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Bgarret
    If it isn't the Hyperloop they are working on, think about the implication. You have already designed & disclosed a concept that would revolutionize medium term transportation, but you didn't have the time to pursue it??? The thing you are putting through your R & D paces is COOLER than the Hyperloop? Can't wait.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Jackl1956
    Imagine what Elon's coming media interviews will be like. How many times will he answer this question before the reveal?
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    ecarfan
    On the earnings call Elon clearly implied that Tesla was working on more than one new project that he was not yet ready to discuss. He is very disciplined and he won't reveal it until he is ready.

    The projects may or may not be things he has mentioned in the past. I am sure they are things that relate to Tesla's core mission. I doubt they are in completely different fields like AI or genetics or trains.

    A drivetrain to be used by another car company seems possible since that company could source the batteries elsewhere, as MB does currently. But just an EV drivetrain hardly seems that big a deal or something to keep secret. After all, pTesla has already supplied batteries and drivetrain for the Toyota RAV 4 EV and batteries for the new Mercedes B Class EV.

    It could be the semi autonomous driving capability that Elon has mentioned earlier this year, but if so then why refuse to discuss it now?

    A new stationary grid storage product would be great, but I don't think that's it because batteries are not exactly plentiful right now.

    I don't believe it's another car model given that the clear priority is bringing the Model 3 to market by 2017 and as we all know the gigafactory has to come on line for that to occur. A new truck would be impossible to keep secret, and what would be the motivation to do so?

    So I really have no idea what mystery projects Elon was referring to. The Hyperloop seems like an outside possibility but in the past he's been clear that doesn't have the time to work on that, and even one Hyperloop between LA and SF is a huge project.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Jackl1956
  • Aug 2, 2014
    Raffy.Roma
    This

    IMO Elon will announce within the end of the year the Driving Assistant Package.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    mitch672
    It's possible Tesla has discovered the Model S pack it good for a great many more cycles than originally estimated.
    one possibility, would be an early proof of concept of grid storage and home backup power would be tesla designed V2G system, for the Model S/X. Initially, I think they would market it as home backup power, but could be expanded to be solar storage as well.
    this is power engineering, and completly in Teslas "wheelhouse"

    btw, the relays to access the 400VDC pack already exist in every Model S, so the car already has the capability on the existing charging connector for this possibility.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    AudubonB
    I'm thinking his engineers have come up with a way to harness the mental energy created by this forum's members when he throws out zingers like this one.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    mitch672
    yup, Elon has people check the threads for him, looking for the best ideas.
    it could happen, but i doubt it :)
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Raffy.Roma
    Hope so :wink:
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    RobStark
    How about lithium air supplemental battery packs as range extenders?

    265 EPA rechargeable range plus 500-1000 mile recyclable battery pack for when recharging is impossible or very inconvenient.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    omarsultan
    I think it needs to be something directly related to Tesla Motors revenue, etc. Wall Street will not be pleased if that kind of shareholder money is being spent on some side project, even one as cool as HyperLoop. Everything should be feeding into making MX and M3 successful or its going to be viewed as a distraction.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    austinEV
    Hah! That is my favorite idea so far: They really need something to work on so, he says "we got secrets" then logs onto TMC.com to find out what his secrets should be, then goes and does that.

    Or, maybe you are suggesting a direct TMC geek -> propulsion conversion tech. Also excellent.

    On a different note, I hope they do allow vehicle-to-house transfer. I would install solar so fast. Also, I would suddenly become enthusiastic about charging at work :)
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    They couldn't afford to do the hyperloop. It's obviously the submersible car project.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    austinEV
    You are all wrong. It's an emdrive car.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    ecarfan
    That would be awesome! But how would one connect the car to a residential breaker panel to provide power while protecting the car from grid power surges when the power comes back on? And to use the car to store output from a residential PV system the car would have to be home during the day, yet typically that is not the case.
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    pz1975
    I think it is the semi-autonomous driving project. We here know about that as it has been eluded to a few times but there is no way that the public and analysts on Wall St are aware of that as a potential major selling point of future Tesla cars (I rarely if ever see it mentioned in any analysis of the company). So it would fit the criterion of something "something you don't know of yet".
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    Raffy.Roma
    + 1
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  • Aug 2, 2014
    SteveG3
    I've been thinking home backup power, and experimenting with vehicle to grid since the call. Good point re the pack likely having many more cycles than Tesla has suggested or estimated. One of the members here who seems to have a strong battery background has suggested something like 300K+ mile packs retaining ~90% capacity.

    Past couple of days I've been trying to remember whether Elon has deflected suggestions of V2G because he doesn't see it as a good option or because it's an interesting idea but they simply cannot do everything, as he's tried to point out at a few times while fielding questions at QAs with the public. Quite sure this came up in Europe this past January/Feb, I think it was in Norway.

    This would add value to owning an EV and putting up solar panels� obviously two things Elon wants to see accelerated.

    No worries if there's no simple answer, but does it seem plausible that using the battery pack in the car as backup for power loss at one's home could be separated from vehicle to grid? That is, initially focusing on the benefit of having that battery pack in your garage during a power outage, without having to sort things out with the utilities for vehicle to grid?

    - - - Updated - - -

    fwiw, that's another one I'd be excited to see. In the first half of 2013 Elon had tweeted (I think in a reply tweet) some new battery tech may be ready for the Gen III. I don't remember the exact words, but my impression at the time was his wording implied something other than simply incremental lithium ion battery improvement.

    I do think semi-autonomous driving was likely part of what Elon was referring to this week, but as one of the cards, not the whole set. I read his tone and wording to suggest some of the cards we don't really have any idea they are going after. As he's already said we'll see something pretty impressive on the auto pilot front in 2015, I suspect it would not be the only card he had in mind when he spoke on Thursday.


    here's the tweet I was referring to� interesting, could be a reference to metal air, though not necessarily related to the battery:

    [?IMG]Elon Musk @elonmusk � 23 Mar 2013

    .@benmacy $30k in 2013 $ (ie + inflation) w 200+ mile range w some really cool tech that we can't talk about yet.

    [COLOR=#0084B4 !important]View conversation?
    ?

    [/COLOR]
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    At TMC Connect, Diarmuid made a statement that I interpreted to mean that the Model S already has the hardware capability for V2G (that is, moving power OUT of the battery). If that's so, V2G just a software update away -- at the car's level, anyway. There will need to be break-then-make protection circuits in your house to enable safe operation.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    Johan
    I believe V2G is a bit premature yet. Emergency back-up would be cool though, as well as V2V (one Tesla Supercharges the other). Also I don't think these things would be qualified as "some really cool tech" by Elon.

    Autonomous driving has the lowest odds in my book. But I'd love to be blown away by something amazing.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    Chickenlittle
    Two years ago I had sent tesla an e mail suggesting the car being a battery back up for the house. At the time I was installing a lead battery backup for my house (we loose power if there is a cloud in the sky where we live). Actually got back a reply from Blankenship saying they had no intension of ever doing that. Figured they had already thought about that but perhaps the liability was too high if not installed properly
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    You not only have liability issues, but it raises potential problems with the battery warranty. Also, people seem to forget that cycling the battery reduces its capacity, and I'm guessing that Tesla doesn't want to see press coverage of people with 30% degradation after 40,000 miles -- only to find that the owner had been cycling the pack daily to run his off-grid house.

    My back-of-the-envelope calculation puts the cost of energy drawn from the drive battery at about $0.25/kWh (assuming 1,000 cycles of useful life, $20,000 pack replacement cost), plus the cost of the energy used to charge the battery. That's expensive, but not crazy-expensive. (The battery can do a lot more than 1,000 cycles, of course, but the degradation will have been steep enough by then that most people would find it providing unacceptable range.)
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    mitch672
    To do backup power and/or V2G, that technology is well understood, and is used on every emergency generator. A simple contactor that is installed where the main power to the house, and the breaker panel meet. The system could be designed to function in backup mode, meaning it only comes online in the event of main utility power failure,
    So the contactor isolates the inverter from the utility in that case. For use as V2G, it can only supply power if the utility is working since you can't risk electrocuting a lineman working on the utility wires during an outage.

    I think they could do this design in 2 hardware pieces, the contactor that is installed at the service entrance, and an inverter that basically replaces your HPWC with a piece of hardware that is the car interface, and the inverter. It would of course have to be on a large breaker (100A), to be most effective. The contactor and HPWC/inverter could communicate with each other over AC power wiring, or wifi/Bluetooth, or many other technologies. In many cases it wouldn't be possible to have the contactor and car interface/inverter all located together, so some type of communication link would be needed.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    ecarfan
    Sounds cool but I think there are too many practical obstacles: getting local permits from your county or city, and getting your utility to approve it. Utilities will hate this idea. Already in California the utilities have made it almost impossible for SolarCity to install Tesla 10kW backup battery systems connected to PV.

    Sorry, I don't think what you describe is going to happen.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    NigelM
    They have some folks working on autonomous vehicles. Fact.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    mitch672
    For backup power only, no one can stop them. You can buy a generator and automatic transfer switch from hundreds of manufacturers, this is just a generator that uses an 85KW battery pack and inverter, nothing different than any number of generators availble commercially, other than it runs on stored battery power rather than fossil fuel, and is much quieter.

    For V2G, that's utility interactive, and a different story, however, the utilities are actually in favor of alternative power sources on the grid to smooth out peak demand, so I think you'll see a lot more cooperation in the future.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    tander
    Chicken, but what surprise are you referring to? Also you are probably right in a way about the pickup truck, it will probably be the next high volume platform for Tesla after the 30-35k car, considering that Ford alone sells about 80k pickup trucks a month, although it might not happen for a few years.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Johan, a month or two ago I recall hearing Musk saying that they will have hands free driving from highway on ramp to off ramp in less than a year, so the odds for at least partial auto-driving seem pretty good, and that timing coincides pretty well with the Model X ramp. Even if the software wasn't quite ready it wouldn't be surprising to see them equip new cars with the hardware and then add the software.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    SteveG3
    Firstly, I just wanted to mention, when we conjecture about these items, it's worth remembering that until the Spring of 2013, Elon and Tesla as a whole did not think they'd have anywhere near the kind of money they now have to work with. Some of the "No, not happening" on various ideas that we had heard in the past may have had to do with a lack of financial resources which is no longer an issue (that said, surely some of the "No, not happening" to ideas thrown at Tesla no amount of money would change... me and Colbert will probably have to manage without "jet packs"). I'm not suggesting that they have $3 billion for these other R&D cards, the $2 billion from this past February's capital raise is ultimately said to be for the Gigafactory, and much of last May's $1 billion raise is being poured into new service centers and SuperChargers, but it is reasonable to think that there is far more money available for R&D projects today than what seemed realistic a year and a half ago. (to put this in context the unexpectedness of these funds, Elon has publicly stated that he really did not know in advance if the stock would go up or down after the earnings release last spring that led to the price soaring, and set the stage for raising funds with the two big convertible debt offerings. in addition, their global expectation for S/X sales is about triple what it was entering 2013, meaning their ongoing business is generating far more funds for them to reinvest in the business than seemed plausible not too long ago).


    Thanks for the explanation Mitch. Glad to hear what Tesla would need to do for backup power is already well understood. It seems like a considerably simpler first step to making more use of the pack than going right to V2G.

    As to pack degradation... that's why I thought Mitch had made a very good point upthread about Tesla possibly having gotten more comfortable with the pack life. Tesla's statements and pack warranty imply the pack will be appropriate for automotive use roughly 10 years. A month or two ago one of the members here, who does seem to have a strong battery background, was pretty emphatically suggesting that the pack will be great for vehicle use for 300K miles, if not more, based on data already existing on 18650s he documented. My recollection is he was suggesting ~90% capacity after 300K miles. Granted, time will tell how the packs hold up in the cars, but what the other poster said was very consistent with what Mitch is suggesting. Tesla may have seen enough to make them comfortable that people wont trash the reputation of the packs if they have the ability to use them for emergency backup, or possibly even V2G.


    As to "some really cool tech", agreed, I was thinking more something that changes or augments the drivetrain, like adding metal air as a range extender.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    30seconds
    How about carbon fiber / other weight loss techniques? Makes sense from range and efficiency standpoint.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    jkeyser14
    They are definitely working on aspects of autonomous driving. I work in the defense industry on autonomous vehicles and Tesla recent hired an old co-worker for his (limited) experience with autonomous vision systems.
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    Model 3
    Yes, but that is an project we do know about. Whats the project(s) that Elon hinted about that we don't know about?

    They have been working on Model 3 for a long time and have made more progress then anybody have guessed? (hope it this! :) ). Ready to deliver in Q1 2016? ;)
    They have started working on the Model Y, and will show/deliver both models at the same time?
    They have been secretly working on a GF on an unknown location since April/May? It will be done ready to move in by end of 1H 2015?

    (Ok, this may not be so serious, but as long as we don't know it's allowed to be an optimist ;) )
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  • Aug 3, 2014
    TSLAROX
    I wonder is something secret is happening in China. I know of at least one Tesla employee who left because he would've been required to moved to China. This might also explain some of the favor that the Chinese government has show to Tesla thus far.

    - - - Updated - - -

    *shown (sorry, I don't know how to edit yet)

    - - - Updated - - -

    and: *if (must learn to proofread before I post)
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Newb
    Well, WE are confident that they are working on it ;-) , but neither Elon nor JB have announced it officially yet, did they? I remember Elon and JB being very reluctant to even tell us that they are working on adaptive cruise control, blind spot warning and similar features (e.g. in the meeting in Amsterdam: Elon Musk Townhall meeting Amsterdam (HD): Firmware Version 6.0, SuperCharger Locations Europe, etc. - YouTube at 40:00-41:15 roughly).

    I would even think that the major retooling at Fremont is partly due to changes to the Model S (cameras, sensors, radars, etc.) ...
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Model 3
    I don't remember where or when, but yes. Elon has said that the goal is to deliver GIII (now known as Model 3) with "autopilot". How "official" that is I can't tell, but it would be strange if he now suddenly is keeping it as a secret.

    Elon don't want radar btw...
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Newb
    Could you give us a source for both statements? And with regards to the autopilot in Model 3, this is at least 3-4 years from now, but I think Elon was referring to something closer in time.

    EDIT: At least I wish there was some surprise changes to the Model S :) Freeway autopilot would be a very nice feature to have in the near term future.

    While relistening to the Q2 webcast, I got the impression that it might indeed be a bigger project already in the making, Elon was referring to when talking about "not showing all our cards" and "capex and r&d numbers are better than they appear". Interestingly, to add to that, Deepak said they were doing a lot of product related stuff "at this point" and R&D will "sort of slow down". Would that mean that the results of this R&D of Q1-Q2 will be visible pretty soon? Sorry, but I'm just too excited... ;-)
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    hockeythug
  • Aug 4, 2014
    DJ Frustration
    If I had to guess, I think the secret R&D expense is...shuffle play from USB memory sticks in the Model S. :wink:
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Johan
    Yes. A team of 15 engineers are working on it for 4 months now. Already over $1 million spent on getting it perfect!

    (Your nick BTW fits your post perfectly)
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Model 3
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-07/tesla-ceo-talking-with-google-about-autopilot-systems.html
    http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-takes-to-twitter-to-recruit-autopilot-engineers/


    Yes, as hockeythug already has linked in he had later said the will have something to show in a year from now. But I think he then talked about a prototype, not something for a production car yet.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    jdevo2004
    I am betting that Tesla is gaining attention outside of just the passenger car industry. I would not be surprised to hear Tesla teaming up with a major American bus manufacturer to provide large batteries and motors. I would also not be surprised to hear that Tesla was working with locomotive manufacturers to provide massive train car batteries that easily swap out with an electric locomotive. A 50 ton battery could power a locomotive at full power for 3 hours. Current diesel locomotives usually weigh around 75 tons. Cheap batteries brings so many possibilities to transportation.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Vger
    This was my first thought as well. The points about battery constraints are of course valid, but any such project would have a long runway, and could be timed to enter full-production when the gigafactory comes on line. Remember that, above all else, Elon want the EV revolution to succeed. They know that they have to provoke other partners to come along. My top candidate would be BMW. They seem to catching the EV passion.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Familial Rhino
    Whatever it is, to me it looks like it's more than one thing.

    I thought Deepak alluded more to blue-sky type of investments, by saying something like "if there is one place where we will want to invest, it's there", referring to R&D. In the context he said that, he was clearly speaking about the future.

    Elon, however, said that the capex numbers in their latest report "are better than they look", meaning right now, which to me suggested he was referring to something with more immediate payoff. That's also when he added the cryptic "we're not showing all our cards." Given the context, I took that to mean that the expenses may look big now, but if you knew what we know, they wouldn't look that big anymore.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    hockeythug
    Building a literal Solar City. :wink:
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    jhm
    Perhaps we should be ask why TM is not laying out all there cards. There are several possible reasons. In the case of the GF pad in Reno, the motivation seems to have been that they did not want to spoil negotiations with other states. We have also learned the demand for the MX is so high, that Tesla is trying to steer buyers into the MS in stead. That is the anticipation of MX is potentially cutting into current sales. A third motivation would be to stay ahead of the competition. Of course, TM is so far ahead that they are comfortable releasing patents, so I'm not too concerned that Tesla is withholding information for a competitive advange, though it would be possible.

    So I think the most likely rationale is that they have product improvement to announce that has the potential to cause consumers to delay purchase. Two categories seem to fit this: autopilot gear and higher range batteries. What else?
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Newb

    Good line of reasoning! Totally agree!

    Here's another guess: new dirt repellent paint? (since they mentioned the new paint shop to come on line in Q1 15)

    one more: AWD for Model S

    alright, another guess, because I imagine this to be really cool: falcon doors option for Model S !


    @Model 3 & hockeythug: Thanks for the links!
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    austinEV
    I think they meant that the spend is better in the sense that stockholders are getting more value than it appears. In other words if they were spending it all on just s, x 3 the spend would be less.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    Model 3
    But, as I already have stated here, autopilot (and AWD for TMS) is things we already know that is coming. Higher range batteries on the other hand is one possibillity. Well, we know that to, but it may come earlier then expected. It may come with the TMX?

    Other then that I see two things: Selling batteries and drive-trains to a new customer or developing a new model (Y? S Cabriolet/wagon? X Pickup/Van?) we don't expect (yet). Or possibly something with grid-storage or something.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    StapleGun
    I've always wondered what would happen if you coated a windshield in something like Neverwet. Could you remove the need for windshield wipers?

    After that you would only need to tackle the problem of tires and you could have a car which never needs regular replacement of any parts.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    dauger
    I'd guess the "cards" TM is "not showing" is a counter strategy to Hydrogen economy as described here:
    Auto Industry Playing Dirty With Hydrogen - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

    Because it's a distraction from Tesla at the very least, and a potentially huge waste of time and money. TM would want to counter FCEV's claimed advantages over PEVs, specifically:

    1. Superdupercharging: half the battery in 10, if not under 5, minutes. JB last year implied it could be done. Other than 0.5 MW DC charging, I don't see how.
    2. 400 or more miles of range: There was recent talk of roadster battery upgrades. Maybe a 120 kWh option on new Model S/X, possible only with the retooled production line?

    Maybe these two go together. A rearrangement of the cells to enable both "Gen 2.5" features, or even the battery pack switching its series-parallel configuration to be optimal for charging vs for driving.

    Then again, if I'm right, am I tipping TM's hand to the Hydrogen conspirators?

    Edit for further support of my theory: Opening up the patents was TM's first counter move to Hydrogen to throw a bone/carrot to the automakers thinking about Hydrogen vs. Battery.
    �
  • Aug 4, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    Some things said here make sense, other things don't make that much sense. My views:

    1. Electric buses, trucks, large scale grid storage, working with other car companies, etc doesn't seem too likely given the limited supply of batteries. This is more likely to happen in 5 years.
    2. V2G doesn't seem to likely. It's a neat technology, but the commercial potential isn't that big. Tesla wants to go into the mass market, and these sorts of products don't further that goal.
    3. Significantly faster supercharging doesn't seem too likely. There are just too many limitations Tesla is pushing up against. Grid capacity, plug design limits, battery limitations, etc. It's more important for Tesla to get more superchargers installed.
    4. Additional features like autonomous driving, AWD, etc is probably part of the R&D. Adding features on the Model S/X allows them to fully test them on tens of thousands of vehicles before they integrate them on the Gen 3, which is very good for Tesla long-term. People who buy the Model S are early adopters, willing to experience some discomfort while serving as guinea pigs. ;)
    5. Longer range batteries is possible. I'm thinking there wouldn't be that much R&D involved in tweaking the battery pack architecture or making the same pack with higher capacity cells, but if they've finally started looking at a hybrid li-ion/metal-air battery, that could easily absorb a lot of capital. This could also be tied in with battery swapping. I have previously considered the idea that Tesla might have a specific battery-swap battery, with longer range. Metal-air makes it possible to have a 600 mile range battery, and if any 60 kWh Model S owner could rent a 600 mile battery at an acceptable cost, that would certainly impact public perception.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    tander
    Those are good points, but the range of the batteries isn't really that relevant anymore especially with the superchargers, it's the cost. And the cost is the big ace that they have up their sleeve, they just haven't finished building it yet (gigafactory). When the gigafactory is up and running batteries costs will be cheaper than gas; economies of scale+ improvements in batt chemistry, safety, convenience, and software = royal flush.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    dauger
    I personally agree with you that is the truth, and we benefit from our success using Tesla's solution. But some Hydrogen proponents are doing everything they can to hide that truth you and I agree on. I'm concerned about disinformation touting Hydrogen as better like:
    Everything You Need to Know About Fuel Cell Vehicles
    Is Tesla's EV The Future Of Autos? Probably Not - Forbes

    Those who drive a Tesla, or who know Tesla well enough, won't be fooled, but this manipulation of everyone else's perception is the sort of thing I could see making Elon angry (and me too! Remember the Broder...). So I could see Elon preparing a skunkworks to counter the two primary Hydrogen proponents' claimed advantages (under 10 min recharge and 300+ miles range) over Tesla tech head-on and by surprise (e.g., before Toyota's FCV comes out) to steer public perception away from Hydrogen and preempt a drawn-out battle. It seems like something he would do. Maybe Elon figured it out when Toyota dropped the Tesla-powered RAV4?

    I'm a shareholder, and I don't work for TM, so I'm just putting this idea together from public info. If it's right I'd say: Go Elon!

    Imagine: In Jan '15, a demo on stage in Hawthorne, like the Battery Swap demo, with a prototype 400-mile battery pack in a Roadster refilling using a 1/2 MW Superdupercharger alongside a live video feed from a FCV filling at the Torrance Hydrogen station. Who will win? Post it on YouTube. Would this create the perception Tesla needs?
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    jhm
    Suppose Tesla had a new line of battery packs with 20% more range for no additional cost to customers. They would not be able to announce this until they were able to deliver the new line. Otherwise, if they announced this say 4 months in advance, many prospective buyers would simply delay their purchase until the upgrade is available. Nobody wants to buy an obsolete product at full price. So Tesla needs to be very careful about communicating upgrades.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    dalalsid
    They don't need a 400 mile battery pack. The range of the Hyundai Fuel Cell is 265 miles. They can go head to head with that one. And put a supercharger map next to a hydrogen station map. But all of this would be stoking demand, which Tesla doesn't want to do. Maybe they can do this at Model X launch. Plus filling hydrogen is not like filling gas. It takes 10 minutes (according to Hyundai).
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    tander
    I wouldn't worry too much about hydrogen, it's cool technology and hopefully it will continue developing but it just won't be able to compete with electric anytime soon. Electric has better performance, better safety, better utility, and better economics. The Model T cost $800 in 1905 and by the 1920's it was $260 (per wikipedia), that's basically what they are trying to do with batteries+electric generation right now.
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    ecarfan
    Excellent point. Tesla may be close to a significant improvement in pack range without raising prices. Even a 10% bump would be a big deal if there is no price increase. But they can't let word get out until the new packs are in production because people would postpone their purchase decision. So they have to keep quiet and wait until the new packs are done.

    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    Cosmacelf
    Guys, it's obviously a Mr. Fusion energy device from Back to the Future and we will be able to fuel our cars with banana peels...
    �
  • Aug 5, 2014
    stephenpace
    In a world where Tesla is moving to be more like SpaceX in the patent arena, it makes a lot of sense to delay announcing novel things, if indeed the hidden cards represent a novel item.
    �
  • Aug 6, 2014
    nleggatt
    You know what would be cool... An electric motorhome...

    Why:

    A) double the floor space means ability to have larger battery

    B) all the expense if driving across the country is fuel

    C) you stop every night and.... Plugin at rv sites already

    D) buyers of high end rvs are already spending $150k+ for the unit so price sensitivity is gone already

    E) elon does have lots of kids :)


    I doubt this is it... But it's worth thinking :)
    �
  • Aug 6, 2014
    omarsultan
    You also don't want to create product overhang--if these are MS/MX relevant features, announcing them before they can deliver them will mean folks will hold off placing orders until the new tech it orderable which will screw things up.
    �
  • Aug 6, 2014
    Johan
    Agree very much. It's basically what jhm said up thread about better battery packs that could be in the works:

    �
  • Aug 6, 2014
    Robert.Boston
  • Aug 7, 2014
    xhawk101
    Don't forget showing a fuel cell vehicle in a crash and resultant mushroom cloud alongside a Model S crash and resultant fizzle:rolleyes:
    �
  • Aug 7, 2014
    austinEV
    Neverwet isn't clear, but it is something just about everyone thinks when they see the product demo'ed. I see it going on paint first where a little bit of color or something isn't necessarily bad (white on white for instance).
    �
  • Aug 8, 2014
    jerry33
    Tesla isn't trying to go head to head with hydrogen cars, they're going head to head with ICE cars. To do that they need a 500 marketing mile battery (400 real world miles). Fuel Cells are just a distraction as has been discussed on many threads.
    �
  • Aug 11, 2014
    GLDYLX
    speculation/ pay-as-you-go urban supercharging solutions for "the masses"; negotiations w/ Chargepoint, Blink, etc. in progress. /speculation

    Happy Monday!
    �
  • Aug 11, 2014
    TexasEV
    Not even a remote possibility. And besides that doesn't take R&D expense.
    �
  • Aug 11, 2014
    AudubonB
    So far,
    I like my answer best.
    As all other
    Posts here do attest.

    Hearken back
    to Answer Number Twenty.
    And contemplate
    That energy a-plenty.
    �
  • Aug 11, 2014
    yobigd20
    They've invented a flux capacitor. And lighted vanity mirrors.
    �
  • Aug 11, 2014
    jeff_adams
    Someone in another thread mentioned he had talked to a former Tesla engineer and had been told that Tesla is working on a AWD Supercar and a truck. They certainly don't want to reveal anything this early because they are very supply constrained with S & X. Why build more anticipation for something they can't deliver until the GigaFactory and Chinese factories are built?
    �
  • Aug 11, 2014
    gym7rjm
    I interpreted the supercar to be based on the Model S platform with AWD, and probably a bigger battery and more aggressive styling. This path makes a lot of sense IMO; to roll out new features that will eventually make it down stream to all Model S variants. Without a ton of complication the cars could be built on the same line and be priced like a Supercar with excellent GM.
    �
  • Aug 12, 2014
    jhm
    This makes sense. I appreciate that there is a rationale for keeping it under wraps. It is important to keep demand and execution focused on products that can be delivered within a sensible time frame.
    �
  • Aug 12, 2014
    RationalOptimist
    Whatever it is, R and D spending seems to be ramping quite dramatically... Apologies if this has already been posted or noted, but based on the quotes below, in a single 9-day period, the Q3 estimate was moved higher by $10m. S&G also moved higher. I guess it could just be that there's a need to be more conservative in a 10Q.... but it is surprising.

    Q2 Shareholder letter dated 7/31
    Q3 operating expenses are expected to grow sequentially by about 20% for R&D and 15% for SG&A. Despite a higher count of leased vehicles, investments in R&D, and geographic expansion, we expect to be marginally profitable in Q3 on a non-GAAP basis.

    Q2 10Q dated 8/8
    R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2014 are expected to grow sequentially by approximately 30% as compared to the second quarter of 2014. Our SG&A expenses will continue to grow in absolute terms as we expand our customer and corporate infrastructure globally. SG&A expenses for the third quarter of 2014 are also expected to grow sequentially by approximately 20% as compared to the second quarter of 2014.?
    �
  • Aug 12, 2014
    eepic
    nice find, that is quite significant in a short period of time. the only obvious thing that could cause this outside a new development program is a sudden match with a wave of new engineering talent (thus adding them to payroll).
    �
  • Aug 12, 2014
    WarpedOne
    How do you really know that you can do something noone before had done? By doing it and not failing.
    Those internal projects are there to explore current state of tech, engineering and estimate the size of yet unsolved problems.
    Is some engineering path worth taking or not yet?
    When a product is announced publicly there is no way of undoing the announcement. Deliver or be considered a failure.
    �
  • Aug 12, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    Which is why many start-ups are in "stealth" mode initially. Likewise, most industrial R&D is done in stealth mode: in part to protect IP, but also to avoid setting expectations that can't be met. Tesla should only be talking about things it knows it can and will deliver. Those projects are already extremely ambitious!
    �
  • Aug 12, 2014
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    If they were going to invent a flux capacitor, they'd have invented it years ago.
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    LakeForest
    From the Credit Sussie report....
    "2) Improve the car to consume less energy per mile, which reduces battery size: Wind resistance, friction, motor / gearbox efficiency, climate / heat management are the key issues. Tesla believes all can improve. Development of a custom tire they are working on can reduce friction by 20%-30%, Model X motor / gearbox is more efficient, and Model 3 will have better aerodynamics due to smaller size and more efficient battery integration. We assume 5% annual improvement going forward."

    I feel like a tire would not cost that much or be that exciting, but in a nerdy sense its pretty cool. Any one know the effects on range this could have? I would guess in the lower single digits
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    eepic
    Do they mean increase friction in tires (not sure you want a low friction tire)? In any case, I would guess that the talent base at Tesla is probably not geared towards breakthroughs in tire technology. Who knows though, perhaps they are literally reinventing the wheel :p
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    Familial Rhino
    Presumably, they want to decrease rolling resistance without compromising the braking ability of the car.
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    LakeForest
    The comment was geared as one of their pieces of decreasing battery costs. I would guess you are spot on with the lower rolling resistance equating to longer ranges.
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    chickensevil
    This is so AWESOME!


    and yes, I think they could put it on the windshield... and the rest of the car... never need to wash the car again.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh no, one of us owners (don't remember who) found out first hand how much rolling resistance impacts your range of your car. I do not recall which tires he used but it was causing a 10% hit on his range for using them. It was so noticeable that he had contacted Tesla, and their engineers were pouring over his car and somehow it got brought up what tires he was using. When he said the tires, he said the engineer nearly died. It was apparently a tire they had tested in the development of the car, and they were well known by the engineers at that point that it was just a terrible tire and is why it isn't on their recommended list of "Tesla approved" tires.
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    kcveins
    Unfortunately, this, from the website...

    9. Can NeverWet be applied to glass?

    Yes, but the glass will no longer be transparent. NeverWet dries to a Flat Frosted Clear color, therefore, it should never be applied to windshields or automobile windows. NeverWet will work on any glass that you want to have superhydrophobic properties, but don�t need to see through.
    �
  • Aug 14, 2014
    mershaw2001
    They could have a dynamic tire, one that has lower rolling friction but has higher static/slip friction, or maybe with an electrical impulse the properties of the tire change so that if you hit the breaks hard it changes the friction of the tire.
    �
  • Aug 16, 2014
    chickensevil
    I think that information is dated because if you look at the things that people have sprayed recently there is no discoloration on any of the stuff. Clothes, money, sponges, I even saw some chicken nuggets... And the people doing the testing couldn't even tell the difference visually until he bit into one of the nuggets and it clearly didn't taste right.

    In any case, I am getting a hydrophobic application put on my car from some European company (sorry i really dont remember the name of it off hand) when I get my car detailed here in two weeks, so even if neverwet isn't the right way forward for Tesla, there are other hydrophobic products out there which do work on glass.
    �
  • Aug 22, 2014
    Jackl1956
    Tesla+Apple+MobilEye

    Pure speculation on my part.
    �
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