Dec 23, 2014
3mp_kwh Is that what they know? All November, buyers were told 275 miles, at 65mph. Rob says EPA is "bogus nonsense". What if people like Rob can't get close to 275, at 65mph? Despite your rational understanding of mechanical efficiency, it isn't the rationale some of these buyers probably used. Maybe the acceleration will make all better.�
Dec 23, 2014
SteveG3 as to range confusion with P85D, at least a partial, "bazinga" from Elon:
Elon Musk @elonmusk � 11m11 minutes ago
Software update to achieve max efficiency (going to full idle on 2nd motor) is not out yet. Range of P85D should then closely match P85+.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/with_replies
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Dec 23, 2014
FluxCap ![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_udi_JuBmXDt4nsfrvviSbnfEdqnZpMvfs9BDxk3lyTJhg5WzGzm0qq1SDLBzYuJKW5eZGtcf3EwhvjVAvQUubZ0VeAJgyuoHfG7Yc9M1AuF6cdQEsOp4gI1PwCKoBY7UW4wGKleFL_Ig=s0-d)
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Dec 23, 2014
chickensevil I'm sorry but this causes more questions than it answers. Is the "range" EPA range or just their ideal? Because I thought the p85d was already supposed to have higher range than the p85? So the if this is an adjustment to EPA then that is an even bigger boost to the range right?�
Dec 23, 2014
SteveG3 OT
When I first started reading and watching interviews of Elon I found myself thinking- cross between Sheldon and Ari Gold from Entourage (though I've only ever seen maybe a couple of hours Entourage). Certain remarks from Elon to this day have me and my brother asking each other... did you hear what "Sheldon" said today (i.e. Analyst (sounding afraid he's suggesting something absurd): "so you think within ten years you can get battery costs under $100 kWh?", Elon: "Seems pretty obvious to me.").
I kid... of course, Elon is Elon, and it's awesome to have him here.
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Yes Chicken, it's merely a partial Bazinga... not a full one. I suspect the software update he is referring to will get the car up to the new EPA numbers. I also suspect that those new EPA numbers are based on something less than a 100% charge, but I couldn't tell you exactly what percent. Hopefully, soon enough, they'll explain why EPA came in at 250 miles despite same overall efficiency (89 MPGe IIRC) as original testing. I think what's most helpful is there's something we can make some sense of... max efficiency of P85D about same as P85+.�
Dec 23, 2014
Gerasimental I'm not even sure it's really a 'boost' to range. Seems more like 'They've been running at below nominal range until now because they didnt have the software yet. That will soon change and you'll have the advertised range (be it EPA or their own estimate)'. He doesn't say anything like 'new P85D will maximise efficiency and increase range to same level as P85+'.�
Dec 23, 2014
anticitizen13.7 That was my impression too from the event in October, but Tesla's website is now showing 250 miles EPA range for the P85D (with slight loss when equipped with 21" alloys), and 265 miles EPA range for the S85D. While same or only slight loss from AWD is still better than what we get from gasoline engines, it's not as impressive as the company's initial claims.
On the plus side, the reports from P85D owners indicate that overall quality is very high on the new units (specifically that the cars feel better put together and also handle with noticeably increased confidence).�
Dec 23, 2014
jhm I wonder if when they labeled the normal/sport/insane modes, they should have gone with "max range" instead of "normal". I know the EPA is bent on testing in least range mode, but Tesla should be able to make clear statements about how max range mode is able to extend the range beyond insane mode. Clearly, for the driver, when your travel plan puts a premium on range, you'll value max range mode. It seems that the EPA should be encouraging all car makers to develop driver assist features that enhance fuel efficient driving and should not penalize or overlook this in energy efficiency ratings. Autopilot opens up whole new vistas for making driving more energy efficient. So I would expect that Tesla will continue this line of development.�
Dec 23, 2014
RyanT The software that switches from 2 motor 4 wheel drive to 1 motor 2 wheel drive mode wasn't finished at launch evidently. P85D's have been running in 4 wheel drive mode all the time.
I think they did the right thing in the situation. They felt pressure to release the car on time. The software wan't ready for the normal mode where it idles one motor. In the tweet i think he's saying when they get the switch to normal mode it's going to have a 265ish mile range displayed. Hopefully the epa numbers get updated with normal mode, if not I'm sure they'll highlight the normal mode range on the product page.
It makes sense that they drove the cars with one motor powered down and knew it was more efficient before the D event and that's why they highlighted it. The only other thing I can think of would be to release it with normal mode only powering one motor but then they would just have to change it when they got their official "normal" mode software finalized.�
Dec 23, 2014
Raffy.Roma The P85D has such an high technical level to allow margin of improvements that we cannot even image. IMO we will see other improvments like this in the future.�
Dec 23, 2014
Papafox Remember that the P85D has bigger motors and different inverters than the S85D. Thus, the original claim of better mileage with the "D" series can still hold true, even if the P85D turns out to be about even with the P85+. The P85D will offer a substantial increase in horsepower plus the benefit of all wheel drive with virtually no increase in energy consumption once a little tweaking is done. Of course the driver will have to change driving modes to maximize range versus maximize handling and acceleration. As Tesla achieves this goal they will have done something incredibly noteworthy.
Looking forward to seeing the numbers for the S85D. I expect we will indeed see better mileage than with the S85. Tesla already has the basic formula for the tweak worked out, otherwise they would not have made the better mileage claims. The EPA numbers are at the mercy of the EPA methodology, but I believe that former S85 drivers will indeed notice a mileage improvement with the S85D.
Some of us have highly predictable driving patterns. My commute to work in a 40/60kwh Model S is mostly highway and I get between 279wh/mile and 282wh/mile when my drives are averaged over a week or two. Lots of other drivers commute with highly-predictable patterns, too. Even if the EPA numbers change, real-world experience will give us the answers we need, which is one of the benefits of belonging to Tesla Motors Club, where we compare notes.�
Dec 24, 2014
SteveG3 Yes... the tweet relates to efficiency improvements, but if anyone missed this in coming months there will be performance improvements (from the bottom of the order page on Tesla's website):
"The P85D top speed is currently electronically-limited to 130 mph. In the coming months, we will be able to upgrade the car free of charge to enable a 155 mph top speed. This free update will be available for the lifetime of the car (not limited to the first owner). Additionally, an over-the-air firmware upgrade to the power electronics will improve P85D performance at high speed above what anyone outside Tesla has experienced to date. In other words, the car will be better than you experienced. This free upgrade will be rolled out in the next few months, once full validation is complete."
ps... from new video early this morning, performance already looks pretty good (apparently this Lamborghini starts at $400K. "thrust mode" not engaged on Lamborghini),
Tesla Model S P85D vs Lamborghini Aventador Race - YouTube�
Dec 24, 2014
mulder1231 The way I heard Elon's explanation at the D event (I was there) of greater range for the dual versus single motor cars was that the D can have greater efficiency because dual motors provide better distribution of power to the four wheels. If one motor is turned off, how can that be more efficient? You still have the extra weight of the front motor. Hope Elon will follow his tweet with another blog on this topic soon.�
Dec 24, 2014
mejojo One possibility:
Imagine that getting from 0 - X mph is more efficient using 2 motors, and in fact using 2 motors is required for AWD acceleration and handling.
But imagine also that cruising along in a straight line in good conditions (hopefully a large percentage of miles) using 1 motor is more efficient than running 2 motors.�
Dec 24, 2014
chickensevil At higher speeds because the front motor is geared differently if you reduced power to the rear motor and increased power to the front motor you would have a more efficient system. It is a way to cheat shifting gears without actually shifting anything.�
Dec 24, 2014
vgrinshpun Somebody posting right after the event, based on their conversation with a drivetrain engineer, mentioned that gearing of two mottors is almost identical.
During the test drive with Betty Liu on the day of the event Elon said that gain in efficiency is due to the fact that a motor efficiency curve has a maximum at certain speed, and these maximum efficiency points for rear and front motor are at different speeds. So apportioning power (either 100% or just more than 50%) to a motor that is running at higher efficiency at a given speed allows for efficiency-speed optimization.�
Dec 24, 2014
chickensevil Oh, thanks for that, motor sizing difference instead of gearing. Still if they can fully cut power to one motor and let the other one take full control over the car it is likely to be the most efficient if you are just maintaining a certain speed on flat terrain. So having that option for "normal" mode is likely to be a nice benefit. I assume instead that the 85D will have two different gears since it is supposed to have the same tiny motor for both front and back. And will likely come with a "normal" and "sport" mode. Based solely on their comments about it having higher range and more efficiency over the 85.�
Dec 24, 2014
jhm This makes sense. Differences in the two motors lead to two different sweet spots. So cruising at a particular speed you want the bulk of power to go to the motor nearest its sweet spot. You only need the other for traction, substantial acceleration and regenerative braking. What continues to puzzle me is why the code was not written to optimize this in the first place. Did they know the were coding a suboptimal algorithm in the first round, or have they discovered something that they now see how to exploit for greater efficiency? Was it expediency or have they learned something new?�
Dec 24, 2014
Raffy.Roma in electronics it's always like this. First you make a design and think you made the best design. But then you realize that your design can be improved.... and improved.....and improved.�
Dec 24, 2014
chickensevil For the P85D it would be at least three different code sets. Normal, Sport, Insane. They probably coded insane first for the purposes of pushing the car to the limits... it was probably also the "easiest" since you just tell the car to always have full power available to both motors at all times. Then they likely started work on the second mode which became "sport" as a means to do a smarter algorithm that would not require full power all the time but would still have very great AWD handling. If I were to guess, the "Normal" mode came after this in the sense that they wanted to see what they could do to maximize efficiency on the car. This is likely the most complex to code because you have to take all the conditions of the car into account (traction, power to maintain a given speed during for a given plane, power to increase (or decrease in the case of regen) acceleration for a given plane, etc) there are likely many variables that have to go into that equation and it changes for every change in MPH. Clearly they knew this was a goal during the reveal event since it was a point of conversation by Elon. It was just not ready for prime time since it was a more complex algorithm to program and get right.
Anyway, that is my WAG on the process and order flow of events... and why we are only just now getting word about "normal" mode finally coming to the cars.
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And also, this! Haha! It depends on what your goal was, Power, traction, or efficiency... each have their own coding challenges.�
Dec 24, 2014
RyanT I think we are also going to see the P85D's range on the order page bumped up to 265 (if even in a footnote) once the software is released. The S85D's range will probably also get a bump once everything is finalized.
Their priority was getting the P85D released. They probably did it with rudimentary and a safe software driving both motors linearly. I don't even think it's that complicated right now, basically the same software that drives the current 85(with traction control) but going to both motors. The insane mode probably just scales it up as with the previous P85 vs the S85's code (and hardware).
The new code for normal is going to be the important and complicated one. Especially for the S85D as that's coming in March presumably with only the one mode. Hopefully having one mode will allow them to put a greater EPA range on it. I'm interested because I might buy one vs the regular S85!�
Dec 24, 2014
Raffy.Roma Agree. The difficult work is to optimize your system to get the best compromise among all the targets.....but you can also let the driver of the P85D free to maximize each target (power, traction, efficiency and so on) independently of the others.
As I said the margin of improvements of the AWD system of the P85D are so high that we cannot even image how many things can be accomplished with it.
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+ 1�
Dec 24, 2014
vgrinshpun Yep, almost everything Elon says does make sense (although, for some non-believers, not immediately):smile:
Yes, they coded suboptimal (from the point of view of efficiency) modes: SPORT and INSANE first. As Elon said during the presentation the priority for those, particularly the second one, is acceleration. He even joked during the presentation that "efficiencly is obviously less of a concern in this situation" - to a mighty laughter from the audience (I am wondering whether it is possible that some that were reacting positively to the joke are now vocal about the temporary shortcomings of P85D).
I do not know for sure, but my hunch that they released two modes, but no third one for the expediency. There is no indication that they discovered something that they did not know. In fact Elon during the presentation made a statement that they will continue to "refine" software to make dual motor operation better.
I am watching all of this in disbelieve, for two reasons: first that all of this was kind of obvious, I thought, from the get go (see my "Storm in a bath tub" post linked below), and second because TM did not communicate properly (I guess they were trying to change wheels on a bus moving at 60 mph to borrow Elon's phrase).
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/25699-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements-2014?p=831072&viewfull=1#post831072�
Dec 24, 2014
chickensevil You mean, like this?
Haha, Just kidding... way too much control. but in theory, if it works in a simulator to let people to fine tune their cars however they want... seems like they should be able to apply the same software to the real thing, right?�
![[?IMG]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_sAJxI3ySfKcoLl762TV4hwbvEernksbU0nqCQJMZ1WMzLuwtJjr0Stq4ZQRu4p87TZ10TbHRQ4PF-tm4TLwPiLIWKU1WVFq2br4cxat-4jL9PMlo_6wd9BiQ=s0-d)
Dec 24, 2014
Raffy.Roma Cool!It's just what I meant.
To let people to fine tune their own P85D would be great! Or at least Tesla could give an advanced driver software option. :smile:�
Dec 24, 2014
mejojo Curious why you say March. My estimated delivery is still February. Do you know something they aren't telling?�
Dec 24, 2014
Robert.Boston Why, the answer is simple -- with only one motor engaged, the other axle operates as a generator, refilling the battery as fast as the drive shaft depletes it. This new software upgrade will therefore give the D nearly infinite range.
:wink::biggrin:�
Dec 24, 2014
Raffy.Roma Ok I know you are joking Robert, but regen is certainly stronger with two motors.�
Dec 24, 2014
roblab It won't be any stronger with two motors: Tesla has cut the regen so no one is offended by "strong regen braking".
My regen used to be noticeably stronger on my S85. Then with new software, it got civilized, built up slowly instead of with a rush, and dropped to 60 kW max. It used to go to almost 90, maybe more. The gauge still shows the higher kW, but it never goes there anymore. I have to use my brake pedal now, didn't used to.
I think too many people (unused to regen) complained about "strong regen" and Tesla detuned it. I would really like if they would give us a choice: Standard and High. It's pretty wimpy now.�
Dec 24, 2014
RyanT Cool, I didn't know that. I just got March from the current order page.�
Dec 24, 2014
chickensevil Stronger would be the wrong word... I think "efficient" is what he should have said. Since you lose some energy to the front tires you should be able to get a better grasp on the energy by tapping into all four wheels. Although nothing has been stated officially that this is the case, it is theoretically possible.
As for decreased regen strength, mine still goes to the same mark it always has which is 60. It never went lower no matter what speed. The only thing they did was make it less aggressive when you remove your foot from the pedal how quickly it drops to 60. But it still goes just as far as it always has at the same speeds it always has.
Now, with the weather getting colder you might be limited and not realize it. The yellow line disappears a little early sometimes but it still won't do a full regen. That is a problem because of the cold not software (well technically software that is tied to the cold, but you know what I mean) unless this change happened like pre-5.6 in which case... You should be more than used to it by now... The cars stops just fine for me without ever touching the brakes.�
Dec 28, 2014
Lump Some in this thread argued the P85D range "fiasco" can be explained & it was no big deal, many "D" owners are very dissapointed & some are talking about canceling orders, yesterdays revelation of Elon deleteing his tweet may be gobbled up by the media & blogs if not worse, something to watch, Elon Musk deletes twitter posts about P85D/85D efficiency increases�
Dec 28, 2014
aznt1217 Yea they'll complain till the issue gets resolved with an update.�
Dec 28, 2014
Krugerrand Then unicorns, rainbows and butterflies.�
Dec 28, 2014
Lump What if the "update" can't resolve it? Getting to 242 miles sounds difficult at this point let alone close to P85+ range, they are waiting for their seats & now wait for this magical update too?
I was a supercharger on Saturday & met a P85 owner who is expecting a "D" in a few weeks, he thinks his range will be over 275 miles, he wasn't aware of the latest news & was going on what he was promised by Tesla..I cautioned him to not take a 275 road-trip, I mention him because he said he has 2 Model X reservations to add to his fleet of 29 cars (I saw pictures), we talked TSLA & his position was impressive as well, he was driving a loaner because his car had "conked out" on him & gave him 2 minutes to pull over before it shutdown on the freeway shoulder 2 days before Christmas, his faith in Tesla & TSLA is being questioned for the first time.�
Dec 28, 2014
AlMc I just took delivery on a D. If I drive it like our P85+ the range is about 10% less (in sport mode). I expect a firmware upgrade allowing for a 'range' mode that will give me equal or slightly better range than the P85+. Personally, I bought it for the AWD aspect and while I may be in the minority I am not upset at all with the range. It, along with the autonomous driving features will be here soon enough.�
Dec 28, 2014
Krugerrand What if I burn dinner tonight? What if the world ends at 3pm EST? What if they close down the Stock Exchange on Thursday? Really? What if...?
On topic: What if TSLA goes up tomorrow?
Answer: Some people are going to happy, some people aren't.�
Dec 28, 2014
Johan Congratulations Al! Enjoy and drive safely
Also, nice to hear you "only" experience 10% less range. This whole deleted tweet etc. mess could mean trouble short-term for the stock price, if it's not fixed very soon.�
Dec 28, 2014
mibaro2 Yup. I'll expect the stock to open lower on Monday, and perhaps recover depending on what is done with the deleted tweet.
( I just got back from 10 days away in the sun...nice runup the stock had last week).�
Dec 28, 2014
AlMc Thanks. Call me a 'fan boy' but the range issue will get fixed and the only people complaining will be the ones that can't do 10 'launches' in insane mode and still get 285 miles on that charge.
People in the 'investment threads' on this forum know that I have been very cautious about TSLA since Q3ER and short term we still could hit some bumps. But 2015 will be a good year for TM and TSLA.�
Dec 28, 2014
Johan No doubt 2015 will be a great year, but I do hope they get off to a good start by resolving the P85D energy consumption issue before Dec 31st. Either by clear and precise communications or by rolling out a FW update with Normal mode that does what it is supposed to. That way we can start 2015 on a positive trajectory.�
Dec 28, 2014
maoing Fully agree. We do need TM to execute as they promise if not over delivery. Otherwise customers and investors might lose faith and patience over the time. I think recent P85D delivery, seat and EPA issues are annoying for a lot of "loyal" customers.
Btw, one good thing I noticed from P85D delivery thread is some Norway orders entered production. So this might be a good sign that TM can fulfill all NA P85D orders several days before new year eve, and it hints the production rate is not an issue.
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Dec 28, 2014
larmor Range issue comes up again, while by data, many drivers will not use the full range on a daily basis, the current mindset of at least most customers is to have a solid range available. I suspect that is why TM started out with a 300 mile range advertised. There must be some reason they were able to launch the D with an advertised improved or no range loss.
I'm not one to criticize as i'm not a businessman, and i'm TM is well aware of the axioms: know your customer and underpromise-overdeliver. That is likely why the roadster was advertised with an upgrade of 400 miles.�
Dec 28, 2014
Vger Interesting observation, and I hope you are right. However, I just posted to that thread that our DS in Vancouver warned that Tesla is having trouble lining up logistics to get finished cars out of Fremont and to their delivery locations. Our car is still in production, one day before expected delivery. That delivery is clearly going to be delayed. Perhaps our car and others expecting late Dec. delivery will still make it by New Year's eve at midnight, but the risk of produced but undelivered North American cars seems to be mounting.�
Dec 28, 2014
maoing Yup. I only said the production rate is fine but might not be the case for delivery. Eventually the delivery number matters Q4 ER, so please keep us updated for the delivery delay status. If the delivery delay is noticeable from TMC which accounts for a small percentage of buyers, then I guess it's likely we'll see miss for Q4 ER. It's not good for the short term especiall in Jan/Feb together with P85D range issues.
�
Dec 28, 2014
Lessmog Nah, totally unpossible. That would set a whole new trend: closed for all of next year. Simple extrapolation. Very simple.�
Dec 28, 2014
Raffy.Roma According to me true problem is that with a car having such a big power and two motors like the P85D it's not easy to optimize the power of the two motors working together in such a way to optimize range. It's just a matter of time and Tesla will solve this issue. Remember it's a software problem, not a hardware problem. Meant to say that this range issue is a minor problem. Don't understand why some people on TMC is making so much noise for this matter.�
Dec 28, 2014
Krugerrand I wondered if anyone would catch the significance of Thursday. LOL!
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And with all that power, it's just naturally harder for people to not stomp it.�
Dec 28, 2014
Raffy.Roma Yes of course if you always drive using the insane mode your range will get decreased. Also if you often use the insane mode when accelerating you will get the same result. But it's also possible to use the two motors to optimize the range. I think that this is what they are doing in Tesla now.
But "to all P85D owners" please relax. You will get the "max range" firmware release soon. As I said this is only a software problem.�
Dec 28, 2014
maoing Not to say "perfect execution". Over promise but under delivery is the BIG problem for TM now, the P85D range issue is just one most recent example! Elon promised the AWD will be more efficient than RWD in D event, but not only the EPA but also the real highway range is a lot worse in P85D compared to P85. This range issue may or may not be fixed by firmware update, but one thing certain is TM didn't delivery what they promised "range" when a lot customers understood back to Oct./Nov.
Edit: Together with a series under delivery issues in 2014, slow production ramp up, model X delay, guidance cut and P85D delay/seat/range. So it's no wonder TSLA is in low 200 instead of high 200.
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Dec 28, 2014
Raffy.Roma Don't agree. As I said in a previous post in electronics it's normal to make a design (which the designer thought was perfect) and then to understand that such a design is to be improved. There are many variables that are to be kept under control simultaneously (torque, efficiency, range and so on).
According to me what happened is simple that the P85D designer understood that the optimization process has got to be done again to find a better compromise among all the features that I mentioned above in brackets.
Perfect execution doesn't exist when you come to such a powerful and complex system like the P85D. It's normal that the design gets improved during time. That's why you had many firmware release for the Model S. And be sure that you will have many firmware releases also for the P85D.�
Dec 28, 2014
Krugerrand How quickly we forget all the things Tesla has done over and above what they said they would. So easy to fixate on all the other stuff. And if/when Tesla sends out new firmware and normal mode allows for the range people expected, you'll be back to say that they did in fact deliver on this matter, right? :wink:
You don't think there's any possibility that TSLA stock price got a bit ahead of itself earlier this year? And that high 200's was just a bit heady, regardless?�
Dec 28, 2014
anticitizen13.7
I've written this before in other threads, but customer tolerance for products that don't meet advertised specifications is going to decrease as Tesla expands its customer base. People who have followed Tesla from the early days, and maybe bought an early Model S, had the expectation that the car would have some issues that would take time to resolve. The general consumer, who doesn't follow Tesla's every move, will be confused and upset.
This is not good from a marketing perspective. If someone buys a P85D and the range doesn't live up to expectations, what are they going to tell their friends? What are those friends going to think about Tesla vehicles? Even if a later software update resolves the range issue, at least some people who only learn about Tesla indirectly are going to have a negative impression.
I believe that Tesla eventually gets things right, but I follow the company closely. The average car buyer may not be as forgiving.�
Dec 28, 2014
Chickenlittle Sounds like we need a special prosecutor assigned and possible impeachment. Let's get real. Do we know The rated range yet? I bought my model s with a range from tesla of 300 miles which became the ideal range and customers had choice of this or the official range to use. Rang depends on driving done. My wife gets better than ideal range with our roadster. I don't know anyone ele that can do that. I get close to ideal range with the model s. How about waiting before everyone goes off deep end.�
Dec 28, 2014
aznt1217 The difference here is the seats are not a Tesla controlled issue. Its a recaro issue. And yes I'm pretty sure it will get fixed and is going to be batched in with Autopilot features. Its just power curve mapping which is common in most cara today. Think start stop tech and eco buttons in vehicles.�
Dec 28, 2014
FANGO I have routinely beat ideal range on roadster and model s.�
Dec 28, 2014
Perfectlogic It's hard not to have your opinion on a stock influenced by how the market moves, and I wonder what you would have said if Tesla never dipped below $240 and was around $280 right now, which is what I think would have made the most sense given the recent developements.
You have cherry picked a few negatives, but imo the positives far outweigh these. We have gotten a great guidance of more than 50% for years to come, the production rate is actually meant to double over the next year to a whopping 2k/week, that is a rate of around $12B of high margin sales just one year from now, at that point a $30B market cap would make Tesla look like an absolute steal given their growth. Another thing is the gigafactory being pushed ahead of schedule expected to start producing batteries in the second half of 2016 already. And then ofcourse there is the D event showing off Teslas advanced autonomous driving tech and the very much improved dual motor variant which surely will see a lot of demand and push up the ASP even higher, and margins too probably. These positive developements dwarfs stuff like a slight production miss for the year when the production capacity rate will be easily met and probably even exceeded. And as much horribly as it might be that the much more powerful, better handling dual motor variant doesn't also have better range (yet), I think it would make sense to save the pitchforks and torches a little while as we wait for the software updates.�
Dec 28, 2014
Johann Koeber Stock market will be closed Thursday
Hope you didn't burn dinner.�
Dec 28, 2014
Krugerrand I don't disagree with your whole assessment (didn't want to quote your whole post). But I also think that the consumer is going to change right along with the auto industry. Even with the disappointments and complaints along the way, it's virtually unanimous that the Tesla cars are the best people have owned and an obvious choice. So I think Tesla will change consumer expectations as they change the industry itself. If the product is otherwise the bomb (which it is), constantly improving and getting better, people will grumble and wave their hands but still buy the product.
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Yes, it will be closed Thursday and I'm pretty sure the world won't end. Might be going out on a limb there, but....
Dinner was very good, if I do say so myself. And I do. :tongue:
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Yes, I think some pull back. Any minute now I expect 2-3 SA articles about various P85D/Twitter stuff and for those to be picked up by the wider media. It'll be a mini end-o-the-Tesla-world smorgasbord. You're golden.�
Dec 28, 2014
anticitizen13.7 Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014
Rated miles is somewhere between in the 220-240 range from the readout in the drivers LCD panel. What P85D drivers are seeing in terms of kWh/mile is substantially more than P85+ drivers were seeing.
This has nothing to do with prosecutions and everything to do with Tesla's reputation. Another company, Hyundai, made claims a few years ago, that its compact car, the Elantra, had a 40 MPG efficiency on the highway. This turned out not to be true, resulting in lots of bad press for the Korean automaker, and worse, lots of angry customers. Ford faced similar issues with the C-Max and Fusion hybrids. Tesla management says they want the company to be better than the other automakers. So yeah, I hold them to a higher standard and expect that they provide more accurate info than Ford and Hyundai. How is it that the P85D has an EPA sticker rating of 94 Mpge, higher than the P85+, yet P85D drivers cannot match the kWh/mile of the older car?
Again, I think Tesla will eventually make this situation right. They just need to manage their information releases in a better way.�
Dec 28, 2014
FredTMC Exactly. Tesla has NOT released the "normal" mode yet for model D. It's coming and it WILL have higher efficiency than SPORT and INSANE mode�
Dec 28, 2014
maoing Did Elon or TM confirm that "normal" mode will be coming? Did Elon or TM confirm the P85D will be more efficient than P85(+) as promised in D event? Can P85D eventually achieve 275(285) miles range under 65MPH constant cruise speed as originally advertised? Although many people still have great faith on Elon and TM, but Elon and TM can't abuse such trust!
As an official product, P85D has been delivered to thousands of customers and certainly the range doesn't meet the product spec. or original advertisement. I think there might have legal case against TM if this issue can't be resolved properly in timely fashion.
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Dec 28, 2014
Auzie Agree that there are great positives as listed.
It is unfortunate that these positives have been unnecessarily tainted with less than adequate communications that culminated in Twittergate.
Less is more in this case and I hope to see much less needless information coming from Tesla in the future. Let the car speak for itself.�
Dec 28, 2014
mejojo
What exactly is your interest in continually pressing negativity, presuming failure on all fronts, to the extent of claiming abuse of trust and predicting lawsuits?�
Dec 28, 2014
chickensevil At the event it was only stated emphatically that the 85D would have better range than the normal 85. P85 to P85D I don't know where anyone got that it would be MORE efficient from just the event comments... Certainly not while in Sport or Insane mode. Please don't twist words to make it seem like TM or Elon knowingly lied. The closest thing you have to go on is the "65MPH" postings that used to be on their website. Even that changed a few times for the P85D before finally being replaced by the EPA numbers. But again, we won't know what you can truly get out of it until the finalize normal mode. Clearly they are having issues with it or it would have been released already. We will know what it looks like when it gets released.�
Dec 28, 2014
maoing If TM did execute all their promises in guidance and 2014 is indeed a "relentless growth" year, then we are probably well above $280 or even $300 now. Given that TM had a series execution errors and missed guidance in 2014, how trustable is the 50% demand increase claim and 2k/week production rate by end of 2015 claim ACTUALLY remain in question? Not to mention the even remote gigafactory pushed ahead thing, it's mostly a tactic to alleviate the impact of Q3 miss.
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This is really the thing puzzled me. If the product design is not ready or thoroughly validated, how come TM released the D model suddenly? Another big puzzle for me is the assembly line upgrade. It used to claim to prepare for X production, then suddenly the X pushed out at least 12 month from the assembly line upgrade and the upgrade caused big MESS in Q3 production. Sometimes I don't see the logic behind some TM actions especially in 2014.
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It's not my interest to press negativity. Instead I do wish all the positivity surrounding P85D. If you read the P85D delivery thread, this is the common concerns from a lot of customers. But until now, there is no official and clear communication from TM yet to rest assure the customers. I don't think this forum should be a "fanboy" type forum, let the fact speak.
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Dec 28, 2014
mejojo Problem is...you are often not letting facts speak. You interpret and extrapolate to negative extremes.
Please DO try to let facts speak.�
Dec 28, 2014
JRP3 Doesn't Tesla allow a return if you don't like the car?�
Dec 28, 2014
AlMc I agree with one of Maoing's points. Personally, I bought the D because of the AWD with the bonus of extra acceleration. However, there is the potential for short term drop in TSLA because of the discontent over
the lowering of the EPA mileage and real world perception or reality of considerable reduction in the P85D range along with some issues with the upgraded seats. Long term I believe this will be remedied by a software upgrade to include a third level of use energy use.....Standard or Economy mode....and the new seats becoming available. I don't think we can discount the FUDsters using this for some short term harm to the stock price.
As to the return policy: It is admirable on the part of TM to have such a policy. However, If a large percentage of people started returning their cars I would buy short term puts�
Dec 28, 2014
Papafox Chickensevil has hit the nail on the head here. Does anyone believe that Elon would make the improvement in range claims without evidence to back it up? He was talking about the difference in range between the 85 and the 85D. The difference in range between the P85 and P85D is a different matter entirely because of the massive jump in horsepower. It's a different fish to fry and will likely require a unique solution to find optimal results. I trust the folks who created the Model S can find a range-optimized solution that will bring improvements to P85D owners.
AIMc has a good feel for the temperament of the P85D buyers. Tesla really should have put out a short blurb that indicated that P85D mileage may be below P85 mileage, at least until range settings are optimized.
Edit: I see after viewing the P85D delivery thread that someone posted a Tesla mileage estimate for the P85D of 285 miles at 65 mph. That's going to be a challenge to meet, I suspect. Again, giving the buyers a heads up about the initial mileage they could expect before optimization would have eliminated a lot of heartache with the P85D buyers.�
Dec 28, 2014
chickensevil That's a good point. For all the complaining I have seen, I have yet to see someone post that they are returning the D because they are upset with the results of the product.
I mean the option is there, of people really thought it would be a game changer for them they would just dump the product. Most people able to afford a 130k car (many of them buying this while writing off the loss from selling their old Tesla) would likely take the hit on any loss incurred from returning the product back to Tesla. And people are always quick to post "unsubscribing" or "unliking" posts on other such things, I'm sure when someone does do a product return and "sign off on Tesla forever" or whatever silly nonsense, it will be plastered on the forums.
Funny how the car must just still be that awesome that people are willing to live with any range loss... Which might soon be fixed with a software update anyway.
Will this get spun by the media and FUDsters? Sure they will try. Will it hit on the stock price? Dunno. They just recently tried with the FUD about repair costs being a "problem" last week and we see how that turned out. If/when it does get picked up I could see a minor pullback in price but honestly we just went up about 30$ and would be due for a tiny pullback by about 5$ before continuing back up. It will make the break through the 200DMA more "clean" that way.
Edit: one final thought is that we are likely to see a surge of FUD anyway as we try to battle the 200DMA. Bears are going to try to do what they can to keep the stock under that point since it gives the appearance that we are "broken" and that the "bubble" is bursting. If we stick a solid above 200 DMA closing price it might be tough for them to drag us under again and will send all the shorts back underwater again.
I had heard that our boy Mark (LT) had a break even of like 208$. Shame he should have cashed out when he actually had the chance...�
Dec 28, 2014
Perfectlogic I would again argue that Tesla performed better than you could have reasonably expected this year as the dual motor variant came out of nowhere and really should have sent the stock up at least 10%. The target of 1k/week production rate at the end of the year is met which is much more important than missing a few weeks worth of production as that has no impact on future production, so I would say the 2k/week prediction is pretty trustworthy. I would definately call a production increase of 50% and even more than that in production rate increase relentless growth in an industry growing a couple % per year. "Not to mention the even remote gigafactory pushed ahead thing, it's mostly a tactic to alleviate the impact of Q3 miss." This is just pure speculation, bordering on FUD, sure the X have been delayed and that is unfortunate, but even without the SUV Tesla is growing incredibly fast and probably wouldn't have been able to grow production faster had they prioritized getting the X to market as soon as possible as they wouldn't have been able to expand S production as quickly, the delay is of relatively low importance. Delays on completely new car models is also very common in the industry, probably happens more often than not.�
Dec 28, 2014
maoing But several folks on the thread cancelled or delayed the order to avoid range/seat hassle. Note the folks on the P85D thread just account for a small percentage (<10%?) of buyers.
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Dec 28, 2014
sundaymorning +1
Bravo, couldn't have said it better myself. Missing a few weeks short term bc the company is bringing a better product to the market will only give the stock a higher valuation in 2015, especially when demand remains way above supply. One point most newbies don't realize is that Tesla did in fact meet its 1,000 rate per week, and from media reports, that happened last month. Originally, they targeted 800, and even that number made a huge splash within the media in the summer of 2013 (last year). As long as demand does not fall, Tesla will see wreckless growth, and if you ask me, which is better for Tesla's future, meeting deliveries or innovating the D and bringing that to consumer ASAP? the answer is pretty darn evident, as demand and favorable reviews are climbing. The thing about the investment community is that people are not as smart as some of us here. It takes them a little longer to realize the true potential of 3.2 sec acceleration or the brilliance of auto pilot cars. Which was why when the stock shot up in 2013, analysts were baffled, many of those institutions continued to look like fools when they relentlessly changed their price targets to reflect the market value of Tesla, raising their PT monthly as investors were buying hand over fist.
Ever since Tesla changed its reservation and delivery system, which makes calculations and predictions no longer reliable, investors will naturally get nervous. Bears will continue to use these types of opportunities to play on your weakest emotion--fear. They'll cherry pick data and blame it on an arbitrary reservation holder in Vancouver or how Joe Blow at such and such super charger feels... when it comes down to it, Tesla has delivered us: a gigafactory (which bears are stating it won't happen), model X in the pipeline with over 20k reservation holders (bears call it the X box and betting Falcon wings will hinder sales). 28% margins, hundreds of super chargers, world expansion, insane acceleration. Now tell me bears, which other car company gave you that this year? Oh Hydrogen is your answer? Let's not go there..
The latest argument I've heard from bears and most illogical is that since Tesla "maybe" won't meet numbers 4th Q bc of an arbitrary 500 cars, how can we trust a 50% increase for next year? We'll have you considered that even if Tesla misses 2015 target, they still be growing at 40%-45% without the highly anticipated X? How much value will that add to Tesla (negative value is what you're thinking)? Heheh Keep cherry picking data.. the more I hear these types of illogical arguments the more it confirms my own logic.
My advise is do your own HW, ignore the noise, unless Elon released some bearish data himself, then we' can talk. Otherwise, your friend Joe Blow is completely BS, there isn't enough transparency to argue a miss.
Trending now on cnbc: 2015, the year of Elon Musk
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102295918�
Dec 29, 2014
schonelucht Still, you can't ignore there is a positive bias on this forum. Positive claims meet no way the scrutiny negative claims do. The same poster who is now chided for being a fudster brought out the news of the number of China imports and no one was accusing him back then of being a fanboy despite these numbers only giving circumstantial evidence of end user deliveries. We know Tesla's major problem is production. It is right there in their latest shareholder letter. Whatever happened with the seats confirms they continue having issues. We know these issues have an impact like delaying model X yet a few more months. It's not a far stretch to entertain the possibility of these issues continuing next year and hence make meeting their 50k guidance more difficult than we originally assumed based on current run rates.�
Dec 29, 2014
Perfectlogic Most of us here are investors so ofcourse there will be a positive bias, but that doesn't change the fact that the claim of Tesla moving the Giga factory ahead of schedule is just some lie to soften the blow of the Q3 miss is complete speculation and borderline FUD. Elon certainly does not have a history of trying to pump up the stock (rather the opposite) or decieve investors so this assumption is pretty rediculous. You are welcome to call people out for making overly optimistic assumptions if you can argue your case, that and my critique of maoings overly negative assumptions is what this sub forum is for.
"We know Tesla's major problem is production. It is right there in their latest shareholder letter." It was in the letter that it would be fair to critique their production, pretty sure it doesn't say that it is a major problem. Personally I wouldn't say they have executed poorly regarding their production ramp up in general, they are growing 50-100% per year which is super fast and it won't take long for them to meet demand. Whether it takes Tesla 24 or 28 months to reach 3-4k/week production rate which should satisfy demand matters very little in the long run. Controlling the quality of the production is more important imo, which I think they have done well considering they still are a young company pioneering a new technology.
"It's not a far stretch to entertain the possibility of these issues continuing next year and hence make meeting their 50k guidance more difficult than we originally assumed based on current run rates." What? Are you arguing that demand will slow down over the next year as Tesla gain a foothold in China and roll out their infrastructure at a fast pace all over the world? They haven't even started advertising yet. You do realize they can produce 50k Model S without even expanding capacity right? Even though they are guiding for an 100% increase in capacity.�
Dec 29, 2014
schonelucht They have been a young company pioneering for a long period now. My expectations of their valuation is that they will mature one day and become an old company delivering 500k cars per year in some reasonable timeframe.
No, I am arguing they have an issue with their production possibly making them unable to fulfil market demand. They can produce 50k model S steady state, but that's not enough. They need to continue to innovate to get to model 3. It's the combination of updating their product line while increasing production that is, in my eyes, their biggest challenge. That's been true for 2014 and if things don't improve, it will be their biggest challenge in 2015 as well. It's not a bad challenge to have, but it nevertheless can be a stumbling block.�
Dec 29, 2014
Perfectlogic "They have been a young company pioneering for a long period now." 6 years is absolutely nothing in this industry, with only 2 years producing a significant amount of cars, ramping up production incredibly fast in a very capital intensive industry with a tight budget.
"My expectations of their valuation is that they will mature one day and become an old company delivering 500k cars per year in some reasonable timeframe." I don't think anyone here believes this won't happen, not sure what point you are trying to make, they don't have to grow at 200% per year to reach 500k/y before 2020, the key part of this ambition, the giga factory, is actually moved ahead of schedule.
"They can produce 50k model S steady state, but that's not enough." It is to meet guidance, which was what you questioned.
"They need to continue to innovate to get to model 3" Yes they do, have you not seen innovation from Tesla? They are running at 200 mph while their competitors are scrambling to get their shoes on.
"It's the combination of updating their product line while increasing production that is, in my eyes, their biggest challenge. That's been true for 2014 and if things don't improve, it will be their biggest challenge in 2015 as well." Tesla has succesfully increased production from was it around 600/week in the beginning of the year to 1000/week now which was their target. Not sure what needs to improve.�
Dec 29, 2014
Chickenlittle Can deny the positive bias. Read your previous posts�
Dec 29, 2014
JRP3 Providing some insight into delivery numbers is not being a "fanboy", especially since those numbers weren't exactly impressive. Claiming that Tesla is open to a bunch of lawsuits from unhappy customers is FUD when the company has a satisfaction return policy. A few have cancelled their orders, some simply because of timing, but it's not a large amount of people and no one is talking about suing.�
Dec 29, 2014
sundaymorning But we know bears never use FUD right?
Actually it's very typical of bears to use FUD, they thrive best when fear is rampant and goes unchecked.
That is why this forum exists, to deny Fudsters from overblowing cherry picked data that makes little sense. I can hardly wait for December to be over with, January will be a buying month in my opinion, apparently, others think so as well. The link below argues that investors selling in December for tax purposes can't wait to jump back into stocks when January arrives. Maybe this is why bears are coming out of recent, because they realize their days till end of December are numbered..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102292114
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Dec 30, 2014
Chickenlittle Unfortunately, at the risk of sounding paranoia, there are some spreading FUD on the site too�
Dec 30, 2014
sundaymorning A strategy that has never failed me ever since I've invested in Tesla back in 2012 is that I block out all the noise, the only person I listen to is Elon. Why? Because he doesn't come across as someone who lies to make a dime. Until this strategy proves otherwise, I'm all ears, Elon.�
Dec 30, 2014
anticitizen13.7 I saw nothing about Model S range in my news feed all day. The blog post published at Tesla's website today should defuse any potential negative fallout, so long as Tesla makes good on its promise of a software update. I have faith that all will be resolved.�
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