May 7, 2016
model3fan Link to tweet conversation- Elon Musk on Twitter
Adding screenshot in case tweet goes missing
I like his optimism!�
May 7, 2016
garsh I assume that Elon is referring to people who ordered in the U.S.�
May 7, 2016
sunilsf And, more specifically, those that live in California.�
May 7, 2016
JeffK Elon was saying possibly 100-200K in 2017 alone... if we conservatively estimate 100K assuming only minor supplier delays, that could hit a sizable chunk of US only pre-orders.�
May 7, 2016
Jason S And he has been historically optimistic. So dialing that back a little gives us:
�
May 7, 2016
JeffK Production volumes of 500,000 a year require about 41666 cars per month. The internal deadline is July 1, 2017 to begin volume production. In all likelihood it's going to be delayed and it's unknown for how long. Yet Tesla wants to be able to build internally any part that a supplier is going to offer as a low volume backup.
Let's say out of those 41666 that only 38,000 are Model 3 with the remainder being Model S and X. If Tesla could produce at that volume for even 1-3 months in 2017 you might get deliveries in much of the US.�
May 7, 2016
Twincam23 you mean before 2019.�
May 7, 2016
deonb And are previous owners. And Tesla / SpaceX employees.
And willing to take delivery at 11pm on December 31st...�
May 7, 2016
BluestarE3 I'm not really counting on 2017, but since I had originally expected 1H 2019, a 2018 delivery seems reasonable to me now. Not a current Tesla owner nor do I plan to max-out, but do live in California and waited in line on 3/31.�
May 7, 2016
S'toon Acutally, historically he's been pessimistic. He's underestimated demand.
Tesla Drastically Underestimated Model S & X Demand (Financials Flashback)�
May 7, 2016
biosci Not a previous owner, prob 100 or so in line in Santa Barb. BUT, taking delivery in Chicago. Wonder if that's a 2017 late delivery or spring 2018...�
May 7, 2016
JohnSnowNW This would really screw with my lease timetable, if true. I guess I'll have to defer...but I won't mind doing so at all. Would be great if they could actually pull that off.�
May 7, 2016
S'toon Yeah. Me too. I was doing my planning estimates on "I'll get it in 2019."�
May 7, 2016
Jason S Financially pessimistic, delivery timeline optimistic. Just means all estimates are only estimates imho.
Late 2017 works pretty nicely for me, so I hope it is correct. As existing owner and afternoon on first day reserver for Model 3, I think being around VIN 40000'ish is an ok place to be.�
May 7, 2016
Garlan Garner Wait.....Elon Musk didn't respond to the correct person in the original post. Is this a trick?�
May 7, 2016
ecarfan Elon said exactly that on the Q1 2016 Earnings Call last Wednesday. His target is 200K Model 3 built in 2017, but said it may be only 100K. .�
May 7, 2016
JeffK Yes, that's what I was referring to... "100-200k"�
May 7, 2016
Drivin "Seeing" a car is not the same as taking delivery, so they have a lot of wiggle room here.�
May 7, 2016
TaoJones I'll be happy with delivery Q1 2018. Pleasantly surprised, even. And if they deliver even 10,000 cars in 2017, inclusive of employee cars, it will represent a huge win.
This will also probably present a few buying opportunities as the stock occasionally goes on sale. That's okay too.�
May 7, 2016
houdini Yes this is the disappointing bit for those of us not in the USA. Doesn't really matter that we queued up and were first to reserve, pre-reveal, pre-US - before the rest of the the World. Unfortunately if they ramp fast and do 200,000 cars in 2017 we still won't see right hand rive ones until 2018.�
May 7, 2016
Bimbels You don't actually believe Australia or anyone outside the US would go first, from an American company based in CA, because you had the benefit of being time zones ahead?
And you realize if they ramp up fast you are getting your car a LOT faster than you would have before they revised their plans?�
May 7, 2016
AZ Desert Driver There are a lot of parts that can be made by Tesla, but I can't see them making their own tires. or Glass. They still need some suppliers to be reliable partners.�
May 7, 2016
Booga Those are likely a little more run of the mill though, right? If Michelin sells 400,000 fewer tires to Toyota and sells more to tesla, it works out pretty much the same. Some of the challenges remaining might be location (California vs Midwest, etc.) of suppliers.�
May 7, 2016
TaoJones With 6,000+ parts and pieces per car, there's a lot of room to in-house all kinds of stuff while leaving tires and some or all of the glass components to suppliers.
Elon's point notwithstanding, that 99% of a car's worth of parts does not a car make.�
May 7, 2016
eloder I guarantee you if RHD markets became Tesla's largest customers, they'd start doing at the very minimum simultaneous RHD launches with the US launches.
Until then, priority-wise it's best they deliver to their biggest markets first.�
May 8, 2016
Laban According to Tesla, 93% of the preorders comes from people that are new to Tesla. That means that 7% of the preorders comes from current owners. That's only 28 000 out of 400 000 cars. So it's probably going to be more important to check as many checkboxes as possible.
Then it's a question of the US vs the rest of the world deliveries, first 40-50k deliveries to the US ?�
May 8, 2016
JeffK I think 100% will go to the US until all US preorders are fulfilled and after that the rest of the world. Once the 200,000th car is delivered here in the US there's a short time period before our tax incentives decrease. They'd have to get out as many as possible up front to US customers. I feel that if they can properly ramp up on time then the rest of the world might start seeing their vehicles early or mid 2018 depending on what percentage of the preorders will end up being from the US.�
May 8, 2016
Laban I wonder if it would be in Teslas best interest to send as many as the first 200k Model 3's to the US. Perhaps be a bit rude to the customers standing in line at the shops in non US countries ?
Although i guess it depends on the production-rate/number at the end of 2017. I don't think that anyone in Europe expected to get their cars in 2017 anyway.�
May 8, 2016
Jayc Very very unlikely 200k US preorders will be done before international orders begin. Elon has clearly stated that there will be parallel queues after the very first company employee deliveries. I can understand US customers will want to make best use of tax incentives but for a company with longer term aspirations, that is just a short term hurdle.�
May 8, 2016
cheshire cat judging by the fuss that's been generated in the US re: government handouts, I wonder how many will get cancelled once the cash runs out? as regards early deliveries --- even Tesla's have bugs, that's why I drive Skoda rather than AUDI but at their earliest convenience would be nice
�
May 8, 2016
zenmaster I read multiple, regional queues which will not be processed concurrently, but sequentually. Where did this notion of "parallel" originate?�
May 8, 2016
melindav you still are looking at getting yours likely a year sooner than you had expected a week prior to the Q1 call, and I think it was clear to everyone in the right-hand drive world that those cars would follow the left-hand drive cars, so why disappointing?�
May 8, 2016
tga It was clear to me from reading Elon's later post-reveal tweets (around the time he announced #'s were higher than they expected; I don't have the link handy, but you can scroll through them) that the plan is not to processes queues sequentially, ie, they are not delivering every car to CA buyers before moving to the midwest/east.
They want to deliver "enough" (who knows what that number is) cars in CA, close to the factory, so they can work out early teething pains. But that does not mean all CA cars are delivered first. Once 10k, 20k, 50k (whatever the number) cars are driving around CA, and they've got all the bugs out, expect the floodgates to open.�
May 8, 2016
StraightDave Speaking of underestimated. Have any of you watched Captain America Civil War? That movie was awesome.�
May 8, 2016
Jayc Probably originated at the same place where the assumption of sequential queues originated, only difference is parallel queues will be a lot fairer to everyone concerned hence Elon's later comments suggesting that will probably be what they end up doing.�
May 8, 2016
JeffK Elon's quote on twitter suggesting he was going to try to maximize tax benefits for US customers.
Elon Musk on Twitter
The only way to do this is to hold off after the 199,999 delivery or ship only to non-US until the Model 3 is ready, and then flood the US preorder base with Model 3s all at once. If there's any risk that US preorders will not be filled in the first two quarters then you'll see 100% go to the US (for preorders only) as quickly as possible until saturated. Once market demand can be met for the US, everything else will go overseas...
As elon said, geographically your preorder order counts so for example once UK orders start shipping UK customers will get them in the fair order for their region.
One would hope any other countries which have similar deadlines will get the same kind of quick rollout treatment. The problem is if Model S and X continue to sell and Model 3 is first delivered locally to Fremont, California then Tesla will hit 200,000 EVs sold in the US near the end of 2017.�
May 8, 2016
ModelNforNerd
July 1st, 2017 is just a soft supplier deadline for now. There was no mention of the assembly line going active on that day.�
May 8, 2016
JeffK Here's the direct quote from Elon:
It's probably not wise to call it a "soft" deadline around Elon... haha. As far as they're concerned internally it's a hard deadline and for suppliers they want to hold them to that too. The consequence if the suppliers can't get their act together is that they won't be Tesla suppliers anymore. Tesla will be working with them the entire time making sure soft deadlines are met before the July 1st hard deadline.
At the end of the day there will be delays which are unforeseen/unavoidable but they want to take the July 1st date seriously.�
May 8, 2016
deonb There's at least 30'000 Model 3's in that first 200'000. Probably closer to 70'000 if they actually make the new delivery schedule.
So the sensible thing would be to ship the first e.g. 65'000 Model 3's in the U.S. (leaving e.g. 5000 remaining for some Model S/X orders), then ship only internationally until the first day of the next quarter, and thereafter do a flood of the U.S. market alone for 6 months.
If the line is fully operational @ 500'000/year they'd in theory be able to ship another 250'000 more U.S. orders in those 6 months that will all be eligible for the 100% tax break, bringing the total number of Model 3's able to qualify for the 100% tax break to 300'000+.�
May 8, 2016
JeffK Exactly, everything depends on that 199,999th delivery (not matter what model it is)�
May 8, 2016
ModelNforNerd
I'd love to see it, but I honestly think it will slide to September. That's when Tesla and Space X employees will start taking delivery.
Then local-to-Fremont preorders.
And then in Q1 2018, they start going for volume.
Of course, that all depends on the magical 200,000 number, as Elon said he would attempt to maximize that for US customers.�
May 8, 2016
JeffK Elon believes it will slip too, even still full production would be roughly 38,000 Model 3s a month to meet 500,000 a year with models S/X. He estimated 100 - 200k Model 3s in 2017 meaning you could be spot on with your estimate.�
May 8, 2016
mkjayakumar There is No Way they can make 100K next year, let alone 200K. July, '17 is the deadline for suppliers. Assume 3 months from that date to mass production. That leaves only 3 months left in the calendar year.
Musk said 100K to 200K. If you take the median number 150K, that means they need to do 150K units in Q4 next year. That run-rate is more than the run-rate they are aiming for in 2018. How is that possible?
I understand we are all a bit delusional when it comes to Muski'sms, but not this deranged. If they hit say around 20-25K next year, that will be a phenomenal achievement, and I would take that as Tesla being in the right track for world domination.�
May 8, 2016
brianman As he feared, i think you misunderstood what he was saying in the CC. In no way was we saying volume production would begin on that date.�
May 8, 2016
brianman ...matter what Elon says because even when he moves up the timeframe people are "disappointed" because of speculation about what it really means. /rolleyes�
May 8, 2016
JeffK I posted the direct quote, it's referring to volume production capability ... of course there's still a validation step before actual production.
mkjayakumar
500,000 / 12 = 41666 (Model S, 3, X) per month
if we assume only 38,000 Model 3s then 3 months * 38000 units/month = 114k which is within the 100-200k number.�
May 8, 2016
Laban Some clarification on the July '17 "impossible" date:
To sum it up:
June 2016 - Design finished
April 2017 - Tools finished (internal/external), manufacturing starts
July 2017 - Validation done (3 months), volume production starts�
May 8, 2016
FirstSea I honestly don't mind waiting until early 2018 for mine as long as most of the bugs are handled by then, if I do get it late 2017 it would be a nice Christmas present.
I guess I got to increase my monthly savings.�
May 8, 2016
Booga If the full tax credit is coming, I'm a little more flexible. If it's less than $7,500, I may hold off a few years on my purchase...�
May 8, 2016
geoffreak Thanks for posting the quote on the "impossible" date. It's really sad to see so many people on this forum misinterpreting "impossible". The quote makes it very clear that Elon means that the date seems impossible, rather than is impossible. When listening to the earnings call he really stresses that July 1st is the date they intend to achieve and to hold suppliers to.
I think the first few sentences of this quote are what confuse people:
At first glance, it seems like Elon says that there's no way to meet that date. The reality is that he's trying to convey there's a very real possibility that some supplier won't meet that date, as they have found out with the Model X. He's mentioning this on the earnings call because this is a risk that must be conveyed to investors. I think he makes it very clear that the July 1st date is the deadline and I don't believe they will miss this date (despite past evidence to the contrary with X). The X was a huge learning experience for Tesla and with the 3 being so important to their mission, they will do everything they can to make sure this launch happens without issue.
I expect the first deliveries to start mid July to employees and shortly thereafter to nearby priority reservations. There will be a period of time for ramp up, which Tesla makes clear in their 100k-200k 2017 production estimate for Model 3. With their full 500k estimate for all cars in 2018, we can infer about 90-100k Model 3s built per quarter at full production. If we take out Q4 of 2017, we have the expectation that Tesla will produce somewhere between 10k-100k in Q3. At the high end, that is Tesla building at full speed from day 1, and at the low end, that is Tesla performing a delayed or slow ramp up for 2-3 months. Somewhere in the middle results in July producing few deliveries local/employee, starting in August for the remaining priority reservations, and starting in September for line standers in the US (America's hat will likely come a few months later and Europe shortly thereafter).�
May 8, 2016
Laban Yes, and i think that the important thing is that July '17 is parts including 3 months validation. That means that they can start building the possibly missing 1-2% of the parts themselves in April if needed. One could perhaps argue that it's April + tooling & validation but i don't think it's a hard date. They will meet with the suppliers on a regular basis in the 9 months of tooling period so they will probably have some information on where the problems might be before that.
And they are making sure that they are ready to build the missing parts themselves:
So maybe i'm overly optimistic but i don't think it's impossible to meet the 100-200k cars by 2017. But i would be happy if the managed to produce 50k Model 3s by then, that would still be much more then i hoped for before the conference call.�
May 9, 2016
Raindog1 Where would you see the 2nd reveal falling?�
May 9, 2016
geoffreak If part 2 isn't the final reveal, then it could happen as early as two months from now.
If part 2 is just the production reveal (which seems most likely at the moment), then I would expect sometime between March and May of next year.�
May 9, 2016
ecarfan It seems to me that Part 2 of the reveal needs to occur 3-6 months before volume production begins, and then right away the first several thousand reservation holders who Tesla has chosen to get the first cars need to be allowed to configure those cars. Apparently those people will be Tesla employees who placed a reservation.
At the Burlingame Showroom/Service Center, a Tesla employee told me a majority of people who work there have made a Model 3 reservation. I'm guessing that Tesla could have over 6,000 employees who have made a reservation.�
May 9, 2016
MrJones390 I ordered mine pre-reveal, am a current Tesla owner and didn't get my confirmation email until 6pm April 7th. Anyone know if this makes a difference?�
May 9, 2016
ecarfan Are you asking if getting your confirmation email a week after placing your reservation impacts your delivery date? No one outside of Tesla can answer that authoritatively, and at this point I doubt anyone inside of Tesla could either. But my personal opinion is that it doesn't matter. You are a West Coast USA Tesla owner so you are near the front of the line based on what Tesla has said. How near, I have no idea.�
May 9, 2016
melindav an email went out to everyone (at least to that point) on April 7th. You 'should' have gotten an earlier one a day or three after you reserved... but no matter, your MyTesla page will show the reservation date.�
May 9, 2016
timk225 I want to get my 3 in 17 too, but it might be better to be a bit farther down the queue in some ways. I'm on the east coast and won't be ordering many options. So let the California people with lots of money be my beta testers. Let them have the first cars and get the last minute flaws fixed before I get mine built.
I'd rather wait until the Pennsylvania road salt is gone to get mine anyhow, so April 2018 is fine with me.�
May 9, 2016
BluestarE3 What date does your MyTesla account show as your reservation date?�
May 9, 2016
ecarfan Since Tesla employees were allowed to make the first reservations, my guess is that those employees on the west coast (Which is where the vast majority of them are) will receive the earliest cars built. A further incentive for Tesla to produce high quality Model 3's right away: the people building them will be the people who will be owning them!�
May 9, 2016
FlatSix911 Keep in mind that Tesla is increasing manufacturing capacity dramatically in Fremont.
Tesla�s Fremont factory could manufacture up to 1 million vehicles per year, says Musk
![[?IMG]](https://electrek.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/factory_map_large-e1462455950191.jpg?w=1920&h=1046)
�
May 9, 2016
ttupper92618 I think that you may have missed the fact that Musk has asserted they are moving up the time-table. Thus, instead of aiming for between 100k to 200K cars in 2018, they are aiming for 500K. So no, the 100K Musk is talking about in 2017 is not a greater run rate than they intend for 2018.�
May 10, 2016
mkjayakumar 150K (median number between 100k - 200k) in one quarter in 2017 .vs. 500k in 4 quarters 2018.
Do the math.�
May 10, 2016
tdelta1000 I'm fine if that is the case....as long as I get my mod 3 in the end.�
May 10, 2016
tsla007 @mk-I like your math and it makes sense to me. 115k-all preorders (before unveil) go out 2017 will make a lot of preorder people very happy. I hope he can do that. I've got a lot of money on Elon to come through.�
May 10, 2016
ttupper92618 Musk's statement was that he hoped for 100k in 2017. You are assuming that is in one quarter. Regardless, it's not out of line even if it were. Only if you assume 200k cars in one quarter is it out of line, and that would absolutely be an assumption and little more.�
May 10, 2016
ModelNforNerd
Not sure how people got hung up on 1 quarter.
I think it's safe to assume that if Tesla and their suppliers can meet the July 1, 2017 mark, then we're talking about 1 3/4-2 quarters of production.�
May 10, 2016
houdini Wasn't the quote about volume production by July 1? I took this as meaning the suppliers would be producing parts that would flow into the factory months before that and then hit the deadline with capability, not necessarily volume of goods flowing in.
It's not going to be June 30 nothing and then July 1 25,000 tyres, 25,000 windscreens.�
May 10, 2016
MrJones390 It only has the following info:
Model 3 Order Number XX Reserved View Profile
Then when I click on View Profile it just says Model 3 XX
Thanks for the help�
May 10, 2016
ModelNforNerd
Posting your full RN is bad. I recommend taking it down ASAP. It is a random string of numbers, but this particular string of numbers is yours. don't show it again until you hear from Tesla.�
May 10, 2016
Pando @MrJones390 you'll need to edit your post and remove the link as well.�
May 10, 2016
Pando And @ModelNforNerd the link on the quoted text above also.
Once you post it out in the open, it's not so easy to get rid of it.�
May 10, 2016
ModelNforNerd the link does not bring you anywhere except the login page. login info isn't embedded.�
May 10, 2016
JeffK ModelNforNerd, your quote actually contains a MrJones's link with the reservation number still in it...�
May 10, 2016
tcfersure I ordered during the announcement, probably around 120k-140k range. I live in the midwest. I know Elon has said they will deliver west coast preorders first. Does that mean that anyone that lives in California that orders a model 3 between now and release date will get their model 3 before me, or does that just pertain to the early preorders?�
May 10, 2016
MostlyStock It looks to me like the 100,000-200,000 units of Model 3 by the end of 2017 and the 500,000 units a year from the Fremont factory for 2018 are both the same goal but with one having an earlier time table. Assuming a production starts August 1, 2017 with a very quick two month ramp up I could see the following.
Average 7,500 cars a week Model 3 production (8,000 max)
Quarter Production Total
Q3 2017 14,900 14,900 (two month ramp up)
Q4 2017 97,500 112,400
Q1 2018 97,500 209,900
Q2 2018 97,500 307,400
Q3 2018 97,500 404,900
Q4 2018 97,500 502,400
The biggest problem I see is money. Everything below will require a large amounts of money in 2016 and 2017. I doubt Telsa can get unsecured loans due to its credit rating. I can easily see Telsa requiring a stock offering twice the size of the one they did back in August of 2015. The problem is I don't see fund managers wanting to double or triple down on Telsa.
By Q3 2017
Fremont factory capable of producing 8,000 Model 3 a week (total production of 10,000 cars a week or 500,000 a year).
Gigafactory and/or Panasonic 0.54 GWh of Model 3 batteries a week (27 GWh a year just for the Model 3).
By the end of 2017
Double the superchargers (~3,600 stalls).
Quadruple the destination chargers (~11,300 units).
New Stores, Galleries and Service Centers (~225 locations).
More inventory to support the above.
For the Model 3 to succeed none of the above can be cut and in fact some of it may not be enough.�
May 10, 2016
Pando @ModelNforNerd - Yes, but the RN number is still visible in the hyperlink "View Profile" in your post.
Edit: what JeffK said.�
May 10, 2016
BluestarE3 Hmm... my profile shows:
Model 3 RNxxxxxxxxxxx?
What's Next?
Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You will be invited to configure
based on the date of your reservation.�
May 10, 2016
p-f-g Why? Could you give one objective reason?�
May 11, 2016
Jayc It would have been really good if Tesla could have given out our reservation queue position considered as a single queue and normalized in time across the world. At least that gives us some idea where exactly we were when we ordered.
Of course this information is not useful beyond that but at least will give us some hope based on an official number.�
May 11, 2016
brianman Mine doesn't have a "What's Next?" section. Hrm.�
May 11, 2016
JeffK Does it say What's Next when you login to My Tesla? Mine does.
You know that'd be pretty funny if it was actually based on the date and not the actual reservation order. That would mean those people who stood in line did so for nothing.�
May 11, 2016
McHoffa Except that 115k preorders figure included all countries. I think he meant all preorders in the US would go out in 2017, which would be significantly less and much more doable.�
May 11, 2016
Zaphod Maybe because you are already an S owner?�
May 11, 2016
ttupper92618 ^ This. This seems to be the common denominator.�
May 11, 2016
BluestarE3 That was my thought as well. I'm not a current Tesla owner, but @MrJones390 and @brianman are.�
May 11, 2016
landis Not nothing. EM promised a small token for showing up, which I hope arrives soon. The curious can check out rambling thead for guesses.�
May 11, 2016
ModelNforNerd
you'll be invited to configure based on your order date.....
all of the other factors (Previous owner, geographic, RHD, option level, whether or not you stood in line) will still come in to play on when you actually GET the car.
Pre-orders will still get their cars before someone walking into a Tesla store today.
Don't confuse configuration with delivery.�
May 11, 2016
BluestarE3 I take "date" to mean time/date-stamp of your reservation. Either way, there are so many other factors (employees, current Tesla owners, West Coast US residents, highly optioned cars) that will impact the actual delivery date beyond just the reservation date. However, given the same set of other factors, it would make sense to reserve early rather than late. I don't think we'll really know how much or whether standing in line will help improve a particular individual's delivery sequence.
I stood in line because it was the one thing I could do (prior to configuration) that may help improve my chances of getting my car earlier and possibly qualifying for the Federal tax credit. I also wanted to be part of what I sensed would be an historic moment and I was not disappointed. The excitement in the crowd was palpable and I really enjoyed chatting with other people in line and telling quizzical passersby that we're waiting to order a car and not an iPhone. So, no, waiting in line wasn't for nothing.
EDIT: @ModelNforNerd explained it better in terms of the difference between the configuration event and delivery event.�
May 11, 2016
landis I get the whole configuration bit.
BTW, @ModelNforNerd, this nerd was referring to some token of appreciation as tweeted by EM, and as also noted by BluestarE3 in the thread at "Who pre-ordered before the car was seen?"�
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