Jan 29, 2015
ArtInCT Do you think that TESLA should have a Tesla Certified Used Car sales program?
Such a program would bolster the brand name and also open the secondary market to a new strata of potential owners.
Thoughts?�
Jan 29, 2015
tomas It is absolutely coming. Fact.�
Jan 29, 2015
flankspeed8 Tesla has already been accumulating inventory for this purpose. Just waiting to see when it will be launched and what will be the flow of the cars around the country. Will they all go home to California first for reconditioning?�
Jan 29, 2015
tomas Correction: it exists, was launched last Monday. I'm at sales/svc center getting aligned so I asked.�
Jan 29, 2015
ArtInCT Wow that is some news! Flank and Tomas, do you think these cars will be "reconditioned" and retrofitted or sold as is.
Sold "as is" appears to be the typical method in the industry....�
Jan 29, 2015
tomas 200 point check, anything below standard fixed, warranty extended by 2 years. Sitting next to sales guy, any more questions?�
Jan 29, 2015
ArtInCT Yes, ask the sales person if they will have visibility to all the certified used inventory all across the US or will this be local visibility only.
In other words, can they find a grey P85+ with all options minus rear seats? etc�
Jan 29, 2015
breser For that matter are they going to show CPO inventory on the website like they did with the roadster or is this going to be like inventory cars where you have to ask a sales guy.�
Jan 29, 2015
tga Can you (will they let you) post some examples with list of options and price? I'm curious how much more they are charging over typical pricing in the used market.�
Jan 29, 2015
tomas Will not be posted on site. In US can sell any car from anywhere. Call sales rep for pricing examples.�
Jan 29, 2015
TexasEV Sold as is would NOT be the typical method of a "certified pre-owned" program. That's the difference between CPO and just any used car.�
Jan 29, 2015
CHGolferJim What do we figure the convenience, immediacy, inspection/refurbishment, and warranty extension would be worth vs. open used market? $10-$15k?�
Feb 3, 2015
shadowinstallz hmm....wonder if this will be advertised soon, curious to see what the figures would be. Also warranty 2 years is on top of the 4 years i assume?�
Feb 3, 2015
PokerBroker Two years extension on the original warranty... Not a new warranty + 2 years�
Feb 3, 2015
shadowinstallz Yes. That's what I meant�
Feb 3, 2015
dennis The economics of a Tesla CPO program are very interesting IMO. This is a corporate (as opposed to dealer) program. That means that the sales price of the used Tesla goes to the Revenue line and the trade-in price + any repairs/upgrades goes to the Cost of Goods Sold line. Tesla has guided the analysts to 25+% gross margins. Question: How do you make that kind of margin on used cars? Answer: Buy low and sell high. Buy low explains the lowball trade-ins that everyone has seen recently. Sell high means they will need to make the used cars attractive through extended warranty, national inventory database to match the buyers desired configuration, etc.�
Feb 3, 2015
PlanB Tesla bought my car back last October. It was a loaded P85. My guess it will be for sale around $99500.00
It was shipped back to California to be sold once the program starts.
�
Feb 3, 2015
Lloyd If your serial number was 49509, it is for sale at $98,009�
Feb 3, 2015
PlanB Nope.
57229�
Feb 3, 2015
breser Same Tesla bought my 2 month old S85 with 2635 miles on it in November and shipped it back to Fremont. I'm assuming it's going into the CPO program.
Whoever buys the car is getting a pretty good deal with an extra 2 years of warranty since they're only losing maybe 6 months. The car was tinted, had paint protection film and opticoat on it. So even if they pay close to what a new one costs they're probably still getting a pretty good deal. However, there's no way Tesla is going to clear a 25% margin on my vehicle. They paid way too much for that. But I don't think they paid me a normal value considering what I got out of them.�
Feb 3, 2015
shadowinstallz Same here.. Tesla bought my 1 and half month old S85 2220 miles. No way they will clear 25% on mine either. My offer was close to breser's offer I believe�
Feb 4, 2015
AMPUP Tesla have taken their time due the trade in values diving the prices down after the D announcement. They will now drive used prices back up with their program, they will have most of the used car market to manipulate this. It's a smart approach to make higher margins.�
Feb 4, 2015
tomas That's diabolical suspicion. They told me that they had few cars and sold most quickly upon launching offer. That could be because their offers were low and most d buy up people went elsewhere. They are not stockpiling.�
Feb 4, 2015
CHGolferJim For 25% margin, e.g., would need to buy a "2013/2014" that originally sold for $120 at $75, and sell at >$105 if $5 in costs. How many could they buy at that price level, and wouldn't most people prefer to pay $120-$130 for a new car with customized options, all the new tech and tax credit even with a 2-month wait? Might be more viable after tax credits expire, but surely they won't hold the building inventories for 2 years.�
Feb 4, 2015
dennis Using that logic Tesla would not be able to find buyers for their service loaner pool, which they turn over every quarter. Not everyone has $120K-$130K to spend on a Model S. Plus having a national inventory makes it more likely you can find a used Model S that matches your color/options preference.�
Feb 4, 2015
arijaycomet Remember there is also supply and demand to deal with here. Right now the supply of used cars has been limited simply because a LOT Of Tesla owners trade in the newer model. And Tesla hasn't really been selling ANY used cars from trade-in only selling fleet cars (service loaners, demo cars). There have been a few threads/posts on the TMC forums where folks have seen their cars still on-app and able to note the car's location is in a parking lot in California awaiting resale.
One might assume then that Tesla is going to hoard all these cars, retaining them and causing a spike in demand that exceeds supply. This will drive the price of the used market up-- makes me think for a SHORT While that those of us with cars MIGHT be able to sell them private party for an inflated value. But then, they will "burst" that bubble the moment they start selling CPO cars. They will offer this instant demand for cars that are reconditioned, potentially with a longer warranty. That will actually drive the used car costs down-- but again, if they hold MOST of the inventory of used MS cars, they can control the flood to market, and let them out in staggered levels, to maintain value retention.
It surely will be interesting to see how this works. My 2014 had ~1500 miles on it when I purchased in in early December, it was built spring 2014, and my cost was $9,500 off MSRP because of the discount Tesla was offering. So long as they continue to offer that steep of a discount on their in-service cars, the CPO market might be an odd/tough alternative (because those in-service cars are new, and eligible for tax credit that the CPO cars won't be-- making them $7500 less "valuable" to many folks).�
Feb 4, 2015
Electric700 Wow, that is really excellent that they now have a used car program, and a smart move on Tesla's part!�
Feb 4, 2015
CHGolferJim Dennis, agree, just can't see the margin "target" holding unless they can classify various expenses outside the gross margin.�
Feb 4, 2015
eco5280 They might not make a ton of money on the first batch of used cars while they get the system up and running.�
Feb 4, 2015
breser Quoting what I said over on the investor forum where the CPO program came up...
�
Feb 4, 2015
PokerBroker Used Model S pricesare going to drop big time this summer as Tesla begins shipments of the S85D and Model X. Used P85s were in the low 70s as those buyers upgraded to the P85D... Tesla better not sit on the used cars they are buying too long or there won't be ANY margin�
Feb 4, 2015
dennis There is a lot of time (and demand) between now and this summer for Tesla to sell their inventory of CPO used cars.�
Feb 5, 2015
tomas Whoever is conjecturing they have a large inventory is incorrect.�
Feb 5, 2015
eco5280 Well, it may be large for Tesla. Their sales constitute one-tenth of one percent of vehicles sold in the US.�
Feb 5, 2015
Clprenz I just emailed Tesla, Never have gotten official info on CPO or Inventory cars... hopefully I can get some info and know if it's a good deal�
Feb 12, 2015
SabrToothSqrl I just ordered a CPO car
it became available literally hours before I called.
6 year, 100,000 mile bumper to bumper warranty
Fully factory reconditioned. Fixed scratches, put on a new nose cone, and fixed any crub rash.
I pick it up the 21st.�
Feb 12, 2015
shadowinstallz What's the pricing like one one of these? Do you mind sharing specs and pricing?�
Feb 12, 2015
647chang How were you able to get a discount. I thought tesla doesn't negotiate pricing�
Feb 12, 2015
tomas Wow, that's an awful lot of complex, sinister, and risky market manipulation to do for a relatively small amount of return. In light of Tesla's mission, the big potential returns of X, 3, getting China right, etc.... I'm hard pressed to see them spending the cycles to do what you suggest.
I know it seems from forum that EVERYBODY traded in or sold their 85 or P85 to upgrade to D, but I think it's really quite a small % (mostly enthusiasts who are inclined to be active on forum). Of those, judging from anecdote, very few chose to trade in to Tesla because Tesla trade offers were low. Most sold via private sale or to other dealers/wholesalers. So, while used Tesla market increased from almost nonexistent to small as a result of the D (I'm talking 100s not 1,000s), I believe that very small % are Tesla CPO at this time. This myth of stockpiles just doesn't make sense.�
Feb 12, 2015
shadowinstallz Anyone have info on the pricing?�
Feb 12, 2015
PokerBroker I agree with this but I expect the number of S85s and S60s being traded in to be significantly higher for the S85D and MX as they begin to ship later this year.�
Feb 13, 2015
SabrToothSqrl Two people asked... so
2013 Black on Black, 85, dual chargers, Tech, Sound, Air, Sunroof. 13,000 miles. Paint Protection Thingy. (I plan to flat black plasti-dip the whole car anyway)
$75,100.00
This is to hold me over from going nuts waiting for my X.
CPO means I got: 6 year, 100,000 bumper to bumper. Reconditioned. Paint fixed, curb rash fixed... they even put on a new nose cone because I asked. (all included).
PA doesn't require a front plate, and I don't want holes in my nose! cone.
Pricing: This was better over another used one I was going to buy:
1. closer to my house by well over 20 hours of driving
2. lower price on car (other was $1k more, but 1 year newer)
3. other car had 15,000 miles
4. other car did NOT have air suspension
5. Tesla (auto trader) gave me more for my trade in!
6. WARRANTY. The S is breaking my budget enough, I can't afford to fix crap. Up front knowing I can drive 4 more years without a worry... priceless.
7. More 'credit' from Tesla? Buying from them vs Joe Blow?
8. I've LOVED every step of the process thus far. They've been amazing, and you'd never know they were selling me a used car. They treated me like I ordered this thing brand new.
And before every one asks: YES I considered new. with AWD and Auto pilot, and the price after tax blah blah blah. I want one NOW, and will spec and buy my X after I see one IN PERSON and drive the damn thing. OK Dokie?�
Feb 13, 2015
arijaycomet Inventory car. Walk into any Tesla store and tell them you want a car in their inventory system and they can check (it is regional primarily). For me I'm in Cleveland, Ohio and my car was at a store in Chicago. These cars are service loaners or demo vehicles, discounted at a rate of $1,000 per month and $1 per mile (at least those are the numbers I've heard on these forums). My car carried a $9,500 discount off MSRP, but being owned by Tesla (benefit of not being franchise dealers) it was technically still a new car, and so I bought just before NYE so that I managed to get the $7500 fed tax credit.
Downside to inventory cars right now is that they are 6-months old, so my car pre-dates autopilot. It has the old stalks. It doesn't have some of the new updates that came in the fall of 2014. But that was reflected in the price, naturally. Really, the BEST inventory cars to buy will be later this year, in the fall/winter, when you should be able to find autopilot cars for the same hefty discount!
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Congrats! Sounds like an awesome ride....�
Mar 6, 2015
jvonbokel I'm not questioning you specifically, but quoted you because you stated it. I don't see how they can offer a longer warranty on CPO cars than they do on brand new cars. Am I missing something? Are you paying $4k extra to extend the warranty?�
Mar 6, 2015
Jgdixon It adds 2 years to whatever is left on the cars.
They haven't done a full launch yet but I am told there will be a website and the ability to search for cars in your region.
The inspection and improvement process is very high. I saw some cars in Toronto that looked better than new.
No expense is being spared on reconditioning.�
Mar 7, 2015
neroden That's kind of retro of them, isn't it? I wonder why they're doing things that way.
OK, that makes more sense. :biggrin:
Regarding the used market in general, there was a sudden supply glut due to all the people who wanted to "trade up" to the 85D or autopilot, and this will probably continue for a few months . There will be another short-lived glut when people trade for Model X. In between these glut periods, we can get a better picture of the actual state of the used market. I actually expect that there will be a solid price floor in the $65K region for years to come; it's enough cheaper than a new car that it's tapping into the market of people who want a Model S but simply would not consider paying the new-car price, and I think that market is enormous. We'll probably see some wild fluctuations above that price, so it'll matter when you sell or buy.�
Mar 7, 2015
Cyclone That's where we are in our household. Could really, really stretch and buy new (likely still an inventory Cary though), or buy used around $65k and be ready to jump on the Model 3 when they are released. At $65k, we are still a bit over 2x the most we've ever spent on a car and near 5x our normal expenditure on one.�
Mar 7, 2015
Hewlettk New Tesla owner as of today!! Fingers crossed, on a service car after 2 months of watching the Service loaner inventory and used car market nationwide.
First, the P85D. I think everyone who wanted to sell their car said they were upgrading to the P85D.
Secondly, It takes a well priced car to sell.
My universe was about 80 cars out of the 272 on AutoTrader 72 on CarGurus 60 on EBay the ones here at TMC and a few others floating around at dealers. Didn't include any Craigslist listings.
My list only included well priced cars, and I calculated the MSRP based on the options listed if someone didn't include a picture of the window sticker.
Nice to see most sellers are honest and upfront in representing their cars accurately. Anyone who didn't was called out pretty quickly especially the TMClub cars.
The only misleading listings across the internet had to do with the 40 or 60 cars. Sellers tried to cover up the fact they had the smaller battery by just not saying 85. And most of them asked 85 prices. When the 60's came to auction, even well equipped they might get to low 50's.
Interesting were the cars that people wanted to sell now. These cars were 2 to 6 months old, and they just unloaded them at prices 5,000 to 8,000 below market.
So what does it take to buy/sell a Tesla?
Clearly in the P85+ market it was price.
The P85+s sold (5) cars with (12) on the market
The average sold ask was $81,800 16,500 miles and 21 months old and $36,000 off MSRP
Verses average unsold ask $91,700 9,900 miles and 18 months old and $28,000 off MSRP
Lots of unsold P85+ "hanger queens" with 2,3,4,5,000 miles.
P85s that sold (8) verses unsold (18)
The average sold ask was $76,400 with 15,000 miles and 22 months old and $32,000 off MSRP
Verses average unsold ask $82,500 with 15,500 miles and 21 months old and $25,000 off MSRP
No 2014s sold of the (4) on the market.
S85 (12) S85s sold and (12) are still for sale
The average sold ask was $72,800 13,000 miles and 14 months old and $21,000 off MSRP
Verses average unsold ask $72,800 19,700 miles and 17 months old and $18,000 off MSRP
Buyers seemed to want the lower mileage newer cars
Of the (12) S85s that sold (7) were 2014 models.
Interesting that the owners who keep their cars the longest are the P85ers.
Seems people who get the S85 perhaps aren't as "into" their cars, think, we'll give this a try, and grow tirred of the process.
People who commit to the P85s really love the power and made a more significant investment, and stay with the program.
And then the P85+ers who clearly love their car, but are so performance oriented that they have to move to the P85D.
So happy to be taking delivery of an S85 next weeek. I hope I own and enjoy it for a long time!
Thank you for the hundreds of helpful posts on this site that answered a lot of thoughts I have had, Hewlett
P.S. Would be happy to post my spreadsheet, but not sure how exactly.
PPS I have a list of VIN numbers and Build dates that are verified with the black door jamb sticker, happy to share as well.�
Mar 8, 2015
Drucifer You are my hero. I need to be as structured and organized as you are around this.�
Mar 8, 2015
dennis Great analysis! You did a ton of work and it should be helpful to anyone currently in the market for a used Model S.�
Mar 8, 2015
jgallops Hewlettk, I am most appreciative of your work!! Many thanks for this. I have been a fence sitter for a long time. This gives me some needed data to make my own decision as to new or used or CPO or...�
Mar 9, 2015
Hewlettk Pleasure sharing the work that went into it. Thank you for the compliments
Happy to email my spreadsheet to anyone interested. Lists the cars from most aggressively priced to least aggressively priced, based on Options(with MSRP), Age(in months), Miles. Sorted by S85 P85 P85+
Includes colors and options, asking price, VIN Number web links and notes...
[email�protected]
Hewlett�
Mar 13, 2015
SabrToothSqrl
Sorry; should have clarified: 6 year, 100,000 from the DATE OF FIRST USE.
So it's a 2 year 50,000 mile extension on what the original warranty is/was.
Mine came to me 2013, with 13,000 miles, so I'm covered until 2019
�
Mar 18, 2015
jvonbokel Ahh, thanks for clarifying. That makes more sense. So if the car was 3 years old with 48k miles, you'd get 3 years and 52k miles of coverage. That still seems pretty good, and rather reasonable.�
Mar 18, 2015
SabrToothSqrl I think so, it was $1k less than the 2014 I was going to buy, AND Tesla gave me 2k more on trade, so I saved $3k AND got the long butt warranty!
I didn't care about the power folding mirrors on the 2014, I would have liked the correctly positioned turn signals, but for $3k.. I'll live. I plan to sell it / trade it in the second I can find a CPO Model X85. So I wasn't too picky on options (other than 85, sound, and tech).�
Mar 18, 2015
Seattle I am trying to decide whether to trade in or sell my s85 in Seattle or trade in. Can you est what tesla would sell a s85k, 19k miles, no tech package but leather seats and air suspension, and pano for? And I'm trying to figure markup from trade in price to their sell price.�
Mar 19, 2015
breser If you want to do it before July then Tesla is probably your best bet because they'll probably give you more than you could get in a private sale (unless you find and deal with an out of state sale). You're ultimately competing against a new vehicle sale that has the advantage of the tax credit and no sales tax. The sales tax exemption expires in July but it might be extended in some form (probably limited to the first $40k).�
Mar 19, 2015
Rama I called up the Santa Monica store and asked about CPO. They have started, but refused to share any real details. The guys only stated that they have a "robust inventory". It looks like the CPO process, at least for now, is to go into a store and check the inventory. He said that they have access to all the SoCal inventory, didn't mention nationally.�
Mar 19, 2015
PokerBroker I was recently quoted a CPO S85 with 19k mi in the Midwest with tech, pano, air, and sound for $69k... I find it hilarious that so many people are asking way more on autotrader private party!�
Mar 20, 2015
CHGolferJim
How much do you suppose that car would be worth in 3 years with 80k miles, maybe $40k?�
Mar 20, 2015
arijaycomet Something tells me that the CPO program is going to hurt private sales a LOT-- however, given the aggressive trade-in values that Tesla has been offering, and continues to offer with their 3-years guarantee, I have a feeling it will help those of us who trade in for a newer Tesla. Meaning you'll get a good price trading in, but trying to sell private party you may actually take a bit of a loss. That is in contrast to past typical pricing, historically. But who knows... should be interesting.
I have a car, here in the Midwest, that has no air/sound as the car you listed has, but has leather, and my trade-in appraisal value was more than what you have listed-- but it has only 5,500 miles. So the pricing seems fair... I just wonder how much mine will be on the flip side, for sale... as a CPO.
Typically cars in this classification lose about 20% of value their first year, and then about 10-12% each year there after. So it seems proper that a car which was probably $90k new is now $69k (as per PokerBroker's example above) as that is a 25% loss for a car that is about 1.5-2 years old (based on mileage anyhow). In 3 years that car would be as much as 5 years old, so it should be worth about 35% of original value, or $30,000 actually. However, as these cars hold good value thus far, $40k isn't perhaps too far off. Only time will tell, however, as there isn't such a thing as a 5-year old Model S yet...�
Mar 20, 2015
CHGolferJim
Thanks, I'm running numbers on a new 85D vs. CPO 85 (speculated) wondering if it might be sensible to buy a CPO for 3 years then trade-in for a new "~120D" with worked out autopilot, more color options, various tech upgrades. A month ago, an 85D/Pearl/pano/textile/matte obeche/tech was $88 after credit, so $59-$62 after 3 years depreciation using your rates = ~$29 = same as the $69 CPO......hmmmm!�
Mar 20, 2015
tomas What I'd say (after seeing your posts for a while, Jim) is that you REALLY want a Tesla, you've got the bug. So, when one with spec, milage, and features you want meets your price... you should go for it... look forward to seeing a VIN in your signature soon!�
Mar 20, 2015
arijaycomet Agree with what tomas wrote�
Mar 20, 2015
Seattle Yes, losing the WA state sales tax exemption after $40k will encourage people to trade in to Tesla instead of private sales at that point.
I found two places in Bellevue area, Platinum Motors and EASMotors that have Teslas for sale. And I'll try them out.
If someone in the Seattle area wants to buy my car before one of these dealers or Tesla gets it, a 2012 S85, 18.5k miles with air, leather seats, pano (but no tech package) contact me asap.
The prices some places are asking are crazy high, its amazing anyone would pay that price. Just do a quick web search to establish reasonable prices, people�
Mar 21, 2015
MattMDK I flirted with the idea of trading in my one year old P85+ with 9000 miles to get the D. Tesla offered $80,000, Carmax offered only $70,000.�
Mar 21, 2015
ecarfan Tesla's trade in offer of $80K for your P85+ seems pretty reasonable. I doubt they could sell it for more than $85K.
The CarMax offer seems absurdly low.�
Mar 21, 2015
CHGolferJim No doubt about it! Finger is twitching on the trigger.......
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What I think I've learned from this exchange is that with best available rough estimates of depreciation, there is not much difference in contribution to cost of ownership from depreciation between new and CPO. I did some numbers this morning for first 6 years for both cars, and it was only $8 difference. Have almost decided that at the age of nearly 58, I should go for new and keep it as long as I'm able to drive�
Mar 21, 2015
aznt1217 Wow! What year?�
Mar 21, 2015
bonaire CarMax is a public company and seems to offer low values for tradeins and outright buys. I got a low offer from them a few years ago. Never want to use them for anything. They are a used car shop with big buildings and pretty signs. They need to pay for all that stuff plus fund expansion and HQ and make the stock strong.�
Mar 21, 2015
Cyclone Much of this will be affected by the local environment and your vehicle. CarMax offered me a very good price for a VW Eos (convertible) in South Florida. I didn't sell with them and instead drove it to NC because cars are typically more expensive there. Never could find anything close to that price. Fortunately, I found a very interested private party buyer to end up at the same price CarMax initially offered me. But a convertible in Miami in October does better than a convertible in Raleigh in October!�
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