Feb 10, 2016
ratsbew From 2014 Q4 Shareholder Letter
View attachment Q4_15_Tesla_Update_Letter.pdf�
Feb 10, 2016
S'toon Figured as much. Back when Linux Mint based their updates on the update of Ubuntu, they'd always say "We'll update by the end of x month." It was always done on the last day of the month.�
Feb 10, 2016
coco81 Late... late march!!�
Feb 10, 2016
Kbra 2015 :tongue:�
Feb 10, 2016
Candleflame Basically watch it on the 1st of April in Europe. X_x�
Feb 12, 2016
Reeler I won 2 tickets to the unveiling 3/31. By all accounts it will not be a full unveiling and maybe just have a prototype, clay model or some pictures. Not sure it will be worth travelling to Fremont for that, but maybe I can be first to place a reservation?�
Feb 12, 2016
gregincal A prototype is a full unveiling. You aren't going to get anything else a year and half before shipping.�
Feb 12, 2016
Reeler Does anyone have a firm date on the reveal event presumably at the Tesla Design Studio in Hawthorne. It must be before the 3/31 orders are taken at stores.�
Feb 12, 2016
gregincal The unveiling is on 3/31. It was stated in the investor newsletter. Whether it is early in the day and reservations happen later or something else is anybodies guess.�
Feb 12, 2016
Snow Drift Seems odd to unveil and open orders in store on the same day. The event would be after 5pm PST, which is 8pm EST and the galleries are closed... Unless it's an online unveiling of just a picture or video.�
Feb 12, 2016
chingus Hi Reeler,
How did you get the tickets for 3/31 event?
Are these given to existing Tesla customers ?�
Feb 12, 2016
gregincal Why do you say that? Is there some law against showing a prototype car at 10am? Apple always has it's product announcement events in the morning.�
Feb 12, 2016
Snow Drift Well, Apple events are for the press/industry, not consumers. (Plus they are at 1 PM in the afternoon, world revolves around us haha). Tesla events are for fans and press, so it's usually after work hours. The MX event was very late at night (for EST) and I think I recall the D event being at night as well. So, while anything is possible, it doesn't fit with past Tesla style to unveil in the AM PST when fans can't attend.�
Feb 12, 2016
gregincal People are expecting thousands of customers to take the day off and line up at Tesla stores around the country, but a few dozen can't attend a morning event? I realize they don't usually do morning events, but I don't see how else it will work to do reservations and unveiling the same day as they have said they are going to do (unless it's simultaneous launch parties at each store with reservations afterwards).�
Feb 12, 2016
Tam One advantage for afterwork hours is: Tesla can recruit their own workers to stay over and work overtime to help out the event afterward without affecting their usual workdays.�
Feb 13, 2016
ZAKEEUS If Tesla were to do a late event, I would imagine the stores would close regular service hours early and re-open for the people who want to do reservations. That should decrease chaos a bit if they chose to go with a later unveiling.�
Feb 13, 2016
tga That wouldn't work for in-mall stores, which can't open when the main mall is closed (no one can get into the building to get to the store).�
Feb 13, 2016
Reeler I get the feeling development is so far behind all we will get is a rendering or photo.�
Feb 13, 2016
igotzzoom Personally, this is probably going to play out one of two ways for me. The tease/reveal/photo/rendering will be compelling enough that I'll want to put a deposit down on-the-spot. If it's too vague and non-committal, I will either get a Bolt next fall, or hang on to my Sonata for another 18-24 months, and hold out for a 3 when there are more details or walk-in availability. Not sure which way I'll fall.�
Feb 13, 2016
Reeler I think driving a Bolt for several years while we wait for the Model 3 is the way to go. The Tesla will probably be better, but you need to drive something in the mean time.�
Feb 13, 2016
S3XY My guess is that it'll just be a photo of a rendering. \sarcasm�
Feb 13, 2016
ratsbew All we will get will be journalist's zoomed in photos of Elon holding the picture on stage and his fingers will cover parts of it.�
Feb 13, 2016
flankspeed8 Which is why my enthusiasm for hundreds of thousands of reservations is not very strong. The fluid timeline makes it impossible for people who lease, to time it for the arrival of a new vehicle. But on the other hand, there is zero risk by putting down a 1k deposit to hold your place. That is what I did with the Model X. When I realized it was not the vehicle for me I cancelled and got a full refund.�
Feb 13, 2016
aronth5 I don't understand. Tesla takes reservations at stores and gallerias all day and yes that means people are putting down a reservation deposit without seeing the car. That is their choice and lets Tesla book the money in Q1. The reveal happens at night just like the Model S and X and the next day reservations can be done online.�
Feb 13, 2016
Snow Drift Then why not start now? We can't see it and can't give them money yet. They either need the event to be the night before or extremely early in the morning for EST to get a full day of orders. Only time will tell.�
Feb 13, 2016
Model 3 This is what I'm hoping for, but just not really believe....
- - - Updated - - -
What if Elon could be announcing at the unveiling that they already have X,000 reservation on the Mode 3 - before they even show what the car looks like? What PR value will that give Tesla?�
Feb 13, 2016
aronth5 There is no need for the event to be held the night before or in the morning. What does a one full day really matter when in the big picture Tesla will have people pre-ordering thru late 2017?�
Feb 13, 2016
Snow Drift It's just weird from a marketing stand point to say orders start May 31, but the car hasn't been unveiled, or is being unveiled that day...unless it is in the AM. Assuming there is more to the event than a webcast.�
Feb 14, 2016
aronth5 Tesla doesn't think like other car companies so it really shouldn't come as a surprise when they think out of the box. It is just great marketing IMO.�
Feb 14, 2016
gregincal If they really have the reservations before the unveiling I think it's lousy marketing. The number of people showing up at stores before the car is unveiled would be a fraction of the number that would show up after being excited by the unveiling. Basically just the hard core fans (the people on this forum) and that's it.�
Feb 14, 2016
SMSMD I think its the confidence in the product that people have , owners of Volt, Leaf and new to be owners of EV , along with the Tesla fans will line up. People are already making plans to go in groups and Line up. Excessive reservations with some cancellations after the unveiling will happen IMO.�
Feb 14, 2016
aronth5 I expect there will be an awfully of people who are not members of the forum that will go and order, even site unseen. Will there be lines like the iPhone, of course not, but Tesla will get more media attention with this novel approach and that is good marketing. Nothing prevents anyone who was planning on ordering at a store from doing so: the day of, the day after or any day for that matter. I don't see how this is anything but a win for Tesla. I don't know whether I'll order on line or at the store on the 31st but it will be fun deciding.�
Feb 14, 2016
joefee "Reservations require a $1,000 deposit and a trip to a Tesla store. Online reservations will be accepted starting April 1." http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/autos/tesla-model-3-reservation/�
Feb 14, 2016
SW2Fiddler March 30th for those who find the Easter Egg.
Just kidding. I think.�
Feb 15, 2016
Cruisin Hi, if you are not going to the unveiling 3/31, I would be happy to go as your representative since I live in Fremont, CA. I would take pictures for you and anything else you may want concerning the occasion.�
Feb 15, 2016
timf My expectations for the reveal on March 31:
1. It will be held in Hawthorne, not Fremont.
2. The event will take place in the evening, probably around 7 PM.
3. Reservations will be taken at the event and possibly at west coast Tesla stores following the event, but this would not be until at least 8 PM Pacific.�
Feb 15, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I think it's good to provide an avenue to get the most enthusiastic (including current Tesla owners) in earlier. My enthusiasm:distance to store is too low, though.�
Feb 15, 2016
808? snip�
Feb 22, 2016
smartypnz The reveal will be at the GF�
Feb 22, 2016
Ryan H Source?�
Feb 22, 2016
dhanson865 I think that is implied by the gigafactory reveal and model 3 reveal tickets both being given out by the referral program
Still possible that it could be either
A one event to cover both
B two separate events, one at a time�
Feb 22, 2016
smartypnz
Dartboard�
Feb 22, 2016
Brad_NC I just want to know...
What time can I give Tesla my money?!?!
I will camp (literally) in front of my local Tesla store just to get a low reservation number.
I know that I do not need a low reservation number, but I do want a low reservation number. Bragging rights, haha.�
Feb 22, 2016
Drucifer Jess (Runsilnt) and Arshia (Cyclone) and I [Andrew (Drucifer)] and a few others are in contact with store staff at Charlotte regarding the launch event / party / take our money thing.�
Feb 22, 2016
Brad_NC Drucifer, keep me in the loop. I will be part of the party! We need a Thread for the Charlotte launch event.�
Feb 23, 2016
Drucifer Brad_NC - If you are on facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/CarolinasTeslaOwnersAndFans/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/748440881913046/�
Feb 23, 2016
sandpiper If it were me I'd tend to wait until the first 2-3 months of production are complete. I've been involved in manufacturing too long; they need time to work out the bugs. Short term bragging rights, long term little, niggling headaches. That is, unless you don't mind the extra cost and hassle of going back frequently for adjustments and whatnot.�
Feb 23, 2016
marksuman I called Tesla headquarters last week (test drive reservation people) to ask this question. They weren't certain, but speculated that we would be able to give them our money as soon as the store opened for business on March 31. I'd love to know if there is more concrete information out there than this. I'm planning on lining up ahead of time at my local store.�
Feb 23, 2016
Twiglett Yep - already taken the day off work to make sure I'd be able to get there for what ever time is needed.
Not overly sure about handing over the cash without seeing some idea of what the car looks like though.�
Feb 23, 2016
vinnie97 Stop being so sensible.Unless one is ordering with max options, I also see little reason to be first in line.
�
Feb 24, 2016
Drucifer It's a deposit. If you don't like the car, the worst that happens is Tesla holds on to your $1000 for a couple of weeks.�
Feb 24, 2016
eisbock I don't understand this line of thinking, yet everybody keeps recycling it. It's still beneficial to be first in line even if you're ordering a barebones base model. Sure, you won't be first off the production line for max options, but you'll be first off the presses for barebones models.
The earlier you reserve, the earlier you get your car. Simple as that. This is important if you're eyeing that tax credit.�
Feb 24, 2016
Ryan H I wonder how many people are looking to get a barebones Model 3 because it's what they can afford, expecting the $7500 tax credit, not realizing that if the barebones is all they can afford, they probably don't make enough to get that much money back from the government.�
Feb 24, 2016
tga There's a decent chance there won't be any credits left for them by the time their barebones 3 arrives, anyway.�
Feb 24, 2016
Max* Agreed, I think with a barebones 3 best case they'll get a reduced credit, realistic case they wont get any credit at all.�
Feb 24, 2016
eisbock It'll be rough being a barebones buyer, but lots of people will be mid-ranging their options.
So they're not maxing out, but they're not barebonesing it either, which means they'll want to reserve ASAP to squeeze in at the end of the tax credits.
Plus, this is all speculation. Barebones buyers might just get the tax credit. We don't know.�
Feb 24, 2016
Twiglett Oh I know, but it would be be nice�
Feb 24, 2016
Ryan H The question we need to ask these people is how much will they really get based on their tax liability.
(OK, we don't need to ask, but it seems increasingly important that people need to realize the amount they get back will be limited to their tax liability.)�
Feb 24, 2016
Max* I know this gets thrown a lot "well the barebones buyers might not be eligible for the full tax rebate". So I thought to myself "what's the minimum income someone needs to earn to pay $7,500 in federal taxes"?
And from a quick google search, a single person needs to make at least ~$57k, and a married couple needs to make at least ~$75k (that's not counting kids, 401k deductions, student loans, mortgage, etc.).�
Feb 24, 2016
MiamiNole Getting a barebones vehicle or only having the budget for a barebones vehicle doesn't automatically correlate to not making enough money to be able to qualify for the full tax credit. They may have other expenses or spending priorities, or simply don't care for spending the money on all the options and would be fine with just the base Model 3 (some people on this forum have stated as much).�
Feb 24, 2016
Ryan H That is true. I just want to make sure people don't get the wrong idea about how the tax credit actually works.�
Feb 24, 2016
Rockster This is in contrast to a conversation I had with the Dallas gallery people. The staff at the Dallas gallery said that they probably wouldn't be able to take reservations until after the unveiling had occurred, but they'd know more as the date approached. Clearly this was speculation, not news, so who knows who will be correct.�
Feb 24, 2016
Lonnie123 In regards to the bare bones and the tax credit... I'm a generally frugal guy and I just dont like spending that much money on a car (Model 3 will probably be the largest splurge of my life). Drove a Corolla for 11 years, and leased a Prius for $200/month in waiting for the 3. Honestly if it ends up costing much more than $35k I'll probably lease a car again waiting for the Model 3 used/cpo/loaner market to pop up. It will suck to wait, but I'll get there eventually, and perhaps they will have ironed out some issues by then.�
Feb 24, 2016
vinnie97 Yea, I'm too poor to get the credit (it will be a Herculean stretch just to afford the barebones M3). On the flipside, you better hope you're near a service center for any teething issues for those brand-spanking new M3s.�
Feb 24, 2016
TslaIsFuture Those who think they don't make enough money to take advantage of the tax credit should consider drawing on their IRA's in amounts needed to take full credit. That is what I am doing for buying 2 M3's (highly optioned to ensure greatest possibility of early delivery of course, for whatever it is worth).
I know of 23 people just in my city that are planning on going to the nearest store to put down deposits and over 30 people at my company. Take this and apply all over the world..... The # of deposits made within the first week will make headlines for months. Just my prediction.�
Feb 24, 2016
ratsbew Same observation here. Model 3 is going to be bigger than most people imagine.�
Feb 24, 2016
eloder Just curious, can tax due from capital gains be counted for the 7500 credit?
If so, I may as well take some nice profits from the Model 3 release, to help buy the Model 3 while simultaneously getting a nice tax credit�
Feb 24, 2016
ratsbew I'm not a tax expert, but any federal tax liability should be offset by the $7,500. I should have bought an EV in 2015!! Ouch!�
Feb 24, 2016
S3XY There was another thread where someone pointed out that any penalty for early withdrawal cannot be offset by the EV credit. However, I would think that the actual capital gains tax can be. I think the capital gains tax is at most 20% so if you needed an additional $4,000 in tax liability you would need capital gains of at least $20,000. Plus, as previously mentioned, you would lose the early withdrawal penalty which would eat into your $7,500 savings. But I'm no tax accountant so you should seek the advice of one before going through with such a plan.
** Edit **
After googling IRA taxes I see that you incur regular income taxes when withdrawing funds from an IRA. So your tax rate would be your regular income tax rate in that year. The same premise is true as calculated above but the tax rate would be different. The early withdrawal penalty, if you are under age 59 1/2, would be 10% of what you cashed out. In my example that would be $2,000. If I'm right, it doesn't seem to make sense to do this. But if you are older than 59 1/2 it would make sense. You will eventually owe taxes on that portion of your IRA anyway so you might as well increase your tax liability in the year you can offset it with the EV credit. Plus you could reduce your auto loan by the amount of your IRA withdrawal.
Ugh, hopefully I didn't make things more confusing rather than clearing this up. :redface:�
Feb 24, 2016
Reeler Just lease the car and presumably Tesla will reduce the price equal to the credit they receive. Buy the car at the end of the lease.�
Feb 25, 2016
rnelsonee Withdrawing IRA money does not affect the tax credit
That won't work - it's hard to ouitsmart the IRS�
Feb 25, 2016
tga Not necessarily. Many lease companies artificially inflate the residual on EV's by 7500 to lower the amount financed. They take a hit when they sell the car, but it's offset by the credit. But if you try to buy at the end, you pay the inflated residual, not the fair market price. There was some discussion here about this a while ago, but I can't find it.�
Feb 25, 2016
S3XY It was said in another thread that this is the case for a Tesla lease. The buyout at the end is the residual value plus the EV tax credit. It's spelled out in the lease agreement.�
Feb 25, 2016
Max* I wouldn't do this, unless you're retired.
So a person takes $20k out of your IRA, gets the $4000 they need to get the "full" EV credit, but then needs to pay state and federal taxes on the $20k, plus an early withdrawal pentalty, plus lose out on the time the money is not invested in the IRA, plus may be required to pay to buy and sell stocks in their IRA, etc.
It seems like too much paperwork/hassle to potentially save a little bit of money.
I agree, only do this if you're retired.�
Feb 25, 2016
Reeler The LEAF and RAV4 weren't done that way. Just another reason for not leasing.
In any event, the 200K limit will be reached for Tesla before anyone is delivered their M3 in all likelihood so folks should just get used to it not being available. With the tardiness of Tesla on every other car, it is not worth fretting about.
Maybe that is why the Model 3 is going to have a base price $2500 less than the Chevy Bolt. From the sentiment on this forum, being $5K more expensive than a Bolt is a non-issue.�
Feb 25, 2016
Max*
Even better.�
Feb 25, 2016
ProphetM You can convert money from your traditional IRA into a Roth IRA. This would not be penalized and I think it counts as normal income in the year that you do it. I don't know if there are limits on the amount that can be converted. I did $10,000 in 2014 and therefore owed more on my 2014 taxes.�
Feb 26, 2016
Lonnie123 And you have to wait 5 years before pulling that money out without penalty.�
Feb 26, 2016
ProphetM Hmm, I thought it was 7 years. Anyway, the goal is not to have the money available for pulling out; it's a way to make your tax burden higher, if you need to in order to utilize the full $7500 tax credit, without it really costing you anything. (and of course saving you money down the line.)�
Feb 26, 2016
Transepoch Five years from first putting money in, so start your accounts now and get those clocks ticking.�
Feb 26, 2016
flankspeed8 This is a good strategy to recharacterize a Traditional IRA into a Roth. Yes, the amount of the conversion would be taxed at your marginal rate, thus it would inflate your tax for that year to help you qualify for the full deduction.�
Feb 27, 2016
smartypnz Will GM have the advantage of the Tax Credit being available? How many EV's has GM built at this point? (not saying this would be a deciding purchasing factor as the Model 3 will most likely be superior in so many ways - I am just curious how the marketing pitch will pan out)�
Feb 27, 2016
dgpcolorado Just to be clear with the terminology: You can "convert" some or all of a taxable IRA to a Roth IRA by the end of the tax year. If you decide that you want reverse it you can "recharacterize" some or all of the conversion (reversing the conversion) by taking the money from the Roth IRA and putting it back in the taxable IRA by April 15 of the following year.
The amount of money that you convert from a taxable IRA to a Roth IRA becomes taxable income in the year of the conversion. Roth IRAs are not taxable at all and can be passed on to heirs [meaning that, unlike a taxable IRA, they are not subject to "required minimum distributions" (RMD) beginning at age 70�]. One can withdraw money from a Roth IRA beginning five years after it is established. [There are other rules wrt age and whether or not one withdraws contributions or earnings that I won't try to explain.]
As I found out when I did it in 2011 to qualify for the federal tax credit, a downside of conversion is that you might end up raising your tax bracket, which lowers the effective value of the credit you receive. If you only need a little boost to your income and you stay in the same tax bracket, this concern isn't an issue.
For the model 3, I think I would just wait until the tax credit drops to 50% or 25% since it isn't tax efficient (for me) to do another IRA to Roth conversion large enough to qualify for the full credit. I would also qualify for the substantial $6000 Colorado state tax credit, which is "refundable", unlike the federal tax credit.
For someone who wants to eventually buy the car, it appears that leasing to get the tax credit won't work. Tesla appears to add the tax credit to the residual value of the car, thus greatly lowering lease payments, but they tell me that the buyout price would still be the residual plus the tax credit amount, which is unfair (the leasing company keeps the credit). If this is true (I'd have to see wording from an actual lease to know) and they don't change it, leasing to buy is not a good strategy. (It also may not work well for Coloradans because leasing appears to greatly reduce the state tax credit.)
FWIW. All this IRA stuff is subject to income limits (but high income people aren't the ones concerned about having taxes high enough to qualify for the tax credit), so YMMV. Talk to a tax adviser or read https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p590a.pdf�
Feb 27, 2016
xhawk101 Keep in mind after the 200,000 us sales expiration the discount is phased out it doesn't go away immediately�
Feb 27, 2016
Reeler GM has sold the Spark under the program. Very low sales.�
Feb 27, 2016
dgpcolorado I believe that Volt sales also qualify and add to GM's total sales for the tax credit.�
Feb 27, 2016
ZAKEEUS Yes, Volt sales also qualify. They have sold just over 80k in the US�
Feb 27, 2016
EVNow If the 200k cap stays - I expect it to be increased or in someway modified - then GM, Tesla & Nissan will not get to 200k until after 2017/18 or so.
So far (roughly)
Nissan : 90k
GM : 90k
Tesla : 60k
There have been a number of optimistic projections that show tax credit evaporating in 2017/18 for all three. I'm more skeptical. I think it is quite likely that all three will not reach 200k until a year or two into their next gen EV sales. Even then, some kind of change in federal tax is likely that will extend the tax credits (may be to 1M for all OEMS together or some such level playing field for all OEMs).�
Feb 27, 2016
dhanson865 Tesla is likely going to be closer to 70,000 in a couple of days.
66,634 was the Jan number
Model 3 pre order and tax credit ? has the math. I'll update it again when the scorecard gets updated.�
Feb 27, 2016
dgpcolorado I can't see that happening. I would guess that both this Congress and the next one would be quite hostile to any such changes, save for eliminating the tax credit entirely.�
Feb 29, 2016
Model 3 Looks like Tesla Norway - in cooperation with Tesla Owners Club Norway - have plans on arranging such an event with online streaming from the unveiling. At least they are checking if it is any interests.
http://www.tocn.no/2016/02/tocn-live-model-3-launch-event-i-samarbeid-med-tesla-norge/ (Link in Norwegian).
Details like where or when is not determined yet. Does not looks like we here will be able to reserve the car in the shops March 31st. But maybe will may reserve on the event? This will probably be by night time - already on the April 1st? - here in this time zone.�
Mar 1, 2016
dhanson865 I've cleaned up the post and updated for the Feb numbers. It appears I had one too many quarters of credits in my math.
The current totals at end of 2015 + partial 2016 would be
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 Feb 68,584 (3,170 for Jan/Feb 2016 + prior years)
Do the math if Tesla is doing less than 26,000 a year US in 2015 how many years will it take to hit 200,000 US sales? They'll ramp up S and X production but there will still be plenty of discounts on Model 3.
Lets say 50,000 US for 2016 and 75,000 US for 2017, 25,000 in the first quarter of 2018 finally triggering the phaseout.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q4 2017 possible deferred shipping to EU/ROW to avoid crossing 200,000 in US
Q1 2018 (200,000 mark crossed, some trickling of Model 3 in this quarter, maybe 500 a week for 7,500 with full credit?)
Q2 2018 Model 3 with Full credit (no signature series per Elon, maybe 1,000 to 2,000 a week for 25,000 with full credit?)
Q3 2018 50% of full amount (will they be making 3,000+ a week by then? Maybe 12 weeks worth is 40,000 Model 3s with half credit?
Q4 2018 50% of full amount (maybe 60,000 model 3s with half credit in this quarter?)
Q1 2019 25% of full amount (maybe 75,000 Model 3s with quarter credit)
Q2 2019 25% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with quarter credit, with extra production going outside the US)
Q3 2019 no credit
all in all they might get out 35,000 with full credit, 100,000 with half credit, and another 175,000 with quarter credit?
Shift the trigger earlier by one quarter and 25,000 less cars get a full credit, shift that trigger later by one quarter and 40,000 more get a full credit. Just depends when they can start cranking out Model 3 en masse and when the trigger is.
So unless my trigger to expiration math was right before my old post was off by quite a few cars on the credits. The new numbers have a lot less credit flowing around for Model 3.�
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