Oct 28, 2014
Jackl1956 More and more I realize that the Bear attacks/Short selling will continue to grow and intensify. That said, I would like to begin lurking on their websites to anticipate their attacks (timing my future buys). Any advice on sites to peruse?�
Oct 28, 2014
jhm For sighting bears in their natual habitat, Seeking Alpha comes to mind.�
Oct 31, 2014
Bunky Indeed. Maybe an idea to consider author's rather than site's themselves.
A couple come to mind - Paulo Santos (seeking alpha), Anton Wahlman (the Street). Also the website 247 Wall st usually has a factually incorrect negative spin on most or all of their TSLA articles.
These are not the best places to find genuinely feasible Bear theses but when all the Bears have is to spread misinformation then I see that as a positive indicator.�
Oct 31, 2014
30seconds follow Realist on twitter�
Nov 1, 2014
Theshadows Just read John Peterson's articles.
Umm. He's been pretty quiet lately.�
Nov 1, 2014
Johan NYT. WSJ. Other mainstream, ad financed media. Of course no way to stay ahead with these sources. Doug Kass on twitter and blog. Citron research.�
Dec 24, 2014
bsd Saw the following about Citron on Yahoo:
Hong Kong Securities Watchdog Sues Short Seller Citron Research: WSJ - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com�
Dec 24, 2014
SteveG3 seems anything owned by Rupert Murdoch (Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch, Barrons) is quick to go with negative spin. of course, there's Cory Johnson (at Bloomberg) as well.�
Dec 26, 2014
FrozenCanuck Another bear who seems to spend all of his time reading and then twisting into Tesla FUD is Mark B Spiegel on Twitter and uses handle "Logical Thought" on seeking alpha. He post so much nonsense and continually accuses Musk of being a liar. I highly suggest reading what he writes to be on top of the best FUD out there.
- - - Updated - - -
I almost forgot another guy who constantly manufactures Tesla garbage: Bertel Schmidd - very actually be on Twitter and he posts stuff at DailyKanban.com
He loves to cherry pick and make straw man arguments.�
Dec 26, 2014
32no The List Of Tesla Bears
Oooh. I have a few good ones.
Mark B. Speigel (Logical Thought) likes to write FUD on Seeking Alpha and tweet FUD on Twitter, and he sometimes retweets FUD from two of his bear friends. We all know he is part of a hedge fund that is short Tesla. Here is his Seeking Alpha page, and here is his twitter.
Realist has an inverted Tesla logo as his profile picture on twitter and his handle is @TeslaAgnostic. He has a twitter and I'm pretty sure he is hmpfff on Seeking Alpha.
Bertel Schmitt loves to post Tesla FUD on Twitter and Daily Kanban.
Anton Wahlman is famous for irrelevant comparisons that pretty much boil down to "Look at this Honda Civic with better features than Tesla!". Here is his seeking alpha page and he also writes for the street (his profile).
Ok, the next one is a real doozy. Alberto Zaragoza Comendador is quite the character, he writes that pretty much everything Tesla does is a hoax or fraud, and the largest of which is the battery swap. He has a blog which is really extreme, and a seeking alpha page.
John Peterson used to be quite active, but he is not worth linking to because he has kept his mouth shut about Tesla for a while.
Most of us know Paulo Santos, here is his twitter (which doesn't have much about Tesla) and his seeking alpha page.
Some honorary mentions are various users who often comment on Seeking Alpha (in no particular order):
tomfrompv
Frank Greenlaugh
Cparmerlee
Davewmart
chipdoctor
Tales From The Future
pot pie
user 7369811
I need a bailout
solucky
tippydog
slevental
Robert Duval
Occam's_Razor
kimboslice
I think it is important to keep tabs on the short thesis, and it is important to know their arguments, because if you are hesitant about any one of their arguments, you probably should reevaluate your long position in Tesla.�
Dec 26, 2014
techmaven 32no, that's quite a list. I'm sure quite a few those people are proud to make your list.
As far as timing goes, these shorts have no additional information and are likely slower to the data than we are here. Their arguments are worth exploring though if you are not familiar with them. I started in November of 2013 by dissecting John Petersen's arguments and I found that he wrote in a very convincing manner using sources that seemed reputable. However, he was banking on people being lazy and not actually looking up the sources of information and dissecting them which is unfortunately, usually true. Essentially, he was very good a cherry picking information and weaving a good story around it but in the end, wove specious arguments.�
Dec 27, 2014
FrozenCanuck 32no - very good list! I'd like to see more folks on Twitter busting the FUD some of these guys post.
With thy respect to Anton, I know a lot of people can't stand what he writes but I will at least acknowledge he does not lie and he sometimes writes about the bull case such as the SC network. He just doesn't look at valuation the way I do, i.e. strange comparisons to cheaper gas cars and market cap to number of cars sold stuff. I think he is wrong but I don't consider him anywhere near the company of Spiegel, Schmitt, and other guys.
Tweet away when you see Tesla FUD�
Dec 27, 2014
MSMike Thanks for this thread. IDing the obvious shorts is a good start yet there are the wolves in sheep's clothing. Some posts on the Tesla Motors Forums need to be watched also. Particularly the titles of the threads and number of them to make things appear bad. These trolls work as a team also, bad cop, good cop creating an issue out of a non-issue. The Forum is open to all. Probably some are already aware of this.
I wonder if anyone sees a short squeeze possibility near term.
I joined this club only recently but have a P85 approaching 20k miles. The most awesome car with super high quality. Even small issues were corrected immediately by the SC.�
Jan 1, 2015
FrozenCanuck We have another bear to add to the list. Some criminal names Sam E Antar. He is on Twitter under this name and is apparently a white collar criminal ex CFO who committed various security fraud crimes. It's all self disclosed on his profile. Anyway he supposedly does forensic accounting now and he's harassing Elon via Twitter. He talks a lot of **** but as far as I can see he has posted zero actual data to support the idea that a Tesla has done anything wrong on the accounting.
I know my way around financial statements and have a very strong background here. I think the guy is totally full of it. Interested to see what others here find.�
Jan 5, 2015
Noble Ninja Specifically to SeekingAlpha, I completely agree with you on this list, great job.
Also add Andreas Hopf to the list. He is such a try-hard FUDster that it's hilarious (only occasionally posts on TSLA, a lot more FUD on BBRY).
Logical Thought should really change his name to ILLOGICAL thought as his arguments are baseless and are so twisted they don't even make sense anymore. Cparmarlee is the most ridiculous, calling Elon Musk a big liar and manipulative salesman, cherry-picking facts and twisting them to the point of pure humor. I only now read SeekingAlpha for the humor, 100% of which come from short investors.
Also, when TSLA tested the $200 level and intra-day dipped to $194, within 30-minutes of market open, SA felt this was "news report" worthy and published this, garnering over 200 comments:
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2181025-tesla-motors-tests-the-water-below-200
The vast majority of the comments were from shorts and FUDsters desperately trying so hard to break down this $200 psychological support. Despite all the fear-mongering, it was actually a big sign of a bottom when shorts become the loudest (we rallied back up from here within that week, nullifying the whole point of publishing this "news report" and 200 comments of "debate", which were all for nothing).�
Jan 5, 2015
tftf Just curious, is anything negative, even slightly negative, in regards to Tesla, just considered and labelled 'FUD' now without looking at the actual arguments and assumptions the person is making?
For example, I recently discussed that the Model 3 could be late in my opinion with its introduction likely pushed back to 2018-2020 (i.e. Tesla won't make Model 3 sales by 2017 or otherwise would likely hike the $30-35k base price, see the Future Cars thread in this forum for more details).
I also discussed back in 2014 on SA that the Model X will likely be delayed into 2015. I got many replies at the time that this was pure 'FUD'. The late 2015 date is now confirmed, maybe it will even slip further...
Same for my predictions and articles in late 2013 on SA that the Gigafactory will at least take 2-3 years until completion and cost at least $5 billion when including the Model 3 car tooling. That was also called 'FUD'...
Some Tesla bulls should maybe consider not to immediately dismiss any criticism concerning the company, the stock price or Tesla execs as 'FUD'.
PS: If some readers don't know: tftf = Tales From The Future. I won't post further comments for now.�
Jan 5, 2015
chickensevil TFTF, I have said before you are one of the more sensible shorts out there. Negative comments are not immediately called out as FUD.
While FUD is common amidst Shorts, not all negative things about Tesla is baseless. I would prefer arguing with you about most of your comments since you at least tend to provide an interesting perspective... Even if I don't always agree with you.�
Jan 5, 2015
techmaven
No, not at all. Matter of fact, this forum has plenty of people criticizing all sorts of Tesla and Tesla product related topics. Many of the people here thought long and hard about both the company and the products before committing large sums of money for the products. It is a very different dynamic and while there is fanboism, I find the bears on any number of forums that discuss Tesla to be far more fervent and committed to thier biases, in no doubt fueled by the monetary bets they have already made. Cherry picking facts to try to prove a negative narrative is far too abundant. On Seeking Alpha, the bears are the ones running amok. Here, we have dissected so many of the Tesla related topics at extreme depth and so it is easy to be more dismissive of portly thought out negatives since, well, you can go through the hundreds of pages of archives.�
Jan 5, 2015
32no TFTF,
Get real. Tesla has a large fan base, and what some call FUD, others agree that it is a legitimate concern. When anyone spots what they think is FUD, they call it out right away, and that person isn't always representative of the community as a whole.
On another note, I think its unreasonable to expect Model 3 to be delayed so much. The most Tesla ever delayed anything was 2 years with the Model X, and the Model 3 was originally supposed to come in 2015, now its 2017.�
Jan 5, 2015
chickensevil When was it supposed to come in 2015? I don't remember this? In regard to delays my window is actually hopeful of a late 2016 launch and planning for a late 2018 launch. Any later than that and I fear what the competition will finally have time to cook up. By that point Tesla needs the Model 3 to keep competition on their toes because by that point we are expected to have at least one if not two "model S" competitors.
Anyway, just my two cents. And I thought that the Model S largely launched on time... The issue was ramping up for more than just like 10 hand made cars a week (yeah the first few cars were practically made as if they were one off designs). I think at most it was delayed by 6 months. Unless I am totally having terrible memory. It has been a good three years, haha!�
Jan 5, 2015
tftf For example here: Tesla Says All-Electric 3-Series Competitor Due By 2015
The timeline made sense back in 2011 and 2012. Many will remember that the Model X was supposed to ship by 2013 at that time, the Model 3 (Bluestar) was supposed to arrive 2-3 years later (2015).
I follow TSLA since around 2007-2008 and I have seen so many dates slip and promises made (I could understand these issues much better when Tesla was a small private company with cash-flow issues before the IPO) that I became quite cynical of their deadlines and announcements...adding 3-4 years to all their dates usually gives a good indication when products will actually arrive.
Anyway, I will be back and update my Model 3/other TSLA estimates once the Model X price is known and the X car actually starts shipping (maybe Tesla will also unveil the Model 3 design and more details this year).�
Jan 6, 2015
chickensevil Thank you for the article. I figured it was a truthful statement, I just couldn't recall the details. I think when the X slipped back any hope that the model 3 would hold a timeline didn't make sense until they get the X out the door. Since it is likely shared resources working on new designs so the X of course takes priority. I think the vision has shifted as well because everyone (including Tesla) has been surprised by the demand of the Model S. This is what I largely attribute to the majority of the date slips on the X itself. And then when they realized the Model 3 couldn't make it without the gigafactory which caused additional delays on that front (as we are now tied to the timeline of the factory coming online).
Delays (or potential delays) tend to be fair criticism of Tesla, and I generally don't take issue with most of those comments simply because it is perhaps their greatest weakness. What I do take issue with is all the other twisting of the truth and downright lies that people push... which on the surface seem like they hold merit but quickly fall away as soon as you even begin to cross check the information for validity. There are only a handful of shorts that don't heavily rely on these tactics to scare people into selling... and that's quite sad.
I rather welcome well thought out and reasoned negative articles and comments on Tesla because it helps keep my bias in check. Unfortunately, I don't see that very often.�
Jan 6, 2015
Auzie Imo delays are the result of Tesla shooting themselves in the foot. They are on a steep learning curve regarding making good cars, scaling up manufacturing and establishing reliable yet efficient supply chain.
Tesla needs to communicate what is coming, however there is no need to tie themselves with unrealistic timeframes. They are in uncharted territory and there are no industry benchmarks that they must follow.
As time goes by and they stumble across more problems their communication will improve to more accurately reflect their projections.
I fail to see why 'missed' timelines bother people so much.�
Jan 6, 2015
dha
I don't mean nitpick but the article you linked does not prove that anybody from Tesla ever claimed that the Model 3 would be shipping in 2015.
From your link:
[Tesla's affordable car], according to Tesla�s chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen (via autocar), will be a BMW 3-series competitor that the Californian automaker hopes to launch as early as 2015.
So your link is citing a second-hand autocar source for 2015.
The autocar link here is broken: http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/tesla%E2%80%99s-electric-3-series-rival-%E2%80%98-sale-2015%E2%80%99
Google's cache is here: Tesla's electric 3-series rival 'on sale in 2015' | Autocar
No direct quote from Franz at all indicating a timeline for Gen III release. Only reference to 2015 is in editorialized headline and lede: "[Model 3] could launch as early as 2015" which for all we know could've been Franz' timeline for a prototype.
Just some really sloppy journalism from greencarreports. They link to an autocar article with no direct quote from Tesla management indicating 2015, and they spin "could launch as early as 2015" into "Due by 2015"�
Jan 7, 2015
tftf I just picked the first link I found, I'm pretty sure about the 2015 promise.
There are many sources about original launch timeframes for the Model S for 2010-2011 and for the Model 3 (or Bluestar at that time) by 2015. This was later changed to 2016; it's still 2017 according to their latest filings. I'm pretty sure the 3 will slip to at least 2018 at this point given the delays with the X.
This is far from one single claim or missed date coming out of Tesla that I picked out.
For example, the third-generation car was once supposed to ship for $20-30k:
Elon Musk Envisions Tesla Electric Car as Low as $20K Tech News and Analysis
Do I hold up this interview from 2008 against Tesla almost seven years later? No, but it shows Tesla has a history of overpromising on key deadlines and prices.
As I noted above, I could better understand this behavior from a small, private start-up in a precarious position (especially in late 2008) looking for investors and fighting for its survival. But Tesla is now a public company with a huge market cap and various obligations to bondholders who invested billions etc.
I don't think these continued promises and over-optimistic projections that can't be kept help their credibility going forward.�
Jan 7, 2015
Auzie I agree with you that Tesla may benefit if it were more cautious about projections. However, if projections were made in good faith and eventually fulfilled, then there may be some benefit in releasing information about coming products even if it is difficult to get the time right.�
Jan 7, 2015
tftf Here's an additional source about the original Model 3 schedule. Interview from September 2009 with the CEO himself:
Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk | On Point with Tom Ashbrook , towards the very end of the podcast
September 2009 plus five years would even be late 2014.
I'm not sure what the 'secret project' was about that was supposed to accelerate this launch schedule on top of that (same interview)...
Teslas Elon Musk on a sub-$30,000 electric car | On Point with Tom Ashbrook
Anyway, that's all history, but it shows Tesla a long list of overly optimistic projections. Not everything a bear says or every argument he makes is simply 'FUD'.
I will now await the Model X launch and pricing to update my projections for the Model 3.�
Jan 7, 2015
chickensevil I think most people give them a pass on some of their delays because I would rather them tell us something rather than keeping us totally in the dark. Just keep updating us on the timeframe and if it slips, you better have a good reason, but let us know that reason and give us a new time.
So far, all the major slips have had good reason (at least in my mind). So I don't fault them for anything.
For example getting the S out on time, a lot of that had to do with supply issues. It was well known that they put in an order for like 1,000 of something and then would only get like 10 of them. The second issue regarding timing came down to them trying to figure out manufacturing. The big players have all been making cars for around 100 years, so of course when they set out to make a new car they don't generally have major manufacturing hurdles. I think this is one of the biggest issues (and you can look at this negatively and that would be fair) is their ability to properly ramp up their volume. I think volume ramping and factory expansion has been their biggest blunder of all. Each time they try to make a major leap forward in volume it is always met with hiccups and hurdles.
As far as the initial X delays. A lot of this was because they were originally expecting global demand of the S to be at 20k a year. Now it is pretty much 20k for just the US without even breaking a sweat (although our current delivery numbers puts it at 17k, there is a lot they could do to push that number up by 3k in the US if they wanted... plenty of US markets left un-tapped). So the X was originally critical to them getting to the Model 3 since they needed an extra 20k production. At one point there was even talks of doing a coupe on the Gen 2 platform, which has never materialized, although there are totally some old concept photos of a 2 door model S looking car. Anyway, point is, the global S demand is already higher than they even needed to make it to the Model 3 so they pushed off the X largely for that reason. Again, coming down to the same core problem of ramping up the factory, this is causing issues with them getting the X out the door, more than anything. Yes, they are taking their time on the design as well, it isn't like they don't have plenty of time, since they still haven't fully stretched out the Model S demand, so if they made the X right now, today, it would take away from S sales, simply due to a lack of production capacity.
As I said previously, the Gen 3 platform has been delayed, again, because they largely don't have capacity to handle the expected demand for such a car. If they were originally expecting about 100k Gen 3 (I don't know, just guessing and extrapolating based on what they were originally thinking about for the Model S) and you realized that you had room for at least 300k+ Gen 3 (on top of everything else) wouldn't you think stop and wonder where you were going to get all the batteries from? Panasonic was on a path to be able to support like 150k cars (give or take) from their capacity... way south of what they really need.
About the price changes. They technically got the 50k car out the door with the 40kWh battery. If they released a similar 150 mile range Gen 3 I have no doubt that they could get a price around 25-30k which would be about half the price of the original 50k car. But because 1: demand is going to be there for the higher price. 2: margins are better on the larger pack cars and extra options. 3: 150 miles really is kinda crappy (although still better than the best competition currently)... and the list of reasons can go on... There is no reason to release such an animal. The 200+ mile range car is going to require a closer to 35k starting price.
Anyway, Yes, you can legitimately complain about all of the above. And I don't particularly take issue with those complaints (generally speaking), what I hate is when people try to make up random crap to throw at Tesla just to scare people off and that is usually what I see most people call out as FUD. I wish we could have reasonable arguments/discussions about real problems and issues, but instead you have people talking about "demand is a problem" (and making up BS numbers to support that argument) or "XXXX new car is going to be a Tesla killer" (Oh, look... production date maybe of 2017-2020... yeah, real scared)... It is arguments like these that really frustrate me, because I can't have a serious discussion about ACTUAL problems regarding Tesla and trying to analyze if they have a real path forward to fixing those problems and if that timeline coincides with something that would make investment worthwhile.�
Jan 7, 2015
Auzie CE, I agree with all your statements above except this one that I quoted from your post. Imo they have done exceptional job in ramping up their volume in record time. The actual timeframe taken to do the job is exceptional. The only reason some people perceive it as a blunder is because of a self-prescribed unrealistic timeframe.
Also, all car manufacturers have similar manufacturing hurdles on a daily basis. Hurdles are inherent in the process and can not be engineered out, they will never go away. The hurdles arise from having to juggle the need to keep extremely lean process with low inventories in balance with having reliable complex plant fully occupied and churning out quality product. What will go away with learning is unrealistic timeframes.�
Jan 7, 2015
stoebs I would further Auzie's comments with the reminder that Tesla's direct sales business model is unlike anything that any of the existing Auto Manufacturer's use. If Chevy misses Volt production by 2,000 units one quarter but makes it up in the next, nobody would even notice, because you have hundreds (thousands?) of units out on dealer lots that act as a buffer. When we have an entire community here that crowdsources P85D delivery times down the the nearest hour, any production delays are under a microscope that the traditional MFGs would never have to deal with.�
Jan 8, 2015
chickensevil Whether it is unrealistic time frames or not at the very least these are the more legitimate complaints against Tesla which was pretty much all I was trying to get at. I obviously give them a pass on all of it because I understand that manufacturing is hard enough as it is and Tesla is really new to manufacturing their own products that themselves have thousands of parts and take DAYS to build from start to finish. I get that, which is why I don't really complain about it, it was just in response to TFTF's comments more or less about us calling everything FUD. Which is simply not true.
So please don't let anything I posted detract you from Tesla as that was not my intent. But it does help to understand potential weaknesses in the company so you can have a better grasp on their future valuation. Tesla themselves admitted that it was fair to criticize their production since that is really what they need to boost. It is fantastic that they have higher demand than they ever dreamed of, now they need to work on servicing that demand (which they are).
Anyway, I just wish this was what people focused their efforts on instead of downright lies about the company...�
Jan 10, 2015
Jackl1956 Three Triggers That Could Spark A Selloff In Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA)
If a media outlet subtly incites action that would cause a stock price to decline, is it an egregious violation of SEC rules?�
Jan 10, 2015
Johan The Bears will now push hard to spin the story of how the GM Bolt will kill Tesla. Smart move from GM stating they plan to sell it at $30-35k with a "200 mile battery" - if they mean it I'm sure they'll be loosing money but it might be worth it PR wise.�
Jan 10, 2015
Robert.Boston While I agree that the FUD press will say this, it's about as sensible as saying that the existence of the Ford Focus puts BMW's 3-series out of business. The bigger story is that Ford feels it worthwhile to tout this planned vehicle. That says a lot about how tesla is disrupting the established car makers..�
Jan 10, 2015
tftf The GM Bolt is just one of many longer-range EVs coming. Not the lone GM Bolt model will put pressure on TSLA, cheaper batteries supplied to various global car makers (LG, Panasonic and Samsung have signed up most large car makers interested in EVs and PHEVs) will.
Elon Musk may get his wish, there will be more and more EVs and PHEVs sold over the coming years (although I expect BEVs to gain more marketshare only slowly, in the single digits until at least 2025) but more sales may have the opposite effect on Tesla stock.
The more competition, the more margin squeezes and price fights/rebates, especially once Tesla launches the cheaper Model 3.
Which results in a return to the mean for Tesla's share price and overall valuation in my opinion. Thanks for all the fish.�
Jan 10, 2015
vgrinshpun How can car with the maximum planned production of 20K a year hurt Tesla Model 3 sales with planned yearly production of 500K a year?
Chevy Cruise is much cheaper than a BMW 3 series, but nobody in their mind would suggest that Chevy Cruise is threatening to BMW 3 series.�
Jan 10, 2015
32no Really? Name one car that is targeting the Tesla Model 3 other than the Bolt. Everything that is being promised now for 2018-2021 is all "competition" for the Model S. Lets get real here: its really tough to compete with the Model S now, and will only be tougher when 2018 rolls around.�
Jan 11, 2015
Auzie Just to add to this argument: model S is a great car as it is now, but it is highly likely that today's model S will be inferior to future model S.
Tesla is on a steep learning curve regarding its control software for their dual motor drivetrain. That D drivetrain is an uncharted territory. By the time competition models come out, Tesla engineers will have at least a few years of learning and development built into all Tesla's models, including model 3. Having cars on the road and releasing incremental improvements via software upgrades rapidly accelerates the learning.
In summary, all this learning will position Tesla far ahead of the competition in respect to performance.
The competition is still focusing most of their R&D on ice.�
Jan 12, 2015
chickensevil Range will likely keep going up being the current levels until we achieve recharge times of around 10 minutes and we get 300 miles of real range on the car at highway speeds. Someway or another I am certain tesla will go for range improvements and would surprise me if one thing to keep people hooked on the model s come 2017 is a longer take choice than on offer from the model 3. Which puts them ahead of the planned competition as well.�
Jan 13, 2015
AZC Talk is cheap and discussions can get boring, so why don't we put money on the table? I'd bet $100 on each of these things.
Before the end of 2015:
-The vast majority of Superchargers still won't have solar panels. I know, I know, even if all of them had panels it would be irrelevant, but still. Most of them won't have panels.
-The vast majority of Superchargers still won't have batteries. (I thought you could survive a zombie apocalypse thanks to these things - Elon's words).
-The Model S won't be able to change lanes just by tapping the turn signal.
-The Model S won't be even one pound lighter than when it launched in 2012. In fact, it will be heavier - although Tesla will try to hide this fact and obscure data.
-Their retractable metal gear solid snake will still be a tweet.
-Their amphibious car won't be a thing.
-Tesla will not make any significant money (whether you define it as revenue or profits) from energy storage. I'll let you define "significant". Oh, and if Tesla refuses to disclose financials about this I win - if they boast about their storage business then they have to show the numbers.
Some of Tesla's projects are really for the long term so let's give them a few more years. Before the end of 2019:
-The Hyperloop won't have begun construction.
-Tesla will continue to run its factory, offices, etc. off the grid like everybody else rather than off batteries.
-Their cars will be unable to drive themselves "90% of the time". (He actually claimed this for 2015).
You may have noticed I made no mention of the patents. While there is no doubt it was a hoax in 2014, the thing could change any time - perhaps someone is actually interested in Tesla's patents and will get to use them for free. Though the guy keeps insulting our intelligence (3:14).
"Musk doesn't seem to know who has taken up Tesla's offer to open patents"
Finally, there is the battery swap. I bet Tesla will not do a road trip demoing the future (200 miles + swap + 200 miles). Certainly not with journalists inside the vehicle. I'll let you choose the deadline for that.�
Jan 13, 2015
MSMike Short Interest was reported the other day jumping up to 25+million and taking more days to cover. As usual many posts on the Tesla forum are quite negative and invoking GM EV as a competitor coming in two or more years. These posts take up space and make the forum polluted. Should be a good time to pick up some more stock. Perhaps we are close to capitulation. I am interested in timing a squeeze which is difficult to predict. TA has not been very useful in these situations since the shorts have such a large position.�
Jan 13, 2015
32no Seeking Alpha bears are currently cheering and jeering about the Tesla news in China and how they "warned investors months ago". Also there is in general a derisive and disparaging attitude in their posts. This is definitely a battle ground stock right now, and the longs are losing...�
Jan 13, 2015
CatB Only in the short term... Which is sort of self-contradictory :biggrin:�
Jan 13, 2015
32no I think too many of us understate the importance of short term movements... Many investors here have margin accounts and options, which are both dangerous to long positions in the case of a short term collapse.�
Jan 13, 2015
MSMike Margin for short positions I believe is a very big problem especially on a "shares not available to short" and a move up. This has caused large run ups in the past devastating the short positions. Long positions have been holding for years and won't sell for years. Barrons is one who rate it a potential 10X profit potential in 8 years. I know I will buy on drops and wait ad wait. It is fun to watch this happen again and again in TSLA.�
Jan 13, 2015
JRP3 It's been that way from the beginning. I am expecting a strong bear attack tomorrow, and if it happens I'll be buying. To me as a long that means I'm winning either way, If I'm right I get some more cheap shares, if I'm wrong the shares I already have hold or go up in value. I don't think the fundamental picture has changed, China was always a bit of a wild card in the short term.�
Jan 13, 2015
32no Well, as they say: "Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered".�
Jan 13, 2015
Krugerrand They also say: "It's not over until the fat lady sings."�
Jan 13, 2015
JRP3 And: "A stitch in time saves nine."�
Jan 13, 2015
chickensevil This had to be one of the best coordinated and well timed attacks I have seen on this stock... Period. It hurts so much, to me, because it has a bit of truth to it. Of course the best lies always do. In this case they are not being totally honest by reporting EVERYTHING and that is what really irks me. There is no way the stock would have tanked with proper reporting... Sigh... All I wanted was a live stream... This wouldn't have happened if the press wasn't in control of what information we did get. Making it even worse... I hate mainstream media. I said it elsewhere but this is 2015 and everyone has a smartphone capable of posting a live stream to twitch or some other source... Seriously don't know why we couldn't have some kind of video... So upset about the embargo of information from us "little people".�
Jan 13, 2015
ggr And "It's better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick."�
Jan 15, 2015
v12 to 12v This reminds me of what my grandfather always said. "Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see."
It also remind me of this: Jim Cramer explains how the Stock Market is Manipulated - YouTube
It is amazing that it is still legal after all these years and how well hidden those that are setting up investors are hidden in the trading data.�
Jan 15, 2015
Auzie Money flows abundantly on stock markets. It is no wonder that many people engage in dubious activities trying to exploit the system. At least bears are engaged in an overt game, investors can easily sift through various propaganda if they wish.
It is far more difficult, perhaps impossible, to protect investors from very sophisticated hidden predators. TSLAopt earlier recommended a book, 'Flash Boys' by Michael Lewis. The book details predatory practices of High-frequency traders and how regulators, brokerages and banks, perhaps unintentionally, colluded in building the system that is rigged. Highly recommended reading for any investor.�
Jan 15, 2015
GreenT Shhhhh. Don't encourage him!
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Jan 15, 2015
JRP3 A good Petersen FUD piece was usually followed by a nice price rise, so I say bring it on :biggrin:�
Jan 15, 2015
SamusAranX We could probably make a decent list of SeekingAlpha commenters who throw ******** right back at the shorts, making us look bad in the process.�
Jan 17, 2015
Auzie Jim Chanos might be covering TSLA short
Jim Chanos might cover TSLA short position
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Feb 3, 2015
chickensevil Was sifting around through Twitter feeds and found this guy:
BillK (@Bi11K) | Twitter
He is quite bearish on TSLA, Not really buying any of what he is selling, one thing to note though is his technical "read" on the current breakout of the wedge pattern is this:
It is interesting because if that is the case, look for us to never break 225. I would expect that level to be a decent resistance point... Not that I buy into this guys analysis, but just for opposing view's sake.�
Feb 3, 2015
austinEV That may be true but not insightful. I think in hindsight what happened is a sag between the end of a long Euphoria rally that started in 2013, and a revaluation due when the X starts to ship mid 2015. That is (in hindsight) a reasonable thing for the share price to do. Doesn't reflect any substantial meaning on the valuation of the company or it's future prospects. So his read amounts to "in the last few months the stock goes up and down but is trending down". True; not insightful.�
Feb 3, 2015
chickensevil Fair enough. I mean my immediate reaction to the post was this is just grasping at short straws. But just for a sanity check thought I would post it here. Especially when taken with many of his other comments on TSLA... He really doesn't make good arguments.�
Feb 3, 2015
Causalien He is right if one subscribe to the wedge theory. I for one never care about wedge for trends. What I do believe in is a flag formation that will lead to a decidely up or down move.
Usually a person would draw lines to support the theory though, wonder why he didn't.�
Feb 3, 2015
chickensevil He is arrogant enough to think that everyone shares his views and therefore the picture is "self-evident"? Just a guess.�
Feb 3, 2015
Causalien Ah well, it could work for his strategy. Mine works with mine and the bankroll management I employ. He's probably one of those people who follows only one TA indicator.�
Feb 4, 2015
FrozenCanuck As far as Twitter goes, Mark Spiegel takes the cake for the worst kind of bear on TSLA. The best bears are bearish on a stock because they fundamentally don't think the business can make as much profit as the stock price implies, and that's the basis of the argument they stick to. And that's fine. A market is made by differing opinions. Spiegel, though, chases Musk around on Twitter and replies to practically everything like a little baby. Sarcastic comments insulting the product, calling Musk a liar flat out, and more. He also seems to massively distort things even if they aren't relevant to the stock just so he can appear consistent ... yet the only consistent thing I see from him is inconsistency about what part of the Tesla model he doesn't like. He's ridiculous. Anyway, follow him so you can straighten his crap out when he tweets.�
Feb 4, 2015
JRP3 In case you aren't aware he also posts as "Logical Thought" on Seeking Alpha. Equally misinformed and obnoxious there.�
Feb 4, 2015
Auzie With social media and connected devices, some individual's descend into pathological becomes public.�
Feb 20, 2015
v12 to 12v The most active basher I have ever seen posted this on youtube. I doubt has never even seen a Tesla. The guy seems to post 24/7 and comments on just about every article that comes along with variations of the same name. He certainly appears has an agenda. It may just be notoriety. If so, I apologize for posting this.
He takes posts that appear negative, valid or not, and re-posts them elsewhere. Every time I have seen the posts they were out of context.
Tesla Model S THE BRAKES ARE STILL DEFECTIVE - YouTube�
Feb 20, 2015
JRP3 Before I click on the link I predict it's keefwivannef or some other similar screen name of his.
Yup. He's insane, pops up on SA and some other sites.�
Feb 20, 2015
sundaymorning Keef is a nutcase, or a paid basher. Once in awhile I have a little fun with him, I enjoy infuriating him as much as he enjoys bashing on Tesla at the yahoo investment forums. Before Keef was another idiot, or more likely, same idiot with 2 SN, known as kbod7777 or something to that extent. Kbod use to bash Tesla every 5-10 minutes, posting as much BS as possible when the stock was in the 20s-30s. When TSLA shot up, it was too much for kbod, the tables turned on him and I suspect he changed his SN to Keef.�
Feb 20, 2015
Auzie
I have difficulty imagining anyone paying for incoherent ramblings
Also, a paycheck can not inspire such hatred. More likely, the inspiration for hateful ramblings is very personal�
Feb 21, 2015
v12 to 12v If you do click on the link, in the comments you will see a revelation from a TMC member. Apparently this guy Keith guy is in Australia and tries to peg green energy businesses as frauds. Apparently he takes donations to chase green "scams". Maybe he got donations from people who like to short Tesla. Perhaps he got on board with their game. Who knows!�
Feb 21, 2015
JRP3 Oh I'm quite familiar with "Keef". He has a book on Amazon http://www.amazon.com/Great-SunCube-Swindle-Keef-Wivaneff-ebook/dp/B00GPAGPR6
I think this review sums it up:
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Feb 22, 2015
v12 to 12v Case closed.�
Feb 26, 2015
Auzie Whitney Tilson 'capitulates' on Tesla
Whitney Tilson, fund manager of Kase Capital, declares as follows:
Kudos to Tilson for admitting such a huge mistake, a bit late but better than never.
Perhaps the ability to self-correct enabled Tilson to still make a positive return last year, 14%.
Note: 14% return on a large fund is much harder to achieve than say multiple return on a small investment.�
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