Jan 10, 2016
tanner 
Elon Musk's Direct Tweet�
Jan 10, 2016
BertL ...a few more points from Elon's Press Conference to go along with that Tweet: Elon Musk predicts a Tesla will be able to drive itself across the country in 2018 | The Verge�
Jan 10, 2016
Caligula Sweet, adjusting for Elon time, this should be a thing come 2020.�
Jan 10, 2016
ratsbew Hmmm, this makes me think about delaying my Model 3 order because I want this feature (Full Autopilot) on my Model 3.
The world is going to be so different in 2020. I just hope I don't die an accidental death before stuff like this happens.�
Jan 10, 2016
Sasmania Incredible... and sad for us early adopters. My old school pre-AP P85 will be worth about $9,000 in trade by the time this comes outHappy for everyone else though!
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Jan 10, 2016
Spyder14 Very interesting & exciting but sometimes I wish he would not over-commit or over-promise because others may take the opportunity to rub his nose in it.�
Jan 10, 2016
Mark Z It's happy for us too! We get to enjoy the best today and trade-in for a better tomorrow. It's called, progress! Let's all sing along...
Carousel of Progress - Theres a Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow - Sherman Brothers Version - YouTube�
Jan 10, 2016
gizmoboy Full AP hardware should be available on the 3 at launch, I'd think, 18-24 months out...�
Jan 10, 2016
tanner I'm assuming this would require AP hardware beyond the current AP 1.0 spec. Any thoughts?�
Jan 10, 2016
RDoc And a few years after that, if you're going to be able to summon your vehicle from another planet!
That's assuming you didn't leave it plugged in of course.
Speaking of which, and sticking to the continental version of summoning, presumably that means the auto connecting/disconnecting Supercharger rollout will be well underway in 2 years.�
Jan 10, 2016
mmccord Well this will save them a lot of money on shipping cars around the country. All they have to do is send you an email 'Your car is complete at the factory. Summon at will.'�
Jan 10, 2016
supratachophobia No, no it won't. And no, it won't do it on current hardware. Always a catch with Elon.....�
Jan 10, 2016
mmccord That was a joke...�
Jan 10, 2016
tanner I laughed�
Jan 10, 2016
ScepticMatt Riiight. Maybe in martian years.�
Jan 10, 2016
BertL Even though I believe there is a lot of work to get bad/questionable weather conditions handled, as well as more complex driving situations like 4-way stops, roundabouts, crazy pedestrians, map databases that don't match reality, how agressive a driverless car should be or not in various scenarios to keep itself and surrounding traffic flowing, etc., I suspect the technology will be ready-to-go before the legislation and liability discussions are completed.
For global companies like Tesla working this, its got to be hard enough to build the tech to then handle multiple countries, languages, laws, signage, etc., let alone just here in the US, perhaps 50 States each with some sort of variation how autonomous vehicles are allowed to operate or not -- so a single car can drive itself from the West to East coast. We'll see. It's certainly interesting times we are a part of.�
Jan 10, 2016
ratsbew While I know it's a joke....I mean....yeah, that could work eventually.�
Jan 10, 2016
woof Sounds like they'll need to get that Trip Planner fixed, else the summoned cars will be circling the Super Chargers, charging for 5 minutes, leaving, the coming right back!�
Jan 10, 2016
Beryl Maybe by the time x-country summoning actually comes out (well beyond 2020) but your pre-AP P85 will be worth >$40K in a couple of years, IMO.�
Jan 10, 2016
bhuwan Doubt it.�
Jan 10, 2016
GlmnAlyAirCar LOL!!�
Jan 10, 2016
jordanthompson Soooo, if your car is stolen...�
Jan 10, 2016
Electric700 I know Plugless Power is already working on a system for the Model S and probably the Model X too. You can buy a wireless Plugless Power charger system now for the Chevrolet Volt and Cadillac ELR. May be they are partnering with Tesla on wireless Supercharger technology, which I think would be really great since you could scale up the wireless system to charge things like semi-trailer trucks (BMW already has one that's 100% electric: Here Is BMW's 40-Ton Electric Semi Truck).�
Jan 10, 2016
thegruf Nope - wont happen. Sorry.
The instant that Tesla authorise the car to take control outside private property, Tesla become liable.
Tesla's insurers will be on indefinite extended vacation at that time
Even now with Summon, and perp. park the driver is in control with the key.
You dont seriously think Tesla will pay up when your MS scrapes down the side of the garage or adjacent vehicle do you?�
Jan 10, 2016
mmccord Eh, this isn't as big a deal as everyone makes it out to be. The owner is responsible, and insurance policies need to be slightly rewritten to deal with the situation. Tada.�
Jan 10, 2016
ecarfan Disagree. The advent of autonomous driving, and it's clear advantages, will result in a change in perception of vehicle "safety". Insurers will realize that autonomous cars are safer drivers than humans are. Insurance rates for autonomous cars will eventually be lower than for non-autonomous cars.�
Jan 10, 2016
tanner I know. Everyone always talks about how "risky" autonomous cars are and what they don't realize is that they operate with a success rate of 99.9999%�
Jan 10, 2016
apacheguy Well, first off this is a LONG way off due to legal hurdles primarily. Secondly, it will require much more advanced AP tech than currently available on all Tesla's sold to date. Will also require all new SpC technology that does not require a manual hand connection.�
Jan 10, 2016
woof Unlikely, as the gain from Supercharging is that it's DC and utilizes ganged AC->DC "chargers" in the racks outside of the car, where they can be cooled effectively allow up to 8 to be ganged together to allow high amperage charging.
Today's wireless charging is all high frequency AC coupled wire loops (that's how the power "jumps" the gap, it uses inductive and/or RF coupling) which requires an AC->DC "charger" in the car. The chargers in the Model S are either a single 40A or dual 80A (45A and 75A for Model X), so way lower than the 320A+ Supercharging can provide.�
Jan 10, 2016
McHoffa I read that he did say that the automatic "snake" chargers would start showing up at superchargers in a couple years.�
Jan 10, 2016
dsm363 In 2 Years "Summon" Will Drive Model S WHEREVER YOU ARE!
Are they saying this can be done with current hardware?�
Jan 10, 2016
BertL No. Take a look at the link I provided in post #2.�
Jan 10, 2016
AWDtsla I foresee another horsepower like thread incoming....�
Jan 10, 2016
dsm363 Ah. Thanks
Still, very cool. Gives me the encouragement I need to keep the current car for another few years. Here's to the future fully autonomous P120D!�
Jan 10, 2016
CanadaEV Nice to see your generous spirit in spite of missing out for now. But don't forget... you had the Tesla experience earlier and better than many.�
Jan 10, 2016
eloder No need for Tesla's insurers to stand by--they can just use Google's insurers. They're definitely available and ready to go, because even after over a billion miles not a single one of the Google autonomous-controlled cars has been the cause of an accident.
There's enough statistically-significant driven miles on Google cars to demonstrate that they are indeed much safer than normal cars in not only city driving, but also the extremely simple and non-complex highway driving situation.
The future passed you, and you just haven't even noticed�
Jan 11, 2016
schonelucht Volvo is on record for saying they will take responsibility for accidents with their autonomous driving functionality. Tesla will have to follow suit.�
Jan 11, 2016
brkaus Until insurers realize autonomous ends up being safer, so they have to raise rates to maintain profit growth.
They will probably use the politicians in their pockets to require 100 billion dollars of coverage.�
Jan 11, 2016
WMAC My biggest skepticism comes from the fact that we still have side mirrors and not cameras. If we can't even get legislation to build without mirrors within six years, what makes us so confident we can get autonomy done?�
Jan 11, 2016
pete8314 True, but I think the Google miles driven is nearer 2 million, at least, it was 1.7 million last summer.�
Jan 11, 2016
ecarfan No, not the way I interpret what Tesla posted. I believe the meaning is to say that a few years from now, new Teslas will have the capability for full autonomous driving, with no one in the driver's seat.
The post does not say that the legal and regulatory environment will allow full autonomous driving, only that new Teslas will be have that capability.�
Jan 11, 2016
taurusking What about charging? LA to NY is a long distance. Will car charge itself in supercharger locations?�
Jan 11, 2016
ecarfan Last year Tesla posted a video of a prototype "snake" charging cable that could automatically plug in to a Tesla charge port. Hands free.
Clearly Elon is aware that for a Tesla to autonomously drive long distances it needs to be able to charge itself without human intervention.
There is also the possibility of using inductive charging.
Remembered, we are talking about a few years from now. Not about what the cars and the Supercharger network can do today.�
Jan 11, 2016
mspohr Jalopnik has more information
The car currently has sensors to achieve that cross-country goal,� Musk said. �But you�d need more hardware and software, you�d need more cameras, more radars, redundant electronics, redundant power buses and that sort of thing.�Right now, the driver is Plan B. If something goes wrong with the electronics, it falls to the driver. In the car [driving without a human behind the wheel], it�ll need to fall to another set of sensors in the car.�
On top of that, Musk said Tesla will indeed do a version of the creepy robot snake charger that we saw a prototype of earlier this year. They�ll try to make it less creepy, he added, but it�s also �sort of fascinating in its creepiness.�
Coast To Coast In A Tesla With No Driver Within 24 To 36 Months, Says Elon�
Jan 11, 2016
TexasEV That's the idea.�
Jan 11, 2016
Mark Z If the "summoned" vehicle can avoid hail storms, I would be impressed.
Car dealers in the Midwest would love their cars to avoid hail damage. Can you see a lot full of vehicles departing for a covered parking structure? Now that's progress.�
Jan 11, 2016
Jool I, for one, welcome our autonomous Tesla overlords.
But seriously, I would love to see that much technology in a personal vehicle. What a time to be alive...�
Jan 11, 2016
1208 SUMMON WARS: 2 people with a key/access to the car who are in different locations try to summon it. It heads to one location, the other notices and summons, the car turns back, then the original summoner notices and resummons. The Tesla ends up going back and forth down the same road until it runs out of energy.
On the plus side people can become 1 car families again.�
Jan 11, 2016
halg Can the car charge itself automatically? How does it charge for the long trip from NY to LA?�
Jan 11, 2016
pete8314 You have the makings of a Channel 5 game show right there. Copywrite it, pronto!�
Jan 11, 2016
mspohr That (slightly creepy) flexible charge cable thingy that they demonstrated a few months ago can be set up to charge the car automatically.
It would be good to install these at all superchargers so that if there is a wait, you can just leave your car and it will charge when it's your turn.�
Jan 11, 2016
ecarfan Look up thread just 5 posts before yours and you will find your answer.�
Jan 11, 2016
MikeBur Additional sensor/camera packages may not require mirrors, though the existence of mirrors does not stop the addition of additional sensor/camera packages...�
Jan 11, 2016
Cobbler A good scenario for a new Hollywood buster: a pc nerd manages to hack the Tesla-cloud in 2021 and gets control over the entire Tesla-fleet. Tesla-cars become zombie-EV's, all safety features down and killing everyone on their road, a real Carmageddon�
Jan 11, 2016
Johan In 2 Years "Summon" Will Drive Model S WHEREVER YOU ARE!
2 years = 730 days = 17520 hours.
Some people at Tesla are going to have to put in a lot of work to achieve that goal time wise. I'm talking engineers, programmers and lawyers!
But hey, a win should feel like a win right?
On a related note this kind of statement from Elon makes me cringe a little. But I'm starting to understand his "overpromise - underdeliver [but still be way ahead of everyone else because of the way he doesn't let his vision and imagination get limited by traditional beliefs about what is possible]".�
Jan 11, 2016
Gizmotoy It's surreal to see promises of self-driving cross-country trips when Model S/X lack so many basic features.
The legal implications of a car coming to pick you up from across the country are staggering. There's no way they'll be resolved in 2 years. I'd be surprised if cars were permitted to drive without human occupants across all states in even 10 years. If your Tesla causes an accident on the way to you, who is at fault? Unlike a few other automakers, Tesla has so far disclaimed responsibility. The whole thing is a giant quagmire.
The man knows how to keep Tesla in the news, though.�
Jan 11, 2016
mspohr Are you referring to cup holders?�
Jan 11, 2016
MikeBur No feeding him after midnight... Sorry, always wanted to say that to Gizmo. They'll get it if no one else ;-)
in all seriousness, I am a big believer in BHAGs though as I liken to say too often during a work day: "the impossible we do on a daily basis, though miracles take a while longer.". I didn't realize it, until just trying to find the source of the quote that this is very similar to the US Army "The difficult we do immediately; the impossible takes a little longer.�
I laud the attempt, and just hope that we get a large percentage of the "promised"�
Jan 11, 2016
Discoducky Pretty straightforward scenario for the connected fleet that uses weather data as a part of its decision algorithm. I would expect this behavior for violent weather.�
Jan 11, 2016
jeff_adams Pretty surreal scene that would be.
*Imagine sitting in your car on the way out of town to escape an impending hurricane. In the heavy traffic, you notice swarms of brand new driverless vehicles leaving dealership lots and clogging roadways. Your nightmare of overwhelmed highways and superchargers coming true before your eyes*�
Jan 11, 2016
pete8314 I think the point was, if the legislation is so conservative that it will not allow cameras in place of mirrors, then there's zero change of something like fully autonomous, unescorted driving anytime soon. Another example would be laser headlights, legal in most places, but not the US...�
Jan 11, 2016
WMAC Correct. Look how difficult this little thing has been.�
Jan 11, 2016
Discoducky *Imagine sitting in your car, filled with other survivors, on the way out of town to escape an impending hurricane. Traffic flowing smoothly as it is being controlled by an efficient algorithm making choices to ensure that the most possible routes are chosen and the most people make it to safety. You notice swarms of brand new driverless vehicles leaving dealership lots, full of survivors (cars pick up people when they aren't full) and driving down roadways to safety that are fully charged as they all prepared ahead of time due to their continuous connection to weather data. Your dream of autonomous cars making the world a safer place for all coming true before your eyes*�
Jan 12, 2016
Quietninja22 This is true lol, referring to not dying before 2020�
Jan 12, 2016
vitaliy Wow, I love your optimistic scenario =)�
Jan 12, 2016
ohmman While I have a pretty healthy amount of skepticism about this announcement (at least given the timeframe offered), I will play along. One great use for this? One way road-trips. We all know getting there is half the fun. Being there is the other half, or something like that. Coming home.. not much of the fun. So, yeah, plan a great road trip, enjoy yourself, then fly home and summon your car.�
Jan 12, 2016
vitaliy When that becomes true, another cool idea is a "Go Charge Itself" button =)�
Jan 12, 2016
Rockster Future divorces will include custody battles over the Tesla, with the judge determining the outcome based upon which person the Tesla goes to when both spouses summon the car simultaneously.�
Jan 12, 2016
Skotty That's the most ridiculous thing Elon has ever said.
Here, let me correct -- summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders provided laws allow, map data is complete, you are staying almost exclusively on highways, the snake charger has been rolled out over the entire route, the AP system has been programmed to handle navigating all of the supercharger parking lots and local traffic areas, roads are clearly marked over the entire route, there is no snow or rain obscuring lane markings, and, more generally speaking, the car never once hits a scenario where it would want the driver to take over.
That said, go for it. Just make sure it's a goal and not a promise.�
Jan 12, 2016
Gizmotoy Skip a forward a few hours and all the electric cars fleeing the emergency zone clog the charging infrastructure with huge lines as they need to charge. Some kind of orderly, autonomous evacuation mode would be pretty sweet, though. No chance of seeing that in our lifetimes, I suspect. One manually-driven car would clog the whole thing up and good luck banning manual cars from the road anytime soon.
With my luck the thing would get tripped up by a curb or something a parking lot on the other side of the country and send me a notification to come rescue it. :-/�
Jan 12, 2016
eloder
No, pretty sure that'd be building a rocket that can land itself vertically after delivering payload to orbit, built by a privately-funded startup company within 15 years of its inception.
Oh, right, he already did this significantly harder task.
I don't see why it's ridiculous, Google (a company with a teensy tiny bit of the ultra high resolution mapping that Tesla has) already has a car that is statistically getting into far less accidents than human drivers in city environments, while simultaneously still causing zero accidents themselves. They already have cars without steering wheels and no way for a human to take control other than a brake button.
Look around you, technology is advancing at an incredible pace in regards to software and computing power. I'm wearing a watch that can tell me when my fire alarms need a firmware update. My own job didn't exist at all 15 years ago. I'm driving a car that couldn't exist six years ago. Why is a self-driving car ridiculous when it's been working for over a billion miles on public roads? If not for regulators and costs, you could easily have a self-driving car take you anywhere in the non-mountains California areas with ease right now, today.�
Jan 12, 2016
Skotty Well, this is where I disagree. I honestly believe a truly self driving car is the harder task. I also think existing examples like the Google car are being assumed to be capable of a lot more than they really are at this time. I think people just assume it is easier than it is, because it is one of those things that is seemingly easy for a human (seemingly because it does require maturity, education, and attention), but insanely difficult for a machine. It requires extensive sensory input, a mass of knowledge, intelligent decision making, and perhaps most importantly, the ability to adapt to unknown situations.
Self driving cars may be the first true and necessary use of a true artificial intelligence, assuming we ever create such a thing.�
Jan 12, 2016
WMAC Notice he didn't give an estimate of how long it would take. It could just go really slow in the confusing spots.�
Jan 12, 2016
lovingit I saw a video in which someone uses "summon" to back their MS out of the garage. I thought that was existing hardware. Was it just a demo?�
Jan 12, 2016
meloccom Actually this is not just a cool idea but a feature that will greatly expand the popularity of EV's.
Currently EV's are most suited to people who live in cities but often they will not have off-street or dedicated parking where they can charge.
This will no longer be a problem once your car can autonomously go and charge at the local quick charge station whilst you are asleep removing a major barrier to EV ownership.
Hopefully there won't be any traffic jams at 3AM.:wink:�
Jan 12, 2016
tanner Better yet, just have a wireless charging solution like they do for the leaf. Meet the Plugless Level 2 wireless EV charging station�
Jan 12, 2016
Bangor Bob Apologies, it's winter here, so certain things rise to top of mind...
So when the radar is obstructed with snow, and the camera can't see through the salt on the windshield because the car ran out of washer fluid 100 miles ago, does the car call roadside assistance on it's own, or do I have to fly to wherever it is to take care of that myself? How about tolls?
I think I'd just rather use an autonomous Uber and not have to worry about what was happening to "my" car as it plied the roads without me. I really just want it to drop me off and pick me up at the door at the office, and park somewhere out of the way in between.�
Jan 12, 2016
tanner My guess is it will be A. Limited by weather conditions (a simple autonomous check of weather.com would do the trick) and B. If you override the decision, you're responsible for getting it if something happens.�
Jan 12, 2016
haid Yup. The most realistic use of self-parking/summoning is optimizing utilization of Superchargers. Go to dinner and don't worry about hogging the space for others. Your car will pull up, charge, disconnect and park nearby when done.
I bet we see a first snake Supercharger and demonstration of autonomous charging in 6 months.�
Jan 12, 2016
ecarfan Well, we can agree to disagree. I think starting a rocket company from scratch and in a few years reliably launching satellites into space, then taking cargo to the ISS, and then landing a used first stage right on target after just a few tries is a mind-boggling accomplishment that 15 years ago no one would have thought possible except for Musk (and he figured SpaceX would probably fail).
Creating a highly reliable autonomous car is way easier. Google has done it already. That's just a fact. Tesla will have it in a few years, and probably other car companies will as well.�
Jan 12, 2016
tanner +1
But, SpaceX is a different monster that's fueled by government/nasa contracts, whereas Tesla requires a constant flow of cash from customers. They'll continue to release updates an new iterations of the S/X/eventually model 3 along the way.�
Jan 12, 2016
ohmman 
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Jan 12, 2016
tanner :biggrin:...�
Jan 12, 2016
Noneduck What a great cartoon!�
Jan 13, 2016
scott jones
100% agree. Self driving Google car has been done. It's safer than drivers. And it's MUCH easier than EVERYTHING that goes into blasting off a rocket, having it deliver a payload in space,then having it land EXACTLY how it took off for re-use. Now if the price of Tesla batteries drop in the next incarnate, and the mileage and 60mph times and quarters match what's advertised, that would be swell. Oh yea, and an interior with neatoh lighting and better fit and finish. But I digress... a lot!�
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