Thứ Bảy, 4 tháng 2, 2017

Elon at it again on Twitter part 1

  • Mar 30, 2016
    dieqast
    "Tomorrow is Part 1 of the Model 3 unveil. Part 2, which takes things to another level, will be closer to production."

    "You will see the car very clearly, but some important elements will be added and some will evolve."

    Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
  • Mar 30, 2016
    model3fan
    Part 2 cuv / y unveiling?
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Mod3l 4 me
    Sounds more like they both have to do with the Model3. I think we see the body/interior tomorrow, but things like battery life may evolve as the technology improves. Basically, not even Elon knows all the technology that will be available come production time.

    Just my 2 cents
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Quant
    I'm guessing Part 2 will end up with even better 0-60 times, and of course even more range....potentially taking it closer to 350 miles ? Among other things.....
  • Mar 30, 2016
    plankeye
    They might even mask off things like the nose or tail and reveal those later. Man, he's going to make this really painful.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Steepler2k
    He's said all along that not everything will be revealed tomorrow. Holding things back was always part of the plan.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Model 3
    .... or they are only taking about the base battery, and wait to show us the 300 "real world" miles battery :)
    .... And the AP 2.0 will not been shown until part 2- or 3 along with the ludicrous mode :)
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Johann Koeber
    It will be not only that.

    Driving assistance or even autonomous driving are all evolving quickly in the 21 months before the car will be delivered. Impossible to show now.

    To a lesser degree battery tech will also evolve.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    dieqast
    It sounds like there is some killer feature, like the falcon wing doors on the X, that he's not talking about yet. It could be that there is debate within the company on the inclusion of this feature. I expect a few prototypes based on the the 70D powertrain that should give an impression of the top end performance.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Quant
    I doubt it ! That would be dumb and a reservations suppressor.

    Besides, they rely on free media for marketing, so this element alone, IMO, will mean enough details and full on visuals so that the media can have their fill....and yet allow them to speculate and write more BS about what could be in Unveil # 2.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    DaveGee
    On AI / auto drive .... Just think of how much faster the AI will evolve with oh lets say doubling or dare I say tripling the current car count.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    farzyness
    I think this is going to be similar to the reveal of the Bioweapon Defense mode on the X, and the downplaying of the panoramic windshield that came into focus big time once the car was released.

    I'm going to guess it's along the lines of 100% autonomy everywhere, and also capable of being part of a ride-sharing network. Something along those lines.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    dieqast
    In that case, we might see the improved snake charger tomorrow :)!
  • Mar 30, 2016
    farzyness
    That would be SO cool!
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Kurt Foster
    Part 2 to model 3? Interesting...
  • Mar 30, 2016
    plankeye
    Well, I certainly hope that's the case. I don't really care so much about the "features" as long as the car looks kick-ass. So, if we see the "pretty much final" exterior of the car, I'll be a happy camper!

    The features will only get better, so all of that will just be gravy if the car is awesome looking.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Kurt Foster
    350 is insane, i highly doubt that considering how much the model s costs to upgrade...
  • Mar 30, 2016
    pr0teu5
    I think this is exactly the same as the Model S and Model X unveiling. There was an initial showing where preorders were taken, but the cars changed tremendously and they were shown again right before launch. The seems like exactly the same thing to me.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    RandyS
    If the car was done and design was locked in, they could build them sooner than almost two years. So of course things will be tweaked, added, and changed. No surprises there...
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Xenoilphobe
    A convertible, and SUV and a Wagon....
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Drivin
    "Really hate it when companies bring out an awesome show car and then you can never actually buy it. So lame."

    We will see if the things that evolve are like the model x folding seat evolution or like evolving from 200 mile range to 300.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Tezlah
    Other car manufacturers unveil concept cars that are much more sexy/sleek/tech-filled than then production version of the car.

    Tesla, as we know, has the philosophy that the production version of a car should be more kick-ass than the "prototype". I think this is just Elon's way of communicating this to the non-tesla educated public.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    dieqast
    Brings up an interesting point considering the current range. I think a M3 85D will get around 270 miles EPA, the same as the current MS 90D. But if the 90 kWh battery is replaced for 100 kWh (MS 100D, P100D), the line up is balanced. The highest range and fastest acceleration is for the high end Model S, while the M3 P85D slots nicely in between the (P)100D and the 70D in terms of both 0-60 time as well as range.

    - M3 60: 205 EPA, 0-60 in 5.7
    - M3 60D: 215 EPA, 0-60 in 5.5
    - MS 70: 230 EPA, 0-60 in 5.5
    - MS 70D: 240 EPA, 0-60 in 5.2
    - M3 85D: 270 EPA, 0-60 in 4.5
    - M3 P85D: 250 EPA, 0-60 in 3.7
    - MS 100D: 300 EPA, 0-60 in 4.2
    - MS P100D: 280 EPA, 0-60 in 2.8

    PS: Edited due to mixing up numbers
    PS: Added the non D models
  • Mar 30, 2016
    larmor
    may be the motor changes?
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Incredulocious
    I would expect that they would hold off on talking about anything that would hinder Model S/X sales in the interim because they can only come some 18+ months from now... like better range through higher energy density batteries. I wouldn't be surprised if even that 300+ mile range option that was leaked today isn't supposed to be revealed until closer to production.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    TEG
    Not so sure about that. I think they have a lot of work to do getting the production line built, getting the gigafactory producing cells for the packs, etc. Even if the design was 100% done today (which I am sure it is not) they still have a lot of work in front of them to be ready for production.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    ankitmishra
    They will like the evolution of nose cone, auto doors, panoramic windshield, mono post seats etc which made the car much better than prototype.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    JPUConn
    Maybe "another level" has meaning to it?

    - trim levels such as battery capacity and luxury trims most likely
    - level such as the horizontal bars that represent the Letter E with possibly 3 variants of the vehicle on a single "skateboard" - sedan, coupe/hardtop vert, cuv
    - maybe the same skateboard will also be the basis of the new roadster (or a hardtop convertible as in point above
    - adding a second floor to the gigafactory and thus output would take it literally to increase production capacity beyond previous disclosures.
    - charging rates are also measured in level with level 1, 2, and 3. Maybe a more readily available or faster charging level 3 using onboard supercapacitors to allow for rapid supercharging (gas station like time) to ease concerns of supercharger wait times

    Endless speculation...
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Subrock
    I can't be the only one thinking autonomous driving, but maybe I'm just hearing what I want to hear
  • Mar 30, 2016
    timk225
    2 door Model 3 !
  • Mar 30, 2016
    EMP40
    Since there is so much hullabaloo about the nose; it would be quite funny if they had a disguised big grill, or something ugly, on the front via a picture first; then something closer to real on the car when revealed. I could just hear the gasps now.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    geoffreak
    Ever since Elon said not everything would be revealed at launch, to me that just screams APv2. It's well known that Mobileye will have their EyeQ4 ready late 2017 (sound familiar?). They won't be ready to reveal that at a launch tomorrow because it's too early. There really aren't many other big things that could warrant a second reveal short of the Y (or other potential model 3 versions).

    Obviously all of the exact details won't be available for the launch tomorrow (all battery sizes, prices, exact 0-60 times, etc.), but the the car's design will only change slightly from what they reveal tomorrow to release. This is exactly what happened with the S and X and I would expect no different for the 3.

    We'll be seeing the "alpha" version of the car tomorrow. Just like in software, the difference between alpha and launch is how fleshed out all the details are. The overall styling won't be drastically changed, nor will the size or other key features revealed tomorrow.

    I look forward to seeing what Tesla's vision is for the model 3 tomorrow!
  • Mar 30, 2016
    travwill
    AP2 hardware/software will also for sure be released on an updated S & X before the III. They won't allow the III to have technology that newer high-end S & X models don't have. That would doom their high margin models. So we'll see some of it likely before Model III part 2 ;-)
  • Mar 30, 2016
    TaoJones
    The first year ramp could be 25,000 or 50,000 or more M3. Doesn't matter as long as they provide guidance and meet it.

    Further, there's a factory waiting to be built in China which will double output.

    I am optimistic that a handful of Model 3 will ship in late Q4 2017. I don't know that I would want to own them *grin* but they will ship. And 2018 will be a great year.

    Besides, it'll take that long for the Supercharger Wasteland along I-10 from Tucson to San Antonio to be filled - and the longer they fail to deliver, the fewer SCs it will take. Win win! For the impaired, it will be pretty cool to see improvements not only in range but in charging technology. I don't know about gas station times in the middle of the desert, but any improvements can only help user adoption outside the metropolitan areas, and that's a Good Thing.
  • Mar 30, 2016
    Fanatic1
    How about just 2 falcon wings a la DeLorean?!
  • Mar 30, 2016
    1208
    Its obviously about not revealing the tech yet, it will evolve in time and change and new things added.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    favo
    Clearly, Model 3 will be a flying car.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    cdub
    Full autonomy autopilot.

    Flex Capacitor
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Muaddid
    Full autonomy seems the be the most realistic thing, giving themself a year and a half to achieve that before revealing it...
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Two9A
    Mm, a commenter on Reddit had an interesting theory: "next level" may refer to level-three or level-four autonomy, as defined by the NHTSA. That list describes the S as "level-two" at the present time, since it's highway-capable but not sensible for surface streets as yet; it'd make sense for Autopilot v2, whenever it's released, to be the next step up.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Zaphod
    I agree as well with the others on the next level of autonomous driving.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Kurt Foster
    Very good prediction... this is the best one I have heard so far.
    Thanks for that

    ONLY 12 HOURS LEFT!!!
  • Mar 31, 2016
    p1l0t3
  • Mar 31, 2016
    ggnykk
    From Elon Musk at Twitter:
    Elon Musk [email�protected] 42m42 minutes ago
    Incredibly inspired by the interest in Model 3. You won't be disappointed. Also, small token of appreciation coming for those who lined up.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Brad_NC
    ;););) I wonder if he is referring to the in-store gifts this morning, is if it's something else. I hope it's something else. Like delivery priority ;) or a limited edition with special badges. o_O
  • Mar 31, 2016
    ggnykk
    Maybe a Ludicrous upgrade for free ;-)
  • Mar 31, 2016
    MorrisonHiker
    BOGO coupon!
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Jason S
    lol. Lets extrapolate from the information they have about the people who lined up -- Name, credit card, email address. Now what small token could they all get...
    I think a thank you email, and, at most, a coupon for something like 20-40% discount for stuff from the store like logo shirt or similar.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Blazing Whisper
    I didn't get any gifts this morning at the Toronto (Lawrence) store, did I miss something? I would love to get my hands on some Tesla gear, maybe that's the token of appreciation (or at least a discount).
  • Mar 31, 2016
    mikevbf
    Only the people in line are going to get the next level of autonomous driving built into their car is what I heard ;)
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Beckler
    My guess would be a voucher for a free spacex trip to Mars.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    mikevbf
    Seriously, I think it would cool if it were something like a lottery ticket to a fully loaded Model 3 kind of like a founders edition, but more likely to be something like a tshirt that advertises model 3 are simply says, "I waited in line for a Tesla Model 3."
  • Mar 31, 2016
    rhambus
    I lined up. I was thinking it would be great marketing if they gave everyone who lined up a Tesla t-shirt. Talk about nearly free marketing. I would totally wear that. Kind of like when you get special gear for being a Kickstarter backer of a product.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Dave Garaffa
    Yea I was kinda shocked when I stopped by the local shop yesterday just to 'check the place out' (and buy a hat) and they were all out of Black caps in size LG ... I thought to myself thats odd but had they had everyone 'window shopping' the line today might have gone MUCH longer. As it was it was over 2 hours at my store @ the short hills mall.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    TaoJones
    So what will the freebie be... Hmmmmm.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    ggnykk
    That will cause 1/3 of all American calling in sick at work and line up at Tesla stores! Communities around US will be out of order ;-)
  • Mar 31, 2016
    FirstSea
    Not sure about the other stores, but Elon stopped at Century city (CA) to say hi. That truly was a pleasant surprise.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Model 3
    I notice that you are saying "to" and not "and back" :rolleyes:
  • Mar 31, 2016
    Kurt Foster
    I like the fact that tesla is making an assitance autopiolot, instead of FULLY autonomous like what google is trying to do.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    tmoz
    You mean my free bottle of water wasn't the small token of appreciation?
  • Mar 31, 2016
    apacheguy
    Not sure why this is surprising to anyone. Car won't enter production at all this year. Of course lots of details still need to be worked out. Makes sense.
  • Mar 31, 2016
    apacheguy
    Right. Exactly.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Johan
    Sometimes the real gems are in the replies:

    image.jpeg
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Subhuman
    Don't forget the free cookies!
  • Apr 1, 2016
    ludicrousspeed
    I must say that I'm not a huge fan of his last tweet. There's no reason to equate the reservations to $7.5B (even though it will eventually amount to that) for several reasons, including the fact that they won't receive that revenue for years and people will likely cancel their order.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Johan
    Elon's over optimistic, one might even go as far as saying opportunistic, side showing. He tends to go in to this mode when he's been holding back for a while is finally set free.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    techmaven
    He's exactly right to equate it to $7.5B... they have a lot more knowledge about the expected options mix and therefore ASP's than anyone else. Everyone knows this is future revenue, it is in the context of a product to be delivered in the future. Further, anyone cancelling is likely to be easily replaced so this is still a good marker.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    diamond.g
    If his ASP estimate is true that bodes well for prices on options. No?
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Az_Rael
    This conversation is missing the actual tweet:
    image.jpeg
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Tezlah
    That's what I was thinking too.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    hockeythug
    I assume AWD and convenience auto pilot. Maybe a 0-60 bump as well.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    vjason
    He can easily guess revenue for year 1; as I said yesterday year 1 production will likely be sold out between now and the release date (if not much sooner).

    If no one cancels, what was sold before the full reveal was ~3 months of production alone, just for the model 3. And that assumes they can build 500K a year as he said (not doubting, just putting forward that disclaimer).

    My bigger question is will they ever starting putting cars on the lot, or are there enough customers out there who are willing to settle for a car that will take a short while to be built? I'm fine with custom orders and waiting (first new car I ever bought had to be custom ordered to get the engine+tranny combo I wanted), but for many a car is an impulse buy off the lot. This is all a very long term concern through, as the 3's will sell just fine as 100% custom orders until probably 2019 at the earliest. Tesla doesn't really have to worry about buying habits so long as they can sell 6 digits worth of pre-orders.


  • Apr 1, 2016
    TslaIsFuture
    Elon just tweeted....almost ~200k reservations.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Az_Rael
    image.jpeg

    Wowzers. Glad I'm not counting on the tax credit. This is gonna be a wild ride.
  • Apr 1, 2016
    RubberToe
    A brand spanking new Tesla car manufacturing plant in China would go a long way toward decreasing the Model 3 wait times for all involved. Might as well break ground on Gigafactory 2 while they are at it. Just sayin ;).

    RT
  • Apr 1, 2016
    RubberToe
    BMW, Mercedes, VW and Audi are going to have to go on a massive hiring spree in order to fill all the Human Resources positions they will need to allow them to process, in a timely manner, the thousands of layoff notices they will be sending out to their workers...

    RT
  • Apr 1, 2016
    RubberToe
    [?IMG]

    Think, Elon, Think !
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Shaggy
    I hope this doesn't screw up My Feb 2018 Model S order...
  • Apr 1, 2016
    Subhuman
    Tesla should post the reservation counter that they had at the reveal event at the top of the website.
  • Apr 2, 2016
    tmoz
    What!? You got cookies?
  • Apr 2, 2016
    diamond.g
    And sparkling water :p
  • Apr 2, 2016
    Subhuman
    Yep, I thought the sparkling water was pretty classy. Cookies were damn good too!
  • Apr 2, 2016
    BBryson
    The Orlando Service Center had cookies, bottled water and fresh made smoothies!
  • Apr 2, 2016
    S3XY
    We did too at the Cleveland store. And they were the awesome soft cookies no less! They also gave us coffee while waiting in line outside. I also have to mention how pleasant and helpful all of the staff was there.
  • Apr 2, 2016
    AudubonB
    The folks at Scottsdale got to hear Audie cracking jokes.
  • Apr 2, 2016
    cdub
    And coffee!
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