1/1/2015
guest Does using AP increase safety? We can infer Elon thinks it does, given his comparison of the death rates on roads against Tesla�s one fatality. But I�m still raising this question because I think 1) it�s important and 2) it�s not so simple. Unfortunately it�s also likely to be contentious.
I�m not asking �Is using AP safe?� because that clearly depends. It depends on the circumstances of its use. Obviously, turning on AP at random during a drive and letting it run without further intervention will probably result in a crash. None of us would do this, but the point is that the safety of AP is a function of the combination of the driver and AP itself, since 1) AP is only designed to be turned on in certain settings (for example, divided highways) and 2) it sometimes needs driver intervention even in those settings. In particular, the driver must be ready and able to take control immediately, and most of us have plenty of personal experiences where such quick intervention was necessary for one reason or other.
So the safety of AP depends on the conscientiousness, attentiveness and skill of the particular driver using it, which is why �Is using AP safe?� isn�t meaningful. What is meaningful is a comparison of that driver�s projected accident rate using AP, given the choices they make when using it, and their projected accident rate just driving the same routes by themselves. Or in terms of statistics, the meaningful comparison is between the accident or death rate of a population of drivers using AP, and a population of equally conscientious, attentive and skilled drivers who are driving Teslas without using AP over the same routes where the others use AP. This comparison would show whether using AP increases safety.
The problem is that this is nothing like Elon�s comparison. First, AP is �intended for use only on highways and limited-access roads� (according to the manual) and I assume our AP use is at least skewed in that direction. I�m having trouble finding statistics on fatalities per vehicle mile on interstates, but I assume divided highways are significantly safer (which makes the comparison for AP tougher) than all roads in the aggregate. Second, Teslas are intrinsically safer than the average car, so there would be fewer deaths in the comparison group of non-AP cars if they were all Teslas. Also, overall fatality per vehicle mile statistics include motorcycles, which are less safe. Third, I expect the average Tesla driver is a safer than average driver, even when when they drive ICE cars, simply because their being able to afford a Tesla means they are probably older. The result is that the figure for fatalities per vehicle mile that Elon should compare to is significantly lower than the nationwide average number. Of course Tesla�s one fatality isn�t statistically meaningful anyway, but Elon�s comparison is not a good argument that using AP increases safety.
But what about other arguments in favor of AP being safer? One could argue that if AP is used exactly as instructed in the manual, then it is extremely safe: safer than driving. But that�s because the driver would always cover for AP�s mistakes: the manual requires that we must �always be prepared to take immediate action.� The difficulty is that I suspect that about the only human capable of always being prepared to take immediate action � who takes no extra time to refocus their full attention � is Sully Sullenberger. So the relevant comparison against AP is Mr. Sullenberger driving an intrinsically safe Tesla down a limited-access highway, which is about as safe as safe can be. I don�t see how AP being used exactly as instructed can be safer than that.
But then there are the rest of us fallible mortals who are trying to do what the manual wants within the psychological limits of attention and skill. So for us fallible drivers, which alternative is riskier: 1) correcting the wheel in an instant when we are completely surprised by AP balking at a tight curve, an asphalt patch covering lane lines, a reflection driving toward the afternoon sun, or the crest of a hill; or 2) driving ourselves through a tight curve, over an asphalt patch, into the afternoon sun, or over the crest of a hill? I think there is no question that (1) is much less safe than (2). In other words, AP reduces safety in these cases, it doesn�t increase it.
But these cases need to be balanced against the cases where AP would be safer, which is where the driver is sleepy, or loses attention because of a monotonous road, or because of a long stretch of stop and go traffic. Which way does the overall balance go? Is the safety increase in these situations enough to boost overall safety beyond that of driving one's self? I don�t know, but I doubt it. I definitely think that driving the car one�s self is currently (under 7.1) slightly safer as long as these conditions don�t apply.
All of this is not meant as a criticism of Tesla. They are trying doing great things in automated driving, and I believe they will eventually succeed. So I guess my conclusions are:
1) Except for sleepiness, monotony and stop-and-go, supposed safety is not the reason to use AP. Convenience is generally what would justify its use.
2) The safety focus for using radar in 8.0 is a good thing, because that will shift the balance to some degree. It needs to be shifted because AP is not now intrinsically safer than driving.
3) I hate to say it, but enhanced nags to force us to hold the wheel are probably a good thing. The argument against nags would be stronger if AP was as intrinsically safe as Elon says, but it isn�t.
I�m looking forward to 8.0.
What do you think?�
1/1/2015
guest AP drives better than 75 percent of the drivers around me in the Philadelphia, DC metro, and Hampton Roads region. Fact is that it is too easy to get a license to drive in the US but everyone thinks they are the best. In addition, I should like to note that the behavior of people on their cell phones matches that of drunk drivers. Over 30,000 people a year are killed on the roads every year (10 times the number killed in 9-11). It's not speed that kills; it's bad drivers with no skill. You can get a license in the US without ever touching a skidpad (majority reading this comment probably never heard of the term "skidpad"). That's insane. In the DC metro area, you don't even have to prove you know how to parallel park. I discovered that after moving back from Germany and had to retake my exam. The entire controversy over AP is just bash@# crazy considering the bigger picture on driver safety. AP, prior to v8.0, is absolutely an improvement in safety for all. #justmytwocents�
1/1/2015
guest It's a fair point that an idiot texting while eating a filet-o-fish may be better off using AP. I should have included that in the list of conditions where AP is the safer choice.�
1/1/2015
guest It's all good. Pardon my old man rant.
�
1/1/2015
guest In terms of safety, I think you are understating the significance of "sleepiness, monotony, stop-and-go" effects. Humans are terrible at paying attention to what's in front of them. Every day on my drive to work in the Bay Area I see one or two rear-ending accidents, and I've already gotten one of my cars totaled by a driver that's simply not paying attention. Sensors always pay attention, and deficiencies in sensors can be addressed and rolled out to the whole fleet. There is no "be better at paying attention and ignoring family member texting you about a health problem" OTA for humans. Well if there is, I haven't gotten one yet.
But in general, what Elon was saying was two-fold. One, Autopilot/TACC virtually eliminates rear-ending accidents to truly exceptional events (such as T-boning an unrecognized car or a lane-offset approach to an oddly shaped vehicle that's not visually recognized by the camera as being a car).
Secondly, in non-AP mode, the car's collision mitigation systems err on the side of trusting the driver. As a result, it delays warnings and emergency braking action until the very last second when it's absolutely sure that the driver isn't going to react in time. It does this because humans tend to find false emergency braking / collision alarms to be extremely annoying and after a few false alerts will probably just ignore the system. In AP mode, the car is in full control and knows what it's trying to do. So if it sees an obstacle, it can initiate action (whether that's light or heavy braking or steering in 8.0) much earlier and more gradually. In this sense, it's "safer" in that it can gradually execute avoidance maneuvers well in advance, rather than being in a penalty box and only being allowed to take last-minute emergency-input maneuvers. It's also worth mentioning, even in AP mode with a distracted driver, sudden changes to input by the AP tend to grab our attention. If the car changes from maintaining speed to slowing down, even if we were distracted at the moment, it's probably enough to immediately cause us to glance at the road, and take action to override the AP or agree with the AP and slam on the brakes. In that regard, AP's inputs do buy an additional safety margin vs just the driver.
(Oddly enough, you can see a lot of folks who are not happy about the second behavior. v7.1 already has a lot of circumstances where it will suddenly start applying max regen braking to slow down for something it thinks is an obstacle, which either shows up as a "ghost car" on the display or as an exaggerated diagram of the car next to you leaving its lane and cutting into yours. We really don't have much of a tolerance for false braking events even when they frankly have little to no safety implications in terms of "causing" a chain reaction rear-ending by slowing down 20mph with 50kW of regen braking�.)�
1/1/2015
guest I agree that 8.0's reducing rear-ending in monotonous stop-and-go is a big deal: maybe bigger than I give it credit for. Personally, I'm not sure I trust 7.1 enough to hand over driving to AP in a stop-and-go situation. You mention a couple possible fail situations in parentheses above, another may be where the car being tracked ahead moves to another lane exposing a stopped car in front of it. It's great that 8.0 is bringing more radar data to the task where it should handle this case.
EDIT: to some degree the Forward Collision Warning helps prevent rear-ending without engaging AP. I triggered it once when I was glancing at the big screen map on a busy street while car's in front hit the brakes. The alarm sounded and I braked well short of the car ahead. Without it it would have been close.
I think this discussion is good because it is highlighting situations where AP does enhance safety.�
1/1/2015
guest I actually use the current AP in stop and go traffic all the time thanks to living in silicon valley. I think the limitations are actually much overstated. I came from a 2014 Audi A6 which literally refused to acknowledge stopped cars exist 100% of the time, and won't recognize a car half-in your lane 100% of the time. That was borderline frightening to use in stop and go traffic�
I've found that the Tesla system in the current form actually handles most of these situations you mentioned (including cut-out, cut-in, and encountering stopped ordinary cars), more often than not. There's only been one or two occasions where it's been too close for comfort and I intervened before finding out whether or not the car will handle it. As an aside, my rant here is, when in doubt take over control � other drivers on the road are NOT your AP science experiment volunteers!
8.0 should make these situations even better. But the key is paying attention. It's really easy to detect when AP is not acting as it should as long as your face isn't buried in your smartphone
(Once I was in the same car as a friend with a similar Audi. We were in stop and go traffic, and the car in front pulled out and revealed a stopped VW Jetta. The Audi immediately started accelerating heavily and he slammed on his brakes, and was like "WTF THE CAR JUST TRIED TO CRASH ITSELF". I asked "did you read the manual?"�.. "why would I do that?")�
1/1/2015
guest I'm happy to say you are much more an expert than I because I retired to a farm in the county seven years ago and have since then driven in stop-and-go commuting traffic exactly once -- which was solely for the purpose of testing AP.
It worked.
Nevertheless I appreciate the importance of avoiding rear-end collisions. Back when I was working in Boston about a decade ago I was rear-ended by some clown in stop-and-go traffic. His car was wrecked, mine was dented. Audis are also good cars.
�
1/1/2015
guest Very well written and thoughtful thread. Nice job @sillydriver !�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks!�
1/1/2015
guest The problem with a question like this is what we choose to compare it against.
In the media it's constantly compared against an unimpaired driver which is a bit silly because where are the unimpaired drivers? In the Seattle area people are either drunk, high, or using their phones. In some cases it's probably all three.
I see AP as desperate move, but necessary move to save us from ourselves.
Even if it's less safe in the short term the long term dividends will pay off big time.
There are four primary negative elements of the current version of AP that hampers it's safety. I'm only referring to the full AP, and not just TACC.
1.) Abuse in that drivers ignore how you're supposed to use AP. It works deceptively well for what little sensor technology is actually there. This deception leads some experienced drivers into assuming they know it's limitations/etc, but then they don't account for some once in a blue moon event. Something like trust lust, or a stalled car that suddenly appears in front of them.
2.) Using AP causes a lose of situational awareness. There is just something that happens when I allow the car to steer itself. I try to fight against that by at least having one hand/finger on the wheel for feedback. But, I still find my situational awareness to be lacking compared to what it is when I'm engage. This is precisely why lots of people feel relaxed and energized after a road trip with AP. They do because all that energy that went into situational awareness wasn't used. So of course you're going to feel relaxed.
3.) Control hand off - In the current AP there have been drivers assuming that AP was still active, but it's wasn't. That they disabled it or overrode it without realizing it. This is why the logs are so important when assessing why an incident happened.
4.) AP allows a person to drive considerably more miles without the same level of exhaustion, and this leads people to drive way more miles than they would otherwise. The chance of an accident goes up as you're on the road more. It prevents people from taking safer options like getting on a plane. I drive WAY MORE now days now that I have a Tesla than I ever did before, and AP played a significant role in that.
There are some benefits that enhance the safety.
1.) Diminished road rage - AP turns you into a softy. Someone is riding their brakes? Oh, well. Or if people are constantly speeding up and slowing down? So what?
2.) Less speeding - Just set the speed and forget about it. No looking down at the speedometer wondering why you're doing 100mph.
3.) A co-pilot for distracted moments - We all have distracted moments and you're lying if you say you're never distracted. Sometimes it's a text in a bad moment. Or sometimes it's some beautiful scenery. Or maybe it's a spider that's crawling on you.
4.) Ceasing lane drifters. Even people who are paying attention sometimes just drift.�
1/1/2015
guest When you use it, you begin to trust it. You learn what it can do well, and what it has trouble with. You understand it. Most people have a hard time just trusting something they don't know about. "I'm a doctor. Trust me." Maybe not, right?
AP in stop and go traffic is fantastic. Far, far better than the average human. You ought to try it and see.�
1/1/2015
guest TACC/AP works pretty much optimally in stop and go. It's absolutely the place I use it most often. It's absolutely worth the price in that alone.
I feel as if AP drops off a bit when going above 75mph or so.�
1/1/2015
guest That's the crux of the problem. To assess real safety, you can't just look at the system alone without taking into account the driver and his/her interface with the system even if the driver is using it not as intended.
With AP, I guarantee that most of us probably are distracted a hell of a lot more than without AP because it works so well.
Those second-long glances at your smartphone that used to be 1 second at a time in your old ICE now slowly creep up to 5 seconds and 10 seconds with AP engaged. You fumble with Slacker 30 seconds at a time trying to find new podcasts. Pretty soon, you'll have gotten to where you were going and realized you were "heads down" maybe 75% of the time only glancing up when you felt a slight deceleration, unexpected drift or a nag from the computer telling you to place your hands on the wheel.
Now is that safer than the same driver having to manually drive while trying to text a few messages here and there? Maybe...maybe not. Who knows.�
1/1/2015
guest I would certainly agree that Tesla's "statistical" arguments about AP safety are deeply flawed. They have the data to present
the convincing argument: what are the comparative accident rates for Tesla drivers, on AP-approved roads, with and w/o AP?
I'm not holding my breath waiting for them to share this data.
As for the likely reality, I think if you look at the circumstances under which at least certain classes of accidents occur you'll see
a significant correlation with the tired/bored/stressed factor, so preferentially benefiting those drivers is likely to result in a
disproportionate safety improvement.
This is a really complicated, multi-dimensional issue. "Safer"/"less safe" are probably simplistic characterizations.�
1/1/2015
guest I tend to be somewhat data-driven, but unfortunately we have limited data so far due to the relatively low number of miles driven on AP.
What we do know is that in the first 200,000,000 miles on AP, there have been 1 or at most 2 fatalities using AP (depending on the outcome of the investigation in China).
More significantly, from the information available, a reasonable conclusion is that there has not been a single person killed using pre-8.0 versions of Autopilot when used as instructed in 200,000,000 miles. This is a truly remarkable achievement for AP's first year "in the wild."
With v 8.0 Autopilot, which includes additional features to help ensure it is used as intended, Elon has predicted that within about a year AP will triple the safety of driving compared to vehicles without Autopilot. I look forward to seeing the data to verify this, but based on the first year of experience with AP this seems like a reasonable guess.
Edit: Just saw the posts above -- I wouldn't be surprised to see data on v 8.0 w/n the next year or so to back up Elon's safety predictions.�
1/1/2015
guest Perhaps, but the need to charge guarantees they take breaks and don't do the 12 hour marathon driving that some ICE drivers do.�
1/1/2015
guest It is only remarkable if we know with equal or greater certainty that 200M miles of equivalent non-AP driving would have had a higher
death rate. Does anyone have data to that effect?�
1/1/2015
guest Speak for yourself.
I am LESS distraced with AP than without, I can now focus my FULL attention on what's happening around me, and be in a much better position to make the necessary changes.
Those "1 second at a time" glances at a smartphone? They are ZERO second glances. My phone stays in my pocket, not only would it be illegal for me to pull it out, it's also just plain stupid.
AP is a driver assistance function, it is clearly communicated as such, and if used appropriately adds a LOT of safety.
If however you're unsafe driving while using AP, you would be even MORE unsafe driving without it.
Unfortunately, Tesla seems determined to reduce the safety of the system by introducing nags that force people to spend more time looking at the instrument cluster and less time looking at the road. They also already introduced limits to the speed it will operate at which can cause the car to unexpectedly slow large amounts in the middle of a freeway, and they've introduced nags at meaningless times which condition drivers to ignore the nags. All of this makes the system drastically less safe than it was when originally introduced. Very soon it will likely be both easier and safer to just drive manually.�
1/1/2015
guest It didn't really change my behavior all that much.
With an ICE I did a marathon drive to SF that took me around 11 hours (I was speeding a bit), and did a marathon trip back.
With my Tesla I did a leisurely trip to a bit south of Santa Cruz, and then did a marathon drive back. On the drive back when it started to get late I tried to nap for the hour my car was supercharging.
I don't think it made me any more rested or if there was really any difference. In either case it was probably stupid.
There are also a number of accidents where Tesla drivers have fallen asleep. Maybe its the combination of smoothness plus quietness. Or maybe they're just old.�
1/1/2015
guest At least in the Tesla if they fall asleep they have a chance. I've responded to the aftermath of people who have fallen asleep behind the wheel of other vehicles. It's not pretty.�
1/1/2015
guest The publicly available data suggest that not a single person has been killed with AP when is used as instructed. I find that a truly remarkable statistic.
It will be interesting to see the data in six months or a year with the improvements in the v8.0 system. If Elon's predictions are correct, the data should show a significant decrease in serious injuries and fatalities (i.e., 2X-3X) when driving with Autopilot compared to vehicles with no Autopilot.
I think it is important to put the incredibly fast developing advances in AP in context. Let's assume for the sake of argument that at this moment AP is only "just as safe," not safer, than a driver without AP. Can there be any doubt that with machine and fleet learning that on average driving with AP will soon be much safer than driving without it?
Autopilot is not just a major advance in automotive safety, but a major advance in public health. The leading cause of death for people aged 1-44 is "unintentional injury," primarily motor vehicle accidents. http://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_age_group_2014_1050w760h.gif
I expect that within a few short years Autopilot (and comparable technologies, if adopted by other automakers), will save an incredible number of lives.�
1/1/2015
guest If I told you that not a single person has been killed without AP under equivalent circumstances, would you find that equally remarkable?
I don't know that's true, but neither do I know it is not.�
1/1/2015
guest This is part of human nature. The popular example is when a bicyclist isn't wearing a helmet the drivers on the road give them more room than they would if the bicyclist was wearing their helmet. It kinda defeats the purpose of wearing the helmet in a way.
So of course people who text will likely text more with AP than without. Someone like me who absolutely hates people who text and drive would never do so without AP, but on occasion if something pressing is going on I might with AP in specific road situations. My safety margin is pretty high, and still remains high with AP. But, I probably don't gain anything with AP. I think it's pretty much a wash not counting for the safety elements of AP.
With AP I think we have to be realistic when it comes to human nature. That sometimes when trying to make something safe they end up ruining the safety margin we gave them.�
1/1/2015
guest Pardon me while I jump on my hobby horse here...
This may not apply to the typical Tesla driver today, given that they are in general older and (maybe?) wiser than a lot of the young
people involved in many fatal accidents, but if Tesla wanted to do one thing to reduce driving fatalities it would be to disallow driving
over, say, 20mph when either front passenger is not wearing a seat belt. Nannyism? You betcha. Save countless lives? That, too.
[dismount hobby horse]�
1/1/2015
guest But, does that really mean anything?
It definitely has truck lust and even if you're paying attention I could see it causing an accident due to over-correction. If they don't eliminate this behavior it certainly stands a fair chance someone will die as a result.
It also has other behaviors like suddenly slowing down that could cause an accident.
There have been at least a few accidents where there was a control hand off issue. You can say they weren't using it correctly, but is that their fault or a UI/IX issue?
I think what we're seeing is mixed results, but we're learning a lot.�
1/1/2015
guest What???�
1/1/2015
guest Much to my dismay it turned off AP when I unbuckled my seatbelt when I tried taking off my coat.
The number one purpose of AP for me was to hold the wheel for me on occasion, and it wouldn't even do that.�
1/1/2015
guest Strange but True: Helmets Attract Cars to Cyclists�
1/1/2015
guest So the argument then is that we should ban helmets, seatbelts, and all other safety features to make us more safe?
Wow... no wonder we can't have nice things... As I've said before, if this ridiculous society existed in the past, the wheel never would have been invented.�
1/1/2015
guest Let me respond this way. I don't understand the animosity that is expressed by many people to what is obviously technology that will save tens of thousands of lives of people in the prime of life and could lead to automobiles no longer being the leading cause of death among kids, teenagers and their parents.
To my knowledge, this technology is too young to have statistically significant data available to prove that lives have already been saved. But having said that I think that the first year of AP in the wild has been an extraordinary success, and will within the next twelve months will result in a dramatic and statistically provable increase in driving safety.�
1/1/2015
guest There is no argument we should ban any of it.
All that's being said is to account for it.
I still wear my helmet when I bike, and I do NOT want to replace my airbag with a dagger even if some studies have shown that driving would be really safe if we all did that.�
1/1/2015
guest That may be true, but the original question was "Do Tesla's claims about AP safety hold water?". There's no animosity toward the
technology (at least, not on my part), but I'm not a fan of unsubstantiated and quite possibly misleading claims. Especially when
there's no real need for them.�
1/1/2015
guest Let me put it this way. In the very first year this technology is in widespread use, and even viewed in a pessimistic light, driving with AP is at least as safe as driving without AP.
Given how fast the technology is improving, is there any doubt whatsoever that by the end of year 2 driving with AP will be safer than driving without?
I say not a chance.�
1/1/2015
guest The thread title is directed to the technology (at least the way I read it):
"Does using AP increase safety."
I think the answer is an unequivocal "yes." And I predict a year from now it will be silly to even ask the question.�
1/1/2015
guest The enhancements that are being made with V8.0/V8.1 improve passive driving as much as it improves AP.
So I don't think AP driving will be safer than non-AP driving on an identical car.
It's going to be hard for a robot to compete with a human+robot combination. The human can better account for the actions of other humans. The robot is better at paying attention.�
1/1/2015
guest On the freeway AP is limited to 90mph (at least in the US) regardless of posted speed limits. If you try accelerating past this while AP is engaged, you get huge warning tones and AP cuts off entirely. Also with the latest firmware (2.32.23) there's no nag at specified times. I drove today and spent a stretch of 15 minutes hands off time before I got a warning.
When I use AP (on average 90miles/day), I spend a lot of time looking at other drivers around me observing what they are doing and how they behave. I would say in the few seconds that I spend observing any neighboring driver, roughly 5-10% of them are periodically glancing down in their laps presumably interacting with smart phones. If you give them AP capability, the system will almost certainly give them the false sense of security to be even more distracted even while stressing that it's a driver assistance feature, in beta, etc. That's a lot of people that bad things can happen to.
You can't design systems for the ideal perfect driver - they have to be designed to the way most people will interact with it.�
1/1/2015
guest That's based on the class of road. You get different timed nags for different classes of road currently. On 8.0 you will get a nag every 1 minute at freeway speeds.
Based on what you say, that 5-10% of people are extremely unsafe now, and would likely be much safer if autopilot was there to cover for their inattentiveness. Of course they'd be even safer if they put down the phone.
I see that not as a weakness in AP, but an opportunity for AP to save lives.
Which is it, "5-10%" or "most"? I'd argue that you can't put 90-95% of people's lives at risk just to protect the 5-10% of people who are being stupid.�
1/1/2015
guest I think the final point you make is the key one IMO and I agree with you.
Whether you consider that technology "Autopilot" or enhanced AEB is just semantics as far as I'm concerned.�
1/1/2015
guest That's a faulty way to look at the data. It needs to be looked at under all circumstances in which AP was used because that's the way it WILL be used in reality.
As an extreme example, I could design a car with the brake and gas pedals reversed. Anytime someone got into an accident by hitting the wrong pedal, I could blame the driver for not using the vehicle as instructed and chalk it up to driver error. We know that's not the whole story though.
I love my AP and would be really upset if it were diminished but any discussions on the safety of AP needs to consider the Autopilot + human interface/behavior as a whole and not just look at the computer system.�
1/1/2015
guest Ever since the wheel was invented we've been less safe.
Let's ignore all the other benefits and ban the wheel!�
1/1/2015
guest Ha, it's the point I deleted since I didn't think it was really relevant.
What I was trying to get at is I see AEB/AP as being two distinct things. In my entire discussion on this thread about it I've considered them separate. AEB isn't what makes a Tesla different; AP is what makes a Tesla different.
AEB systems are being improved across the board on lots of cars from lots of different manufactures. The NHTSA is spearheading this at least in the US, and we'll soon start to see the tremendous difference it makes. It won't matter if it's a Subaru or a Tesla.
AP is a driving aid that will slowly morph into self-driving over various software and hardware upgrades. The usage of AP without accounting for AEB can enhance and diminish the safety of driving.
In this thread I listed the good and the bad of AP because the thread title said "Using AP". It didn't say AEB or any other always on collision mitigation/avoidance system.
Tesla themselves seem to be gathering lane steering data from people with AP engaged and without AP engaged. Where they're using this data to suggest the AP driving is better because it's more centered. The problem I have with that is I usually have a reason why I'm not centered, and it's not because I'm a bad driver.�
1/1/2015
guest Hota,
I agree with your main point (highlighted above). What I am trying to say is
After Year 1, and with lots of experience and lots of data, Tesla is about to introduce a major upgrade. I am excited to see how it performs. There is every reason to expect that Elon's prediction that it will be 2-3X safer than driving without AP will turn out to be correct.
- Year 1 of AP is done; and a new, improved version of AP is coming out
- Year 1 IMO was a huge success in terms of safety because
- The system was introduced into a complex environment and was generally safe
- The limited data available suggests that drivers using AP are at least as safe as drivers not using the system.
- There is no evidence of a single fatality caused by the use of the system as instructed
�
1/1/2015
guest OK, this is getting a bit esoteric for me. I personally don't think it matters what is considered AEB and what is considered AP. I do think it is fair to consider what Tesla is contributing to safety/accident avoidance that the rest of the industry is not (in addition to convenience of using AP).
Elon says that he thinks that the new AP v.8.0 software will reduce accidents by 50% and improve safety by 2X-3X compared to vehicles that don't have it. Will be interesting to come back in 12-18 months and see what the data say about that. I expect the data will back up the predictions.�
1/1/2015
guest There really have been huge strides in active safety within the automotive industry.
Even a lowly Subaru has an AEB system that can stop fully when the speed differential is less than 31mph. It has a stereo camera versus the single camera of the Tesla. There have been massive gains in safety throughout the industry due to the use of AEB systems.
AP exposed a massive limitation of the current AEB system in that it can't detect a stopped object all the time. It was exposed not because drivers were running into things on their own with AP not enabled. No one really paid much attention when that happen. It was exposed because AP was running into things while the driver wasn't paying attention, or simply watched in awe as their Tesla crashed into a stalled car.
Don't get me wrong because I do like what Tesla is doing. I think what they're doing is pretty unprecedented, and it's extremely exciting. They're able to improve the AEB through a software upgrade without having to upgrade the HW (like adding the tricameras).
I just don't like the statistical comparison that Elon Musk makes, and don't think to see an AP equipped system being 2X-3X better than a really good Volvo or MB.
As to thread I thought it was about using AP versus not using AP. As in are we safer to use AP? or are we more safe to leave it off where we instead use TACC only or don't use anything?�
1/1/2015
guest Tesla AP logs 1.5 million miles a day. So it's likely there will be three or more accidents a year. It's inevitable. People who pay attention to the road will be safer with AP, and people who don't pay attention won't.�
1/1/2015
guest Even people who don't pay attention will be safer. Safer than they were when not paying attention without AP. They'd be even safer if they did pay attention, but they still benefit from the added safety of AP�
1/1/2015
guest Only if people's behavior stays the same. With AP, some drivers will pay even less attention to the road. Some may text longer, and some may drink and drive more. Many accidents are caused by those corner cases. So net gain in fatality may be less than we thought.�
1/1/2015
guest But as long as it's a net gain, it's a win.�
1/1/2015
guest I think the biggest win of AP is to make driving much less stressful.�
1/1/2015
guest To really have a net gain we have to improve ALL cars on the road in addition to the roads themselves.
Only a few of the fatality Tesla accidents could have been mitigated with the latest AP/AEB upgrade. it's a significant number, and a huge improvement. But, I think we'll start to see diminishing returns unless we improve ALL cars.
The saddest accident (at least in how I felt) was when an impaired driver hit a Tesla and the kid in the backseat of the Tesla died.�
1/1/2015
guest I love Autopilot.
But since this is about data, this "AP logs 1.5 million miles" claim seems off to me. Tesla is selling about 14K cars per quarter. AP hit in the last quarter of 2014, so that's generously 14K x 8 quarters of AP equipped cars = 110K AP capable cars. Not all of them have AP on, so just guessing generously, say we have 100K AP cars out there. That would mean every AP capable car is averaging 15 miles per day ON AP ? That's a lot.
And, those calculations were pretty conservative above... TSLA has not been selling 14K cars per quarter since 2014, right?�
1/1/2015
guest
FWIW, looking at what was written overnight I thought these points were very additive to my original post.�
1/1/2015
guest Nice post.
I agree that the relevant test is how Tesla's with AP performs relative to other vehicles.
In the recent press call regarding AP v. 8.0, Elon predicted that with the improvements in the new software, Model S and X would be twice as safe as other vehicles, and with fleet learning could soon be three times as safe. Elon Musk sees 3x potential increase in safety with Tesla�s new Autopilot update
So while it is interesting and important to understand how well Autopilot performed in its first year, that is just a beginning. By design, the system (and Tesla) are learning very quickly, and Tesla is about to implement major improvements in a system that based on the limited data available so far already is just as safe if not safer than driving other manufacturers' vehicles that don't have AP.
And if AP 8.0 performs as predicted and doubles safety immediately and triples it in the near future compared to other vehicles, that will be an extraordinary and even historic improvement in vehicle safety.�
1/1/2015
guest The proper comparison should really be: is driving really distracted using AP safer than driving moderately distracted in a non-AP vehicle.
I argue that for the majority of drivers - especially as the model 3 is rolled out - AP will lead to extreme distraction so we have to take that into account.
This is why Tesla is working so hard to make sure AP minimizes additional distractions.�
1/1/2015
guest So a theme here is that the situations for using AP that increase safety most compared with not using it include texting, eating, dealing with screaming kids, playing with the car's byzantine audio controls, and other distractions or stupid behavior.
I think this conclusion is correct, but I hope I am not alone in finding it amusingly ironic ...
The situations where AP increases safety the most are generally those where the driver is violating the manual's instructions for AP's use by not being "prepared to take immediate action."
Unfortunately, this means the manual cannot suggest that these are the situations where AP has the greatest benefit to safety, since it would be contradicting itself!
Of course people are generally smart enough to figure out by themselves that these are good times to use AP.
But then if they use AP when dealing with distractions -- just as they should -- but they drive over the crest of a hill and the thing swerves and puts them in the bushes, they better not post the incident on TMC because we will all (correctly) criticize them for not being prepared to take over.
Very ironic.�
1/1/2015
guest It is probably the case that most long distance travel done in AP-capable cars is done with AP enabled, so that will skew things. Enough
to "fix" the numbers? Hard to say for sure.�
1/1/2015
guest One undeniable fact is that AP reaction time is low and consistent.
6 milliseconds I believe I've read. Human drivers use more than 200 and often 1000 ms to react.�
1/1/2015
guest This is a great thread, lots of well-reasoned arguments that have so far remained civil.
Disclosure: I do not have a Tesla, nor have I ever driven in any car that has any autonomous functions, be they AEB or higher.
We have 5 types of drivers:
a) Attentive Human - Driver breaking no laws with good reaction time
b) Inattentive Human - Driver eating/checking texts/talking on phone/screaming at kids in the back
c) Machine (AP v7 or 8) - Human driver gets in the back seat and watches as the car goes down the highway
d) Attentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8) - Driver from a) above using AP v 7 or 8, ready to take control at any time and also scanning the road
e) Inattentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8) - Driver from b) above using AP v 7 or 8, who has no situational awareness of where the car is and is not ready to take control in <x seconds.
We are trying to rank the 5 drivers above from safest to most dangerous. I think Elon would rank them the following
1) Attentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8)
2) Inattentive Human + Machine (AP v7 or 8)
3) Attentive Human
4) Inattentive Human
5) Machine (AP v7 or 8)
I think there is some healthy debate over whether 2 is safer than 3 (or possibly even 4) but that's not what I'd like to debate.
Instead, I'd like to ask how likely it is that we actually end up with driver a) from above. I'm theorizing that using AP v 7 or 8 leads to driver b) more times than driver a) i.e. a quick glance to read a text w/o AP will turn into actually responding to that text w/ AP. A quick glance at a nice view out the driver window will lead to a driver taking a perfectly framed photo of that view. A discussion about a board game will lead to the driver actually playing that board game with a fellow passenger.
This is not an easy answer because none of the statistics put out by Tesla to date answer it for the various reasons discussed above.�
1/1/2015
guest I interpret you as asking whether turning on AP leads to the alternative to 3) being 2) rather than 1). In other words, "what is the corrupting influence of AP?" Good question. I think Elon's complaint/observation from the press conference to the effect that the "expert" users of AP are the ones who ignore warnings is consistent with the corrupting influence view. Frankly, I can't answer from personal experience because although I love playing with AP when appropriate, I don't take long trips in the Tesla and I live in a rural area where AP cannot be used on most of the roads. My guess is that there is some corruption but not too much. I doubt those who have the discipline to be really attentive to begin with are going to radically change their behavior to the negative, particularly since cases like running into the truck remind us of the potential consequences. Although actually, AP may become more corrupting if the radar innovations in 8.0 are demonstrated to make AP more reliable. In fact that is almost certainly the case.�
1/1/2015
guest Speaking from personal experience, media's report on AP accidents helps to keep AP driver to remain attentive. Likely AP accidents will decline after one widely reported accident. Technology improves afterwards. People start to pay less attention, until next accident happens. In the long run safety improves, just one step at a time.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. I use AP with a hand on the wheel these days, while I used to be hands off. The reason is not only the widely-publicized truck accident but also threads here about breaking mirrors on highway cones, driving off roads in Montana, etc.�
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