Sep 5, 2015
MitchJi I guess don't understand that either. Because IMO the primary consumer benefits are the low cost of fuel and the lower maintenance costs. I don't think that convenience should even be considered a benefit. It's not a benefit when you need to refuel.�
Sep 5, 2015
GSP Refueling is much more convenient with EVs. Just plug them in at night. It is a nice benefit.
Of course, EVs can be less convenient for long trips, unless you can use Tesla's superchargers. Just take your secondary car instead.
GSP�
Sep 5, 2015
hcsharp Your post makes me wonder if you own an EV. I find convenience to be a bigger benefit than fuel cost savings and lower maintenance. Taking 3 seconds to plug/unplug at home every day is far more pleasant and convenient than having to remember to visit one of those dirty, stinky, public places. Long road trips require a little advance planning but otherwise not usually less convenient than gas.
My wife put it this way, "You often buy an EV for different reasons than you keep one. You think that buying gas is no big deal because you're used to it and take it for granted. But after driving an EV for a month, you marvel at how nice it is never to have to buy gas or pay attention to how full your tank is. You realize you've gone a whole month without having to remember to schedule your next oil change."
How does this relate to L-T fundamentals? The general public has yet to realize that EVs are more convenient. When we reach that tipping point when the secret finally gets out, I hope Tesla is big enough to take advantage of it.�
Sep 5, 2015
ecarfan Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Do you own an EV? I think you do not. Until you own an EV and live with it for awhile it is hard for some people to understand just how amazingly convenient it is to spend a few seconds plugging the car in at night and unplugging it in the morning and never having to visit a gas station. It is a real benefit of EV ownership, and of course with the Tesla Model S/X the benefit of Supercharging for free long distance travel is also very important.
The benefits of EV extend beyond the charging convenience and the cost savings. They also include a superior driving experience: "one pedal" driving, quiet and smooth acceleration. And many other things. It's a long list.�
Sep 6, 2015
FANGO Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Convenience is absolutely benefit number one. When you need to refuel is exactly what it's a convenience. I don't have to go somewhere else to refuel, my car just does it at home.
Hcsharp I've said the same many times about buying and keeping an EV for a different reason. This is why people don't go back. It's why so many volt owners are scared to go to gas stations or use any gas, and want to move to full EVs Asap. And it's why gas is doomed. People just won't go back.�
Sep 6, 2015
MitchJi I agree that it's a convenience, but I don't think that is a huge primary benefit. As I said I think the primary benefit is the cost savings of not having to pay for gas, and the environmental consequences. Saving fifteen minutes every 400 miles is less than a mosquito bite. Also the original post was directed to all EV's, not just Tesla. So think about a typical EV with an 60-80 mile range and no superchargers. The primary disadvantage of EV's right now is the short range and charging times. Nice try attempting to turn that into a benefit, but IMO it's wrong. It seems so obvious to me that I don't believe I need to explain it.�
Sep 6, 2015
ecarfan You still have not answered the question: do you own an EV? Do you own a Tesla?
I think you do not. So you have not experienced and come to appreciate the significant advantage of home charging, and the significant advantage of Tesla which is the long range (two to three times as much as any other EV) that means almost all the charging needed is done at home which takes just a few seconds a day.
It is "obvious" to EV owners what a huge advantage that is compared to ICE cars. It is not obvious to non-EV owners because they simply accept the fact that they have to go to gas stations regularly. All EV owners understand that mind set because we've all owned ICEs for many years. But people who have only owned ICEs often don't understand the advantage of home charging an EV because they've never done it.�
Sep 6, 2015
Robert.Boston Convenience of refueling matters more to some than to others. For example, Maine winters are very cold, and I really am delighted not to have to stand in a ripping winter wind while I pump gas. I also use to have to build an extra 15 minutes into my schedule leaving from my summer place to drive to Boston to refuel, which meant getting up at 5:15 instead of 5:30. Fifteen minutes at that hour is worth quite a lot, thank you!
Another convenience is being able to pre-heat or pre-cool my car. Getting into a 72�F car regardless of the external temperature is a luxury that ICE vehicles can't offer in all settings (it's a bad idea to use the vehicle pre-start in an enclosed garage, e.g.).�
Sep 6, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney I'll echo what others are saying: you don't own a BEV or even a Volt, which significantly reduce the need to go to gas stations. Like Robert I live in Maine, and filling up can be very unpleasant. Although where I live, you very rarely have to wait to fill up, I am familiar with places where there are frequent lines at gas stations.
Maybe you live in an area of Oregon or New Jersey where you neither have to wait nor have self-service.
Not only is home charging convenient, but public charging also has a convenience: it is unattended. Plugging/unplugging is quick, and then the issue of time is a question of whether you're in a rush, or have something to do. And, if you want, you can wait in your car, with your car running. Or some Tesla owners chat with other owners at Superchargers. It's worth remembering that EV charging sites can be clean, unlike the toxic environments of gas stations, which are equivalent to very busy roads, so they aren't places to hurry away from.
All of this makes the idea of tipping points very relevant. More EVs makes EVs better.�
Sep 6, 2015
sub Having an i3 for the past few months has allowed our family to visit gas stations 75% less if not more. The i3 is always the first car to be driven so the ice cars are only used as secondary cars or for utility (towing etc) or the occasional longer trip out of town. I can't wait to be 100% EV.
its amazing to me how little people care about our melting planet and that a perceived slight inconvenience is enough for them to justify the continued destruction of our environment. I would make EXTRA effort to drive an EV, however, the reality is it's less effort. Win Win.�
Sep 6, 2015
MitchJi Hi,
I think I should try to clarify my views, and apologize for the lack of clarity in my original post on this topic:
What I should have said is something like the following, and I might have mentioned that convenience and comfort do not rate highly in my personal priorities:
I disagree with that list. I think that the "three huge consumer benefits" are the following:
1. The environmental benefits.
2. The lower cost of electricity vs gas.
3. The lower maintenance costs.
The convenience of being able to charge at home is definitely a benefit, but it is a double edged sword when compared to ICE cars, because a side effect of that convenience, is a limited number of places to charge and slow recharging times.
Also even the Superchargers due to the combination of very limited availability compared to gas stations are not fast enough that using them can be considered a "huge consumer...convenience", and most "electric cars" can't use them.
End of what I should have said.
I'm not alone in the opinion that the "convenience" of being able to home charge is a double edged sword:
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Tesla Model S P85D Road Trip –�*Feature – Car and Driver | Car and Driver Blog
And to demonstrate that Car and Driver are not Tesla bashers:
2015 Tesla Model S P85D Long-Term Intro Car and Driver
Exactly :biggrin:!�
Sep 6, 2015
GreenT Yet, MitchJi, you continue to avoid ecarfan's question. Do you own an EV? A Tesla?�
Sep 6, 2015
joefee You have never waited 20 minutes in COSTCO's gas lines 20min+5min = Pain in the A--�
Sep 6, 2015
FANGO Over the course of two years, I've spent literally seconds plugging in my car. Then I go inside and enjoy my time - I eat dinner with family, watch TV, play some games, have some friends over, sleep, any number of normal activities which happen in parallel with my car charging itself, no waiting required.
But you've filled up your car, what, once a week? So 10 minutes x 100 weeks = 1000 minutes, over 16 hours, literally an entire waking day spent in a gas station. A dirty, smelly, expensive gas station, where they have those loud TVs blaring ads at you now, touching a pump that everyone else in the world has touched with their gross hands, funneling your hard earned money to literal terrorists and doing great damage to the world (and thus your own lungs) in the process. And that's not even counting any of the times you have to go out of your way to find gas stations. You count this as a benefit?
Nice try attempting to turn that into a benefit, but it's wrong. It's obvious that it's wrong if you've tried both ways. Own an EV, you will know this. We have all experienced filling gas cars and filling EVs, and we know which is better. If you've only ever experienced one, then I don't see how you can make such an "obvious" decision.
Just as hcsharp said, people who don't own EVs don't get this. They try an EV, they are impressed by the acceleration, or by the environmental benefit, or the cost, or any number of things. These are the reasons people buy EVs. But the reason people keep EVs is because of convenience. People are afraid of change, even positive change, and so they spend a lot of time convincing themselves, or being convinced by powerful interests who benefit from the status quo, that change is hard. But once the change is made, and people see how an EV is tremendously more convenient, they are even more thrilled by the process of ownership than they thought they would be.
You haven't answered whether you own an EV because you probably consider it irrelevant. We're not trying to point fingers or witch hunt you here, we just all know you don't own one because this is something specific to the owner experience which EV owners understand and non-EV owners don't. That's how we can tell, because we all know this is a benefit, not a drawback. And we know it because we've done it. We don't just think it, we haven't deluded ourselves into it, it really is better. Even for those of us who can't supercharge (but especially for those of you who can). If you haven't tried it, then I don't see how you can talk about "explaining" to us how charging is worse, because we've all tried both, and we all know which is better from experience.�
Sep 6, 2015
Johan I agree. If he had said the inconvenience was "charging times when doing long distance travel using the SuperCharger network" (it's less of an inconvenience than most non-owners realize, but it's still the only relevant metric where a Tesla is somewhat of a compromise as compared to an ICE) I'd think he had real life experiences but now I don't. The question I get asked most: "How long does it take to charge?" My answer (yes, I know it's a bit cliche but it accurately describes my experience): "It takes 10 seconds to plug in at night and 10 seconds to unplug in the morning".�
Sep 6, 2015
ecarfan
He clearly does not own an EV.�
Sep 6, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney The vast majority of consumers don't care enough about the environment to make any kind of adjustment. If they did, the new car market would be a lot different, and the market would shift _towards_ efficiency as gas prices fall, not _away_ from it, because lower gas prices would allow people to spend more on efficiency and reduced emissions.�
Sep 6, 2015
GSP Not yet at least, that is clear.
Sounds like he likely will try one in the future, and get hooked like the rest of us.
The implication to TSLA is that it will take time to convert customers to EVs. Some things just require first hand experience.
GSP�
Sep 6, 2015
hcsharp Dude, you need to work on that. Seriously, it's more like 2 seconds to unplug, 2 - 3 seconds to plug in.:biggrin:
(yes, I've actually timed it)
But you had a good answer to "How long does it take to charge?" Another good answer is "I don't know. I'm usually asleep."�
Sep 6, 2015
ecarfan My standard answer is "It takes no time at all because it happens automatically ever night".
It continues to surprise me how many people I talk to seem to struggle to understand that answer.�
Sep 7, 2015
EldestOyster It doesn't surprise me. I remember that before I had an EV I didn't have a clue about the "full tank every morning" concept. Even though I'd heard this "just like a cell phone" analogy many times. In fact, the revelation hit about four months after, when we had a big power outage (2011). The next day I had a lot of questions about how I got home without power. The answer was, "Same way I always do". In fact, as the 10-minute trip down to the freeway took nearly two hours (traffic signals were out), I was able to run the air conditioning as much as I wanted--something that just doesn't work well when an ICE vehicle is standing still. And then I discovered that several of these people had had serious range anxiety issues because there was no pumping of gas with the power out. People who skipped the gas station in the morning, or the day before, figuring they would "put it off until tomorrow". Using up a lot of cpu cycles working out how and when they'd refuel...sure, they don't ever give it a thought...
Be patient with the Muggles. They will understand in time. A big reason for getting an EV was to show them that they really work, and that real people own them.�
Sep 7, 2015
FANGO Relevant to your story, oyster: Log In - The New York Times�
Sep 7, 2015
Oil4AsphaultOnly As a leaf owner, I feel that I must echo the sentiment of the others. "Do you own an EV?" Because not having to refuel for 90% of the miles driven is just as applicable with a leaf, as it is with a tesla. The range of the EV only affects which trips can be covered with it, and which requires an alternate vehicle. I put 16,000 miles per year on my leaf (with using ONLY destination chargers). The convenience of not having to stop by a gas station every week, nor scheduling an oil change every 3 months is HUGE.
The gas savings is what people cite when they first transition to EV's, but the rest of the benefits is what they cite once their eyes have been opened and vow never to switch back. Many of us Leaf owners await the delivery of the model 3 for when we can be rid of our back-up gas-mobile.�
Sep 7, 2015
MitchJi Hi Everyone,
I asked Robert to split this off into a separate thread. This is quoted from the PM I sent him:
I sent that request, because I want to try to address everyone's concerns, but I did not feel comfortable continuing to try to do that in the LT thread.
But please try your best to be polite. And please try to restrict your questions to the clarification I posted at the link below, most of which I will copy below.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/53144-Demand-drivers-for-Tesla-EVs?p=1141829&viewfull=1#post1141829
I think I should try to clarify my views, and apologize for the lack of clarity in my original post on this topic (I added the bold in Zach's post):
What I should have said is something like the following, and I might have mentioned that convenience and comfort do not rate highly in my personal priorities:
I disagree with that list. I think that the "three huge consumer benefits" are the following:
1. The environmental benefits.
2. The lower cost of electricity vs gas.
3. The lower maintenance costs.
The convenience of being able to charge at home is definitely a benefit, but it is a double edged sword when compared to ICE cars, because a side effect of that convenience, is a limited number of places to charge and slow recharging times.
Also even the Superchargers due to the combination of very limited availability compared to gas stations are not fast enough that using them can be considered a "huge consumer...convenience", and most "electric cars" can't use them.
End of what I should have said.
I'm not alone in the opinion that the "convenience" of being able to home charge is a double edged sword:
http://blog.caranddriver.com/alexander-and-the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-tesla-model-s-p85d-road-trip/
I don't mind answering relevant questions,to my clarification above. Which is mostly IMO, do you believe that the "convenience" of home charging is more important than any of the three items on my list?
One of the main reasons is clearly that EV's are not dominant (yet) is the short range coupled with long charge times. If you believe that the convenience of home charging outweighs that, that is fine, but that is clearly a minority opinion. I guess (reluctantly) if you want to politely express disagreement on that point it's ok.
Please Note:
Tesla and Superchargers are only relevant to the comment I added in my clarification "Also even the Superchargers due...", because Zach's original post (I think) and my response was (definitely) referring to all EV's.
If we have a Tesla, is completely irrelevant because I was referring to all EV's. And asking me if we own an EV (we do) is both irrelevant and insulting. Try telling Alexander at Car And Driver that the convenience of home charging outweighs the associated hassles and I bet he would disagree. But I'm sure that he would be annoyed if you then told him his opinion did not count because he doesn't own an EV.
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The convenience of not having to stop at a gas station is trivial for me.
I agree that not needing oil changes is HUGE, which is one of the reasons I put this on my list:
3. The lower maintenance costs.
We are also looking forward to getting a M3.
So our only disagreement is the convenience, which I might have just figured out. I am definitely more frugal than average (my wife says cheap :wink. So the inconvenience of stopping for gas doesn't bother me, but I detest paying for gas and maintenance.
�
Sep 7, 2015
FANGO You say that it's a minority opinion, but it is clearly not. Just from this post you can see that the majority find it more convenient. I am sure that a survey of people who actually have experience in the matter would come out the same.�
Sep 7, 2015
ggr Here I'm going to add my voice to the choir. You keep dodging the question of whether or not you have lived with an EV. Now, my previous gas guzzler was a Mercedes, so for me an oil change involved going past the dealer on the way to work, swapping to a loaner car, and reversing the process on the way home. So aside from the wallet gouging, to the extent of $600-$1000 per year, it only cost an hour of my time. But pretty much every week, I had to detour out of my way, line up at Costco (which actually was by far the most convenient gas station... just braving traffic to get to a more normal gas station would have taken even longer and cost much more), get angsty at the idiots who get to the pump only to realize that their cap is on the wrong side, finally get to the front of the queue, muck around for five minutes, fiddling with credit cards, breathing carcinogens, and then pay $40-$60 for the privilege. That adds up to about 25 hours of my life every year! This is NOT trivial for pretty much anyone.
Before I owned an EV, I would probably not have put this on my list either. But now, like others here, I've lived the dream, and this is a big part of it.
Like others, I've reached the conclusion that you just won't admit that you haven't lived with an EV that you charge in your own garage. Sorry if this comes across as a personal attack, but if the moderators think it is, well... it'll be my second quarantine.�
Sep 7, 2015
eloder I own one of those "short range, slow-charging" EVs and I'd peg convenience as one of the big selling points.
There's nothing inconvenient about either option if you just plan ahead, or just use the right vehicle for the right job. I took a regional trip that used 90% of my range each direction, but all I had to do was plug in my car at my destination and it was finished before I was ready to depart home.�
Sep 7, 2015
MitchJi I did not say that home charging is not more convenient!
I said that is not one of the three top benefits, for me personally, and that the added convenience is offset, to some degree by the facts that chargers ara harder to find, and that charging takes longer. Those are not minority opinion, those are obviously facts!�
Sep 7, 2015
MikeC #1 is more of a societal benefit, the consumer benefit would be "feeling good" about the environmental benefits. #3 is probably less true for Model S with $600/year service. Home charging is in my personal top 3, for sure.�
Sep 7, 2015
MitchJi For me adding gas consists of stopping at a self-serve station in town, when I am driving past there anyway, where I don't remember ever waiting in line. I slide my card into the slot, select my fuel type, and the whole process takes me under 4 minutes.
As for the Oil Change I put maintenance on my list. Can't you see that you are basically saying that I'm wrong because of your own circumstances? And you are also claiming that I'm wrong because your cost of maintenance, which I have stated multiple times, is something that I think is more important than convenience!
So not only are my priorities different than most of you, but my situation is different as well. That does not mean that I am incorrect or an idiot!
I am going to stop replying to posts on this thread, that either ignore what I've said, or can't accept the fact that someone else can have a valid opinion that is different than their own, due to either different circumstances or different personal priorities.�
Sep 7, 2015
lucy I find the regen braking which gives the feel of a manual transmission to be a major benefit as well.
Driving/buying/maintaining a manual transmission car is difficult in these automatic only times, the cars are hard to find, expensive to repair, I over bought the last time just to get a stick shift. Having regen will give me control of the car's momentum without having to have a manual transmission. But driving an automatic had me feeling like the car was driving me, I had to constantly ride the brake to control the car (especially when reversing), could not manage speed with the gears and accelerator as I had been doing for the previous 4+ decades of driving.�
Sep 7, 2015
FANGO Environmental benefits are absolutely consumer benefits. Better environment = better health for consumers.�
Sep 7, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney And #1 is only important to a small fraction of people in the marketplace. Consumers are selfish in their new vehicle purchases, as the trend of vehicle purchases make obvious. The only reason I'm optimistic about plug-ins succeeding is because selfish consumers will buy them, and if I were trying to convince people to buy them, I wouldn't bother trying to appeal to altruism, because it's so unlikely to work.
Getting past the early adopters, my list of demand drivers are:
Responsive.
Quiet.
Smooth.
Refuel at home instead of at a gas station.
Once people _have_ the PEV it becomes easy.�
Sep 7, 2015
MikeC Of course they are - but indirectly and spread equally among everyone, not just for the purchaser of the car. Me buying an electric car does not really improve the quality of the air I breathe, it's the cumulative effect of many others buying one, too.
My point was simply that environmental benefit is probably not one of the 3 top reasons for buying an EV, there are other more direct EV benefits that have a more direct impact on the majority of buyer's overall satisfaction. Like ItsNotAboutTheMoney, I think that most people have more self-interested motivations.�
Sep 7, 2015
Oil4AsphaultOnly I think that might be the source of why you wouldn't consider home fueling as a big convenience. I live within 5 blocks from a gas station, but gas prices being what they are, I preferred the one near my parent's place (10 cent difference, but 8 miles away!), or the gas from costco (closest one is 4 miles away). So I either had to plan in advance to penny-pinch, or be gouged for the "convenience" - unless there was a power-outage, or the refueling tanker is there blocking half the stalls and we're all waiting in line adding insult to injury. With the leaf, I no longer had to worry about when to refuel or to pay more so that I could get back on the road quickly. This was a mental note that occurred EVERY week, and it started with the question, "can I hold off for 2 more days?". I didn't realize that I was suffering from empty-tank anxiety until AFTER living with a leaf.
Now, if I had lived right next to costco, then yeah, the convenience argument is much harder to make. But I would think that there are more people in my situation, who don't live near a low-priced gas station, than the reverse.
My top three benefits:
- lower cost of ownership (fuel and maintenance)
- convenience (it's ready to go every day)
- performance (the leaf is zippy even if it's not fast)�
Sep 7, 2015
Tuan Agreed. Road trip charging is NOT convenient. Sometimes superchargers are several miles off the travel path - St George Utah is one of them.�
Sep 8, 2015
Drax7 Safest sedan on the road, nobody can object to that ,
even though it's a low priority, it's a good rationalization .�
Sep 8, 2015
ecarfan MitchJi, thanks for your latest lengthy post and clarification. To refer back to your OP (above) I hope you can now understand why it resulted in a torrent of disagreement. You clearly stated that in your opinion "convenience" (of charging) was could not even be called a "benefit" of EVs compared to fueling an ICE vehicle. You are of course welcome to your opinion but I think it is clear that probably almost every Tesla owner strongly disagrees with you on that point for all the reason expressed so far in this thread.
After repeated queries by myself and others you appear to have finally answered the question of whether or not you own an EV by saying, quote: "If we have a Tesla, is completely irrelevant because I was referring to all EV's. And asking me if we own an EV (we do) is both irrelevant and insulting". I am sorry you felt insulted, that was not my intent at all. But as has been stated repeatedly in this thread by multiple people, the EV owning experience frequently results in owners coming to the conclusion that home charging is far more convenient than going to a gas station, and since generally home charging covers a very high percentage of EV mileage, owners by and large are in agreement about EV charging being one of the primary benefits.
You obviously disagree. Which is fine. But your reluctance to state if you were an EV owner or not, and then to finally say that you were but not state what model of EV you owned, leads me to speculate that it is a short range model that you do not use as your primary vehicle. Again, that is fine, but for many Tesla owners it is our primary vehicle and therefore we are very appreciative of the convenience of home charging and not having to ever go to a gas station (I have not been to one in almost a year, it's a wonderful feeling!) and we rank that as a significant benefit.
Owning a Tesla compared to owning any other EV is fundamentally different because of the much longer range and the fact that for many people a Tesla can serve as their primary or preferred vehicle.�
Sep 8, 2015
mknox Interesting (to me) how so many people detest going to gas stations. That's so low on my radar as to be inconsequential. That never really bothered me, nor does it today when I take my wife's ICE for gas (apparently she hates it and gets me to fill her car up!).�
Sep 8, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Like you, it doesn't bother my wife, but if I refused to fill up the car, I'd bet she'd find home refueling more appealing in the middle of winter.�
Sep 8, 2015
dalalsid Costco, Sams and Kroger, all on my way to and from somewhere so fueling is very convenient and most often line free. Yet I would say that home fueling is the number 1 benefit of my Leaf. Simply because I never need to know if I need fuel or not. The lack of knowledge about the status of fuel in my other car is bothersome. Even if it cost me the same to fuel an EV vs gas car, the EV wins because of home fueling. There cannot be enough said about full tank every morning. And people do not get it until they actually own an EV. So my answer to what's the range of the Leaf is slowly changing from "80 miles" to "who cares, I have a full tank each morning" because I really have no idea how far the Leaf will really go�
Sep 8, 2015
RobStark I think how convenient pumping gas is largely depends on population density.
Pumping gas in West Los Angeles between 7AM and 10AM or 3PM and 7PM is a major league PITA.
Less so if you pump after 10PM or willing to pump at the most expensive station in your area.
In other words it is a PITA to pump when driving to or from work.
Less likely to experience long wait times if you make a special trip for gas during "off peak hours".�
Sep 8, 2015
Robert.Boston So I think this thread is coming to a consensus: there's a broad range of reasons a particular consumer might want to buy an EV. Some might look to the big-picture environmental benefits, some to the pocket-book issue of buying gas (and the volatility of that cost, making budgets hard to work out), others for personal convenience of not spending time getting gas and oil changes, great personal saftey from the lack of carrying your own accelerant, etc. As an economist, I can confidently say that we can't predict which of this menu will be important to any particular consumer, but the breadth of the benefits should be compelling to a great many consumers.
Against all these positives, the only negative I can think of is the (slight) inconvenience on long-distance travel.�
Sep 8, 2015
davewill If you haven't experienced an EV, your opinion isn't valid on this issue. Now you could have argued that it can't drive demand because demand (for now) has to come from people, like you, who have not experienced an EV.�
Sep 8, 2015
ZachShahan Indeed.
Funny to just now come to a 6-page thread that started based on a comment/claim I made.
A few points here:
1) I've been covering the EV movement practically every day for several years. The statement that kicked off this thread is based on paying close attention to EV owners as well as reading and writing about many reports, and even working on a report on EVs right now.
2) It may not be the case for everyone, but convenience is consistently a highly touted and highly rated benefit of EVs... which is "interesting" since the mass media flips that on its head and thinks it's the other way around.
3) Obviously, the response here backs this up...
4) I was indeed very careful with my words (as I try to be) when I wrote "consumer benefits." The climate crisis is driving much of the EV policy, EV development (part of why Tesla is here today), and early adoption. However, it is the consumer benefits that will make EVs the norm rather than a niche option. I think it's very clear that convenience is one of the biggest consumer benefits -- if not the biggest consumer benefit. But, as others have said, most people won't get this until they've experienced it. In the meantime, people, please keep telling others about your 2- to 3-second "fill-ups," recharging while you sleep, etc.
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No one is saying you can't have your own list of priorities/benefits -- just that they aren't the norm.
In my "8 Reasons Electric Cars Kick Your Car�s Boot" article, fuel savings and fewer maintenance needs are two of the items. But the fact of the matter is, for many people, the higher upfront price of EVs is still a bigger turnoff, and it's also often a higher extra cost than the fuel/maintenance savings offer. (It really depends on individual circumstances and varies greatly.)
Those are benefits. But the ones I mentioned are widely ranked higher by EV owners/lessees. Not by 100% of people, but by the largest %
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I agree. But most consumers are not going to prioritize that. It is the direct consumer benefits of the product when they use it that will inspire the masses to go electric.
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I hate it, and I'm sure a lot of people find it annoying and inconvenient, but I'd bet that those of us more concerned about the carcinogens that cost society hundreds of billions of dollars a year are the ones more bothered by it. Raised by parents concerned about such matters, I were socialized to avoid such carcinogens, and gas stations are basically epicenters of these delightful things.
I know some people actually like the smell of gas. Not connecting the dots and enjoying something that is as harmful as it is bewilders me. But, yes, we've all been socialized differently and have different levels of concern when it comes to such matters.�
Sep 8, 2015
davidc18 +1 - you must be kidding. For us, not having to "get gas" is a primary benefit of owning a Tesla. As soon as our extended warranty runs out on our Odyssey, we are getting a second Tesla. We would love to get an X but if there is still a waiting list we can settle for another S.
�
Sep 8, 2015
mkjayakumar MitchJi is a classic example of how difficult it is to make someone understand the benefits of an EV, if you haven't owned one for some time. Test drives are great to experience the amazing torque and regen, but even for that you need to drive it around for a few days to understand how addictive it is.
Most of them end up doing calculations on a spreadsheet to find out cost of ownership and savings, and that is completely missing the point.
Even If gas prices were to drop less than a buck, the amazing torque and the benefits of a full tank every day morning is enough to keep me on an EV.�
Sep 8, 2015
wdolson Just up front, I don't own an EV yet, though I'm a Tesla convert. I started a thread a while back about what I saw as the demographics of who buys Teslas:
1) Environmentally conscious people - These are the people you would expect to buy a hybrid or BEV. They are concerned about the environment and want to do their part to save the planet. It's probably the group you would expect to buy Teslas.
2) Luxury car buyers - There is a fair bit out there comparing the Tesla to other $100K cars from Mercedes, BMW, etc. and I have seen a number of people with blogs or YouTube videos who did get a Tesla after driving these other luxury cars.
3) Hotrodders - YouTube is full of videos of people drag racing Teslas against some of the highest performance cars in the world. The P models are marketed towards these people.
4) Techies - These are probably the same sort of people who sat in line outside an Apple store to get the latest iPhone at least once. Or they are early adopters of new technology in one way or another.
I would add a 5th group from this thread and comments elsewhere
5) Convenience fans - People who hate buying gas and love having a "full tank" for their commute every morning. As well as those looking for a car that requires less maintenance than an ICE and they like the cheaper "fuel".
Probably every buyer is a mix of these to some extent. I see a difference between the Tesla and other EV market. The general EV market is pretty much a concentration of #1 and #5 and the price of gas at the pump is going to affect that market to some degree. A number of EVs have seen sales drop this year, but they have new models coming out which might be suppressing sales, but the price of oil has dropped this year too.
Tesla appeals to a wider audience other EVs don't touch and the Model S has been more immune to the fluctuations in the price of oil.
If mainstream car makers start coming out with 200 mile EVs, that will help sell them to some extent, but if they are kind of gutless, spartan, and low in tech features, I doubt they will put much of a dent in Tesla sales.�
Sep 8, 2015
mkjayakumar I suspect 'Environmental benefits' is just a foot note for a majority of current owners. IMHO It's impact as an EV sales driver is way overblown.�
Sep 8, 2015
wdolson For Tesla I think it is more so than for other EVs. I don't know many EV drivers personally, but I know a lot of Prius owners. Every other car in Portland is a Prius. A major motivation for many of them are environmental concerns. I suspect environmental concerns is a major factor in Leaf and Volt sales.
I'm not as rabid an environmentalist as many people I know, but one of my criteria in my car search was better gas mileage than my current car (23 year old Buick). Because of my long legs and need for a good road car that fits me, I'm already pushed into a larger car. I would fit in an SUV, but I don't like them and their fuel economy is often worse than my current car. I found most cars in the size range I was looking in have only slightly better gas mileage than my current car. I was surprised at the lack of progress in the last 23 years.
My casting about for better fuel economy (that also wasn't gutless and had good storage space) led me to look at Tesla on a lark, even though it was out of my target price range by a wide margin. I'm going to have to save up longer than I expected though my SO is talking about selling some property she was thinking about selling for a while to help advance the schedule a bit.�
Sep 8, 2015
RobStark It is two steps forward and 1.5 back. A lot of weight is added for safety features and requirements and some for luxury features.
Direct fuel injection, regen braking even on non-hybrids,micro hybrids, stop and go engine deactivation, almost seamless cylinder deactivation, high strength steels, more aluminum,various plastics( a 100k+ mile plastic ICE could be made now but it would be unmarketable thanks to memories of the Chevy Vega).
But Volvo has set a goal of zero vehicular deaths soon (2020?) others will have to follow and "mainstream" $30k Camry's and Accords must have a feature list better than BMW and MB had 23 years ago.
Seems everybody "needs" heated,ventilated and cooled seats.
So that makes cars porky, hence lower MPG gains.�
Sep 9, 2015
ZachShahan That's a good summary, but a few things are still lacking. 1) A lot of people want to dump gas for socioeconomic-political reasons -- whether that combines with #1 & #5 depends on the individual. 2) The different/new/better tech of EVs (beyond Tesla) still attracts a lot of techies. 3) A *lot* of EV owners/lessees (beyond Tesla ones) love the instant torque/performance of their EVs, and that was surely a buying factor for many of them.
I recently conducted a survey of 819 EV owners/lessees. ~20% had a Tesla. When Asked about their favorite thing about their EVs, 18% chose the climate benefits, 16% not supporting the oil industry, 13% instant torque, 11% convenient home charging, 10% can drive on sunshine. Remember, though, these are early adopters. When it comes to EVs becoming mainstream, the climate benefits most certainly will not be #1, and I am confident "not supporting the oil industry" won't be in the top 3.
My 11 cents�
Sep 9, 2015
wdolson Good point, I'm one of those who would like to see us move away from oil for socio-political reasons, as well as local pollution issues. Spilled oil and fuel gets into waterways, transporting crude by pipeline or rail can lead to spills, cars with faulty emission systems pour gunk into the air (as well as diesels) that ruin air quality. I grew up in Los Angeles when the air quality was at its worst and I had chronic allergies throughout my childhood. They went away when I moved away, but it scarred my lungs and sinuses. History shows that there are a lot more damage done by accidents transporting crude oil than there are transporting electricity over long distances.
I also agree that most of the people going for an EV now have some kind of motive like climate or socio-political and that won't hold when they become mainstream. I've noticed that the bulk of the population tend to reject any new idea until they have seen that it doesn't cause problems. Resistance to marijuana and gay marriage declined very rapidly when various states (and other countries) made moves to legalize and nothing terribly bad happened. There are still some people strongly resisting both, but the middle of the population who initially resisted now accept the idea.
These same conservative people (not necessarily politically conservative, just wary of change) need to be shown that the new thing is at least neutral to society as a whole. If it can be proven to be a benefit, all the better.
EVs, in their current form, are still a new thing and there are some legitimate arguments against them. In an ICE, I can drive from Portland to the Bay Area in one day only stopping for food, calls of nature, and short refueling breaks. It takes 10 minutes to put 400 miles of fuel in my car and deal with snacks and a potty break. With a Model S, the maximum I can get from a fill up is about 250 miles, and that takes an hour or more at a supercharger, though about 200 miles takes about 40 minutes. I don't have a Model S yet, so I don't know how that will play out in my life. I think I can probably recharge myself by taking a short nap while the car is recharging. However, it is something that requires changing the way you drive on a long trip.
High speed chargers are also still a bit spotty. There are some parts of the world where CHAdeMo and/or superchargers are common, but they still aren't ubiquitous. Gas stations are. If you're on a back road in Arkansas, you can find a gas station, but you might be only able to find a 110V outlet to charge your EV.
There are advantages to EVs over ICE, such as more compact motors, much better torque, being able to refuel the car at home, etc. But there are still some drawbacks and the charging time probably won't be solved until the battery technology changes to some new type of battery chemistry that hasn't been invented yet. Even if invented tomorrow it would be at least 10 years before they were in production cars, probably longer.
The conservative middle have to see that EVs are safer, more convenient most of the time, peppier, and generally better than ICE for almost everything before they are going to be swayed. Those who don't want to see EVs become popular are doing everything they can to convince the middle that they aren't better. Most traditional car makers who make alternative vehicles make the consumer feel you need to give something up and/or drive a car that makes you look like a prat to use those alternatives. I pretty much exhausted all the alternatives looking at cars. The bulk of hybrids take up trunk space with the batteries, so you have little cargo space left. The Fusion PHEV only has an 8 cu ft trunk. The ICE version has 16 cu ft.
The Prius is popular because it is one of the few alternative vehicles from mainstream car makers that doesn't have huge sacrifices. However, I find them kind of ugly and no Toyota car has enough legroom for me.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe I know plenty of people that can afford 10, but aren't even thinking about getting one (other than listening to me tell them how great they are).
I have a neighbor that drives from Savannah, GA (actually 20 miles west of Savannah off I-16) to Charlotte, NC (King's Mountain west of Charlotte actually). I sort of had her thinking she might want one. So, she asked me what she would have to do on her regular trips to Charlotte as far as charging (keeping in mind that she drives between 78-82mph). I had already sold her on the fact that she would never again have to stop at a gas station for her local driving. She was in love with that. So, I checked out her route. She drives from her home to I-95 which is about 25 miles. She then goes north on I-95 to I-26, to I-77 to Charlotte. Basically, she would have to stop at both the Santee Charger and the Charlotte charger. The Santee stop would be about 20 minutes, but the Charlotte charge would need to be a full charge. Keep in mind, she makes this drive both ways the same day. Also, keep in mind that the Santee charger is about 10 miles north of where she normally gets off at I-26. So, not only does she have a 20 minute charge there, but she also has a 20 minute detour. The supercharger in Charlotte is also not on her route. It is a 20 minute detour away. So, there's another 40 minutes (plus at least 40 minutes to charge). The charge at Santee ultimately costs her 40 minutes x 2 (80 minutes). And the Charlotte charge costs her 80 minutes (20 detour time +40 charge time +20 detour time).
So, if she drives a Tesla on these trips, her day will be longer by AT LEAST 2 hours and 40 minutes (minus the 10 minutes it takes her to fill her gas tank now). She looked at me and said, "you're out of your mind."
It's not a question of money - sorry to say.�
Oct 8, 2015
sub Well there you have it, it won't currently work for this one lady so Tesla is doomed, Everyone sell your positions quick!
The doom and gloom on these forums this past month is becoming almost unbearable, I've considered stepping away until Q1 but then how would I fill my down time during the day. How many times has the mood been like this over the past few years? It never lasts, rational thought eventually returns.
The next 12 months is not going to be comparable to the last 12 months because the financials will be doing a 180 (cash flow positive).�
Oct 8, 2015
Gerasimental Mood on TMC is a fantastic indicator. This feels amazingly much like 10-11 months ago.�
Oct 8, 2015
Big-T Of course, because everyone drives 4 hours across 3 states on a regular basis�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe Some of you people sure get to be smart-asses when the stock price goes down. Take a chill, it will come back. And read the context of my post. It was in reply to Drax saying that someone else thinks it's only a matter of people having money to afford a Tesla. That simply is NOT true.
And, obviously, this lady is the norm. If a trip from a decent sized city like Savannah to a large city like Charlotte, where there are reasonable access to SuperChargers, adds 2 hours and 40 minutes, think about what it adds for people traveling in smaller, more remote areas. Not everyone lives in California or New York. Selling 25-30k cars in the US is still a niche market - no matter what anyone thinks. To get to the point where people go to buy a car and simply decide whether the Model S (or X or 3) is the better choice for them without giving much thought that it is an electric car, Tesla has to reduce these increases in travel time. Adding 25-40% to travel times just isn't going to cut it. That was true now AND when the stock price was $275. Sorry.�
Oct 8, 2015
Drax7 Dont know anybody that routinely drives more than 50 miles per day.
For long trips most fly. Buy that's just me . I will not
base my investment view on charging time and range.
I will not let the exception be the rule.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe People don't consider best-case scenarios when buying a car. Any car will do the local travel. What they consider is the worse case. They may only drive across 3 states once a year, but they want to know that the car they buy (for $100k) can do it without any worries and without GREAT effort or time. That simply is not the case today.
When you spend $100k on a vehicle, it needs to do EVERYTHING well. Most people aren't like us and consider the trade-offs (ie, never having to stop and get gas again during our daily driving, no oil changes or tuneups). They simply consider whether the car can do everything they need it to (or may need it to). Most people aren't going to buy a car for local driving and a car for that once or twice a year long trip. Nor do they want to have to rent one. A $100k car should be it. And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people that don't have a Tesla (that can afford one) and you'll see.�
Oct 8, 2015
sub You're discounting the fact that there is a growing percentage of the population that will deal with the minor inconveniences of a Tesla because they actually care about something more than themselves, this includes me. I wouldn't pay 40k for an ICE vehicle ever again in my life but 100k for a Tesla, I don't have a problem with that. It's been bought up before, there are as many or more people trading up to a Tesla from inexpensive cars as there are from Luxury cars because they see the value and they actually give a damn. Can't believe this conversation is still happening.
The point of my previous smart ass post was exactly that point, relax people. Stocks go up, they go down, they go back up again. Seems a couple people got my joke�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe Yea, I-95 isn't bumper to bumper 24 hours a day. OK.�
Oct 8, 2015
Gerasimental Really? According to Google maps that is a 3.5 hour drive, with no traffic. is it the norm for people to spend 8 hours a day driving? News to me.�
Oct 8, 2015
jhm This illustrates how important it is to develop a dense and well located Supercharging network. Santee and North Charlotte are both poorly located for this trip. It's more important to minimize the detour time than the charging time at this point. Driving out of your way even adds to the charging time since more kWh are required.
Fortunately, Tesla is planning a Columbia, SC Supercharger this year. This station should avoid most of the detour time. Columbia to Kings Mountain is about 120 miles, so round trip she'll need a little more charging. If there is destination charging for her in Kings Mountain that could do it. Otherwise, she'll need another supercharger south or west of Charlotte. Unfortunately, such a location does not seem to be on Tesla's list even in 2016. So your friend may need to wait several years for the Supercharging network to be sufficiently built out for her particular needs. Or maybe a 90D could resolve this once the Columbia station is go.
In every market you'll find situations like this. I have one colleague who would love to buy a Tesla, but must travel for business from Charlotte to Atlanta. Fortunately, the Greenville, SC station is now in construction. So once that is a go, he won't need to put it off any longer.
So the good news here is that there is a developmental path to making this work. The more Teslas there are on the road, the denser the network will become. And this leads to expanding the addressable market. One serious advantage of selling a lot of Gen 3 vehicles will be the scale and density to support a much better Supercharger network. Larger batteries and faster charging will help, but there is no substitute for having a better network.�
Oct 8, 2015
uselesslogin By this logic Tesla should not be selling 12,000 cars per quarter. So it is a pointless argument at this point. Tesla has already shown people will buy their car. Better yet the anecdote you provided about the woman with the inconvenient trip? That won't be so bad if superchargers are added in the right places and maybe she'll buy one. Oh yeah, we know they are working on faster supercharging as well for some future date.�
Oct 8, 2015
Gerardf With all due respect, this is the short term investment thread.
I would also like remind you that Tesla's problem is not demand. Every car Tesla can produce is already sold. Actually for the Model-X at the moment the problem is even to much demand for the short term production rate. So we should actually be happy not every 'average Joe' is already ordering now, they should wait for the GF to come online.
For this type of discussion find a thread to discuss with the people who only have one car as daily driver, customer visits & roadtrips. (I am one of those).�
Oct 8, 2015
Big-T Alright then, I expect the BMW dealer to show me the 7 series off roading it in the mountains. NO? Maybe the Audi 8 would be better? Mercedes S550? I'm running out of 100k cars.....Common, just because a car is expensive doesn't mean it's going to do EVERYTHING well.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe Sorry to tell you, but that growing number of the population is VERY, VERY small. In fact, I doubt it is even measurable (given that Tesla's overall growth is hardly measurable against automobile sales as a whole). The truth is this. I am a libertarian-conservative minded person. We live in a neighborhood with about 50-50 liberals to conservatives. While we are politically conservative, we fail to see how that impacts how we feel about the environment (I've never really understood how the environment is political anyway). We do everything we can to help. We rinse all of our food cans, milk containers, etc and recycle them. We go to great effort to recycle anything that can be recycled. In fact, we often have to use our neighbor's recycle bin because ours is full. Which brings me to my next point. That neighbor is a HUGE liberal and rails constantly about the environment - when I mention recycling, they always say it is very important. They bash companies that don't use recyclable materials. Yet, they recycle NOTHING!! They always tell me that they simply don't have time to rinse all the stuff out and segregate the recyclable trash from the non-recyclable. In fact, only one of the liberal leaning families does recycle. And get this, WE are the only family with an EV. My liberal neighbors that care for the environment so much have 3 ICE vehicles and say that EVs simply won't work for their situation. So, what we have in America is one group that doesn't believe in climate change and could care less, and another group that say they care, but is NOT willing to actually DO anything but talk about it. They expect someone else to do it. When I was in Boston a while back (and was driving my EV), I was SO ready to see a bunch of EVs. I mean after all, it's a blue state and all. I saw one! One. I see WAY more in Atlanta than anywhere else. Why? Because people spend their hard earned money on things for reasons other than the environment. People in Atlanta bought a ton of Leafs because of the $5k GA rebate. It simply made economic sense. People may talk a bunch of crap about the environment, but VERY few actually do anything - especially if it means a little sacrifice on their part.
People will buy Teslas in droves when they can do (or nearly do) everything their ICE car can do and they don't have to think about it a lot. If that were not the case, then more people would be buying them than just in the states that have incentives on top of the fed rebate. Besides, a while back, AT&T said that the most visited web site in a Tesla Model S (10 times the national average) was drudgereport.com - an ultra conservative web site. So, I think it is reasonable to say that as many conservatives buy the Model S for economic reasons as environmentalists buy it for environmental reasons. In fact, I wish Musk would stop even mentioning the environment when speaking about Tesla. It's a great car that also happens to be environmentally friendly. Leave it at that.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe Her thought process for buying an EV is the norm. That's why ICE cars are still 99% of all vehicle sales. You do realize that right?�
Oct 8, 2015
FANGO No, this lady is mythical. No 4 hour trip will have 2h40 added to it. That trip is 251 miles. That requires zero charging. 20 minutes if you want safety. Come on.
And if time is such a factor, take a plane. If it's not, then don't complain about time.
This person is not "the norm" at all. Normal people do not drive 500 miles in a day. You are talking about .01% of the population. I have no idea why anyone is engaging you in your fantastical thought experiment.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe I agree 100%. I have posted in the past that we need SuperChargers every 50 miles to give people that secure feeling just like in an ICE car. This would cut down on the increased travel time a lot also. But, Tesla chose to spend millions on falcon wing doors that could have been spent on SuperChargers. I really think the chargers would have been WAY more beneficial at this point in Tesla's life than the falcon doors. There are a LOT of people that would buy a Tesla with many, well-placed Superchargers built (someone just referenced a friend in Atlanta that is waiting on Greenville, SC to be finished), but not many people are going to say, I really didn't want a Tesla or an EV, but I REALLY want Falcon wing doors so I'm going to buy a Model X. When you have limited funds, you simply have to make great decisions about how to spend those funds.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe Fango, you should really reada the entire post before you reply. The trip is actually 270 miles. When you have to detour 20 miles for one SC and 40 for the other, that makes it 330 miles. And the lady drives almost 80 on average so she will only get about 220 miles of range. And with no charging, how the F will she get back? (even is she COULD make it all the way without charging). Or did you even read the post?
And yes, this lady's question about how long it takes to charge is the norm. That's everyone's first question. I post on a college football forum a lot and when we talk about EVs (Tesla), it's always the first thing they say - traveling in that car is too cumbersome. You guys really need to get out of your little circles and talk to average joe a little. These are the people that aren't buying Teslas that Tesla needs to convince - not you and me.�
Oct 8, 2015
Gerasimental Sure, but she is very unusual in actually having a good reason to stay ICE. Most people *think* they are in her situation, when really they would probably *save* time with a long range EV.
In the context of your comment, it certainly sounded very much like you were implying that her travelling requirements were the norm, which is wildly untrue. Apologies if I misinterpreted that.
Edit: on topic.
Entry point 208. I'm not worried about this dip at all as nothing has changed wrt to the fundamentals. Only possible near-term catalyst I see is better than expected financials in Q3. I expect higher Model S margins as RHD D models have begin being delivered and there was no end-of-q push at all. Still, that alone will not change sentiment and I expect TSLA to bleed more in Q4.
I'm patiently watching TSLA, following Model X threads for hints of progress, and following sentiment here and on Stocktwits, keeping an eye out for re-entry points to accumulate.�
Oct 8, 2015
FANGO I certainly consider the worst-case scenario. Ever having to stop at a gas station is the worst-case scenario. So I buy a car where I won't ever have to do that.
And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people who have any experience whatsoever with an EV and you'll see.
The fact that you're asking people who *don't* have experience with EVs, and thinking that their opinion of how EVs work is more valid than people who *do* have experience driving not just EVs but ICEs, is sort of ridiculous. EV drivers overwhelmingly prefer charging to filling up, and they have tried both. It's pretty clear which is superior.
- - - Updated - - -
Maybe by, I don't know, charging? I count 5 DC fast charge stations in Savannah. 4 within the ring in Charlotte. There isn't "no charging" anywhere. A guy drove a Roadster around the entire world several years ago, no problem, even through Inner Mongolia and the Ural mountains. And there's probably 10-20 times as many chargers now as when he did it.
Do you know anything about EVs? You seem to have a lot of experience talking to people who know nothing about EVs, and know nothing about them yourself, and are providing a lot of "answers" to these people despite not knowing anything about them. If you did know anything about them, you would know that charging instead of fueling is a benefit, not a drawback. And you would not make up ridiculous numbers like needing to charge 2h40 on a 250 mile drive.�
Oct 8, 2015
uselesslogin OK, well, I mostly agree with you here.�
Oct 8, 2015
Gerasimental Me too and I wish we had a dedicated global Supercharger progress thread again! Looks to me like Supercharger build-out has slowed in 2015, but maybe we'll get another end of year explosion. Could this slow-down be to do with keeping capex down? I hope not.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe So, you're asking the choir (1% of the population) if they like EVs? That's not who we have to convince!�
Oct 8, 2015
FANGO When you're wondering about a product, do you ask people who have tried it or people who have no idea what they're talking about?
You seem to be trusting the people who have no idea what they're talking about. This is not the way to get accurate information. Perhaps that's where you got the idea that you need to charge for 2h40m to drive 250 miles.
Regardless, as someone said before, this is irrelevant to short-term Tesla, because nobody is having trouble selling Teslas right now. And products which have universally-positive word of mouth from users don't typically have problems longer term either.�
Oct 8, 2015
Buddyroe Benz over on Tesla's General forum keeps good statistics pertaining to SuperChargers. 2015 will be close to 2014 in terms of SCers opened. Here is his break down (does not include the Wisconsin SC that just opened).
Update including October 6th, 2015:
North America
2012: 0 + 0 + 2 + 7 = 9
2013: 0 + 2 + 11 + 28 = 41
2014: 32 + 16 + 19 + 35 = 102
2015: 42 + 19 + 22 + 0 = 83
Total: 9 + 41 + 102 + 83 = 235
Europe
2013: 0 + 0 + 6 + 8 = 14
2014: 0 + 10 + 44 + 54 = 108
2015: 19 + 19 + 32 + 1 = 71
Total: 14 + 108 + 71 = 193
Asia Pacific (Currently: China, Japan, Australia)
2014: 0 + 3 + 16 + 39 = 58
2015: 15 + 5 + 15 + 0 = 35
Total: 58 + 35 = 93
Global total: 235 + 193 + 93 = 521
2012 Global total: 9 + 0 + 0 = 9
2013 Global total: 41 + 14 + 0 = 55
2014 Global total: 102 + 108 + 58 = 268
2015 Global total so far: 83 + 71 + 35 = 189
Q1 2013 total: 0 + 0 + 0 = 0
Q2 2013 total: 2 + 0 + 0 = 2
Q3 2013 total: 11 + 6 + 0 = 17
Q4 2013 total: 28 + 8 + 0 = 36
Q1 2014 total: 32 + 0 + 0 = 32
Q2 2014 total: 16 + 10 + 3 = 29
Q3 2014 total: 19 + 44 + 16 = 79
Q4 2014 total: 35 + 54 + 39 = 128
H1 2014: 32 + 29 = 61
H2 2014: 79 + 128 = 207
Q1 2015 total: 42 + 19 + 15 = 76
Q2 2015 total: 19 + 19 + 5 = 43
Q3 2015 total: 22 + 32 + 15 = 69
Q4 2015 (so far): 0 + 1 + 0 = 1 (in 6 days)
H1 2015: 76 + 43 = 119 (in 181 days)
H2 2015 (so far): 22 + 33 + 15 = 70 (in 98 days)
"189 new live Supercharger stations in 279 days (in 2015). The average is more than 0.6774 per day (in 2015)". That looks like the going average these days. The average in 2014 was 0.7342 (= 268/365). And that still is extraordinary progress, although the average in 2015 (so far) is lower than the average in 2014.
Link
Moderators - feel free to move this as needed. Just wanted to post it here since the question was raised here.�
Oct 8, 2015
doggusfluffy To bring this very point back to the ST context, this has been my underlying frustration with Tesla's softshoe approach lately. The primary goal is education and letting the rest of the world in on the exciting future possibilities...and what is already available. So in my mind, if you can achieve that through the fanfare and hype I expected around the Model X unveiling, it would have benefited every aspect of Tesla's plans. They could be positioning as the ideal solution to the VW recall which would drive Model S sales as well as X reservations. This is when the cards near your chest is beyond perplexing as a strategy...for me at least.�
Oct 8, 2015
Gerasimental Thanks - I agree that we will likely end up with the same number built in 2015 than 2014 - but only because 2014 start very very slowly. I seem to remember them saying they would 'accelerate' SpC buildout this year and I see no evidence of that.�
Oct 8, 2015
jhm The round trip is 8 hours not counting detours to poorly located Superchargers. I live in Atlanta and work with lots
of people who routinely drive between Atlanta and Charlotte for business purposes. That too is an 8 hour round trip. There is no Supercharger between Atlanta and Charlotte. So this has been a deal breaker for potential Tesla buyers in this region.
There is no point on giving Buddy a hard time on this. The Supercharger network has simply been inadequate in the South excluding Florida. Tesla is addressing this, but it is much more aggressive in the Northeast and West. The South is more spread out than the dense urban areas in the Northeast and California. People in those markets might well fail to see that different regions have different transportation needs. In the South many professionals really do have a business need to travel from one urban center to another urban center 200 miles apart. Such trips are on the borderline between flying and driving, especially when you consider all the waiting time in airports and the need to rent cars for ground transportation at your destination. If there were high population density in the South then the airports and ground transportation would be better. So many business travelers in the South actually prefer to drive 200 miles to a city than put up with air travel. Again people in the dense urban areas of the Northeast and California may easily take all this for granted and underestimate transportation needs in other regions.
BTW, why are there more Superchargers in Utah than Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama combined? How many business travelers drive through Utah? That might be nice for Californians on a ski vacation. Tesla really needs to look at business traveler needs on a regional basis. Simply put, the South is underserved.�
Oct 8, 2015
9837264723849 Don't you want people who don't know anything about EVs to consider buying an EV? The supercharger network isn't large enough, and few people are fully aware that their house will be their primary fueling station.
We shouldn't dismiss the stories of potential customers who can't get an EV. Actually, I want to hear more from them than from Tesla owners [edit: in another thread, of course!]. We already know that Tesla owners love their car, so what's the point to continually praise Tesla and ignore its future customers?�
Oct 8, 2015
Drax7 electricity flows everywhere, billions of electrical outlets, listen to whomever�
Oct 8, 2015
wdolson Not every vehicle is right for every person and every need. If I had a need to haul hay or a trailer on a regular basis, I would probably have a pick up truck. If I had a bunch of kids, I would probably have some kind of vehicle capable of hauling all of them at one time. If I had to drive off road, I would have a 4 wheel drive. If I regularly had to make 300 mile road trips, I probably wouldn't be seriously considering a Tesla. Especially in a part of the country where superchargers and access to other fast chargers is limited. It would also be impractical in a part of the world where driving away from the grid was necessary like some parts of the rural western US.
The number of people who are in a situation where an EV isn't going to work for them is small, and as battery capacities and options for fast charging both expand, those people will diminish with time. Additionally there are currently little in the way of viable EV options for people who need a street legal truck with capabilities on par with an ICE pick up. That will change in the next decade, but that's the reality today.
Awareness of EV capabilities and what is available varies by region. Here in the Western US, Tesla is a very well known brand and about 90% of the people I have talked to about Tesla want one. For most it's an intense desire. In other parts of the country there are less aware of Tesla and there can be more political resistance idea of EVs. There isn't as big a pent up demand for Teslas there.
Right now the critics who say EVs are just playthings for the rich or the super eco people because they are all super expensive or short ranged oddities is true. That will change with the Model 3. Anyone who knows much about Tesla knows this, but most people aren't that aware.
Even still when the Model 3 hits full production, about 600,000 cars a year is still a small car company. Subaru is the smallest mainstream car company selling in the US and they produce a little less than 1 million cars a year. When Tesla reaches 10X it's current production it will still be around 50% of Subaru's production. Over the next decade I think Tesla will become a more and more important player in the car market. Right now they are not even a blip on the radar in overall car sales.�
Oct 8, 2015
Robert.Boston Moderator's Note
I shifted 31 posts from the ST thread over here, which is why some of the posts from today refer to the short-term thread and are trying to bend the subject back to ST prices. Apologies if any violence was done to the thread of the discussion.�
Oct 8, 2015
Papafox It looks like this lady's round trip is about 650 miles, which is a pretty brutal amount of driving to do. How often does she do this trip: once a week, once a month? Granted, the use of superchargers adds time to the route, but she gets her energy for free, which should be considered. Let's say she drives a car that gets 25 miles per gallon. That would be about 26 gallons for the round trip. At $2.00/gallon, she's saving $52 driving a Tesla vs. a 25 mpg car. If she buys her own fuel, that savings might compensate for one extra hour of travel time, depending upon how she values time vs. cost savings.
Please give us an idea how often she does this trip. If it's only once or twice a month, then the extra time for supercharging might be worth it in order to enjoy the Tesla on shorter drives for the remainder of the month.�
Dec 1, 2015
TSLAopt I think the referral program has huge potential to grow demand much faster so that us long term investors can be more assured that Tesla will continue to pump out as many Model S' as it possibly can for years to come. I started the below thread as I'd like for tesla customers participating in the referral program (including me) to share their knowledge with each other of how they have succeeded with it. Some people may have really good and innovative ideas that if shared could help catalyze everyone else's effort and results in the referral program greatly.
Sharing of Referral success stories�
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