Feb 3, 2016
luvnMyTS Over $100 drop in price per share over the past six months. $10 today alone. Seems like more than just a dip in the market. Nearly a 40% drop in 6 months.
Anyone concerned yet?�
Feb 3, 2016
Max* I'm waiting for it to drop further, so I could buy more shares
�
Feb 3, 2016
IFlyPlanes It's not a short term stock. My coworkers and I invest a lot and many of them doubled down this week.
I'm staying for the long haul. I see big things happening and when they open it up to bigger markets with the Model 3 or potentially sell batteries to competitors, you'll probably wish you bought now.�
Feb 3, 2016
P85DEE
Very much so. I've lost a lot of money just today alone......Actually, I'm losing my ass over these last few weeks.�
Feb 3, 2016
AmpedRealtor Yes, I am very, very concerned. I don't drink the Koolaid. I should have sold when I had the chance, but now I'm locked in until it goes back up in a hope to break even.
Tesla's 52 week low did not occur in a vacuum. The perception is out there that Tesla is executing poorly and Tesla has not done anything to change that perception. When you have a communications vacuum, something has to fill that space. So here we are. Who is responsible for Tesla's execution, anyone?�
Feb 3, 2016
P85DEE I was just this morning debating to stay in and waiting for it to go back up.
Long story short, I sold about half of my shares today.
When it hit a new 52week low a day or two ago, I held tight.
But now........ I'm debating selling the rest and absorbing the loss.
Damn if I haven't lost 30% in just a short time.�
Feb 3, 2016
techmaven We have an existing thread for this topic.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016�
Feb 3, 2016
roblab TSLA thankfully is not Tesla. Why should Tesla do anything to change the "perception" for a bunch of gamblers? The stock market is a huge gamble, with several ways to manipulate the "perceptions" of the buyers and sellers.
It seems very common to have someone with a lot of bets down that TSLA will lose money, and then to have a hit piece appear saying things like "Tesla is going to fail", and then all the dummies try to sell off before they lose the house. Or a large sell will happen below the market price and the sheep will follow.
Tesla is not executing badly. The people who develop fear, uncertainty and doubt are happy if they can get your perceptions to drop so they can make a bundle. The stock market is all about people's perceptions, very seldom about Tesla. Tesla is doing well, on several fronts. If a FUDster can get you to believe they are not, they take your money.
Every now and then I read of somebody doing well selling TSLA at a profit, and it always makes me feel sorry for all the other "investors" (meaning gamblers) doing poorly. I wish the short investors would be outlawed or heavily taxed. But like gambling, it gets to be a disease, with "investors" running off to the casino thinking that this time, surely, you're going to win.
If you're long, all this means absolutely nothing. I lose nothing, unless I sell. And I ain't gonna sell until I get a decent profit -- heck, I'm already getting over a thousand percent if I were to sell today.
Stay long. Don't be stupid.�
Feb 3, 2016
sorka I will stop worrying once it drops to a reasonable valuation. It has a long way to go still.�
Feb 3, 2016
Skotty I predict it will jump right back up, it's just a matter of time. Many big firsts still to come relating to the gigafactory, powerwall and powerpack, model 3, etc, that can send the stock skyward. There's always a chance of falling into ruin, but Tesla looks pretty solid right now and has so for some time; they would have a long way to fall before it would be unrecoverable.�
Feb 3, 2016
dakh The only real worry is that we have no clue why the price action has been this way. Or, I should say I have no clue. But then again, it's pretty much expected. Short term valuation can deviate from the fundamentals quite a bit.�
Feb 3, 2016
adiggs Without being as strong on the 'gambling' front as Roblab, my end result is the same. Namely, I haven't lost anything and won't lose anything until I sell. And I haven't seen anything in the last month or two that tells me my investment thesis has changed in the company.
If anything, the low price of oil and corresponding low prices of gas that has some freaking out, looks to me like a potential source of competitive advantage for Tesla and TSLA. To be specific - if Tesla demand and production continues strong in spite of low gas prices, while other EV makes find that their rate of adoption slows, then it tells me they aren't yet creating a competitive product while Tesla is. The competitive advantage comes from the delay in when those organizations go more seriously into EVs and shift to make them their livelihood. It's that much more time where Tesla is growing, building more and more vehicles, and doing so with less and less competition. Or at least, that's one direction that low gas prices could go
I am indifferent to quarterly delivery numbers and extremely interested in quarterly production numbers. Whether a produced car is delivered this quarter or next is a matter of indifference to me, though I realize the stock price can gyrate crazily in response. With a long term perspective (2025+ right now), it just doesn't matter.
I would like to see some free cash flow, but only because the massive capital build that's coming up doesn't scale well unless the stuff being sold can pay for most or all of the capital build. Though I'd like to see some free cash flow, I don't want to see too much - I want to see massive investment into that capital build, and corresponding big increases in capacity to build packs and cars.
End result is that the only thing the current stock price has me wondering about, is whether to add to my current position. This looks to me like the market is being irrational about the price of oil. It may be a few months, and it may take a few years, but at some point, Mr. Market will realize that low oil and energy prices are good for everybody and every segment that isn't in the business producing and providing energy. And then I expect the whole market to negatively correlate with the price of energy, and TSLA to rise strongly with the broader market.�
Feb 3, 2016
luvnMyTS Tesla continues to disappoint. It originally promised 55,000 cars for 2015. Then reduced it to around 52,000, then still fell short of that with just 50,500 cars sold. The Model X being delayed and delayed and delayed and then once finally released, only delivered 208 Model X's in 2015. 3 months and only 208 cars delivered, not good. Then, the news this week that the previously promised reveal of the Model 3 will now only be a photo of PART OF THE CAR. That's a clear indication that they are nowhere near as far along as they thought they were. If they don't have a concept vehicle done yet, there's no way in hell that they're going to production on the car by 2017. For big car makers it's at least two years from concept to production. For Tesla, based on their own history, it's a minimum of three years. Understandable, being that they're a smaller company, but the Model 3 news was disappointing news again out of Tesla. I love the cars, but the company still has a ton of growing pains. We'll be lucky if the Model 3 is in production by 2019. Tesla needs do so something big to show people that it's capable of being more than a niche car company. People were previously betting that they were more than that, but with the Model X and Model 3 news, people simply have lost confidence. I certainly hope they prove all the naysayers wrong. I love this company and their product. With my money tied up in their stock as well, I certainly want to see them succeed big. But something has to change to turn the tide.�
Feb 3, 2016
eloder Yes, being one of the #1 selling luxury models in the US and European markets sure is disappointing.
Anyways, TSLA has gone through such severe and rapid drops for no good reason at all before, and it will continue to do so in the future. This one just happens to have a good amount of macro in it, pushing it further down. Don't invest if you can't stomach it; TSLA has been very rewarding to me and I didn't start my first investments until the stock was in the 170s range.�
Feb 3, 2016
Fallenone Seriously, people are believing this "news" of only pictures of Model 3 for this March? Wake up please.
�
Feb 3, 2016
rdalcanto +1. They will show an entire car. They just won't reveal all the incredible tech it will have 2 years from now. The Bolt will look like it was made in the stone age by comparison. The Model 3 will be on time. Market pressure from the Bolt and others will make sure of that, even though the Model 3 will be so superior that the competitors will look foolish.�
Feb 3, 2016
EV_Future I want to believe you, because the more electric car options the better. But how do you know Model 3 will be so good? Have they already disclosed the technical details or design? I was searching for pictures but there appears to be so many ideas online. Will Tesla have a model soon?�
Feb 3, 2016
dmckinstry Well, I've lost over $70k since Dec. 31st, and compared to many here I'm a small time player. But all my TSLA is in stock, and the loss is only on paper unless I sell. I'm not worried so much as discouraged. It has to drop below $70/share before my holdings will be less than I originally invested. In the mean time I've taken out enough to pay for the Model S I purchased in mid-2013.
Your degree of worry, etc. largely depends on when you started to buy TSLA.�
Feb 3, 2016
Magus I can't believe how much faith people put in stock market valuations and betting. 51-52K of 55K is still solid. The S is outclassing the previous alpha car, the Mercedes S class. Even the oil prices are due to human interventions, OPEC/Saudi Arabia dumping supply into the market to gut shale oil and American production. Low oil prices and dumping like this is not sustainable. The stock market is fickle. No need to worry about Tesla.�
Feb 3, 2016
luvnMyTS Just read an article saying based on earnings, the Tesla stock is more than 90% of what it should be compared with other Tech companies. They mentioned that based on their earnings ratio compared with apple, the stock should be around $17 per share. Based on the S&P 500, it should be around $9 per share. Clearly Tesla stock increased at an extremely rapid rate from $20 to $280 in what, a year, year and a half. It is considered a risky stock and people have been willing to gamble. Myself included.
And I should have known better with my words. of course people would find a way to take it out of context. This is a message board after all. When I said Tesla continues to disappoint, I wasn't at all referring to its product or company practices. I was referring to its financials. It continues to disappoint in the eyes of wall street. Clearly it has an amazing product. But it is a small company that can only build, design and produce so fast. Wall Streets wants them to go faster and they just are not yet capable of that. Customers want them to go faster too. I'm betting 200,000 reservations within the first week for the Model 3 once reservations are available to be made. The question will be, how long will it take for Tesla to fulfill those first 200,000 orders?? It's gonna be a while. Going to say 2022 before the Model 3 is like the Model S, where you can go online and place your order and have your car in 2-3 months. Look at the Model X, they still don't have a design studio for that car, at least not for those that didn't place an advance deposit on the car.
Tesla's stock is so out of whack with typical Wall Street stocks, so it's basically impossible to know what it's going to do. Will it get back to $280 again? What does GM, FORD, BMW, Mercedes, trade at? I think it was either Chase or Morgan Stanley that put the future number of the stock around $90. Now that it's dropped as much as it has, people are going to be more scared of it and less willing to gamble. I don't see it making it back up to that level. Just my two cents. Again, amazing company. I'm only referring to Wall Street in this conversation. Not saying one bad thing about Tesla itself. This was created by the consumers/investors willing to bet big on Tesla. For those that got in early, they're still way ahead and the gamble paid off. For those that sold above $250, they won huge. For those that bought above $200, don't know what to tell you. I don't think anybody knows for sure.�
Feb 3, 2016
rdalcanto Because Tesla doesn't make EVs like Nissan and GM (compliance cars that cost far more than an equivalent ICE). Tesla makes incredible cars that happen to be electric, and blow the doors off similarly priced ICE vehicles. The Model S is the best sedan for the price. The Model X will be an even better SUV, with literally nothing on the planet coming close in terms of performance, low center of gravity and handling, driver tech, etc. The Model 3 is supposed to put the BMW 3 series to shame, so that people buy it regardless of the price of gas. The Bolt and Leaf 2 clearly don't come close to the promise of the 3. After the Model S, the X, Paypal, Space X, Hyperloop, etc., I think Elon can pull of the Model 3 as well....�
Feb 3, 2016
blakegallagher They have had a model(s) for Awhile and they will show one to the public in march.�
Feb 3, 2016
CHG-ON No. Not at all. It takes a strong stomach to ride the Tesla wave. I've been doing it since 2010. It's done great. Also bought in 1-15. Not so great. But cost/avg is very good. I have complete confidence that this is the next Microsoft, Google Apple. It needs to be and they have the vision more than anybody else.�
Feb 3, 2016
Yggdrasill I am worried. Not about the company, of course, but about how irrational the markets have been and continue to be. Tesla has dropped 30% on approximately zero news in a month. That is insane.
As far as I can tell, the shorts have no compelling arguments, so I have to trust in reason and keep buying.�
Feb 4, 2016
deonb You can't compare that.
If Tesla grows to 10 times its current production it's still a nobody in the auto industry.
If it grows to 100 times it won't break into the top 5.
Even at 1000 times its size it's still not a monopoly.
It Apple grows to even 3 times it's size it needs to find a new planet to sell products on.�
Feb 4, 2016
Gerardf
Agree. It is not nice to see the current SP so much lower, but to many positives just around the corner. Have just freed up some cash and plan to increase my shares.�
Feb 4, 2016
motobaleno �
Feb 4, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Resolve the X soon and stock will stabilize. Don't resolve the X soon and TSLA will continue to fall until it's next to nothing as Tesla dies.
So yes, you should be worried. But you should always have been worried, because Tesla is a boom or bust company.�
Feb 4, 2016
Adm Something I miss in the discussion is a comparison with other auto stocks. Over the past 12 months TSLA performs about the same as GM and much better than F. The insanity was the spike at $282, dropping to $170 is just a healthy correction. Tesla still has a lot to prove for this stock to go up and forward again. We, the kool aid drinkers, may believe it should, but outsiders rightfully are more conservative.
�
Feb 4, 2016
Yggdrasill I don't see why TSLA should at all track the other auto companies. Tesla is supply limited probably through 2017, even if the Model 3 doesn't materialize. And if the Model 3 starts selling in 2017, they'll probably be supply limited through 2020.
General market trends really don't matter to the company, beyond what dilution they have to accept in financing rounds.�
Feb 4, 2016
Adm You are right, it shouldn't and yet it does. Rationality and stock prices are not a good combo.�
Feb 4, 2016
Magus Uh, the X is well on its way in terms of production. The S is very strong, beating the S class and other high end cars' numbers combined. The X has way more demand than Tesla can supply. Production is ramping and there is no indication of slowing down production, only increasing. All of the reviews are raving despite any flaws that have come up. The owners who have had flaws are universally saying they love their vehicle and are happy with them despite issues that have come. We also have no idea how extensive the flaws are, just that they are generally expected to be more given initial production. Model S quality and fit and finish have steadily improved. My S's comfort, fit and finish are superior to the venerable Mercedes E class. So what if the S class has more luxury features and options- the S has better performance for a lower cost. The luxury will improve in time regardless.
Model 3 is getting revealed in March. Gigafactory in some respects is further along than anticipated. There are rumors of a new Powerwall iteration. Powerwall demand exceeds supply and now Tesla is starting to deliver on Powerwall. As far as Tesla is making it, there is no reason to worry. As far as meeting Wall Street expectations, I suppose one may worry. So what if Tesla is producing 250k cars in 2020 instead of 500k. The automakers are struggling to stay out of complacency, and Tesla has really exposed significant vulnerabilities that they are trying to address.�
Feb 4, 2016
ecarfan So you have never seen an X in real life and are basing your opinion from photos? That is absurd. I have seen a very early production X up close for an extended period of time, inside and out. I found no flaws. None.
You can pass judgement on the quality of the X when you have actually seen one.�
Feb 4, 2016
neroden Concerned?
I was concerned a few months ago when Tesla pulled a bait-and-switch on Ranger services. The fundamentals have not changed since then, only the price has. I would not criticize anyone who decided to sell (for sane reasons); there's a strong bear case based on communications problems. I would not criticize anyone who decided to buy (for sane reasons); there's a strong bull case based on having no serious competition in most of their market segments.
You have to balance these factors for yourself, and the price change should not change your assessment. You should have a "buy" price and a "sell" price based on your assessment of fundamentals.
- - - Updated - - -
The first reveal of the Model S didn't have an interior. The interior was slapped together *very* late, less than a year before delivery IIRC. If something similar is going on, that would certainly account for the incomplete reveal.
I strongly suspect that Tesla is actually pretty far along. The plan was always to start Model 3 design once the Model S was shipping, and I really assume that Model 3 development started while Model X was being developed. The paint shop was designed for it, the new component factory appears to be intended for it, the redesign of the production lines seems to be preparing for it, the Gigafactory is getting ready for it... you don't do that without being a large portion of the way through design.
- - - Updated - - -
Yeah, isn't that interesting? I think Tesla is honestly being more secretive than they were with the Model S. I also think this is probably a bad idea, but I can think of some reasons for it (maybe Tesla is expecting to change the available options and wants to do that *before* releasing the design studio to the public... the repeated option availability changes on Model S irritated people).�
Feb 4, 2016
ludicrousspeed As a super bullish long-term (10+years) investor in Tesla, I thought now would be a good time to map out where I think the company should be in the next 5-6 years. I think this is the perfect time to do this because I'm able to make much more conservative projections with the sentiment turning the way it has. Anybody who is seriously worried about the recent and unjustified cliff that the stock seems to have fallen off of should analyze this and see if they think it is realistic.
I attached a model that projects out just GAAP REVENUES through 2021 (did not include costs because I think that is significantly harder to predict accurately.) In the grey are my assumptions.. I just want to note that I strongly believe Tesla will eventually sell 500K vehicles per year, however, I think it will come after the year 2020. I've studied Musk for a while and have full confidence in his predictions, just not necessarily the timing of these predictions. Same goes with M3.. I think they may meet the 2017 deadline but will not delivery significant volume by then, so I assumed the first impact will be felt in 2018. The Tesla Energy GWH sold each year is a super rough estimate, but is based on exponential growth leading up to 35 GWH of energy storage that Tesla should get out of the GF by 2020. The energy revenues are based on a conversion rate of 1 KWH = 1M GWH, $250/kwh for the powerpack, and $350/kwh for the powerwall. 10% of annual revenues for each of those two products is then deducted to be even more conservative.
All in all, Tesla will probably not make huge profits over this time period but will begin to show their earnings potential through massive revenue growth and market penetration (just look at AMZN - $250B market cap without any real earnings, just potential based on growth.) This is a very conservative model in my opinion and ignores any other potential revenue sources like car servicing, ride sharing, mapping software, partnerships, etc. I then predict that the following 5 years after this will experience very similar growth (mainly through energy storage - Elon thinks it will bring in 2x auto revenue long term), something that the market simply cannot factor into valuations at this point. Growing the energy storage business rapidly and possibly pulling in revenue from streams that we can't currently think of should realize over $200B in revenues by around 2025. So to answer your question.. no I'm not worried.
�
Feb 4, 2016
Zythryn For the long term, not worried in the slightest.
For the short term measured in days or weeks, very worried.
I'm in this for the long term. If I weren't building a new house I would be buying TSLA. I typically buy things when they are on sale�
Feb 4, 2016
lango Nice table! I think I would put TE revenue and Model 3 revenue a bit lower and X and S production/revenue higher. I think they will reach 200k for those in total in 2019. One reason to put TE and 3 lower is that the uncertainties are higher witch means a lower probability factor.�
Feb 4, 2016
motobaleno
as far as finishings (and only finishings) are concerned, you can not assess how good a car is from photos (since obviously small flaws may be not detected from photos) but IMHO it is obvious (mathematically obvious I would say) that you can perfectly assess how bad a car is,since photos tend to mask imperfections so, if you can still see them from photos...
sorry for my english. It is not my language.�
Feb 4, 2016
AmpedRealtor Expressing concern over the stock price = FUD agenda? Come on, you aren't that insecure are you? lol�
Feb 4, 2016
eloder The good news is though, is that one day a lot of analysts are going to wake up and finally realize that TSLA is not just a car company--and that Tesla Energy probably has far more potential than Tesla Motors could ever dream of. I think it'll just take one spectacular ER on Tesla Energy, coupled with some equally impressive forward-thinking Tesla Energy statements.�
Feb 4, 2016
larmor Or the analysts will go to costco to get their AA and AAA batteries and compare to GF. They don't need any C or Ds...
�
Feb 4, 2016
Krugerrand *yawn* Wake me up when there's something interesting and new going on.�
Feb 5, 2016
AmpedRealtor Another 6% down this morning. I think I'm out.�
Feb 5, 2016
roblab As some of you older posters here remember, about three years ago we had a fellow on this forum who decided he really wanted a Model S, so he put everything he could into some TSLA stock. I could tell you his name; he's still here.
His daily post was, "Oh, no, it's down! What are we going to do? I should never have bought stock. I'll never get my car."
Time after time people would talk him down, encourage, reassure that the stock would go up. After a while, they were telling him to stop posting, stop looking, just plain, "Quit it!" Hold on to what you have but quit watching. Some people can't watch. It's just not their personality type.
Short story longer, a year or two later, the stock shot up. He made big bucks on his long position, and ... he bought a Model S on the profits. A very happy man. I see him every now and then. I think he likes his S. I don't think he's doing much in TSLA, though.
If you leave now, Amped, you lose. Just shut your eyes, pretend you have amnesia for a year. It will get better. When you wake up, it will be all better.
By the bye, do you ever get over to see Rolf and Martina Lohr?�
Feb 5, 2016
eye.surgeon If you're 68 or older and living on the returns, maybe a smart move since you shouldn't be in stocks anyways. Otherwise, hold it, and for goodness sake stop checking the price daily. Check it once a year or so. Investing is a long game played in decades, not weeks.�
Feb 5, 2016
mitch672 The stock price is being pushed down by greedy shorts, most of whom have never had anything good to say about TSLA, or Tesla, most of whom push their vitriol on "Seeking Mediocrity", which is mostly a bear site at this point, they have also been burned on the way up. Many of them come here to try and convince us the sky is falling, don't believe it for a second. Selling out at below the 52 week low is not a smart decision, and is panic selling.. Unless you need the money short term, your better off weathering the storm, or buying more. I have been in this stock for over 4 years now, I've seen it all, as I said "nothing to see here, move along you looky louies"�
Feb 5, 2016
qwk I think the writing was on the wall when Jerome cashed himself out, and left the company. Anytime somebody that is that competent suddenly leaves without explanation, there is a problem.�
Feb 5, 2016
AmpedRealtor ^^ THIS. I tend to agree. Deepak Ahuja also retired in the same time frame so you have to ask yourself why is that. They saw something coming.�
Feb 5, 2016
AudubonB Moderator Note:
Some posts disparaging the OP for bringing up this subject removed to Snippiness.
I think I'll re-invent my Forum handle to "Lord Vetinari". Or maybe my sub-tag.�
Feb 5, 2016
aznt1217 I need this discipline of not looking... it's hard for me�
Feb 5, 2016
eye.surgeon A touch paranoid. TSLA is subject to market forces. There is no vast conspiracy to gerrymander the stock. Greed drives all market decisions and is the engine of the stock market. It's a good thing.�
Feb 5, 2016
dirkhh I tend to agree. It's interesting that his LinkedIn page still lists "on sabbatical until January 2016". But it seems obvious that he isn't coming back and that's a bad sign.�
Feb 5, 2016
aznt1217 Is it though? It's not like his position isn't filled lol�
Feb 5, 2016
dirkhh True. And the replacement is doing an excellent job, isn't he. No complaints about quality issues, delays in getting service appointment, issues with deliveries. Right?�
Feb 5, 2016
AmpedRealtor Jerome's position as VP of Sales & Marketing has been filled, but not his role as customer advocate and the guy who "makes things right" at Tesla for owners who are banging their heads against the wall with certain service issues. That role has not been filled, and arguably, is a role that Tesla very much needs judging by some of the sentiment in the fora. But this is a stock thread...�
Feb 5, 2016
DriverOne The entire market is down. Most stocks are down from their highs of a few months ago. TSLA isn't alone, and it isn't a reflection on how well Tesla is doing. A rising tide lifts all boats, we are now seeing the tide recede.
Every time the stock went down in the past, people panicked and sold. When the stock rose, suddenly those low times looked like opportunities.�
Feb 5, 2016
R3D-83 Guys! Have you seen the last video on Seeking Alpha about TM. It's starring Bob Lutz (I know...), but what he says makes sense (in my opinion) and it's really not good! I would like to know what you think about that!
I can't give a link to it, since the system filters out my comments, and the moderators don't enable them. But you can find it easily: On the Seeking Alpha search for TSLA, and it's the last one on the video tab (at least now). The title is: "Tesla's business model 'upside-down': Bob Lutz".
- - - Updated - - -
Or you can find it on CNBC's site too.�
Feb 5, 2016
aznt1217 How does it make sense to you? Let's flesh it out.... his whole premise of why Tesla will fail is coming from two ends:
The Top Line: Tesla will not be able to sell electric cars because other OEM's HAVE to make money losing electric cars so that they can sell the customer big gas cars because that's what the customer wants. My counter point is, with that logic that means the other OEMs will make the electric cars just for regulatory purposes and have them sit on the lot (NOT A SALE) because customers will buy the more compelling gas vehicles. Sorry, but I'm not with stupid here.
The Bottom Line: Tesla's stores and "Dealership" network is capitally intensive. No it's absolutely not. The only thing that needs to be watched out for is SG&A. There's no middle man or third party reporting required for inefficiency. Everything is build to order. Commissions are negligible as well and it leads to a very lean manufacturing process for efficiency in the bottom line at the parent company level. Sorry buddy, the GM layer cake doesn't work and it never worked for GM hence why they went bankrupt so many times.
Overall, don't believe the hype downwards or too exuberantly upwards. These arguments were made in 2012, and it's now 2016. What compelling electric cars high price or low do you see on the roads right now? I'm livid watching that video so I'll stop it here.�
Feb 5, 2016
Todd Burch To answer the OP's question: No. No change in Tesla's fundamentals warrants the drop in price.
Not concerned. 6 months from now we'll be looking at all time highs and laughing at this moment.�
Feb 5, 2016
lango I am a bit worried about Model X ramp, although I know the chance of it being totally under control is over 90%. But still, it worries me. I am only worried about the stock as a function of Model X, so if Model X is fine then the stock will be too.�
Feb 5, 2016
anticitizen13.7 I'm not worried. I will hold on to my shares until Model 3 and Tesla Energy production is in full swing, or the company sinks. I am fully prepared to see my entire investment in TSLA crater.
When I first bought shares in TSLA years ago, Model S wasn't even in production. I made my investment knowing that TSLA had a chance of going to 0 (zero), and also knowing that the money I spent was NOT part of my retirement plan or money I would need for upcoming or emergency expenses. It was purely a gamble on what I saw as potentially revolutionary automotive technology.
Sure, it could all go to hell, but I would have bigger regrets if I never participated or took a chance.
I have tried over the past few years (perhaps in vain) to educate people here at TMC about stock market psychology and why peoples' impulses usually do not serve their long-term interests. I would guess that the majority of humans do not have the temperament to resist the "Buy High, sell low" trap, and therefore become prey for algobots and professional traders.
I would further state, and perhaps controversially so, that most people have no business buying shares in TSLA, based on what I've been seeing over the past month. When people are risking cash positions that they need for other things by buying TSLA, or stuffing their retirement portfolios with TSLA, it is a recipe for disaster. I've seen stuff like this play out in 2000 and again in 2008. It rarely ends well.
Broad market stock index and bond index funds should be the basis for most retirement accounts because they have low management cost, less volatile than individual issues, and usually have policies designed to limit large outflows based on impulse. All of my tax-advantaged retirement accounts are in Index Funds. I re-balance them once each year to keep my bond allocation at my age. For the vast majority of people, buying individual stocks like TSLA should be with extra money that isn't needed for something else.�
Feb 5, 2016
ludicrousspeed There's no reason to worry, as long as your have the proper time horizon. Nobody should be trading Tesla short-term, but rather investing long-term.
Short Term
I simply cannot see how sentiment can get any worse. From articles claiming that Tesla is "the worst stock in the world" to various back-to-back downgrades without any fundamental changes, expectations have subsided dramatically. Even with these downgrades and historically negative ratings from the major banks, Tesla's current price sits above EVERYBODY'S price target. I normally don't put much, if any, weight on analyst opinions, but this can only be a good sign. Of the 15 major firms with coverage on Tesla, the lowest price target is $180 from BoA. The average PT is $276 and the median PT is $282. This suggests an AVERAGE upside of almost 70%. Again, I'm not saying to listen to analysts (who imo often manipulate stock prices) and encourage independent research.
Short interest should be reported soon as of Jan. 31 and is almost certainly going to be north of 30M shares (almost 10 full trading days worth.) Instead of covering and taking profits, shorts have been adding to their positions, which adds fuel to any fire that will result from positive surprises. If this downward price action was happening as short interest decreased, it'd be much more worrisome. Instead, we have a series of positive catalysts that are bound to play out in 2016, which include 3 material revenue streams (S, X, energy products - as opposed to just one that the market is accustomed to), M3 reveal and reservation intake, opening of the GF, and (most likely) multiple positive cash flow quarters.
Long Term
I can go on forever about how Tesla will be successful long term, but a nice summary can be found on Are we worried yet about Tesla Stock? - Page 4 of this thread, where I showed how Tesla can get to over $27B in revenues by 2020, even if they only sell 300K vehicles. Just based on significantly higher margins and astronomically higher growth than their competitors, I strongly feel that Tesla will demand a P/S ratio of at least 3x sales throughout this time period. This suggests that the market cap will appreciate more than 270% over this relatively short time frame. Despite the negative sentiment recently, nothing has really changed from their ultimate long-term plan. If you are truly long on the stock, now is the perfect buying opportunity, right when others are "worried."�
Feb 5, 2016
tes-s Not worried. And agree TSLA is not Tesla.
Tesla sold a bunch of TSLA in an offering last year, right - at about $240 a share? Smart. Elon bought at least $20M of that offering...�
Feb 5, 2016
Fallenone The thing worries me most is the lower the price of the stock TSLA, the harder for Tesla the company to raise additional cash to accelerate mass production of Model 3. Clearly, there's huge amount of CapEx ahead for Model 3 and with what Tesla can invest from its own operations, I just don't see it possible for them to go 500k a year in 2020 without a major equity/debt raise.�
Feb 5, 2016
sundaymorning Tesla doesn't need to raise capital immediately. They can do it in increments as X ramps up and buyers flock back to the stock. Don't forget about stationary storage, once that heats up, more buyers will line up. We're not looking to produce 500k off the bat. They can raise in increments. As far as additional funding goes, that is what S and now X is for.�
Feb 5, 2016
Fallenone I agree they don't need to raise 5 billion for one offering, but still, lower the price of stock, harder the raise will be, incremental or not. And the harder the raise, the lower the expectation, which feeds back to lower the price of stock.
�
Feb 5, 2016
sundaymorning Naturally they don't want the stock to low for a raise, so let's wait until a bounce and TSLA can think about it. As of right now they are within striking distance of fcf, so what's the problem? The gigafactory is all but paid for.. S demand is still high and X is going to get fixed.
�
Feb 5, 2016
lango I don't think Model 3 is at the stage yet were they need to spend loads on Capex. Maybe at the end of 2016, so they still have some quarters were they don't need to raise equity and can still keep their pace.
Few engineering, design and planning problems are accelerated by throwing money at them. Let' not forget that they can produce 1000 X per week and sell them for $140k very soon if all goes well.�
Feb 5, 2016
Fallenone gigafactory phase 1, which is 14% of the gigafactory that was designed to support 500k deliveries in 2020, is all but paid for. There's still quite a lot of capex need for it in the coming years. Sure it can be spread out but sooner or later, Tesla needs to pay for it.�
Feb 5, 2016
chargeshare I am not yet concerned.�
Feb 5, 2016
sundaymorning Conservatively speaking if Tesla sells 75k S and X combined without delivering a single Powerwall/pack at ASP of $100k that is about $7.5 billion in revenues for 2016 alone. I'm sure the stock will reflect this in the future and they'll find backers with a heavy model 3 line and 40% growth yoy. To answer this thread's question, not a bit worried
�
Feb 5, 2016
TaoJones The earnings calls this year (and subsequent spin) should be interesting.
Jerome leaving was and remains a Very Bad Thing for owners, and as an investor, it's a concern, certainly, right up there with the communications failures and variable service experiences.
On the flip side, would you rather drive anything else? Not that that fixes the fundamentals, but still, it does correlate to strong demand. Viewing Tesla as a global battery company with all kinds of levers yet to pull does help soften the short term pain a tad, too.
Long term (5+ year view) looks strong for Tesla and Panasonic. Short term is going to be painful, but it's not all Tesla's fault by any stretch. Woke up this morning to CNBC predictions of a "Global Economic Death Spiral". Lovely.
Besides, if things really go south, it just means we'll own more AAPL or GOOG after the conversion�
Feb 5, 2016
Chickenlittle Best excuse for stock dropping....Jerome leaving. Very funny. Should put smiley face in�
Feb 5, 2016
Jamriman I can't believe people sell when a stock drops. Time to buy not sell. Forget about it. That's my philosophy & I never lost, always gain long term.�
Feb 5, 2016
Fallenone We all know revenue is growing and that's great. But the bears do have one point right, the operating margins for Tesla is not high, actually negative for the most time so far. In a bull market, that's fine. In a bear market, it's hard to persuade others lend you money/buy your stock. I'm confident they will cut down cost and increase revenue at the same time this year. But not confident that alone could cover all the capex till 2020.
�
Feb 5, 2016
sundaymorning Of course Tesla is operating at a negative, their growth trajectory is too high. If they stopped growing and only produce S and X they will be profitable. But I would rather them spend every dime and borrow as much as they can to grow even faster. I think it's a given that Tesla needs to raise more capital, but now is perhaps not the right now. Prove to the bankers X can ramp and nicely and lenders will be a dime a dozen. 40% growth year over year with M3 coming at 35k plus is no joke. And your right, the market can spin more negative headlines, but just how many people will listen to that BS when prices are this insatiable is to be debated. Let me ask you this, if Elon guides for 72-75k and tells you X is ramping up nicely by mid February would that convince you? What if he mentions that Powerwall and Powerpack will be delivered 1st Q along with M3 reveal being on time? I can't see the market reacting badly to that... but I've been wrong before.
�
Feb 5, 2016
eye.surgeon Exactly this, fellow boglehead.�
Feb 5, 2016
Fallenone I totally agree a raise of capital now is not the best time. Too much dilution at this price. Best wait till summer after some good and solid news on X ramp, battery, gigafactory, model 3, potential FCF positive, oversea partners.
As we are discussing in the other thread, I do think a guidance of 75k for 2016 is bad. For your other points, I agree.
�
Feb 7, 2016
Cobbler 8 years ago, AAPL shares were crashing. A lot of investors were overreacting and even began to wonder if this could mean a neverending down-story for the AAPL stock. Even Steve Jobs had to re-assure his own personell that Apple had a lot of exciting products yet to release and there was not really something to worry about. He advised everyone to buy more stock!
This whole situation with the TSLA stock reminded me of that. Just relax, hold on tight and enjoy the bumpy ride�
Feb 8, 2016
bonaire Every time a stock goes down, one must pull out the AAPL story. I tell my son when he fails a test in school that "look at Jimmy in Aisle #2 - he got an A and so will you".�
Feb 8, 2016
tray loader As for me I�m worried.
The loose ends dating back to mid 2015 make sense in a very bad way.
Has nothing to do with shorts IMHO, they only function as a catalyst.�
Feb 8, 2016
AmpedRealtor Well, here's the 1-year:
Here's the 5-year:
It's kind of difficult not to see that something significant is happening.�
Feb 8, 2016
ev-enthusiast Short term: yes.
Long term: no.�
Feb 8, 2016
TheTalkingMule There's a temporary global liquidity shortage? Low prices are buying opportunities when dealing with a relatively sure thing.�
Feb 8, 2016
luvnMyTS Ouch, another 10% today. $147 now. $280 less than a year ago. Almost 50%. Disappointed I didn't get out at $280 or $260 or $240 or $220 or $200, but happy I bailed at $180. Will get back in at some point. The stock market is going down in general, but Tesla is a risky stock and those get hit harder in a down market. Tesla needed a correction beyond the regular market. Once it finds it settling point, I'll jump back in. Love the company and the outlook and the future, but the stock price really made no logical sense when comparing it how the rest of the market is. Made a little on it since I bought below $180. Will be interesting to see what happens.�
Feb 9, 2016
tmac Yes concerned it will pop up higher before I get around to buying more! Autopilot, SC network are unique to Tesla. They have a huge headstart on other EV so will enjoy being "the Cadillac" or perhaps the "BMW"of EV world for a few years.�
Feb 9, 2016
R3D-83 Autopilot? I just mentioned in an other tread, BMW's new 7 series knows Tesla's all AP tricks except auto lane change, but it's not a big deal to catch up with that. Same story with MB's new E class or Audi etc. Autopilot isn't gonna be a crucial feature in the future. All major automakers are developing it on full power.
The SC network is a good selling point now, but if governments, energy companies, etc. will build their own fast charging network and it will be cheap (they might be even free at some location), then it loses it's charm as well.�
Feb 9, 2016
tmac
I know I'm preaching to the choir here.......
Autopilot:
Of course others have started, my impression is that the Tesla autopilot is unique in that your Tesla driving down my road learns about lane shift and feeds it to mothership then back to my car so my car does not have to learn all by itself . Recent review compared MB BMW TESLA ability to AP navigate highway ,rural, city roads. Guess who crushed it?
Supercharging:
'But if' governments, energy, that is a long shot that's a mighty big if.
In contrast TeslaSC is done. Sure we need some in PA, South Midwest and Downeast .. But it is a fait accompli.�
Feb 10, 2016
Spidy You have to test your engineering designs and validate them. That requires a lot of money as you need a lot of prototype parts to come to a solid result.�
Feb 10, 2016
Quant I will double up ( and I'm not talking just a few hundred shares) if the price falls to the low $100's. Have not sold a single share !�
Feb 10, 2016
R3D-83 Listen! I don't want to start a purblind "Tesla vs. anything" kind of fight! All I wanted to point out is that, the autopilot is not unique to Tesla. Yes, one of them is always better than the others, but there are no big differences between them. Actually I (being a kind of geek) find Tesla's solution fascinating too! But we are just a small bunch of nerds in the big world whom are interested in tech details. But think out of the box. Try to imagine if you were an average potential buyer out there. Were you interested in tech details? NO! What an average guy cares about is like "Does it have AP? It does! Is it usable? It is!" That all they care, nothing more. And this is true for all. So from an investment standpoint (since this is an investment thread) we can't say the AP is a big selling point of Tesla and this is the savior technology of the company. We can't rely on that! This was the point of my first reply.
Ohh... And just one more thought for supercharging:
I don't know what is the progress in this field in the US, but in the EU it has already started. The 150kW version of the European standard DC plug (Combo2) was already shown and it's being standardized. The local electric company already has some free charging stations in the area. They are just 25 (Type2) or 50 kW (Combo2) chargers at the moment, but they can be easily upgraded to 150 kW after the new standard will be accepted. And I've read the EU parlament (in partnership with other 3rd party companies) is intended to build a fast charging network along the highways. Or just have a look at this EV charger map of Europe and imagine what would be if just 1/10 of them were upgraded to the upcoming 150 kW standard.
So yes, it's still an 'if', but it's a very possible if, rather than a 'big mighty if'. And you're true, the Tesla SC is already done. But from an investment standpoint (again) we're speaking about the future, right?�
Feb 12, 2016
dakh As to AP the question is with other companies who's making money on it? With Tesla I'm going to go on a limb and say they'll be making quite a handy profit from AP since they have a substantial portion of the solution in-house. And looks like they might be on their way to having a full end to end implementation in house as well. Not so much with others, since like it's been said before they're just making the engine, shell and assemble. MBLY, Bosch etc. are the ones who stand to profit from the rest of AP installs.�
Mar 4, 2016
Cobbler So.... Are we still worried?�
Mar 4, 2016
Familial Rhino Andrew Left might be.�
Mar 21, 2016
Cobbler Hahahaha�
Mar 21, 2016
TheTalkingMule I'm relatively new to active investing, but can't seem to grasp why people don't embrace coordinated shorting as a buying opportunity. Why would you not want periodic artificial dips in share price based entirely on lies? When else would you be able to buy at bargain prices?�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét