Aug 2, 2016
DaveT I'll be interviewing Andrea James (former TSLA analyst) via Google Hangouts. Feel free to check it out live or you can view the recorded version afterwards. Also, would love to hear if you have any questions you'd like to ask Andrea. Just reply to this thread if you've got any ideas/questions.
Here's the info for the upcoming interview w/Andrea James.
Date: August 8, 2016
Time: 1pm PT
Video link: Andrea James (former TSLA analyst) interview by DaveT - Google+
A few words about Andrea James:
Andrea James was Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Dougherty & Company from 2010-2016. She was best known for being a sharp analyst covering Tesla who understood the potential Tesla had as a company from early on. In this Google Hangout interview, DaveT (editor of teslaweekly.com) discusses with Andrea what life was like as a TSLA analyst and her current view of Tesla. Join us LIVE.
From Andrea's blog (Why I won�t be on the Tesla call tonight | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching): "Being a Wall Street stock analyst on Tesla Motors (TSLA) shares from 2010 to 2016 has greatly enriched my life and understanding of the world. I took pride in the depth of my analysis and research � I always started from a position of skepticism and asking, �Where could Tesla go wrong?� But early on, it became clear that the bigger question � the world changing one � was, �Where could Tesla go right?� My firm gave me the opportunity to call the truth on Tesla as I see it. And we get to that truth by analyzing the following three questions, at their simplest: Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?""
Questions so far:
MitchJi - "I'd like to know if part of the reason she changed jobs is because (she mentioned that she could now start investing in TSLA) is because she thinks she's going to be able to make close to as much or more by being able to invest in TSLA."
AustinEV:
1) How do you feel about Elon's SMP2? It includes sweeping projections of overhauling huge industries.
2) Is Tesla at risk of overreaching?
3) Assuming that the model 3 launch happens roughly according to plan, what if any revaluation do you expect the market to give TSLA? Do you think skepticism will rule all the way to model 3 contributing to financials?
4) How do you value Tesla Energy?
5) How do you envision the capital plan? Tesla will need new car factories. How do you see the timing of factories and capital raises?�
Aug 2, 2016
Mario Kadastik Ask her if she could share some of her prior models for estimating tsla and maybe some of her analysis noteswould love to read them.
Also, her take on SCTY and merger�
Aug 2, 2016
30seconds How are other auto companies ensuring battery supply will be available for them in 2019-2020 when we have been told to expect EVs from almost all manufacturers?�
Aug 2, 2016
Fallenone In light of the massive reservation number, and increased production rate, how much leverage do you think Tesla now has over suppliers to lower the cost of parts that goes into COGS in the short term (before Model 3 mass production)?�
Aug 4, 2016
Crowded Mind I would like to hear her take on the possibility of a short squeeze being caused by share recalls to vote on the SCTY merger, as well as her take on TSLA energy and any analysis she may have done on that side of the business.
Thanks again for organizing, Dave. This is really awesome.�
Aug 5, 2016
Jroper Considering Elon mentioned on the Q2 call that Tesla�s growth is about 100% and, without M3 CAPEX, the company would already be profitable. How can we value Tesla�s growth?�
Aug 5, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney SMP2 was pretty sweeping. Is there anything big for Tesla Motors not in there?
Have Tesla's implementation failures, particularly with the X given you pause as to its ability to deliver a successful Model 3 or integrated solar battery product?�
Aug 5, 2016
Cosmacelf vis a vis your new job as an executive coach, what management mistakes and/or positive innovations do you see Tesla doing right now? The reason I ask is that from the outside looking in, it looks like Elon has not delegated enough decision making, and is continuing to be involved in many aspects of the company's operation which can lead to paralysis as people are always wondering if they'll be overruled by Elon. The Model X problems, both from a design perspective and manufacturing execution seem to be symptoms of management problems.�
Aug 5, 2016
DaveT What were your go-to sources in getting information and news about Tesla?
As an analyst were you able to visit the factory any time you wanted? Were analysts invited to any special events besides analyst conference calls?
While you were an analyst how many times did you test drive the car, and what kind of impact did that have on your view of Tesla?�
Aug 5, 2016
aznt1217 Dave I'm fairly certain I can answer the last one for you. She has only driven the Model X. I repeat, only driven the Model X. I'm basing this on her Youtube channel video of her test drive.�
Aug 5, 2016
ggies07 I got the same feeling from watching the video as well. Crazy she never test drove one of the earlier Model S�
Aug 5, 2016
GoTslaGo Maybe she wanted to remain unbiased about the drive quality to be a good analyst. IIRC, Didn't she change jobs after driving the X, or do I have my facts wrong again?�
Aug 7, 2016
austinEV A new question: Will you go out on a date with Austin EV?�
Aug 7, 2016
AudubonB From Audubon:
"Once upon a not so very long time ago, Wall St analysts grouped themselves by the sectors they covered into what were called splinter groups. Were you a member of the Automotive Analysts' Splinter Group and if so, how did your colleagues treat you in your being a champion of Tesla Motors? Did you ever get the impression any of your colleagues had a mindset along the lines of "Well, if only I weren't beholden to {F / GM / NSANY etc } I might portray TSLA in a different light."? Can you envision some kind of a sea change in their collective attitudes and if so, what might be the proximal cause/s?"�
Aug 8, 2016
aznt1217 Would like to know her opinion as to why Tesla is so divisive among Wall Street Analysts and the media in general.�
Aug 8, 2016
JRP3 Is that really a mystery?�
Aug 8, 2016
GoTslaGo I'm rooting for you!�
Aug 8, 2016
DaveT Call for final questions before the interview. Can't promise I'll ask all of them but will definitely consider.�
Aug 8, 2016
Ocelot In my opinion a good analyst would do the exact opposite. I was shocked to see her reaction (presuming of course she had already driven an X or S , or at the very least was intimately knowledgeable about the vehicle). I do realize however that this was also part of my anive assumption that people would be familiar with things they invest in/talk about. I know she has a lot of fans around these parts, but I feel that is because she has been/was/is very Pro-Tesla. I am not sure if she has called any other companies correctly, or what her overall ROI is. In my humble opinion, "analysts: all have some type of slant..where their own interests are first, and their clients...well somewhere down the line, or not even on the line (ie. 2008). That's why I come here!�
Aug 8, 2016
SteveG3 some Tesla "news" effects not only investors but consumers. there have been repeated incidents where an event leads to an avalanche of misreporting, and a Tesla/Elon response leads to a second avalanche of misreporting the response (none of it flattering to Tesla). if Elon were listening to this interview, would you have any suggestions as to how Tesla can reduce the risk of material damage to the brand based on rampant incorrect inaccurate stories in the media?�
Aug 8, 2016
RobStark Her husband might have a small issue with that?�
Aug 8, 2016
daxz How did the online forums influence your analysis of TSLA or other stocks?�
Aug 8, 2016
Cosmacelf Has it started yet? Haven't seen the video start yet...�
Aug 8, 2016
Cosmacelf She just said on the live feed that she test drove a Roadster in early days...�
Aug 8, 2016
surfside I've never joined one of these live, but I can't seem to figure out how to get it to work either...
Some help would be appreciated if it is already live...�
Aug 8, 2016
Cosmacelf It is live. It just started for me out of the blue. Keep trying.
BTW, she also test drove a Model S early. The fast acceleration actually induced her labor that night, no lie.�
Aug 8, 2016
tlo Awesome! Thanks for doing this, Andrea and Dave!�
Aug 8, 2016
techmaven Wow, that was great! Thanks so much to Dave for setting this up and to Andrea James for giving us the time and letting us peak behind the curtain.
I must say, as a retail investor, it does feel like we don't quite get the same access. For example, I've never gotten any response from Tesla IR.
I would definitely sign up for an Andrea James TSLA newsletter.�
Aug 8, 2016
Fallenone Thanks for organizing this Dave!�
Aug 8, 2016
mrdoubleb This was awesome Dave, thanks for making this happen! We always knew she was super smart, but learning she has an econ/physics background and understanding the depth of her research with those fascinating details (calling the bar accross the street from the factory LOL) really explains a lot.�
Aug 8, 2016
surfside I'm going to need to get a tutorial on how to get these hang outs to work live. Lol. Feeling super technologically challenged here.
DaveT, could you post the chat as a YouTube similar to what you did for the Q2 earnings discussion?
EDIT: just checked your YouTube channel and saw it is already posted. Thanks Dave!�
Aug 8, 2016
fallen888 Any chance to get a transcript of the interview?�
Aug 8, 2016
Cosmacelf Could you post a link to the YouTube video? Thanks.�
Aug 8, 2016
MitchJi I finally got it to work by installing Chrome (worked immediately) on our Mac.
We definitely don't get the same access. I sent the following email last year to Tesla IR (Ron Baron visits 3 or 4 times per year):
�
Aug 8, 2016
SteveG3 thanks Dave and Andrea, that was entertaining, and very very interesting.
great job by Dave, and Andrea, it was really generous and helpful of you to share your well studied front seat perspective on Tesla�
Aug 8, 2016
austinEV Piling on to say great talk! Thanks to Dave to setting it up and to Andrea for offering her time. I watched it delayed so couldn't vote/comment live.
The thing I got out of it is I want her spreadsheet.... Surely she isn't using it any more? Maybe dumbed down. Honestly, if you look at us and our "crowdsourcing" we have gotten lax on the actual modeling. I think it would be neat if we had an official model that we all worked from and debated the inputs and assumptions.
Dave, sweet talk her maybe?�
Aug 8, 2016
tinm Missed this but hoping to watch tonight. Is there a YouTube video?�
Aug 8, 2016
techmaven My feeling on intensive modeling is that Tesla is further and further away from "normal" making our ability to model all sorts of costs increasingly more difficult. I wouldn't mind it as a starting point, but I do wonder about the intellectual property rights of it.�
Aug 8, 2016
DaveT �
Aug 8, 2016
AlMc Thanks Dave and Andrea. I put a link on the ST thread Dave.
Most revealing for me is that the analysts get private calls after the CC�
Aug 8, 2016
Crowded Mind Dave and Andrea, that was fantastic. Thank you so much. I hope we'll see another one in the future.�
Aug 8, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Thank you, that was very enlightening and enjoyable. "So, what did you do yesterday evening?". "I watched an 80 minute interview with a former financial analyst."�
Aug 8, 2016
DaveT I think the "private calls" ought to be recorded and made public. That would make things more fair.�
Aug 8, 2016
DaveT These are public companies with public stock that's regulated by the SEC. And it's not like 30 years ago when it was difficult to record a phone call. It's 2016, and recording and posting a phone call to the Internet is super easy.
Also, as an investor, and even more so as a larger investor community, we can pick up a lot during phone calls to test the sincerity/honesty of the management. This makes a big difference in our investment decisions.
Closed doors (and private calls) for large investors and company management should be a thing of the archaic past. Arghh.�
Aug 8, 2016
Cosmacelf The analysts who have private calls need to get paid guys. Their research is very much accessible to anyone. All you had to do, in this case, was open up a brokerage account at Dougherty & Co.�
Aug 8, 2016
ggies07 That was great DaveT, thanks for doing this! I love how energetic she still is about the company, really shows her passion......some good quotes from her in there but it's too late for me to find the ones I like. Haha�
Aug 8, 2016
JRP3 However they are given free access that we are not.�
Aug 8, 2016
techmaven I think they should take questions from individual investors... find some way to pick questions, say with top upvotes and then answer the top 25. Can be in written Q&A format.�
Aug 8, 2016
NJ Plugin Thanks Dave and Andrea. Great interview.�
Aug 8, 2016
DaveT I don't think it's that simple. I dare you to try to open an account at Dougherty & Co, then report back to us what's their minimum portfolio balance requirement.�
Aug 8, 2016
Alketi Wow, thank you for the interview. Great job. She's a rock star.�
Aug 8, 2016
GoTslaGo Excellent interview, as always! Thanks! And thanks again for recording so we can watch later!�
Aug 8, 2016
Sparky Informative and entertaining. Enlightening description of the analysts sitting in on the CCs and asking questions as they adjust their models to the answers. It's clear Andrea James does her homework and has an excellent noise filter.
Thanks DaveT.�
Aug 9, 2016
MitchJi IMO periodic personalized factory tours (probably including a personalized guided 2-3 hour tour with the opportunity to ask questions) are much more important than the 15 minute call backs 4x or 5x per year.
Tesla and Elon Musk are �years ahead of the competition�, says billionaire TSLA investor Ron Baron
Billionaire Ron Baron Says Tesla Will Become One Of World's Largest Companies
�
Aug 9, 2016
Dwdnjck Thanks so much Dave.�
Aug 9, 2016
EinSV Terrific interview -- thanks DaveT and Andrea.�
Aug 9, 2016
Cattledog Yes! She offered to share it a couple times, and two different spreadsheets if I recall. Would be illuminating.
Thx to both Dave and Andrea!�
Aug 9, 2016
mrdoubleb hmm didn't think of this earlier, but knowing the level of detail of her research into Tesla's battery technology, I would have been interested in her estimate of current cell and pack level cost for Tesla. I know we talk about this a lot, but now have the feeling she has so much more data than we do.�
Aug 9, 2016
aznt1217 Probably only on screen. I doubt she would share it because it's proprietary. Chances are her team who is still covering TSLA at Doughtery is using it still. Dave, thanks for doing this. I thought the tidbit about her test ride in the S when she was pregnant was hilarious.�
Aug 9, 2016
LargeHamCollider Really great! Thank you Dave and Andrea I learned a lot!�
Aug 9, 2016
Rarity Thanks to Andrea and Dave for taking the time to do this. Enlightening.�
Aug 9, 2016
ItsNotAboutTheMoney If anyone in future writes The Spreadsheet, that'll be to what they're referring.�
Aug 9, 2016
Cosmacelf Thanks Dave for doing this, was interesting. Did you ask any questions that were suggested here?�
Aug 9, 2016
austinEV Hmm, perhaps I need some life coaching. My life plan consists largely of making money on TSLA. What life coach is equipped to advise on that?�
Aug 9, 2016
kenliles I think John Peterson maintains an active list of therapists for that affliction...�
Aug 9, 2016
austinEV I am only half kidding. She must charge less as a life coach than a stock analyst.�
Aug 9, 2016
kbeckley Really enjoyed the interview Dave and want to say thanks for Tesla Weekly and all your other contributions.�
Aug 9, 2016
hobbes This was great. I don�t remember listening to every word of such a long interview ever before. Both very informative and entertaining at the same time. It is not often that you have such knowledgeable people who are completely free to talk without restrictions. Thanks to much!
Actually, after hearing this I actually do not have the feeling we as retail investors are so far behind. It didn�t seem to me that AJ�s way of thinking about Tesla was so different about what we do as a collective here with croud sourced research. Sure, she has had access to many more details and way more time to invest, but at least if you are in for the long term, I believe you can do fine with the info from TMC and other free sources. Thanks everyone for contributing.�
Aug 9, 2016
JRP3 Indeed, and it's often quite obvious that we here are much more informed about Tesla than some of the so called "professional" analysts.�
Aug 9, 2016
austinEV If we had a really good model, then you could do reasonable best-case, middle case, worst case analyses. Or just monte carlo simulations. If nothing else it would help a long sleep at night. I have my own simple models but some of the problems I could never solve it sounds like she did, like the cost of the materials. And that spreadsheet presumably reflects a few *years* of polishing from the after-the-call meetings.�
Aug 9, 2016
lorih I truly understand everyone's frustration here, but honestly, I have gone to the annual meeting every year, and Elon takes X questions from private shareholders and 95% is a complete waste of time. They ask questions Elon has previously stated in public talks, on conference calls and Twitter. Not all investors are as informed as the TMC community, and the vetting process would be a nightmare for Tesla.
Not to mention lawsuits when one individual investor starts to cry that he didn't get private time with Elon and that SEC rules require all info to be shared equally with investors.�
Aug 9, 2016
dakh DaveT thank you for making this happen!�
Aug 9, 2016
lorih Thanks DaveT and Andrea this was amazing. To those asking about spreadsheets. DaveT has been very opening to sharing his analysis in the past. I am sure a couple of you here could join forces to share info and refine an analysis (I think I hear AustinEV volunteering in my inner ear)�
Aug 9, 2016
dakh They get paid for analysis. Of publicly available information, no less. Not for being buddies with a PR guy who knows sugar.�
Aug 9, 2016
Fallenone I'm most interested in their cost too. Based on my coarse model, battery pack cost is no longer the "lowest hanging fruit" to reduce COGS for Model S and Model X. But I don't know how the other costs can be reduced and at what rate depending on what parameter (production rate seems the obvious one though, based on the Learning Curve theory).�
Aug 9, 2016
tinm Tesla Impossible II plot:
Your mission, Dave, should you decide to accept it, is to seek out and get a commitment from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley to do a similar Google Hangout interview. As always, should you or Adam be captured and sent to Seeking Alpha, the Director will disavow any knowledge of this mission. Good luck, Dave. This message will self-destruct in 5 seconds.�
Aug 9, 2016
neroden I do.
Indeed. That's not straightfoward to research.
�
Aug 9, 2016
lorih When I was working in instrumentation COGS was pretty stable, changing little in each quarter, but given that Elon says Tesla is constantly replacing parts, re-engineering, and bringing goods in-house (on the order of hundreds of parts per year), the COGS are a moving target which requires some level of reliable baseline, plus reasonable "fudge factor" on COGS reduction from continual improvements.
Not trivial�
Aug 9, 2016
tander Thanks Dave and Andrea for taking the time, learned a few new things, and was reminded of some old ones. Thanks especially to Andrea for her top notch questions and analysis.�
Aug 9, 2016
electricity Watched the video twice. I feel I understand Tesla alot more now. Thanks�
Aug 10, 2016
Robertj Many thanks Dave for organising this event
Thanks to Andrea for sharing her knowledge
Andreas comments give me more comfort with my investment in Tesla ,
many thanks Andrea !
Also it has given a lot more context to the knowledge that the big players have over the general public
Part of that is the huge amount of research and competitor knowledge that Andrea obtain through her own endeavours,
the rest being the added information provided by Listed companies to large brokerages�
Aug 11, 2016
palmer_md I see a lot of folks upset about the private phone calls. Yes, it is a bit unfair, but the feeling I got from listening to her is that the real source of the data she got to analyze did not come from Tesla directly, but from her "mosaic" of information based on her "inside" guys. She was listening to the guys talking at the bar across from the factory, the guys who work at the suppliers, the competitors and other competing suppliers (who may not even supply to Tesla, but offer something similar to what Tesla is purchasing from their competitor). By cross checking Tesla's information with all these other outside sources she was able to create a mosaic of information to confirm what Tesla was saying they were going to do, and get reasonable estimates for all the costs that went into the process.�
Aug 11, 2016
neroden Very interesting video. My favorite bit was the robot supplier saying that Tesla broke more of their robots than any other customer...�
Aug 21, 2016
brian45011 ev-enthusiast posted her analysis from June 15, 2015
"ev-enthusiast, Tuesday at 4:49 PM
http://andreajames.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/fd0d1ff7-dcb4-4000-9254-cd7b1b2b7c3a.pdf
Nice read."
Her predictions for the last four quarters were a bit off;
_________Dougherty________Actual
_____EPS___Av Shares____EPS___Av Shares
3Q15---+$0.31----126.4MM___($0.58)___129.0MM
4Q15__+$0.95----126.4MM___($0.87)___131.1MM
1Q16__+$0.61---126.4MM___($0.57)___132.7MM
2Q16__+$0.77---126.4MM___($1.06)___140.0MM
Probably the call back did not help her in anticipating problems with the Model X.�
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