May 14, 2013
Citizen-T So, here we are again. Elon postpones the Supercharger announcement to next week and claims there is something else in store for us this week.
What could it be? To be honest I have no idea. But, despite the fact that I have a life (really I do!) I spent some time thinking about this, and I came up with a theory. Vet it for me please.
On May 8th, in celebration of knock-out earnings (an event we are all quite familiar with) Elon tweeted:
This tweet was mostly met with praise, but one snarky fellow couldn't help but deliver an underhanded dig:
To which Elon replied:
I noticed this at the time it happened, but didn't think much of it. I certainly didn't think that anything was imminent. After all, while Tesla is in a pretty good spot, they don't have the cash to be knocking off that government loan.
But, then the short squeeze came. Oh man did it come. With it, a ton of short seller money was poured into the share price, inflating it. Making it artificially high I'd argue. There are calls from analysts and investors to do an offering, to capitalize on the spike before it is gone. But on the conference call Elon said there was no plan for an offering, and if he were to do it, it would be as insurance against a hiccup, not to pay down debt.
I don't think this week's announcement is an offering. If they weren't even talking about it a week ago, then the chances of them pulling it together in time to do it this week is very unlikely. There's a lot of paperwork that goes into these things. Still, Elon's twitter conversation kept nagging at me.
Then, when I was out running tonight, a thought hit me---Elon's options! We were all over this weeks ago when the stock was in the 40s. Remember, before the financing announcement? Remember how we were thinking Elon would exercise those options he had just earned by making the company profitable? We thought that he was going to turn around and pay off the loan? But, remember how the math didn't quite work out? Remember how there wasn't quite enough money there to pay it all off?
Well, the stock has doubled since then. I think there is enough money now.
Wouldn't that be great? Right now the stock price is inflated, no doubt. All the shorts that have been all over Tesla from day one are rolling around on the floor in pain. A whole new batch of "smarter" shorts have taken their place (remember there are no shares available for shorting right now) betting that this thing has topped, ready to grab all that money that the last set of shorts lost. Then here comes Elon, and kicks them while they are down.
Not only does he pay off the loan without diluting shareholders---he changes the valuation entirely---perhaps making the current stock price a perfectly justifiable valuation (imagine, a debt free Tesla!). He would have effectively used the shorts own money to eliminate Tesla's debt. Now that is just embarrassing. Finally, that whole new set of shorts that took their place? Yeah, time for them to run for the hills.
It sure makes for a good story. I don't know if this is what is going to happen or not, but man---it would be EPIC.�
May 14, 2013
nikwest +1
But would The math be right? Is it possible? And After all it's Elon's personal options. Would he do that? That's quite more than putting your money where your mouth is.�
May 14, 2013
AudubonB Can you pencil out his tax consequences for exercising those options? No - no one except his tax man and very slightly possibly Mr Musk can - but they would certainly be One Ugly B***h.
Other than that, you've posited a lovely possibility. Yowza.
Try this on for size: Doesn't the government also have a warrant for a gazillion shares at $8? (Answer is, yes, they do....but I don't remember how many gazillions it is). Were that to be exercised, in addition to your fine scenario, then (1) all sorts of hot air goes pfffft out of the naysayers wrt government intervention, and (2) capital stock goes up nicely.�
May 14, 2013
Citizen-T You know, any other CEO and I'd say "no way". But Elon...yeah...I think he'd do it. He is really after these shorts. He wants them bankrupt and disgraced.
Cramer sees it, Elon wants their heads: Cramer: Behind Tesla Furious Advance
It's not like he wouldn't benefit from it. The move would make his other shares far more valuable. It's really an "investment".
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Sh*t you are right. And that means they can also take those warrants off their balance sheet. Remember the got to remove a ton of liability from their sheet this quarter because of the loan payment they made. Imagine if they could take it all off.
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Also, Tesla would get some cash from the deal. Elon does need to buy those shares for like $6.60. I think it was close to $50M for Tesla.�
May 14, 2013
c041v I just skimmed the 10-K and could only find 5100 shares being warranted to the DOE @ $7.94, which is a far cry from a gazillion. I must be missing something.
I did also notice that the last quarter of the second 4% they awarded to Elon becomes available after the successful delivery of the 10,000th Model S.
Citizen might be onto something...
edit: Further digging suggests 3,090,111 shares under the DOE warrant (pg. 106 in the 10-K)? This is not my strong suit�
May 15, 2013
Citizen-T If I were Elon, I'd happily pay a few hundred million dollars to not have to ever hear that my company is being propped up by the government again. :biggrin:�
May 15, 2013
nikwest This DOE loan seems to be a real American night mare. I guess we here in 'socialist' Europe don't quite understand. After all it is a loan and not free money. Btw. I never heard anybody complain about the 7500$ tax return...
But I agree it sounds like repaying the loan ASAP through short's money would make a great story. Actually an awesome story
�
May 15, 2013
Citizen-T In good times it wouldn't have been such a big deal. The problem is right now people are hurting (you know, by American standards) and they want to blame someone other than themselves. The fact that Tesla's loan wouldn't cover the toilet paper bill for our federal government is lost on most.�
May 15, 2013
Johan This would be a wonderful turn of events, for all the reasons discussed so far in this thread. I too would be very eager to know the tax concequences. In effect Elon would infuse about $50M with his options excercise and then he would sell enough of the stock on the open market to raise another $450M which he would then give to Tesla??? That is a cash gift? Or would another way to do be that instead of him giving the money to Tesla, they could instead issue som new stock at the current price which he then buys from Tesla (a lot fewer share than when he buys them at $6).�
May 15, 2013
brianman Then you haven't been looking hard enough. It's been a political football and has been criticized on this forum (somewhat) periodically.�
May 15, 2013
haid This week's announcement: 10K Model S produced
I think it is far more likely that Elon will release that Tesla has produced and perhaps delivered 10,000 Model S sedans.
I read in the forums some time ago that Elon gets some sort of stock option grant tied to producing 10K vehicles. And think about it, they produced 2K+ vehicles last year, and nearly 5K vehicles in Q1. So anytime now, they should be crossing the 10K threshold.
It also explains why Elon changed the order of the last two announcements. They just got there about a week early.�
May 15, 2013
vgrinshpun Linking my post on 10,000th car and Elon's associated options:
Upcoming Announcements - Page 2
Doing the math, in order to pay off the whole $495M Elon would need to sell close to all of the option shares (approx. 6.2M of them)assuming $80 pe share average gain.
This would be brilliant move by EM, and excellent guess by Citizen-T! BTW, this might have already had happened, given yesterday's heavy volume and and drop from $97 to $83.
Buckle you seat belts, starting next week, we might not see sub $100 price ever again.�
May 15, 2013
FVO If this would be true it would be the trade of the year!�
May 15, 2013
haid If true, someone should print up a "three dimensional chess" champion card for Elon
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The actual EM boast is: "Business is like a multidimensional probabilistic chessboard. The rules aren't set, and the same moves don't always make you win. A lot of people can be really good in a set-piece battle; my biggest differentiating skill is I can invent new pieces."
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_19/b4227076914379.htm�
May 15, 2013
adiggs I don't see Elon giving the money to Tesla as a gift (if for no other reason, giving money to a company actually sounds like it could be painful). But I imagine it could be arranged to be the next best thing to a gift - Elon buys newly issued Tesla shares in a private placement. Maybe even prices them to be real friendly (simple math - 4M new shares @ $100/share plus the ~$50M from the option exercise). That's the next best thing to a gift and accomplishes the end result we're discussing.�
May 15, 2013
Norse I really do hope so. And I hope they use the Money to expand in that case. Tesla have they superior Technology in the world, and should produce more cars than 21k cars a year. If someone dont bring Money to the table to make that possible, its really weird to me. If Musk does this, he will get the Money back.�
May 15, 2013
Rla Wow, sounds a bit too exceptional to ever be true. But let's hope Elon thinks like Citizen-T�
May 15, 2013
Johan I agree: From Elon's POV it would not be a gift but an investment, but from the IRS's point of view just giving the money would qualify as a gift I presume. Hence your's and my suggestion of an issuing of stock at (or above) market price as compensation for the cash infusion.�
May 15, 2013
aznt1217 Definitely onto something, but lets not get our expectations to high like all of us do during these announcements. Under promise and over deliver per se...
I don't think it's a stretch because he already plowed his money into the company when both his companies were on the brink of failure, so I'm sure he can do it when they are doing well. Getting rid of the payments, monthly interest, and stigma attached to Tesla and other companies who took loans from the DOE just might be worth it. The narrative would be pretty incredible and great PR for Tesla Motors.
A move like this would benefit future consumers as well. That personal guarantee comes to mind.
Well... Here's to hoping.�
May 15, 2013
Cattledog adiggs - Thanks, I was looking for the right mechanism and that sounds like it, as long as it's within regulations.
I remember, perhaps an interview (60 Minutes), where Elon was asked about the federal loan and he said to the reporter, "I personally guarantee it", to which the incredulous reporter said something like, "You personally guarantee it?!?" And Elon said, "Yes, I'll guarantee to repay it myself" (paraphrasing, not quoting).
This idea would come full circle on that. It's in his DNA, to do things no one has done before. I'm all in to this concept.�
May 15, 2013
Blurry_Eyed Here are some speculation as to alternative mechanisms to help Elon raise the cash without exercising his options or selling his stock (and thus mitigating the tax hit he might take in such a sale):
I revisited the June 12, 2012 form 10-Q from Tesla to revisit Elon's option package and ownership interest at the time. Based on what I found, it seemed as if Elon had a total ownership potential of 29% in Tesla. 20% is through options and 9% is through direct investment. (Anyone out there care to double check this for me?)
The direct ownership at today's market cap would be valued at about $810,000,000. What if Elon decided to pledge $465,000,000 of that direct ownership interest as collateral and worked with Goldman Sachs (who in the past has loaned him funds based on his ownership in Tesla, also detailed in the 10-Q). In turn, GS would give him a low interest loan and he would provide cash to Tesla to completely pay off the DOE loan and get a huge monkey off his and Tesla's back. From a tax standpoint, it might make sense for him to do a loan rather than an outright sale. Long-Term capital gains rates are around 23% now with the Medicare surcharge. Given today's interest rate environment, he might be able to get a loan rate in the 4% or so range.
By my calculations, over the past few months, Elon's stake in Tesla (assuming he has 29% of the company) has gone from about $1,160,000 to $2,610,000. Also his stake in Solar City has increased tremendously as well. He could be feeling quite flush with cash right now and based on his longer-term aspirations, paying of the DOE loan would be a way to continue moving Tesla forward. It would no longer have the interest and principle payments due to the DOE. Also I think in terms of market cap and hurting the shorts, it would push the stock higher, especially if Elon could engineer it so he doesn't have to sell shares on the open market or have to do a private placement to raise the cash. This is a WAG, but I estimate that Elon's personal net worth due to his ownership in Tesla, Solar City and SpaceX to be in the neighborhood now north of $5b. At that lofty net worth figure, $465,000,000 would not be a big stretch for him to come up with.
If he found it difficult to get a $465m private loan, he could do some combination of private placement sale and a personal loan to pay off some or all of the DOE loan.
Also forgive my ignorance here, but I'm not even sure if it's legal for an individual shareholder in publicly traded company (even if it is one of the primary owners) to simply give the company money to pay off a loan without an exchange of equity or debt.
There is speculation that he could exercise his options to give the company the cash that way, but it doesn't seem like the math would work out to pay off the DOE loan in that kind of transaction. Plus, to retain the greatest ownership interest it seems as if using his direct ownership shares (whether they be pledged as collateral or transferred in a private placement) would be the most efficient way for him to keep his maximum ownership interest. Ex. If he has options priced at $31 a share, his net cash out (Before taxes) from them at $80 would be $49 a share. But his direct ownerships shares would net out (before taxes) $80. Thus he would not need to sell or pledge as many direct ownership shares to generate the same amount of cash.�
May 15, 2013
Norse
He really should do this. Will definently be good for shareholders, but also most important, get more of thoose amazing cars out on the market. Cant belive they should just sell 20k ish cars a year. For people knowing the european market, sky is the limit!�
May 15, 2013
Bgarret New S Buyers
If Elon can find a way to pull this off, it pokes the shorts in the eyes, gets great free press and removes detractors/distractions and has the additional benefit of providing a large number of potential new S and X reservations from longs that profit. It wouldn't be substantive for a volume car maker, but for TESLA, it could be a positive feedback loop.�
May 15, 2013
yobigd20 Perhap's it is this, which is today: http://www.stuff.tv/news/life-etc/rumour-mill/tesla-to-reveal-self-driving-car-at-google-io�
May 15, 2013
deonb
Doubt it. Elon on the 7th:
"Am a fan of Larry, Sergey & Google in general, but self-driving cars comments to Bloomberg were just off-the-cuff. No big announcement here"�
May 15, 2013
ahaer That just meant that his comment that was being quoted AT THAT TIME were not meant to be a big announcement...
He could make an autopilot announcement today and that wouldn't make his previous statement untrue...
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Paying off the loan early is not necessary. The warrants that the DOE had were only valid if Tesla took more than 5 years to payback the loan. One of the main reasons that Tesla announced paying off the loan early was to invalidate those warrants. In the 10-K they were able to remove the liability of these warrants from there books which helped them become GAAP profitable.�
May 15, 2013
Curt Renz Any stock options exercised by Elon would be at an agreed call price far lower than the current market price. The company treasury would issue newly created shares to him, and he would pay the treasury the low contracted call price. That would increase the amount of cash available to the company. Because Elon is not expected to sell shares until well into the future, his shares are not considered part of the float. Therefore, his new shares should not be considered dilutive to the float. Again, the cash addition to the treasury would not be for the current market value of the shares.�
May 15, 2013
vgrinshpun This is understood. The question is what would keep Elon from selling enough shares from his grant of 6,711,912 (excersized at $6.63) on the open market to get $495M for the repayment of the loan, if he wants to do this?
As I've posted above (#12) that trade could even have happend yesterday, given huge volume and drop from $97 to $83. Am I missing anything?�
May 15, 2013
treehugger350 Did some math cause your statement intrigued me.
There's about 2.8 million employees working for the federal government. Say a roll of TP is $1, and you need a new roll every seven days for every person. 3 million people x $1 per roll x 52 rolls per year = $156 million per year in toilet paper costs. So not quite $465 million but actually not too far off.�
May 15, 2013
gaswalla I love the thoughts, but we on TMC really make these announcements out to be much bigger than they ever were intended, and then we get disappointed.
To avoid disappointment, I say we're going to hear about the 10k vehicles produced.
Anything bigger will be a pleasant surprise.�
May 15, 2013
Curt Renz If Elon receives personal cash by selling his shares in the open market, and then pays off the company's loan with his own money, that would be a gift from him to the company. Meanwhile, his selling of newly created shares would dilute the float.�
May 15, 2013
ppl I don't think you are hopefully he is not. The stock would rise on that news enough to make for any loss of his and the political bs will disappear. Could proceed to gen 3 quicker.�
May 15, 2013
ModelS8794 I believe the most efficient way to accomplish this, if Elon had it in his mind to make this kind of grand gesture, would be to reprice the option grant, such that it is struck at the current price rather than his original $6.60/sh or whatever it was. He could then exercise that option grant and receive those shares, and Tesla would have about $570 million.
I find this enters the realm of possibilty only because we know how strong Elon's passion is for the cause of sustainable transport. but even with Elon, I find the likelihood of this taking place to be infinitesimal. It amounts to a $550 million philanthropic donation to a for-profit company. Does he even have $$550 million extra cash lying around? Building rockets ain't cheap you know...�
May 15, 2013
Norse well, maybe its more of an advice, in a hope that Elon is reading this�
May 15, 2013
callmesam +100
Nothing worse than setting your expectations too high. I like setting probabilities better.
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Nothing worse than setting your expectations too high. I like setting probabilities better.
87% Tesla announces 10K Model S produced/delivered
PRO: 10K cars produced was already updated on the tesla.com website (but included ~2500 Roadsters in count)
4 Weeks later they announce 10,00th car and production rates at 500/week.
CON: Not big enough to bring up as an announcement on it's own, but this is Elon so of course it may come up in context of bigger announcement.
5% Battery swap
PRO: Has discussed swap in 2011, 2012 and on the recent conference call and 10K as coming in the "near future".
CON: Member photos and observations make swap not time efficient.
3% New financial offering/share buy-back. Money is used to substantially expand their offering OR to pay back GOV'T Loans early.
PRO: It relieves one of the biggest gripes from conservatives. Changes the conversation from deadbeat to rags-to-riches story.
Could speed the growth of factory buildout/superchargers/service center/showrooms
CON: Improves their balance sheet, share price but wastes money otherwise put into the product for marginal better coverage.
Changes the pace of growth for additional risk. System doesn't have time to mature, growing pains and uncertainty are possible.
3% Aluminum/Water recharge/ you buy/rent/taking with you/put in the frunk
PRO: Tesla has patents in this area.
Would change where people would need to live in order to buy this car immediately for long-distance trips.
CON: HUGE technology change from the current battery form.
Hardware retrofit would be expensive.
Empty cubby space in Frunk fits the second motor for Model S all-wheel-drive even better.
1% Unknown - enough said
1% New features/Autopilot testing
PRO: Secret menu found that has parking & lane assist potential.
Just talked about Google Autopilot.
CON: Said he was talking off-the-cuff
Elon said would require new hardware
1% Supercharging increase in # and speed (99% coming soon)
PRO: Telegraphed for the past 6 months.
9 Superchargers in US with 16-25 more added within the month. Normal, IL, TX (1-3), CA (2-3), FL (2-4), CO (1-2) Southeast (3-5) , OR (1-2) , WA(1-2)
First international Superchargers in Canada (1-3) and Norway (1-3)
Step-up speeds have been discussed. Assumptions at 120kWh higher is possible
CON: Waiting for next week.�
May 15, 2013
zeron I think yall are vastly overestimating the impact this loan has on Teslas business. I do not believe a from-zero entrepeneur like Elon would approve of spending 400+M$ just to get some loan paid off, a loan they are already making accelerated payments on.
Think of how many businesses you could bootstrap with 400M$.�
May 15, 2013
Norse Well, doesnt seem that there will be an announcement this week. Nothing on "events and presentation" on teslamotors.com. I just pray that Elon invests, he will get the money back in a week!�
May 15, 2013
Johan Tesla Motors - Automatic shelf registration statement of securities of well-known seasoned issuers
As far as I can understand this is just a prepration document?
"(4) In addition to any securities that may be registered hereunder, we are also registering an indeterminate number of shares of common stock as may be issued upon conversion or exercise of the securities issued directly hereunder. No separate consideration will be received for any shares of common stock so issued upon conversion or exercise."
So this is in preparation of Elon's options exercise, the first part of his CEO program???�
May 15, 2013
ShortSlaver I have insider knowledge that Apple Computer is holding a pretty big internal all-hands meeting this Friday morning. A fairly significant one - the content of which is unknown.
Could Apple be making a significant investment in TSLA? Elon has eluded to this before that a non-auto manufacturer could get onboard. So not a sellout, but a partnership to invest heavily into TSLA from Apple (they have gobs of cash obviosuly) that would pay off their debt, give Apple a stake and form a partnership where Apple creates software and electronics for Tesla.
Now, all hands meetings happen at companies often and this is unlikely. But since we're the speculating types...�
May 15, 2013
Johan Now this is the kind of speculation I LOVE!�
May 15, 2013
Norse Haha, I love this!�
May 15, 2013
gaswalla Citizen-T: you are an outstanding sleuth. great work on figuring this out. I apologize for asking everyone to lower their expectations, you are totally correct based on the recent announcement.
oh yeah: here's the statement:
"Tesla Motors Announces Offerings of Common Stock and Convertible Senior Notes
Elon Musk to Lead Common Stock Offering; Tesla Intends to Pay Off Department of Energy Loan With Interest"�
May 15, 2013
Johan Citizen-T: Outstanding precognition!
The aggregate gross proceeds of the offerings, including the options granted to the underwriters, and the private placement is expected to be approximately $830 million. Tesla intends to use the net proceeds from the offerings to prepay Tesla's outstanding loan from the United States Department of Energy, pay the cost of convertible note hedge transactions and for general corporate purposes.�
May 15, 2013
Zaxxon Citizen-T: Kudos.�
May 15, 2013
Don Shin Agreed- that was some *amazing* predicting/prognosticating! :biggrin:�
May 15, 2013
Blurry_Eyed +1!�
May 15, 2013
hershey101 Once again TMC is ahead of the curve. I had bought some May $90 calls before close yesterday expecting to take advantage of the "tuesday" effect as the stock gaped up today. It didn't move as much as I would have liked, and I could have sold today the $90s for 2.5 giving me a 50% profit, but I decided to keep them because of the speculation on this thread. I'm so glad I did, those calls are now in the money, and still have 2 days to expiration, and the IV is through the roof, I think I'll be very happy when the market opens tomorrow morning.�
May 15, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I haven't checked the VIN data, but projecting forward from where we were May 1st, the 10,000th should have been delivered.. yesterday. This theory looks better than my thought that he was moving the swap announcement ahead in line.�
May 15, 2013
vfx You were so close! Elon's(Tesla) is paying back the loan witha new offering!�
May 15, 2013
mlascano Kudos to Citizen-T! Great insight!�
May 15, 2013
Jcmason Awesome call!
Wow, what a totally awesome call, Citizen-T! You're the man. Your logic was right on the money. I'm almost as amazed at your reading of the tea leaves as I am that Elon and team were able to pull this off so fast and manage it so well.�
May 15, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Holy Moly!
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Just wow. Great job CT. I logged in to try and figure out what was driving the after hours spike and the first thread I checked had the answer before it happened, lol.�
May 15, 2013
jeff_adams So here's a question I have. Could Elon be setting up bidding war for a large chunk of Tesla? We know Tesla is red hot right now, so maybe it's s good time to pit Apple against Google (or some one else).�
May 15, 2013
ShortSlaver Yeah, I think so. After relieving themselves of the loan they're free to sell as Elon and others aren't required keep certain share thresholds. In addition they just doubled their cash on-hand potentially. So, it's definitely a sellers market in terms of their position.
I don't see Google going for it as much as Apple. Apple has loads more cash than Google and is desperate for a splash.�
May 15, 2013
jomo25 Citizen-T nailed it.�
May 15, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I am always skeptical of these kind of moonshot guesses. But Elon *does* specialize in moon shots after all.
Still, taking DOE off of the books means the Feds wouldn't object. But my understanding is that Elon also has legal agreements with various investment entities that also require him to be the CEO. However, I gotta imagine those guys would jump at a major investment, or takeover by Apple.
Sill, I wouldn't give this more than a 5% chance of happening, just on general principles. But it freak the major automakers out in a huge way if it happened. And its exactly the kind of thing Apple needs. Call it 20%.
If I keep writing I'll keep convincing myself, so its time to stop now :frown:�
May 15, 2013
Soflason CT... wow, well done! Good call, this has the stock moving big time...�
May 15, 2013
ShortSlaver It's just too perfect. Apple has more CASH than the top USA automakers market cap combined. They have been a little too quiet lately and they very recently hired John Morrell (a top robotics guy, set to lead Yale's Center for Innovation but now at Apple) not too long ago. Imagine what Apple could do for UI and computer/network integrations and more importantly, super charging stations. Tesla has great ideas for these stations but Apple could actually finance the gap fill on them.
With Apple in the game things start happening a lot more sooner than later for Tesla too.
But you're right, you can write all day about it and keep convincing yourself.�
May 15, 2013
bhuwan APPL doesn't have the $$$ to buy TSLA - all of their money is tied up overseas and they aren't bringing it to the US to avoid taxes. (Cook has repeatedly asked for a Corporate Tax Holiday)
Moreover, they issued a bond to pay the dividends.
So no, APPL isn't going to buy TSLA.
Just my opinion anyways�
May 15, 2013
deonb
APPL can always get another loan to buy TSLA. Maybe secured by the DOE�
May 15, 2013
bhuwan Lol�
May 15, 2013
Citizen-T It didn't play out the way I posited, but I'll take it. This was a far more complex transaction than I envisioned, but it achieved the same outcome. I'm impressed that they pulled it together so quickly.�
May 15, 2013
Cattledog Citizen-T - Great call!
Umm, what should we expect next?!?�
May 15, 2013
Citizen-T Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]�
May 15, 2013
ppl Good call. I don't see battery swapping coming. I take care of my car would not want someone else's battery. When you buy a gas grill you get a brand new tank. You take it to get filled and they swap it for a rusted scraped pos. trivial example but I wouldn't swap. He is so precise in his statements and he did say anywhere in country�
May 15, 2013
kenliles I don't think they did-�
May 15, 2013
kevin99 Such an intriguing turn of event!
Wow, what can I say? This is truly EPIC!
I hope one day someone in Hollywood would make an epic movie out of this!
You have my solute, Sir!
�
May 15, 2013
Citizen-T Read the thread. We are trying to address this (though haven't come to a final solution yet).�
May 15, 2013
mitch672 I think it's time for another update to the "Who Killed the Electric Car", and "Revenge of the Electric Car", maybe this one should be named: "Tesla: Dominance of the Electric Car", as by the time the rest of the lumbering auto industry wakes up from their comas, there will be no way to even compete with them, how can you compete with a company giving away free energy to all of their customers for long distance travel? Brilliant engineering, financing and execution, they have it all.�
May 16, 2013
TD1 Ironman 4 - Crushing OPEC�
May 17, 2013
neroden And to hold a certain amount of stock. I think both Daimler and the UAE guys have such agreements, IIRC (this is off the top of my head)?�
May 17, 2013
nygiants242 Am I the only one that thinks the SuperCharger announcement really won't be some EPIC, FUTURISTIC announcement like Musk has been alluding to (i.e. charging faster than you could fill a gas tank)? I really think it will be some standard update on the, perhaps accelerated, rollout of SuperChargers across the country, including potentially an expanded rollout plan. Musk could simply have been tweeting about a future technology that will continue to make EVs more and more fit for everyday people - not something in the immediate future.�
May 17, 2013
gaswalla next week is the supercharger announcement which is probably 120KW charging in lots more locations... probably giving ability to drive coast to coast
the last announcement is, i think, the ultra-fast charging announcement which many feel is battery swapping�
May 17, 2013
Sans Gas Wouldn't take much to see an acceleration since nothing has been happening lately.�
May 17, 2013
Citizen-T Given how they have focused on unveiling routes, not locations. I suspect what we will see is the coast-to-coast chain of chargers opened.�
May 17, 2013
deonb Sure. If he wants to lose all credibility in twitter, and give up his ability to punish the shorts at will. I somehow don't think he would do that.
Either way, he set himself up for getting questions on that, so even if he doesn't specially unveil it, he'll have to address the questions. The market is definitely not going to be happy with a: "Just trust me on this".�
May 17, 2013
Jcmason I agree. I've had a picture in my mind's eye since the infamous Broder weekend, of Elon, JB, & Co. getting together around a white board in their war room to brainstorm how to address all the major objections and negative perceptions in preparation for the scaling up of the operations. I believe they walked out of that session with a series of steps to be implemented and communicated, many of which we've seen rolled out with good success over the past few weeks (leasing, service improvements, manufacturing efficiencies, etc.). The one remaining objection, and potentially the biggest in terms of the broader acceptance for the non-enthusiast, is the question of range and specifically the need for a fast and pervasive charging network for longer trips. I believe what we'll see next week is a combination of faster SuperCharging and a significant number of new sites across the country. With a little "Elon math", this would let them claim that it's as fast as stopping to fill a tank of gas (average 12 mins). I would also not be surprised if they didn't announce a partnership with a major hotel or restaurant chain (Starbucks/McD, Hilton, etc.) to enable more widespread overnight charging. Next week, we should also see a software update with the the improvements to the navigation system allowing you to navigate easily to charging stations/SuperChargers, followed by another cool software feature (no idea what) that's right under our noses.
Personally, I still don't see the battery swapping program being part of these announcements, as much as I respect Citizen-T's uncanny prognosticating ability (though I'd be happy to be proven wrong on this one).�
May 17, 2013
Citizen-T I don't mind having my theories challenged. Keeps me honest. =)�
May 17, 2013
Jcmason That's why you're my favorite poster on here�
May 17, 2013
Lloyd Maybe Tesla does not want the $$$ in the US. Would it make sense to use the overseas cash to pay for an EU completion facility, Superchargers, and service?? Just thinking......�
May 17, 2013
jcstp Concerning batteryswapping, it could be that Tesla took over the taxi-test in LA! formerly awarded to coda!
Any other batteryswapping is not feasable I guess! Unless Tesla starts leasing it's battery's, and ads batteryswapping to this service!
Leasing the battery lowers the price of the Model S. The car can still Supercharge, and with the swapping-possibility as soon as stations pop up
Maybe ideal service for taxi-fleets?
An additional possitif effect of batteryswap-stations is energystorage! With more and more renewables comming online, the problem becomes where to dump the load!
In some states you already get paid to use electricity! ;-)�
May 17, 2013
Citizen-T Let's take this discussion over here: Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]
- - - Updated - - -
Mods, maybe we should close this thread? The event has happened, not sure there is more to say.�
May 17, 2013
kevin99 CT, I read your original post again. I must say it is fascinating piece of detective work. The way you piece together the clue and evidence together and make such a brilliant prediction just in time is priceless. It is a perfect movie script for a business thriller.
BTW, from the movement of the stock, I don't think the profound significance has been priced in yet. Perhaps it takes a while for what you have analyze to get to the major press and only then it will propel the next round of momentum.�
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